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The Laws of Migration Author(s): E. G. Ravenstein Source: Journal of the Statistical Society of London, Vol. 48, No. 2 (Jun.

, 1885), pp. 167-235 Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2979181 . Accessed: 10/08/2011 18:31
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Vol. XLVIII] JOURNAL OF TE STATISTIC


JUNE,1885.

[Part IL SOCIETY,

The LAWS of MIGRATION.

By E. G. RAVENSTEIN, ESQ., F.R.G.S.

the StatisticalSociety, [Read before 17th March,1885. The PRESIDENT, SIR RAwsoN W. RAwsoN,K.C.M.G., C.B., in the Chair.]
CONTENTS: Remarks 167 Introductory .................... andBirthplaces 168 Population Geographical Distribution of the LNatives of eachKingdom .170 The National Element of the Populationt (Map 1) .. 172 ,,. The Native County (Map 2) ...... 173 Elemeont The Native TownElement ..................... 174 The Border Element........................... 175 Thie Irish Element in Great Britain (Map3) .............. 175 ............... The Scotch in England Element (Map4)... 178 in Scotland The English Element (Map4) 179
PAGE

The Anglo-Scotch Elementin Ireland 180 (Map 4) ............................. andColonial The Foreian Element ......... 180 Classification of Migrants ..................... 181 of Absorption and Dispersion Counties (Map6) ............... 184 ............... of Migration Couinter-Currenits ............... 187 TheDispersion of Migrants ... 189 Illustrated Illustrated of Migrants T'heAbsorption ... 193 andtheNatives Migration of Towns...... 195 of Females Migration ........................... 196 TheLawsof Migrationi ........................ 198 andtheTowns... 199 The Lawsof Migration

PAGX

Introductory Remar7ks.
IT was a remarkof the late Dr. William Farr, to the effect that migration appeared to go on withoutany definitelaw, which first directed my attentionto a subject,* to which, afterthe publication of the census of 1881, I now propose to return. I shall confine myselfin what follows to migrationgoing on withinthe limits of the United Kingdom,t reservingfor a futureoccasion a consideration of the same subject in connectionwith foreigncountries. In his general reporton the census of 1871 the registrar-general says very justly: " The improvedroads, the facilities offered under the " railway system, the wonderful development of the mercantile "marine, the habit of travelling about, and the increasing know"ledge of workmen,have all tended to facilitatethe flowof people "from spots where theyare not wanted to fieldswhere theirlabour "is in demand. The establishment of a manufactureor the open"ing of a new mine rallies men to it, not only from the vicinity, "but from remote parts of the kingdom. The great towns afford "such extraordinary facilitiesforthe division and forthe combina* See the Birthplacesof the People and the Laws of Migrationin the -' Geographical Magazine,"1876, withsevenmaps. t That is England,Scotland,and Ireland; Man and the ChannelIslands are therefore excluded. VOL. XLJVIII. PART II. N

168

RAvENSTEIN-OntheLaws of Migration.

[June,

" tion of labour, for the exercise of all the arts, and for the " practice of all the professions, that they are everyyear drawing " people within their limits." Farther inducements to migrate are offeredby educational facilities,salubrity of the climate or cheapness of living. In a few instances,as in the case of convicts or of soldiers and sailors,migration is even compulsory. It shall be our task to trace the extent of this migration the United Kingdom, and to point out some of those throughout laws which appear to govern it. The materials at our disposal for the performance of this ta-skare voluminous,but they are by no means complete. Informationon many points of interestis withheld in the census returns. It is impossible,foriustance, to trace the natives of any particular county of England into Scotland or Ireland. Anothercircumstance likely to lead to misconception, if not error, arises fromthe veryuneqiualsize of thecounties. Rutland and Yorkshire are hardly comparable. A journey of 25 miles at the most converts any native of Rutland into a "migrant," whilst a native of Yorkshire to place himselfiuto the same position might have to travel as many as 95 miles. The exchange of population between the border counties of England and Scotland cannot be traced, nor is it possible to point out those countiesof Ireland which have furnishedthe largestcontingents of migrantsto Great Britain. The emigrationreturnsfortunatelyenable us to obtain an insightinto this branch of our inquiry.* Yet notwithstanding these shortcomings in the census returns, theyenable us to obtain a clear insight into the mode in which migration proceeds, and the general results appear to be trustworthy. Population and Birthplaces. The populationwith which we have to deal numbered in 1871 31,484,66i souls,in 1881 34,884,848 souls, distributedas follows:I

1871. | PerCeut. 1871.


7z1

1881.

PerCent.

~~~~~~~~~~~~1871-81 Increasie,
Perent.

England and Wales.... 22,712,266 Scotland. 3,360,018 Ireland. 5,413,377 'UnitedKingdom .... 31,484,661

17

10.7

25,974,439 3,735,573 5,174,836

74.4
IO7

14-4
I1iZ

14,9

- 4'9
OIO8

Io00*

34,884,848 Ic00c

* It is to be hoped that by the titne the next census is taken,so-called " Registrationi Counities"andl "Counties proper" will have been assimilatted. The registrar's districts or unionsundoubtedly the mostsuitable unit for present of the people. The present the ages, birthplaces, and occulpations summarising divisions is mostconfusing, complexsystemof the territorial and increases the of real use to the information volume of the returns without addinganytlhing they furnish.

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

169

Accordingto birthplacesthis populationwas divided as follows:1871. Per Cent. 1881. Per Cent. Incresee 1871-81. Perciat.
I 15 3-9 261O8
I4.6

Born in England and Wales 21,830,528 69.34 25,017,027 7I.7I ,, Scotland ...... 3,295,103l o.47 3,673,615 10I53 Ireland ...... 6,081,067 I9-31 5,843,406 I6.75 ,, elsewhere ...... 277,963 o 88 350,800 r.o 1 Total ... ........ 31,484,661
Ioo oo

34,884,848 Io00o00

The details for each kingdom(for 1881) are given in the following setoftables:Number. (Born in England and Wales ........ 24,855,822 J ,, Scotland ............................ 253,528 ,, and Wales Ireland ............................ 562,374 ............................ L ,, elsewhere 302,715
England Total ........................

Per Cent. 95,69


0O98
2- I

1- 6

25,974,439 3,397,759 91,823 21874 3,735,573 5,062,287 69,382 2232 19,792 5,174,836*

IOO CO

Born in Scotland ............................ Scotland.

" ,
,,

and Wales England I reland .......................... elsewhere.27,246


Total .3735,573....

9O'96 2 46 5 86
0-7Z
100*00

Ireland

Born in Ireland ...................... Wales England and I ,, ,,Scotland ..........................


,,

5 97 8
I.34

elsewhere.19,792..................

0 43
038
I00*00

Total ........
*

....

Including1,047persons whoseplace of birthis not known.

English element, as far as birthplace determinesit, is gaining ground. It need hardly be pointed out that this difference is due primarilyto emigrationto foreign parts,and in a less degree to migration fromone kingdorn into the other.t Had there been no Irish emigration between 1871-81, 530,92+
170,757;

This set oftablesshowsvery thatthe rateat whichthe clearly population of eachkingdom doesnotcorrespond increases withthe rateof increase amongthenativesof each,and thatas a result the

- Emigrationfromcensus to census, 1871-81: English, 996,o38; Scotch, Irish, 59 were English, Io Scotch, 530,924. Thatis of ioo emigrants of the United Kingdom, 72 are English, and 3' Irish,whilstof ton inhabitants iI Scotch, and 17 Irish
N 2

170

RAYENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

[June,

in the kingdom, to personsof Irish birthwould have remained and multiply, as theyhave doneacrosstheocean, and the increase an increase, instead ofa population ofIrelandwouldhaveexhibited decrease. The number of Irish,however, is in reality muchlarger whichtake note of the place than shownby the censusreturns, and thus quite consistently of birthonly,and not of parentage, in England as a " nativeof recorda child bornof Irish parents " England." If an inquiry intothe parentage of our population as in Canada, some very startling and were to be instituted, undoubtedly interesting factsmightbe revealedas to its racial
composition.

Natives Distribution of eachKingdom. of the Geographical distribution of the We will now glance at the geographical and nativesof each kingdom, to whether theyremained according in thecounty, to border countics, were enumerated had migrated or to more distant results (1881) parts of thecounty. The general in thefollowing are presented set oftables:Numbers. Per Cent.

Nativesof rCountywhereborn ................ 18,699,922 England Bordercounties ................8...... 8,308,732 and Wales* Rest of Englandand Wales .... 2,847,168 enumerated I Scotland....................... 91,823 in 69,382 LIreland .......................

'7475

I3'22 1.6o I I38 J 24 6

0?37 o6 o-z8 J 05

Total ....................25,017,027
2,527,794 Nativesof rCounty whereborn ................ .............. 529,163 Bordercounties ......... Scotland of Scotland............ 340,802 enumerated.~Rest England and ................ 253,528

100| 00

68 8 I
9-27

4'41 2

371

inuma

Ireland .......................

Wales

22,328

690 o 6JJ

*1I
7'

Total .................... 3,673,615


Nativesof rCounty whereborn.4,534,699 ....................... I Bordercounties Ireland Rest of Ireland....................... enumerated England and Walels ................ in Scotland .............................. m 212,023 315,565 562,374 218,745

IOOo00

77.6 3 63 l9
9

540 J 903

62}I3.36 3-74J

the Unitedc Bordercounties . ................ 4,049,918 Kingdom . Elsewhere in kingdom 3,503,535 enumerated I whereborn ........................ I in Elsewhere in United Kingdom 1,218,180

Natives of

r County where born ................ 25,762,415


Total.34,534,048

Total .................... 5,843,406

I00'00

74:601 1014 353


Iooo0 I I73

96-47 6

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

171

the Scotch hold the firstrank, whilst the Irish, notwithstanding the large contingentwhich representsthem in the sister kingdoms, come last. The Scotch also come first if we look at each kingdom separately,for out of everyhundrednativesof England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland, therewere enumerated:
In County where Born. In Border Couities. Elsewhere, butin Kingdom. sgme I2'35

bornin theUnited persons thatout of 34,534,048 We thusfind or in 1881, as manyas 33,3X5,868, Kingdomand ennmerated in whichtheywere born. residedin the kingdom 96-47percent., Amongevery 1oo nativesof England and Wales, 99-35 were in that position;amongevery IOO nativesof Scotland,92-49; and amongevery 1oo nativesof Ireland,86'64. The Irish therefore peopleof the threekingdoms; appear to be the mostmigratory at the same time, and if we bear in mind that theyfurnish by far the largestcontingent to theirnumbers, proportionately we may safelyassume that whatever emigrants, of trans-oceanic thereis of Ireland, in the population decreasemayhave occurred of Irishmen. in thenumber no decrease from ourselvesto the migration But if, insteadof confining whichis goingon witbin we includethat, to kingdom, kingdom we shall findthat the to county, county of each,from the limits people. Irishare secondto the Scotchand Englishas a migratory in the countyin In 1881 25,762,415 personswere enumerated among and whilst and 8,77I,633elsewhere; theywereborn, which the throughout 0oo nativesof England and Wales enumerated therewere25-25whoresidedbeyondthe county UnitedKingdom of Scotchin a similar theproportion in whichthey had beenborn, that of the Irish only22-39. Here therefore positionwas 31-332,

andWales ........ 75'23 Natives England 74'40 Scotland................... f lIreland of 89'58 ...................

12-42 15-58 4-19

10-02

6'23

The more active migrationof Great Britain is only what might have been expected fromits larger size, its higher commercialand industrial development,the greater variety of its resources, and more extended facilitiesfor travel. Migrationwithinthe limits of Irelaind is strikinglysmall, nor need this be wondered at where nearly all counties are agricultural. There is no mistaking the fact however that migrationin Ireland tends towards the portsof embarkationfor Great Britain, whence the surplus population is poured into the great manufacturing and mining districts of Scotland, NorthEngland, and Wales.

172

RAVENSTEIN-OOn

theLaws of Migration.

[June,

The NationalElement in England,Scotland, of thePopulation and Ireland.-If by "national element " of the populationwe of theUnitedKingdom bhoseinhabitants understand who,on the in thekingdom wereenumerated in whichthey dayof the census, were born,we shall find that they numberedno less than 34,534,048souls, or 98-99 per cent. of the total population, distributed as follows: 1871.
England and Wales. Scotland .. ... ...... Ireland.5,306,757 Kingdom rnited (impee) rilelement ......... 21,692,165

1881.
24,855,822 5,062,287

PerCent. 1871. 1881. 95.69


90g96

3,061,531

3,397,759

95-53
980oo
9I*Iz

97.85
98m99

31,231,300

34,534,048

99-2O

These proportions are just what mighthave been expected. The natives of Ireland have been least encroachedupon by immigrants from the sister kingdoms or from abroad, whilst Scotland has profited mostlargely, and Englandto a smaller extent (as far as mere numbers the go) by an influxof immigrants from thatthisinflux sisterisle. It shouldbe stated,however, of Irish immigration has for the time passed its zenith, and is goingon now at a slowerrate than was the case some fifteen yearsago. This diminution accountstoo for the increase of the national elementwhichhas taken place since 1871 in England,for the children of nativesof Ireland bornin Englandat oncetaketheir placeamongthe Englishnational element, Our figuresshow veryclearlythat the national elementis in Ireland: Ireland in fact is moreintensely Irishthan strongest or EnglandEnglish. In twenty-seven counties Scotlandis Scotch, more the nationalelement out of a total of thirty-two embraces and onlyin twocounties than98 per cent.of the total population, doesit fall below95. These two are Dublinand Kildare,and the in their of case is sufficiently depression explainedbythe presence in the capital of the kingdom, and of a strong manystrangers forceon the Cnrraghof Kildare. The most intensely military Irish countiesare Leitrimand Cavan, wherenativesof Ireland constitute 99-4percent.of thepopulation. In Scotland, thereare out of a total of thirty-three counties, element exceeds98 per cent. onlyten in whichthe Scotchnational whilstin sixteenit falls shortof 95 per cent. The depression is and Southern greatestin Renfrew, Lanark,Dambarton, Scotland which in thosecounties are most exposed generally;in fact, to an inflow oftheIrishelement or oftheEnglishborder element.

IHE,NATI ONALELEMENT
= 9t-4pt .9/92pc;n0+.

-93'N,pE4 99-9fpc m996p-97p.c -7

ii *

98P otspc

y4 Orkne^

j "'* g

l~~~~dwIF g F~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i

1885.]

RAvENSTEJN-On theLaws of Migration.

173

The mostintensely Scotch countiesare Shetland,Caithness, and Kincardine, in all of Sutherland, Orkney, Ross,Banif, Kinross, element exceeds which thenational 98 percent.; themostintensely Dunfermline Scotchtowns, (97'26 percent.),Arbroath, Aberdeen, and Inverness. Even Edinburgh-Leith includes a Scotchnational elementof 89-51per cent. Those towns in Scotlandin which are Greenock(79;5 per cent.),and strangers are mostnumerous Glasgow(8z 8 percent.). In Englandand Wales, out ofa totaloffifty-two counties there theEnglishnational are thirty-one in which element exceeds 98 per it sinksbelow95 percent. It exceeds cent.,and six inwhich 99 per cent. in the agricultural of Cambridge, counties Hunts,Norfolk, Suffolk, Merioneth, and CarmarRadnor, Cardigan, Montgomery, and is weakest in the Scotchbordercounties of Cumberland then, and Westmoreland. areWest Bromwich, The most towns intensely English Norwich, and Northampton, Ipswich, Leicester, in all of whichthe national element exceeds98 percent.* Liverpoolis that one amongthe towns of England in which the number of strangers of non-English birthis proportionately largerthan in any othertown of the kingdom, and Birkenhead ranksnextto it. In Liverpool I00 inhabitants ODly8o06i ofevery are of Englishbirth. This depre.s%inu of the nationalelement is due to thelargenumber almost ofIrish. In themetropolis wholly the national elementis as high as 93-80 per cent., although and colonialelements the Irish,Scotch, numerically foreign of the are stronger than in any othertown of the United population of a cosmopolitan has the character Kingdom. Londontherefore which its cosmopolitan town,althoughthe proportion element is less than in severalprovincial bearsto the generalpopulation towns. The Native CountyElement.-Underthis term we include those of a county whoare bornwithin inhabitants it, or of a town to whichit belongs. In thecase of whoare nativesof thecounty withintwo counties we have includedthe nativesof townslying element." of " nativecounty bothundertheterm " is dependent of the " national element Whilsttheproportion of strangers fromthe sisterkingdoms or from uponthe number or town, the " nativecounty abroadwho have settledin a county of migration from to county. "element" is theoutcome county we find thatin 188125,762,415 If we analyse thecensusreturns, in whichthey in thecounties were born. wereenumerated persons
* To theseshould to thecensusof 1871, Yarmouth, Salisbe added,according Dudley, Exeter,Oxford, bury,BurySt. Edmunds,Reading, Boston,Cambridge, atnd Truro. No detailsare funishedforthesetownsfor1881

174

RAVENSTEIN-09 theLaws of Migration.

[June,

This number is equal to 73-85per cent.of thetotalpopulation of the United Kingdom,or to 74-6o per cent. of all enumerated nativesof England,Scotland,and Ireland. The following sumelement has notinconsiderably showsthatthisnativecounty mary since1871,whichshowsthatmigration decreased has increasedto a corresponding extent. The increasewas largestin England (6-3 per cent.); Scotlandfollowed next (2o percent.),and then cameIreland (i 8 per cent.),the mean for the United Kingdom havingbeen3-2percent.
1871. PerCent. PerCent. Of Of 1881 Popula. aivs tion. Naie.tion. PerCent. PerCent. of of

Popula

O Natives.

England and Wales.... 16,921,436 74'04 Scotland............ 2,315,458 68:90 Ireland.4,804,959 88.73

77'51 18,699,922 7Z oo 74X75 i 70o24 2,527,794 67.67 68X8 79 ?? 4,534,699 87X63 77.6i 25,762,415 73 85 74.6o

United Kingdom.... 24,041,853 76-36 77 ?4

The proportion of the nativeelementforeach county is shown on Map 2, and moreprecisedata will be foundin the appendix. On themapthosecounties whosenativecounty element approaches themeanfor thewholeofthe UnitedKCingdom are leftuncoloured, whilstcounties in whichit,is stronger are tintedblue,and those whereit is weakerare tintedred. The native countyelement is strongest in the moreremoteparts of the country, as in the northof Scotland,in the west of Ireland,in parts of extreme and in Norfolk. Wales,in Cornwall, Our map,we regretto say,is in a certainmeasuremisleading. A truerepresentation of thisfeature could be obtained onlyif the counties wereapproximately equal in area. It is clear, forinstance, thatif the figures givenin thecensusreturns had enabledus to divide Yorkshire intoits threeridings, the nativecounty element would have suffered a depression, whilst in the case of small counties like Rutlandshire it would relatively to larger counties appearundalyto preponderate. In the case of townsthe preponderance of the nativecounty elementdepends largely upon geographical position. A town centrally situated, and thus accessible with equal facility from all parts of its county would in the ordinary coursesecurea larger shareofthiselement thana border town. The Native TownBlemnt.-We should have liked to trace the nativesof our great townsthroughout the country, but the publishedcensusreturns only allow us to do this in the case of Londonand of seven Scotchtowns. In Londonthe nativetown

20..

THENATIVE COUNTY ELEMENT.|


50-55pc. j/

60-f Sp C. J 70Pe 670-7Sp.c. 74 -7Sp_ 8Od5pc. J5 9.0px Of

Out

YovY

_~

:~;wVe

it
JOTh.

el

Hemp

1885.1

theLaws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-On

175

elementconstitutes 6279per cent. of the general population,in the seven Scotch towns only 52-4 per cent., as follows:Aberdeen .......... 56-5 .... Dundee ...... 5 ..........5 0o8 Edinburgh-Leith Glasgow(M.B.) .......... 5I'3 Greenock(M.B.) P Perth .. 480o ........5so o

Its smallness,when compared with the native county element, very distinctlysuggests the recruiting process, which causes our towns to increase more rapidly in population than the country which surrounds them. Migration, and more especially emigration beyond the limits of the kingdom,tend to the same result. Migration properly so called is not at all excessive, for out of IOO natives of London only I9@6,and of the seven Scotch towns no more than 27-9, were enumerated outside the towns in which they were born. Emigration to the sister kingdoms or to other parts of the world is more considerableif we may judge from the fact that there are i i i females to every IOO natives of the seven Scotch towns,and I TZ to every IOO natives of London. The BorderElement includegthose inhabitantsof a county who were born in the counties contiguous to it. It varies very considerably,not only in consequence of migrationproceeding more or less actively, but also because of ths geographical configuration of the county boundaries. Counties having an extended to their area, naturallyoffer greaterfacilitips boundaryin proportion for an inflowof the border element than otherswith a restricted except boundary. A long maritimeboundaryis usually deterrent, with a countyacross the where a countyhas facile communication sea, facing it. A glance at the map showing the distributionof the Irish element in Great Britain at once brings this fact home to us. are Surrey, The countiesin whichtheborderelementis strongest Essex, Brecon, and Worcester; Dumbarton, Peebles, Selkirk, Linlithgow,Clackmannan,Kinross,Kincardine,and Nairn in Scotland; for each is given in the and Antrim in Ireland. The proportion table in the appendix under " Border Element." in GreatBritain.-The Irish elementin Great TheIrish Elemeent Britain is of considerable importance,and since 1871 it is once to the total population, at rnoreincreasing,if not proportionately all events in absolute numbers,even although the childrenborn of Irish parents in Great Britain be necessarilyexcluded,owing to the absence of data with respect to them. In 1851 there lived in Great Britain 727,326 natives of Ireland;
in 1861, 805,637;

for 1871 and 1881 were: 'numbers

in 1871, 774,310;

and in 1881, 78I,II9.

The

176

RAVENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Migration.
.
Per Cent. of Population.

[June,
PerCent. of Population.

In England and Wales........ Scotland ...............

566,540 207,770

2-49 6 i8

562,374 218,745

2X17 5.86

There are fifteencountiesin which the Irish element exceeds 3 per cent.of the total population,and fourteentowns,out of sixtysix included in our tables, in which it exceeds 5 per cent. The counties most affectedby natives of Ireland are Renfrew,Lanark and Dumbarton in Scotland, and Lancashire in England. The towns containingamong theirinhabitantsover io per cent. natives of Ireland are Greenock(19-I per cent.), Glasgow (13-1 per cent.), Liverpool (i2-8 per cent.), and Airdrie,(10-o per cent.).* There is not a single countyin which natives of Ireland have propornot found a home, whilst their geographical distribution, tionately to the total population, shows very distinctly that proximity to Ireland and facilities of commanication with the sister island most decidedly determine their numbers. Glasgow and Stranraer, Siloth and Whitehaven, Fleetwood and Liverpool, Milford Haven, Swansea, Cardiff and Bristol, Plymouth, are evidentlythe ports wheremost Southampton and Portsmouth, of these immigrants disembark, at which many of them find a theyspread permanenthome,and whence,in search of employment, to the more remoteparts of the country. This processof dispersion becomes at once clear to us when we examine a map showing the leading steamboat routes,and the proportionof emigrantswhich left each countyof Ireland for Great Britain. This last we are able to do since 1876, in which year the " Emigration Statisticsfor " Ireland " for the firsttime furnish informationon the numbers of natives of each conntyof Ireland, who have emigratedto Scotland on the one hand, and to England and Wales on the other. We have summarisedthese statisticsforsix years-1876-81. They show that of 42,297 natives of Ireland who during that period emigratedto Scotland, as many as 28,o6i were natives of Antrim, Down, Londonderry, Tyrone, and Armagh. The majority of emigrantsfromthe provinceof Ulster,and ofthe countiesof Leitrim and Longfordwho leftIreland for Great Britain went to Scotland, whilst the majorityfromthe remainderof Ireland found its way to England and Wales. Ulster, with Leitrim and Longford, in 1876-81, despatched 36,296 emigrantsto Scotland, and only 17,o86
* Of IO,OOO nativesof Irela:ndenumerated in England and WalasW as many as 5,567 lived in the forty-four great towns included in our table in the appendix.

,OEIGNATSO

COLONIES
_

"",

I ',l

THEIRISH ELEMENT
Z7Ie,g i2ctrpoerwa

_;-

IN GREAT BRITAIN.
,dfu

softk4

.*\5; Fi D^~~muli o

r~~~~~

f/jBp

~~~

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

eQ,^ An,nualAvera

.. -A-70P

Bo-flaopc.

