Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 104

Future Fuels for the APEC Region

An Integrated Technology Roadmap September 2005 Compiled by David E. Minns 1

Foreword

This Technology Roadmap (TRM) is Phase 2 of the APEC Project “Foresighting Future Fuel Technology”. Two Workshops were held to solicit input from APEC economies to develop the Roadmap. The first workshop was held in Vancouver, Canada in April 2005 and the second in Kenting, Chinese Taipei in August 2005.

The TRM is an overview document where every effort has been made to make it technically and factually sound through engaging experts from throughout the APEC region. This, of necessity, means that some of the discussion is quite technical in nature. It is not, however, intended to be a technical document aimed at the technical community. Rather it attempts to inform policy makers of technical opportunities and issues. There was local industry participation in both the Vancouver and Kenting Workshops. In addition, many of the APEC Economies participating in this study have conducted detailed roadmaps of their own in which industry was, in some case, an active participant. Through this means, this Roadmap has attempted to reflect the industry perspective to a limited degree.

The APEC Project is a collaborative initiative between the APEC Energy Working Group and the APEC Industrial Science and Technology Working Group. It is coordinated jointly by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight in Thailand and the Office of the National Science Advisor in Canada and sponsored by Canada, Chinese Taipei and Thailand supplemented by APEC central funds.

The TRM explores future fuel options by focusing on three future fuel options and exploring their interaction over the time period 2005-2030:

Unconventional hydrocarbons

Biofuels

Hydrogen

The TRM focuses principally on supply-side technologies (well-to-tank) rather than demand-side technologies. It is recognized that demand could be influenced by changes in consumer attitudes, higher oil prices and the increased energy efficiency of energy converters such as internal combustion engines – but these aspects are not discussed here. Rather, the TRM examines technology development pathways to provide viable supply options to meet demand no matter how this evolves.

However, well-to-tank energy efficiency features as part of the TRM. Conserving primary energy and delivering as large a fraction of it to the user as possible becomes of increasing importance as energy sources become limited. It is of critical importance for maximizing the contribution that can be made by renewable energy.

Electricity is a well-developed energy carrier for both stationary and transportation applications with an existing infrastructure and could represent serious competition for the potential role described for hydrogen. However, since the focus of this TRM is on fuel, that is, on a substance that releases its energy through some form of chemical transformation, the potential for electricity is not examined.

1 Can be contacted at, dminns@rogers.com

1

1

1

The study focuses in the region represented by the APEC economies. Although a projection of the expected aggregate demand for the APEC region can be made, it is recognized that individual economies will be establishing their own individual energy supply plans depending on specific local threats, available options and local economics.

This TRM is therefore designed to present a menu of options and their implications and interactions as a resource for individual economies. There are some initiatives that can be advanced through collaboration between APEC economies and these have been highlighted.

Acknowledgements

Specific acknowledgements for technical inputs are given for each of the Roadmaps reported in the Appendices. However, this TRM could not have been produced without the guiding hand of Geoff Nimmo of Industry Canada. Geoff’s leadership of this Phase of the APEC Project drawing on his extensive experience in technology roadmapping has been pivotal in producing the report presented here. I also want to personally thank Gloria Fu for going beyond the call of duty to apply here analytical skills to ensure my thinking did not contravene the natural laws.

1. Vision: Integrated Roadmap of Future Fuels Technology

The APEC Project “Foresighting Future Fuel Technology” has as its vision the ultimate achievement of a renewable energy based economy. The Project is aimed at examining the technology development steps required to achieve this long-term vision.

Phase 1 of this Project was a “Scenario 2030” experts workshop designed to develop descriptions of possible futures derived from an examination of the key drivers of future fuels technology development using a classification called STEEP – social, technological, economic, environmental and political. Emerging from “Scenario 2030” was a common agreement that the Vision of Phase 2 – the Integrated Technology Roadmap – should be:

“A Secure and Sustainable Fuel Supply for the APEC Region”

Where “secure” means a greater:

diversification of sources of energy supply;

emphasis on trading of energy supplies from within the APEC region and;

emphasis on renewable energy supplies particularly from domestic sources;

And “Sustainable” implies operations where:

waste emissions are within the acceptable tolerance of ecosystems and meet public health

requirements, socioeconomic objectives - such as job growth, poverty reduction and preservation of rural

communities - are considered, other non-energy resources such as metals, fresh water and biodiversity are preserved,

Making strides to achieving this Roadmap vision will be a key contribution and milestone in establishing the renewable energy based economy desirable in the longer term.

This Vision was confirmed by a detailed analytical study conducted by Dr. Nathasit during the Vancouver Workshop (see Addendum 1).

2

2

2

2. APEC Energy Supply Outlook and Production Goals

This section draws heavily on presentations made at the Kenting Workshop by Dr. Jung, Dr. Bloyd and Dr. Natusch of the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre and Dr Tsau of Chinese Taipei and member of the APEC Energy Working Group.

Future world energy demand is estimated to be ~ 14,800 Mtoe by 2030 (see Figure 2.1). Energy demand for the APEC region is approximately 70% of the world demand thus will reach approximately 10,500 Mtoe by 2030 rising from approximately 5050 Mtoe in 2005. Figure 2.1: World Primary Energy Demand to 2030

in 2005. Figure 2.1: World Primary Energy Demand to 2030 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook Jan.

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook Jan. 20

Hydrocarbons are forecast to contribute more than 80% of the primary sources utilized to meet this demand through to 2030.

The energy supply is currently dominated by conventional crude oil and natural gas production. As this production peaks and oil and gas prices rise, it is expected that the deficit between supply and demand will be filled largely by the development of unconventional (synthetic) hydrocarbons and, to a lesser extent, increased use of renewable (i.e., sources based directly or indirectly on solar energy – includes PV, biomass, wind, hydro) and alternate energy sources (e.g., nuclear, geothermal, tidal).

Since all economies integrate their energy supply to minimize costs and optimize the use of the production and distribution infrastructure, there will not be a single energy mix that is applicable APEC-wide. Each APEC economy will have a different optimum approach depending on the costs of alternatives available to it and its individual strategy for a secure and sustainable energy supply within its own socioeconomic context.

3

3

3

Currently, liquid hydrocarbon fuels (gasoline and diesel) dominate the transportation sector and rely on oil as the feedstock. Attempts are being made to use gaseous fuels (natural gas, propane, hydrogen) as well as electricity because of their environmental advantages – but these fuels have yet to match the functional performance and cost advantages in storage and distribution enjoyed by liquids. Liquid biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) are just starting to penetrate the transportation market since they can be blended readily with hydrocarbon fuels and use existing engine technologies provided the blend proportion is limited to less than ~20%. Since the carbon in biofuels derives from the natural carbon-cycle, use of biofuels has the potential to decarbonize 2 the liquid hydrocarbon fuel in which it is blended – thus reducing the global warming potential. The production of biofuels also has many socioeconomic benefits. All other primary sources of energy in use today, as well as oil, supply the stationary energy sector (electricity production and industrial, commercial and residential applications). This includes natural gas, nuclear, hydro, and renewable energy.

The APEC Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook (2000-2020) produced by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre shown in Table 2.1 indicates that the electricity and transportation sectors will grow at the fastest rate through to 2020.

Table 2.1: APEC Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook (2000-2020)

   

Absolute Level (Unit:Mtoe)

 

Annual Average Growth

 

1999-

2010-

1999-

1999

2005

2010

2015

2020

2010

2020

2020

Electricity

635.1

762.2

899.9

1050.3

1218.8

3.2%

3.1%

3.2%

Industry

1325

1545

1730.9

1932.3

2152.7

2.5%

2.2%

2.3%

Transport

1035.6

1216

1401.1

1606

1823.9

2.8%

2.7%

2.7%

Commercial

359.3

408.8

459.7

516.2

597.5

2.3%

2.7%

2.5%

Residential

912.3

976

1041.8

117.6

1209.5

1.2%

1.5%

1.4%

Other

127.8

141

153.4

166.8

182

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

Source: APERC (2002) “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2002”

It is noteworthy that currently biofuel is the only renewable energy source that can be used conveniently in the transportation sector. All others, as well the alternate energy sources, are more useful for stationary applications primarily to produce electricity. The widespread introduction of electric or hydrogen powered vehicles would broaden the direct application of renewable and alternate energy sources to the transportation sector. Furthermore, the use of renewable and alternative energy sources in the electricity sector can relieve oil for transportation use.

3. Production Goals

2 Retaining this benefit requires that there is no significant use of fossil fuels to grow, harvest, process and distribute the biofuels. Use of waste biomass as a feedstock has a significant advantage over the intensive agricultural production of biomass energy crops in this regard.

4

4

4

The technology development pathways described in this Integrated Future Fuels Roadmap are intended to maximize the flexibility and options available to energy supply strategists of individual APEC economies for meeting their future domestic energy demand. For the reasons described above three areas for future fuels development have been singled out because of their potential for playing a significant role in meeting the need.

3.1. Unconventional Hydrocarbons

There are significant sources of unconventional hydrocarbons available as a potential feedstock to synthesize oil and gas to meet this demand deficit left by the decline of conventional oil and gas production. Significant examples are

Not including hydrocarbons in oil shale, it is estimated that there are 8-9 trillion barrels of heavy oil and bitumen in place worldwide, of which potentially 900 billion barrels of oil are commercially exploitable with today’s technology. This represents a supply of over twice as much heavy oil and bitumen than it does conventional oil. There are still large reserves of natural gas that are isolated from distribution pipelines and are not currently exploited. These can be tapped through the use of LNG or gas-to-liquid (GTL) conversion based on the well established Fischer-Tropsch technology. Application of either or both of these technologies would also enable natural gas to be shipped between continents. Coal deposits are widespread in many APEC economies including China, United States, Australia and Canada. Coal is mostly used for electricity production but new unconventional uses would see coal cleaned and used as a feedstock for synthesizing oil and gas. Methane found in coal deposits is widespread. Gas hydrate deposits may account for approximately twice that of all other hydrocarbon resources combined and 100 times that of conventional gas resources

It should be noted that the supply chains to access many of these unconventional hydrocarbon sources will consume much energy and this should be borne in mind when comparing the performance with other products such as biofuels and hydrogen.

