MP2006-Math 3 PROBABILITY THEORY Tutorial Solutions

1.

(a) (i) 2, 3, 4, 5, 12 = 11 outcomes (ii) (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (6,6) = 36 outcomes (iii)
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, 15, 16, 18, 20, 24, 25, 30, 36 = 18 outcomes
(b) only (ii) has equally likely outcomes and allows to use the first theorem for the
definition of probability
(c) S: (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (2,1), (2,2) (3,1), (6,6) (note the presence of (1,2) and
(2,1), etc) ; A: (1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6) ; B: (4,6), (6,4), (5,5) (5,6), (6,5),
(6,6) ; C: (1,6), (6,1), (2,5), (5,2), (3,4), (4,3) ; D: (1,1), (1,3), (3,1), (1,5), (5,1), (2,2),
(2,4), (4,2), (2,6), (6,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (4,4), (4,6), (6,4), (5,5), (6,6)
(d) E and F are not mutually exclusive because E={(1,2), (2,1), (1,5), (5,1), (2,4), (4,2),
(3,3), (3,6), (6,3), (4,5), (5,4), (6,6)} and F={(1,3), (3,1), (2,2), (2,6), (6,2), (3,5), (5,3),
(4,4), (6,6)} have one element in common E F = {(6,6)} .

2.

3.

The sample space has 5x5x5=125 outcomes that are equally likely:
S={(1,1,1), (1,1,2), (1,1,3),. (5,5,5)}
The compliment events Ec the sum of the three chips is smaller or equal to 4 has only
4 outcomes: Ec = {(1,1,1), (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1)}
We are in a case (i.e. finite number of equally likely outcomes) where we can use the
first definition of probability, thus P(Ec) = 4/125 and from the compliment theorem we
get : P(E) = 1 - P(Ec) = 1 - 4/125
Let Ai (i = 1, 2, 3, 4) be the event that the ith IC fails, then

P( Ai ) = 0. 03 (i = 1, 2, 3, 4)
Let B be the event that the apparatus fails, then
Bc = A1c I A2c I A3c I A4c
P( Bc ) = P( A1c I A2c I A3c I A4c ) = P( A1c ) P( A2c ) P( A3c ) P( A4c )

since these events are independent.

P( Bc ) = ( 1 0. 03) 4 = 0. 97 4
P( B) = 1 P( Bc ) = 1 0. 97 4 .

4.

Let A be the event of drawing a defective fuse the first time,

B be the event of drawing a defective fuse the second time, then
P( A) = 0. 02, P( B) = 0. 02

(a) Let C be the event of getting no defectives, then

C = Ac I Bc P(C ) = P( Ac I Bc ) = P( Ac ) P( Bc ) = ( 1 0. 02) 2 = 0. 98 2

(b) Let D be the event of getting one defectives, then

D = ( A c I B) U ( A I B c ) P ( D) = P ( A c I B ) + P( A I B c )
P( D) = P( Ac ) P( B) + P( A) P( Bc ) = 2 0. 98 0. 02

(c) Let E be the event of getting two defectives, then

E = A I B P( E ) = P( A) P( B) = 0. 02 0. 02 = 0. 02 2

The sum of these probabilities is 1.

5(a)

The event C: two rods of the desired length.

100 99
= 9900 outcomes.
The sample space S has
1 1
50 49
The event C has = 2450 outcomes.
1 1
P( C ) = 2450 / 9900 = 24. 75% .
Alternative method:
Let A: the first rod drawn is of desired length,
B: the second rod drawn is of desired length.
Then event C: two rods of the desired length becomes C = A I B .

Q P( A) = 50 / 100 , P( B| A) = 49 / 99 ,
P( C ) = P( A I B) = P( B| A) P( A) = 49 / 99 50 / 100 = 24. 75% .

5(b)

The event C: one of the desired length.

100 99
= 9900 outcomes.
The sample space S has
1 1
The event C has
50 50
50 50
(the first defective) + (the second defective) = 5000 outcomes.
1 1
1 1
P( C ) = 5000 / 9900 = 50. 5% .

5(c)

The event C: none of the desired length.

100 99
= 9900 outcomes.
The sample space S has
1 1
50 49
The event C has = 2450 outcomes.
1 1
P( C ) = 2450 / 9900 = 24. 75% .

5(d)

The event C: two undersized rods.

100 99
= 9900 outcomes.
The sample space S has
1 1
25 24
The event C has = 600 outcomes.
1 1
P( C ) = 600 / 9900 = 6. 06% .
6.