..

| r p~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

from IELAND toi

OrMo C.zai .5

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN- On theLaws of Migration.

177

to England and Wales, whilst out of the remainderof Ireland only 6,oox went to Scotland, but as many as 35,993 to England aud Wales, and of this last number Cork alone farnished 17,29i, and Kerry, Limerick,Wexford,and Dublin 9,430 more. This renders it perfectly clear that the destination of these Irish emigrantsis most decisivelydeterminedby geographical position. So powerful is the attraction which Scotland exercises upon its nearest neighbour Antrim, that the number of emigrants who left that countyin 1876-81 for Scotland was larger than the numberwhich crossed the ocean for foreignparts or the colonies. The currents of emigrationfromWexford and Cork are affectedin a similar manner,though not to the same extent. Wexford, out of every 0oo emigrants, sends 57 abroad, 42 to England and Wales, and only one to Scotland; whilst Cork sends 6o abroad, 39 to England and Wales, and one to Scotland. The most productiverecruitinggrounds of the Irish elementin Great Britain is consequently not the west of Ireland, as had been supposed before trustworthy had been procured information by the registrar-general ior Ireland, but Ulster, Dublin, Wexford, and Cork (with Kerry and Limerick). And whilst Ulster and Dublin furnishthe bulk of Irishmen who settle in Scotland and the north of England, it is Wexford and Munster whence most of the natives of Ireland residing in southern Wales and England are derived. This origin of the Irish residents very satisfactorily explains the sporadic occurrenceof the Irish element in southern Britain. Of the Irish emigrantswho land at MilfordHaven many remain in Pembrokeshire, thus raising the Irish element in that county,whilst at the same time impelling many of its natives to migrate. Steamers from Waterford, Cork, and Wexford convey Irish emigrantsdirectto Swansea, Cardiff, and Bristol; whilstthe steamers which connect Cork with London, land many of their passengers at Plymouth, or at Southampton or Portsmouth, thus accounting for the comparative strengthof the Irish element in Devonshire and Hampshire, throughwhich latter countymany of these emigrants appear to make their way to Surrey and to London.* In the follow5ing table the leading facts connected with the of natives of Ireland in 1876-81 are summarised. It is emigration
* Map 3 is intended to illustrate the geograplicaldistribution of the Irish elementin Great Britain, proportionately to the total population of countiesalnd towns, as wellas emigration fromIreland to Great Britainas also as to foreign parts and colonies. The lowermap of Ireland exhibitsthe emigration to Great Biritain, the upperone that to foreign countries and the colonies. The tintson bothindicate theaverageannualrateof emigration forthe years1876-81per Ioo of the nativesof counties, as enumerated in 1881. The countiestintedblue are below,thosetinted red abovethe averageforthe wholecountry.

178

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

based upon the " Emigration Statistics for Ireland," prepared by Dr. Thomas W. Grimshaw, the registrar- general, with the exceptionof the last column, which is taken fromthe " Census of "Ireland, 1881, General Report," p. 379.
Emigrationof Natives of Ireland, 1876-81. AverageAnnual Rate E 1igration,

1861-81.

CAounties.
Enigland Wales.

Destinationm. Scotland.Partsand
Colonies. Foreign

Percentage.
Egngland Wales. f'oreign Parts.

Average ico County. Annual Rate Nativesofeach


Great Britain. Foreign Parts. of Population.

per

of

perioo

anid

and

Scotland.

293 Cavan ........ 646 Clare ........ 600 Cork . 17,291 JDonegal ........ 543 Down ........ 3,822 Dublin........ 3,244 406 Fermanagh Galway ........ 834 Kerry ........ i,983 Kildare ....... 617 ....... 369 Kilkenny King's........ 292 Leitrim ....... 343 Limerick ........ 2,o48 ........ Longford Ma.yo.

Armagh ....... Carlow ........

Antrim ....... 6,657 11,820


I,89 I

Londonderryi,i68 Louth ........


276

287
751 208 775

41 I 6 3,876 7,405 1 ,447 4,031 7,750 331 4,831

1,520 65 663 2,922 5,282 815 1,269 356 36 98 54 136 771 277

3,678 14

io,658
4,525

22

26,658 9,829 7,110

12,541

2,6I4 8,233

5,455 3,8z5

6 5 39 4 26 29 6 12 16 8 7 4 15 5

19 10

41
I

37
5
I

36 7
25 2

22

13,191

14,969
3,037

3 3 8 31 6 3
2 2
I

9
5

79 94 60 74 38 64 68 92 88 81 91 90 88 83 89

44 89

37

01o0 o*26 o,o8 o 62


o027 0o24

o'87 O?55

044 082

0650 1*01
1145

o053

o032 0oI7

o o8 o i6
0-20

o-o6

093 0*78 O-32 0O61 0 73 0.91 1-24 067 90 1-34 1-06

1,78
I*02 I

i*6i

1-35 I.14 117 .95

o,6o
Iz26
1

*o0

01o 00

0-67

60
92

192
399
101

Monaghan ....
Queen'8 ........

Meath ........

Roscommon ..

405

1,422 152

103

13,425
4,410

1,888 12
12 8 7

80 93 96 68 87 73 72
57

0O54 owi6 o-o8 0?05 0.33


0O10 01I

0o 2

i 68 o-88 irc8 1.4+ 148


I.33 2-04 1-02
I.49 Io90

29

1-30

0-81
0.91 0?76 0 65 0-92 093 1-16
1-01

0-42

4,071 4,2+48

iUo6
I.38 V28

Sligo ........ 233 Tipperary 1.... ,038 Tyrone ........ 1,559


Waterford ..... Wexford ........ Total.

548

Westmeath.... 276 Wicklow ........ 6z6


53,079
2,1 5

4.7

7,38I 108 7,709 60 12,3 6 3,250 10,131 50 256 44

6,817 3,463
2,858

10 7 42

3 8 7

22 2 2 I I 22 I
I

66 90 91 91 92

? ?9
0-09

o.o5

1-33

i*o6
14.44 1.30 i* 8 0.7I

O 38 o-o8 o*II
0.I3
o028

0-81
0*76

1-04

1 35

1'85

75

1,915

24

3
13

0-36

0?36

42,297 242,837 15

0-31 |O8O

142

The Scotch Element in England and Wales.-The natives of Scotland enumeratedin England and Wales in 1841 constituted o-6s per cent. of the total population. In 1881 they constitatedog98 per cent., and numbered253,528 souls. Numericallythey are not therefore very strongwhen compared with the natives of Ireland, but their geographical distributionis interesting as illustrating

ELEMENT THE SCOTCH IN ENGLAND, IN SCOTLAND, THE ENGLISHELEMENT ELEMENTINIRELAND. THE ANGLO-SCOTCH
(fin4z&nWj SooltwZ anz r e e U Zoc aook d.
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'x

1885.]

RAVENSTE1N-On theLaws of Migration.

179

the mode of migration. There are altogetherthirteencounties in which natives of Scotland number over half a per cent. of the population, and these counties formtwo distinct groups, viz., a northernone, into which the population of Scotland may be said to have overflowed,and a metropolitangroup, to which Scotch migrantshave been drawn by special circumstances. The northern group includes Cheshire and Yorkshire and all that lies to the northward,and within it reside 5,699 of every IO,OOOnatives of Scotland enumerated; the metropolitangroup includes Middlesex, Surrey,Kent, Essex, Hampshire, and Sussex, and within it 2,942 of every iO,ooO natives of Scotland were enumerated. Proportionatelyto the total populationof the counties,the Scotch element is mostnumerousin Northumberland(5 39 per cent.) and Cumberland (4+87 per cent.), that is in the border counties. It decreases as we proceed southward,amountingto 2v85 per cent. in Durham, to I'63 per cent. in Westmoreland,to i-62 per cent. in Lancashire, to z'2z per cent. in Cheshire,and to o-67 per cent. in Yorkshire. In the metropolisthe Scotch number 1c30 per cent. of the population; in Hampshire 097 per cent., a high proportion, undoubtedly due to the presence of numerous Scotch soldiers and sailors. More than one-half of the natives of Scotlanidenumerated in England and Wales (5,178 out of everyio,ooo) resided in the fortythree great towns included in our table in the Appendix, but there were onlytwo towns,Newcastle,with Gateshead,and South Shields, in which the Scotch constitutedmore than 5 per cent. of the total population. The English Elementin Scotland,proportionately to the population of Scotland, is strongerthan the Scotch elementin England, and if, as a matter of fact, the Scotch can be said to invade England, thereis a very strong counter-current of English migration into Scotland. If for every IoO Scotchmen in England and Wales there are only 36 natives of England in Scotland, the proportionwhich these latter bear to the total population of Scotland is as 2'46 to ioo, whilst the Scotch elementin England and Wales only amounts to o98 per cent. In its geographical distribution this English elementin Scotland exhibitsthe same featuresalready noticed in connectionwith the Scotch settlersin England, that is to say, it is strongestin the bordercounties. Out of 91,823 natives of England and Wales enumeratedin Scotland, as many as 57,427, or 62 per cent., reside in the counties of Berwick, Roxburgh, Dumfries,Edinburgh, Kirkcudbright, and Lanark; the proportion to the total population of these counties varying between 6'41 and 3 per cent.,and being highestin the threebordercounties. London and othermore distant parts of England have no doubt furnished their contingents to this body of English emigrants,buat it is clear

180

theLaws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-On

[June,

that the bulk of them are natives of the northof England, just as the bulk of the Scotchmen enumeratedin England came from the south of Scotland. The Anglo-ScotchElement in Ireland.-The numberof natives of Scotland and England (with Wales) enumeratedin Ireland was 88,I99 in 1871, and 91,710 in 1881, thus exhibitingan increase of 3,511 souls. This increase is largely due to an increase of the floatingpopulation as representedby the army and navy. Of the natives of Scotland and England enumeratedin 1871, I8,464 were soldiers and sailors. In 1881 the number of these had risen to 19,192. The presenceof this floatingmilitarypopulation materially the composition of several Irish counties,and more especially affects of Kildare, where the camp on the Curragh accounts for the fact that 6-13 per cent. of the total populationof the countyis of Scotch or English birth. This is a higherproportion even than in Dublin and Dublin the only countiesin Besides Kildare per cent.). (5-66 Ireland in which the Anglo-Scotch element constitutesover 7 per cent. of the total population are Antrim (7-86 per cent.), Cork (273 5 per cent.), and Down (2o02 per cent.). These are the very of migrants counties which furnishexceptionallylarge contingents who leave Ireland for Great Britain. In the five counties named 57,522 natives of Scotland and England were enumerated in 1881, being 67 per cent. of the total Anglo-Scotch element in The Foreign and Colonial Element.-This element increased between 1871 and 1881 from 277,963 to 349,750 souls, or to the extetitof nearly 76 per cent. It included in 1881 145,860 natives of British coloniesand possessions,203,890 natives of foreignparts, of whom perhaps 70,000 were " British subjects " by parentage or nationalization. The natives of " foreign parts," inclusive of persons "born at sea," increased 24-7 per cent., the natives of British possessions 26-5 per cent. The bulk of these latter is undoubtedlyof British parentage.* A considerableproportion of this elementconsists of temporary forit includes colonistsancl their children residentsin the country, on a visit to relatives at home,foreigntravellerson pleasure or on business bent, sailors,and students. At the same time the number of those who have made the United Kingdom their permanent home is considerable,and the influence which these foreignsettlers
* The censusreturns do not,unfortunately, admit of our entering into more " and occupations detailson the age",civil conditioii, detail. Ftull of " foreigners of foreign birthwhohave undergone are given,but persons the simple process of from thevoluminous are excluded naturalization tablesdealing withthesesubjects. or nationality, The questionof parentage is ignored, although all-important, and the nativesof "islands in the Britishseas" are dealt withas if Man and the a geographical unit. ChannelIslands formed Ireland.

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On the LTaulsof Migration.

181

ofthegeneral forcenturies haveexercised past uponthecharacter mustnotbe underrated.* population in The foreign and colonial elementhas its representatives in twentyare thegreattowns, but its chiefcenntres every county, or colonial birth,or eight of which i96,365 personsof foreign in 1881. London alone 56 per cent. of all, were enumerated included iii,624 of them,Liverpool 15,768,Manchester-Salford 3,440, 9,028,Edinburgh-Leith 6,165,Glasgow5,720, Birmingham the ChannelIslands) 3,271, from Hull 3,28I,Portsmouth (mostly 2,7I4, NewLeeds 3,259, West Ham 2,902, Bristol2,824, Cardiff
It will be castle-Gateshead 2,420, Brighton 2,366, Dublin 2,015. observed that all these towns are centresof business or industry, with the exception of Bath and Brighton. Classification of Migrants. Our personal experience,however limited,enables us to say that the distances which migrantstravel beforetheir place of residence is recorded in one of our periodical census returns, vary verv widely. Some of these migrants hail no fartherthan from the next parish; others are natives of a neighbouringcounty; others again have come froma more remotepart of the kingdom,or even from beyond sea. And when we inquire into the motiveswhich have led these migrantsto leave theirhomes,they will be found to be various too. In most instances it will be found that they did so in search of work of a more remunerativeor attractive kind than that afforded by the places of their birth. It may be worth of migrants. while to attempta classification himself to moving fromone part of The local migrantconfines the town or parish in which he was born to another part of the same town or parish. The only place in the United Kingdom in which we can trace this local migration on the sure foundation of the census returnsis London. Out of every IOO of the 2,40I,955 native residents enumerated in London, 59'7 were natives of Middlesex, 23x8of Surrey,and 6-5 of Kent ;t but as out of every IOO only 66-2 were enumerated as residing in Middlesex, whilst 271 were enumerated in Surrey and 6-7 in Kent, a considerable migrationfromMiddlesex into Surrey and Kent must have been going on within the limits of the metropolis. As a matterof fact only 86-7 out of every iOO natives of London thus enumerated were living on the day of the census in the countyin which they were born. That a like displacementof the population is in pro* Already in London,whichl at that in 1580 thereresided 5,o60 foreigners relatively " weretherefore more timehad 1 5o,ooo inhabitants. The " foreigners we include years ago than they are now,even though numerous threehundred of all the colonies. amongthemthenatives partsof thesecounties. t That is of the intra-metropolitan

182

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

gress in other towns of the United Kingdom cannot be doubted. That this is the case with respect to Manchester is evidenced by a decrease of the population of that town, which is more than balanced by an increase in its twin-city Salford. Similarly Glasgow grows but slowly in population, whilst its suburbs increase at a rapid rate. An interestingand suggestive paper by Dr. Longstaff, which deals with this branch of our inquiry,will be found in the " Charity Organisation Reporter" for 1883 and 1884. Short-journey Migrants.-If our census returns enabled us to analyse the inhabitants of each parish or registrar's district according to birthplaces, we should findthat the bulk of migrants had journeyed but a verylittle distance. Even with counties as large as Yorkshire, and with no informationon the migration which goes on across the Scotch border, we find that of every Ioo migrants enumerated in England and Wales, as many as 53 7 bad gone no further than a border county. In Scotland 6or8 per cent. of all migrantswere enumeratedin bordeti counties; in Ireland 40-2 per cent. The low proportion for Ireland is ascribable to the migration from Ireland to Great Britain, and would at once be reversedif we treated Lanark and Lancashire as border counties of Ireland. The distributionof the migrants for the whole of the United Kingdom is exhibitedin the followingtabular statement:of Migrants Enumerated in Proportion Elsewhere Border Sister Counties. in Kingdoms. sameKingdom.

Migrants of Anglo-Welsh birth ........ ,, Scotchbirth. ,, Irish .................... ,, British , ....................

46'o

52.4
i6'2

45-1
29-8

46 2

24,1 39 9

z4-2

2-5

59 7 13'9

The proportionsrefer,as a matterof course, to migrationfrom county to county only. Fortunatelythe proof that migrants are as a rule contentwith going but a veryshort distance fromtheir homes is furnished by the census of Holland. Of every ioo migrants enumeratedin Holland in 1879, 69 resided outside the communein which theywere born,but in the same province,and only 3I had left their native province.* Applying these proportions to the United Kingdom, 57 per cent. of all migrantswould
* On an averageeach province of Holland has an area of I,150 squaremiles and 384,000 inbabitants. The averageforthe counties of the UnitedKingdom is 1,030 square milesand 298,ooo inhabitants.Provincesand countiesare cousequently fairly comparable.

