Solar Energy: Vol. 49, No, 3. pp, 167-174. 1992 Printed in the U,S.

0038-092X/92 $5.0(I + .00 Copyright ~, 1992 Pergamon Press Ltd.

TAG: A TIME-DEPENDENT, AUTOREGRESSIVE, GAUSSIAN MODEL FOR GENERATING SYNTHETIC HOURLY RADIATION
R. AGUIAR~ and M. COLLARES-PEREIRA *LNETI, Depanamento de Energias Renov~iveis,Estrada do Pa;odo Lumiar, 1699 Lisboa Codex, Portugal *CCE. Centre for the Conservation of Energy, Estrada de Alfragide, Praceta 1. 2700 Amadora. Portugal Abstract--A model is described which generates synthetic daily sequences of hourly radiation values, on the horizontal plane, for any location, with the daily clearness index Kt as input. The model assumes that for each Kt and solar hour the probability density of the hourly clearness index kl is (simply) a truncated Gaussian function. A first-order autoregressive model is fitted for the kt variable, normalised using parametrisations for the time-dependent average and standard deviation values. Values generated by this ARMA(1,0) model can then be transformed backwards to generate synthetic sequencesofk t values. Using a diffuse fraction correlation and a tilted radiation model, the horizontal global data can be transformed to any desired plane, thus providing solar system designers with the necessary hourly data for the accurate sizing of every type of solar system, including stand-alone, high solar fraction and passive ones.

I. I N T R O D U C T I O N

Generating synthetic radiation values is often the only practical way to obtain radiation data at a daily or hourly time scale. This is so because measured sequences of radiation values are available only for a small number of locations in each country or region-and even when they are available, problems usually arise from the need of tilted, instead of horizontal radiation data, or insufficient time length recorded or the existence of gaps in the records. Thus we see the importance of radiation models for the solar system designer. Radiation models are developed to generate sequences of values with the same statistical characteristics as those of sequences observed in Nature: probabilistic characteristics--average, variance, and so on, and probability density function--and sequential characteristics--essentially, the autocorrelation function. The output of the models can be used for the construction of Typical Meteorological Years or directly to provide synthetic data sequences with any desired length from inside computer algorithms, thus increasing computational speed and reducing storage space, and with the advantage of an adequate emulation of the natural climatic variability. Several authors have presented methods for generating synthetic daily radiation. Spectral models have been proposed; but although they can be sometimes useful for purposes such as data compression, the huge dependence of the model's coefficients and number of harmonics on the specific location rules them out for the purpose of generating synthetic data in places where only average monthly data is available. The most useful models are "universal," that is, designed to be independent of location and time of the year and they all model radiation as a Markov chain. They are either Auto-Regressive Moving Average

models (ARMA), perhaps with inverse Gaussian mapping [1], or Markov Transition Matrix (MTM) models [ 2 ]. Both take into account the sequential nature of solar radiation only up to the first order. For generating daily data, they use as sole input /~t, the monthly average of the daily clearness index, Kt, which is strongly correlated with average monthly insolation /-, as measured by simple Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders [3]. The wide availability of this type of monthly average data enables these models to be used almost anywhere. There are also a number of models available in the literature which generate sequences of the hourly clearness index k,, using Kt as input. Most of them have been constructed for specific places or regions, for example, by date of publication, for Singapore ([4], ARMA), for Italy ([5], MTM), for Athens, Greece ([6], spectral method), for Canada [7,8], for the USA[9] (both ARMA with inverse mapping), and for Spain ([10], MTM). The model from Graham and Hollands [7,8]--referred to here as GH model for short--is constructed to be universal; these authors make reference to other published hourly models that complete the list given above. Obtaining hourly or daily data on tilted planes is therefore possible, in principle, for any location. The overall scheme [1 I] runs like this: (a) using available [ values for a location, their related/~t values can be obtained; (b) synthetic daily data is generated from these daily values; (c) synthetic hourly global radiation data can then be generated; (d) the diffuse fraction of radiation for each hour is obtained [ 12 ]; and finally, (e) the values of global and diffuse radiation on the horizontal plane are transformed to the tilted plane under consideration [ 13,14 ]. How does the synthetic data resulting from such a string of five models, with just one first input [, compare with the observed tilted hourly data? Aguiar and 167