3.2. Renewable Energy - Biofuels

No specific goal for biofuels production has been established for the overall APEC region. Examples of goals established by some APEC economies and some other countries (included for comparison purposes) are:

For Bioethanol:

APEC Economy/Country

Feedstock

Current Status/target

Australia

Grain, sugarcane

350 ML/a by 2010

Brazil

Sugarcane

E25

Canada

Grain

200 ML/a 0.1 ML/a E1, target E5 by 2007

Cellulosic waste

Ontario (corn)

Japan

Import from Brazil

E3

Thailand

Molasses, cassava

E10 > 100 filling stations Target: 3 ML/a in 2011

USA (illustrative, not complete)

Corn

Minnesota: E10 target E20 by 2012 ND: E10 OR: E10 by 2010 Idaho: E85 at 1 filling station Target 19 billion L in 2012

5

5

5

For Biodiesel:

APEC Economy/

Feedstock

Fuel Specification

Current Status/Target

Region

EU

Rape

EN 14214

2 billion L, 1700 filling stations

USA (illustrative, not complete)

Soya, WCO 3

ASTM 6751

B2-B20 (US Energy Bill) 15 states, 123 filling stations

Canada

Canola, Soya WCO and yellow grease

CGSB 3.520

B1-B5

Target 500 ML by 2010 1 filling station

Japan

WCO

n.a

Target: 50 – 100 ML in 2007

Thailand

Palm Oil, WCO

Drafting (EN & ASTM)

Target B5 in 2006, 8.5 ML/D (B10) in

 

2012

If one uses targets published by the USA 4 as a guide:

Biopower Target (heat and electricity) to meet ~ 5% of total industrial and electric generator capacity by 2030. Biobased transportation fuels Target to meet 20% of transportation needs by 2030.

This in effect is a ~40 fold increase in the use of biofuels from current levels by the year 2030 and could be considered as the APEC goal for this Biofuels Roadmap.

Such a target is unlikely to be met using biomass waste alone as a feedstock but will require cultivation of dedicated bioenergy crops.

3.3. Hydrogen

Hydrogen is an energy carrier not a primary energy source. It is present in abundance bound chemically in water and in hydrocarbons and biomass. Hydrogen is clean in its end-use application but its overall environmental performance depends very much on its source and the means used to extract and distribute it.

IEA countries are developing plans for a transition to low carbon economies by 2050 (shares of coal/ oil & gas / renewables: 5% / 35% / 60%, and hydrogen accounting for 50% of the final energy consumption); the world overall is projected to complete a similar transition by 2100, with the global CO2 emission down to the 1990 levels.

Currently, there is more than 50 million tons of hydrogen produced per year globally but less than 5% (2.5 million tons) of these are merchant hydrogen, i.e. traded as a commodity (Reference?).

Given the expected energy demand described earlier for the APEC region of 14,000 Mtoe by 2050, if the same goal was set as that of the IEA, this would require the production and distribution of ~ 225 million tons of hydrogen by 2050. This is a ~ 100 fold increase from today’s levels.

3 WCO = Waste Cooking Oil.

4 Roadmap of Biomass Technologies: US and Australia.

6

6

6

To achieve this level by 2050 one would expect that production levels of hydrogen would have to have reached at least 50 million tons by 2030. This represents at least a 25-fold increase over today’s figures.

Given, also, that hydrocarbons will still represent more than 90% of the primary sources utilized to meet the energy demand, reforming technologies combined with carbon sequestration would be expected to form the primary hydrogen conversion pathway to meet such a goal.

4. Scope, Methodology and Assumptions

The general methodology adopted in Vancouver was to use the Roadmapping approach described by Geoff Nimmo and shown schematically in Figure 4.1.

WHO WHAT/HOW WHY Industry -led Initiative Anticipated Benefits Phase I Facilitated by: • Identified market
WHO
WHAT/HOW
WHY
Industry -led Initiative
Anticipated Benefits
Phase I
Facilitated by:
• Identified market
Periodic iteration
Industry Canada
demands
Potential Facilitators:
• Identified critical
Other Departments,
technologies
Feasibility
Resources
Analysis
Research
Organizations,
• Targeted R&D
Associations or
investment
Consultants
• Reduced market and
investment risk
Phase II
• Partnerships
Suppliers
Actions to develop, commercialize
and transfer technology
• Enhanced
competitiveness
Manufacturers
• Influence on
End Users
government policy,
programs and
regulations
Phase III
• Innovation
Academia
• Improved knowledge
Periodic evaluation, re-thinking,
and Research
and cultural adoption
Organizations
• Productivity Growth

Figure 4.1: Canadian Model: Three Phases of a Roadmap

Three Working Groups were established to develop the Roadmap, one each for:

Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Biofuels

Hydrogen

Each Working Group comprised experts in the drawn from as many APEC economies as possible and was tasked to explore a path of technology development from today to the future vision by:

1. Considering Trends and Drivers identified as affecting the Vision and Goals

2. Identifying Technology Barriers. (Barriers are knowledge gaps. For each technology area these are the scientific, technical, skills and possibly regulatory issues that could prevent the strategic goals being achieved)

3. Identifying the Priority Technologies from the Alternatives (according to their ability to overcome the barriers and meet the strategic goals and place them in short, medium and long term time frames).

7

7

7

This means selecting approximately the top 3 or 4 technology alternatives from the many options that will be generated.

The time lines will reflect the time frame for market introduction. Mature market penetration may take several decades after this depending on factors such as the rate of stock turnover.

Prioritization Criteria were given as:

Timeline – Short (now-5 years), Medium (10-20 years), Long (20-30 years) Stage of development – Basic R&D, Applied R&D and Product Development, Engineering Testing and Codes & Standards, Technical Demonstration, Product Demonstration and First Purchases, Production and Sales Cost sharing model – Public Private Partnership, Government to Government, Industry to Industry, Academia to Academia, Others Lead stakeholder – Government, Industry, Academia (or subset thereof)

4. Identifying Resources to aid in implementation: R&D; Partnerships/Collaboration; Infrastructure (e.g., transportation); Standards; Policy Instruments; Societal Initiatives.

Specific strategies and other assumptions made by individual are noted in the detailed findings of these Working Groups attached as Appendices.

5. Integrated Technology Roadmap

This section draws on the detailed findings of the three Working Groups and highlights the conclusions that can be drawn about the integration of the three individual roadmaps. Since hydrocarbons will continue to play a dominant role for the period of this roadmap, integration is built around this energy resource as the key driver with which biofuels and hydrogen must interact.

The integration of fuel and energy supply is inevitable in order to make maximum use of the investment in extraction, production, and distribution infrastructure while meeting the needs for overall energy security, good public health and sustainable development.

Fuels for transportation application have a much more demanding functionality than those required for stationary uses. Because of the need to have sufficient on-board fuel supply while keeping the payload down, liquid fuels (gasoline and diesel) derived from the refining of oil dominate the transportation market.

By contrast, stationary applications primarily for the production of electricity and of heat for commercial, industrial and residential application, are much more forgiving and can utilize a wide range of fuels including coal and renewable and alternate energy sources such as nuclear, wind and PV solar not directly useable for transportation. APEC region energy use by the stationary sectors is also more than three times greater than that for transportation (currently: 3883 Mtoe/annum compared to usage for transportation of 1216 Mtoe/annum).

Besides using some of the Future Fuels (bitumen, biofuels) directly for transportation applications within the current liquid infrastructure, the opportunity also exists to introduce other Future Fuels in stationary applications both to accommodate the increase in demand but also to help release those primary energy sources suitable for producing transportation fuels, principally oil and biomass, currently used in stationary applications.

8

8

8

This dynamic is shown schematically in Figure 5.1. The diagram is complex – and it should not be read as meaning that fuels that enter the market later totally displace those that come before – rather that they become part of the available fuel mix – and the market share is then dictated by availability, functionality and cost.

Note also, from Figure 5.1, a trend to the greening of the fuel supply. There are two drivers here.

The first is the decarbonisation of the overall fuel mix to mitigate climate change.

Advances in achieving this objective can be made much more readily for fuels for stationary applications than those for transportation. Hydrocarbon gases have much lower carbon content per unit energy than hydrocarbon liquid fuels and coal hence one might expect a fairly rapid advancement of the ‘gasification’ of the fuel supply for stationary applications along with a much greater use of ‘zero- carbon’ fuels from renewable and alternate primary sources.

Decarbonisation of liquid transportation fuels can also be accomplished by blending them with ‘zero- carbon’ biofuels or other fuels derived from hydrocarbon sources such as methanol. Current engine technology would limit these blends to no more than 20%.

This combination of strategies may well enable the climate change mitigation targets to be accomplished without having to move to gaseous transportation fuels.

Figure 5.1: Integration of Future Fuel Supply

9

9

9

(NB: Time lines suggest market entry, Market penetration will then depend on such factors as availability, functionality, price and the rate of turnover of stock which can take several decades.)

2020 2005 2010 2030 LIQUID FUELS (conventional oil bitumen and heavy oil) GAS FUELS Biofuels
2020
2005
2010
2030
LIQUID FUELS (conventional oil
bitumen and heavy oil)
GAS FUELS
Biofuels
GTL
CG
Hydrogen
OIL
NG
BIOMASS
Electricity
And
Electricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuels
Heat
LNG
Coal
Gasification
Coal bed methane
Gas Hydrates
Renewable and Alternate
Stationary
Transportation
10

10

10

The second is the need to improve urban air quality for public health reasons.