r k~

~~~~~~ J~~~~~< \1)~~~~b

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

183

in whichtheywereborn,i8 per cent.in resideoutsidethe parish and 275 per cent. elsewhere. Of course these bordercounties, in excess but they are hardly are not absolutely correct, figures of consists of thetruth. They provethat the bulk of migrants I designateas short-journey what,for want of a betterterm, migrants.* thata migrant in search happens byStages.-It often Migration downat eachplace to parish, settling from parish ofworkwanders fora time,until on the day whenthe censusis takenhe finds started. he originally which the place from himself far awayfrom if notmostof the thatmany instance, for Therecan be no doubt, their in Londondid nottravelfrom natives of Irelandto be found but place of residence, homesin Ireland directto theirpresent and reachedit by stages. Some of themlanded at Liverpool, Warwick, Stafford, Cheshire, waythrough workedtheir gradually and perhaps another stream, whilst and Buckingham, Northampton, Hampshire, Plymouth, one,passed through the morevoluminous and Surrey. to settle who leave theirhomesin order migrants Long-journey nottherule,and are theexception, in a distant partofthecountry 25 per cent. of all migrants. Their do not probably constitute some of upon special circumstances, are dependent movements in thesequel.t we shallconsider which is class,whoseexistence are an important migrants Temporary vouchedfor by the size of our hotels,barracks,prisons,and of whommust of sailors, many as well as by the number colleges, in which at ports lyingoutsidethe counties havebeenenumerated thefloating constitute migrants theywereborn. These temporary whichis swampedin large townsof of the population, element decisively at feltvery butmakesits presence complex composition, in resorts, at healthand pleasure stations, our naval and military in boarding schools. It and in placesabounding towns, aniversity amongstrangers dwellers of thesetemporary is a specialfeature and notbychoice. by compulsion thatmanyof themare migrants forKentand Surrey, leave London The hop-pickers, whoannually whoassist labourers from theWestofIreland, and theagricultural
* Migration in Hollandis goingon at a farless activeratethanin theUnited as go live in theirnativeprovince, of Holland,as many Kingdom.Of 1oo natives whilstof i oo nativesof the United Kingdom,only 75 live in their native county. is madeto appearlargerthan of thesemigrants t In ourtablesthe proportion times a "borderzone" five it reallyis. Had we beenin a positionto substitute by arbitrary for " bordercounties" bounided the area of the centralcounty, a truer measureof this element. we mighthave obtained politicalboundaries, mapswillshow, to do. A glance at our migration This we foundit impossible distanceare few a considerable came from that the migrants whoreally bowever, to thepopulation them. in proportion which absorbed PART II. 0 VOL. XLVIII.

184

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

in getting in the harvest in the North of England, belong to this class. Countiesof Absorption and Dispersion. Whilst migrationmay be said to be going on in everyportion of the United Kingdom, there exist nevertheless vast and striking differences with referenceto its extent and direction when we compareone part of the countrywith another. There are counties which retainnearly the whole of theirnative popalation, and even receive an accessionfrom othercounties; counties from which broad currentsof emigrationproceed, compensated in some measure by counter-currents of immigration; and counties which appear to be traversedby these migratory currents. Of the natives of Lancashire, the Shetland Islands, of Kerry, and of eleven other Irish counties, less than IO per cent. were enumerated outside the counties in which they were born; whilst over half the natives of Peebles and Kinross had establishedthemselves beyond the boundariesof their native counties. These are the extremes,and between them all gradations will be found to exist in apparently inextricable confusion. We will attempt to bring somethinglike orderinto this chaos. There are counties which increase their population not merely by an excess of births over deaths, but also by the reception and absorption of migrants from other counties. Counties such as these we will call " counties of absorption,"whilst the counties at whose expense they are fed and grow populous we will call " countiesof dispersion."X A countyof absorptionhas a population more or less in excess of the numberof its natives enumeratedthroughout the kingdom. In. a countyof dispersion, on the other hand, the population falls short of the number of natives enumerated throughout the kingdom. If the natives of each countynow scatteredthroughout the kingdom could be made to return to the counties in which they were born, the population of the counties of absorption (tinted blue on Map 6) would dwindle away, whilst that of counties of dispersion (tinted red) would increase to a corresponding extent. The natives of Surrey enumerated throughout England and Wales number 996,655, but Surreyhas a populationof 1,436,899. Consequently,even thoughall the natives of Surreywere to return to the countyof their birth,it would still be necessary to retain within its limits 440,244 natives of other counties, equivalent to 30-7 per cent. of all inhabitants,in orderto maintainits population at its presentlevel. Surrey,therefore, is a countyof absorption. Radnorshire,on the otherhand, is represented by 33,974 natives

ANDDISPERSION. ABSORPTION
Me CounMw tmtv4 B lue ahsorb mpa,tts fromn &4e Countoes tCtnedRea. -ate S at?an i awc 2rr AyhAwd, 4aus to be took*d at as th t -s pw M<ap 1.

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1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

185

dispersed throughoutEngland and Wales, whilst its population only numbers 23,5 8 souls. The natives thereforeare 43-7 per cent. in excess of the population of the county, and Radnorshire be describedas a countyof dispersion.* may fitly The following tabular statement is intended to present the leading facts connected with the dispersion and absorption of migrants:
COUNTIESOF ABSORPTION.t tt Surrey........ ......... 6-9 30-7 . ttYorkshire ........ 26-7 +ttChesbire. 5 t Glamorgan ltDurham ......... i-9 .tWarwick .......... 5-5 t t Lancashire........ I8 t*Susse l t Middlesex ........ I 7 7 + Monmouth ........ 8-o . I *Carnarvon.. 5It*Kent ........ 7-9 *Hampshire........ 4-7

ofthe ofCounties short of Counties, in per Cents. Natives Population


t*Essex ........... 4-4 t*Derby ............ 29 t Nottingham.... 2-7 * Merionethr.. i8 Northumber1 land.......... 4 ........ 03 Stafford Bute ........
*Kirkcud

........ t Selkirk 37-6 tLanark ..... Z9-Z ........ Z8 9 tEdinburgh


ttDublin........
itCork ........
3I-8

+ t Renfrew .......1..

+tDumbarton ........z6z

ttForfar......
Louth *J

- 155
... 3-3

I 73

- t bright ....J

I 2-9
,

t Antrim .........

Waterford ........ 3-6


3-4

15-9

.............. 5 : t * King's..............I.* 5 t *Sligo ............. og

* Londondery

t Galway ........... o z
*Roscommon

Limerick........0-o7 *Kildare ........... o 6


.... o0z

* Sir Brydges P. Henniker, the registrar-general, considers thatthosecounties "in whichthe actual growth, as shownon enumeration, was in excess of the "natural growth," from absorbed without " overand abovetheir population native "product." (" Censusof Englandand Wales,"iv, p. 51.) He describes London, Sussex,Essex,Leicester, Notts, Cheshire, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Glamorgan, Derby, as counties of absorption. We include, in addition and Carnarvon, to these, Monmouth, and Stafford, Warwick, Hampshire, Merioneth, Northumberland, but place Leicestershire of Leicestershire amongcolntiesof dispersion.The actual growth to theextent the natural of 4,957 souls. This, (1871-81) certainly exceeded growth however, is by no meansa proofof absorption, forwe findthat the enumerated natives of Leicestershire were 332,902, whilstthe population of the county only cannottherefore nnmbered haveabsorbed migrants. As 321,258. Leicestershire a matterof fact,85,772 nativesof Leicestershire were enumerated outsidethe of Leicestershire whilstthe population onlyincluded74,i28 persons who county, werenotnatives of the county. in which the agricultural classis abovethe average of the kingdom t Counties are marked increases *; counties more whose, population rapidly (or,in the case of Ireland,decreases at a slowerrate) than throughout each kingdom at large,are marked t; counties whosenatives increase similarly, are marked t. We observe oncemorethat in compiling thistableno notice could be takenof migration from kingdom to kingdom. Had we been able to trace the migrants from and Roxburgh, Northumberland intoBerwick it is probable that thatcounty wouldhavetakenits placeamongcounties of dispersion. Our inability of tracing the nativesof Irish countiesin Great Britain affects even more seriously the relative position of manyof the Irish counties, severalof which, as unitsof the would have to be described United Kingdom, as " counties of dispersion," being of absorption to therestof Ireland. counties onlyrelatively

o2

186

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws

of Migration.

[June,

COUNTIES OF DISPERSION.*

Natives in excess of Counties ofthe Populationof(Counties, in per Cents. *Radnor ... *Cardigan 43-7 .......... 23-3 . Lincoln ........... 14-3
*Hunts . ...... 33-5 *Rutland................-33'5 .. 27-4 #Wilts * Salop .. 26-4 *Bucks........ 24 8 ? Norfolk 24-8 ........
*Suffolk ........ 24-8 * Montgomery ........ 24-5

* Pembroke ..........

#Dorset ...........

29

*Hereford ..........2

222 zI4

*Oxford........ ? Cambridge ........

24-1

23-4

* Westmoreland .... 2I-2 *Anglesey. ........ 20I1 * Carmarthen ........ I9 5 * Somerset......... 173 * Cornwall........ i6,9 * Bedford ........ I6h4 * Brecknock 4-6 ........1

*Devon ........... 13 9 * Herts ............ II3 *Flint........... 9'8 * Northampton . 9-5 * Denbigh ........ 8-z * Berks ........... 8-i .... 5 9 .Gloucester * Worcester ........ 3-6 t.*Leicester........ 3*6 * Cumberland .... 1I7
.

*Kinross......... 26-i *Banff 2z,8 ........ *Kincardine ........ 20'2 * Sutherland . 195 *Ross ..............55 * Caithnegs.n -.....154! Perth .......

* Berwick I3-9 ........ * Fife ........ 6-8 97 *Wigtown........ 74 S. Ayr....................... *7-

Linlithgow .... 4-8 t* Peebles ........... 4-2 t Stirling ........... 40 * Inverness.... 9 * Elgin ....... 26 * Roxburgh . ....... Aberdeen ........v

......... *Argyle ........---.---.14-4 * Dumfries


14-2

Orkney.

69
6'2

. * Nairn

26
2-2

4Clackmannan ........ 4 9
t+Down.........

i1

........9.2..... #Queen's * Wexford....... 6-9 *Westmeath ....... 6-7 *Monaghan 6 ....... z..... 6

*Wicklow ........ 5-3 *Carlow ........ 135 I *Meath.......... .. 3 3.1

* Cavan .........

* Tyrone.........

*Kilkenny......... Armagh ......... *Fermanagh........ * Clare.......... t

5-6 *Donegal ........ I * 5 * Tipperary ........ I-9 5-o * Leitrim ......... I*9 45 * Longford ........ i 6 4-I 6 2erry. z i tt*Mayo........... o

" are the chiefseatsof commerce The " counties of absorption and industry.The agricultural classwithinmost of themis less numerously represented than in the country at large. The few agricultural countiesincluded under this class, such as Kent, Sussex,Derby, and Essex,are notwithout theirindustrial centres. The population of thesecounties increases at the sametimeat a rate exceeding that of the generalincrease. In Irelandthese features are obscured owingto the vast amountof migration to GreatBritain. The vigour withwhichthe process of absorption is goingon in themetropolitan counties, in Glamorgan, Durham, and Lancashire, in certain Scotchcounties, and in Dublinand Antrim, is deserving
no less than the feeblenessto be observedelsewhere. attention, Very different are the features presented by the counties of dispersion,from which the counties of absorption are being fed.
* See note(t) on preceding page.

of NativesofeachCounty dteProportion exibihtng


E]jlg d aa4Zr2aw4? Atobe Scoetznd Zvo asd
(inl B1:outBiaethe Ctj ewnammated

MIGRATION-MAP}
t 9spazraz g
oftheir Birth

Map4

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1885.]

RATENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Jigratioon.

187

all of them agricultural, and their population They are nearly1 increases but slowly or is retrogressive. There are a few exceptions,but none in the case of counties fromwhich the process of dispersionis going on most vigorously. Counter-Currents of Migration. We have already had occasion to referto the fact that side by side with each main stream or currentof migrantsthere runs a counter-current, which more or less compensates for the losses is strong in some sustainedby emigration. This counter-current in a few instances. cases, weak in otbers,and literallycompensatory Its universal existenceis proved by the fact that there is no county in England in which the native county element exceeds go per cent. and none in the United Kingdom in which it exceeds 97 per cent. This counter-carrent is not by any means composed of migrantswho return homeward disappointed in theirhopes or in the possession of a competency, for ex-migrantsof this class are included in the native county element, and no data for even approximately determining their number are in our possession. It includes, no doubt, many children of migrants,who have gone to the countiesin which their parents were born,but the bulk of these migrants undoubtedly consists of persons whom business interests take away from their homes. But although we readily understand why the manufacturersof Yorkshire and Lancashire send persons to London to look after their interests,whilst the merchantsof London despatch agents and buyersto the manufacturing districts, the grounds, which lead to an "exchange" of natives butweencounties so far removed from each other as are, for instance, Dorsetshireand Westmoreland, are not quite so easily understood. Yet fifty-five Dorsetshiremenwere enumerated in and twenty-sixnatives of Westmorelandin Dorset. Westmoreland, Even the miniature county of Rutland has its representativesin every countyof England and Wales, with the sole exception of Carnarvon and Radnor, and natives of all these counties were likewise enumeratedin Rutland. In the case of London, both the main and the counter-currents flowwith considerablevigour. In 1881 584,700 natives of London were enumeratedin other parts of England and Wales, whilst the migrants from the country who resided in London numbered I,1 64,07oI. The main currentsof migrationflowin every instance, with one single exception,Londonward,the exception being extrametropolitani Surrey. The numbersfor each group of countiesare furnishedin the followingtable:

188

theLaws oj Migration. RAVENSTEIN-On


ofthe Natives &c. Counties,
London.

[June,
of Proportioni every

in Enumerated 97,736

London Migrants Country Enumerated to in from London


Country.

of Natives the

IOO

Immigrants.

Middlesox. Extra-metropolitan ... . Surrey Essex .. Herts. ....


Kent .95505

63,284
92,553 35793

94,848 66,476 83,326 14,845 314,133


113,572 24,972 45,974 54,638

105 57 go 4I 29 i8 40

97

Midland group...............,,.,.,,, .32,506 North-western group North-eastern ,, .48,071 Wales ...............,,.,,....

Inner belt of counties ..................... South-wvestern group. Outer belt .115,629

group............................ Metropolitan

384,87I 380,427 137,z26

82

3 I794
23,547 1,164,071

17,623 28,6.86 31,796 7,944

56 88
66

34
50

584,700

and inflow, are far above the average. In 1881 14,272 natives of Peebles were enumeratedin Scotland, of whom only 6,709 resided in the countyof their birth,and 7,563 in other parts of Scotland. But as Peebles had a population of 13,688, no fewer than 6,979 persons enumerated within its borders,were found to be natives of other parts of the world, and of these 6,370 were natives of Scotland. Peebles is thereforeclassed by us as a "county of " dispersion," and, like Perthshire, it is at the same timea " county of passage;" for whilst the migrants who cross its borders for Edinburgh, Linlithgow, Selkirk, Kirkcudbright, Renfrew, and Dumbarton, outnumberthe immigrantsfrom these counties, the immigrationfrom the rest of Scotland is in excess of the emigration. A kind of balance-sheet of these opposing currents is presentedin the followingtable:
are givenin the table,p. 210. * The detailsforeach county

who settlein strangers We thus see that foreveryhundred and thatover of Londonleave themetropolis, natives fifty London, by the counterno further are carried one-half of thesemigrants counties. Many,if not thanone of thefivemetropolitan currents suburbs, to what are actually removed havemerely mostof them, and can hardlybe said to have leftthe metropolis. Relatively whichset towardsthe manufacstrongare the counter-carrents and YorkLancashire towards and moreespecially districts, turing are of migrants thatthemovements oncemore shire. This proves considerations.* by business in mostinstances governed to the to go to Scotland, I propose For our secondillustration outflow and immigration, where bothemigration of Peebles, county

ANDDUBLIN. PERTHSHIRE DEVON-CORNWALL,


i/a

OF MIGRANTS DISPERSION from


aeff 7t*inAdC46h oepropottieOm
l

w zv ti4AcAfte^y
WZ to be
i7ke

(X%gtnd,6"o&LclI4

as 3 Jqporote 31 ap

wtiet ApdaktoAa enzGrn4razaw'

p0 - 0O7Op OS '5O-O70pc

t4zdar(.BOp.c'. .020-040p.c. ,o'.-#o -otop. c v

-O-

iOOOp.c s

2-3p.c.
-~~C s>0^Op
-

OvJr5pc,

;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~4

t qisDEV

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

189

of Proportion of Selkirk ofother Natives Natives Selkirk from Enumerated Migraints partsof Scotland i0o Natives of to every in other parts in Enunmerated parts. ofother Scotland. Selkirk.

.............. Selkirk . Edinburgh ................... Linlithgow .................... KirkcQdbright ....... ............. Renfrew .................... Dumbarton Roxburgh .................... Dumfries .................... Wigtown .,, ....... Berwick ............. Haddington .................... ........ Lanark ........... ............ Ayr ........ ....... Stirling ............. Argylland Bute ................ ........ division Midland East division ............ North-east Ross and Inverness ............ division ................ Northern

43I
I,504

104 58 i6
27

672 3,713 109 62 86 50 250 180

I56
247 2 29

105

I48 312 44 50 85
41

564 359 13 214 195 I,786 103 io8 52


521
52

175 76

88 153 1,544 80 90 38 337 56 22 22 7,563

11

78 86 78 83 73 65 32
z9

42

6,370

19

The Dispersionof MigrantsIllustrated. The countyof Dublin, which we select as our firstillustration of dispersion, has a population of 4I8,gIo souls; and as only 285,528 natives of it were enumerated in 1881 as residing in Ireland, it has been classed by us among " counties of absorption." Of the enumerated natives of Dublin, 259,246 resided within the countyin which they were born, 26,283 in other parts of Ireland. Of the migrants as many as 7,I95, or 27X39 per cent., were enumerated in the border counties of Wicklow, Kildare, and Meath; 3,954, or 15*5 per cent., were found to reside in an outer belt of counties, including, Louth, Westmeath, King's, Queen's, per cent.,had settled in the counties and Carlow; 6,i1, or 23X25 Cork, and Longford; Waterford, of Wexford,Kilkenny, Tipperary, and 9,022, or 34-30 per cent., had scattered themselves over the whole remainder of Ireland. But as the number of migrants which any county is able to absorb depends very largely upon population,just as a large sponge will absorb more water than a small one, we obtain a more correct insight into the extent of migration if we compare the number of migrantswith the total population of the counties in which they settle down. We then find that the natives of Dublin enumerated in the three border counties amountedto 3-8 per cent. of the total population of these counties, whilst in the outer belt they only mustered 1-15 per

190

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

cent.,in the thirdgroup of countieso 56 per cent.,and in the of Ireland0o29 percent. remainder this dispersion And whenwe examine Map 9, whichillustrates of once struck of Dublin,we are akt of thenatives by thedecrease theonly thecentre of dispersion, migrants as we travelawayfrom and thatnota verystriking by the exception, one,beingpresented the tableexhibits ofAntrim. The following county Dublin Dispersion of the Migrants from County.
M,grants. Migrants. Wicklow .2,849 Kildare. cent. oP ofMigrants. 10,84 9 33

Per Cent.

of of Population Co.nties.
4'04

PerCent.

Meath.1,894

2,452

7-22

2i 6

3.23

Bordercounties..... Louth.906 Westmeath .798 King's.874 Queen's .863 .51. Carlow Second belt Wexford .969 .550 Kilkenny .1,082 Tipperary Waterford .603 Cork .2,567 Longford .341 Thirdbelt Rest of Ireland Total .26,z83

7.'95

27,39 3A46 3 04 3,33 3,28


194

3.o8

V20
I*10

Ivi8

3,954

15-05 3x69 210 4,12 2,29 9,76 1-30

l1i5 o078 o.55


054 0-i3
0o52

o056
0o56
0-29

6, 112
9,022

23-26 34 30 100 00

o'*55

fromthe countiesof We will next considerthe migration Devonshireand Cornwall. In 1881 240,930 natives of these were enumerated in otherparts of England and Wales, counties whilst the number of strangers settledin Devon-Cornwall wap is thus a regionfromwhich a only 100,564. Devon-Cornwall broad streamof migration flowsto otherparts of England and Wales. As Somersetand Dorset,and indeed a broad belt of as far as the GermanOcean, north-eastward country stretching send fortha larger numberof migrantsthan they receive in whilstSouth Wales and south-eastern return, England,with the of migrants are the great absorbents most readily Metropolis, it mightbQ presumed withinreachof natives of Devon-CornwatU,

LONDON,GLASGOWAND DUBLIN
T;de 7*44z-< &14-4AZ e/
tn.L ondon,
Utf5ogoV,

MIGRATION INTO
efi

oam, fbo
0PrVX

mU mop
^@'

tjti,ou'u^* C

rwivoi

I/pdg, 3p.c
6-7pc , z

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.?
3 teL#
a*c

Shetl4

Jva'

c 2 2S p . O p C. cX 25- 3,9!

--k zns Ov kn~~

2(y-2 Sp c -JS i-2 4 0.C.


C

45-5-P C C O,va,rsop

0j-4.ip

'IV

~~~~~

"

LiL

1885.]

RAYENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

191

that the bulk of the latter would have proceeded thither,to the utter neglect of the border counties. Such, however,is not the case. Somerset, proportionatelyto its population, has absorbed more migrants from Devon-Cornwall than any other county in England; and if Glamorgan ranks above Dorset in that respect, this is due quite as much to the proximity of the Welsh county, and the facilitywith which it can be reached, as to the attraction which it exercises as a field for remunerativelabour. Map 9 shows very clearly by its tints that the great currents which carrythe migrantsof Devon-Cornwall along with them set across the Bristol Channel to South Wales, up the valley of the Severn in the direction of Warwickshire, and through Dorset, Hampshire,and Surrey to London. The more distant fromthe fountain head which feeds them, the less swiftlydo these currentsflow; and whilst they sweep along with them many of the natives of the counties through which they pass, they deposit, in their progress, many of the migrants which had joined them at their origin. In this way x8,687 natives of Devon,Cornwall were found in 1881 to have been "deposited " in Somerset, whilst 33,728 natives of the latter county were enumerated in Gloucester. Similarly,the gaps created in the population of Dorsetshire by a migration of 19,476 natives of that county into Hampshire had partly been filledup by an immigration of 4,355 iiatives of DevonCornwall. And thus it happens that even in the case of " counties " of dispersion,"which have population to spare forothercounties, there takes place an inflowof migrantsacross the borders,and this inlflowis most considerable across that borderwhich lies furthest away fromthe great centresof absorption. On examining Map 9 it will be found that proportionately to the population migrantsfromDevon-Cornwall are more numerous in certain parts of the northof England than in the centreof the kingdom. It is clear that the " facilities" enjoyed by maritime counties for cheap transitby sea have something to do withthis. It is clear likewise that among the natives of Devon-Cornwall enumerated in the ports of north England there must be many sailors. We look, however, to the decay of the mining industry in Cornwall as to the principal cause of this comparative preponderance. In 1871 therewere 25,643 minersin Devon-Cornwall, in 1881 only I4,976; and many who lost their employment at home, appear to have gone to the mining districtsof the north in search of work. The following is a tabular statementof the

192

RAVENSTEIN-On she Laws oj Migratiotn. fromDevon and Cornwall. Dispersion of the Mfiqrants
M igralits. Migrants.

[June,

Per Cenit. of 1'np)iihitinii . ~~~of Coulnties. of Migranits.

1'er Cenit.

uu ..............................I.17,145 Ghllmorgll .......... Sollier8et................... ............... Dorsct ............. 3oder eotiiities.................


Gloucester .................................... ........................ Monluiloutll Lower Severn .................... ......... Hampslhire ............... ........ Surrey (extra-miietropolitan) ............. London ........... Middlesex (extra-metropolitan).. Kent (extra-metropolitan) ........ ............... Sussex ......... South-east England 1........ -. I17,856 ..... Lancashire ...... Cumberland ........................ Westniorelandc .......................... -.............. Yorkshire ..... ............. Durhai- ........... Northumberland ........................ North England ...............Rest of England and Wales Total
......................0..

18,697 4.35 55
40,19 7

7-76 1 81 16;69 514 1,36

7,12

3*3.5 3'98 2z 8 3-43 vl6 4 2o00


2.04

12,390 3,z56 15,646


12,25

6-50 6-03 2-65 31-33 2-40 3-08 1-82 46-31 7 40 1-24 0-05 4X39 2'62 1-04 16-74 13-76 100 00 0.5l

75,490 5,790 4,391

6,380

7,414

45 i'98 *z 3

o89
171

1X04

11l590 .997
115

x0,559
6,302 ,5 I6

l*20 o i8 0o36
0.73

c 5
0.51 0.344

40,345
33,152

........

40930

o096

For our third illustration we go to Perthshire in Scotland. That countyhas a population of 130,282 souls, and as its natives, as far as they were enumerated in Scotland, numbered 148,835 souls, it is classed by us as a "county of dispersion." But whilst Devon-Cornwall may justly be said to feed all the counties of England and Wales, Perthshire only feeds a portion of those of Scotland, and is itselfbeing fed by others. In sixteen counties the natives of Perthshireare more numerousthan the natives of these counties enumeratedin Perthshire. Within this group of counties there resided in 1881 49,525 natives of Perthshire,whilst the compensating counter-currentsof migration had brought into Perthshire only 22,559 natives of the whole of them. Perthshire had thus sustained a loss of 26,966 souls. The remainingHighland counties,on the otherhand, had sent 6,007 of their natives into Perthshire,only receiving3,253 of that county in return. The correspondingfigures for the remaining

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Migration.

193

Lowland countieswere I,I94 and 1,070. From these two sources had consequentlyobtained an accession of 2,878 inhabiPerthshire tants,reducingits absolate loss to 24,o88 souls. It is clear fromthis that whilst currentsof migration set into Perthshire from the north,much strongercurrentsflowout of it into its eastern and southern border counties. The immigration fromcertain Lowland counties constitutesa special feature. The proportions for each countyare as follows:

inross .I. Clackmannan Forfar .-..... .8....... Stirling Fife. Edinburgh -.......-.-. . . fed DPumbarton Lanark... ............ Countbes . PerthYhire rerhshre. Peebles........... Linalithgow Haddington
Bute.09

Per Cent. of all Migrantsfrom Perthshire.

Per Cent. of Population of Counties.

3025

3*75

84

14-34

8-56 759 I 3'84


21 I19'47

Selkirk .o Renfrew ........ .o46 Roxburgh Berwicki. Argyle ..57 Kincardine Inverness. Nairna. . . Elgin: Sutherland o* Aberdeen .............. Ross ......-.*...... .oI Caithness Banff. Shetland . . Orkneyn

6 oOz 073 0 46 ol
28 2-35

030 043 T 02

4-55 2,51 2-01 1 54 1.17 1006 0,94 0O68 0,62 0-60 0 59 50 047 1.10 0,69 067 0 53 0 50 0 31 0-29 0-27 0 20 0.15 0 06 0-06 0 35 0 29 027 018

6-40

8,86

Highland counties whichfeed Perthshire.

oo8 04O 12 I36 0-38 3 o i6 03 3


I 9 o 02

Dumfries ..47 counties J Ayr. whichfeed Kirkcudbright Perthshire. Wigtown .oI2

Lowland

The Absorption of MigrantsIllustrated. The process of absorption is the inverseof that of dispersion, and presents and resemblesthe latterinasmuch as growingtowns absorb the migrantsfromtheir environsor borders or countiesfirst before they call upon the resources in mnen of the more distant parts of the country. The county of Warwickshire, which we select on account of its central positionas an illustrttionof this

194

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of hfigration.