168

R. AGUIARand M. COLLARES-PEREIRA with kt,, =/qm (Kt, h) representing the average k~ value for each solar hour, h; $~ (Kt), the first-order autocorrelation coefficient; and r, a normally distributed random variable, r ~ ,/V(0, o). The authors proposed adequate correlations for ~, ktm and cr in such a way that the whole model depends only on Kt. Although the average and the variance of the synthetic/q data thus generated is correct, the comparison of observed and synthetic kt distributions shows that skewness and kurtosis are significatively different for the clearer months. This is a consequence ofthe mathematical nature of the ARMA type of models, which force the x or kt values to have a Gaussian distribution. Another unsatisfactory aspect is the overestimation of probability density values for kt above the probability peak. Such ARMA models frequently generate values above k~ or even greater than the extraterrestrial value kt = I; and a similar mirror situation exists for the k, = 0 boundary. To overcome these difficulties, two different approaches have been tried. The first approach uses Markov Transition Matrices ( M T M ) instead of ARMA models[5]. This technique indeed provides nonGaussian synthetic data, but the inspection of the MTM matrices constructed for different places does not show similar corresponding transition probability values. Some attempts have been made for solving this by normalising kt with k~[ 10 ], but the general character of such matrices still remains unproved. Besides, the number of coefficients involved ("transition probabilities") is very large, making these models somewhat difficult to manage. The second approach uses the technique of inverse Gaussian mapping by which the Gaussian variable is transformed into another variable with a desired final probability distribution. To preserve the "universal" character of a model, this final distribution P(kt; Kt) must be valid for any season and location. It must be mentioned that Knight[9] proposed to use P(kt;/(t) instead, that is, an expression depending of the monthly average Kt value (Knight used an expression fitted for U.S.A. locations, but several other parametrisations exist, e.g. [ 18,19 ] ). However, tests done by the authors with this kind of models were not encouraging for the use of this substitution, since the shape of the resulting synthetic distribution was not found to improve significatively in respect to pure Gaussian models. Thus, for the moment, the only available and useful expression for P(kt; Kt) is the one proposed by Graham and Hollands in [ 8 ]. A third approach for generating synthetic nonGaussian hourly radiation sequences will now be presented, which is believed to be more accurate and better suited to the present problem.

Collares-Pereira investigated this[l 1] and found good agreement for the main descriptive parameters: average, standard deviation, and autocorrelation. However, comparing PV simulation results using measured and using synthetic data, these authors found that currently available hourly radiation models were not suitable for designing systems with solar fractions greater than 0.9115]. That seemed to be caused by two main problems in the synthetic hourly data: (a) underestimation of peaks in the probability density functions, for K, values greater than about 0.45; and (b) significative percentage of synthetic values with kt greater than the clear-sky maximum, k~. In fact, correct values of average and variance alone can be enough to design many solar systems by way of correlations, but, for example, whenever there is a necessity for detailed simulations-as is the case for stand-alone PV or passive systems-the low synthetic values of skewness and "peakness" (kurtosis) seem unacceptable. Recent work aimed at understanding the behaviour ofhourly radiation within a day [ 6,16 ] has emphasised the fact that, for days with Kt > 0.45, the hourly kt sequences are not stationary and time-homogeneous-that is, that the kt distribution changes in accordance with the solar hour. This is essential information to take into account for a correct modelling of hourly radiation. The present paper is a practical application of these notions for the case of synthetic hourly radiation models. In section 2 a brief review is given on the current state-of-the-art in hourly radiation models; in section 3 a new Time-dependent, Autoregressive, Gaussian (TAG) model is proposed; it is then tested in section 4 by a comparison between the synthetic data it produces and independent observed data; a specific example is also presented to show its capacity for replacing real data for the design of PV systems, including those with very small loss-of-load probability values. Finally, section 5 will present conclusions and point some directions for further work. 2. HOURLY RADIATION MODELS The general structure of the best currently available hourly radiation models is similar to the one of daily radiation models. Both are based on the following simplifying hypothesis: ( H I ) only first-order autocorrelation effects exist ] 4,5,7,10]; (H2) for a certain location and season, the shape of the probability distribution is dependent only on the average value of the modelled variable [ 17,18 ]. This variable is usually the clearness index, or a linear transformation of it. "Universal" models[l,2,8] use a third hypothesis: (H3) the kt probability distribution depends neither on location or on season. The first version of the GH model [ 7 ] may be considered as a paradigm in the field of hourly radiation modelling. It is an autoregressive first-order model, ARMA(1,0), for the variable x = / q - ktm:
x(h) = dplX(h -