Emissions leading to poor urban air quality come principally from the transportation sector. Where there is sufficient imperative, a shift to cleaner gaseous fuels and the construction of the necessary associated infrastructure will occur to try to mitigate this problem. Natural gas is already being introduced in some of the larger Asian cities motivated by this concern.

Hydrogen is the ultimate clean fuel for improving urban air quality producing only water as a ‘waste’ at its point of use. It also provides a currency for linking non-transportation fuels (coal, nuclear, solar, wind) to transportation applications via electricity production and electrolysis thus introducing greater versatility and flexibility for overall energy management. Development of technologies to provide economical ways to distribute, store and use hydrogen are under intensive investigation but have not yet been established so this option is still years probably decades away from realisation.

However, improving urban air quality does not fall solely with the choice of fuel. There is still significant margin to improve the fuel efficiency of ICEs as is shown in Table 5.1.

Figure 5.1: Percentage reduction in technical fuel consumption per km

compared to gasoline vehicle in 2000.ion in technical fuel consumption per km cto

 

2000

2030

Base gasoline vehicle

0

 

Base diesel vehicle

-18

 

Gasoline hybrid

-25

-46

Advanced gasoline vehicle

 

-28

Advanced diesel vehicle

 

-41

Diesel hybrid

 

-51

Hydrogen fuel cell

 

-61

Source: Gunasekera (2005), “The impact of high oil prices on trade in the APEC region”, a paper presented at the APEC EWG EMM7 Steering Committee Meeting

If such advances are realised, liquid fuels for transportation may continue to dominate well beyond the period of this study.

At what point management of urban air quality will result in a major shift to gaseous transportation fuels and further at what point hydrogen will displace natural gas as the gaseous fuel of choice will vary from economy to economy and may depend on non-technology factors such as the need to diversify the energy mix and reduce the dependency on imported oil for reasons of energy security. APEC economies differ significantly on their dependence on imported oil and vulnerability to the world price of oil as shown in Table 5.2 so some may be more motivated to advance the hydrogen agenda relative to others.

11

11

11

Table 5.2: Net Oil Import Dependency in Asia (2002 and 2020)

 

2002

2020

China

32%

69%

Indonesia

-11%

58%

Japan

101%

100%

Korea

100%

100%

Malaysia

-50%

37%

Philippines

98%

97%

Thailand

75%

95%

Viet Nam

-74%

6%

Note: Net Oil Import Dependency = (Oil Import - Oil Export)/Total Primary Demand of Oil

Source: History: IEA (2004), “Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries”, Projection: APERC (2002), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook

Thus, although, the general trends shown in Figure 1 to capture these dynamics may prevail, the sequencing and fuel priority will vary from economy to economy, some pushing forward to the ‘hydrogen’ economy others emphasizing greater use of biofuels and electricity from renewable sources. Others still will maintain a liquid fuel transportation infrastructure for some considerable time resolving urban air quality problems through advances in engine efficiency.

The fuel mix and supply infrastructure will evolve over time to accommodate these various priorities in the most cost effective way. The overall dominant fuel feedstock will continue to be conventional hydrocarbons in the time period to 2030, however much groundwork will have to be done during this period to develop viable fuel alternatives to meet future demand as conventional oil supplies peak and start to decline.

Technology development trends for each of the Future Fuels being investigated in this study to accommodate this integration of a diverse fuel mix, while developing fuels with suitable characteristics and functionality to utilize existing fuel infrastructure to the maximum, are discussed below.

5.1. Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Given the continuing dominance of hydrocarbons in the fuel mix, unconventional hydrocarbons will be developed to produce synthetic crude as is currently the case with bitumen and heavy oils for use with existing refining technologies and distribution systems. Ways to access stranded natural gas reserves and to accelerate intercontinental trade will be a priority. LNG is currently the preferred technology but GTL technologies may supplant this approach if LNG runs into too much public resistance. Coal will likely be gasified rather liquefied because it will be easier to sequester carbon and remove other pollutants. The gas can then be fed into the natural gas system for stationary use. The same can be said for coal-bed methane and gas hydrates.

An emerging technology will be the gas-to-liquid technologies using Fischer-Tropsch to produce synthetic crude oil from natural gas. There will also be increased interest in the production of lower-carbon, blendable liquid fuels from methane feedstock such as methanol and dimethylether (DME) but there will like be limits to the blended fraction dictated by current engine technology. These fuel technologies, however, will be in competition with liquid biofuels for opportunities in the transportation fuel sector.

12

12

12

5.2. Biofuels

Liquid biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) have a functionality which makes them very easy to blend into the existing transportation liquid fuel infrastructure. Bioethanol can be used at up to an 85% blend with suitable engine modifications. However, given their solvent and other physicochemical properties, they will likely be limited to a maximum 20% blend with gasoline or diesel with current engine technologies. If they are being used as a means of decarbonising the fuel mix, their proclaimed ‘zero-carbon’ property will need to be improved by reducing the amount of fossil fuel used in the feedstock production and biofuel production technologies. This can be done by increasing the overall energy efficiency of the supply chain and/or replacing fossil fuels used by renewable fuels wherever possible.

Biofuels can also be made for stationary applications: methane can be produced from the fermentation of biomass waste and by the pyrolysis of wood and agricultural waste; wood chips can also be burned directly for electricity production. These will continue to gain prominence as the stationary applications for fuel will bear the greater burden proportionally for GHG mitigation.

5.3. Hydrogen

Hydrogen will not likely appear as a significant fuel currency until the late 2020s or 2030. It will first appear as a niche application where it has significant advantage over other options for meeting an economy’s need for fuel security through diversification of primary energy sources to those that are not readily applicable to the transportation sector combined with a desire to improve urban air quality. Competition to meet this need will come, however, from electricity.

It would appear that hydrogen, to utilize the existing fuel infrastructure for hydrocarbon liquids and gases, will need to:

Focus more on the use of liquid fuels (particularly ethanol and methanol) as a feed to fuel cells to provide more flexible links with the dominant hydrocarbon fuels. Ethanol / methanol energy efficiency is 2x for fuel cell over the internal combustion engine (ICE) and also aligns more flexibly with biofuels. Some hydrocarbon fuels can be used as direct feed to SOFC / MCFC and via reforming for PEM. Improve the versatility and efficiency of reformer technology in the production of hydrogen:

o

For distributed hydrogen generation: to maximize hydrogen production from given hydrocarbon fuels (e.g., from gasoline or natural gas).

o

For stationary systems: can use current reformer technology to be more flexible and allow for fuel switching to match with fuel supply and optimise costs.

6. The Way Ahead

This Project was a joint undertaking of the Energy WG (EWG) and Industrial Science and Technology WG of APEC. Each of these two working groups has, as a mission, to provide support to policy development for the APEC members, in the case of EWG through analysis of energy options and forecasts and for the ISTWG supporting the framework for technological innovation. Both are key to developing successfully viable, competitive fuel options for meeting the ongoing energy demands of the APEC Region.

That this issue will continue to be at the forefront of political consideration throughout the APEC region for years to come is highlighted by the current pressures to respond sensibly to the rapid increase in oil prices currently being experienced.

The results of the APEC Project, of which this Integrated Technology Roadmap is one, though significant, part represents a first step in what is hoped to be an ongoing collaboration between the two APEC WGs to implement some of the findings.

13

13

13

These collaborations, ultimately, should result in policy analysis that will lead to significant recommendations to future APEC Ministerials.

Examples that came from the work of the Roadmap Working Groups reported in the Appendices, that could be considered through special joint studies or workshops are:

Systems Analysis of Fuel Integration options and strategies Human Resource Development Public education and awareness Codes and standards (e.g, biodiesel specification, fuel safety) Regulation ( especially related to fuel safety) Energy efficiency of the supply chain Demonstration of new technologies Assistance to economies in policy development

o

Technology Roadmapping and Foresight

o

Review of published environmental life-cycle assessments

o

Considerations for site-specific environmental assessments for new processes (e.g., bioethanol or biodiesel production plants)

o

Full cost accounting (a level playing field for evaluating fuel options by examining collectively both the internal (business) cost of production and the external societal costs (health, environment damage, etc)

14

14

14

Appendix Unconventional Hydrocarbons APEC Foresighting Future Fuel Technology

APEC Unconventional Hydrocarbons Technology Roadmap to 2030 Compiled by Dr. David Minns 5

This Technology Roadmap is one of three developed as part of an APEC Integrated Future Fuels Roadmap study which in turn is part of the APEC Project: Foresighting Future Fuels Technology. It was developed in consultation with experts in unconventional hydrocarbon technology drawn from across the APEC community at two workshops. The first was held in Vancouver Canada April 27-29, 2005 and the second at PingTung, Chinese Taipei, August 10-12, 2005.

This Unconventional Hydrocarbons Technology Roadmap should be read in conjunction with the Integrated Roadmap to which it is appended.

[Acknowledgements: This interim report draws extensively on the paper prepared for the Krabi Workshop by Dr. Kinoko Urashima of Japan for the background context for this Roadmap and on the keynote address and on the reports, discussions and conclusions of the Unconventional Hydrocarbons WG led by the keynote speaker, Dr. Tom Beer, (Australia) and documented by Mr. Ken White (Canada) and facilitated by Jack Smith. I appreciate particularly the additional work that Ken White has done to get the roadmap to its current form.]

CONTENTS

UH1. Contribution of Unconventional Hydrocarbons to the Vision

17

UH1.1. Fuel products targeted for this study

17

UH2. Assumptions 19

UH3.

Current Status 19

UH3.1. Natural Gas

 

19

UH3.1.1.

Distribution of natural-gas resources

19

UH3.1.2.

Trend in production of natural gas

20

UH3.1.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

21

UH3.1.4.

Trend for technology using natural-gas

21

UH3.1.5.

Clean Natural Gas (CNG) vehicle

22

UH3.2.

Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) technology

23

UH3.3.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technology

25

UH3.4.

Dimethyl Ether (DME)

25

UH3.5.