[June,

process,has a population of 737,339 souls; and as the number of enumerated nativesof Warwickshire throughout England and Wales only amountsto 696,710,it is classed by us as a " countyof absorp. " tion." As a matterof fact,however,it acts as a feeder to two important groaps of counties, one of which includes the leading manufacturing districtsin the North of England, whilst the other embraces the metropolitan counties,with Essex, Sussex, and Hampin shire. In 1881 37,2 i8 natives of Warwickshirewere enumerated thefirst of these groups,and 37,308 in the second,whilstonly21,859 natives of the firstand 21,132 of the second were enumeratedin Warwickshire. The county in its exchange of population with these two groups had thus sustained a loss of 31,535. This loss, however,was more than made good by an excessive immigration from the remainderof England and Wales. The border counties alone sent ix6,668migrants,whilstreceivingonly87,457 in return. In the following tabular statement we have distinguished the countieswhichfeed Warwickshirefromthosewhichare fed by it:of Percentage Percentage Percentage of of Natives of Mligr-ants Number. Population frooms of Groups of of Grus Warwick. of Counties. Counties.

of Natives

Warwickshire ............

518,436

7O31 58 z 1 90 054
0-7I

74 41 4 12 213 0-28 14'47 6oi Vzo


1-30
I

Counties which feed Warwickshire 1 . ..................116,668 Bordercounties X Countieson Welsh border2 .... 13,974 Wales ......... ............. 3,989 South-western 8,809 England3 ........... Midland4.. .. South-eastern 6,480 Eastern counties5 .................... 5,170 Northern counties6 1,091 .................... Counties fed by WarwickshireNorthern dismanufacturing 21,859 tricts 7.f............... Metropolitan groups ................ 21,132 Scotland .............. . Ireland ........................ Otherparts ........................ 2,908 9,628 7,0959

o-89

*20

0-40

0-15

0-17

0,67 0-29

0-59 1.97 133

o'95

71

2'96
2'86 03 9

0-29 0-36
-

1 31 o096

......... Total
2 3

737,339

I oo'oo

Shropshire, Hereford, and Monmouth. Wilts, Somerset, Dorset,Devon,Cornwall. 4 Rutland. Hunts, Beds, Herts,Bucks, Berks. a Lincoln,Cambridge, Norfolk, Suffolk. 6 Cumberland, Westmoreland, Northumberland. 7 Cheshire, Lancashire,Derbv, Notts,York, Durham. 8 Middlesex, Essex,Surrey, lKent, Sussex, Rants. 9 Inclusiveof i,907 nativesof England whoseplace of birthis notknown.

1 Gloucester, and Worcester. Oxford, Northampton, Leicester,Stafford,

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

195

Furtherillustrations of " absorption" will be given in connection with the large towns. Migrationand theNatives of Towns. of the numberand distribution The census returnsonly furnish the natives of London and of seven Scotch towns,viz., Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh-Leith,Glasgow, Greenock,Paisley, and Perth. The resultshave been embodiedby us in the table below. Towns. Composition of thePopulationt of Londonand of SevenScotch
London. Natives of Number. Per Aberdeen. Number. Per Dundee. Number. Per Edinburgh-Leith. Number. Per

Cent. 62-9
IO-3

Cent. 56.5 22z2


i-o

Cet.
55-1 i6-i

Cent. 50.8
5-0

Town .2,401,955 Rest of county Border counties Rest of kingdom .... England and Wales .

394,871* _ 777,699 49,554t

20 4 2zI 2-9 i oo0o


I.3

59,485 23,333 11,543 6,509

6-2

77,201 15,353 22,655 9,627

IO-9 6-9 2o 8z2

146,416 14,423 44,067t 53,703 '14,193

I5*3
18.5

Ireland. Otherparts .111,626


Total
1881....................

80,778

715 1,097
105,189

2,507

2-4 0-7
i*0

11,443 1,095
140,239 8O-I

2,865

o8
I oo0o

8,875 6,165

49
3.1

2-5

population, }

3,816,483

ioo-o

287,842 75 3
113 I

i oo-o

Proportion of the natives ofthetownenumerated

born,in per cent .......... Females to 100 males) among al natives (n among native tow(n I13 element) ... J._

in the townin which

74o5 8O4 o0758i75 I 12 (I9) I


5)

17)
Perth.

Glasgow(M.B.). Natives of Number. Per Ceiit.

Greeniock (MB). Number. Per Cent.

Paisley. Number. Per Ceiit.

Seven Scotch Tow". Number Per Cent.

Number.

Per Cent.

Town............. 262,146 5 1'3 33,309 5O0O 34,362 6i*8 13,897 480o Rest ofcounty... .... ?51,607 io-I 3,439 5'I 3,969 7. I 6,430 22 5
Border counties ........ 1168,518 13 3 10,515 Rest of kingdom ... 41,327 8-i 5,758 England and Wales Ireland ............ Other parts...... Total 16,026 67,109 4,682 2,097 13.1 10,717 869 o_9
3.1 I00
0

626,816 52'4
118,554 169,242 122,927

15.8 8-6
3.1 I3

8,196 3,016

14.8

5-4 J.5

3,748 2,987 849 850 219

12-6 103 2v9 2-9 o8

9-9 i42z 103 8.7 rz


3'3

i 6-i

850 4,994 251

04

g9o

39,387 104,703 14,378

population, 511,415 18 1.................... .

66,704 IOO1o 55,638 ioo0


1.6355Z27I 719 I I4 (I02) _ _ _

28,980 i0 o0

1,196,007 i0ooo
72. IIl. (1I0)

of the natives) Proportion of the tovWn enumerated 0 in the town in which 70I born,in percent.. Females to 100 males among all natives (and i Io8 (Oo8) amnong native town( J element) ... __...... J_
*

635
I12 (II) _

5Z2
115 (114)

Including extra-metropolitanMiddlesex, Surrey and Kent, Essex and Hertford. I Including Fife. t Natives of Scotland. ? Including Lanark and Renfrew. 11 Including Argyll and Bute.

196

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

At the firstglance it would almost appear as if the natives of in theirhabits than the natives of the towns were more migratory country,forwe find that as many as 27-9 per cent. of the natives of the Scotch towns were enumerated outside the town in which theywere born,whilst the proportionfor the natives of counties averages only 25 6 per cent. But it is evident that towns cannot be compared with entire counties, but must be compared with enabling rural parishes,and were we in possession of information us to do this, we should undoubtedly find that the natives of towns are more sedentaryin their habits than are the natives of the country. As to female emigration we find that females are more than males, foramong the natives of the seven Scotch migratory towns there are I I x females to every [oo males, whilst among the native town elementthere are only I IO. For London these figures
are 112 and IO9.

Female Migration. Woman is a greater migrant than man. This may surprise those who associate women with domestic life, but the figuresof the census clearlyprove it. Nor do women migrate merelyfrom the rural districtsinto the towns in search of domestic service, for they migrate quite as frequentlyinto certain manufacturing districts,and the workshop is a formidablerival of the kitchen and scullery. Amongst the natives of England and Wales enumerated throughoutthe United Kingdom in 1881 there were io6 females to every ioo males, amongst the natives of Scotland io8, and amongst those of Ireland 103. The large preponderance of females among the Scotch distinctly points to an extensive emigrationto foreign countries; and those who have experienced the ubiquity of the Scot in the militaryand civil servicesof his country,in the mercantile marine, in commercial and all other pursuits,will not be surprisedat this fact. On the other hand the of females among the Irish does not by any means low proportion prove that emigrationis not taking place on a large scale, forwe know the reverseto be the case. It proves,however,that females migrate from Ireland much more frequentlythan they do from Scotland or England. Whilst emigrantsfromEngland or Scotland without " incumbrances,"it appears to be departin most iinstances a commonpractice for entirefamilies to leave Ireland in search of new homes. At all events the elements which make np families will be found to exist amongst Irish emigrants, and this fact, amongst others,explains their slow assimilation with the peoples among whom theysettle.

1885.1

RAVENSTEIN--On

theLaws of Migration.

197

The followi-ng tabular statementexhibits the influencewhich migrationwithinthe limits of the United Kingdom exercises upon the proportionbetweenthe sexes:
Number of Females to everyioo Males among Natives of Englanid mid Wale,,. Scollanid. Irelaid. United Kingdom.

in countywhereborn ..... Rtesiding 1 Residing beyond county where .J................... kingdom the Residing in other parts United Kingdom............of.

104 112 81

io8
xI14

104 116 92

105 11z

butnot beyond limits of~ born,

9'

go

These proportio-ns show very clearly that females are more than males within the kingdomof their birth,but that migratory males more frequently venture beyond. In other words more femialesthan males leave the countyi-nwhich they were born iin order to seek employmentin some other county of the same kingdom, but more males leave the kingdom of their birth for one of the sisterkingdoms. And whilst the migrationof' females from countyto count-y is proceeding more actively than that of the males, the female migrationwithinthe limitsof each countyis going on at a corresponding if not at a higherrate. In nearly all the towns included in our table, the proportionof females among the native co-unty element is higher than it is in the rural parts of the couanties, which proves that a migrationof females has taken place into the towns in excess of that of males. Most of these migrantscame in search of domesticservice,but others,and in several instances no doubt a majority,came also in the hope of findingemployment in shops and factories. The only towns which have proved more attractive to males than to females are West Ham, St. Helen's, West Bromwich, Middlesbrough, Airdrie, Hamilton, Greenock, Hawick, and Londonderry. In all these towns male labour is more sought after than female labour. They are in fact great centresof iron and coal mining,of'machine building,and of other branches of industrychiefly carried on by men. When we turnfromtowns to countieswe findthe same causes in operation. In most of the countiesthe proportion of females in the -native countyelement is smaller than it is among the -natives of each countyenumeratedthroughoutthe kiiugdom. This shows that the migrationof femalesinto othercountieshas been i-nexcess of that of the males. The excess has been grfeatest in such counties as Rutland, Berkshire,Huntingdlonshire, and Shropshire,

198

theLaws of Migration. RAVENSTEIN-On

[June,

Argyll, Linlithgow,and Stirling,Wexford,and Wicklow, in which female labour is not much in demand, or through which strong currents of female migration flow in the direction of the great towns and manufacturing districts. The counties on the other hand which have retained a larger proportionof their county-born females than of males are either those which in their textile and similar industriesaffordemployment to numeronsfemales,or those which,owing to geographical position,are more or less remote fromfemale labour markets,or, what brings about the same result,hold out inducementsto male migrants in search of work in neighbouring iron works or coal
mines.

To the first class of countiesbelo-ng Bedfordshire, Nottinghamsbire, Leicestershire,Lancashire, and Yorkshire in England; Fife and Forfar in Scotland; Antrim, Dublin, and Cork in Ireland. All these are countiesin whichfemale labour is much sought,and where native-bornfemales have consequently little inducementto go elsewherein search of employment. The counties which retain a larger proportionof females than males, because the latter are drawn away by promise of employment in quarries,mines,and iron works,are Cardigan, Pembroke, Carmarthen,and Anglesey in Wales; Kinross, Wigtown, Banff, Clackmannan,Kirkcudbright,Perth, Ross, Selkirk, and Roxburgh in Scotland. The Laws of Migration. It does not admit of doubt that the call for labour in our centres of industryand commerceis the prime cause of those currentsof migrationwhich it is the object of this paper to trace. If, therefore, we speak perhaps somewhat presumptuouslyof " laws of " migration,"we can onlyreferto the mode in which the deficiency of hands in one part of the countryis supplied from other parts where population is redundant. 1. We have already proved that the great body of our migrants only proceed a short distance, and that there takes place conseor displacement quentlya universalshifting ofthe population,which " setting in the direction of the produces " currentsof migration great centresof commerceand industry which absorb the migrants. In forming an estimate of this displacement we must take into account the numberof natives of each county which furnishes the migrants, as also the population of the towns or districts which absorb them. 2. It is the natural outcome of this movement of migration, limited in range, but universal throughoutthe country, that the process of absorptionwould go on in thefollowingmanner:-

1885.]

theLavs of Migration RAVENSTEIN-On

199

a town immediatelysurrounding The inhabitantsof the country of rapid growth,flockinto it; the gaps thus left in the rural population are filled up by migrantsfrom more remote districts,until the attractiveforceof one of our rapidly growing cities makes its corner of the influence felt, step by step, to the most remot-e kingdom. Migrants enumerated in a certain centre of absorption to will consequentlygrow less with the distance proportionately the native population which furnishesthem,and a map exhibiting by tints the recruiting process of any town ought clearly to this fact. That this is actually the case will be found demonstrate to maps 3, 4, 8, and 9. These maps show at the same by referring time that facilities of communicationmay frequentlycountervail the disadvantages of distance. 3. The process of dispersionis the inverseof that of absorption, and exhibitssimilar features. 4. Each main current of migration produces a compensating 5. Migrants proceeding long distances generally go by preferenceto one of the great centresof commerceor industry. than those of the 6. The natives of towns are less migratory rural parts of the country. that males. 7. Females are more migratory These propositionshave either been considered,and supported by facts,in the preceding portion of this paper, or they will be consideredin connectionwith the towns. The Laws of Migrationand the Towns. 1. Having thus shown that the bulk of our migrantsonly move a comparativelyshort distance from the place which gave them birth,and having suggested a law in accordance with which the displacementof our population resulting from migration is going of our we proceed to test the correctness the country, on throughout conclusionswith special referenceto the towns. That our great towns and centresof industryare the goal to which the migrants wend their steps, becomes fromthe rural districtsmost frequently at once evident when we examine into the compositionof our town populations according to birthplaces. The mere fact that most towns increase much more rapidly in population than the rural districtsdoes not sufficeto prove this. It is quite true that the town population of England and Wales between 1871 and 1881 increasedto the extentof I9-6 per cent.,whilst the rural population exhibitedan increase of only 7-4 per cent.,and that in Scotto x8'2 per cent., and land the increase of the towns amo-unted of the kingdomto i-4 per cent. ouly. But that of the remai-nder about this comparatively large increase might have been brouglht
VOL. XLVIII. PART II. P counter-current.

200

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

by a natural increment, that is, by an excess of births over deaths. To show this we need merelyreferto the fact that there are nine counties in Great Britain whose natives between 1871 and 1881 increased more than i8 per cent. These counties,with their increase, were Selkirk (42zi per cent.), Durham (32-2 per cent.), Lanark (z5-3 per cent.), Lancashire (2zv5 per cent.), Monmouth (2o09 per cent.), Glamorgan (70o^ per cent.), Stafford (I9l2 per cent.), Warwick (18.7 per cent.), and Middlesex (i8x3 per cent.).* It is only when we inquire into the compositionof the population of the towns according to birthplaces, that we obtain an idea of its mixed character. The "native county element" will be foundto preponderatein most cases, but there is always presenta strong border element,and a large number of natives from more remoteparts of the country. If the process by which the towns recruit their population is really such as we have suggested, Sub. 2, then the native countyelementshould be strongerin the town than it is in the rural parts of the countyin which the town is situate; and the border elementshould be strongerin the rural parts than in the town. These features,however, we can only expect to findfullydevelopedin cases where the population of the town is not altogetherout of proportionto that of the rural parts of the county,and wherethe town lies in the centreof the county to which it belongs politically,for towns lying near a boundary between two counties naturallyattractmigrantsfromboth. Still, out of sixty-seven towns,witha total populationof 1 ,610,687souls, with reference to which we have information as to the birthplaces of the inhabitants,as many as twenty-six, with 2,795,9I3 inhabitants, follow this rule, viz., the native countyelement is stronger withinthemthan in the raral parts of the county in which they lie, and theborderelement,that is, nativesofbordercountiesenumerated in the towns,is weaker than in the surroundingrural parts. These towns are Blackburn, Bolton, Bury, Preston,Rochdale, and St. Helens in Lancashire; Bradford, Halifax, Huddersfield, and Leeds in Yorkshire; Bristol, Southampton, Walsall, Newcastle witliGateshead,Sunderland; Glasgow, Greenock,Paisley, Kilmar. nock, Dunfermline,Arbroath,Hamilton, Airdrie, and Hawick in Scotland; Belfast and Drogheda in Ireland.t In illustrationof this class of towns we select Paisley. The
* We needhardly thattheinierease observe of thenatives of counties is largely of migranits forthechildren influenced by migration, counttowards thenatives of in which thosecounties theyare born. townsof the same type,according to the censusfor1871, are t Additional Macclesfield, Exeter, Durham,Canterbury, Maidstone, Coventry, Dudley,WorYork. cester,

1885.]

RAYENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

201

towards has contributed of Scotland whicheachcounty contingent differs townof Renfrewshire of thatmanufacturing thepopulation of each to the population according of courseveryconsiderably whichthenativesof theproportion county;butwhenwe compute of in Paisley bear to the total number each countyenumerated from and to thernigrants Scotland, throughout enumerated natives of Scotlandgroup thatthecounties we soon perceive each county, conin a certainorder. The bulkof the inhabitants themselves of of Paisleyitselfand of theremainder of natives sists naturally a " borderzone" have but the countiesfarming Renfrewshire, of'theirnatives, a conto the number proportionately furnished, upon distanceand whichdependsprimarily siderable contingent, by the extentto which of access, but is also influenced facility each county. is goingon from migration
N~atives of of Percentage Percentage N$atives Number. of Population in of Enumerated Paisley. Scotland. Percentage of from Migrants eachCounty.

34,362 Paisley.................. ................ 3,989 Rest of Renfrew Renfrew ................ 38,351 Ayr . ....... Lanark ............ ........ ........... Stirling Dumbarton ................... ...... Argyll ............. .......... Bute ......... Borderzone............ Wigtown ................... .................. Kirkcudbright Dumfries................... ....... Peebles ........... 2,834 4,024 440 466 772

6j 76 7 t6
68&9 7-23 0.79 o084
0-23

16-51 3-01 2-06 1-22 0-60 4 37 3.83


I

5I'

0-40

129

ID'39

0,83 0,84 0,84 0 74 0 16 01]4 0 10 017 0 26 0-25 0 20 0-13 0-16 016


0'04 0,26

oz

z2z8 2I 5
31I 6 091

Z-19

8,665 110 67 123 15 456 122 63 18 240 224 1,444 94 119 850 4,994 251

15'58
0o20 o Iz o02Z

i o-6

Edinburgh ................... Linlithgow .................. Clackmannan ................... Kinross........... ........ Fife ........ .......... ....... Perth ............ Outerzone ............ Lowlands ........... , ........ Birthplacenot known England and Wales Ireland .......... ........ Otherparts .................. Total ...............

Selkirk ..........

........

o&z2 o0zz o iI

ooZ o0oI

o zo

0,54

0o03 o04o 2-6o


0.43

O59 033

o 8z o058 0o48

o014

0.39

o056

Restof Highlands ............

870

1.57 o i6
o -l

0 09

0?07

0o38 0I 7

0.45

V53 89 8

0,93 0-72 0-92 1 5a


p

55,638

lOO0oo

2w

202

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migrationt.

[June,

Glasgow presentssimilar features.* The city, withinits municipal limits,has a population of 5 I,4' 5 souls,and the nativecounty element amounts to 62-13 per cent., and is consequentlysomewhat higher than in the rural parts of Lanark and Renfrew. The population is largely recruitedfrom the Highlands and from Ireland. The rural parts of Lanark and Renfrewhave furnishedcomparaand although taking the lead, as far as tively small co-ntingents, numbers go, they are exceeded by Dumbarton,Argyll,and Bute, when these numbers are compared with the total number of of geographical nativeswho furnishedthe migrants. The influence position upon migration is very clearly illustrated in Glasgow. The large number of migrantsfromArgyll and Bute shows that a less formidableobstacle than are difficult the sea is frequently roads throughmountain passes. Very conclusive,too, as to the law which governs migration is of the migrantsalong the currents of migration the distribution
i

areas follows:Glasgow for Thedetails


of Natives Number. Percentage of Population Gilasgow.
5vl26

of Percentage Natived Scotland. 70 72 10476

Percentage of Migrants.

Glasgow .262,146 Lanark and Renfrew (rest) 51,607

lo9og

33 8 X

Ayr.21,631 Bute .1,681 Argyll.


Dumbarton .7,184

4 23
0.33

9 29 10 91 11 53
1242

33'38 28 o6
31l51
33'72

10,651

zXo8
I

4?

.10,742 Stirling Edinburghand Linlithgow 13,090

AzI0 z

9 66

z4'98
I7'00

56

4 06
2-90 250 1174 30 68 17 21
_

RestofLowlands .9,642
Scotland. Northern 34,371

I'88

8 88 io088

6'72
3*14
13'Iz
0

andWales. England
Ireland. Otherparts

16,026
67,109
9.

4,682 511,415t

IooOC

t Inclusive of 853 natives of Scotland whose place of birth is unknown.

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

203

which set towards Glasgow. We find thus that natives of Perth form4'55 per cent. of the population of Stirling, i 54 per cent. of that of Dumbarton, I143 per cent. of that of Glasgow, and only o077 per cent. of that of the more distant rural parts of Lanark and Renfrew. The natives of Argyll number 3-I0 per ceiit. in Dumbarton, 2vo8 per cent. in Glasgow, and i-88 per cent. in Lanark and Renfrewoutside Glasgow. The proportionof natives of Fife in the countieslying between Fife and Glasgow (in per cent.) is as follows:
4-O. Linlithgow, 19-7. Clackmannan, 2-T. Perth, 6-i. Edinburgh, 3y3. Kinross, o 98. (outside Glasgow), Lanark Stirling, I 7.
FIFE.

GLAsGow, o097.

o zz. Renfrew,

2. Border Towns.-The currents of migration towards towns subject to the same law, increasing in population floweverywhere of the native as exhibited in a preponderance although their effect, elements in the towns,and in that of the border elements in the surrounding rural parts, are not infrequentlyobscured by the operation of other circumstances. One of these is geographical position. A town lying near the boundary of a countyvirtually becomes a centre of attraction to migrants from two counties. This would necessarilyresult in a depressionof the native county by a correselement in the population of the town,accormpanied ponding increase in the border element. In nineteen border towns, having a total population of 2,0I5,I46 souls, the effectof geographical position upon the compositionof the population is sufficient to warrant their being placed into a separate group. In twelve of these towns the native countyelement is below what it is in the rural parts of the county, whilst the border element is higher; in four (Burnley, Oldham, Hull, and Sheffield)both the native countyelementand the borderelementare in excess, whilst in three (Derby, West Bromwich, and Swansea) both the native county element and the border element are depressed below the level of the rural parts of the counties in which the towns lie. In view of dealing with towns of this class we obtain a more truthful the constituentelementsof the populationif we deal with them as if they were situated in two counties, and make both contribute towards the native county element. As an illustration of this class of towns we have selected Birminghamwith Aston Manor, the reouisite details for which are given in the followingtable:-*
the poinit * The table contains forsettling thanis requisite moreinformation and espeof it, withthe helpof the miaps, underconsideration.An examination ofmigrathe set ofsomeofthe maincurrents ciallyofMap 6, will makeapparent attractions. ofcounter tion,as well as the influence

204

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.


of Percentage Percentage Natives of Number. in Population Enumerated Enuland of Birmingham. andWales.