Every time we throw two dices we have 35/36 to not have a pair of 6.Thus after n
throws (independent events) the probability that we did not get a pair of 6 is (35/36)n.
Thus the probability to get a pair of six after n throws is P(n) = 1 (35/36)n.
The Knight want to know for which n we have P(n)>0.5, thus:
P (n ) > 0.5 1 (35 / 36 ) n > 0.5 (35 / 36) n < 0.5 n ln(35 / 36 ) < ln 0.5
n > ln 0.5 / ln(35 / 36) n > 24.6
(note ln(35/36)<0, thus the sign of the inequality is inverted when we divide)
Thus the Knight has to throw the dices 25 times to have more chance to win than to
loose!

7.

Define: D0 = getting a drawer with 0 gold D1 = getting a drawer with 1 gold D2 =

getting a drawer with 2 gold G0 = getting 0 gold coin G1 = getting 1 gold coin.
P ( D2 G1 ) = P (G1 \ D2 ) P ( D2 ) = 1 1 = 1
3 3
1
1 1 1 1
P (G1 ) = P( D1 G1 ) + P( D2 G1 ) = P ( D1 ) P (G1 \ D1 ) + = + =
3
3 2 3 2
We are interested in P(D2 \ G1):
P ( D2 G1 )
P ( D2 \ G1 ) =
= (1/3)/(1/2) = 2/3
P(G1 )

8.

Define:
C = helicopter crashes
B0 = helicopter hit by 0 bullet,
B1 = helicopter hit by 1 bullet
B2 = helicopter hit by 2 bullet
B3 = helicopter hit by 3 bullet

P (C ) = P( B0 C ) + P( B1 C ) + P( B2 C ) + P( B3 C )
= P ( B1 ) P(C \ B1 ) + P ( B2 ) P(C \ B2 ) + P( B3 ) P(C \ B3 )
= 0.2 P( B1 ) + 0.6 P( B2 ) + P( B3 )
P ( B1 ) = (0.4)(0.5)(0.3) + (0.6)(0.5)(0.3) + (0.6)(0.5)(0.7)
P ( B2 ) = (0.4)(0.5)(0.3) + (0.4)(0.5)(0.7) + (0.6)(0.5)(0.7)
P ( B3 ) = (0.4)(0.5)(0.7)

9.

We have a finite number of equally likely outcomes and may use the first definition of
probability, P = nb of favorable cases/total nb of cases.
5
.
The total number of hands of 5 cards than we can get from a set of 52 cards is C52
(i) the number of hands of 5 cards that we can get with 4 aces is 48 : the fifth card can
5
be any of the 48 remaining cards. Thus the probability is: P = 48 / C52
= 0.0018%
(ii) the number of hands of 5 cards having at least one king will be obtain by looking at
the compliment event, hands having no king. The number of hands having no king
5
5
5
is C 48
, thus the number of hands having at least one king is: C 52
C 48
. Thus the
5
5
5
C 48
C 52
C 48
=
1

= 34%
5
5
C 52
C 52
(note: we may also look at the compliment event probability which gives the same
result)

probability of the event is: P =

10.

No. of ways to select 3 out of 13 letters = 286

P(getting 2 Bs) =11/286; P(getting only 2 I s) =310/286, P(getting 3 I s) =1/286
the probability of choosing at least two letters which are the same:
11 3 10
1
21
+
+
=
286 286 286 143

11.

12.

(i) 11 outcomes possible:

H=
0
1
2
3
4
T=
10
9
8
7
6
H-T = 10 -8
-6
-4
-2
(ii) 1000, -998, -996, .. 998, 1000

5
5
0

6
4
2

7
3
4

8
2
6

9
1
8

10
0
10

(a) the outcomes are: -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 4

(b) P( X = 2) = C82 / C142 = 0.3077 : both balls are white

P( X = 1) = C 21C81 / C142 = 0.1758 : 1 white 1 orange

P( X = 0) = C 22 / C142 = 0.01099 : both balls are orange
P ( X = 1) = C81C 41 / C142 = 0.3516 : 1 white 1 black
P ( X = 2) = C 41C 21 / C142 = 0.0879 : 1 black 1 orange
P ( X = 4) = C 42 / C142 = 0.0659 : both balls are black
(note that the sum of the probability is 1)
(c) The mean value of X is:

E ( X ) = X = p i x i =0.3077 2 + 0.1758 1 + 0.0199 0 + 0.3516 1 + 0.0879 2 + 0.0659 4 = 0

i

13.