Methane

Hydrate

28

UH3.6.

Future R&D of natural-gas technologies

29

UH3.7.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

29

UH3.7.1.

Distribution of LPG production

29

UH3.7.2.

Trend for consumption of LPG

30

UH3.7.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of LPG

31

UH3.7.4.

Trend for technology using LPG

31

UH3.7.5.

Co-generation

32

UH3.7.6.

LPG vehicle

33

UH3.7.7.

Future R&D of LPG technologies

34

UH3.8. Coal

 

34

5 Canadian Core Team dminns@rogers.com

15

15

15

UH3.8.1.

Distribution of coal resources

34

UH3.8.2.

Trend in demand for coal

35

UH3.8.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of coal

36

UH3.8.4.

Trend for technology using clean coal

36

UH3.8.5.

Technology for the improvement in thermal efficiency

38

UH3.8.6.

Technology for environmental improvement

38

UH3.8.7.

Technology for improvement of conventional fuels

39

UH3.8.8.

for effective use of coal ashes

40

UH3.8.9.

Future R&D in coal technologies

40

UH3.9.

Non-conventional Oil

41

UH3.10.

Concluding Remarks

41

UH4. Unconventional Hydrocarbon Roadmap 42

UH4.1.

Technology

Drivers

42

UH4.2.

Technology

alternatives

43

UH4.3.

Gaps and barriers

48

UH4.4.

Recommended technologies, decision points and timelines

50

UH5.

Resources

61

UH6.

Next Steps

62

UH6.1.

What Governments Can Do

62

UH6.2.

Collaborations

63

B1. Contribution of Biofuels to the Vision

69

B1.1. Fuel products targeted for this study

69

B2. Assumptions 70

B3.

Current Status 70

B4.

Biofuel Technology Roadmap

71

B4.1.

Technology alternatives

71

B4.2.

Gaps and barriers

72

B4.3.

Recommended technologies, decision points and timelines

73

B5.

Resources

74

B6.

Next Steps

77

B6.1.

Collaborations

77

H

1.

Contribution of Hydrogen to the Vision

84

H

1.1. Fuel products targeted for this study

85

H

2. Assumptions 87

H

3.

Current Status 88

H

4.

Hydrogen Roadmap

92

H

4.1.

Key Drivers

93

H

4.2.

Technology alternatives

93

H

4.3.

Gaps and barriers

93

H

4.4.

Recommended technologies, decision points and timelines

94

H

5.

Resources

95

H

6.

Next Steps

96

H

6.1.

What Governments Can Do

96

H

6.2.

Collaborations

96

H

7.

Bibliography

96

16

16

16

UH1. Contribution of Unconventional Hydrocarbons to the Vision

Energy is not recyclable – this is a significant difference between non-renewable energy resources compared to non- renewable materials resources. Therefore, the role of non-renewable energy resources in the long run always has to be as a stepping stone to a renewable energy economy. However, within the time frame of this roadmap hydrocarbons will still represent greater than 80% of the energy resource needed to meet the demands of the APEC region. This trend will substantially remain even should hydrogen be significantly developed as an energy currency since hydrogen needs a feedstock and hydrocarbons are likely to be a major source.

The WG therefore developed three visions to embrace the hydrocarbon options.

Unconventional Gas Vision

Gas will increase market share over coal and oil over next 30 years substantially due to:

 

o

Environmental considerations

o

Lower costs

o

Availability

LNG provides an established and secure solution to gas supply that is limited by capacity and infrastructure heavily linked to investment. This capacity gap can be filled by both GTL replacing oil and gas hydrates replacing coal if technology development produces economically competitive sources of supply.

Unconventional Coal Vision

A new economy of coal where the product is liquid and gas and there are multiple products along the value chain. Coal is clean; CO2 is sequestered; and end use is a feedstock for other processes. End use is high quality diesel, low quality gasoline and a widespread use of the oil and gas distribution system. Public perception of coal shifts from dirty old fuel to new flexible multi-valued conversion products.

Unconventional Oil Vision

Integrated petrochemical feedstock with widespread substitution for light crude applications with integrated solutions for water use, CO 2 emission reductions and potential linkage with biodiesel for processing and hydrogen infrastructure for transportation and possible linkage with coal gas and nuclear for natural gas substitution. Spin off technologies possible in water, materials, carbon and bioremediation.

UH1.1. Fuel products targeted for this study

Unconventional hydrocarbons are hydrocarbons that involve heavier grades of crude oil and bitumen and innovative methods of extracting and converting coal and natural gas to higher order energy products. Unconventional hydrocarbons are sources of fossil fuels that are currently under-exploited due primarily to technology limitations that make them either very expensive or uneconomical.

Examples of unconventional hydrocarbons include:

Conventional Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Liquefied natural gas (LNG)

Compressed natural gas (CNG)

LPG (Propane, Propane-butane mix

17

17

17

Synthetic (Fischer-Tropsch) diesel

Coal bed methane

Landfill gas methane

Unconventional Unconventional Hydrocarbons

Upgraded and cleaner processed heavy oils from bitumen Cleaner (fluidized bed) Gasified or liquefied coal based fuels Natural gas from hydrates

Other Unconventional Fuels (Methane Based)

Methanol DME – dimethylether Methylal – DMM dimethoxymethane Hythane TM

Integration of Unconventional Hydrocarbons and Other Fuels

Each fuel has unique S&T opportunities and challenges, although carbon sequestration is highly relevant for each fuel. The feedstock supplies are plentiful for each fuel. These feedstocks include biomass, coal deposits, tar sands, methane and gas hydrates.

These fuels are interrelated to a degree as shown in Figure 1, which depicts a value chain showing feedstocks, processing and utilization.

Gasified coal could be used as a substitute for natural gas in tar sands production. The carbon dioxide produced from burning the coal gas could be captured and either sequestered or used to enhance oil well recovery. Hydrogen that is produced from this process could be used in both tar sands separation and to power fuel cells. The end result could be a substantially strengthened energy value chain, reduced carbon dioxide emissions, improved utilization of coal beds and greater value for natural gas usage for industrial and residential applications and as a petrochemical feedstock.

Figure 1: Value Chain for Unconventional Hydrocarbons

CO2

Sequestration

Enhanced Oil

Well Recovery

Hydrogen

Production

Tar Sands

Processing

Coal

Gasification

Coal Bed

Methane

•Coal Mines •Methane Gas Hydrates •Tar Sands •Biomass Utilization Feedstock Process Integration
•Coal Mines
•Methane Gas
Hydrates
•Tar Sands
•Biomass
Utilization
Feedstock
Process
Integration
•Hydrogen Fuel
Processing
Cells
•Crude Oil
•Biodiesel
•Ethanol
18

18

18

UH2. Assumptions

The Unconventional Hydrocarbon WG examined a broad range of current and emerging technologies over the value chain … exploration, and production, distribution and storage, usage. These were then reduced using the ‘3E’ criteria “energy security, economics, environment” and grouped into one of three categories: gas; oil; and coal.

The members of the Unconventional Hydrocarbon Working Group are listed as Attachment UH1.

Details of the Roadmap are presented in the following Sections, first by describing the background or current status of the technology as presented to the participants (Section 3) and then the findings and recommendations of priority technologies and timelines given by the experts assembled first in Vancouver, Canada and later in PingTung, Chinese Taipei.

UH3. Current Status

It is anticipated that more than 80% of the energy demand forecast for the APEC region to 2030 will need to come from sources of hydrocarbons. Unconventional hydrocarbons are likely to be increasingly required to supplement the use of conventional oil to meet this demand. Fuels from unconventional hydrocarbons encompass a variety of products and include: new fuels from NG, LNG, di-methyl ether, methanol, LPG, methane from methane hydrate, clean coal, gasified and liquefied coal, and ‘non-conventional oil’ including heavy oils and bitumen. Each has its advantages and disadvantages and each form part of this Roadmap.

What follows is a discussion of the current status of the technology taken verbatim from the paper presented by Dr. Kuniko Urashima at the Scenario 2030 workshop in Krabi with a section by Ken White on ‘non-conventional oil’ Dr. Urashima wishes wish to express appreciation to Dr. Nares Damrongchai, Prof. Jen-Shih Chang, Mr. Takao Kobayashi and Mr. Kazunari Yoshimura for various comments and discussions.

UH3.1. Natural Gas

UH3.1.1.

Distribution of natural-gas resources

The proven reserves of natural gas in the world were 156 trillion m3 in 2002 with approximately one-third in the former Soviet Union, one-third in the Middle East and the remaining third distributed elsewhere. The distribution of these resources is shown in

in the Middle East and the remaining third distributed elsewhere. The distribution of these resources is
19

19

19

Fig. 1. With approximately 65% of the petroleum being in the Middle East, regional distribution is somewhat better with natural gas than oil. Reserve production of natural gas is estimated to be 60.7 years.

production of natural gas is estimated to be 60.7 years. Fig. 1 Natural gas deposits classified

Fig. 1 Natural gas deposits classified by area (2002)

UH3.1.2.

Trend in production of natural gas

Production of natural gas in 2002 was at 2.53 trillion m3. When compared with the yearly mean growth in the production of petroleum (1.1%) and coal (0.5%) from 1990 to 2002, natural gas has shown a 2.0% rate of growth. As shown in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, approximately 30% of the world’s production is in North America and 40% is in the former Soviet Union and Europe. Production in the Middle East represents approximately 9%, which is small when considering that 36% of the world’s reserves are found there. This is the case because of the distance to the European demand area is further from the Middle East than production areas in the former Soviet Union. Enormous investment is needed for natural gas transport from the Middle East area. Moreover, the Middle East area invested in oil development rather than natural gas development. Pipelines from the Middle East to the large demand areas were not laid like those between the former Soviet Union area and Western Europe. Natural gas is consumed in the Middle East area, or exported as liquefied natural gas (LNG). In other cases it is incinerated by flaring or forced back into oil or oil gas fields when it cannot be sold.