[June,
Percentage from Migrants each County.
-

Of

Natives

of

Warwickshie

.................... 309,726

68 13 5.3o 6-8 I o 86 070 o8O V'44


17'31 o z7 0?50

44

Worcester . ...23,669 Staffor . .30,964 .2,246 Derby . Leicester . .3,929 Northampton.....3,160 Oxford. ...... . Gloucester. Borderzone. Lancashire.4,826 Cheshire.1,257 .6,269 Shropshire Hereford .4,222 Monmouth ... ... Somerset .. .... Westernbelt Yorkshire ... .. .1,829 Nottingham Rutland .167 Lincoln .1,062 .219 Huntingdon .555 Redford . Buckingham Berkshire. Easternbelt. Remainderof England and Wales . Scotland ...... .. Ireland . .7,440 Otherparts . ............... Total ......454,616

3,636 11,106 78,710

6o 3-2 049 1-2 11 16 P83 2 09 0-17 .2L 1 99 2-87 0 41 0)41


042
x

ii3`9 1I74

18'I

4-5 3-5

4f00

6'oo

8 4Z
0 71

I o6

800 2,277 19,651 3,637

0-93 oxI8

138

o so
-32

.530 z 7-1 1-45


Iz2i
2-03

oo80 o0o 0o03


023

[ 1,092 722 9,283 24,484 1,882

0oo5 o il o z4 oxi6
2.04

0 14 0 48 0.59 198 0-28 0 32 0-50 031 4021 0*19 0-74 114


1731-

it88
I8

rI't

o-6z
0-93
1.23 0-77 107 072

53
0'41

3,440 c076

64

IoC000

171

If we looked upon Birminghamas a town commonto Warwick and Worcestershire, its native element would at once be raised to 68-13 + 5 30 = 73y45 per cent., whilst its border element would be depressed to a corresponding degree. Even though we reckoned Shropshire towards the border element,to make up for the transfer of Worcestershire, the town would still stand the test, viz., its native countyelement would be strongerthan in the rural parts of Warwickshire,whilst its border elementwould be weaker. A similar emendation in the case of the other towns of this categorywould furnishanalogous results,as will at once be seen by

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

205

comparingthe followingtable with the general table at the end of this paper.
Towns. Element drawn from Native County
Remainintg Elemenit.

Border

85-9 Burnley.......... Lanc. (7 74) and York (8*5). ........................... 2.3 . 92-2 .49 . ,, ) Oldham .......... (85i . . 81-6 York (73'3) and Linc. (8-3) Hull . 3*3 .79-5 , Sheffield .... (74 8) and Derby(4-7) 5-4 . 740 8-z Derby ... . Derby (65 5), and Leic. (88) . . 7.0 . 829 West BromwichStaff.(76 8) and Worc. (6 ) .696 22 Swansea.........GJ lam. (64 2) and Carn. (54) . 64-8 5.6 Birkenhead C........ Ceshire (49 5) and Lanc. (153) .. 82-8 ,, ,, (Z T 2) .. (6i-6 4 Stockport ........ 84-6 i-9 . ........ Devon (74.5) and Corn.(IO-i) . Plymouth 76-6 .... Durh. (63y9)and Northbld.([2 7) .. South Shields 3*4 91I . . 64 5 West Ham........ Essex (38X4)and Midd. (26I) 78-5 8-8 Staff.(7;z9) and Salop (5 6) . ................. Wolverhampton . 53-2 23.2 ....... Surrey(457) and Kent (7 5) . Croydon Worc. (5 3) ................ _.. 73-4 I1-5 Birmingham.... Warwick(68 I) ancd . 77 2 5.Z Dumfries .... Dumf. (53 9) and Kirkcudb.(23 3). . 74-1 8-i Forfar(66-o) and Perth (8-i) . Dundee ... 8-o Inverness .... Inv. (6z-i), Ross (15-4), and Nairn (i-3 ..._.._ 79 0 ic8 .703 Stir. (59 9) and Perth (Io-4) . Stirling....

Percnt. Percuit.

towns,all of which recruit 3. We have thusdisposed offorty-five their population in the main from the countyin which they are situated,or in the ease of border towns, from two contiguous counties. But there are towns which,either on account of their of migrants, size or rapid growth,absorb so considerablea naumber that the resources in men of the countryimmediatelysurrounding them are not able to supply their wants. In towns like these the native county element, owing to the inflow of strangers,sinks below what it is in the surrounding country. It is obvious, for instance,that large towns like Manechester, Salford, and Liverpool, having jointly a population of 1,070,157 souls, wbile rural Lancashire only numbers 1,315,299 are not likely to find a productive even if there recruitingground in theirimmediate neighbourhood, existed no other larger towns in Lancashire to which migrantsare attracted. The large towns which we shall considerare:ofTowns. Population of Popuilation ofCountry. Rural Part

London ............... Liverpool ................ Manchester-Salford Edinburgh-Leith ........ Dublin...

3,816,483 552, o8 517,649 z87,842


345,245

2,095,04,1* 1l315)299t 100,994 73,665

* Of an enlarged all Middlesex,Surrey, Kent, and Essex. including county outsidethe ten largetownsincludedin our table. t In Lancaf,hire,

206

RAVINSTEIN.-On the Laws of Migration.

