Highway Fatalities Trend Shows its First Uptick in Six Years: Predicting the Firearms Deaths Crossover

50,000

US Highway Fatalities

45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

43,510

42,708

41,259 37,423 33,883 32,999 32,367 34,080

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure A: US Highway Fatalities (vertical axis) increased for the first time in 2012 after six straight years of decline, since 2005, see Ref. [1]. The early estimate for 2012 is 34,080 fatalities (click here). The fatality rate (fatalities per 100 million VMT) will go up, for the first time, from 1.10 in 2011 to 1.16 in 2012.

1. Summary
The early estimates by the NHTSA have confirmed a slight uptick in the US highway traffic fatalities in 2012, after six straight years of declining fatalities. The potential crossover between traffic fatalities and (the rising) firearms death is re-examined in this context. Based on the analysis of the overall
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firearms deaths for the ten-year period 2001-2010, it appears that a crossover is unlikely in the near future. In this context, attention is also called to the alarming hockey stick pattern observed in the firearms-suicide rate graph (similar to the hockey stick graph made famous by climate scientists but this one is destined to be non-controversial). The URGENT need for a National Gun Safety Act, akin to the National Traffic Safety Act of 1966 is also emphasized to curb the unheralded epidemic of firearms-suicides, across all the 50 states (38 out of 44 states have Suicide/Homicide ratios of greater than one).
46,000
44,000

US Highway Fatalities

42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure B: The annual US highway fatalities y plotted versus time t in calendar years. The number of fatalities started decreasing sharply after 2006, with the steepest decline coinciding with the financial crisis of 2008. Notice the nearly constant rate, with the data points for 2007, 2008, and 2009 falling on a near perfect straight line. The slope dy/dt = -3688 fatalities per year (negative sign for decrease). For 2007 and 2008, the change in fatalities was y = (41,259 37,423) = 3836 and for 2008 and 2009, y = (37,423 33,883) = 3540, for the average of 3688 per year (see Table 1 here for NHTSA data).
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Table of Contents
No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Topic Summary Introduction Projecting Firearms Deaths for 2012 The National Gun Safety Act Appendix 1: Analysis of CDC firearms deaths data Appendix 2: The Traffic Fatality Law and the Work Function Appendix 3: The Recent US Highway Fatalities Trends Page No. 1 3 5 10 13 20 29

2. Introduction
The latest figures for traffic-related fatalities are now in. The NHTSA has released its early estimate of traffic fatalities in 2012. An estimated 34,080 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2012. If this projection holds, it would represent the first year-on-year increase in the traffic fatalities since 2005, see the bar graph on page 1. The good news is that this uptick after a six year decline is believed to be due to the improving economy! The change in the slope of the fatalities versus time graph seen in Figure B is quite telling and appears to be clearly superior to the VMT metric (vehicle miles traveled) preferred by the NHTSA. Yes, the economy is improving and one sign of that is more people in the road again and driving back and forth to and from work, texting, driving distracted, and, of course, also dying. Poor fellow, was unemployed for three years, and then got a nice job and now dead! (This is what VMT means.) Never mind, this is not supposed to be a funny piece! But, back in 2009, when the fatalities were decreasing it was also believed to be much more related to a weak economy, with many people out of work, and/or changed driving patterns as a result, see Refs. [2-7]. Many young drivers, a high risk group for traffic fatalities, were believed to be off the road during that time.

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Table 1: Firearms Deaths in the US (2001-2010)

Year Population Overall firearms deaths
31,672 31,347 31,593 31,224 30,896 30,694 29,569 30,136 30,242 29,573 28,874

Firearms homicides
11,078 11,493 12,179 12,632 12,791 12,352 11,624 11,920 11,829 11,348

Firearms suicides
19,392 18,735 18,223 17,352 16,883 17,002 16,750 16,907 17,108 16,869

Suicides to Homicides Ratio (S/H)

1.75 1.63 1.50 1.37 1.32 1.38 1.44 1.42 1.45 1.49

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 1999

308,745,538 306,771,529 304,093,966 301,231,207 298,379,912 295,516,599 292,805,298 290,107,933 287,625,193 284,968,955 279,040,181

Data source: CDC click here http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_us.html It was also widely believed, especially after the gun deaths debate started (following the tragic Newton elementary school killings), that very soon the number of firearms deaths would exceed deaths due to traffic accidents, Refs. [6,7]. A nice graph showing a potential crossover appears in the piece by Caulfield [6]. I even remember a comment, More people are dying in traffic accidents than from guns, but I dont see anyone coming after my car. I am still shaking my head in disbelief at this asinine remark made by one gun enthusiast, who took the opportunity offered in one of the now widely prevalent internet comment boxes to post this message. I hope someone realizes that such downright stupid comments (sorry, may be that person does not even realize this, in that case, am really, really, sorry) do not advance the cause of the gun violence debate in this country, see some thoughtful discussion in Refs. [8-12]. The largely unheralded issue of firearms-suicides is an extremely URGENT one and I have tried to call attention to it in recent articles on this topic; see Refs. [13-18]. The study by Arkadi Gerney, Chelsea Parsons, and Charles Posner (the GPP study), of the Center for American Progress, entitled America Under the Gun, and the comprehensive data on ten leading gun violence indicators compiled therein, has guided me and has been largely responsible for my own foray into this topic over the last two weeks.
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 3. Firearms Deaths in the US

In 38 out of 44 states (for which data is available) the number of firearms suicides exceeds the number of homicides. This should be of immediate and great concern to all of us. This is also supported by the figures I have compiled on the national trends for the 10 year period 2001-2010, see Table 1. The data was obtained from the CDC website, following their query system. As we see from the data for the ten-year period 2001-2010 (this discussion has been relegated to the Appendix to avoid excessive digression), the number of firearms-suicides for the US as a whole (as opposed to the data for 2010 for individual states analyzed in the references cited) far exceeds the number of homicides committed with firearms. In 2010, the latest year for which data is available, there were 19,392 firearms-suicides versus 11,078 firearmshomicides, see also Figures A1 and A2 in the appendix, with the figure captions providing the needed discussion. Sadly, however, it is the highly publicized mass killings such as the Newtown, Connecticut, elementary school killings that engage our attention and drive the entire gun debate and lead to misguided, or failed, attempts at policy making, as we have seen recently with the US Senate failing to reach an agreement on even the most elementary question of background checks. The two solid dots, in blue (see Figure 1), are the extrapolations for 1999 and 2012, made using the linear regression equation y = 236.83t 444,281 where y is the number of firearms deaths and t is the calendar year. The linear regression coefficient (or coefficient of determination), r2 = 0.834 is quite high permitting reliable conclusions, at least for the near future, such as estimating the deaths for 2012 from this trend. Also, the extrapolation can be tested using the actual value for the year 1999 (the earliest year for which data is available at the CDC website). For 1999, the predicted value y = 29,155 is higher than the actual reported value of 28,845.