Let X be the amount of dollars a person wins, then X has the possible values of:
X
100
200 300
400
100n
with the corresponding probabilities (independent events) of
p

1/8
1/16
(1/2)n
Hence the mean winning is:

n =1

n =1

E ( X ) = X = pi x i = (1/ 2) n 100n = 100 n 2 n = 200 dollars

i

One would be willing to play this game for 150$ since on the long run, he will be
winning in the average 50$ per time he plays.
14(i)

f ( x)dx = 1 .

By definition,

k 3
k
2
0 kx dx = 1 3 x =1 3 = 1 k = 3 .
0
1

14(ii)
P( X c1 ) = 1 f ( x)dx = 0 1 3 x 2 dx = x 3
c

c1
0

= c13

P( X c1 ) = 0.1 c13 = 0.1 c1 = 0.464

P( X c2 ) = 2 f ( x)dx = 0 2 3 x 2 dx = x 3
c

c2
0

= c 23

P( X c1 ) = 0.9 c 23 = 0.9 c2 = 0.965

15.
+

= 0 x f ( x)dx = 0 x
+

1 +
ex / 5
dx = 0 xe x / 5 dx
5
5
+

= 0 xe x / 5 d ( x / 5) = 0 x de x / 5

= 5e x / 5 0

= 0+ e x / 5 dx

=5
+

2 = 0 ( x ) 2 f ( x)dx = 0 ( x 5) 2
Let u = x / 5 , then x = 5u, dx = 5du ,

ex / 5
dx
5

2 = 0 ( x 5) 2

+
+
ex / 5
dx = 250 (u 1) 2 e u du = 250 (u 1) 2 d e u
5

= 25 (u 1) 2 e u

+
2 0 (u 1)e u du

= 25 1 + 2 0 (u 1)de u
= 25 1 + 2(u 1)e u

= 25 1 + 2 + 2e u

+
2 0 e u du

= 25

P ( X + 3 ) = P ( X 5 + 3 5) = P ( X 20)
= 0

20

16.

1 x / 5
e dx = e x / 5
5

20
0

= e 20 / 5 + 1 = 1 e 4 = 98.17%

Binomial distribution with p = 0.1,n = 10 ,

Let A: hit the target at least once, then
Ac becomes none of the 10 shots hits the target.

10
P ( A c ) = p 0 (1 p )10 = (1 p )10 = 0.910 = 0.3487
0
P ( A) = 1 P ( A c ) = 1 0.3487 = 0.6513 = 65.13% .
Let B: hit the target at least twice,
10
1
10
10
P ( B ) = p k (1 p )10k = 1 p k (1 p )10 k
k =2 k
k =0 k

= 1 0.910 10 0.1 0.9 9 = 26.39%

17.

Binomial distribution with p = 0. 95, n = 100, q = 0. 05 .

98 100
100 100

x 100 x

x 100 x
p q
p q
P( X 98) =
= 1
x =1 x
x =99 x

100 99 10099
p q
= 1
99

100 100 0
p q

100

= 1 100 0.9599 0.05 0.95100 = 96.29%

18.

Binomial distribution with p = 0.03,n = 50,q = 0.97 .

50
P( X = x) = f ( x) = p x q 50 x
x
When n becomes large, binomial distribution approaches Poissons
distribution with = np = 50 0. 03 = 1. 5 .
50
x 1.5 x 1.5
P( X = x) = f ( x) = p x q 50 x
e =
e .
x!
x!
x

19.

We have a binomial distribution with p=4 10-6 and n=500,000. Since n is very large
(and p small) we may approximate it with a Poissons distribution with mean =n
p=500,000 4 10-6 =2.
2 k 2
P( X = k ) =
e
k!
Thus:
4
2 0 21 2 2 2 3 2 4
2k
= 7e 2 = 94.7%
P ( X 4) = e 2 = e 2
+
+
+
+
k =0 k!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
This problem can also be approximated by normal distribution.

20.

5 3 .6
(a) P ( X > 5) = 1 P ( X 5) = 1 F (5) = 1
0%
0 .1
(b) (i) the distribution is symmetric around the mean, thus c==3.6.
(ii) P ( X > c ) = 0.1 1 P ( X c ) = 0.1 P ( X c ) = 0.9 F (c ) = 0.9
c 3 .6
c 3 .6
1.28 c 3.728

= 0 .9
0 .1
0 .1
(iii) P (3.6 c < X < 3.6 + c ) = F (3.6 + c ) F (3.6 c ) = (10c ) ( 10c )
= (10c ) 1 + (10c ) = 2(10c ) 1 = 0.999
Thus (10c ) = 0.9995 and 10c=3.27 thus c = 0.327
(note: this answer correspond to the normal table given in the lecture (4 digits
accuracy) a more exact answer is c=0.3291 and is given in the answers at the end of the
tutorials. Sorry for the mess)