[June,

London-It will be our task to show that the recruitingprocess goes on in these towns in accordance with the law suggested,notwithstanding the exceptionalpositionwhich theyoccupyon account of their large population.
Natives Distributioni ofthe Percentage of Londo thrloughout ofCounties Percentage Natives Percentage of d and Natives of rated first Column Population Percentage Percentage each of of Enumnerated of Migrants Nunmber in in London. Counity. from each Enumerated. Migrants Population LFondon. of ~~~~~~~~~~~from London. London. Counties. County.
named in of the of EnumeEnglai_ _Wa_es _

~~~~
-

. London (metropolis) Middlesex (extrametrop.) ,, ) Surrey ( ( ,, ) Kent Essex .. . .... Hertford ..................
Metropolitan group ....

2,401,955

62 94

8o'4

240I,955

6294
20oT9

97,73 6 63,284
92,553
394,871 95,505

35,793

2-56 35'5 1-66 |8 9 2-50 I3'6 I 6-8 2-42 0?94 15.8


10'34 140 1-31 0-66 019 0 46
0-71

60-8 50Q6 497 52-1 410


50-8 30 5 36'1 29-8 20'9 19 2

94,848 66,476 54,638 83,326 14,845


314,133

16,22 11-37 9-34 14-25 2-54


53-73

I414 7'70 I4.46

7'3I

x8,9 g9o
'2o

13IIO

Norfolk ............... . ....... 8Qfflk . . . .......... Cambridge Huntingdon ............... Northampton ....................

Bedford . ..............

Buckingham ................ Oxford .... Berkshire .......... Wilts ............... . Hampshire . ........... Sussex . . Inner belt .380,427 Somerset . Dorset . Devon ............. Cornwall6 .... South-western

53,3 6 25 IZ,085.. 7,392 17569

15,677

0-41
0-59

io 9 9 3 5.9 1 iz

7,359 7,68 I
3,792

9'o

26 4
30 7

27,282.

22,373 . . .
32,324 31I316

0-85
0 82 1-41 1'16 9-97
1-14

io0o

53,694+
44,401

13*7 9 5 9 5

24 9 34-4
25 2 34-5
36-3

1,054 5,1 71 3,703 6,322 4,414 4,66 1 25,488


34,022 I 13,572 10,005

1-26 1-30 0-65 0-19 0-88 1-08 0-75 0 80 4-36 5-82 19-43
1-71

z2l

i.66 z

204

I.77 I9o0
2-47 2.46

0 63

3-6O
I8o

4 53
4-30
6.93

9*6 99
7-9

30-2
24-7

3 45
15;7 i-8s

. .... 43,5 22 ................8,214 .5. . 8,956 ............6,534 group..


137,226
-.

0-48 1-55 0 43

8-6 4 3 7 4
3

7.8

7,368
3,47I 11,914 2,21 9

21-9 30'6 17'9 2417 11 6 8-1 10 8 9-7 14-8 7.3 18.5 11-3 8-2 110

1-26 059 2-04 0 38

1-97 o067 1-57

3 59
0A46 0-21 004 0Q22 0Q66 0 25 0-89 0-17 0-12 303

24,972
5,710

4 27 098

Lincoln . ... Nottingham ..... .....1.7,730..............7,874 Rutland ....4................1,514 Leicester . ...... . 8,367 Warwick ................. 25,302 Worcester 9,535........... 9,535 Gloucester ....... 34,I35 lHereford 6,674... . 6,6 74 Monmouth ................. 4,498 Outer belt ................

2 I

5-3 2.5 3.I 2.4 5.6 4 5 2.3

4,334 433 4,114 13,637 10,417 1,597 1,439 45 74


4,293

0-74 0 07 0 70 2-33 0-73 1 78 0'27 0 24 786

I%.2 Il

I-Z8

2'02

I*86 1I13 i-82 31 o 68

I.42

1885.]

RAR.NSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

207

of the Distribution Percentage Natives Natives of ofCounties Percentage Percentage of LondonWahloughout Natives of rated first Column Population Percentage Percentage of each of Enumerated of Migrants Number in each Enumerated. London. County. from Migranmtsop London. Counties. London. County.
named in of the of lnume-

Derby.6 o8............. Stafford. Shropshire .................. . Cheshire

6,o8 i 12,771

0-16

6,865 6,077

0 33 0 18 0-16
0-83

I13 2-z
I'0
I.3 i*0

I-3

2-6 5.7 57
3.5 4-6 10'3

6,886 1,796 5,163


17,623

3,778

0 31
0 88

0-65 1-18

o88z 0 70
O072

o-8o

Midland group ............ Westmoreland .............. Cumberland.

31,794 1,103
3,36I

3 02
0 07 0.19

O 77
0-79 o-63 0.45

Lancashire .28,042

073 0 03
0-09
I

i4

36 5*3 89
9*9

27,)173 409 1,I O

4-65

North-western group..
Yorkshire . Durham .8,070

32,5o6
32,223

0 85
0-84

IO
I12

1z8,686
22,295

4 89
3 81 1l01

o 76
o-68
O077

. Northumberland
North-eastern group..

7,778
48,071

I *2 0-21 0O20 1*8

7-6 65
8-7

5,883

618 3,

062

O83

1 25 0 05 1It
0*11

L-3
I*

31,796

5-44

O 76 0 70 0 31
I*IO

Glamorgan .4,296

Pem-ibroke .2,832 .... Catrdigan .1,200 Brecknock Montgomery .1,65i Flint . Denbigh .1,1.

Carmarthen .i,6oz

2,3352

Radnor.658

003 0-02
004

0 07 0 06

2.7 1-8
I19

Z.5

3-7

9*7

46
I

Merioneth .558 Carnarvon .784 .438 Anglesey


County not stated

5,3i8

0-14

002 0 03 001 002 001 Ol 0 62

0l

2 O o8 O09

4-2

47

99

82

3,594 388
1,011

0-7
o7

0-4

29 I 55 4-1 26 07 10.3* 31.9*


17.9*

2-4

60

499 447
z66 I83

346 351 i6z 284 413

0 17
006 0 03 0 05 0 07 0 08 0 05

0-61 0 07 0 06

0.49 o 6i o069
c043

003 008

0-51 0-45 0-35 03 8 o0.

Wales .23547
Scotland .49,554 lreland .80,778 Abroad .

6-8
1-3 14

7,944

1 36

0O58

I I ,626

2 12 2 92 100 00

1*30

Total ..........

3,8I6,483t

2,986,655 10000

I46

the United Kingdom. b.rth,and of nativesof foreign partsenumerated throutghout of birthwas not stated. t Inclusiveof 18,499nativesof England whosecounty

* Percentage of natives of Scotland and Ireland enumerated outside the kingdom of their

The leading facts connectedwith this subject are presentedin the table on p. 206, which classifies the population of London according to birthplaces,and exhibits the proportionwhich the

208

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

nativesof each countyenumeratedin London bear to the numberof natives enumerated throughout England and Wales, and to the migrantsfromeach county. This last featureis shown graphically on Map 8. If we look upon London as the capital of an enlarged metropolitan county, including Middlesex, Surrey, Kent, Essex, and Herts, and then compute the native countyelement,as we have done in the table in the appendix, this element will be found to amount to 73X3 per cent. of the total population of London, and to 74 2 per cent. of the population of the rural parts of the enlarged metropolitancounty. The " border element," on the otlherhand, only reaches 9-97 per cent. in London, whilst it amounts to io56 per cent. in the rural parts. The excess is slight,but it is neverthelesssignificant.* Looking to the proportion of migrants who have gone from each countyto London, we find that it bears a most pronounced relation to distance, modified by facilityof access and the vicinity to other centres of absorption. Out of what we have described above as the rural parts of an enlarged metropolitan county 5o8 out of every hundred migrants went to London. A second group of counties, stretching from Norfolk and Suffolkto Hampshire and Surrey, and included in the accompanying table under the designation of "inner belt," sent 380,427 or 302 per cent. of its mnigrants to London.t A south-westerngroup of counties,including Somerset, Dorset, Devon, and Cornwall, is represented in London by 24-7 per cent. of its migrants,whilst a centre belt of counties,extendingfromthe Severn to the Humber, is represented by I PO per cent. The migration from these counties already exhibits the counter attraction of other centres of absorption in the centre -and north of England, and this influenceis still more marked in the case of a group embracing Derbyshire,Staffordshire, Shropshire,and Chieshire, of whose migrants only 4o09 per cent. have reachledLondon. Of the migrantsfromWales 6-8 per cent. had found their way to the metropolis, whilst the north of England despatched 8-7 per cent. On comparing the contingents of migrants furiaishedby each countywe find that although they correspond upon the whole prettyfairlywith distance and facility of access, and do so most decisivelyas regards the counties nearest
* Population of London 3,8X6,483,of rural parts of enlargedmetropolitan county,2,298,10; native countyelement,2,796,826 and 1,706,44I; border element, 380,327 and 242,682. this"inner belt" enumerated in the rural partsof t The nativeswbo form the enlargedmetropolitan county to 242,682, or 19'2 percent.of onlyainounted all migrants, but theyconstituted whilstthe .io56 per cent. of the population, 30o2 per cent. who had gone to London only constituted 9-97 per cent. of the population.

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-Of

theLaws of Aligration.

209

to London, that three of the most distant occupy an exceptional position. These counties are Devonshire, Lancashire, aind Yorkshire. That Devonshire should send a larger contingent of her migrants than other counties at an equal distance fromLondon, but situated in the centreor northof England, is only what might have been expected,for in consequence of the geographical position of their county,the eyes of the native of Devonshire desirous of migrating turn naturally to the eastward, anid London is the The case of great focus of light which attractshim (see p. 190). Lancashire and Yorkshire differsfrom that of Devonshire, for are " counties whilst the last is a " countyof dispersion,"the former " of absorption,"and emigrationfromthem is almostinsignificant. Where such is the case the migrants belong in a large measure to a select or special class, and they go by preferenceto a centre of culture,commerce,and industrylike London. There still remains to be considered the displacement of the population of the counties surroundingLondon resultingfromthe currentsof migratkn setting in the direction of the metropolis. If our suggestion as to the law of migrationreally embodies the facts of the case, then the numberof natives of one of the counties of the " metropolitangroup " and " inner belt " not in immediate contact with the metropolismet with in London should be less, counties. to the population,than in the intervening proportionately This is actually the case of the natives from all the thirteen counties, and the decrease on approaching London is progressive and Cambridge. in all but three,namely,Norfolk,Northampton, The results summarisedare presentedin the followingtable
Natives of In London. Percentage nf Populatioi In Intervenino fdOieg Iounte. ,Oounties. Of Interveiiing Of London. Counties.

. Suffolk .25,085 Cambridge Huntinodon .7,392 Northampton .15,677 Bedford Hertford .35,893 Bucks .27,282 Oxfordsliire .22,372 .32,344 Perthshire Wilts .31,316 . Hampshire Sussex .44,401 Total.416,320

Norfolk .49,999

53,316 17,569
a

40,338 7o,o68 5,38i 3,820 8,784 8,555 1,714 9,597 I6,8z5

8,2z4

0-6 0.19 0 46 0 41 0e94 0.59 085 0 82 1P41 1-16


10-91

131

1-40

0 71

I
I

0.45 o 88 I.27 z249


175

349 o 8l

z 31

53,694

30,4zz I6,179

38,634 8,541 2z1

i-80 3 68 3 *374 34

155

48

As this migrationtowards and into London affordsa good test,

210

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

[June,

we feel justifiedin going somewhatfurther into detail,and in order to save space we do so in a tabular form:
of Natives Norfolk .......... ~~orfolk .

In 4-04; Essex,J. 54 5; Cambridge, 1X40 In Suffolk, C~130; Herts,0.70; Middlesex, o-q.;....J 131 ...... ,, Essex 3 49. Suffolk o 64 . 066 Cambridge ....,, Herts, ii6; Middlesex, Huntingdon ......,, Beds, 151 ; Herts, o0zo 0-19 0o2g; Middlesex, Bucks,iC98; Beds,iv56; Herts,0o53; ~0A46 Norhapto ..4 ........................0.. .........4,. Middlesex,o L 041 ..,, Bedford Herts,z-62; Middlesex, o69. ,, Middlesex2-49. 094 Herts .... ,, Bucks.... 0171 75 ....... I ,, 059 Oxford ...,, Bucks,3-22; Middlesex,o83. 085 . ,, i-26 Berks . ,, 2-2i; Surrey, X 6o; Middlesex, Wilts r , Berks,3'55; Hants, 2z46; Surrey, xo1; 0-82 .8 lMiddlesex, o078.. 41 . ,, Surrey36-8 ....... Hampshire ...... 2,i 410; Kent, 1-16 Sussex.... .
*

in per toPopulation of Proportidn Cent, Counties.* Intervening

Ditto London.

referred to.

andKentarehere ofMiddlesex, theextra-metropolitan Only parts Surrey,

the effect which distance These proportions show verydistinctly has upon migration, and how the " absorption" of migrants depends upon the population of the counties where they settle. The natives of Norfolk,Cambridge, and Northampton,in proportion to the population,are slightlyless numerous in extra-metropolitan Middlesex than theyare in London; and those of Norfolk are moreover less strongly represented in Herts than they are in Middlasex. But as the greater part of extra-metropolitan Middlesex, and more especially that portion of it which is most likely to attract migrants, actually lies beyond London to a migrant coming from the counties named, whilst Herts is outside the route which the main stream of migrants from Norfolk may be presumed to follow, we are entitled to state that the to the migrants from all these counties decrease, proportionately population,the nearerwe approach London, and are least numerous in London itself. It is only when we trace the currentsof migration from the more distant countiesthat this rule appears to be broken through, and the fact of the metropolisexercising a preponderatingattraction out of proportionto its population becomes apparent. On leaving Yorkshire, for instance, we find that the natives of that county decrease proportionatelyto the general population until we reach Herts or Middlesex; but that in Middlesex,and especially in London, they are proportionately more numerousthan in Herts Cambridge, or Hunts. The decrease could be made continuous

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Migration.

211

only if we removed 85I natives of Yorkshire fromMiddlesex, and 13,427 from London, which would reduce their proportionto the general populationof these counties to respectivelyo so and 0o49 per cent. The details of the distributionof the natives of Yorkshire on the road to London are as follows:-*
YOBRESHIRW.

Derby, 16,467 (3y56). Notts, 10,163 (z 59). Lincoln,16,683 (3 55). Rutland,202 (0o94). Leicester,3,017 (0o94). Hunts, 389 (o-65). 2,031 (0o75). Northampton, 991 (0o53). Cambridge, Beds, 699 (o047). Bucks,726 (o-41). Herts,1,032 (05 I). Middlesex,3,193 (o-68). Extra-metropolitan LONDON, 32,223 (o084).

If we trace the natives of Cornwall along the routes leading to London, the result will be foundto be analogous, inasmuch as they are more numerous in London than in any interveningcounty, Devonshire excepted. The natives of that county bound for London evidentlyfollow two routes, the one overland, the other by sea. The overland stream appears to die almost away on reaching Wilts, whilst a considerable migration by sea accounts for the strength of the Cornish element in Hampshire. The followingtabular statementillustratesthis:
CORNWALL.

Devon, 27,220 (4-5O). Somerset, 1,676 (o035). Dorset,561 (o 29). Wilts, 325 (o 12z). Hants, 2,876 (0o40). Surrey, 1,256 (0o29). Extra-metropolitan Berks,321 (OI5). Middlesex,1,284 (o 27). Extra-metropolitan LONDON, 16,534 (o4o).

Liverpool and Manchester.-These two towns having jointly a


population of 1,070,157

ten othertowns included in our table, only numbers 1,315,299, can hardly be expected to find a productiverecruitingground in their immediateneighbourhood; and this all the less so, as there exist numerous other large and growing towns in that part of England. Hence the native county element is exceptionallyweak, and the population is largely made up of elements drawn from a considerable distance. The Irish element is conspicuous in both, more especially in Liverpool, which is within easier reach of Irishmen than of the majorityof natives of England; indeed we should be justified in treating Ireland as a border county of Lancashire.
in bracketsgive the proportion of natives * The figures of Yorkshire to the in per cent. of each county general population

souls, whilst rural Lancashire, outside the

212

RAVENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Migration.

[June,

The Scotch too are numerousin Liverpool,and next to them rank the natives of North Wales. Proportionally to its population, North Wales furnished a larger contingentto the population of Liverpool than any otherpart of the United Kingdom, and out of every 0oo natives of Nortb Wales eniimerated in other parts of at Liverpool when the Eng-land and Wales, as many as 17 residW(l last census was taken. The leading facts connectedwith the birthplacesof the inhabitants of Liverpool and Manchester-Salfordare given in the following table:
of Natives Number from Natives of eachl Couiity,&e. Percentage

of~~~~~

of thePopulatioin

of Percentage Percentage ofthe Migrants the fromi of eachi Natives, &c. eaclh Colunity, Counity, &c.

Man- L Live l Lverpo Liverpool. chester.

Man- Liver- Man- Liver- Manhester. pool. chester. pool. chester. 68 2z 12-22 i 2.44
-

Lancashire.... 345,992 353, 26 Cheslhire .......16,242 22,714 6,i88 NorthWales. 18,297 4,4-7 Salop .4631.....4,631 . 4,042 Staffordshire 7,474 .... 1,492 6,235 Derbyshire Yorkslhire
WesttmoreNotts .
....

8,709
1,540

1,157

62 62 2 94 3-31 0-84 0073 0 27


0-21

4.36

o 86 l
1'20

1a20

2,529

5,504 1,046 2,239

1-58 1^08 1-16 5 59

0o48 iXo6
0o20

2-67 3 46 1-48 0-41 0-33 0-33


1-98 0-30

9-21 i 2.-88 5 9Z I*17 17 49 392 I4I 3-75 181 o76 3X35 1V36 1-15 4-82 z-6o 1-19 o-66 2-67 I-69 o2zo 3-73
1 34 o022 5-03 3-42
3.52

lanid..... (Cumberland.. 5,960 London ...... 6,398 Rest of England and 30,897 Scotland ....... 20,434 Ireland ....... 70,977
15,768 552,508

0-28

6,450 43,i86 8,953 38,550


9,0Z8 517,649

0.43
1z5

2-34 0-21 0-24

o 88

9-38 1-10 0-78

Iao

Wales ...J

8.36

0-34
0.25

Io8

Other parts....

3-70 12-84
2-85 10000

1-73 0-55 7'45 1-21


1-75

o 66
-

7-41* 3-25* 9.09* 4-93* 4.49* -

ooo

* Percentageof natives of Scotland and Ireland enumerated outside the throughout and of nativesof foreignpartsenumerated of theirbirth, kinigdom the UnitedKingdom.

town and coLntryincrease rapidlyin population,and as both owe this increase in a large measure to migration,the native county weak withinthem. This is moreespecially elementis exceptionally the case in the city,whose colleges and law courts attractmigrants fromthe mole distant parts of Scotland. How much more attractive the city is in the eyes of migrants than rural Edinburghshire may be seen from the following consideration: In 1881 112,192

tants in 1881, whilst rural Edinburghshire had only io0,994.

Edinburgh-Leith.-The Scotch metropolis had 287,842 inhabiBoth

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-0O1 the Lawvs oJ JMigrabion.

213

rural Edinburghnativesof otherparts of Scotland (iiio-luding and 47,986natives in Edinburglh-Leith, shire) were enumerated leavinga balance of in the rest of S' otiand, of Edinburgh-Leith 65,206,equal to 22z6 per cent.of its popllationin favourof the in obtaiined of raial Ediibirghshire, city. The balance in favour or to 79 per cent. to 8,053 miig,rants, the sameway,onlyamnounts detailsare as follows: of thepopulationi.Trhe
Edinbur:,iA-Leith.
Ruiral To or frorn Ediiiburglishire. To or froni ItordeiCouiities. To or frormi rest of Scotland.

. Immigrants ....... ....... ........... Emigrants Balance .........

11,375

14,423 3,048

44,o6 7 z Z., 022

53,702 39.589 39,113

-2,045

lRural Edinburghshire.
| ho the or trotn

City.

Border Counties. 22,024


14,549

To or from

restof Scotland.

To or from

. Immigrants ......-... Emigrants


Balance ....
-

11,423 3,048

14,423

8,264 4,638
3,626

7,475

of the population of on the composition Furtherparticulars are given in the and of raral Edinburghshire Edinburgh-Leith table: following
Inhabitants. Natives of City. Rural. Ntitves of in thePoplaton.Enunmerated Scotland. Rural. City. Rural. Percentage of Percerntage

the Population. City.

in Enumierated
Scotland. City. Rural. 23 70

of I'ercenitage Migrants

Edinburgh-Leith 146,417 11,375 50 87 i i *z6 75 32 5 85 Rural Edin. 5 01 480o8 17'55 59.o8 42 93 .. } 14,423 48,561 burghshire border Eight 1531 2 I*8 i 4'11 2-o6 18 54 .counties*..J... 44,067 22,024 9 31 Rest of Scotland.. 53,702 8,264 18'66 8-i8 2 62 0.40 England & Wales 14,193 3,968 4 93 3 93 15-46 4.32 Ireland ......... 8,875 5,892 3 08 5.83 4 06 2-24 ......... Otherparts 6,165 g9I 2 14 o0go 22 34 3*30 | 287,842 100,994
100 00 I00 00
_ .

9-26 I.43

IncludingFife.

214

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

[June,

Dublin.-The populationof Dublin, or rather of the two Dublin unions, comprehends82 per cent. of the total population of the county. Dublin consequentlyrecruits its populationvery largely of in the border counties,and in a lesser degree in the remainider Ireland. Map 8, which illustrates migration into the county of Dublin, very fairly illustrates the leading features of migration into Dublin town likewise, whilst the following table contains the particulars of the composition of the population of Dublin town:
of Natives Number. of Percentage Percentage Natives thePopulation of Dublin. Ireland. 73-53 9-22 22-22 17-95
4I.64

of Percentage in Enumerated Ireland.

Dublin county. Meath .9,120 Kildare .16,736 Wicklow .15,833

209,940

6o08i

2z65
4f84 4'59

9 V45
54'9 I5.82

Rest of Ireland England and Wales


Scotland .4,220

68,359 16,948

I9a8o 4.9I
I2 2

1,51 24A42
18-92

Otherparts.4,059
345,215

_
Iooo00o

20 _ 50

4. The towns which fall next under our considerationincrease far more rapidly in population than the country districts which surround them,or they increase at all events at a tolerable rate. whilst the rural population surrounding them either gains but littlein numbersor is actually retrogressive. The ten towns of this type are divisible into two groups:1. Towns in " countiesof absorption" the rural population of which increases at a rate equal or superiorto that of the general populationof the country. 2. Towns in " countiesof dispersion" the rural population of which increases very slowly or decreases. To these we feel inclined to add fourIrish towns, of which one (Cork) gains slowly in population,whilst the threeothers decrease a,t a rate much below that at which the rural population of the countiesin which theyare situated decreases. These towns are:-*
* According additionaltownsrepresent to the censusof 1871 the following Yarmouth, Reading,Lincoln,Redford, Oxford, thesametype: Barrow-in-Furness, BurySt. Edmunds. Cambridge,

1885).]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.


Inerease (or Decrease) of Populatioin, 1i71-81. Town. 910Blural of Colinty. parts Per ent.

215

First Grou-p Middlesbrough ..........

14............... Nottingham Cardiff................... 4 8 Leicester ..................


Nor-thamptoni

(lit. Pt-r 40

17

26 14
8

]4

Second Group-

Aberdeen 1.93.............. Perth ............... Ayr..


Norwich ....................

. .................7 Ipswich

Sta.
- 21 -

X7

I,;

17 9

6 04

Irivsh Group9 Cork I 51................


0o Loindonderry Limerick ..0-..............

0
-

Waterford

_ ,r-. 7,) 9 -(;


-

36 3.6

9-6

it In all these towns tile native county elementis below wlhat is in the rural parts of the counties in which they are situated,for when the increase of the population of town and country is so the resources of the latter in men are frequently disproportionate, to meet the demand, and the bands required in the insufficient workshops and factories have to be drawn from a wider area. This must naturally lead to a depression of the native county element. Various circumstances contributeto promotethis immigration from the more distant parts of the country,such as ihe vicinityof competing towns, or the demand for a particular class of labour which the surrounding countryis not able to furnislh. Emigration to foreign parts is also of some influence, more especially in Ireland. affordsa suitable illustration of this type of Mliddlesbrough towns. Its rapid growth,the heterogeneoluscomposition of its population,and the preponderanceof the male sex, recall features generallycredited only to the towns of the American west. The population of Middleshroughincreased io8 per cent. between 1861 and 1871, and 4o per ceint.between 1871 and 1881. The composition of its population at the time of the last three censuses this rapid growth. In 1861* it still had a reflects veryfaithfully native countyelementof 73-2 per cent., but soon after this miners
*

inhabitants) as representing the Middlesbrouglh(i8,992 inliabitantb) of 1861, no year being available. other details of the birthpla(es forthlatt VOL. XLVIII. PART II. Q

(22, districtof Guisboronlgh We take the superintendent-registrar's

T2

216

RAVENSTEIN-

On theLaws of Miqration.

[June,

and ironiworkers flockedinto the town in increasing numbers from and Scotland, as also Irish Durham, South Wales, Staffordshire, labourers,so that in 1871 the native countyelementwas found to about one half tbe inbabihave sunk to 50 per cent., that is onily tants were natives of Yorkshire. During the next decade this imnmigration contillued,but at a much diminished rate, and as the of the older immigrants were counted towards the native childrCTI countyelement,this elementonce more rose to 55 per cent. There is no countyof England and Wales which has not contributed its contingenttowards the population of Middlesbiough, although the contingentsof the nearest border counties, and of Yorkshireitself,lhavebeen heaviest. To nimble-fingered migrants from the textile manufacturing districtsa town of ironworksand miners held out but few inducements,whilst sturdy, miners and ironworkers from Staffordshire, Scotland, and South Wales found the distanicethey had to travel. their way to it, notwithstanding This accession of migrants of a special class is a very marked feature in towns of this type, and in order to exhibit it we have included in our table all counties O-IO per cent. of whose migrants were enumerated in AMiddlesbrough.Nevertheless it must not be that these " special " migrantsfoim but a fractionof the forgotten population,and thatthe verymixed composition of the populationof rapid growingtowns is the outcome of an inflowof migrantsfrom all parts of the country,ratherthan fromany particulardistrict. ofthe Cornpostion Population of Jffiddlesbrough according toBirthplaces.
Numbers.
Natives of

Percentwe.
__

1861.

1871.

1881.

1861. 73 2
I.5

1871.
S OI
13*3

1881.
548 | 13l5 23 i*6
21I

Yorkshire ............ 16,179 19,858 30,654 1,854 5,281 7,560 Ourham ............ Northumberland 329 929 1,270 ........ Cumberland 543 537 ............... 138 208 Lancashire............ 725 892 Stafford 109 1,031 1,197 ............ Lincoln.639 556 '717 Norfolk 278 ................... 547 977 Monniouth and Wales 1 530 267 1,680 Rest of England ........ 1,404 3,589 3,182

8.4
0-4
2-9 I12

o-6 O09

I*

2-4 I14

8 z6 1-4

.Io

. Scotland

Irelan(d ............ Otherparts ............ Total.

442

239 42

3,(621

1,163 603

3,686 55, 934

1,55-4 615

20 o0 2. i oo-o

1-2 64 1I

I14 3 -9

8z
29 91l

30 8z z-8

13 1I7

66
I

22,128* 39,563

O- 100-

* In the superintendent-registrairs district of Guisborougli. Middlesbrough onlyhad I8,99z inlhabitants.

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-091

theLaws of Migration.

217

in 1881. Composition of itsPopulation Jliddlesbrough according to Birthplaces.


Percentageof Percentage Natives of Po uain opulation Enunerated in of nd En-la I Mi Middiesbrou,,Adiesh)roug,L.. anlid Wales. Percentage of Migraiits of Co nties Enurmer-ated iti England and Wales.

Natives of

Number.

Yorkshire .*--Durham .7,566 Northumberlaind Cumberland. Westnioreland Lancashire.892 Derby .163 Stafford .1,197 .370 Worcester Gloucester Salop.173 Warwick.224 Lincoln.717 Notts .lll Norfolk .. Suffolk .378 Cambridge Kent. MIonmouth Glamorgan.412 Brecon.78 Cardigan.37 Carmarthen .45 Pembroke Carnarvon .22 of Eng- 1 Remainder land and Wales.. j. Scotland .1,554 Ireland.3,686 Otherparts.615

30,654
I

r4 &
35 2
2'27

1 14
0?09

1,270

543 108

097

0 30 0'21 0-14 0 03 004


0-12

* I aa 8 o 85
0'3 5 0.33

o 20
is6o 029
2-14

O'l3
o054

o 66 206
037

0 09 0-03 0 05 0 03
0

o.z8 o*I o.I5 a12


0-47
05;9

O31
0o40
1I28

13

02O

0 03 0-17 0 09 0-10 0 03 0-19 0-11 0-12 0 04 004 0 0-02 0-03 0 0-61 0-65 020
-.

oa z2
0o26 o0z8 o0l3

977 238 311. 371

1-75 o067
0-42
05

o-66
0o74

o067
0o9g2 0-29

4 o-o6 57
oo10

oI

o-15 0 Is
0
5 oI 3 O-II o aI

o-o8
0o04

2,965

5-31 3 78 26-58
aIO

55,934

aO 00

Q2

218

]AVENSTE-On

Laws of Migration. t7te

[June,

we have to noticethosetownsin whichthe 5. In conclusion, as to resultin represented "floatingelement"is so numerously belowwhatit is in the element of the nativecounty a depression ofthistypebelong. In to whichtowns ruralpartsof thecounties and althoughthe is but rarely decisive, large cities thisinfluence " in every and moreespecially commercial city, "floatingelement large,we have been able,in most is undoubtedly in our sea-ports, in the native countyelementto to traceanydeficiency instances, cause. moreuniversal someother whereit is decisive. At Portshowever, There are instances, soulsincluded(in 1881) 9,942 men of 127,989 mouth a population of assumethata majority of thearmyand navy. We mayfairly in whichtheytemporarily ofthecounty thesemenare not natives with theirdependents, theymustmaterially reside, and,together of the elements the proportions betweenthe constituent affect population,and bring about a loweringof the native county of Portsthe population element. If we deductthesemenfrom at element its elements, thenativecounty compute mouth, and then thanin rural Hamponcerisesto 71 04 per cent., whichis higher and is theborderelement whilst shire, onlyrisesto 9-26per cent., of depression thusstilllowerthanoutsidePortsmouth.A similar whichare the in towns the nativecounty element maybe noticed seats of large educational establishments, siich as Oxford,Camare healthresorts there Then and Winchester. bridge,Bedford, generally which andgrass-widows, and towns affected byannuitants townsof thistype also aboundin ladies'colleges. Representative in exceptional are Bath and Brighton. That thereis something of the population of these townsmaybe judged the composition forwhilstthroughout of females, fromthe large preponderance to everyIOO males,thereare 147in Englandthereare Io0 females Bath, and I28 in Brighton. If in cases of this kind we could ofthepopulation, element thefloating from theresidential separate be foundthat townslike those mentioned it would undoubtedly ofmigrants. theabsorption ruleas respects follow thegeneral Remarks. Concluding of thispaperto placebefore It has beentheobjectoftheauthor ofthe returns an abstract of the the Statistical Societynotmerely but also to of theinhabitants of theUnitedKingdom, birthplaces and to determine, if possible, some consider generally, migration law or rule bywhich it is governed. He is quite aware of the of his essay,but truststhat his compilation manyimperfections not altogether will at least be looked upon as a contribution

10.

INCREASE(OR DECREASE) POPULATION OFTHE


OF EACH COUNTY.
1871- 81.
Shea44.' Deorease.

J
E0

pa I ueuse .

Oiknei

/-XO. SP

I'I

I NCREASE(OR THE DECREASE)OF NATIVES


OF EACH COUNTY.
1871-81.
-

'/Jp >

Decrease.

Incre"~e.

Orkn,&

IAll Sueh.-

.4P

iS'X'1~~~~~Yl
I.

FEMALES TO 100MALES
AMONG THE NATIVESOF COUNTIES.
Slleel+a;'t
R

12.

De2~~~ra9.

99-1'1/0-

//0-1/2.

gJ/-// IX

Ovb~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

am

If:~~~4

AL
York

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN- On theLaws of Migration.

219

without value to a branch of inquiry of peculiar interest to the statistician. The accompanyingmaps will assist in renderingclearersome of his arguments. Ia most instances the line separating the two colours marks the average.

220

RAVENSTEIN-0Th

theLawvs of Migration.
Imci ease orIDecrease, 1871-81.

[June,

APPENDIX.
Natives

Table Illustrative of JMEqration,


Females aco Moles. to every
_ ___ _____

Counities anid Towns.

Popiulit ion,

f of Counities, 1881. PopuilaNatives. to.

Anong Toa 0mn Poplhin Natives.


1Ii 101 103 103

Amonig Native County xo6 97 99


101
102 102o 11

Bedforashire....... Berkshire.......... Btickinglsamshire 1. . ... Cambridgeshire

14-9473 Z18,363 76,323 03 7 644,


185,;94

Riural ............ 500.478 B3irkenheadl 84...... 0o6 .3 Stockport 59,553.... Cornwall 330,686 ........... Cumberlaud ..... . 250,647 Dcrbyshire 46194 ........ . Derby. .......... 8r,i68 Devonshiire ....... 6c,59 Plymouth ..... 73794 D)orset ............ 191,028 Durham........... 867,258 11 Sunderlandi. II6,548 .. S,outh Shiields... 56,875

Cheshire ............

220,049 229,254 608,589


-

113,985 236,015

Percnt.
2-2IiZ 02

54,6
13 1
73

o-o8

Percuit. 9.9 6-4 5-8

7-9 15-5
-

103 106 104

107 o6
0

106 1041
-

103

386,898 254,898 458,449 687,749


-

25

138
05

9- i

2-9 9.6 17-3


-

I I6
113
so'

lOS'S 102 112


-

118-9

117.0
104'9

26,4

234,883 694,2,38 550,769 606,641 565,988


-

73
2

3-7
-

.I0

so6
II I Z2I

113
I119

z 66 i8,6
25-5 235

32-2
-

4'1

104
104 500

95

108 10235) 106


-

I104 113

10V2

Essex

Gloucestersliir ..... Bristol .......0... Haimpsllire........ Portsmouth 12... Southampton .... Herefordsisire......

............. West Main.......

576,3
572,43

13-6
-

10113

12,8,953

3 z6,874 593,470 7,989

105.0 7-1 13'3


90o

13-3
-

97
112l

13,1
-

121
102

107-4

io6-6
119i

99 9

108
-

Hertfordshire

60,051 1i ,062z

Hutntingdonshire ... Kent ............ Lancasliire......... Rural ...........1,315,2-99 Blackburn ....... Bolton .105...... . Burnley........ Bury ...........

59,49 r 9 77,70o6
3,454,44.1

203,069

226,110 900,701 2,831,53


-

146,914

79,305

3'5 ;R6 - 6'4 I152 22-~


04, 21-5
14'3

12-7 11-7

1-4 7-0 - 3-6 16-1 21,5


--

05 112Z 102

I 06
104 104 107
12 Ill

107 103
107
--

105a

II6 113

105

101
I03

99 97

o6
07

106 0

106-5
105
log0

104,014

58,751
, 21I3

o,414

110 I10

43-7
2o,6
120'

io6 io6
-

Liverpool ..........

Ill1 103
-

Oldham .......... Preston ........


Rochdale......... St. Helenis.......

Mksiichester and Salfordl

517,6149

-818
-

68,866
11-,3 76

96,537
57,403

,II343

34'8 io,6 8'4 28 -. 7,6


17

so

109og

118 93

s8
115

1511

Leicestershire ...... Mliddlesex......... London (Metrop.) Moumouthshire 211.. Norfolk ...........


Linicolnshire ......
Leicester.........

32Z1,258

332,902 537,137 2,402,932 2,986,655 194,415 555,347


-

z 72z 19.2

13-7
19.9 20-9 4-5
--

io6
112

103-4 103 111


1011
-

98
1044+ 11 1ot 109

Norwich......... Northamn-ptonshire.. .... Northampton Northumnberland ... Newcsstle & Gateslsesd

4-69,91i9 2,920,485 381I6,483 i ,267 1414

54.9
8-i 9'3
1.4

18-3

8.9

100
114

87,842 5s,881

95 107

iiz

2 72,5 55

298,398
-

434,086
211,i62

427,891
-19-3

z6-o
123

11-7

10-2
-

ii8

107
-

log0 101

14-5
-

io6
103 103

101

103
103-6
-

uS i8

105 99

1034 107

1885.]

RAVlsN8TEI.N-On
____

theLawt,s of Mfigration.
ributoi of' Natives of eacii Coitiltv, 1881.

221

in thbe United Kingdom.


18 _ _ _ _ __thplac__es, _. ilust -Native

England ECnodand Scotlanid. Ireland. anid Wales. Per cur .. 98 7 97 8 98 9 991 I 9412 96 0 84-9 93-3 Per cult. oz Z8 0o48 0.34 O 0
Tt

~~~~~~~~Couiitv Bor-der hisCotinty Ioullty C,lement.


Eleniciit. e wlher Born. Per Clot. 7 6.7 6 74 4 7 828 67, 70 8 49'5 6ri Per ett. 113 18 0 15-8 14-6 18-5 17-2 20 9 25-3 Per cutt. 67 i 6o z 59-6 634 710
-

Border .

Elsewhere 111 inIIsm Kiiugdoni. Per colt.


23 : 239

Cuiisa( ons Counties and Towns.

o 88 Y94 o048 o0I9

98 3 887 98 1

Per cut. 0 33 0-67 0-28 0 27 3 67 2 37 8'81 5-63

tier ( 11i.

9 9 17 2 29!4 12 7 2;3 5
-

I110 55
-

91.0 89-1

97 2 95 4 98 0 92-2

97-1

o 6i 0o38 2.85
4-04 5 39 17z

0 35 o06 0o46

4 87

051 5-62 1 13 1 56 l 1-04 1 94 075 4213 84 3 60

6g:2 82 o

890o 76 4 71-3

17 0

4-8 6-8 17-9

76 4 75;1 7 I8
720o

7-0 18-3 227


-

i6 6 6-6 55
2a

Birkenhead Stockport Cornw-all Cuniherland Derb-sliire Devonishire Dorset Durlham Essex


Plymoutl Derby

Becdfordsliire Berkshire BLuckinghamhire, Cambridgesliiro Cheshire Rurlal

97 3 97-6 96 -5 95 2
93 8 94 9 98-8 94 5

0.76

0?86 0 93 155 193


1-56

71.2 63-9

744 795 67 8

7-1 12 0 11 0 16 2
11-6 16 1 35 1 5 3

55

64:6 84 7
-

15;9 13 4
-

I9.5 19
02

9851 992 95-8 91]0 93 7 9 17 941 2 95 3 945 80-6 89-1 94 9 94-2 95-2 90-1 98-7 98-2 98-8 93 3 93 8 96 5 99-2 98 7 98-9 98-1 907 89-1

si6 I 3 0?33 o0+6

0.97

0o4

0.4

64:8 38*4 73 7
7 63

20 6 13 7

67.8 69 5
-

20'2
-

Sunderland Soutli Shields Ham

132
-

17.3
-

Gloucestershiie
Portsmouth Soutothapton Herefordslaire
Huntinodorishire

West

2-44 1-27 0-48

68-8
6>5 69 8 72'4

o o

o-88 1*6z 1'2 0 77

0 26 421

0-39 1 63 6 15

683 74-0 6a
740I

0o84 o062

o06+ 3-70 1 73 o.56 o-6i


109
032

0-75

0.43 o0z6

1'34 1.30
0?32 0o23

0?37 o02 6 0.3 5 5 39 5.56

4-07 4.39 3 64 424 12 84 7-45 4-01 4-40 3-70 8 49 0-58 0-78 0-41 2-10 212 2 47 0-23 0 38 0-39 0-85 2-88 411

762 87.5
8:

178 144 15-3 8-3

85 10-4 17-0

10 7

7,6
-

11-3
-

17-1
-I:z

Hanipshire

Bristol

101

7 8 -6 6: 6 682z 76.9 86-6 817 79.8


7723 8:*z

74.6

6o 8 69.7 6;9 88 o 87 9 75 9 74 9 73.6 782,

40 414 108 8 57 6-1 7-2 12-1 3-8 7.9 36 -i 13-3 13-8 10-0 12-0 75 18 9 5-3 39 13'7 10-4 9-8 48

64 e,6 78 77 90'4 _
-

597

281

21. 3 5 L 19 8 55 --

14I3
2s

-B_
-

feitfordsliire ie ent I Lanicasliire Rural Blackburn Bolton B uriiley Burv Liverpool K Oldham Preston Rochdale St. Helens Leicestershire Leicester Lincolnshire Middlesex Londoni (Metr-op.) MIoniiiouthslaire Norfolk Norwich Northaaaiptonshire Nortlhanipton Nortlhumberlan (d & Gu-teshead Newvcastle
Manhester

and Salford

742 719

15-3 17-1 16-3 17-5 569 _ 18


-

io05
isIO

7 3.2

10.5 -

717

70-5 -

ioS8 23'6
-

69.3 74.8

179
--

17 4

7-8

222

RAVENSTEIN-On

theLaws of Migration.
orD)ecrease, Increase 1871-81.