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35,000

Overall firearms deaths, y

34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 29,000 28,000 1996

y = At + B = 236.83t 444,281 r2 = 0.834

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure 1: The overall firearms deaths in the US for the 10 years 2001-2010, obtained from the CDC website, are plotted here and reveals a nice linear relationship. For 2012, for which no figure is available, as of this writing (May 16, 2013), the predicted value is y = 32,234 firearms deaths overall (homicides, suicides, and all others related to firearms use). In other words, the ten-year firearms death trend implies that there is no crossover likely in 2012. Traffic fatalities have started rising again and the 2012 estimate is 34,080 traffic fatalities. If we continue the extrapolation, the number of firearms deaths will exceed 34,000 only in 2020. By that time, the traffic fatalities would also, probably, have increased since one would like to see the US economy improve but, alas, this also means more deaths on the US highways (as opposed to suicides, see Figure A1 in the appendix, which have also been increasing, and which might reflect the tragic effects of long term unemployment among both the 50+ year olds and the very young out of college who never got a job in this bad economy).
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50,000

US Highway Fatalities

45,000

Traffic Fatalities
40,000

35,000
30,000 25,000 20,000 2000

Firearms Deaths (Overall)

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Time t [Calendar years]

The US highway fatalities have decreased steadily over the years (red squares) and registered a small increase in 2012, the first uptick after six years of decline. The predicted crossover of highway and firearms death did not occur, and has been significantly delayed (and may never occur). In individual state, however, the crossover has been observed as in Michigan, see below. In fact, a cyclical trend in the traffic fatalities has been observed ever since traffic fatalities started their long time decline, after the peak in 1971-1973 period. Short periods of rising traffic deaths are followed by sustained declines with an overall downward trend. This is illustrated in Figure 2, which also includes the 2012 estimate; see also discussion of this point in Ref. [19]. So, like a dog chasing its own tail, it appears that firearms deaths and traffic fatalities are destined, at least for the near future, to keep chasing each other, with no crossover in sight. (The crossover has occurred in individual states like my home state Michigan, for example, see also the discussion by Kelly Kennedy, Ref. [7]. If there is no crossover for the US as a whole, did the crossover really happen? Cheers, this is a deeply philosophical question! ).
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60,000

US Highway Fatalities

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure 2: Traffic Fatalities (vertical axis) in the US plotted versus time t in years showing up and down fluctuations (local peaks and troughs) in the traffic fatalities, with a steady overall decline, since the global peak in 1971-1973. The traffic fatalities went up (see arrow) for the first time in 2012, after a six years of straight decline since 2005 (click here). For further details: see http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/Does-Speed-Kill-Forgotten-USHighway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s

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Michigan Highway Fatalities

1400

1200

Firearms Deaths (Overall)

1000

800

Traffic Fatalities
600 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Time t [Calendar years]

The Michigan data indicates that traffic deaths (red squares) are now lower than firearms deaths (total, homicides plus suicides) and so, in Michigan, one is more likely to die from a bullet than in a car accident. Data source, Ref. [20].
60,000 55,000

US Highway Fatalities

50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 1940

First uptick in 2012

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Time t [Calendar year]

Figure 3: Traffic Fatalities (vertical axis) in the US plotted versus time t in years showing the rising fatalities in the 1950s and 1960s. Also, traffic fatalities went
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up for the first time in 2012, after a six years of straight decline since 2005 (click here). For further details: see http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/DoesSpeed-Kill-Forgotten-US-Highway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s

4. National Gun Safety Act

As I have tried to emphasize in other recent articles, the upward trends observed in the firearms-suicides, with S/H ratio now at 1.75 for the US as a whole, should indeed dictate the gun violence debate. The National Traffic Safety Act was passed by Congress, in 1966, after highly publicized hearings, because of the public outcry over the alarming increase in US Highway fatalities in the 1950s and 1960s, see Figure 3 and Refs. [21,22]. Deaths on the US highways had reached epidemic proportions. Firearms suicides are also reaching alarmingly high levels showing the hockey stick pattern that alarmed climate scientists a few years ago (see Appendix 1). We need a National Gun Safety Act. Perhaps, we also need something like Unsafe at any Speed due to Ralph Nader which acted as the rallying point back in the 1960s. I thought my writings on this topic might do it. But, I am no Ralph. I sincerely hope one more article will act as a wakeup call.

The hockey stick pattern of the firearms-suicides graph merits our attention (see more detailed discussion in Appendix 1).

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20,000 19,500

(x2 , y2) 3087.5, 19,392

Firearms Suicides, y

19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 2800.0

y = hx + c = 24.205x 55,340

(x1 , y1) 2983.8, 16,883

2900.0 3000.0 3100.0 3200.0

US Population, x [in 100,000]

Figure 4: The US population is plotted on the horizontal axis x and the number of firearms-suicides on the vertical axis y. The graph is the same as Figure A2 with time t being replaced by population x. The (x, y) pairs for each year, fluctuate at first and then take off on the upward sloping line. Climate scientists refer to this type of a graph as the hockey stick graph. With some imagination, you can see that the graph looks like a hockey stick.
The straight line is the handle of the hockey stick and the rest of the graph, with the fluctuations at low populations, the curve, or the hook, of the hockey stick used to hit the hockey puck (click here for details). The ratio y/x for each year is the suicide rate as defined in the social science and tabulated by CDC. The population is converted into units of 100,000 (instead of millions that we commonly use; on this graph 3000 = 300 million, etc.) and the firearms suicides is given as the rate per 100,000 populations (the same for traffic fatalities, etc. and other rates in the social sciences).
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This page left blank intentionally to separate discussion in the Appendices from the main text.

