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ITC
Performance Highlights
Quarterly result (Standalone)
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA OPM (%) PAT 4QFY13 8,180 2,629 32.1 1,928 4QFY12 6,861 2,170 31.6 1,614 % chg 19.2 21.2 51bp 19.4 3QFY13 7,627 2,773 36.4 2,052 %qoq 7.3 (5.2) (421)bp (6.0)
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code FMCG 261,985 (8,605) 0.8 355/225 391,472 1 20,112 6,114 ITC.BO ITC@IN
`332 -
For 4QFY2013, ITC posted a robust 19.4% yoy growth in its net profit to `1,928cr, in-line with estimates. The cigarette division posted a strong 20.2% improvement in its EBIT. Cigarette volumes rose by 2.5% on a yoy basis. The companys non-cigarette FMCG business turned profitable for the first time with EBIT of `12cr. Key highlights: For 4QFY2013 ITC posted strong set of numbers. Net sales rose by 19.2% on a yoy basis to `8,180cr. Cigarettes business posted a 11.5% yoy growth in net sales to `3,623cr aided largely by price hikes. Cigarette volumes rose by 2.5% on a yoy basis. Other FMCG business posted a healthy 26.0% yoy growth in net sales to `2,036cr. Agri business posted a strong 31.1% yoy growth in net sales to `1,855cr. Hotels and Papers & Packaging businesses posted a topline growth of 10.4% and 7.9% respectively. OPM came in at 32.1% up 51bp on yoy basis. While the cigarette business posted 421bp margin expansion, other FMCG business posted profit of `12cr (vs. loss of `17cr in 4QFY2012). The companys bottom-line rose by a healthy 19.4% yoy to `1,928cr. Outlook and valuation: We expect ITC to report a top-line and bottom-line CAGR of 16.2% and 19.2% respectively over FY2013-15E, driven by the companys diversified business model and ability to invest in growing businesses. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 24.9x FY2015E EPS. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 0.0 33.4 20.5 46.1
3m 4.1 11.8
FY2012 24,799 17.2 6,162 23.6 34.2 7.9 42.1 13.8 35.5 42.3 10.1 29.6
FY2013 29,606 19.4 7,418 20.4 34.9 9.4 35.3 11.8 36.1 43.8 8.4 24.2
FY2014E 34,294 15.8 8,909 20.1 36.8 11.3 29.4 9.7 36.1 45.5 7.2 19.6
FY2015E 39,991 16.6 10,543 18.3 37.0 13.3 24.9 7.8 34.9 44.5 6.1 16.4
V.Srinivasan 022 3935 7800 Ext: 6831 v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com
4QFY13 8,180 3,548 43.37 343 4.2 1,660 20.3 5,551 2,629 32.1 24 207 331 2,729 2,729 33.4 801 29.4 1,928 24 788 2.4
4QFY12 6,861 2,804 40.87 332 4.8 1,555 22.7 4,691 2,170 31.6 15 188 301 2,268 2,268 33.1 654 28.8 1,614 24 788 2.0
% yoy 19.2 26.5 3.3 6.8 18.3 21.2 51 63.8 9.9 9.9 20.3 20.3 22.5 19.4
3QFY13 7,627 3,077 40.3 346 4.5 1,431 18.8 4,854 2,773 36.4 25 205 415 2,957 2,957 38.8 905 30.6 2,052 27 788
%qoq 7.3 15.3 7.5 (0.8) (7.5) 16.0 8.1 14.4 (5.2) (421) (3.5) 0.7 (20.2) (7.7) (7.7) (13.9) (11.5) (4.1) (6.0) (12.4) 0.0 (6.0)