3. THE

TIME-DEPENDENT AUTOREGRESSIVE GAUS~SIAN(TAG) MODEL

! ) + r,

(1)

Most Markovian radiation models implicitly assume that the hourly kt distributions are similar for

A time-dependent, autoregressive, Gaussian model

169

.30<Ktx<.35

--.

4'6<Ktg'6
_ /

.~-J

# III\\I

Kt

Kt

i ~"

"LO<Kt('3~

~4

~/\/~

-0.5

O.l.y

~" 0.5

-0.,5

0.1.y

0.5

Fig. 1. Typical examples of probability density functions of k, and for the normalised variable )' = (k, ktm)o -'; (a) days with 0.30 < Kt < 0.35, for Coimbra ( 1978-89 ); (b) days with 0.60 < Kt < 0.65, for Evora (1981-89).

each solar hour h of a day. The GH model goes one step further: the distribution shape remains the same, but its mean, ktm(h), is parametrised; the influence of changes, for example, in the variance, is judged to be minor. In a recent work, Aguiar and Collares-Pereira[16] have checked the validity of this assumption by investigating in detail the/q distributions for each solar altitude angle h, (to be referred to afterwards as "elementary distributions"). Their results show that the variance of elementary distributions changes with solar time, a fact that is specially remarkable for daily K,

values above 0.45, and earlier/later hours of the day (see Fig. 1 ). They also pointed out that the shape of each elementary distribution is usually similar to a Gaussian curve, and proposed fits for the a(/q; K,, h) "surface" for the six locations selected in the study (Athens, Lisbon, Maputo, Trappes, Madrid, and Oviedo). This work suggests that really "universal" expressions for the daily distribution P(/q; Kt) would not be possible--since climate and latitude dependences should filter into the shape of the gt distribution, through the strong dependence of the elementary dis-

Table 1. Hourly radiation database Location/Country

For model building

Latitude 40.2N 41.8N 44. I N 38.6N 40.7N 38.0N 50.8N 40.2N 37.2N 38.9N 26.0S 43.4N 39.6N 48.8 oN

Years 1962-82 1980-86 1974-8 I 1981-89 1980-83 1976-79 1966-73 1978-89 1979-86 1975-88 1965-70 1976-83 1977-83 1974-81

Athens (Greece) Braganqa (Portugal) Carpentras (France) l~vora (Portugal) Madrid (Spain) Murcia (Spain) Uccle (Belgium)
For model validation

Coimbra (Portugal) Faro (Portugal) Lisbon (Portugal) Maputo (Mozambique) Oviedo (Spain) Paima Mallorca (Spain) Traplxs (France)

170

R. AGUIARand M. COLLARES-PEREIRA Therefore, the proposed ARMA(1,0) model will be:

y ( h ) = n y ( h - 1) + r

tributions on the altitude angle for high Kt values. Moreover, [ 16 ] also shows that, although there may be cancellation of the differences between the successive P(/q; Kt, h ) elementary functions~so that their average shape is close to the shape of the overall daily function P(/q; Kt)--this will not show when energy is taken into account, that is, from the point of view of a solar system (see also the end of section 4). Also, since Markov chain models only apply to stationary and time-homogeneous sequences[20], this work has shown the necessity to include stationing of /q in respect to variance, and not just in respect to average, in hourly radiation models. A universal model taking this new information into account will now be proposed. It was named TAG, for short, since it is nonstationary and time-inhomogeneous, that is, Timedependent, it is Autoregressive. and assumes Gaussian shapes for the elementary distributions. Because Gaussian functions extend indefinitely to either side ofthe mean value, they are truncated in the TAG model a i g o r i t h m ~ a t 0 and at some clear-sky maximum value k ~ - - s o that kt will stay within physically meaningful values. For most of the cases, this does not produce appreciable distortion ofthe Gaussian shape. And for those hours where it does--very high kt,, values and central hours of the day, or very low kt,, values and sunrise/sunset hours--the Gaussian hypothesis would not hold well anyhow, so that the asymmetries induced by the truncation really contribute to a better approximation of the observed distribution shapes. Since the kt variable is not stationary and time-homogeneous, a new variable y is defined by the usual normalisation procedure:
y(h) = kt(h)