[June,

TableIllustrative of Migration
Females to every Ioo Males.
- | N t _|_____ Amon(r Amiong Among- Native To alr Popula. Natives. Coiility

Counties anid Towns.

Popuilation

1881.

Natives of Counities, Of 1881. Populatioti. 381,226 Percnt.


22-6 342

Of Natives. Pererit. 14.5


-

tioxi.

Elenient. 103
II

Nottinghamshire ... Nottingham ...... Rutland ..............

Oxfordshire ............

391,815 I86,575

soN
113

102 102

179,

Wolverhampton ... Walsail .............. West Bromwich . 5. Suffolk... ................. Ipswich ..............

btaffordshire ........... Rural Rural ................. .

Somersetshire ........... Bath ..............

Sbropshire ..............

21,434

222,867
28,606 550,500

248,14 469. I09 5 ,814 98I,013 79, 79 ~~~~~790,I57 75,766 58,795 6,295 50,r46 1,436,899 78,953
490,505

313,531 977,353
--

2.9 o0I

0?9
1V2

2-3
4-4

6i7

- 1-4 14-3
19 I 199 23

3-4

19-2
-

o00 113 I47 1

104 99

106

97 97

105
110

9I

107

97

103
-

101
100 102 10

127

100 100

99

445,785

178 177 31*5 418 I7 5


I 6.3 I6 2

50

99

Surrey ..............

.............. Brighton Warwickshire ........... Birmingham(with


Aston Manor) j Westmoreland ....... Wiltshire ..............

Croydon .............. Sussex ..............

996,655
464,409

30 9
-

1 13
IlO 124

10 108
-

100 101 114 104


110

107,%46
737,339

11-8

696,710
77.759 329,908
-

4 454,616
64,191 258,96 5

18 7
-

12.8
107

III

105

101

105
-

I I6

l1o4 99 99

Worcestershire....... ;8c,283 Yorkshire .............. 2,886,544


Rural ............... Bradford .......1....... Halifax ............... Eluddersfield ....... Hull .............. l eeds .............. Middlesbrough Sheffield ............
1,744,240
183,032

393,847 2,684,925
-

2O-4 C-3 0-7 12'2

I8 5
I6'9

11 8 17-1

7-2 3-3

o6 mo6
103
102 115 113 110 104 102

105 104
__

102 106

15

103

104-5
103 113 I II1
109

24 4 I24 151265

73,630 8 I,841 1154,240 309,119

-,934 284,5o8

402
86

19-3

104 io6 92 101

107 108
105

99

1........... Carnarvon....... 11...... Denbigh.................. (Glamorgan ......5........ Rural .............. 8 vansea ............... Cardiff..............

Brecknock............. Cardigan ...............


Carmarthen

Anglesey . ............

WALES.

51,4i6
70,270

57,746

24,864
111,740
119,349

Fiint .............

80,587
I ,433 65,597

362,975 82,76I

61,722 - o i 66,197 - 3.6 87,063 - 4-4 149,235 7.9 113,241 12.3 120,986 3.6 88,495 5-3 375,153 28-6
-

119

50 20 5-9
11-0

IC4
122

99

109
103

611

20,2
--

7-6

99
95
93 104 95

98

1064 101-7 112 106 107 102 102 104

I07-0

io16
124

110
104

96

103
1 12

95

257 26-8
-1

Merioneth ............. Montgomery ........... P&nibroke ............. Radnor .............. England and Wales..

gI,824 23,528
25,974,439

52,038 65,718

4-

81,828 112,238 33,744 - 7-4 24,855,322*


14.4

51,125

I7.6 - 2-7 - 02

11-2

019

2-8 3-4

112

98 99

97
105

112 100

102 103

107

99 98
95

117

14-6

106

104

* Inclusive ofi08,596 persons, thecounty of whose birth is not. known.

1886.]

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Migration.

223

in theUnited Kingdom -Uontd.


1881. Englrndthplaces,___ |fyl Enp lHnd

1881. Birthplaces, Native ou | (tyC BorderuIn Sctlndmeelnd Sctland.Irelad.EleEemnt Elt. ment. Percnt. Per cnt. Percnt. 0-58 72-5 O035 0.44 0 82 70.8 0 31 74 9 o032 040 67-6 0.44 0-75 78 3 O033 01 8 77-2 O.27 O034 2 O03 1 0-5 0*45 o-19
O2 7

Distribution of Natives ofeach Cauiities a0 Toui1s Elsewhlere Conolty Bore in satie e ordter. wee Cuts.Kingfdoni. Percnt.
1881. Couniity,

and and Wales. Percolt. 98-5 97 8

98-8 98-7
98-6

Per ont. 15-9 15-1

745

Per ePt. 164

Perent.
91

13-5 18-7
12-5

597

98 3 9568 95-5 97-1 96-0 97 6 97-2 97 4 99.0 98-7 96 8 97-7 94 0 95-3 97-1 95-1 95 0 89-5 97 0 98-4 98-5 99 5 99 3 986 98 3 97-2 96 3 97-8 95-2 90 6 99-1 99-2 98 0 99-4 95 7

99.0

984 95-7 98-0 98-1 96-8 97-1 98-9

o.58

1-28 1-33 1-23 2 25 2 13 0-66


0 27

o56 0o96 o'95 o .;6 6 o07


0-39 0.41 0*21 0-31 0-53

1.63

o067 o 8i o.63 o069 o-86 o.56


029 035 O15
037 2'20

II7

0-48 80-o 1-51 51o 1-28 45 7 0-73 69'7 106 64.0 1-31 70 3 1 64 681 O058 73-4 0 30 79.4 0 59 69-I 1-97 8 I7 1-39 72-5 4-29 80o9 3 52 83.8 1 73 88.4 1 60 73-3 3 09 827 658rs4.8 1 76 748 0 83 0-77 0 15 0-29 052 087 86'z 68-2 89-8 85f;3

83 2

6z 6 72*9 77-7 72.9 77 9 76.3

13-4 17-2 13-6 13-8 14-3 10-6 13-1 8-2 26 8 3017 10 8 9-6 15 8 16-8 19-6 119 21 3 7-4 6-6 5-8 5-3 44 11-6 50 13'1
91

652 65 9 77
-

ro,

148 24-7 114 _ 10 4


-

15 1

24.8 19 7 22*7

Nottinghamshire Nottitighaba Oxfordslire

I2 4

66-9
-

_ 73*5

9-2

23 9

21 0 14-8 12-6 33-3 15-9 21-1 79

5.6
I I.5

7137 74-4 60o5 62z3 66 8 87.8


-

130
-

6-2 zi-8
12 1

42

17-1
7I*8 59*4 72-5 7I 4
621I
-

O I9
0-49 0.49 0'3 9 0o23

o-6o O ZI
0.94 0o29 03 3

o018 o g8

2-34 1-62 2'78 5 14 0 26 0 30 1-08 0-20 2-17

1-73

73-5 65.6 678


71-5

79

48-6 75.1 82-6 84.6 770


720o

64.-2

4-3 22-2 56 10-2 11-5 16 4 10-3 12-5 14 7 76 6-8

833

68-3 S88i

11 8 32 4 81 23-1 6-9 17-5 12 9

I 6.4 19'4 r* 5 14.2


22-0 2

82 9

47

Soiimersetshire Bath Staffordshire Rural Wolverhampton Walsall West Bromwicl Stffolk Ipswich Surrey Croydon Sussex Brighton Warwickshire (wtlh Birmingham AstonManor) Westmorelalnd Wiltshire Worcestershire Yorkshile Rural Bradford Halifax uddersfield Hll Leeds Middlesbrough Sheffield WALES. Anglesey Brecknock Cardigan Carnmarthen Carnarvon I)enbigh Flint Glanmorgan Swaneea Cardiff Merioneth Montgomery Pembroke Radnor England and Wales

Xlhropshire

Rutland

Rural

17 1

98 4-4 16-4 12-8

76.4 66.5 69-z 534 75-23t

13-5 14 6 4-5 4 2512-42

I10I

2453 21 *2 12-35

18 9

percent., inclusive of natives of Englantd Walesenumnerait.ed t Or74-75 in Scotlhid and Irelandl. anid

224

RAVENSTEIN-On theLaws of Mlfigration.

[June,

TableIllustrative of Migration
liierease

Counties andToA Toens. Counties atid

Population, Population, 1881.

Natives of Couinties, Of 1881. Populationi


9*2 193

I)ecrease; 1871-81.
o0

Females to every Ioo Males. Amionglo Total" Among- Amoing Naitive Plun Natives County
tioui

Of Natives.
aie.

aie.

Element.
o09

Aberdeen Argyll...... .... .

Aberdeensliire 9....... .
.

SCOTLAND.

..... ...... Ayrshire ......0..... Ayr..... Kilmarnock 25,844


Berwick .. . Bute ......... .1...

I o, i 89 80,76I
21 2,987

0 69,47

272,130 92,431 232,894


-

Percuit. 14 83
I 5

Percint.
11*2
1Q9

7,630

101

40

Ii8 o0z
104 110

110

114 107
-

I 20

io6
129

103

Ban

.................

Dumfriesshire...... Dumfries . Edinburgli . .

I7,634 Caithness ............ 39,859 Clackmannan ............ 24 025 Dumbarton .. ............. 78,182
17,092

............ 35,273

25,844 59,783

I169

73,453 40,171 14,366 45,893 25,202 80,883 276,574


I-

_9-0

3-0

39
2-8

75,i66

56,252

z8*o

8-o

t8
I

73 15 2-4 2-0 13-5 15-9 1-9 16-6 66 69


-

III

I105 109

108

III III
19

I I8

Is0 0o2

108 120 115 106 105 112


_

io6 III
113

II

s0o
iz

I07

Fife . .............172,I31 189,074 Dunfermline I 7,o84 .. . Forfar . 227,191 .............268,653 0 Arbroath . .............. 2,785 Inverness-shire ...... 86,3 89 Inverness 17,38 5 Kincardine ... .............35,465 Kinross ............. 7,3 30
Kirkeudbriglit Dundee l1addington . . 140,239 38,510............3

Edinburgh (with Leith) 28 7,842 . Elgin . . ............. 45,108

............ 388,836

10.7

18'5
9-

1 12
I I5

110

24.

46,306

Isz
7-0
142

Is I
113

110

1
-

109
I10

111

I I2
122

itao 14.
8o
i

1 3-7

1 22
I27 I 9

127

113
-

ii6 99

44,434 99,841 42,642 9,237 40,113 667,335


-

7-7
9

1 25

2.5

I 98

0?7
30 - 0 01 - 4-3 25-3
-

105

Lanark

4 ,

Orkney ... . ............32,040 Peebles ........... ... 13,688 Perthshire .......1..... I30,282 Perth . . 28,980 Renfrew .... . ...........225,6I Rural. . I03,29 Greenock .......... 66,704 Paisley 55,638 Ross and Cromarty.. 79,967 Roxburgh ................52,592 Hawick 16,I84. Selkirk . ............. 26,346 Shetland.............. 29,705 Stirlingshire ....0.. io6,883 Suthei-land ,.. . ............. Wigtown
Stirling ................ .I 6

Liullithgow ............. Nairn ............. .

Airdrie . Harnilton Rural .......

Glasgow.

...................

2 90

0.5
I9-7 -

io 74

io6 1o8

114 109 112


106
_ -

101

ii8

s II
122

103
115 I 13 I0

110

I2 I03 113 I05


103 I01 I

. .

942,206

5I .

I,415

13,363 I8,5I7 ............ 4I4,213

6 o
37I 5.6
2.5 12-1

80o og

I io6
101

Iog
04

44,005

8,847

46,126 9,076 34,271 148,833 186,598


I5-0

63

14,272

14

13 1 16 30 3-8 - 10 15 1
-

96 94

i o I I,4 1o9
II0

9'

105 119 105 111-3 109


ll

io8 ii6
105

96

I 32 I s.
15*4

sC8
I 2

1156

III4 I120 110 I04 112

107

91,777 53,773 16,448 31,907


_2

15'3

95

35 4 34

3-3 90o

0-02 3-4

I9 I12

IIO
110 I0O ioo

111-8 107-8 103-3 145


107
-

io8
104 141

I12

111,195

6o 3-9
I

I4-5

43-1 - 59 11-4
1-8

135

103*7
1IO 112

100

22,376 38,4.8 3,735,573

6O02

26,7V3 42,169
, 3,397,75!9

3-2

io8
I13

io8

0.4

113 113
110

115 so8

Total ............

I 12

11-0

io8

* O- 68-8 per ceit. i,ieliv4ive of inatives of Scotland

1885.]
Bitplcs 1881. Birthplaces,

RAVENSTEIN-071

the Laws of Migration.


ofeacl of Natives Distribuitioni County, lb8l.
III

225

intheUnited Kingdom-Oontd.
1881.e _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
&ngland 15 Wales.

aiid

andTowns. Border Border Elsewbere Counties nty Couinty Cou ~~~~~~~~Elenient. in sanie Scotlaiid. [relaiid. Element. whlere o
Born. King-domll

o_

Nativ e

Border

cllt. clot. Per ent. Per ent. Pler Per-

1-28 2-38 1-31 2-49 3-43 1-52


0-68

97.8 95 9 96'7 89.4 89.4 93-6


98 8 9 24

0-38 0-68 1 550 7-65 6 08 4 45


0-23

84.8 78.7 72z6 77-3 7519 80'7


76 2

Per etit.

64-1 181 063 1-85 2-07 5 04 6-48 4 67


4 93

93 q 98 9 96-o 86-z
93.I

88*9 897/ 97 9 96'8 97-3 93 0 96'6 89-0


99 89-5

1-01 360 0-17 1'07 11-02 1-31 3-72 3-80 0 31 0 86 1-53 4 62 1L25 816 3'70 0-41 0 88 0-29 0 40 2 02 12-21 13-12
3'08

71'7 ;3-3 88-o 609g 44-7 74-9


63.9 56 8 559 8sI

9-2 11-0 11 6 99 11-0 96 17-6 14-3 8-3


6-0

Percoit.

83-8 634 7 22
-

Percit.

85a
-

Percnt.

7-7

12 9 22 6 25-5 24 6 105 202 32 9 20 0 11-9 98 8.4 7-5 27-6


-

23 -7

54z

63-5 63;o 609g 58 0 6o z 7 1-8 79 8 68 o 73-8 84-7


-

21-2 30 8 11.9 28-5 13-0 17-4 6-9 6-7 15-0 7-8 162 12 6 24"9 23-8 31-1
194t 13f6 11 2

76 2

2.6

28-6
2I*2

sl O 12 4

Aberdeenshire Aberdeen Argyll Ayrshire Ayr Kilmarnock Banff

SCOTLAND.

Berwick

ZI 8 69 8z
-

8.3

Bute Caitbness Clackinannan Dunmbarton Dulmfriesshire Dunrfries Edinburgh

1-21 1-56 0-92 1-71 1-62 2-04 2-94 1 2l 2-77 1 11 0 87 4*17 3 00 3-14 3410 2-93 2-49

697

22-Z

97 8 95-3
982

1 14

98 4 9 33 84 0 82z8

94 9 7 16 8f + 66 o 68X 794 62-1 68-7 686 59-7 6I 3


72.9
;

17 8

7.8
132 15.6 30-3 -

g9-z 57 3 84-3
-

15411

zz

0-63 2-09 1-80 2-93 2-17 1-80 3 14 15 3 0(69 5-71 5-73 2-69 0 43 2 83 0-72 2 37
148

1-21

88 8 85.o 89.4 98 0 98-9 95*5 93*4 83.6 83.2 79-5 89 o 98-9 92'3 9i18 94 7 993 3 98 9
9T 9I 0

88.3

10-17
7 41 11-16 7 65

72.4

960o

0-15 1-99 1-63 2-93 1349 14'30 16 07 8-98 01l83 1-37 2-22 222 ()7 4-87 0 16
6-11 117

0 26

928 49-0

6o04 565 57.6 yof6

15 1 11-1 109 112 20 4 251-

41 4 72'4

32 8 28'3 17-9 11.9


_ -

99

9*7 3.8
__ -

Elgin Fifc Dunfermline Forfar Arbroath Dundee Haddington Inverness-shire Iinvcrness Kincardine Kinross Kirkcudbright Lanark Glasgow amilton Riiral Linilithgow

Edimburgi (with l.eitt)

Airdrie

-_

24-6
23 29-8 16'5 12-7 19-0 23-5 178 14'7 9-4 16 5

51 3 55I

56.8

70-1

53 8 6.3 86-6 46 9 6m 8 68 7
-

---

39-2 22-7 1-8 42 7 222 26f7 _


-

7-0
210o

12-3 10-4

Nairn

i 6o

4615.1
-

690o 88+ 68 8 458 948


70-I1

76-5 673
9os5 61-3
--

84; 2-4l4 19 8
28-1
-

8.3 6-8
_

Orkney Peebles Pcrthshire Pertli Renfrew Rural Grecnock Paislev Ross acd Cromarty Roxburgh Selkirk Slietland
awiCk

9*

63 5 8 783

59 9 835

219
|
'

316 03 i' 1.
7s3

73-4

06 _ -

1o06
22 9 lO 0

8-9

Stirliuigs8iiro

7i*8

70 1
7z2
74*

12 .;
15-6

4P9

17-4

Stirliiig Suitherland
Total

Wigtowni

14288 586i 2-46 _9-o0 and in lr.iadiitl. in l}nwohid and W-ales cittl111erated

226

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

[June,

Table Illustrative of Migration


Natives

or Dlecrease, lncrease 187141l.


-_ _ _ _

Females to every ioo Males. Amonc


_ _ _ _-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

andTowns. Counties

Populiation,

1881. 881.

f of Counties, O Of'1881. Pop'uTotal Natives. tion.


t_on. 355,216
-

Popula-

Among Natives.

Amono Native Counity Ele_ent.


I Iz'
I09

Antrim

IRELAND.

Belfast (Union) ........ Armagh ................ . ............. Carlow Cavan .............. Cork, County ............ . Cork .....
Clare ..............

..............

42T,943 239,_83

Percit.
-

Per cnt.
17 -

63,177 46,568 129,476

169,872 52,862 136,009 478,754


211,862 287,310 285,528 -

i8i 9
-

495,607 80,115
2o6,035 272,107 418,910 169,2 74

141,457

144,432

8,o 4-3 41
1-9

98

8-2 78 69 40
50 l 0 0'5 -

I I9
II0

Iiz4

111'6
_

101
100

102 99-5 104-7 107


113 1113
-

111

43

99 IOI
113

99
-

104-8
114 104
III

98'8 99

98

Dublin (Cits) ........ ,, (Union).... Fermanagh . ............. Galway .............. . Kerry ...... Kildare .............. Kilkenny. ............. King's County ........ Leitrim .............. Limerick, County ...1. Limerick ............ Londonderry,County Londonderry Longford. ............. Louth .............. Drogheda .9.......... Mayo .............. Meath .............. Monaghan ..... . Queen's County ........ Ro3common 32............ . Sligo . . . Tipperary Tyrone . .............. Waterford, County1... Waterfo.d ............ Wcstmeath ............ Wexforj ............... Wicklow ............... Ireland ...............

Donegal .............. l)own ....... Dublin, County ........

56 73

105
I12 II2 o 0i6

345,245 84,879 242,005


201,039

75,804 99,53 I 7z,852 90,3 7 z I 80,63 * 58,4oo 6 I,009 77,684

87,138 241,503 201,494 75,347 104,082 71,749 92,107 179,357 159,450


-

65 3*5 8-5
31I 23

34

114-7

93 - ?o
-

40

54 59

90 3-4 1-2 5-2 8-3 4-3 5-3 5-6


-

110
102 i?I

98 86 96
I

103
100 104 I I

102 101-8 100 99 105 99 100 105-3 106-3 98-6 106 107 100 103 98-9 99 102-4 103 106 108
-

ii6

100 Io,i8 99-8 94


104

96
99
I

105. 112

38,;55 I 64,991

Z0

61,990 75,721
-

87,469 102 IZ,748 73,124 1,490


I 11,578 I 9 7,7 I 9 Z 245
99,6Iz

I Zi297 245,212

12,769

245,550 98,923 109,097 79,843 132,239 110,509 203,502 207,788 108,737 76,588 132,508 88,223 5,062,287 34,538,048

-io06 - 83 - 5.8
-

o-6 54 7-5 89 o I 8.5

5.1

6-1 4-6 83

1c8 77 98

105.5 I03

34

7 1,798 12 3,854 70,386 5,174,836

84 8-6 38 - 8-5 - 6-6 -io-6 -

0-2 - 4-5 -34-3 - 5-2 - 6f4 -12 1 - 75 -a - 6-6 - 7-9 59 6-1

ii6 io6 loo


I05

I03

Ic5
I15

97 6

Io6 95
104

98 99

98,8 99

IO0 10IO

IOI9

Io5
112

io6 96

103 104
I07,6 II4

7-7
4-6 10-3

103

101 104

99 103 106 lOo 106

96 96 98

49
io 8

I04
105

United Kingdom .... 34,884,848

io6

* Or776 per iniclusive ofniatives centt. of Ireland

1885.]

RAVENSTEIN-On the Laws of Migration.

227

?in theUtnzited Kingdom-Contd.