The world’s natural-gas market is presently strengthened as a buyer’s market by production increases and planned projects in the Middle East, Europe, and Indonesia. In addition, European-American observers see a promising future for natural gas and have started tackling the guaranty issues and are looking positively on development interests. Not only petroleum interests but also oil producing countries are showing positive attitudes to development of natural gas. Furthermore, research and development is taking concrete direction in response to the new availability of natural gas through projects such as those for gas-to-liquids (GLT) and dimethyl ether (DME).

20

20

20

Fig. 2 Natural gas production percentage by area (2002) Fig. 3 Change of natural gas

Fig. 2 Natural gas production percentage by area (2002) Fig. 3 Change of natural gas
Fig. 2
Natural gas production percentage by area (2002)
Fig. 3
Change of natural gas production volume classified by area

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

Change of natural gas production volume classified by area UH3.1.3. Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

UH3.1.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of natural gas

From 1990 to 2002 the world’s natural gas demand, including power generation, has increased at a steady annual rate of 2%, except for the area of the former Soviet Union. The use of natural gas depends on the economical and environmental advantages of natural gas in power generation and as a fuel, when compared with other fossil fuels. Technical progress towards reduced environmental loading and combined cycle power generation is also important.

The demand charts, classified by area, reveal that 13% of Japan’s primary energy supply for 2001 came from natural gas, while the respective percentages in North America and Europe are both near 23%. Natural gas is produced abundantly in these regions.

UH3.1.4.

Trend for technology using natural-gas

As an alternative to petroleum as a source of energy, promotion of natural gas cogeneration is expected to yield environmental load reduction and energy conservation. The conversion of fuel from coal to natural gas in large fuel consumption type equipment, such as industrial furnaces and boilers, is aiming at curtailment of CO2 emissions.

21

21

21

Therefore, development of cogeneration, which is operated using natural gas under low thermal power ratio with high power generation efficiency, and a natural gas car with comparatively small heat demand are progressing in a public welfare section.

UH3.1.5.

Clean Natural Gas (CNG) vehicle

Natural-gas fueled vehicles are classified as shown in Fig. 4 by the storage system for the fuel. Presently, the majority of the natural-gas fueled vehicles in the world use compressed natural gas (CNG).6

vehicles in the world use compressed natural gas (CNG).6 Fig. 4 Natural gas fueled vehicles The

Fig. 4 Natural gas fueled vehicles

The construction of natural gas fueled vehicles is similar to that for alternative gasoline and diesel fueled vehicles, with the only difference being the fuel line.7 It is basically the same with all the models. Fig. 5 illustrates this system for a natural gas fueled automobile.8

One characteristic of natural gas fueled vehicles is their clean exhaust emissions. For example, The CO2 emissions from natural gas fueled vehicles are 0.2 – 0.3 those for gasoline fueled vehicles. As is well known, emissions of pollutant gases such as NOx (nitrogen oxides), which cause environmental pollution in the form of photochemical smog and acid rain, CO (carbon monoxide), HC (hydrocarbons), and SOx (sulfur oxides) are reduced from natural gas fueled vehicles.

Black smoke is not emitted – PM (particulate matter) emissions are nonexistent.

Comparison of the CO2 emissions from conventional gasoline and eco-friendly automobiles is shown in Fig. 6. Because of proven merits, business vehicles such as buses, trash collection vehicles, delivery vans/trucks, and fork lifts are operating on and changing from gasoline to natural gas. Typically, the traveling efficiency is superior, and fuel economy equal to those for gasoline and diesel powered vehicles. Noise and vibration is improved substantially when compared with the diesel engine.

6

7

8

The Energy and Resources Today / Energy in the World Today;

http://www.gas.or.jp/ngvj/text/ngv_str.html

Japanese site; http://www.gas.or.jp/ngvj/text/ngv_str.html

“Energy sources for low emission vehicles”,

http://www.gas.or.jp/gasfacts_e/11/index.html

22

22

22
Fig. 5 The detail schematic of natural gas fueled automobile Fig. 6 Comparison of CO

Fig. 5 The detail schematic of natural gas fueled automobile

Fig. 5 The detail schematic of natural gas fueled automobile Fig. 6 Comparison of CO 2

Fig. 6 Comparison of CO 2 emissions from conventional and eco-friendly vehicles

UH3.2. Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) technology

Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) processes reform natural gas into liquid fuels such as gasoline, lamp oil, and light oil. These fuels can be conveyed at normal temperature. Several GTL processes are compared in Table 1. Liquid fuels manufactured by GTL processes can be conveyed and stored like oil products, and can be placed in existing markets. Moreover, if less expensive manufacturing processes are established, their scale may create business opportunities in smaller gas fields. Thus, fields not making LNG or unable to support pipeline distribution may become profitable and provide products for distant consumers. GTL technologies can produce fuels that are environmentally friendly.

23

23

23

Liquid hydrocarbon fuels, which are compounded from natural gas streams, contain negligible sulfur and particulate impurities and are candidate feeds for applications such as fuel cell electric vehicles and diesel alternative fuels .9,10

Table 1 Comparison of GTL processes

 

Place and

Process

developer

Characteristics

GTG (Gas-to-

1986,

Methanol is manufactured using a natural gas feed to make synthetic gas. This is continuously changed into the gasoline fraction centering on perfume fellows by the so-called mobile method (Methanol- to - Gasoline process). The process has a commercialized capacity of 570,000 ton/yr.

Gasoline)

Commercialized in New Zealand

SMDS (Shell Middle Distillate Synthesis)

Commercialized by Shell in Malaysia

Partial oxidization of the natural gas is carried out with oxygen and the products are used to make synthetic gas. Subsequently, wax and light oil are manufactured by the Fischer-Tropsch (FT) reaction. In the FT reaction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are used to form large molecular weight hydrocarbons over a catalyst. The process has a commercialized capacity of 500,000 ton/yr.

SASOL

Commercialized in Republic of South Africa

Since South Africa was unable to import oil under the influence of a racial discrimination policy, it used coal from its own country as a raw material to produce an oil product via synthetic gas. The process is based on years of experience and original technical development. It is very competitive with modern GTL technology.

AGC-21 (Advanced Gas Conversion Technology for the 21st century)

Exxon

Although the development stage is complete, the process has not been commercialized.

Statoil

Statoil in Norway

With its large gas reserves, Norway has been developing catalysts and process reactors for a FT process to produce middle distillates from natural gas. The process continues to be challenged by catalyst performance and the ability to continuously extract the liquid product.

Rentech

Rentech, Colorado

In 2000, Rentech acquired a 75,000 ton/yr methanol plant in Colorado, USA for conversion into a GTL facility. The facility, which will be the first in the USA, will cost about $20M to convert. When operational (mid-2001) it produces 800-1,000 bbl/day of aromatic- free diesel fuel, naphtha, and petroleum waxes. It will cost nearly 50% less than a green-field site because the plant includes a synthesis gas generation unit.

USA

Syntroleum 11

Syntroleum in USA

Partial oxidization of natural gas is carried out by the auto thermal method with air. The FT reaction is used to form fuels from synthetic gas in the presence of nitrogen. The process is economical. Few details are available, although various evaluations have been performed since the announcement. Commercialization is planned in Australia.

9 “Gas to Liquids”; http://www.japex.co.jp/en/technology/g_liquids.html

10 “Gas to liquids ”, http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm

24

24

24

UH3.3. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) technology

As noted above, the world’s natural-gas market is presently strengthened as a buyer’s market by production increases and planned projects in the Middle East, Europe, and Indonesia. Furthermore, oil-producing countries are also showing a positive posture towards development of natural gas opportunities. Therefore, research and development is progressing on technology such as GTL and DME, which supports the new availability of natural gas. Products from new LNG projects are summarized by country in Table 2.

The main ingredient of natural gas is methane. At normal temperature natural gas is a gas, but when cooled below - 163 °C, it becomes liquefied natural gas (LNG). It is conventionally manufactured in large quantities and used for power generation or town gas. Immense energy is required for production of LNG, beginning with the need to cool the natural gas to -163 °C. Recently, LNG process development has led to successes as summarized in Table 3.12

Table 2 New LNG projects of principal product-gas countries

Country

Products (10 B m 3 /year)

Reserves (10 B m 3 /year)

New LNG Projects (10 B m 3 /year)

Australia

32.7

2,550

22.8

Indonesia

62.9

2,620

27.6

Iran

60.6

23,000

33.1

Malaysia

47.4

2,120

9.4

Oman

13.4

830

4.6

Qatar

32.5

14,400

20.5

Russia

542.4

47,570

13.2

The United Arab Emirates

41.3

6,010

2.8

Table 3 Several technologies using LNG

Technology

Characteristic

Cold energy power generation system

A regeneration system that produces electric power from “cold thermal energy”, which otherwise would have been disposed to the atmosphere and sea water.

Air liquefaction and separation

The power expense of air separation equipment is reduced by using “cold thermal energy”.

Liquefaction of carbonic acid

Liquefied carbonic acid is efficiently manufactured using “cold thermal energy”. The process has been applied in an oil industrial complex.

Air-conditioning, refrigeration and a cold storage warehouse

Environmental load reduction has been attained. Liquefaction carbon dioxide is efficiently manufactured by cold thermal. The employment start has already been carried out as effective use of energy in the oil industrial complex area.

Turbine inhalation-of- air cooling

Environmental load reduction of the object for air-conditioning, and a refrigeration and a cold storage warehouse is attained.