(3)

where r is a random Gaussian variable with null average and standard deviation or' = ( 1 - 4~) '5. The function ~m(h, Kt), has already been studied by Graham and Hollands[7,8 ]. Collares-Pereira and Rabl[23] studied also a similar variable, the average hourly k, value for the days of a month with a certain average/(t, with the advantage of introducing a seasonai dependence in their analysis. These two parametrizations were tested against part of the database (see Table 1 ), and it was found that: (a) Although the Collares-Pereira and Rabl expression gives the correct daily ktm average, the observed/qm values do not follow a cosine-type evolution. In particular, there is a more definite plateau in the central hours; and (b) the GH parametrisation (built from Canadian data) generally does not fit the present European data, and this is most strikingly so for the range K, < 0.55: there, the observed average daily ktm profiles have a larger amplitude and no signs of the plateau characteristic of the GH model for low and medium solar altitude angles. Therefore, a new parametrisation was built for ktm based on the same formal expression used by the GH model: ktr,(h) = ~, + ~ . e x p { - K / s i n hs} (4)

ktm(Kt, h) ~(K,, h)
-

(2)

where ktm and ~r are the average hourly value and the standard deviation of k, for days with daily clearness index K,. Because kt is close to normally distributed, k,, and tr completely specify its distribution. Therefore, no further corrections or stationarizing steps should be necessary: y is a variable with all trends removed. Figure I shows the evolution of the kt distribution with the solar altitude and the corresponding distributions after normalisation as in eqn (2), for 0.30 < Kt < 0.35 and 0.60 < Kt -< 0.65. The radiation database to be used consists of 13 European locations and one African location [ 21,22 ]. It was divided in two parts, each with seven locations: one part for the purpose of building the model, and another for testing it independently (see Table l ). The sequential properties of the y variable have been studied (see Fig. 2) and it was concluded that its current hourly value shows only significative dependence on its value at the previous hour. The first-order autocorrelation coefficient, $~, was correlated with the daily Kt value with a cosine type relationship (see Appendix).

with ~, ~, and K functions of K, fitted against the database (Table I ). The standard deviation surface cr(K~, h) is fitted with an exponential-type equation, A. exp[B. ( 1 - sin h,)], and is represented in Fig. 3. The coefficient B is obtained from a fit to the raw data, but A is adjusted (underestimated) to compensate for departures of the k, distribution from the Gaussian shape. The values of the GH expression for a and of this new parametrisation are nearly equal for the range Kt < 0.45, but for the complementary range the current expression in-

Partial autocorrelation
0.6 ]-- _q--L .........

1
]

fit
t3 o o o o 13

1 sf." ~rcrer !
o c~ Q D ~ I

-0.2,_-

0.1

KI

0.8

Fig. 2. Average first- (U) and second-order (D) partial autocorrelation coefficients of the normalised variable Y versus daily K, (Athens). Lines show the observed RMS deviation of the estimates.

A time-dependent, autoregressive, Gaussian model

171

TAG model algorithm, with all the formulae and parametrizations involved, is described in the Appendix.
J

4. TESTING THE TAG RADIATION MODEL

"~ x/ ,-_,-----~

0.1

KL

0.a

Fig. 3. Exponential-type fit for the surface ~r(k,:Kt, h). troduces a significative dependence in the solar altitude
angle.