FY2013 29,606 12,066 40.8 1,387 4.7 5,821 19.7 19,274 10,332 34.9 86 796 1,234 10,684 10,684 36.1 3,266 30.6 7,418 25 788 9.4
FY2012 24,798 9,631 38.8 1,258 5.1 5,410 21.8 16,299 8,499 34.3 78 699 1,175 8,898 8,898 35.9 2,735 30.7 6,163 25 788 7.8
% chg 19.4 25.3 10.3 7.6 18.3 21.6 62.4 11.0 13.9 4.6 20.0 20.0 19.4 20.3
19.4
2.6
20.3
5,974
5,836
5,767
6,195
6,861
6,652
7,146
7,627
1,200 200
8,180
5.0
2Q12
4Q11
1Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
(800)
4Q13
56.6
24.6
24.5 21.5
21.3
35.3
37.1 31.6
30.7
34.7
36.5
36.4 32.1
(` cr)
10.0
1,281
1,333
1,514
1,701
1,614
1,602
1,836
2,052
500 -
1,928
5.0
-
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
OPM
Gross margin
PAT (LHS)
4Q13
( %)
4QFY13 3,623 2,036 315 1,854 1,058 707 8,180 2,112 12 41 128 188 2,481 58.3 0.6 12.9 6.9 17.8
4QFY12 3,250 1,617 286 1,414 980 685 6,861 1,758 (17) 83 106 196 2,125 54.1 (1.0) 29.0 7.5 20.0
% yoy 11.5 26.0 10.4 31.1 7.9 3.1 19.2 20.2 (51.0) 20.8 (3.9) 16.7
2QFY13 3,657 1,783 309 1,631 1,062 815 7,627 2,234 (24) 55 173 229 2,666 61.1 (1.3) 17.9 10.6 21.5
% qoq (0.9) 14.2 1.9 13.7 (0.4) (13.3) 7.3 (5.4) (26.8) (26.1) (17.7) (7.0)
FY13 13,970 6,983 1,074 7,201 4,237 3,860 29,605 8,326 (81) 138 731 964 10,078 59.6 (1.2) 12.8 10.2 22.8
FY12 12,324 5,526 1,096 5,695 3,929 3,674 24,896 6,908 (195) 279 643 936 8,571 56.1 (3.5) 25.5 11.3 23.8
% chg 13.4 26.4 (2.0) 26.4 7.8 5.0 18.9 20.5 (50.7) 13.7 3.0 17.6
61.4
61.1 6,808
6,419
11
4Q12
15 1Q13
10
-
2Q13
3Q13
(` cr)
1,500
1,000
(` cr)
16.8
(%)
20.0 15.0
1,315
1,201
1,345
1,375
1,623
1,479
1789
2043
500 -
1,700
10.0 5.0 -
(56)
(68) (76)
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
2Q12
4Q11
1Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
(24)
4Q13
Investment rationale
Cigarettes to continue to grow in double digits: We believe ITCs cigarette business is well poised to continue to post a double-digit sales growth over FY2013-15E. The company has continued to take price hikes over the past one year and it has not impacted its volumes much, indicating the companys strong pricing power. Non-cigarette businesses to register an ~17% CAGR over FY2013-15E: While cigarettes remain the main profit center for the company, investments in the non-cigarette businesses such as FMCG, hotels and paperboards have given the company a foothold in the respective businesses. We expect these businesses to play a major role in driving the companys long-term growth.
CMP (`)
4,782 565 1,419 155 847 4,747 586 332 220 5,246 144
CAGR # Sales
15.4 15.5 15.1 16.5 18.8 17.6 14.7 16.2 14.8 14.9 10.0
FY15E
29.4 22.5 27.4 24.6 28.5 31.9 31.8 24.9 25.3 34.0 16.6
FY15E
2.9 0.7 4.4 3.0 3.1 4.0 3.6 6.1 2.4 4.4 0.5
FY15E
32.2 37.3 88.0 40.1 24.2 33.7 87.0 34.9 21.0 50.7 9.8
EPS
18.4 22.0 17.4 19.5 18.9 19.6 11.7 19.2 24.0 16.2 13.0
Source: Company, Angel research; Note: # Denotes CAGR over FY2013-15E, *December Year Ending.
