Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model

DSS for EN River Basin powered by RIBASIM Wil N.M. van der Krogt, Henk J.M. Ogink For 5th ENPM Regional Workshop, Cairo, Egypt 8 December 2012
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Deltares Delft the Netherlands - Europe

Deltares

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Project aim
1. To build a flexible "Eastern Nile Water Simulation Model (ENWSM) based on RIBASIM7" 2. To carry out a simulation analysis of the EN basin for a number of identified scenarios, measures and strategies on critical EN issues like water infrastructure development and climate change. 3. To build modeling capacity at ENTRO by classical and on-the-job training. Target to finish December 2012

RIBASIM training ENTRO, Addis Ababa, Jun and Sep 2012

1 januari 2008

RIBASIM Version 7.01

RIBASIM has been developed and fine-tuned since 1985 at Deltares | Delft Hydraulics in the course of many projects. RIBASIM has been applied in more than 30 countries world-wide and is used by a wide range of national and regional agencies. Countries where the model has been applied include Argentina, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, Central Asian republics (Aral Sea catchment), Chile, China, Czech, Egypt, Equatorial Lakes, Ethiopia, Greece, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Kenya, Lesotho, Malaysia, Mali, Mongolia, Morocco, Nepal, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Senegal, Sudan, Taiwan, Tobago, Trinidad, Turkey, Ukraine, Vietnam, The Netherlands. RIBASIM is a general applicable software and is used in large complex river basin management and planning studies

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Introduction R I B A S I M

Simulation in time of :

Overall basin management

Water demand Available water

Infrastructure and its operation

shortages / allocation

water allocation

energy production
reservoir levels delivery reliability etc.

Why balance: the Water Balancing Act Supply

Quantity (Natural Scarcity,
Groundwater Depletion)

Quality Degradation Cost of Options

Demand
Population growth Increased welfare Inefficient use

Nile

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On short / long term

Squeezing the Nile

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Raw data

Collect and validate the available unstructured data from: ENTRO staff, ENTRO library (untouched reports), public domain and internet
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ENWSM characteristics
ENWSM covers the catchments of the main EN basins, including the Blue Nile, BaroAkobo-Sobat, Tekeze-SetitAtbara, portions of the White Nile and the Main Nile upstream of HAD incl. Lake Nasser.

Simulation time step: months Covers all users in the EN basin, all present and potential infrastructure

Nile River basin

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Catchment schematization
EN catchment schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) based on a DEM (ENTRO GIS data base) and location of: Dams (E, P) Irrigation intakes (E, P)
Recording stations

Runoff time series have been prepared and is available for all 162
catchments for period 1900-2002.
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Metema st.

Rahad dam (P)

Tekeze dam

Deim st.
Chara Chara st. Renaissance Dam (P)

Mendaia Up and Down Dam (P)

Kessie st. Karadobi Dam (P)

Mabil Dam (P)

Beko Abo Dam (P)

DSGuder st.

Zoom in on catchment schematization near Lake Tana and Abay Blue Nile
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Catchment area
EN catchment area (km2) and average annual catchment runoff (Mcm) per country: Ethiopia South Sudan Sudan Total 496,961 (22 %) 957,800 (42 %) 845,312 (36 %) 2,300,073 km2 80,106 (80%) 16,941 (17 %) 3,376 ( 3 %) 100,422 Mcm

1. Some catchments may cover 2 countries and are not split-up. 2. Inflow at Mongalla 35,805 Mcm is excluded.
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Network schematization

Complete EN network schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) with map

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Network schematization: rivers

Rahad

Main Nile

Atbara
Gash

White Nile Blue Nile Bahr El Ghazal

Dinder Setit Tekeze Abay Baro

Sobat Pibor Bahr El Jebel Agweri Gilo

Akobo

Complete EN network schematization for ENWSM (RIBASIM7) without map: Rivers and canals only
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Network schematization: lakes and swamps

Lake Nasser

Machar Ghazal

Lake Tana

Sudd

ENWSM network schematization of present situation

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Network schematization: recording stations

Lake Nasser Abu Hamed K3 Khartoum Diem Bahir Dar Border Embamadre

Malakal

Kessie Bure

Hillet Doleib

Shogole

Gambela

ENWSM network schematization of present situation (42)