UH3.4. Dimethyl Ether (DME)

Dimethyl ether (DME) is a stable gas at room temperature and is easily liquefied by compression. It is handled by methods that are similar to those used for LPG. Toxicity of DME is very low and it doesn’t contain the sulfur that is found in methanol. Burning DME doesn’t generate SOx and produces little NOx. Differences in physical properties between DME and conventional fuels are summarized in Table 4. 13

11 “Western Australia - Australia's resource State”,

12 “Japanese site”;

13 “about DME”; http://www.dmeforum.jp/about/property_e.html

http://www.chemlink.com.au/wachem.htm

http://www.tohoku.meti.go.jp/enetai/energy/kanrishiteikojo/shishin/toku_ko3.pdf

25

25

25

Table 4 Comparison of physical properties between DME and similar fuels

 

DME

Methan

Propane

Methanol

Gas oil

(LNG)

formula

CH 3 OCH 3

CH 4

C

3 H 8

CH 3 OH

-

boiling point (°C)

-25.1

-161.5

-42

64.8

180~360

liquid density (g/cm 3 (@20°C))

0.67

-

0.49

0.79

0.84

gas specific gravity

1.59

0.55

1.52

 

- -

saturated steam pressure (atm, 25°C)

6.1

-

9.3

 

- -

firing temperature(?)

350

632

504

470

250

explosion limit (%)

3.4~17

5~15

2.1~9.4

5.5~36

0.6~7.5

cetane rating

55~60

0

 

5

5

40~55

low heat value (kcal/kg)

6,900

12,000

11,100

5,040

10,200

(R&D brochure of 5t/d pilot plant)

DME is mostly used as an injection agent for sprays for paint, agricultural chemicals, and cosmetics. Approximately 10,000 ton/yr are used in Japan and approximately 150,000 ton/yr worldwide. Various DME uses are illustrated in Fig. 7. 14

Various DME uses are illustrated in Fig. 7. 1 4 Fig. 7 Various uses of DME

Fig. 7 Various uses of DME

DME is manufactured by a direct compounding method from products of methanol dehydration, hydrogen, and carbon monoxide. Since DME production begins with natural gas and uses hydrogen and carbon, it can be formed from other feeds, including organic matter such as residual oil, livestock feces and urine, and coal. Alternative production lines are illustrated in Fig. 8. Typical DME production processes use either the indirect synthetic method (dehydration reaction of methanol) or a direct synthetic method for producing DME from materials such as natural gas, coal bed methane, and synthetic gas (syngas 15 ) made from coal or biomass. At present, DME is usually made by the indirect method and technology development towards direct synthetic methods is in progress. 16 In

14 “DME used as fuel”, http://www.dmeforum.jp/about/fuel_e.html 15 Syngas is a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide made from the high temperature reaction of steam with hydrocarbons.(steam reforming).

16 “DME Forum”; http://www.dmeforum.jp/about/process.html

26

26

26

Japan, a 5 ton/day pilot plant was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry to investigate direct synthetic methods for DME production with various feeds, including coal bed methane and synthetic gas from coal gasification. The program ran for 4 years beginning in 1997.

gasification. The program ran for 4 years beginning in 1997. Fig. 8 DME production processes Also
gasification. The program ran for 4 years beginning in 1997. Fig. 8 DME production processes Also
gasification. The program ran for 4 years beginning in 1997. Fig. 8 DME production processes Also
gasification. The program ran for 4 years beginning in 1997. Fig. 8 DME production processes Also

Fig. 8 DME production processes

Also in Japan, NKK started technical development in 1989 towards extensive manufacture of DME. Under support from the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, construction of a 5 ton/day examination plant was begun in 1999 in cooperation with the Pacific Ocean Coal Mine and Sumitomo Metal Industries under the Coal Use Synthesis Center. Experiments with this plant demonstrated the world’s first direct composition of DME from methane in the coal bed. Through cost comparison with other energy technologies, it was estimated that a commercial plant with at least 2,500-ton/day capacity is necessary, and future work should focus on manufacturing technology and process verification.

DME fuel has been targeted for applications such as automobiles and for distributed power on islands. Commercial plants could be sited in the minor gas fields of Asia and the Pacific Ocean area to foster utilization and spread activities in these areas. Under current investigation are uses of LPG supply infrastructures such as LPG filling stations and tanks for the supply of DME.

The oil crisis in the 1980s raised interest in processes that yield synthetic gasoline. In these processes, synthetic gas with CO and H 2 are main ingredients. These feeds can serve to compound DME. The flow charts for a synthetic gas plant and a DME composition slurry-floor reactor are shown in and Fig. 10, respectively.

Fig. 9 Schematic for a synthetic gas plant for DME production (5 ton/day) 17

Fig. 9 Schematic for a synthetic gas plant for DME production (5 ton/day) 1 7 1

17 IRAN Petroleum, Issue No.4

27

27

27
Fig. 10 DME composition slurry - floor reactor This research and development has achieved anticipated

Fig. 10 DME composition slurry-floor reactor

This research and development has achieved anticipated results and work began in 2002 on construction of a 100 ton/day pilot plant. The larger plant will begin operation in 2004.

UH3.5. Methane Hydrate

Methane hydrate is currently being examined as a next-generation energy resource to replace oil and natural gas. Methane hydrate is an ice-like substance with the moisture child connoted methane in the basket (cluster) made by the hydrogen bond. Although methane hydrate is confined in the stratum and exists as a solid, it can be released as natural gas. Research and development of methane hydrate have placed emphasis on making solid methane hydrate decompose to produce methane and by-products such as hydrocarbons. If methane is extractable, development of use will follow that for natural gas. Fig. 11 shows that methane hydrate is distributed globally in the earth’s surface and concentrated on the submarine deposition layer and permafrost layer zone of the continental margin. 18

The levels of NO x or SO x emitted when gases from methane hydrate are burned are unknown, but as natural gases the emissions will be cleaner than those from oil and coal. However, high releases of CO 2 from burning methane for a period of 100 years draw attention to global warming and its influence on the environment. 19 Moreover, when methane hydrate gas production is developed, new environmental impacts will emerge.

18 Kuvenvolden, K.A. “Estimates of the Methane Content of Worldwide Gas Hydrates

presented at Methane Hydrates Resources in the Near Future?, JNOC-TRC

19 Research Consortium for Methane Hydrate Resources in Japan;

Deposits,”

of Japan, October 20-22, 1998

http://www.mh21japan.gr.jp/mh-1.html

28

28

28
Fig. 11 Worldwide distribution of gas-hydrates These include the emission of methane, water generation as

Fig. 11

Worldwide distribution of gas-hydrates

These include the emission of methane, water generation as a by-product, influence on marine organisms, and stability of the foundation (land subsidence after mining and possibility of a submarine landslide) beneath the sea. Large-scale mining beneath the sea can lead to landslides and calls for monitoring of the ocean space environment with apparatus and sensors. Research into such technology and that for monitoring methane in real time is underway.

UH3.6. Future R&D of natural-gas technologies

Although natural gas is presently conveyed and used in the form of LNG, as mentioned before, development of new processes for GTL and DME will be examined. As for the use of natural gas in applications such as power generation, diesel engines, fuel cells, and noncommercial uses, the objectives for development are focused on simplified handling and liquefaction.

UH3.7. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)

LPG is composed of liquefied petroleum gas (C 3 H 8 ) and butane (C 4 H 10 ). Through liquefaction, gas volume is reduced by a factor of 250 for storage and transport. LPG has many commercial and residential applications such as the cassette cylinder, writer, and spray. LPG is imported with crude oil and natural gas from the Middle East and especially Saudi Arabia. It is also commercially produced in Japanese refineries. LPG is an excellent source of clean energy:

It produces very little CO 2 when compared with oil or coal combustion.

It contains almost no sulfur or nitrogen.

It produces no particulate matter emissions or ash.

Its by-products do not yield ozone-layer depletion.

Propane has 2.5 times and butane 3.3 times the caloric value per volume of natural gas.

UH3.7.1.

Distribution of LPG production

The production of LPG in 2002 was about 210 million ton, and increased from 120 million ton in 1985 – see Fig. 12. The gas separated from refining oil occupies the largest market share (40%), followed by associated gas (35%), and crude oil (25%). The market share for North America was 38.4% in 1985, but this decreased to 28.4% by 2002. Still, North America remained the largest producer of LPG. The Asian area has shown production growth from 10.7% in 1985 to 18.6% in 2002, while the African area has grown 3.8% in 1985 to 7.6% in 2002.

29

29

29
Fig. 12 Worldwide production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand

Fig. 12

Worldwide production of LPG

UH3.7.2.

Trend for consumption of LPG

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

production of LPG UH3.7.2. Trend for consumption of LPG The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately

The worldwide demand for LPG is approximately 210 million ton, and is increasing at an average annual rate of 3.4%, exceeding the demand for natural gas since 1995.

Although North America satisfied 38% of worldwide demand 1985 and was the largest demand area, demand for LPG has increased in other areas. As of 2002, North America consumed only 28.7% of worldwide demand – see Fig. 13. The Asian area has tripled its demand and passed North America in 2001 to become the largest demand

area. Demand for LPG rose from 19.5% of worldwide demand in 1985 to 29.7% in 2002. The market for cars using LPG is increasing and about 9 million vehicles will establish an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in

2002.

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

Fig. 13

The trend of the LP gas consumption in the world

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

an approximately 16 million ton market in the world in 2002. Fig. 13 The trend of

30

30

30

UH3.7.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of LPG

According to a consulting firm, LPG supply and demand in the world increases at an average annual rate of 2.2%. It is predicted to reach 310 million ton in 2020. While North America (26.5%) and Western Europe (9.2%) will reduce their market share, Asia will show growth to 33.1%. Growth is seen in home business use and materials development. As the supply of LPG in the world increases to 310 million ton in 2020, it is predicted that the supply from North America area (26.1%), the Middle East area (20.4%), and the Asian area (19.0%) will account for two- thirds of world supply. Consequently, the demand-and-supply balance will become as shown in Fig. 14, while export from the Middle East area will increase, and the Asian area will increase imports. 20

increase, and the Asian area will increase imports. 2 0 Fig. 14 The prospect for future

Fig. 14 The prospect for future demand of LPG

UH3.7.4.

