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Rajeev Srinivasan
April 08, 2009
The concept of triage first arose in field hospitals, where doctors had to
decide what to do with large numbers of war wounded and very limited
resources. Over time, they developed an empirical method of optimisation,
by dividing up incoming patients into three groups: Those who were hopeless,
those who could wait for attention, and those who could only be saved if
they got immediate care.
The medical staff would pursue appropriate methods with each of these
groups. The hopeless cases they would give painkillers to, make them
comfortable, and let them die in peace. Those who were lightly wounded
they would give first aid to and prepare them for further care, not
immediately, but as soon as feasible. The last group, for whom emergency
surgery could mean the difference between life and death, they would
prioritise and operate on immediately.
The mistake that the BJP made in 2004 -- and presumably will not repeat in
2009 -- is to ignore this rather universal principle. Thus, there exists one group of
people who fundamentally agree with the BJP, one group who will never vote
for them, and then there is the prize: The fence-sitters, who are liable to be
convinced by rational argument or appeals to sentiment.
Naturally, there is a proper approach to each of these groups. The first, your
natural constituency, should be kept happy with rhetoric and substance that
appeals to them -- you surely do not want to lose your allies. The second you
should simply ignore, and give them up for lost. The third, the undecided, that
is where you should use the full force of your resources, to convince them to
vote for you.
In 2004, the BJP, for reasons best known to itself, ended up doing things that
simply didn't work. They alienated their friends through distancing itself from
their agendas. They attempted to pander to their staunch enemies, with
foreseeable results, and ended up looking foolish, and further alienated their
friends. As far as the undecided were concerned, they did try -- they came
up with the relatively truthful 'India Shining' slogan but were surprised when the
staunchly anti-BJP media trashed it.
In other words, their efforts and good work went in the wrong direction. It
remains to be seen whether the lessons from this failure have been fully
internalised. The fact of the matter is that there are certain groups in India
that have a knee-jerk antipathy towards the BJP. This is either rational (in the
case of some entities which are part and parcel of imperial cults seeking
world conquest) or the result of brainwashing (in the case of innumerate
social sciences types who have been fed a steady diet of disinformation
throughout school and college).
As for other incorrigible enemies, such as media people with ideological rigor
mortis, it appears as though the BJP is not actively pandering to them as they
did in 2004. The fact is that the media is easily swayed through certain carrots,
and especially, certain sticks. A few discreet prods in sensitive spots will easily
bring the media back into line, once the BJP gets into power. The ELM will
crawl, grovel, do somersaults, sit up and beg like a trained dog -- all that is
required is the application of a little judicious pain to their bottoms.
Secondly, there are certain groups that seek guidance from outside, from
their handlers in various foreign countries. They may smile fetchingly and coo
sweet nothings in the BJP's ear, but it must steel itself against sweet talk,
because all this conceals -- to mix metaphors wildly -- an iron fist inside the
velvet glove. They have vested interests diametrically opposed to India's
national interests.
The BJP should not trust their honeyed words, and certainly should not
promote their interests, however nice their siren songs, over those of its friends.
This has been a failing on the part of the BJP before -- susceptibility to flattery,
an unfortunate and common Indian fault.
The BJP has to treat its friends better. Its core constituency will never vote for
the others, but they will be dispirited and demoralised if the BJP does not take
care of their needs. Given the demographics and the proliferation of single-
agenda, personality-cult regional parties, perhaps this core constituency
alone cannot bring the BJP to power (although that is a debatable
assumption). However, their absence in the game, including their refraining
from voting, will guarantee defeat. They are necessary, but perhaps not
sufficient.
There are a few points on which the friends of the BJP feel alienated from the
party. One is the furious backpedaling on Hindu issues. There are several
emotive issues: For instance, the unfair treatment of Hindus as second-class
citizens in almost all spheres of life. An example is the downright
unparliamentary language used by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi
[Images] in reference to Sri Rama. There is a considerable feeling of hurt
religious sentiments among many Hindus. The fact that they do not riot or
cause a law-and-order problem does not mean people do not care.
Similarly there is the Ayodhya issue, the Amarnath issue, the Article 370 issue,
the murder of Swami Lakshmanandana, the increasingly bold vilification of
Hindus by various missionaries, the virulent Hindu-bashing by Communists and
the DMK, the continued diversion of funds from and pauperisation of Hindu
temples, and the feeling that the Indian state has set out to deliberately
support Christianisation -- including the covert release of coins with Christian
symbols.
The BJP counters this sentiment by saying that these are things that will cost it
support from the various splinter parties that it will need to form a government,
and that the key thing is to capture political power. They will point to how the
Congress -- let us note they only got about 10 seats more than the BJP in the
2004 election -- nevertheless were able to vault into a position of almost
dictatorial power through astutely using alliances. Let us win first, the BJP says.
They do have a point, but BJP leaders and allies must be muzzled from saying
things that unnecessarily estrange or discourage the core constituency: and
they do say these things.
And finally, the real battleground: The vast uncommitted. A few years of
increasing material wealth, as well as a burgeoning population of youth who
have come of age with no particular inferiority complex vis a vis the rest of the
world -- this has resulted in a cadre of people who have an enduring personal
interest in the well-being of India as a nation and a civilization. They are not
aspiring for foreign passports.
Many of them, who are apolitical and apathetic, can see that the changes in
the economy have come not because of, but despite, the Nehruvian
agenda. They realise that State control of the 'commanding heights of the
economy' has been a monumental disaster everywhere. They understand
that the Congress can only imagine a Stalinist, interfering State. They are not
natural allies of the Congress, and much less of the Communists.
These people also have security concerns that have been worsened by the
Congress' fecklessness. The invasion of Mumbai [Images], the virtual takeover
of most of Afghanistan and Pakistan by the Inter Services Intelligence and its
friends the Taliban [Images], the overthrow of the Hindu kingdom of Nepal
and its annexation by forces friendly to China and Pakistan, the failed State of
Pakistan, the military coup that almost overthrew the new government in
Bangladesh, the ongoing end-game in Sri Lanka [Images] -- all this
demonstrates that the situation in India's near-abroad is getting to be
catastrophic.
Furthermore, the evidence suggests that India's internal security issues are
grave. There are clearly sleeper cells that are providing succour and
sustenance to enemies of the state. They strike at random civilian targets, their
blood-lust spent on innocent bystanders. No big city -- Mumbai, Bangalore,
Delhi [Images], Hyderabad, Ahmedabad [Images] -- is safe for ordinary
citizens. The average person can see that a lot of this has come about
because of the implicit abdication of its responsibility by the Congress,
including the emasculation of anti-terrorist laws. Terrorists trained in Kerala
[Images], for instance, have been found attacking Indian security forces in
Jammu & Kashmir.
Given the bleak economic climate, the security issues and the general anti-
incumbency sentiment, it should be possible for the BJP to appeal to the large
class of undecided and new voters. Besides, many of them are probably not
averse to the appeal of cultural nationalism. It is an observed fact that
affluence brings about a certain pride in one's roots and background and
civilisation.
Thus, by wasting no energy on the naysayers, ensuring that the faithful do not
stray, and spending more of their efforts on the undecided, the BJP should be
able to successfully work a triage strategy and ride it to power in 2009.