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EN network schematization
Infrastructure: All rivers in: Baro-Akobo-Sobat-White Nile basin (Bahr El Jebel and Ghazal) Abay-Blue Nile basin Tekeze-Setit-Atbara basin Main Nile basin 2 Lake: Tana and Nasser 3 Swamps: Sudd, Ghazal and Machar 111 Dams: 11 existing and 100 under-construction or (known) potential 6 Run-of-river hydro-power stations: 2 existing and 4 potential 42 Recording stations 3 Potential by-pass canals for Ghazal, Sudd (Jonglei Canal) and Machar swamps

Users and losses: 114 Irrigation areas: 18 existing and 96 potential 5 DMI water use Evaporation and other losses

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Hydrology: monthly time series

Big effort to get the series complete and consistent:
Actual and effective rainfall based on ERA40 daily rainfall 19612000 from ECMWF, gridded rainfall data. Evaporation and evapotranspiration based on FAO-data base (CLIMWAT). Lake Tana water balance based on evaporation, outflow and storage change data and ENTRO inflow records. River flow (runoff) based on historical (natural) flows at Bahir Dar, Kessie, Guder DS, Deim, Roseires, Dinder at mouth, Rahad at mouth, Khartoum & Soba, Gambela, Hillet Doleib, Malakal, K3, data from Norplan and Nile Control staff.
Monthly time series from 1900 till 2002 (103 years)

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Model verification at var. locations, 1900-2002

Model verification, Atbara at K3, Period 1900-2002, annual flows

25,000
Natural Simulated

Model verification, Main Nile at Aswan, Period 1900-2002

140,000

120,000

20,000

100,000
Annual flow (Mm3)

15,000

Annual flows (Mm3)

80,000

10,000

60,000

40,000

Natural Simulated

5,000
20,000

0 1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

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2000

2010

0 1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Model verification, var. locations, monthly flow statistics

Model verification, Atbara at K3, Period 1900-2002

5,000
24,000 22,000
Mean observed

Model verification, Main Nile at Aswan, Period 1900-1932, monthly flow statistics

4,500

Mean Natural Mean Simulation x = 0.3 Mean Simulation x = 0.4 Stdv Natural Stdv Simulation x = 0.4

4,000
Monthly mean and standard deviation (Mm 3)

Stdv observed Mean simulated

20,000
Monthly mean and standard deviation (Mm 3)

3,500

Stdv simulated

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

2,000 0

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

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Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Irrigation water demand and supply

Advanced irrigation node: agriculture water demand, water allocation, crop yield and crop production modeling (DelftAGRI) based on:
various crops, crop characteristics, crop and yield response factors crop (cultivation) plan reference crop evapotranspiration dependable and actual rainfall irrigation and agriculture practise soil types pre-saturation requirement seepage and percolation losses water allocation to crops within the irrigation area by priority root zone soil moisture water balance survival fraction on field level, the crop yield on field and farm gate level and crop production costs.

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Crops
22 crops defined (as used in the ENID Study):
1. Rice 2. Cotton 3. Sorghum Teff 4. Onion 5. Wheat 6. Groundnut 7. Sugar Cane 8. Field peas 9. Lentils 10. Barley 11. Sunflower Noug Sesame 12. Soy Beans 13. Potatoes 14. Tobacco 15. Maize 16. Castor Beans 17. Red Pepper 18. Ginger 19. Coffee 20. Fruits 21. Grapes 22. Sudan Grass

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Crop plan in base case 2012

Ethiopia

Sudan

Standard crop plans per country based on FAO data

Toshka
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Dams and reservoirs

Surface water reservoir geometry incl. one or more backwater gates

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Dams and reservoirs

Operation of surface water reservoir
Determined by : actual water volume in the reservoir hydrological in- and output : actual rainfall, open water evaporation, seepage, inflow downstream release targets (main, backwater and turbine gates) for: non-hydro power releases like irrigation, domestic water supply, flushing, etc via the main or backwater gates firm hydro energy release targets gate capacities reservoir operation rules: flood control, maximum energy production, firm and hedging storage

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Setup of ENWSM
All annual and multiple year time series
Historical hydrological data 1900 - 2002

ENWSM
(based on RIBASIM7)

Result files Result files Results

Model data base 2012

Base case 2012 : present situation

Stores network schematization, node and link characteristics, priorities for water allocation, etc
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Socio-economic scenarios