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Appendix 1: Brief Discussion of the US Firearms Suicides and Homicides trends (2001-2010)

Firearms Suicides or Homicides, y

25,000

Suicides
20,000

15,000

10,000

Homicides
5,000

0 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure A1: The breakdown in the overall firearms deaths in the US for the 10 years 2001-2010 (obtained from the CDC website) into suicides and homicides, is plotted here. The trends observed here for the immediate past (2007-2010) is a cause for concern. While the slope of the homicides graph is negative, the slope of the suicides graph is positive and is showing an increasing trend (highlighted separately in Figure A2), perhaps, because of the effects of long term unemployment during the years being examined here. The decline in the US economy started back in 2005, or even earlier, and was worsened by the financial crisis of 2008.

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20,500

Firearms Suicides, y

y = At + B = 627.25t 1,241,380.5
19,500

18,500

17,500

16,500 2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Time t [Calendar years]

Figure A2: The US firearms-suicides data from Figure A1, for 2001-2010, is replotted here using a greatly expanded and eliminating the distraction of the homicides data. The mathematical equation y = 627.25 t 1,241,380.5 where t is the calendar year and y the number of firearms-suicides, is deduced using the 2006 and 2010 data points. As we see here, there is an alarming increase in the suicides rate as measured by the slope of the graph. Between 2001 and 2006, there was a small fluctuation up and down in the number of firearms-suicides, but then the trend reversed starting 2007. The rate of increase of suicide, dy/dt, the slope of the y-t graph has changed and has increased dramatically. A best-fit line could be determined but we can just as well use the straight line joining the two extreme points (see detailed justification for this simpler approach, as discussed in Refs. [..,..]), the data for 2006 and 2010, y = 627.25 t 12,41380.5. It should be noted that the rate being discussed here is like measuring the speed of moving vehicle. The speed is the rate of change of the position (or the distance of the vehicle from some reference point). Or, the rate of fuel
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consumption of the vehicle, how passing the fuel tank is depleting, or how fast the batter is losing charge, if one is driving an electric vehicle like the Tesla Model S. Likewise, position is now the number of firearms-suicides measured from some reference year. We are seeing how the US is moving in this new type of space. It is moving like a vehicle which has entered the highway after moving at much lower speeds in stop and go traffic in the citys side roads leading to the freeway. What we see here is an alarming increase in the suicide rate which is different from the rate given by CDC, which is the ratio y/x where x is the US population. The x-y graph is illustrated for completeness and also shows a similar alarming pattern.

Table 2: Firearms Deaths in the US (2001-2010)

Year US US Firearms Firearms Population Population x homicides suicides y (100,000s)
308,745,538 306,771,529 304,093,966 301,231,207 298,379,912 295,516,599 292,805,298 290,107,933 287,625,193 284,968,955 279,040,181 3087.5 3067.7 3040.9 3012.3 2983.8 2955.2 2928.1 2901.1 2876.3 2849.7 11,078 11,493 12,179 12,632 12,791 12,352 11,624 11,920 11,829 11,348 19,392 18,735 18,223 17,352 16,883 17,002 16,750 16,907 17,108 16,869

Suicides rate y/x (per 100,000)

6.28 6.11 5.99 5.76 5.66 5.75 5.72 5.83 5.95 5.92

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 1999

Data source: CDC click here http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate10_us.html Both the number of suicides y and the suicide rate, defined by CDC as the ratio y/x with x (in units of 100,000), increased as the population x also increased in the five-year period 2006 to 2010.

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20,000 19,500

(x2 , y2) 3087.5, 19,392

Firearms Suicides, y

19,000 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 2800.0

y = hx + c = 24.205x 55,340

(x1 , y1) 2983.8, 16,883

2900.0 3000.0 3100.0 3200.0

US Population, x [in 100,000]

Figure A3: The US population is plotted on the horizontal axis x and the number of firearms-suicides on the vertical axis y. The graph is the same as Figure A2 with time t being replaced by population x. The (x, y) pairs for each year, fluctuate at first, as we saw in Figure A2 and then take off on the upward sloping line see table. Climate scientists call this type of a graph as the hockey stick graph. With some imagination, you can see that the graph looks like a hockey stick. The straight line is the handle of the hockey stick and the rest of the graph, with the fluctuations at low populations, the curve, or the hook, of the hockey stick used to hit the hockey puck (click here for details). The ratio y/x for each year is the suicide rate as defined in the social science and tabulated by CDC. The population is converted into units of 100,000 (instead of millions that we commonly use; on this
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graph 3000 = 300 million, etc.) and the firearms suicides is given as the rate per 100,000 populations (the same for traffic fatalities, etc. and other rates in the social sciences). In climate science, we are dealing with the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (click here) instead of suicides. Unlike the controversial hockey stick of global warming science (see also, click here), and the association of carbon dioxide (or greenhouse gas) concentrations with the average global temperature (see latest with the Marcott paper controversy here), there is no mistaking the hockey stick pattern here. Heres an extract on the latest about the hockey stick graph of climate science. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/04/how-the-hockey-stickcrumbled-a-post-mortem.php (How the hockey stick crumbled: A Post Mortem, by John Hinderaker, in Climate, April 20, 2013)
I dont see how this admission can be squared with what Marcott told the Associated Press last month: What weve found is that temperatures increased in the last hundred years as much as they had cooled in the lst six or seven thousand. In other words, the rate of change is much greater than anything weve seen in the whole Holocene. This appears to be one more in a long series of frauds and hoaxes perpetrated by climate alarmists. This one unraveled faster than most; nevertheless, it served its purpose. Newspapers and magazines around the world trumpeted Marcotts findings, and reproduced his hockey stick graph,

I am not trying to associate myself with global warming science, or with the scientists who have been critiqued and discredited, at least in the opinion of some of their peer group. This discussion is mainly aimed at showing what a hockey stick graph means. Anyone with training in the sciences can see, and agree, with the hockey stick pattern that we observe with the firearms suicides graph between 2001 and 2010. The raw data was generated by CDC, not by me. The linear relation between suicides and population (the handle portion of the hockey stick here), y = 24.205 55,339.9, observed here for the US as a whole is also revealed when we consider the data at the state-by-state level, for a single
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year, or the county-by-county data for a single state such as Michigan. This has already been discussed in my recent articles; see reference list. The linear relation implies a remarkable homogeneity of the forces, or the environment, that result in the outcome known as the firearms-suicide. Thus, the constant c in the linear law y = hx + c relating suicides and population is just like the work function conceived by Einstein in 1905 to explain how an electron is produced (here a suicide is produced from the population) from within a metal when light shines on it (stream of photons bombarding it with a fixed energy).
6.40