To recover the synthetic kt values from the sequence of y values, eqn (2) is inverted, that is, kt = ktm + oy. A practical computer algorithm should verify if any of the k, values of a daily sequence is greater than k~, and, if so, to start the procedure all over again, until this no longer happens. Crude clear-sky models [ 24 ], even with no seasonal dependence, were found sut~cient for the purpose. As usual in stochastic models, new trials must also be done when the synthetic daily Kt deviates from the (target) Kt value by more than a user-defined delta value. Care should also be taken to ensure that the daily sequences of r in eqn (3) possess averages reasonably close to 0. The remaining numerical variability is retained, with the purpose of emulating climatic variability. For the convenience of the reader, a typical

Two types of tests were made on the radiation data: (a) Computation of statistical properties of the radiation data---central moments and autocorrelation properties; and (b) simulation of the performance of a typical stand-alone PV system for a wide range of design parameters, transforming the horizontal data to the tilted plane of the collector surface. The results ofthe tests using the synthetic data generated by the TAG model (iterated with the observed daily Kt values as targets, deviations of up to 3% allowed ), and using the independent observed database, listed on Table 1, were then compared. In particular, the simulation results are of great practical importance, since errors in the synthetic horizontal global data can be amplified (or dampened) by the subsequent use of the diffuse and tilted radiation models. Practical implementation of the TAG algorithm has shown that rejections of daily synthetic sequences by the clear-sky test on k, are rare--about 5%. Four iterations are in average sut~cient to obtain a desired daily Kt value within a 3% error (against about eight for inverse Gaussian mapping models--this, with the fact that no g a m m a or err functions must be computed, makes the TAG model three times faster). Figure 4 shows typical overall observed and synthetic monthly probability functions of k,, for Trappes (cloudy climate) and Maputo (tropical climate); the agreement is improved when comparing with other

Mapufo - February
.5~

Maputo - July

.0

.c

,0

. . . . .

. . . .

O.

kt
-

1.

O. .2

kt Trappes
-

1. July

Trappes
.2

February

1 J
O. kt

.0

-----

oO

O.

kt

1.

1.

Fig. 4. Monthly probability density functions for Trappes and Maputo; ( I ) observed; ( ) from synthetic TAG data. Bars at the upper right corners show typical RMS errors for probability estimates.

172

R. AGUIARand M. COLLARES-PEREIRA be generated, there is no compensation in terms of energy, since extraterrestrial horizontal radiation is lower for these early/late hours than for those closer to noon. Figure 6 shows Winter and Summer performance maps (December-February and June-August) for various solar fraction levels of a stand-alone PV system under a constant load. The collector tilt is 45; the diffuse correlation used is the one due to Hollands [ 11]; and the tilted radiation model used is the simplified Perez model[l 3 ]. In the figure, the solar-to-load ratio SLR is proportional to the area of the collector. Successive curves (top/right to bottom/left) correspond to storage sizes M equivalent to 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 4, and 8 days of load. The vertical logarithmic axis displays the solar fraction as a percentage of the total season l o a d - - a common design parameter. The simulation's outputs with TAG data remarkably fit those simulations done with observed hourly global horizontal data. Solar system designers trying to find optimal SLR values for user-specified solar fractions can expect differences of less than 3% in their hourly simulations between using TAG and using observed data. This applies

models, most remarkably for clear months. The values of the central moments are generally very similar, although in some instances some underestimation of peakness will still occur. Figure 5, for Patina de Mallorca--a clear climate-is similar, but shows also the average of elementary functions for the six central solar hours of the day (10:00-15:00) and for the next six hours (7:00-9:00 and 16:00-18:00). The objective is to stress the importance of being nonstationary and of the accurate representation of the central rangemthe most important range of hours, because it is when most of the solar energy is received by nontracking solar systems. Setting from the problem of the accuracy of the parametrisations of the overall k, probability distribution, any model working with an average distribution or MTM matrix, will not perform as satisfactorily as the TAG model, specially for clearer months (the case of the GH model is shown). In fact, the average distribution models underestimate the peak of the central hours distribution and generate more of low k, values; and, although for the complementary range of hours a greater share of higher than observed kt values would

Palma - February . 2 All hours

Palma .3] All hours &

D_

July

.0 O.

'~,.
kt
]r

m
1.

.0]_..

. . . . . . . .

~=

O. .4

kt cenfral hours l I~

.2 6 cenfral
n

ft.

.0 O. . 2 Nexf 6 hours
4-

kt

1.

.0 - . , O.
31-N xt 6 / hours

kt

I.

.0 O. kt 1.

O.

kt

1.
) TAG model; (. )

Fig. 5. Probability density functions for Patina de Mallorca: (11) observed data; ( GH model. Overall and partial distributions shown.