Land-use and Land-use and population data population data Land-use and 2010 - 2050 2010 - 2050 population data 2012 - 2050

Agriculture sector data Agriculture sector data Crop plan data

Agriculture sector scenarios

Historical hydrological data 1900 - 2002

ENWSM
(based on RIBASIM7)

Result files Result files Results

Model data base 2012

Climate change scenarios

Climate change data files Climate change data files Change of hydrological data

Measure and strategy data files Measure and strategy data files Measure and strategy data

Interventions, management actions

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Scenarios and management actions

Distinction among:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Hydrological scenarios Socio-economic scenarios Agriculture sector scenarios Climate change scenarios Management actions which consists of combination of measures: Irrigation measures Hydro-power measures Other measures To prepare explicitly

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Scenarios
Hydrological scenario: historical time series
ID T002 T003 Scenario name ENWSM time series (103 years : 1900-2002) Atbara Fraction ENWSM time series (103 years : 1900-2002) Atbara Regression (the best)

Climate change scenario: variation on the hydrological scenario

ID C000 Scenario name No hydrological data change

C001
C002 C003 C004

Climate change (+3%)

Climate change (-3%) Climate change (+5%) Climate change (-5%)

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Scenarios
Agriculture sector scenario: alternative crop plan for irrigation areas
ID
A000 A001

Scenario name
No agriculture sector scenario (crop plan) defined High crop intensity (Ethiopia)

Remarks
Crop plan of the 2012 model database is used. Crop plan with 180% crop intensity for Ethiopia according to ENID study for Lake Tana

Land-use and population scenarios: change in DMI demand

ID
D000 D001

Scenario name
No land-use and population scenario defined 2030 best estimate of population/cattle growth

Remarks
Population number of the 2012 model database is used +25%

D002

2030 high estimate of population/cattle growth

+40%

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I-measures
Irrigation development measures (12 feasible ENIDS projects):
1. Gumera, 6 sub-projects of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et) 2. Ribb, 4 sub-projects of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et) 3. Megech pumping and gravity of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et) 4. Neshe irr. Project (Et) 5. Arjo Didessa River project of the Didessa irr. Project (Et) 6. Negeso River project of the Didessa irr. Project (Et) 7. Angar of the Angar-Nekemte irr. Project (Et) 8. El Rahad Phase II irr. Project (Su) 9. Upper Beles of the Tana Beles irr. Project (Et) 10. Great Kenana irr. Project (Su) 11. Humera irr. Project

12. Rumela and Upper Atbara irr. development Projects (Su)

13. Lower Beles irrigation area 14. Upper Dinder irrigation area

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H-measures
Hydro-power and other development measures:
1. Karadobi dam (Et) 2. Beko Abo Low dam (Et) 3. Beko Abo High dam (Et) 4. Mandaya dam (Et) 5. Mandaya Upper dam (Et) 6. Renaissance dam with FSL 620 m (under construction, Et) 7. Renaissance dam with FSL 640 m (under construction, Et) 8. Upper Beles Dam (Et) 9. Heightening Roseires Dam on 490 m (present 481 m) (Su) 10. Rumela and Burdana dams (under construction, Su) 11. Jonglei Canal (Ss)

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Management actions
ID
M000 M001

Name
No management actions. Base line, current condition. Renaissance640 Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. High Roseires + Kenana irr. Abbay dams cascade A of Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance620. Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. High Roseires + Kenana irr. Abbay dams cascade B of Karadobi - Beko Abo Low - Madaya Upper - Renaissance dam640 Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. High Roseires + Kenana irr. Abbay dams cascade C of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya + Renaissance620 Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. High Roseires + Kenana irr.

M002

M003

M004

M005

Abbay dams cascade D of Beko Abo High (1062) + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance640 Beles dam + Dinder and Beles irr. High Roseires + Kenana irr.
Set all irrigation, public water supply and infrastructure nodes on inactive except Lake Tana.
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M501

ENWSM operation
Simulation case management by flow chart of actions

Select scenarios and measures

Design network schematization and fill model data

Analyze results (map, chart, report)

Define simulation period

Simulate

Drop-down menu list

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Simulation cases
Verification case Hydrological scenario T003 on All other scenarios off Management action G501 on : all infrastructure and all users inactive Aim to calibrate and verify the flows in the network at the recording stations Base case (S000): present 2012 situation Hydrological scenario T003 on All other scenarios off No management action Aim to reproduce the present situation

