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ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (11.1) (1.0) (26.1) 4QFY12 619 478 149 % chg (yoy) (8.9) 6.9 (79.1)
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
United Bank reported subdued set of numbers for the quarter, as its operating profit grew by 6.9% yoy. The bank witnessed higher asset quality pressures during the quarter, which resulted in 147.4% yoy increase in the provisioning expenses and it reported PBT level loss of `268cr as compared to PBT level earnings of `171cr in 4QFY2012. However, aided by tax write-backs of `279cr during the quarter, as compared to tax expenses of `22cr during 4QFY2012, the bottom-line came in positive at `31cr, thereby registering a decline of 79.1% yoy. NIMs stable qoq; Slippages spike to 6.7%: During 4QFY2013, the bank witnessed moderate growth in its business, as its advances and deposits grew by 9.3% and 12.9% yoy respectively. Loan growth was largely aided by higher growth in Retail and MSME advances (22.9% yoy and 21.5% yoy, respectively). Current deposits degrew by 2.1% yoy, while growth in savings deposits came in moderate at 14.2% yoy. CASA ratio dipped 112bp yoy to 39.6%. Reported NIMs for the bank remained stable sequentially at 2.7%. Non-interest income grew by 47.6% yoy, largely aided by higher treasury gains which almost tripled on a yoy basis. On the asset quality front, slippages came in much higher sequentially at `1,057cr (annualized slippage ratio at 6.7%) compared to `680cr in 3QFY2013 (annualized slippage ratio at 4.3%). Recoveries during the quarter remained stable sequentially at `130cr. Gross and net NPA levels, on an absolute basis, were higher sequentially by 2.1% and 39.1%, respectively. Gross NPA ratio decreased by 17bp sequentially to 4.3%, while the net NPA ratio increased by 65bp to 2.9%. The banks PCR dipped sequentially by 475bp to 62.5% (lower by 665bp yoy). Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `888cr during the quarter (higher than `629cr in 3QFY2013), thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `4,555cr (6.6% of loan book). Outlook and valuation: The bank has witnessed higher asset quality pressures over the last few quarters, as slippages and incremental restructuring came in at elevated levels. Going ahead, we remain watchful of the banks performance on the asset quality front, particularly incremental slippages/restructuring and recoveries/upgrades. The bank is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 0.4x FY2015E ABV (one of the lowest in the industry). Most of the banks peers are trading at 0.6x-0.7x FY2015E ABV, in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. Hence, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `65.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 81.6 6.2 0.8 11.4
3m 4.2 (14.0)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
FY2012 2,479 14.3 546 19.4 2.7 15.1 3.8 0.5 0.7 14.2
FY2013 2,487 0.3 313 (42.7) 2.4 8.3 7.0 0.6 0.4 7.3
FY2014E 2,727 9.6 564 80.4 2.3 15.1 3.9 0.5 0.5 12.1
FY2015E 3,237 18.7 766 35.8 2.6 20.4 2.8 0.4 0.6 14.8
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Akshay Narang
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6829 akshay.narang@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 2,336 1,719 581 14 23 1,772 564 351 177 48 174 25 105 915 404 243 162 511 759 339 420 (248) (279) 31 112.6
3QFY13 2,341 1,699 611 31 0 1,707 634 258 145 47 114 26 71 892 377 239 137 516 450 314 136 66 24 42 35.8
% chg (qoq) (0.2) 1.2 (5.0) (53.7) 20,427.3 3.8 (11.1) 35.9 22.5 1.1 53.0 (6.8) 47.4 2.5 7.3 1.4 17.6 (1.0) 68.6 7.9 208.8 (26.1) 7674bp
4QFY12 2,132 1,606 491 7 29 1,513 619 238 180 48 58 131 857 379 234 146 478 307 342 1 171 22 149 12.8
% chg (yoy) 9.6 7.0 18.4 105.2 (21.8) 17.1 (8.9) 47.6 (1.2) (0.9) 198.3 (20.0) 6.8 6.6 3.8 11.0 6.9 147.4 (0.8) 29,479.6 (79.1) 9978bp
FY2013 9,251 6,899 2,259 63 29 6,764 2,487 1,067 599 195 467 107 297 3,554 1,504 933 571 2,050 1,759 1,011 748 291 (101) 392 (34.9)