US Firearms Suicides rate, y/x [per 100,000]

6.30 6.20 6.10

Hockey stick pattern for Firearms Suicides rate

6.00
5.90 5.80 5.70 5.60 2800.0

2850.0

2900.0

2950.0

3000.0

3050.0

3100.0

US Population, x [in 100,000]

Figure A4: The US population is plotted here on the horizontal axis and the firearms-suicides rate y/x (per 100,000) is plotted on the vertical axis. The hockey pattern of rising suicides rate is quite obvious here. We can use the two extreme points, the (x, y) pairs for 2006 and 2010, as illustrated to determine the slope h of the graph and the intercept c. Thus, the law is y = 24.205x 55,339.9.
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Slope h = (y2 y1)/(x2 x1) = (19,392 16,883)/(3087.5 2983.8) = 24.205 Intercept c = (y1 hx1) = (y2 hx2) = 55,3339.9

..(1)

..(2)

Hence, the ratio y/x = h + (c/x) = 24.205 (55,340/x) will increase as the population x increases. This is exactly what we see in the last column of the Table 2 which lists the suicide rates given by CDC, which are population driven, rather than temporal rates (i.e., rate that depends on time). The significance of the linear law and nonzero intercept c, which is the suicide work function, has been discussed in detail in the articles on Brady score and the firearms suicides, Refs. [13-16].

Source: Analysis of Decline in Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities, http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811346.pdf Also, appendix table of fatalities since 1899-2009.

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Appendix 2: Traffic Fatality Law and the Work Function for Traffic Fatalities
Back in January 2000, when the speed limit on Michigan highways was raised to 70 mph, following the repeal of the National Speed Limit (NSL) of 55 mph, I remember reading a front page article in The Detroit News which said, Motorists Speed More But Fewer Die. Citing the fatality rates for 1966, 1996 and 1998 (click here), the author, Tom Greenwood, noted that fatalities have actually been going down even as Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) has increased. One must really wonder why. (Better engineered roads, seat belts use, etc.) US Traffic Fatalities for three selected years Year Vehicle Mile Traveled, US Traffic Fatality rate, y/x VMT (billions) Fatalities, y Per 100 million VMT 1966 925.899 50,894 5.50 1996 2485.8 42,065 1.69 1998 2631.5 41,501 1.58 Source: Table A1 in http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811346.pdf (Also cited in The Detroit News, Jan 4, 2000) In fact, the traffic fatality rate always seems to be going down. It went down in Texas even after the speed limit was increased to 85 mph, the highest in the nation, see the two articles by Ben Wear and Cindy Horswell cited below. Nonetheless, we are still concerned about the traffic fatalities, even with decreasing fatality rates. In 1935, Horswell notes that the fatality rate for Texas was 16.6 deaths per 100 million VMT compared to just 1.34 in 2009. The population was lower in 1935 (it has since quadrupled) and there were fewer Buicks on the road (less than one car per household). Texas traffic fatality dips, still above national average, by Ben Wear Aug 9, 2012, http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local/texas-traffic-fatalityrate-dips-still-above-natio/nRNMh/ In explaining Texas' comparatively higher vehicle
fatality rate, TxDOT officials pointed to stricter laws in other states related to distracted driving. Gov. Rick Perry last year vetoed a bill that would have banned texting while driving. Doug Shupe, a spokesman for AAA Texas, which advocates for traffic safety policies, said the number of road deaths, both in Texas and nationwide, is still too high and too often subject to correctable human behavior.
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"Drinking and driving, distracted driving, speeding, red-light running, drowsy driving and not wearing seat belts are among the most common factors for traffic fatalities in the state and the nation," Shupe said. "Although we may be moving in the right direction in some areas, there are still far too many people dying on our roadways."

Traffic deaths in Texas plunge to lowest level , by Cindy Horswell, Sep 18, 2010, http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Traffic-deaths-inTexas-plunge-to-lowest-level-1696847.php Authorities credit the reduction in deaths to
safer cars and roads, higher seat-belt use and public-awareness campaigns for driving safely. The weak economy also has to be a factor as drivers conserve gas by driving less.

Likewise, we must also be concerned about the firearms suicides rates, and the firearms homicides rates, not just the more spectacular mass killings. Let us consider, briefly, here the fatality data for Texas to see why the fatality rate is going down. Why would driving at higher speeds (which increases the severity of a crash increase the kinetic energy K of the vehicles involved in a crash increases as its speed, or velocity v, increases, K = mv2 where m is the vehicle mass), and driving for longer distances (which means more opportunities to get into a crash) actually reduce the traffic fatalities and/or the traffic fatality rate? The following information was obtained from the Texas Department of Transportation website. Fatality rate, y/x VMT, x Fatalities, y per 100 million (billions) VMT 2002 1.77 215.87 3823 2003 1.75 218.21 3822 2004 1.61 229.34 3700 2005 1.52 234.23 3558 2006 1.49 236.49 3521 2007 1.43 241.8 3462 2008 1.48 234.59 3479 2009 1.34 231.98 3118 2010 1.30 234.3 3050 2011 1.28 235.6 3015 Source: Texas Motor Vehicle Crash Highlights for each calendar year
http://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/trf/crash_statistics/2003_update/1_2003.pdf

Year

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If we consider the data for the three recent years, we see a clear pattern of increasing VMT x and decreasing fatalities y. Between 2009 and 2011, the VMT increased by x = (235.6 231.98) = 3.62 billions and the traffic fatalities decreased by y = (3015 3118) = -103. Hence, the x-y graph has a negative slope h = y/x = -103/3.62 = - 28.45, see Figure A5. The equation of the downward sloping line is y = -28.45x + 9718.54. This is the reason why the fatality rate, defined as the ratio y/x = - 28.45 + (9718.54/x) decreases with increasing VMT. Based on this equation, we can try to estimate the traffic fatalities for 2010. The predicted value is 3052 and the actual value is 3050.
3140

Traffic Fatalities, y

3120 3100 3080 3060

3040
3020 3000 2980 231.0 232.0 233.0 234.0 235.0 236.0

y = hx + c = - 15.59x + 7210.6

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A5: Texas VMT-Fatalities diagram. The traffic fatalities decreases as the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) increases following the linear law y = hx + c where slope h and the intercept c are fixed by considering the two extreme values. (This is similar to what Millikan did in his photoelectricity experiments, as discussed in Refs. [14-16], to determine the universal constant called the Planck constant.) We can then try to predict the fatalities for the intermediate year which is found to be in remarkably good agreement. (VMT values are estimated, not actual measurements, or recorded values, unlike the number of fatalities.)