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Illustrative simulation cases

Selection of scenarios and management actions ID
S001 Renaissance S002 Abay Cascade A: Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya + Renaissance 620 S003 Abay Cascade B: Karadobi + Beko Abo Low + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance 640 S004 Abay Cascade C: Beko Abo High + Mandaya + Renaissance 620 S005 Abay Cascade D: Beko Abo High + Mandaya Upper + Renaissance 640 S006 Renaissance High demand

ID Hyd+Clim+SocEc+ Agr+ManAct
T003+C000+D000+A000+M001 T003+C000+D000+A000+M002 T003+C000+D000+A000+M003 T003+C000+D000+A000+M004 T003+C000+D000+A000+M005 T003+C502+D002+A001+M001

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ENWSM results characteristics

Tool to analyse the consequences of infrastructure developments (measures, interventions) and climate change in terms like the inflow into Lake Nasser the flow regime at any location eg. Deim, the reliability of supply to all water users in the Nile countries, the water use in the various Nile countries for irrigation, hydropower, drinking water, livestock, domestic, municipal and industrial use, the evaporation from swamps, reservoirs and rivers, the hydro-power production (firm and secondary), the size of the swamps (wetlands, marshes). the spilling to Toshka valleys .

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Example and preliminary model results

Tables: Summary output tables with water supply reliability Annual overall basin water balances tables Irrigation- and DMI consumption, evaporation losses per country Graphs: all computed parameters for each node, link and overall basin Overall basin water balance over time Demand, supply and shortage for irrigation, DMI, losses Actual and dependable flows at any location in the basin Reservoir, lake and swamp water balances over time Water balance for each node over time Map presentation: all parameters as under the graphs option Map animation: flow thru the network over time

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Example and preliminary model results

Aswan recording station (inflow Lake Nasser)
12,500 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 12/29/1907 12/27/1915 12/25/1923 12/23/1931 12/21/1939 12/19/1947 12/17/1955 12/15/1963 12/13/1971 12/11/1979 12/9/1987 12/7/1995

Avg annual natural flow 86.1 Bcm

Simulated flow (m3/s)

Monitored flow (m3/s)

Malakal recording station

2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 12/29/1907 12/27/1915 12/25/1923 12/23/1931 12/21/1939 12/19/1947 12/17/1955 12/15/1963 12/13/1971 12/11/1979 12/9/1987 12/7/1995

Simulated flow (m3/s)

Monitored flow (m3/s)

Verification case: Nile natural flow, no structures and no users, check recorded and simulated river flows at the 42 recording stations (1900-2002)
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Graph for location Total basin (Mcm)

44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 12/30/1900 12/30/1901 12/30/1902 12/30/1903 12/29/1904 12/29/1905 12/29/1906 12/29/1907 12/28/1908 12/28/1909

Base case
Total basin water balance over time

In :Vif Variable inflow Total basin (Mcm) In :Rsv Storage decrease Total basin (Mcm) In :Lnk Storage decrease Total basin (Mcm)
Overall basin water balance

In :Rsv Rainfall Total basin (Mcm) In :Lnk Rainfall Total basin (Mcm) In :Gwr Return flows to gw of prev.ts Total basin (Mcm)

Sources

Graph for location Total basin (Mcm)

44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 6/30/1900 12/29/1900 6/29/1901 12/28/1901 6/28/1902 12/27/1902 6/27/1903 12/26/1903 6/25/1904 12/24/1904 6/24/1905 12/23/1905 6/23/1906 12/22/1906 6/22/1907 12/21/1907 6/20/1908 12/19/1908 6/19/1909 12/18/1909 6/18/1910

Use

Out:End Outflow Total basin (Mcm) Out:Rsv Storage increase Total basin (Mcm) Out:Lnk Storage increase Total basin (Mcm) Out:Qls Allocation Total basin (Mcm) Out:Lnk Soil moisture recharge Total basin (Mcm)

Out:Rsv Evaporation Total basin (Mcm) Out:Lnk Evaporation Total basin (Mcm) Out:Pws Consumption from sw and gw Total basin (Mcm) Out:Air Consumption from sw and gw Total basin (Mcm)

Overall basin water balance

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Example and preliminary base case model results