Trend for technology using LPG

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

future demand of LPG UH3.7.4. Trend for technology using LPG The demand for LPG gas has

The demand for LPG gas has been leveling-off over the past ten years. Home business use is growing and accounts for approximately 40% of demand. Industrial use remains large, while town-gas usage is seeing a conversion to natural gas and its market share is reduced. The market share for cars forms approximately 8% of the whole LPG demand, and although use in taxis is important now, expansion to freight vehicles is expected. The outline of this system is shown in Fig. 15. Cogeneration is an advanced electric power supply method that combines the production of electricity and heat. A variety of fuels can be used for this application including LPG. 21

20 “LP gas”; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16022242.html

21 Japan LP gas Association home page; http://www.j-lpgas.gr.jp/cog/index.html

31

31

31

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application

UH3.7.5.

Co-generation

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

Fig. 15 Demand for LGP by application UH3.7.5. Co-generation LPG is expected to serve small-user markets

LPG is expected to serve small-user markets such as homes and small businesses. A noteworthy technology is a fuel cell system for efficient distributed power generation. Air pollutants such as NO x and SO x can be sharply abated in comparison with conventional power generation equipment, and adoption of the technology yields reduced distribution costs or, at least, burden on bulk supplies. LPG solid polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEFC) development supports this objective, and an example is illustrated in Fig. 16. 22

Since a fuel cell directly transforms chemical energy to electrical energy, it yields higher efficiency than cogeneration by gas engine or gas turbine. The power generation efficiency of a commercial phosphoric acid fuel cell is approximately 40% of exhaust thermal efficiency, and overall efficiency for power generation is approximately 80%. That is, power generation and usable thermal energy from the exhaust each result from approximately 40% of the fuel’s energy.

each result from approximately 40% of the fuel’s energy. Fig. 16 LPG solid polymer electrolyte membrane
each result from approximately 40% of the fuel’s energy. Fig. 16 LPG solid polymer electrolyte membrane

Fig. 16 LPG solid polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (home fuel cell)

Fuel cells produce heat and electrical energy by chemical reactions and release negligible gaseous emissions to the environment, when compared with gas engines and gas turbines. As shown in Fig. 17, fuel cells are also used as

22 Japanese site; http://www.nissekigas.co.jp/common/fc/index.htm

32

32

32

efficient hot-water heaters and to generate electricity to be returned to the commercial power system. LPG, as a feed material, is reformed by hydrogen in the fuel processing equipment, and electricity is generated in a PEFC stack by the chemical reaction using hydrogen and the oxygen in the air. Moreover, heat from the fuel processing equipment or PEFC stack can serve the hot-water supply demand for the home or a back-up boiler.

hot-water supply demand for the home or a back-up boiler. Fig. 17 Outline for a domestic
hot-water supply demand for the home or a back-up boiler. Fig. 17 Outline for a domestic

Fig. 17 Outline for a domestic hot-water supply system

UH3.7.6.

LPG vehicle

Currently, fuel cells are capturing the spotlight for the latest electric vehicles. A typical outline for such as system is shown in Fig. 18.

A typical outline for such as system is shown in Fig. 18 . Fig. 18 Fuel

Fig. 18 Fuel cell system for cars

Although other fuels are being demonstrated, hydrogen is still the primary fuel being considered for fuel cell applications and its source can be methanol, LPG, natural gas, gasoline, light oil, lamp oil, etc. Aside from hydrogen storage in the vehicle, there are technical challenges with generating hydrogen from the various fuels - each fuel has its practical merits and demerits with associated cost implications. LPG as a feed material is second only to gasoline in availability and development for storage on vehicles. Challenges in using LPG remain, as CO 2 is released in forming hydrogen from LPG 23 . However, NO x and SO x are not emitted and the noise level is small in comparison with that from diesel engines.

23 Japanese site; http://www.j-lpgas.gr.jp/lgv/10.html

33

33

33

Technical development has centered on replacement of diesel cars by those fueled with LPG. Local government in Japan is replacing diesel cars, public buses, and garbage collection trucks with LPG vehicles. The use of LPG in taxi vehicles for approximately 20 yr without accident has proven safety. Gasoline and LPG fueled vehicles compare favorably from a cost standpoint. LPG yields perfect combustion, so that no CO gas is emitted. No lead and negligible sulfur and benzene are emitted as with gasoline and diesel engines.

Recently, the LPI (Liquid Petroleum Gas Injection System) car was developed by Vialle Alternative Fuel Systems BV in the Netherlands. The Bi-fuel arrangement for this car is shown in Fig. 19. The car uses a conventional gasoline injection system and supplements it with alternative fuels. Electronic controls are used to adjust the quantity of gas so that its combustion efficiency is high. There are advantages as follows:

At low mpg operation it is almost equivalent to a gasoline vehicle, and is 10 – 20% low mpg from the conventional LPG cars. When LPG is used, the output is more than from a gasoline-fueled vehicle. The exhaust gas is cleaner than from LPG cars. It can run a Bi-fuel vehicle, i.e., LPG and gasoline with both as fuel, and it is possible to use all the LPG in its tank.

as fuel, and it is possible to use all the LPG in its tank. Fig. 19

Fig. 19 Bi-fuel system

UH3.7.7.

Future R&D of LPG technologies

The environmental load of LPG is relatively small. As with natural gas, there is no emission of particulate matter (PM). Distributed power from fuel cells using LPG are efficient – though, since LPG is a byproduct of petroleum refining and NG processing – there is an upper limit for supply. LPG produces little CO 2 emissions under abnormal operation. Use of LPG should be promoted for broad use in cogeneration and fuel cells. Since the infrastructure cost of LPG is lower than alternative clean fuels such as CNG or LNG , applications in many countries are expected.

DME has similar qualities to LPG, so application development of either serves both. The LPG industry has know- how and existing infrastructure to support research and development.

UH3.8. Coal

UH3.8.1.

Distribution of coal resources

Coal is distributed more widely than oil and natural gas. It has a big merit in Japan, because it is produced in Pacific Rim countries such as China, Australia, and Indonesia. Also, coal’s reserve production stands 204 years – longer than those for energies based on oil and natural gas. The distribution of coal reserves is illustrated in Fig. 20. 24

24 Japanese site; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16022251.html

34

34

34

UH3.8.2.

Trend in demand for coal

The amount of coal (including lignite) consumed in the world in 2002 was 4,741 million ton. Of this coal, 888 million tons was lignite. The consumption of lignite showed a 1.8% annual growth, while the other coals showed a 2.1% growth in consumption. The distribution of coal consumption is summarized in Fig. 21.

China (26.4%) and the United States (20.5%) consume nearly half (46.9%) of the coal (including lignite) – see Fig. 21. China’s consumption has started to increase again in recent years, although the amount of coal consumption has been decreasing from a peak in 1996. 25

consumption has been decreasing from a peak in 1996. 2 5 Fig. 20 Recoverable coal reserves

Fig. 20 Recoverable coal reserves of the world

1996. 2 5 Fig. 20 Recoverable coal reserves of the world 2 5 Japanese site;

25 Japanese site; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16022253.html

35

35

35

Fig. 21

Coal consumption in the world (excluding lignite)

UH3.8.3.

Prospect for supply-and-demand of coal

IEA has projected the largest growth in demand for coal to be in China, and that this will encourage overall growth in demand in the Asian area. On the other hand, we can see that the growth in other areas is small (Fig. 22). Coal supply increases are expected in China, the USA, India, etc., while decreases are predicted in the OECD Europe area. 26

decreases are predicted in the OECD Europe area. 2 6 Fig. 22 Worldwide growth in demand

Fig. 22 Worldwide growth in demand for coal (2000 to 2030)

UH3.8.4.

Trend for technology using clean coal

Environmental loads of coal, such as CO 2 emissions, are large compared with those from oil or natural gas. The development and spread of coal-use technology (clean coal technology: CCT) which support a cleaner environment are important. Possible areas for technology development are shown in Fig. 23. The most cost-effective combination will depend on local circumstances and the cost of technology

Given the energy resource that coal represents, it is necessary to promote development of economical clean-coal technologies such as coal gasification combined cycle power generation (IGCC) and coal gasification fuel cell combined cycle power generation (IGFC). This will lead to reduced CO 2 emissions through improvement in combustion efficiency of power plants. In Asia and the Pacific Ocean area, where the greatest increase in coal demand is expected, it is important to encourage transfer of clean coal technology to developing countries. The aim is to accept expanded coal use in developing countries, while protecting the environment, taking measures against global warming, and applying a clean development mechanism (CDM).

26 Japanese site; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16022255.html

36

36

36
Fig. 23 Outline of the main clean coal technology 2 7 Clean coal technology is

Fig. 23 Outline of the main clean coal technology 27

Clean coal technology is summarized by the following:

Improving thermal efficiency by IGFC and IGCC technologies and reducing CO 2 emissions. Adopting technology to abate NO x and SO x emissions, and achieve CO 2 separation recovery and fixation. Adopting advanced technology such as coal liquefaction, gasification, liquefaction, and slurry conversion. Adopting technology for the effective use of coal ashes.

Approaches in each of these areas are described below.

27 “Clean Coal technology”; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16013253.html

37

37

37

UH3.8.5.

Technology for the improvement in thermal efficiency

Several technologies are commercialized or near commercialization:

a) Supercritical pressure pulverized coal thermal power generation is commercialized.

b) Extra super critical pressure pulverized coaled coal thermal power and

c) Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion (PFBC) Combined Cycle system are near-term technologies.

d) Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) system, as shown in Fig. 24 should reach commercialization around 2010.

e) The coal gasification fuel cell power generation system is expected around 2020. 28

If the end efficiency for thermal-power-generation/transmission is 38% and CO 2 generation is set to 100 by Japanese average (1997 levels), the efficiency of the above mentioned processes and the amount of CO 2 generated by them will be a) 40% @ 95, b) 41%@93, c)42%@ 90, d) 46% @83 and e) 54% @70 when commercialized. It turns out that power generation efficiency improves with technology development from a) to e), and CO 2 generation is reduced.