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Now, let us consider the rest of the data for Texas against this background. Since the fatalities were decreasing from 2002 to 2009, do the points simply fall on the extrapolated straight line deduced here? As we see from Figure A6, the same linear relation is observed with one modification. The slope h is slightly different. But, more importantly, the intercept c has changed.

4500

Traffic Fatalities, y

y = hx + c = - 15.59x + 7210.6 r2 = 0.926

4000

3500

3000

2500 210 215 220 225 230 235 240 245

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A6: Texas VMT-Fatalities diagram with the data for the years 2002-2008. The traffic fatalities again decrease as the Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) increases following the linear law y = hx + c where slope h and the intercept c are now determined using the method of least squares. The slope h is shallower (less negative) and the intercept c has increased and become more positive, which means higher fatalities relative to the period 2009-2011. Exactly similar results are also observed with the data for other states, for example Michigan (2002-2007) and Ohio (2002-2011). The US data, between 1966 and 1998, quoted in the above Detroit News article, also reveals the same trend.

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80,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

y/x = 5.497
70,000

y = hx + c = - 5.51x + 55,993
60,000 50,000 40,000

30,000

y/x = 1.577
20,000 10,000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A7: If we prepare a x-y graph for the US fatalities, based on the information in The Detroit News Jan 2000 article, it is clear that graph is again a straight line with the general equation y = hx + c. The slope of the graph is negative with h = - 5.507 and the intercept c = 55,993. The slopes of the two dashed lines (rays) joining the data point back to the origin (0, 0) is equal to the fatality rate y/x. This keeps decreasing as we move down the line with the negative slope and explains why fatality rates always seem to decrease. Of greater importance is the reduction in the number of fatalities.

What is the difference between the two eras that we observe here for Texas highway fatalities? As discussed in the articles by Wear and Horswell, the biggest difference is the various measures taken by traffic safety advocates to enforce various initiatives to reduce traffic fatalities. The higher slope observed between 2009 and 2011 is probably the effect of the most important change in the Texas driving environment, the higher speed limit of 85 mph.
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The difference in the driving environments in Texas in the two periods (or between different states) is similar to the difference between two metals, such as lithium and sodium, in the photoelectricity experiments. Instead of producing an electron, we are now interested in the outcome called a traffic fatality. This too is a complex phenomenon like the liberation of an electron from a metal using the agency of a stream of photons Einstein refers to the intercept c as the work function. Millikan calls it the difficulty of getting the electron out of the metal, or the work that must be done to get the electron out. The same applies here for traffic fatalities. A simple linear law can be used to explain the differences for the different states or different eras. The change in slope and the changes in the values of the intercept explain the entire graph for the US from 1899 to the present. The linear law permits both positive and negative values of h and also positive and negative values of the nonzero intercept c. Thus, we have three possibilities, all of which are observed when we consider the traffic fatality data, for the US and for individual states. Type I: Positive slope, negative intercept (h > 0, c < 0). The fatality rate increases as fatalities increase and VMT increases. This is the pattern observed in the US before the peak in the period 1970-1973. Type II: Positive slope, positive intercept (h > 0, c < 0). The fatality rate decreases as the number of fatalities increase and VMT increases. This too is observed, for example US as we approach the peak, and in states like Michigan. Type III: Negative slope, positive intercept (h < 0, c > 0). The fatality rate decreases with increasing VMT and decreasing fatalities, as is most commonly observed, with the US and in the individual states. The Type III behavior observed for the US, for example, cannot continue indefinitely with increasing VMT since this would mean that fatalities will actually decrease to zero at some large value of VMT. This is impossible. Thus, it is not surprising to see the uptick in the fatalities for 2012. This means the system is adjusting to a new value of h and c. Likewise, if we extrapolate
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backwards, the Type III law implies that when VMT x = 0, the number of fatalities y = c = 55, 993. This is clearly impossible and implies that there must be a maximum point on the x-y graph and the Type III behavior must change at some point to a Type II or a Type I behavior. The composite behavior must thus be a nonlinear curve, with a maximum point, which can be described by the equation y = mxne-ax where the constants m, n and a can be fixed from the empirical observations. The maximum point will occur when the slope of the graph changes sign and becomes zero. The slope is given by the derivative of this function, dy/dx = (n ax)(y/x) and therefore a maximum point is observed at x = n/a. This is illustrated in Figure A8 and includes the US data for 1966, 1996 and 1998 from Figure A7 and some more data covering the years from 1928 to 2012.
60,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000

y = mxne-ax = 875x0.66e-x/2000
10,000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A8: A simple nonlinear model, y = mxne-ax , can be used to describe the US traffic fatalities data as illustrated here. The numerical values of the constants are m = 875, n = 0.66 2/3 and a = -1/2000. The maximum point occurs at a VMT x = n/a = 1320 billion, which coincides approximately with the year 1973.
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The solid dots are the actual (x, y) observations obtained from NHTSA report cited earlier (click here). The data points chosen here cover the period from 1928 to 2012. The curve was developed originally in 2000, with the three (x, y) pairs from The Detroit News article. It is clear that the mathematical equation provides a good fit to the data. With small adjustments to n and a other members of the same family of curves can be generated to envelop all the (x, y) traffic fatality observations; see Figure A9. The equation used here is known as Wiens law in physics and is the precursor to Plancks blackbody radiation law, which can be written as y = mxn [e-ax /(1 + be-ax) ]. Thus, for b = 0, we get Wiens law. The approximate law was also used by Einstein to develop his photoelectric law. This law can thus be used for traffic fatality analysis, by generalizing the meaning of concepts such as energy, entropy, and temperature. This has been discussed in other articles listed under bibliography, Ref. [28].
60,000