Graph for location Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw
182 180 178 176 174 172 170 168 166 164 162 160 158 156 154 152 150 148 D 1899-12-01 00:00:00 1909-07-01 00:00:00 1919-06-01 00:00:00 1929-06-01 00:00:00 1939-05-01 00:00:00 1949-05-01 00:00:00 1959-04-01 00:00:00 1969-04-01 00:00:00 1979-03-01 00:00:00 1989-03-01 00:00:00 1999-02-01 00:00:00

Level: actual at end of time step Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw Level: dead Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw

SW reservoir node results

Level: full reservoir Rsv_Eg_HighAswanDam_IrHpPw

Reservoir level of Lake Nasser over time

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Average monthly flow at El Diem Mcm)

16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 j f Ver m a S000 m S001 j S002 j S003 a S004 s S005 o n S006 d

Results: change in flow regime

Flow at Deim

Average monthly inflow of Lake Nasser (Mcm)

25000.0

20000.0

15000.0

10000.0

Inflow to Lake Nasser

j f m Ver a S000 m S001 j j a s S005 o S006 n d

5000.0

0.0

2008 S004 S0021 januari S003

Simulation results: hydro-power production

Total energy production (GWh)

70000.0 60000.0 50000.0 40000.0 30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 0.0 Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

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Annual average net evaporation (Mcm)

20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 Ver S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 S005 S006

Net evap.from reservoirs

Total basin net evaporation from reservoirs

Lake Nasser average annual net evaporation (Mcm)

14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 Ver S000 S001
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Lake Nasser net evaporation

S002

S003

S004

S005

S006

Simulation results: Irr and DMI water use

Total water use (Mcm)
60000.0 50000.0 40000.0 30000.0 20000.0 10000.0 0.0 S000 S001 S002 Ethiopia Sudan S003 Egypt S004 South Sudan S005 S006

Total water use per country

Water use of Sudan (Mcm)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000.0 0.0 S000 S001 S002 S003 S004 Total S005 S006

Sudan water use

1 januari Evap. from reservoirs Irr. 2008 And DMI use

Simulation results: size of the swamps

Swamp area (ha)
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Ver S000 S001 S002 Bahr El Ghazal S003 Machar Sudd S004 S005 S006

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Example and preliminary base case model results

Graph for location Lst_Ss_SwampSudd
4,800,000 4,600,000 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 2,600,000 2,400,000 2,200,000 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 D 1899-12-01 00:00:00 1909-10-01 00:00:00 1920-01-01 00:00:00 1930-04-01 00:00:00 1940-06-01 00:00:00 1950-09-01 00:00:00 1960-12-01 00:00:00 1971-03-01 00:00:00 1981-06-01 00:00:00 1991-09-01 00:00:00 2001-12-01 00:00:00

Surface area Lst_Ss_SwampSudd

Link storage node results

Surface area of Sudd swamp over time (ha)

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Example and preliminary base case model results

Graph for location Swf_110_MainNileRiver
10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1/29/1900 2/28/1900 3/30/1900 4/29/1900 5/29/1900 6/28/1900 7/28/1900 8/27/1900 9/26/1900 10/26/1900 11/25/1900

Minimum Swf_110_MainNileRiver 0.20 depend. Swf_110_MainNileRiver

Average Swf_110_MainNileRiver

Maximum Swf_110_MainNileRiver

0.80 depend. Swf_110_MainNileRiver

Link flow statistics Annual results Emperical method (Method 2)

Max, average, min, 20% and 80% dependable monthly inflow of Lake Nasser
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How to proceed (1)

Water supply side: All hydrological time series are consistent but improvement can be aimed for the series along Blue Nile, Lake Tana (Gigel Abay), Gilo-Birbir Extension of the time series from 2002 to 2012 Water use side: Use of more differentiated crop plans Improvement of the DMI demand based on better data Extension of the model with Egypt

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How to proceed (2)

Infrastructure: Filling up the missing data for the potential reservoirs Fine-tuning the operation rules of the dams Improvement of the water allocation especially in Sudan based on better field data Measures and management actions: Defining more measures and management actions to analyze Analuze filling strategies for the Renaissance and Rumela-Burdana dams under construction

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Thanks

Grand Renaissance Dam (Et)

1 januari 2008 http://shebapost.com/sites/default/files/field/image/millennium_dam.jpg