Nov-12
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Aug-10
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-11
Aug-12
Feb-13
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Sep-11
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Source: Company, Angel Research ( Blue line indicates 5-year Average PE)
Source: Company, Angel Research, (Blue line indicates 5-year Avg. premium
Jan-13
FY10 18,153 16.3 12,079 7,007 512 1,003 3,557 6,074 25.0 33.5 609 5,465 26.8 30.1 65 615 10.2 6,015 24.7 6,015 1,954 32.5 4,061 4,061 24.4 22.4 5.2 5.2 24.4
FY11 21,168 16.6 14,046 8,161 624 1,140 4,122 7,121 17.2 33.6 656 6,465 18.3 30.5 68 871 12.0 7,268 20.8 7,268 2,281 31.4 4,988 4,988 22.8 23.6 6.4 6.4 22.8
FY12 24,798 17.2 16,318 9,633 687 1,256 4,743 8,480 19.1 34.2 699 7,782 20.4 31.4 78 1,201 13.5 8,904 22.5 8,904 2,742 30.8 6,162 6,162 23.5 24.8 7.9 7.9 23.6
FY13 29,606 19.4 19,274 12,066 759 1,387 5,062 10,332 21.8 34.9 796 9,536 22.5 32.2 86 1,234 11.6 10,684 20.0 10,684 3,266 30.6 7,418 7,418 20.4 25.1 9.4 9.4 19.1
FY14E 34,294 15.8 21,688 12,720 995 1,783 6,190 12,606 22.0 36.8 826 11,780 23.5 34.3 66 1,349 10.3 13,062 22.3 13,062 4,154 31.8 8,909 8,909 20.1 26.0 11.3 11.3 20.1
FY15E 39,991 16.6 25,212 14,754 1,160 2,080 7,218 14,780 17.2 37.0 881 13,899 18.0 34.8 66 1,626 10.5 15,458 18.3 15,458 4,916 31.8 10,543 10,543 18.3 26.4 13.3 13.3 18.3
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY12 782 18,010 18,792 79 873 107 16 19,866 13,926 4,820 9,107 2,269 6,317 1,194 10,080 2,819 637 6,624 9,100 980 19,866
FY13E 790 21,498 22,288 66 1,204 126 3 23,687 16,668 5,615 11,052 1,645 7,060 1,728 12,532 3,615 1,154 7,764 10,331 2,201 23,687
FY14E 790 26,257 27,047 66 802 126 3 28,044 17,868 6,441 11,427 1,787 8,698 1,728 15,209 4,207 1,029 9,973 10,805 4,404 28,044
FY15E 790 32,649 33,440 66 802 126 3 34,437 19,068 7,322 11,745 1,907 12,333 1,728 17,933 5,103 1,200 11,630 11,210 6,723 34,437
14,957 11,968 3,825 8,142 1,009 5,727 8,143 1,126 1,595 5,422 8,064 79 14,957
16,958 12,601 4,245 8,356 1,323 5,555 1,146 9,054 2,243 657 6,154 8,476 579 16,958
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
FY10 6,015 609 291 (267) 1,954 206 4,901 (1,204) (2,889) (4,093) 721 (70) 1,630 (267) (712) 95 1,031 1,126
FY11 7,268 656 4 (326) 2,281 (188) 5,133 (947) 172 (775) 904 (19) 4,452 (326) (3,241) 1,117 1,126 2,243
FY12 8,905 699 (822) (516) 2,742 903 6,426 (2,272) (762) (3,034) 765 (9) 4,088 (516) (2,816) 576 2,243 2,819
FY13E 10,684 796 (301) (588) 3,266 (321) 7,004 (2,117) (744) (2,860) 8 (13) 3,931 (588) (3,347) 796 2,819 3,615
FY14E 13,062 826 (1,892) (678) 4,154 (121) 7,044 (1,342) (1,638) (2,980) 4,150 (678) (3,472) 592 3,615 4,207
FY15E 15,458 881 (1,476) (955) 4,916 53 9,047 (1,320) (3,635) (4,955) 4,150 (955) (3,195) 897 4,207 5,103
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
10
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) Net Working capital (days)
previous year numbers
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
63.8 27.1 9.0 3.0 14.0 41.9 17.0 5.2 5.2 12.2 10.0 36.8 36.8 50.2 29.2 1.6 91 18 71 (21)
52.0 45.5 16.1 1.3 11.9 35.5 14.9 6.4 6.4 7.3 4.5 20.6 40.5 56.7 33.2 1.7 91 15 77 (29)
42.1 37.8 13.8 1.4 10.1 29.6 12.6 7.9 7.9 8.8 4.5 24.0 42.3 53.4 35.5 1.9 83 15 71 (27)
35.3 31.9 11.8 1.3 8.4 24.2 10.5 9.4 9.4 10.4 4.3 28.2 43.8 55.0 36.1 1.9 91 15 64 (17)
29.4 26.9 9.7 1.4 7.2 19.6 8.8 11.3 11.3 12.3 4.5 34.2 45.5 58.7 36.1 1.9 91 15 57 2
24.9 22.9 7.8 1.4 6.1 16.4 7.0 13.3 13.3 14.5 4.5 42.3 44.5 57.6 34.9 1.9 91 15 52 15
Note: Some of the figures from FY2011 onwards are reclassified; hence not comparable with
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
ITC No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12