Smoke Smoke Stack Stack Coal Coal Gas Gas Exhaust Exhaust Purification Purification Gasification Gasification
Smoke
Smoke
Stack
Stack
Coal
Coal
Gas
Gas
Exhaust
Exhaust
Purification
Purification
Gasification
Gasification
Heat
Heat
Heat
Heat
Reactor
Reactor
Exchanger
Exchanger
Collection
Collection
Boiler
Boiler
Steam
Steam
Coal
Coal
Air
Air
Turbine
Turbine
pulverizer
pulverizer
Electric
Electric
Transformer
Transformer
Char
Char
Collection
Collection
Generator
Generator
Char
Char
Gas
Gas
Hopper
Hopper
Device
Device
Turbine
Turbine
Gasifying Agent
Gasifying Agent
Slug Hopper
Slug Hopper
Cooling
Cooling
Water
Water
Booster
Booster

Fig. 24 Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle system

UH3.8.6.

Technology for environmental improvement

Environmental improvement is achieved through clean coal technology and technology for pollutant abatement. In Japan, technology exists for control of sulfur oxides (SO x ) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) found in combustion exhaust gases. There is also technology to separate, collect, and fix CO 2 emissions from large-scale generation sources.

CO 2 injection holds promise for improved crude oil recovery at oil fields (EOR process) – see Fig. 25. 29 Research towards technical development is complete and shows that methane collects in the coal bed as clean energy while fixing the CO 2 that would otherwise lead to global warming if released to the atmosphere.

28 The Northeast Asia Eco-friendly Energy Use Workshop, National Institute for Research

(NIRA). “Hokutou Asia no Kankyo Senryaku (Environmental Strategies

Hyoron-sha, 2004.

29 “CO 2 Sequestration Research Group”; http://www.rite.or.jp/English/E-home-frame.html

Advancement

in Northeast Asia).” Nihon Keizai

38

38

38
Fig. 25 Overview of CO 2 sequestration technology UH3.8.7. Technology for improvement of conventional fuels

Fig. 25 Overview of CO 2 sequestration technology

UH3.8.7.

Technology for improvement of conventional fuels

Coal-use improvement often depends on technology to produce Coal high functional-materials such as methanol, ammonia, and activated carbon, Automobile liquid fuel of added value, Home fuel such as light oil and lamp oil, and DME as a LPG alternative fuel.

A process flow model is illustrated in

Fig. 26. Coal handling technology can include the development of Coal-Water Mixtures (CWM) and Coal Cartridge Systems (CCS). CWM typically employs 7:3 pulverized coal-water suspensions. CCS is a total system technology that includes controlled pulverization, sealed transportation, and batch processing of the combustion ashes. Both are technologies at the actual proof stage.

39

39

39

As noted in an earlier section research has demonstrated the direct formation of DME from synthetic gases obtained through coal gasification.

from synthetic gases obtained through coal gasification. Fig. 26 Coal practical use energy and a functional-materials

Fig. 26

Coal practical use energy and a functional-materials chain 30

UH3.8.8.

for effective use of coal ashes

It is important to find uses for coal ashes. Studies on the use of coal ashes as cement materials, base course material, and land improvement material has already been performed. In the near future, technologies are anticipated for manufacturing artificial super lightweight aggregates, uses of flow floor boiler combustion ashes, and fly ash activation.

UH3.8.9.

Future R&D in coal technologies

In order to advance the use of coal, technology must be developed that improves combustion efficiency, draws hydrogen from coal, and puts coal ashes to good use.

Coal use is linked to global environmental problems, and Asia and the Pacific Ocean area will be looked on for their rising demand for coal. For this reason, the model enterprise of a circulation flow floor boiler (China) and an

30 Tsuge, A. “21-seiki no Energy Kankyo Shakai no Kochiku ni Mukete (Towards the Creation of the 21st

Century Energy-environment Society).” Preliminary Report for the Energy: 59-68, 2004.

42nd National Symposium on Atomic

40

40

40

advanced concentrating-coal system (Vietnam) have been undertaken for the purpose of promoting clean coal technology. 31

UH3.9. Non-conventional Oil

“Non-conventional oil” resources are quite large and could play a greater role in meeting future energy needs. Non- conventional oil initially in place could amount to as much as 7 trillion barrels of which 39 percent are tar sands and bitumen, 23 percent are extra heavy oil and 38 percent to be oil shales. Extra-heavy oil in Venezuela, tar sands in Canada and shale oil in the United States account for more than 80% of these resources. However, the amount of oil that could be recovered from these resources is very uncertain. The International Energy Agency in its World Energy Outlook, estimates that there were “only” 333 billion barrels of remaining recoverable bitumen reserves worldwide in 2003, which represents about 11 years of current total world oil production. 32

In its business as usual scenario, the IEA project that total non-conventional oil production to grow from 1.6 mb/d in 2002 to 3.8 mb/d in 2010 and 10.1 mb/d in 2030. By 2030, it is forecast to make up 8% of global oil supply. Non- conventional production technologies are already economic in some locations. Production efficiencies will come primarily from synthetic crude derived from oil sands in Alberta, Canada and from the Orinoco extra-heavy crude oil belt in Venezuela. Canadian oil-sands production has become much more competitive in recent years, especially from mining and upgrading projects. In-situ recovery techniques involve the introduction of heat, normally via steam, into the oil sands to allow the bitumen to flow to well bores and then to the surface. According to the IEA, the cost of production from such projects has been less than $US10 per barrel for the past 15 years. 33

The exploitation of these resources have associated potential for significant ecological impacts and threats to biodiversity and it will take a strong stand by governments to develop these resources while preserving the environment.

UH3.10.

Concluding Remarks

In this paper, we reviewed the present scope and status of hydrocarbon fuels which hold potential to replace oil. The continued use of oil poses challenges:

New oil fuels with reduced environmental loads are needed.

New oil stripper technology is needed.

Clean fuel conversion processes for heavy crude strippers are needed.

Advanced integrated technical development is needed for oil-refining to reduce environmental loads and improve processes.

IEA predicts future oil demands in the Asian area, including China, to increase greatly and there will be additional advancement in other areas as shown in

31 CO 2 Geological Sequestration Project; http://www.rite.or.jp/English/E-home-frame.html

32 World Energy Outlook, 2004, International Energy Agency

33 Ibid

41

41

41

Fig. 27 (prediction of this clause is hereafter based on an IEA prospect). 34

Research and development is needed for improved processes for production and use of fuels and for environmental controls. Processes that are inherently more environmental-friendly should receive greatest attention.

environmental-friendly should receive greatest attention. Fig. 27 Global growth of oil demand (from 2000 to 2030)

Fig. 27 Global growth of oil demand (from 2000 to 2030)

Energy supply and demand, infrastructure, maintenance, and related environmental issues vary among countries. Therefore, we should take regional needs into consideration as much as possible. Finally, technical development should consider needs of the next generation and environment.

UH4. Unconventional Hydrocarbon Roadmap

This section, and the ones that follow, summarise the findings of the expert working group assembled in Vancouver and PingTung (see Attachment UH1) to determine the development path forward for unconventional hydrocarbon technologies to contribute to the Vision and Goals of this Roadmap.

Input to the Working Group were the Roadmapping Methodology (see main text) and the Current Status of unconventional hydrocarbon technology described in Section 2.

UH4.1. Technology Drivers

The following were the key drivers considered by the WG in evaluating the technology priorities:

Rising energy prices as oil shortages and rising demand increase the costs of conventional energy supplies.

34 Japanese site; http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/hokoku/html/16022215.html

42

42

42

An increasing proportion of the world’s oil supplies are being sourced from politically unstable areas. Security of energy supplies for many countries is driving new investments. Energy reliability as brownouts and power failures are problems in major population areas. Strong global desire to reduce greenhouse gas and acid rain emissions.

UH4.2. Technology alternatives

The technology development challenges and opportunities identified by the expert group may be summarised as follows:

CHALLENGES

TECHNOLOGIES

Natural gas exploration and development

Greater efficiency of exploration and development for natural gas is needed from 2010 to 2020. The technology challenge is to discover and develop additional gas fields in offshore and in deeper waters. By 2030, successful offshore exploration and production capacity should grow the sector.

LNG Distribution and Storage

A small-scale, short-sea based distribution system for LNG would make natural gas commercially viable in regions with small-scale needs. Compared to the deep-sea LNG market, a short-sea, small-scale LNG distribution system would use smaller ships Cost-efficient processes for condensing boil-off gas more economically Patented BTU reduction processes that are seamlessly integrated into the design of regasification facilities for the management of gas heating value Semi-automatic ultrasonic equipment and test procedures for examining tank welds

Lower gas-to-liquids (GTL) costs (Fischer-Tropsch)

Gas-to-liquids (GTL) plants are expected to emerge as a major new market for natural gas, making use of known (and therefore cheaper) reserves located far from traditional markets. Interest in developing GTL projects has grown rapidly in recent years due to technological advances that have greatly reduced production costs and to higher oil prices. Holders of gas reserves that cannot be transported economically to market by pipeline may now be able to turn to GTL as an alternative or complement to LNG. All GTL plants now in operation, under construction or planned use Fischer- Tropsch technology, which converts natural gas into synthesis gas (syngas) and then, through catalytic reforming or synthesis, into very clean conventional oil products. The main fuel produced in most plants is diesel. The Fischer-Tropsch process uses reactors and special catalyst in the conversion of synthesis gas (CO and H2) into high quality diesel, naphtha, lubes, wax and many other gas/oil products that can be used to produce liquid and powder detergent, baby oil, etc. Unlike similar products produced by other means, GTL products are produced with purity by desulphurizing natural gas. As a feedstock, natural gas provides great opportunities via the syngas process that produces a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Moreover, such a mixture is the basic building block

43

43

43