FY2012 7,961 6,034 1,878 16 34 5,482 2,479 733 515 183 218 28 304 3,212 1,383 891 492 1,829 983 690 294 845 213 633 25.2
% chg (yoy) 16.2 14.3 20.3 308.6 (12.3) 23.4 0.3 45.5 16.3 6.6 114.8 14.3 (2.4) 10.6 8.7 4.6 16.1 12.1 78.9 46.5 155.0 (65.6) (38.0) (6007)bp
% chg (14.7) 51.3 2.4 (3.6) 7.8 145.7 (250.2) (653.5) (72.8)
4QFY13 68,909 100,652 68.5 9,533 30,372 39,905 39.6 11.7 8.4 7.1 11.3 2.7 44.2 2,964 4.3 1,970 2.9 62.5 6.7 1.2
3QFY13 64,427 92,086 70.0 7,822 28,997 36,819 40.0 11.9 8.5 7.0 11.3 2.7 42.2 2,902 4.4 1,416 2.2 67.3 4.3 1.2
%chg (qoq) 7.0 9.3 (150)bp 21.9 4.7 8.4 (34)bp (22)bp (9)bp 10bp 5bp (1)bp 196bp 2.1 (17)bp 39.1 65bp (475)bp 239bp 4bp
4QFY12 63,043 89,116 70.7 9,741 26,589 36,330 40.8 12.7 8.8 6.7 11.2 3.1 44.2 2,176 3.4 1,076 1.7 69.2 4.4 1.4
%chg (yoy) 9.3 12.9 (228)bp (2.1) 14.2 9.8 (112)bp (103)bp (39)bp 40bp 16bp (44)bp (7)bp 36.2 84bp 83.2 115bp (665)bp 230bp (16)bp
CASA yoy growth (%, RHS) 19.7 25.0 20.0 11.8 9.8
39.6
15.0 10.0
70.1
70.0
68.0 66.0
16.9
66.1
40.0
40.8 40.5 40.2
17.8 14.5
19.4 16.3
13.1 18.7
10.1 11.2
9.3 12.9
5.0 -
40.0
5.0 -
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
69.3 69.2
69.2
1.2
1.4
1.2 1.0 0.8
67.3
62.5
0.9 0.5
4.4 2.9 4.3
1.9 6.7
3.0 2.0 1.0 40.0 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 4QFY12
3.4 1.7 3.5 1.8 3.9 2.0 4.4 2.2 4.3 2.9
1.0 -
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
44.0 42.0
40.0
1.5
30.2
24.5
22.9
30.0 20.0
10.0 -
1.4
43.7 42.2 44.2
44.2
39.2
38.0 36.0
1.3 1.2
(10.0)
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
Investment arguments
Structurally stronger CASA than peers
UTDBK has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratio during FY200513 has been 41.2%. Even during 4QFY2013, the bank had maintained a strong CASA ratio of 39.6%, which is the highest among its peers, which consists of banks like UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and Syndicate Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less volatile, accounted for 30.2% of the total deposits, while current deposits accounted for 9.5%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a large retail customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of the total branch network of ~1,730 branches, 80% is concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions. Moreover, 58% of UTDBKs branches are located in rural and semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.
Investment concerns
Lower other income compared to peers
Over FY2011-13, the bank other income excluding treasury grew at a CAGR of 16.9% yoy, at a higher pace than its loan book CAGR of 13.5% over the same period. On account of the decent growth witnessed, other income (excluding treasury) as a percentage of average assets, grew from 0.5% as of FY2011 to 0.6% as of FY2013, however, it still remain on the lower side compared to peers.
Earlier estimates FY2014E 15.0 10.0 43.4 2.6 (24.6) 15.0 12.5 2.4 72.5 15.0 11.0 44.1 2.7 4.5 10.0 10.0 2.2 75.0
Revised estimates 15.0 9.0 40.0 2.3 (32.8) 15.0 10.0 2.3 66.0 15.0 9.0 41.4 2.6 6.2 10.0 10.0 2.0 70.0
FY2015E Var. (%) (5.4) 0.3 (4.3) (1.8) (6.5) 2.7 (14.1) (31.7) (5.0) Earlier Revised estimates estimates 3,262 746 4,008 1,906 2,102 799 1,303 443 860 3,237 761 3,998 1,871 2,127 847 1,280 435 845 Var. (%) (0.7) 2.0 (0.2) (1.8) 1.2 6.0 (1.7) (1.7) (1.7)
Earlier Revised estimates estimates 2,883 714 3,597 1,733 1,864 839 1,026 349 677 2,727 717 3,443 1,701 1,742 861 881 238 643
0.5x
0.65x
0.8x
0.95x
1.1x
Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
United Bank of India is a mid-sized public sector bank, with operations mostly concentrated in the eastern and northeastern states of India (80%). These states have contributed to the bank's high CASA deposits, though low credit demand especially in the northeast has prompted the bank to so far rely more on large corporate loans, including in consortium.
68,180 77,845
26,068 26,259 42,330 53,502 19.6 651 1,578 24.1 26.4 819 2,133 16.9
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
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