'Distribution ot Natives each Birthplaces, 1881. B}irthplaces, 1881. of 188ativeCounty, tve lorder B I Coutnty oer England rder Elsem-here Counties andTowns. c ~~~~~~~~~Element. Bre Cuiy Scotland. Ireland. Element. and Coernt Counties. in same Wales. ~~~~~~~~~Born.Kingdlom. Per cnt. Per cnt. Percnt. Perent. P-rent. Percnt. Per cutt. Percot. IRELAND. 1-50 96-7 78-2 14-7 92 9 5-3 i*8 1a36 Antrim 2-69 94 4 9-4 230 78.6 Belfast (Union) 0-53

0-79
0-43 2-09 3 59

0-28

0.40 O0I 3 0*07

99.1

98 5

87-9
86-o 93 4
9Z-7
951I

o1I4

99 4

0-37 1-18 4-56


5-35
4-91

rI'o o.8 7
V22 O3 1 0.14 o I2

0o36 o084

oz26 o5

99 3 97 1 94-8

990 97 7 93-2
92-5 98-9 98 8 98-8 93-2 98-7 98-0 99 4
92 7

87.2

99 4.9 2-5 2-4

7-4

84.5
75.8 88 9 93 2
952^ -

91

7-3
42 19

5-2

151 59 2-6
2-9 2.5

8z2

Armagh Cavan
Carlow

62-6 89.5
6o-8 942

95 6 87.6 6 i9

2-1 10 8
6-7 2-6 18 11.1
12-1

7-3

924 83 o go98
-

5-1 11-4 25
6-9 2-5 2-5 7-8 7-4 5-6

5.6

6-7 8

Donegal Down DuLblin, County


)ublin (CitY)
,,

Clare Cork, County Cork

0 55 0-80 088 5-49

0-85
1-26 0 30

o064

o- 4
0o29
0.14

4 70 0 76 1-66 0 97 1-28 1-20 0 59


0-71

1-30

oi 6
054 c 82
14.5 o025

0.15 0.35

0-66 0-33

C013

o i6 o z5
021

93 5 98 0 96-3 98-6 98-1 98-0 99-1

98-2

96.4 75' 90?9 83-8 93-4

89-1
76 8'7 6 6o-9 9O-8 84 5 8;,o 96.3

9-6 4-7
_-

5-3

87.2 94-4 962z 7/8

86.5

208

7-2

8 >z 91*7 9o-6

34 5.8
27

3.I 13

Fermanagh Galway Kerry

(union)

7-4

89-8
-_

6-5

8-5 15-4 5-1 93


-

894 86-6 96'1

7-2 _ 4-4 5-1


_.

2-2

3-7

King's County Leitrim

Kildare Kilkenny

990 99 3
98-8

87 9 9I-8
93-1
8832 92 8

1-7 8-2 59
6-5

77 8 86.5
92-9 94 0
70 7

19-8 6-7
414 3-0 90 6-1
7-1

2-2

6-2 8.3 _

2.4 6-8
22-2

I.7

Limerick Londonderry, Cnty. Londonderry Longford Louth Drogheda Mayo

Countv Limerick,

Meath Monaghan
Queen's

0-91 0 47

0-33 1-22
2-85

1-18

035 0-17
O049

o036 o.14

ox,o

98-7 99.0 99.1 98-2


95.9

98-3

89-8
91i8 87-3
7J*o

4-4 3-8

2-7
3.0

6-5
6f6 8-2

88*i
88-6 go96
-

7-2

4-7
2.4 3-3
I 2*0

Roscommon Sligo

County

Tipperary

Tyrone Waterford, County

1-02 0-80
1-14

0o14 o01o
0-30

98-4 98-9
98-2

87.83 93-44
84.3

6-14 2-81
9 82

67.3

82z4 874

-Waterford

5-6 39
29

29-8

8.7

Westmeath Wexford
Wicklow

1-34 717

O043 10-50

97-5
16'7

89-6
73'8

4-1
116

89-6*
74-5

4-2 11-7
I3.

6z
7

Ireland UnitedKingdom

in England enunmerated andWalesandin Scotland.

228

[June,

DiscUSSIONon MR. RAVENSTEIN'S PAPER.

not having been able to preparea writtenpaper in time to be printedwith his tables, would not preventmembers from enteringupon a profitable discussionon the important subject which had been broughtbeforethem. Doubtless many had personal knowledge, notofthelaws of migration but oftheactual factsof migration in different partsof the kingdom, as affecting theydid theircriminalpopulation, theirincreaseof population, and also their socialexistence. The influx of thepopulation from theagricultural intotheurbanand manufacturing districts was one of the immensely difficult problems of the presentday,and was one which was niot confined to England, butexisted in France, in theUnited States,and was increasing in other countries throughout Europe. He hoped that the very pregnant and important matters themwouldlead to a profitable placed before discussion. as Mr. Ravenstein, direction notin suchan elaborate though way. He held in his handsa mapin which he had coloured thecounties of Englandand Wales withthreecolours, to theresults according obtainedby comparing the actual increasein the ten years as showni by the census,withthe naturalincreaserecorded by the of tlleregisters comparison of births and deaths. In every county thlere was a veryconsiderable naturalincreaseby excessof births overdeaths, because the Englishdeath-rate is exceptionally low, antl the birth-rate somewhat high; but owing to migrationi the actual incteaseof the different cointies was verydifferent from the naturalincrease; the couinties fell into three categories, first i-OL popnlation. therewerethosecouinties in w-wih at theenumeration IL I8,sl wvas smnallertiai- al 1871; thesewerevery few in i ll() townsof any cUhsiderableinagnitude: they nuiulber, td(
Huntinog-dn,(;Ct-bridge, mdnd Rutliaid The only towns of any (onsielatIc sal is z tlhose cOunties were Sh rew-bury and Camnbridge. T1ietn at thy, otliwieiid of the scale there were Ilhosecouiltieswhich had increased cons.'kJ rahlymore than the natural increase, mainly, the great seats of manufactureand mining, Durham, Yolkshire, Lancasihire, Cheshire, Derby, Nottingham, Leicester, and the counties in the immediate neighbourhood of London, Essx, Middlesex, Kent, Surrey, and Sussex. The greater portion of England came into the third category,i.e., counties in which the population had increased but not to such an extent as the natural increase would lead one to expect, owing to the fact that in all of them emigration had exceeded immigration. Mr. Ravenstein stated that people migrated not from one county direct to the of population,hutmoved fromeach countyas it wereinto the celntre
coflipriscoA West rorlaiid,

THE PRESIDENT said he hoped that the accident of Air.Ravenstein's

Dr. G. B. LONGSTAFF said he had done a littlework in the same

Shrupsh ire, Ulere ord, Dorset, Cornwall,

1885.]

Discussionon Mr. Ravensteirb's Paper.

229

next,and so on, moving towards the centre,and he (Dr. Longstaff) shouLld like to know whetherhe found in the peripheral counties that the native county element was very large. According to his theory they would for example expect to find tlhatin Norfolk, Anglesea, Carnarvon, Pembrokeshire, and Cornwall, the people were almost entirely natives, because there was -noplace beyond from which migrants could come, since none of them contained seaports of any consequence. Speaking of Devonshire, he noticed that there was a veryconsiderable migrationof Devon people into Wales, and of Welsh people into Devon, so that the Severn was not bv any means the barrier that it might be supposed to be. AVhen his map showing the relation of migration to natural ilncreasewas compared with a map showing the density of the population,they would findpraetically,which of course was a fact gener-ally known,that where the population was densest there was the tendencyfor it to increase most,and people mostlywent from the thinlypopulated to the densest portions. It was an interesting problem to findout what was the real annual decennial migration fromplace to place. Take for instance the Germans in Eingland: the census showed a greater number in 1881 than in 1871. According to the usual process of subtracting one fromthe other, the ordinarywriterin a newspaper would tell them that so many thousand people had come into England fromGermanyin the ten years. But a little thoughtwould show that the stream of migration must have been very miich larger than that, because duiring the whole time there had been Germans dying in England at presumably the same rate as English people. Mr. Humphreys lad sugg-ested a way of ascertaining the real increase as follows: take as the average German born population the mean of the numbersenumeratedin 187] and 1881, and then assuming in place of any better facts that they died at the same rate as English people, theycould get an approximationto the numberof Germans that bad died in En)gland during the ten years; and as the population had increased, it was obvious the total migrationconsistedof a number equal to those who had died added to the enumerated excess. The migration of Irish was very large into this couLntry, but seeing that the Irish population enumerated in 1881 was smaller than in 1871, the firstidea that one might have would be that there had been no migrationof the Irish. But if they allowed for the death-rate in the interval they would find that the migration was very considerable,althoughl it was not sufficient to make up for the deathi-rate. He thought the law laid down by Mr. Ravenstein might be true for most completely settled countries, but it was not altogethertrue. If they looked at the facts of the Uniited States, where of course the foreign element was a very large one,they would findthat maps coloured to show the distribution of the foreignbornof each nationality were quitte An different. Irishman as long,he remained in Ireland talked about nothing but the land; possession of land was his idea of bliss, and the land laws were the cause of all his misery; neverthelessin the United States and Canada they did not find the Irish population most dense where most land was to be had, but it was greatest in the great

230

Di.scussion

[June,

cities of the Eastern States. It was not so with otherpeoples. If they would findthem going to the great they took the Gernmans, wheat growing States, Minnesota,Dakota, and Wisconsin. There wsas no Scandinavian populationin the Eastern States, but in Dakota and Minnesota they formedno less than 13 or 14 per cent. of the total inhabitants. The British population was more evenly distriwas bated over the whole,but very naturallythe largest proportion they went to other in Upper Canada. So that it would be found-if that there were countries where conditions were very different, other laws which would interferealtogether,and might even turn the tables completely upon Mr. Ravenstein's law and produce results quite different. He thought they ought to be very grateful Mr. Ravenstein had brought before for the interestingfacts wlhich tlhem. Mr. NOEL A. HUMPHREYS said the author had made some parts of Middlesex. The small allusion to the extra-metropolitan proportionof the enumeratedpopulation born in the extra-metropolitan districts was apt to be very deceptive. The growth of Middlesex was larger than the population in extra-metropolitan that in almost any otherso-called registrationcountyin Enigland, and although the population born thereinbore a verysmall proportion to the total numberenumeratedtherein,that was not due to any strong tendencyto migration,but rather to the overpowering numbers of those wlho had come over the bordersof London and were born in other parts of Middlesex, thereby apparently of the natives of that portion of the reducing the proportioni county. This must not be attributed,as Mr. Ravenstein rather appeared to do, to any unaccountabletendency in the natives of that countv to nmigrate. There was one other point in which he explicit. He had thougbt Mr. Ravenstein was not sufficiently stated that the increase of the natives of Durham had been 32 per cent. in the ten years; but the information given was not sufficient in order to ascertain that very accurately,since the last census was the first occasion on which the natives of the countyhad been grouped together in the way to facilitate the inqutirywhich Mr. Ravenstein made. The enumerated natives of Durlam in 1881, however, included all the children of the immigrantsinto the countv since 1871. There was one very startling fact with regard to the county of Cornwall,viz., that the natural increase of population in that counityduring the last ten years was 32,ooo, and yet the recorded population had decreased 34,000; so that Cornwall actuallv contributedto the increase of other places to the extentof 64,000 in that period. The subject was one full of interest,and at the same time full of perplexityon account of small areas. of localising the migrationsin sufficiently the difficulty of bringing The PRESIDENT said he would take the opportunity with regard beforethe memberssome very interestinginformation to the non-progressof the population of France, touching,upon which had been published in the March number this very questioni, of the "Journal of the Statistical Society of Paris," anidhad reached

1885.]

on Mr. Ravenstein's Paper.

231

him last Saturday. It was contained in a paper by M. Loua, the general secretary of the society, showing the changes of populain the last fiveyears,and bringingprominently tionin France chiefly between what he called the natural and into notice the difference the artificialincrease of the population, viz., the excess of births over deaths in each locality,and the increase independentof that change. Mr. Ravenstein's paper did not bear upon that sabject, but it was a very importantelement in considering the question, and if they had the statistics complete with regard to births and deaths throughout the kingdom,which he believed to a certain extentthey had, anyone who would undertaketo make an abstract of them,would be able to compareforeach part of the countryhow far the changes were due to the natural excess of births or deaths and how much to migration. He had hoped that perhaps Mlr. Ravenstein might have touched upon that branch of the question,but his subject was large enough as it was; still it was one that mightbe usefullytaken up byany gentlemaninterestedin it, and would well repay him for his labour. Now with reference to France, we find there the population is almost stationary. M. Loua says, " You know already that since 1870 our population has scarcely increased, that is to say, the excess of births over in the year; and thatallowing forimmideaths is less than iOO,OOO it is not more than 150,000." As the present grationof foreigners population of France is 37 millions, you can understand the increase is 0o3 per cent. at the outside. So that it is really almost stationary. M. Loua goes on to say that "if you examine the details more closely,it will be shown that the greater part of our is becoming depopulated day by day, while certain more territory to the great detriment of the favouredregionsincrease incessantly, for national equilibrium. This is a point which it is unnecessary me to prove, because it is generallyadmitted." He then proceeds to show that, comparing the census of 1876 with that of 1881, in fiveyears therehad been an increase of 766,ooo souls, and of these countydistricts. The populationof these forty-seven large towns, which was abont I2 millions,had increased little more than half-amillion (56I,869), while that of the rural districts,being about had only increased about 200,000 (204,30I). He then 25 millions, shows that among the city populationsembracingthose forty-seven I2 million inhabitants, principaltowns,and containinig the natural increase by excess of birthsover deaths in those five years was only38,480, and the artificial increasebyimmigration was ,o8,ooo. The whole paper was well worthyof examination, showing as it did that the populationof France was in the most strikingway, first, almost stationary, and secondly, that the changes were derived entirelyfrom the movementof the population from the country into the towns and from the introductionof foreigners. During the five years mentioned (1876-81), while the increase of the French in France was about half-a-million, the increase native-born was about a quarter of a million; so that one-third of foreigners of the total increase during that period consisted of foreigners.
56 I,000

werein theforty-seven principal cities; and 204,000

in the

of foreigners in 1881 was i,ooi,o90. The totalnumber


VOL. XLVIII. PAR'T II.

Of these

232

Disaussion

[June,

432,256 were Belgians, chieflysettled in the departmentsof the Nord, the Seine, and the Ardennes. The Germans accounted for in the Seine, 35,954, and Meurtheand Moselle only 82,000; chiefly some twentyyears ago, had now increased to 241,OOO. They were to be found clieflyin the Bouches du Rhone, the Alpes Maritimes, the Seine, and the Var. Spaniards accounted for73,786, chiefly in the Basses Pyrenees and Pyre6enesOrientales. The Swiss were 66,281, of whIom 23,422 were in the Seine; and the English were Calais, and 2,347 in the Alpes Maritimes. The factsadduced with regard to the migration fromthe countrydistrictsinto the towns liad a distinctbearing upon Mr. Ravenstein's paper, and gave him the opportunity of expressingthe hope that that gentlemanwould carry out his intention of extending his inquiry to the several E uropeancountries, and show in a subsequentpaper the migration fromone countryinto the otherthat was theregoing on throughout the continent. and political Rev. I. DOxSEY said therewerevarious commercial circumstances that seemed to affectthe law of migration. Some there was an objection on the part years ago in Northiamptonshire of the workingclasses to use machines,and when the mastersfound that they could not get on with their workpeople,the trade was to a very considerable extent driven out of Northampton and settled itself in Kettering,Wellingborough, Leicester, and other towns, causing a migrationaltogether unusual durino the period of time in whlich the masterswere contendingwith their workpeople. And later still with regardto the iron shipbuildingtrade, it would be in their recollectioil that at one time there was a considerable shipbuilding trade on the Thames, but owing to the failure of a large shipbuilding company, a considerable district on the borders of that river was almost entirely deserted, and the shipbuildinig trade took its flightprincipallyto the Clyde. He suggestedwhether similar circumstanceshad not been operating during the last ten years in regard to the migration of population from the country places to the towIns. It was well known that agriculturehad been very seriously affectedin two ways, partlybecause agriculturists found it desirable to lay down their farms in grass instead of tillage, which caused a considerable portion of the countrypopulation to seek refuge in the towns wherever they could find employment; and partlybecause a considerable number of farms had lain idle, and therefore labourers were necessarilydrivenaway fromthe rural districts, fromwhat Mr. Ravenstein had called the countryportionof the counties,into the town population,and some of them to considerable distances in order that they might find work. He did not know how far Mr. Raveiistein had looked into that poirtion of the question,buitit did seem to him that in ascertaining the causes of the migrationof population during the last teniyears they must necessarily take these conlsiderationsinto the great changes that had taken accounltesp3ciallyremembering place in agriculture.
37,oo6, of whom I2,636 were in the Seine, 5,704 in the Pas-de12,000. Then came the Italians, who having been only 76,ooo

1885.]

Paper. onMr.Ravenstein's

233

Mr.ROWLAND HAMILTON, while highlyappreciating the value of felthe must them, had laid before thefacts that Mr. Ravenstein to theuse that had beenmadeof theword" law " takeexception had to be of them. The workof investigation in the discussion out from sometimes by working processes, carriedon by reversed and sometimes by taking a law to its consequences, consequences, whichaided the discovery of fromtheminferences and drawing " law," but did not in themselvesconstitute a " law ;" much a " law," and thenexplaining arosebyformulating confusion away
its action, as if what was a law iD one sense was not a law in another. A natural "law " worthyof the name could not admit of any exceptions. The conditions laid before them were but a portionof a verylarge and intricatequestion,and would constantly be modified by other facts. It seemed to him, as faras he had been able in the last ten or twelve years to watch some of the issues of this question, that there was within the small area of Great Britain what they mightnotice on a larger scale in historictimes, in overcomingwhatmight be called the viz., a very great difficulty vis inertia, especially in rural districts. The population would remain for a long time under circumstancesof much hardship induced them to face a beforesome great necessityor opportunity change. When that was once made many joined a class moveable as compared with their former stationaryclass. In England at the present time there were trades which could migratefromone but when it came to taking place to anotherwith little difficulty, up an entirelynew occupation, it required a very much larger force to initiate the first change. Some twelve years ago, for example, there was a considerable demand in the northernmining especiallyDurham,forlabour,and employerssent farand countries, wide to get it. They attracted a considerable number of agricultural labourersfromNorfolk,and the resultwas curious,and by no means unsatisfactory. Some of those men came back again and said that the change was all a delusion, that they had to work harder and to spend a good deal of the enhanced wages in the food necessaryfortheir support. Others of a more vigorous class, even when admitting this, preferredtheir new way of life,and to have the choice of spending theirown moneyin theirown way. Thus under new conditionsa new division of populationarose. Many of these considerationswould come under Mr. Ravenstein's inquiry, and would throw a very great deal of light upon the curious which existed in the and modifiability mixtureof imperturbability very mixed population of this country.

Mr. S. BOURNE confessed to sharing with MIr. Hamilton the of recognising the use which Mr. Ravenstein made of difficulty the word " law." It did not appear to him fromthe result of the investigation that there was anything, strictlyspeaking, in the way of law to be discoveredwhich regulated the migrationof the population fromone part of the countryto another,unless it was the simple law of demand and supply. Very great light had been problems of the present thrown upon some of the most difficult day by the referencethat the President had made to the statistics R2

234

Djqcussion

[June,

of France. It did seem exceedingly strange that whilst France was not increasing at all in population, her rulers should be so bent upon adding to her territory. It was well known thoroughly that though France was not increasingin her own poptilation, she was increasingveryrapidly in her demand for food,proving that her population must be employed to a very much greater extent than before in manufacturingoperationsratherthan agricultural. This had an important bearing upon the relation in wbich England stood with regard to France and the other countriesof the world; and though he did not wish to introducethe question of protection or prohibition,or fair trade or free trade, yet there was a very to be derived fromthe facts of the case great deal of information as bearing upon these questions. They were often told that England was necessarilyon the eve of a great change, because all other nations had adopted an opposite fiscal system to her own. Nothing could be more delusive than that, because the circumstances of the countries were very different. France, with her and stationarypopulation, her decaying agricultural employment, her increasing mauufacturingoccupations,could not be governed by the same fiscallaws as this country,wherethey were increasing their population rapidly. It ought to be a great satisfactionto know that different circamstances prevailed in England to those existing in France. England possessed immense territoriesof fertile soil in which to plant her surplas population, and her resources were sufficient to meet the emergencies in which she might be placed. No doubt theycould not lose sight of the fact that they were at present in a position of very great difficulty, though he would hardlysay that it arose from a surplus population, because he was one of those who believed that whilst there was an acre of land capable of producingfood,it was a misnomer to talk about surplus population at all, and that the wealth of the empire under proper economical conditionsand proper legislation would be increased more and more by largelyincreasingits population rather than by retardingit. Any investigationas to the facts of migration,and the circumstances in which they were placed, must be extremelyvaluable as guiding decisions unquestionably of the very greatest moment. They were therefore worthy of the consideration of their statesmen and political economists to a much greaterextentthan had hithertobeen given them,for it was upon the properuse of the information theyhad, and the proper embracingof the opportunitiespresented to them by their colonial empire,and by the conditionsin which they were placed, that the future prosperity of the country was to be determined. Mr. RAVENSTEIN, in reply,said he had been asked by Dr. Longstaff whethertherewere any facts to show that migration did not take place for long distances. There certainly weremanysuch migrants, but as a rule migrants merelywent to neighbouring parishes or counties, and a careful consideration of the facts showed that London, and other towns where there was a demand for labour, were only approached by degrees. He thoroughlyagreed with

1885.]

on Mr. Ravenstein's Paper.

235

Mvrf. Humpbreysthatthe censuslacked information on certainpoints, and should like to see sub-registrars'districts more equal in size. Perhaps the new parliamentary divisions might be adopted as the futurestandard,instead of this incomprehensible mass of districts, parishes,counties,and registration counties,whichwere no counties at all. At the same time the census returnsformany years back enabled them to say that so many natives of a certain countylived in England, and to determine the increase which had taken place among them. This increasein several instances was so considerable, that he should have hesitated to accept it had it not been confirmed by successive censuses. He had incidentallyreferred to certain disturbing influe-nces which tended to obscure the general law of migration. There was no doubt that in many cases the sending of a garrisoninto a town,or the removal of prisonersor of school children,would affect verymaterially the constituent elements of the populationof a town; but if they separated this floating or flitting element fromthe settled population,they would findthese towns returnto allegiance to what he believed to be the process of migration. He was able to say that whetherwe took the census for 1861, 1871, or 1881, the results would still be the same. The greatest element of disturbancewas the number of Irishmen in certain towns; he did not say this offensively, he merelymeant that the number of Irishmen in Liverpool, for instance, was so large as to depress the native county element. In large towns, however, this elementof disturbancewas not of much weight. If they had information about smaller places, these elements of disturbancewould no doubt become very prominent features in a good many instances. He had intended to introduce an inquiry into the migration in foreign countries with this paper, but he found that the subject was too large. He had, however, looked into the matter,and if, for instance, in the case of the United States they eliminated the foreign-borneleme-it, and confined themselvesto the native-born Americans, theywould findthat they too moved about fromplace to place as in the case of England; that some States overflowed, whilstotherswere being inundated; that people moved by degrees to the west, and that the natives of the outlyingparts of New York State flowed into New York city countiesmoved into London. just as the people of the metropolitan He had hesitatedbeforehe made use of the term " law," and merely did so because he could find no other term. All he meant to convey was that migration went on according to certain rules. that these laws They spoke of laws of population,notwithstanding with at any moment, might be interfered and, as Mr. Bourne had countries. with in different shown, were really being interfered A cordial vote of thanks was accorded to Mr. Ravenstein, and the proceedingsterminated.