A time-dependent, autoregressive, Gaussian model

173

,-,

100

PV

Performance

Winter

C') I 0.01

further improving the procedures for generating synthetic hourly data, at least for engineering purposes, this field still lacks a reference theoretical frame explaining some of the empirical parametrizations which integrate current hourly models; this theoretical frame might also shed some light on the properties of minute scale radiation data which are becoming available nowadays.

1 2 Solar to Load Ratio (T,)

Summer

REFERENCES
1. V. A. Graham, K. G. T. Hollands, and T. E. Ennui, A time series model for K, with application to global synthetic weather generation, Solar Energy 40, 83-92 ( 1988 ). 2. R. Aguiar and M. Collares-Pereira, A simple procedure for the generation of sequences of daily radiation values using Markov transition matrices, Solar Energ.v40, 269279 (1988). 3. G. Lewis, The utility of the Angstrom-type equation for the estimation of global radiation, Solar Energy 43, 297299 ( 1989 ). 4. T. Goh and K. Tan, Stochastic modelling and forecasting of solar radiation data, Solar Energy 19, 755 (1977). 5. C. Mustacchi, V. Cena, and M. Rocchi, Stochastic simulation of hourly global radiation sequences, Solar Energy 23, 47-51 (1979). 6. A. Balouktsis and Ph. Tsalides, Stochastic simulation model of hourly total solar radiation, Solar Energy 37, 119-126 (1986). 7. V. A. Graham, K. G. T. Hollands. and T. E. Unny. Stochastic variation of hourly solar radiation over the day, In Proceedings of the ISES Solar H'orld Congress 1987, Hamburg, Germany ( 1987 ). 8. V. A. Graham, K. G. T. Hollands, and T. E. Unny, Stochastic variation of hourly solar radiation over the day. In Prt~eedings Ofthe ISES Solar B~,rld ('ongress 1987, Hamburg, RFA (1987). 9. K. M. Knight, Deveh~pment and validation ola weather data generation model. Master thesis, Univ. WisconsinMadison (1988). 10. E. Palomo, Hourly solar radiation time series as firstorder Markov chains, In Proceedings of the ISES Solar H.'orld Congress 1989, Kobe, Japan ( 1989 ). I 1. R. Aguiar and M. Collares-Pereira, An hourly radiation model on tilted planes, In Proceedings olthe Solar "88, Annual Meeting ~# ASES. MIT. Boston, MA, USA (1988). 12. K. G. T. Hollands, A derivation of the diffuse fraction's dependence on the clearness index, Solar Enerqy 35, 131 136 (1985). 13. J. E. Hay, Stuc(v ~shortwave radiation on non-horizontal 5ttr/~lces. Rep. 79-12, Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview. Ontario (1979). 14. R. Perez, R. Seals, and R. Stewart. Modelling irradiance on tilted planes: A simpler version of the Perez model, In Proceedings of the/SEA" Solar World ('ongre.~ 1987, Hamburg, Germany (1987). 15. R. Aguiar and M. Collares-Pereira, Time series analysis, Project EUFRAT, Final Documents. Task 9 (1990). 16. R. Aguiar and M. Collares-Pereira, Statistical properties of hourly global radiation, Solar Energy 48, 157-167 ( 1991 ). 17. B. Liu and R. Jordan, The interrelationship and characteristic distribution of direct, diffuse and total solar radiation. Solar Energy 4, 1- 19 ( 1960 ). 18. J. Olseth and A. Skartveit, A probability density model for hourly total and beam irradiance on arbitrarily oriented planes, Solar Energy 39, 343-351 (1987). 19. K. Hollands and R. Huget, A probability density function for the clearness index, with applications, Solar Energy 30, 195-209 ( 1981 ).

--" 1 0 0 ~
lo

,_.PV

Performance

!
4')

%%

. . . . 0.1

I 0.01
_

(*)

Rellobilfof fy

a. 4. 1 2 Solar to Load Ratio (Z) b/plol grldl

Ilectrlclfy

Fig. 6. Performance of a typical PV system simulated with hourly data (Palma de Mallorca): (1:3) observed; ( ) synthetic TAG data. M: storage size in days of load.

to the whole practical range of collector areas and battery sizes--and even for loss-of-load probabilities lower than those inherent to typical electricity grids.