y = mxne-ax = 950x0.66e-x/2000 US Traffic Fatalities, y

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

y = mxne-ax = 750x0.66e-x/2000

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A9: The power-exponential law, y = mxne-ax , is illustrated with a small variation in the value of the constant m is shown here. The values of n = 0.66 2/3 and a = 1/2000 are retained. Only the constant m is varied. The upper curve is for m = 950 and the lower curve is for m = 750. The data for the most
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recent years, 2002-2012 (the cluster on three points on the upper curve and the cluster of two points on the lower curve) can be described by these two curves. In other words, a fundamental understanding of the meaning of the constants m, n, and a will lead to fuller understanding of the traffic fatality problem and the various design (science and engineering), legal (various traffic laws and their enforcement), social (driver behavior) and environmental (weather, day or night) parameters that are responsible for the observed traffic fatalities. Since the constants n and a were not changed, the maximum point is not shifted and still occurs at VMT x = n/a = 1320 billion.

Further discussion of this point may be found in the articles cited at the end. In this context, it is also of interest to call attention to the baseball batting averages and the baseball work function which tells us something about the difficulty of producing hits or home runs. It is readily shown that law relating At Bats x and the Hits y (or home runs) is also a linear law, y = hx + c. The legendary Babe Ruth had a negative intercept c during the 1927 season when he set the single season home run record of 60. His Yankee team mate, Lou Gehrig, on the other hand, had a positive c. This difference in their work functions explains why Ruth won the race for home runs in the 1927 season. For Ruth, with the negative c, the BA was increasing as the AB increased give rise to the perception that the more Ruth bats the better he gets. For Gehrig, the intercept is positive and his BA decreases as his AB increases. These general considerations also apply to firearm-suicides, or more generally all firearms death. The population x replaces VMT and tells us something about the opportunities to observe the outcome, a traffic fatality or a firearms fatality. Baseball, traffic fatality, firearm deaths, photoelectricity, all described by the simple linear law and an operating work function that is unique to each problem.

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Appendix 3: Recent US Highway Fatalities Trends

We will consider the most recent US highway fatalities trends here within the context of the above discussion. We consider the year-to-year changes and then the recent behavior within the historical sense using the nonlinear power-exponential law.

44,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

43,500 43,000 42,500 42,000 41,500 41,000 2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A10: The VMT-Fatalities (x-y) diagram for 2002-2007 reveals Type III segments with an intervening Type I segment between 2004 and 2005. The tipped arrow segments show the direction of movement. Fatalities were decreasing at a low rate as revealed by the shallow negative slope h between 2002 and 2004, increased suddenly and then started falling sharply (higher negative slope h) between 2005 to 2007. If we consider only the end points, 2002 and 2007, we see a Type III trend.

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38,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

37,000 36,000

35,000
34,000 33,000 32,000 2930

2940

2950

2960

2970

2980

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A11: The VMT-Fatalities (x-y) diagram for 2008-2012 reveals a complex zigzag pattern as revealed by the tipped arrow line segments.
Year y/x (conventional) 1.26 1.15 1.11 1.10 1.16 VMT x (bil) 2977 2957 2967 2946 2938 y (fatalities) 37,423 33,883 32,999 32,367 34,080 delta x delta y Slope, h Intercept, c

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-20 10 -21 -8

-3540 -884 -632 1713

177 -88.4 30.1 -214.1

10,501,663 2,655,827 1,894,239 -4,998,714

The slope h in table is per billion VMT instead of per 100 million VMT.

There are two Type III segments. The first between 2009 and 2010 is the normal Type III, with fatalities decreasing with increase VMT. Between 2011 and 2012 we have an inverse Type III with fatalities increasing as VMT decreases. These Type III segments are joined by an inverse Type I between 2008 and 2009 since the slope h is positive with a simultaneous decrease in both the VMT and the fatalities. (Imagine reduced income and reduced taxes or reduced revenues and reduced profits.) Between 2010 and 2011, the slope is again positive, with both VMT and fatalities decreasing simultaneously. The shallower slope makes this inverse Type II.
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60,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A12: The family of three power-exponential curves, y = mxne-ax for values of m = 750, 875 and 950 with n = 0.66 2/3 and a = 1/2000. The most recent data segregate on two three curves here which also agrees with the complex zigzag behavior deduced using the simpler linear model and tipped arrow line segments. In radiation physics, such a family of curves represents a change in the temperature of the system. Here too the changing fatalities have been associated with the strength or weakness of the US economy, in other words, the elusive temperature is what we are talking about in a more general sense. The meanings of energy, entropy, and temperature, can be generalized and applied outside physics, as discussed in the articles listed in the bibliography, see articles on the Forbes billionaires, and the article entitled Money in economics is just like Energy in Physics.

Finally, the same graph here, prepared using Microsoft Excel is presented as Figure A13 by adjusting the horizontal and vertical scale. The curves now appear
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like Type III straight lines with the most recent being segregated on these three lines.

50,000

US Traffic Fatalities, y

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000 2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

Vehicle Miles Traveled, VMT, x [billions]

Figure A13: The same family of three power-exponential curves (y = mxne-ax for values of m = 750, 875 and 950 with n = 0.66 2/3 and a = 1/2000) is reproduce here using a greatly expanded horizontal and vertical scales, like zooming in and out of a modern Google map. The nonlinear curves now appear as three Type III straight lines with the data segregated on to the three curves. With a little imagination, one can see the same zigzag movements of the data points on this graph with the system cascading from one curve to the other as time progresses (or the temperature of the system changes, in this case, measured by our perception of the strength of the US economy). This is, perhaps, the most
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dramatic illustration of how nonlinearity gives way to linearity, as we see also from the Plancks radiation law and Einsteins photoelectric law. The nonlinear with essentially the same physics manifests itself as a linear law. Here the traffic fatalities data can be perceived the same way, as part of a nonlinear system, or a locally linear system.