5. CONCLUSIONS A new model for the generation of synthetic sequences of hourly horizontal global radiation has been presented. It takes into account that the daily kt sequences are not stationary and time-homogeneous, meaning that the probability distribution of/q changes with the solar hour, and not only with the daily clearness index Kt. The hourly clearness index is considered to be normally distributed for each hour, thus it is possible to construct an A R M A ( 1 , 0 ) model for a normalised variable, with no need for a posteriori correction procedures for taking into account the observed shapes of kt probability distributions. This Time-dependent Autoregressive Gaussian ( T A G ) model, parametrised just by the daily Kt value, reproduces with success the observed monthly kt distributions, and in particular their first four central moments. Tests using the synthetic T A G data to simulate the performance of typical PV systems have also been successful. It is therefore considered that this type of data can replace measured tilted hourly radiation data for any case of solar system design. Although there seems to remain little interest in

174

R. AGUIAR and M. COLLARES-PEREIRA of solar radiation---correlations between diffuse and hemispherical and between daily and hourly insolation values, Solar Energy 22, 155 (1979). 24. J. K. Page, Ed., Prediction of Solar Radiation on Inclined Surfaces, Solar Energy R&D in the European Community, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, Series F, Vol. 3. (1986).

20. G. Box and G. Jenkins, Time series analysis, Hoiden Day, New York ( 1971 ). 21. lnstituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Geofisica, Rua C do Aeroporto de Lisboa, 1700 Lisboa, Portugal. 22. B. Bourges (Ed.), E U F R A T climatic data handbook, ARMINES, Paris (1990). 23. M. Collares-Pereira and A. Rabl, The average distribution

APPENDIX: THE TAG MODEl, This model generates synthetic daily sequences of the hourly clearness index kt. A detailed (but not optimised) example of implementation follows. Define a di value for allowed deviations between the observed and synthetic daily clearness index values, Kt and K~, say 3%. If only monthly Kt or insolation average values are available, you m a y consider using a model to generate a synthetic Kt sequence[2]. Then, for each day, C o m p u t e the sunrise/sunset hour angle ~,d24], and the autocorrelation Cj, ~ = 0.38 + 0.06 cos(7.4Kt - 2.5) (AI) o' = tr( 1 - ~ ) o . s and, for each solar hour h ( I to 24), compute: I. The solar hour angles for the start, centre, and end of the hour: ~oj -- (h - 13)d~, ~ = (h - 12.5)dto, ~ 2 = (h - 12), with d~ = x / 1 2 , and the corresponding solar altitude angle h , ( ~ ) [ 2 4 ] . Step to next hour ifw2 < -o~,, or 00~ > ~,,; 2. The clear-sky k~(h) value. It can be obtained from a model adequated to the specific location[24], but most of the time it was sufficient to use just (A5) = +.32 - 1 . 6 0 ( K t - .50) 2 ,~ = +.19 + 2.27K~ - 2.51Kt3 4. The standard deviation a; ,r(Kt h,) = A . e x p ( B . ( 1 - sin hs)} A = .14 exp{ - 2 0 ( K t - .35 )2} B = 3 . ( K t - .45) 2 + 16. Kt5 (A4a) (A4b) (A4c) (A3c) (A3d)

5. A random Gaussian n u m b e r r with null average and a standard deviation

for example, pick a random n u m b e r z from a uniform distribution in [0, 1] and apply the transformation r = a ' . [ z l~s - (1 - z)J3Sl/.1975 (A6)

6. The normalised variable y a n d the synthetic clearness index kt, y ( h ) = e~y(h - 1 ) + r k, = k,m + ,~y (A7) (A8)

k~(h) = 0.88 cos{ r ( h - 12.5)/30}

3. The average clearness index ktm; kt,, = X + ~ . e x p { - x / s i n hs}, ~, = - . 1 9 + 1.12Kt + . 2 4 . e -Sx'

(A2)

(A3a) (A3b)

If [K; - Kt[/Kt > 6, or if k,(h) < 0 or k,(h) > k~ for some h, iterate again from step 5. Obtain the global hourly radiation values multiplying/q(h) by the extraterrestrial radiation values: go on to the next day.