Reference List
1. Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012, Traffic Safety Facts, May 2012, NHTSA DOT HS 811 741 http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811741.pdf 2. The recessions silver lining: fewer traffic fatalities in 2009, by Michael Dresser, Baltimore Sun, March 12, 2010 http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-03-12/news/balmd.cm.traffic12mar12_1_traffic-fatalities-highway-deaths-traffic-deaths 3. US Highway Deaths lowest since 1961, by Ken Thomas, Associated Press, http://www.saferoads.org/us-highway-deaths-lowest-levels-1961 The
recession and $4 per gallon gas meant people drove less to save more. Experts also cited record high seat belt use, tighter enforcement of drunken driving laws and the work of advocacy groups that encourage safer driving habits. Preliminary figures being released by the government Monday show that 37,313 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes last year. That's 9.1 percent lower than the year before, when 41,059 died, and the fewest since 1961, when there were 36,285 deaths.

4. U. S. Traffic Fatalities Hit Historic Low, by Richard Read, Mar 10, 2010, http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1043314_u-s-traffic-fatalitieshit-historic-lows The DOT attributes the drop in traffic fatalities to high-profile campaigns
that encouraged wearing seat belts and discouraged drunk driving. We imagine that the reduction is also due to safety improvements introduced by automakers themselves, like those found on the new Mercedes-Benz S400 hybrid and its ESF Safety Car. However, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and many others know that new problems lay on the horizon -- particularly those of texting, taking phone calls behind the wheel, and other forms of distracted driving.

5. US Traffic Fatalities Plummet: But Why? By Michelle Ernst, Sep 23, 2010, http://blog.tstc.org/2010/09/23/u-s-traffic-fatalities-plummet-but-why/
The consensus seems to be that multiple factors are contributing to the decline. Americans are driving less as a result of the spike in gas prices and the great recession, but this does not appear to explain the entire decline. In 2008, total vehicle miles traveled fell by 1.9 percent nationwide, but in 2009 VMT actually increased by 0.2%. There is some evidence to suggest that the recession and gas price fluctuations has changed the type of driving that Americans are doing fewer recreational trips (which are more likely to involve alcohol), fewer trips
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by young drivers (who are more likely to be squeezed by higher gas prices and more likely to be out of work), slower travel speeds as drivers try to conserve gas, etc. Greater use of graduated licensing laws may also be making a dent, given that young male drivers are responsible for a disproportionate share of traffic deaths.

6. Gun Deaths to Surpass deaths in Traffic Accidents by 2015: report, by Philip Caulfield, New York Daily News, Dec 19, 2012 http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/gun-deaths-outpace-trafficdeaths-2015-report-article-1.1223721 7. Death rates from guns, traffic accidents converging, by Kelly Kennedy, USA Today, Dec 21, 2012 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/01/09/guns-trafficdeaths-rates/1784595/ Deaths from traffic accidents have dropped dramatically over
the last 10 years, while firearm-related fatalities rose for decades before leveling off in the past decade, a USA TODAY analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows. Meanwhile, the rate of firearms deaths has exceeded traffic fatalities in several states, including Arizona, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Michigan, Nevada and Oregon, records show. The rate is equal in Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the United States in 2010, the rate of firearm deaths was 10 people per 100,000, while for traffic accidents it was 12 per 100,000. Firearm-related deaths totaled 31,672 in 2010.

8. American Under the Gun, http://www.americanprogress.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/03/AmericaUnderTheGun.pdf Full report here. 9. A 50 State Analysis of Gun Violence and its Link to Weak State Gun Laws, by Arkadi Gerney, Chelsea Parsons, and Charles Posner, April 4, 2013, Center for American Progress Report, Brief discussion here, http://truth-out.org/news/item/15524 10. Gun crime statistics by US state: latest data, Datablog, Posted by Simon Rogers, December 17, 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/10/gun-crime-usstate Total firearm murders and the firearm murder rates (per 100,000 population) for all states is given here. 11. Gun Control 2013: Suicide Stats Irrelevant to Gun Control Policy, Matt MacBradaigh, in Politics, May 6, 2013, http://www.policymic.com/articles/38391/gun-control-2013-suicidestats-are-irrelevant-to-gun-control-policy 12. Statistics, Guns, and Wishful Thinking, by Hugh Jim Bissell, March 26, 2012, Daily Kos, http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/26/1077930/Statistics-Guns-and-Wishful-Thinking Some Important Points from Bissells article are copied and pasted below.
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In this article, I would like to present some of the collected empiric evidence on gun ownership and gun-related death. The need for empiric evidence on this topic is to move the discussion away from opinions and beliefs, and towards what actually happens to actual people. Unfortunately, this and other empiric data on guns and killing will be largely ignored and/or viewed as irrelevant by gun advocates and enthusiasts, because the data does not match their opinions and beliefs. Arguments for greater gun availability generally fall into two broad areas: 1) crime is common here in the US, and guns can protect persons from being victimized by criminals; and 2) the Second Amendment of the US Constitution permits gun ownership. The second broad argument used by gun enthusiasts is that gun ownership is a protected right under the US Constitution, and our civil rights are sacrosanct and guns are necessary to protect our civil rights. Anyone paying attention should have by now noticed that American citizens have recently seen an abridgment and restriction on their rights to free speech, their rights to be free of unreasonable government search and seizure, their right to a trial by a jury of their peers, their rights to have legal representation when accused of a crime, their right to be free of cruel and unusual punishment, and all of this at a time when there are more guns here in America than at any time in our history. Clearly, increased gun availability has not protected the civil rights of Americans. Increased gun availability has protected the profits of an active gun industry, who use those profits to lobby state and federal legislatures for relaxation of gun ownership restrictions and de-criminalization of gun use.

13. Firearms-Suicides Stats Are the ONLY Relevant Stats in the Gun Violence Debate, Published may 14, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/141576001/Firearms-Suicides-Stats-Arethe-Only-Relevant-Stats-in-the-Gun-Violence-Debate 14. Gun Violence in America: Americans are Killing Themselves NOT Each Other, Published May 14, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/141451669/Gun-Violence-in-AmericaAmericans-Are-Killing-Themselves-NOT-Each-Other-Across-States 15. Michigan Firearms-Related Suicides: The Linear Suicides-Population Law, Published May 14, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/141334599/Michigan-Firearms-RelatedSuicides-The-Suicides-County-Population-Law 16. Brady Campaign State Rankings and the Firearms-related Death Rates: Einsteins Work Function Reappears, Published May 13, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/141292101/The-Brady-Campaign-StateRanking-and-the-Firearms-Death-Rates-Einstein-s-Work-FunctionReappears 17. Comparison of the Strong and Weak Gun Law States and the Ten States with Highest Level of Gun Violence: Least Squares Analysis of the Data, Published May 10, 2013,
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/140536622/Comparison-of-the-Strong-andWeak-Gun-law-States-and-the-Ten-States-With-Highest-Levels-of-GunViolence-Least-Squares-Analysis-of-the-Data 18. Gun Death Statistics and the Method of Least Squares and the Forgotten Property of a Straight Line, Published May 8, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/140152581/Gun-Death-Statistics-and-theMethod-of-Least-Squares-and-the-Forgotten-Property-of-a-Straight-line 19. US Traffic fatalities Rise for the first time since 2005, The Car Connection, Feb 25,, 2013, http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2013/02/25/u-straffic-fatalities-rise-for-first-time-since-2005/ Projection by National Safety Council (NSC), a non-profit organization, as opposed to NHTSA, a government agency. NSC figures include traffic fatalities on private property, not just public roads. 20. 2010 Motor Vehicle Crashes Overview, Traffic Safety Facts, DOT HS 811 552, Graph of fatalities and fatality rate since 1949, http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811552.pdf 21. As car get safer, gun death eclipse traffic fatalities in Michigan, by Pat Shellenbarger, Bridge Magazine, April 10, 2013, http://www.mlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/04/as_cars_get_safer_gun _deaths_e.html The ten year average (2002-2011) for suicides and homicides in 569.1 and 492.2 for a S/H ratio of 569.1/492.2 = 1.16. The ten year average for traffic deaths is 1114.3 and for firearms (overall) is 1061.3 22. Analysis of the Significant Decline in Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2008, DOT HS 811 346, June 2010, http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811346.pdf 23. Does Speed Kill? Forgotten US Highway Deaths in the 1950s and 1960s, August 3, 2012, http://www.scribd.com/doc/101982715/DoesSpeed-Kill-Forgotten-US-Highway-Deaths-in-1950s-and-1960s 24. The Effect of Speed Limits on Fatalities and Texas Proofing of Vehicles, August 3, 2012, http://www.scribd.com/doc/101983375/Effect-of-Speed-Limits-onFatalities-Texas-Proofing-of-Vehicles 25. National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Traffic_and_Motor_Vehicle_Safety_Act
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26. Top 10 Presidential influences on the auto industry, http://www.forbes.com/pictures/ehmk45ielk/6-highway-safety-act-andnational-traffic-motor-vehicle-safety-act-1966-lyndon-johnson-2/ 27. US Department of Transportation: Office of the Historian, http://ntl.bts.gov/historian/chronology.htm 28. Bibliography, Articles on Extension of Plancks Ideas and Einsteins Ideas beyond physics, Compiled on April 16, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136492067/Bibliography-Articles-on-theExtension-of-Planck-s-Ideas-and-Einstein-s-Ideas-on-Energy-Quantum-totopics-Outside-Physics-by-V-Laxmanan 29. Babe Ruths 1923 Batting Statistics and Einsteins Work Function, Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136489156/BabeRuth-s-1923-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 30. Babe Ruth Batting Statistics and Einsteins Work Function, To be Published April 17, 2013, http://www.scribd.com/doc/136556738/BabeRuth-Batting-Statistics-and-Einstein-s-Work-Function 31. The Method of Least Squares: Predicting the Batting Average of a Baseball Player (Hamilton in 2013), Published May 7, 2013

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About the author V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

The author obtained his Bachelors degree (B. E.) in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Poona and his Masters degree (M. E.), also in Mechanical Engineering, from the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, followed by a Masters (S. M.) and Doctoral (Sc. D.) degrees in Materials Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. He then spent his entire professional career at leading US research institutions (MIT, Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of Honeywell, NASA, Case Western Reserve University (CWRU), and General Motors Research and Development Center in Warren, MI). He holds four patents in materials processing, has co-authored two books and published several scientific papers in leading peer-reviewed international journals. His expertise includes developing simple mathematical models to explain the behavior of complex systems. While at NASA and CWRU, he was responsible for developing material processing experiments to be performed aboard the space shuttle and developed a simple mathematical model to explain the growth Christmas-tree, or snowflake, like structures (called dendrites) widely observed in many types of liquid-to-solid phase transformations (e.g., freezing of all commercial metals and alloys, freezing of water, and, yes, production of snowflakes!). This led to a simple model to explain the growth of dendritic structures in both the groundbased experiments and in the space shuttle experiments. More recently, he has been interested in the analysis of the large volumes of data from financial and economic systems and has developed what may be called the Quantum Business Model (QBM). This extends (to financial and economic systems) the mathematical arguments used by Max Planck to develop quantum physics using the analogy Energy = Money, i.e., energy in physics is like money in economics. Einstein applied Plancks ideas to describe the photoelectric effect (by treating light as being composed of particles called photons, each with the fixed quantum of energy conceived by Planck). The mathematical law deduced by Planck, referred to here as the generalized power-exponential law, might
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actually have many applications far beyond blackbody radiation studies where it was first conceived. Einsteins photoelectric law is a simple linear law and was deduced from Plancks non-linear law for describing blackbody radiation. It appears that financial and economic systems can be modeled using a similar approach. Finance, business, economics and management sciences now essentially seem to operate like astronomy and physics before the advent of Kepler and Newton. Finally, during my professional career, I also twice had the opportunity and great honor to make presentations to two Nobel laureates: first at NASA to Prof. Robert Schrieffer (1972 Physics Nobel Prize), who was the Chairman of the Schrieffer Committee appointed to review NASAs space flight experiments (following the loss of the space shuttle Challenger on January 28, 1986) and second at GM Research Labs to Prof. Robert Solow (1987 Nobel Prize in economics), who was Chairman of Corporate Research Review Committee, appointed by GM corporate management.

Cover page of AirTran 2000 Annual Report

Can you see that plane flying above the tall tree tops that make a nearly perfect circle? It requires a great deal of imagination to see and to photograph it.

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