Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
28 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Over Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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28 May 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
414.10
270.90
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
594
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
281.40
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
360
0.66
COBHAM
282.30
190.10
287.20
Neutral
Buy
313
0.82
MEGGITT
523.50
364.30
532.50
Sell
Sell
449
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1190.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1190
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1355.00
979.50
1370.00
Neutral
Sell
1144
0.71
1811.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1683
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
296.40
173.60
311.90
Neutral
Neutral
284
2.02
INCHCAPE
549.00
305.20
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
542
1.48
LOOKERS
106.00
56.50
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
115
1.23
25.50
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
37
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
317.00
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-802
1.94
726.00
503.20
769.90
Neutral
Buy
922
1.17
60.08
25.29
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
327.00
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-144
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1537.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3174
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
570.00
348.00
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
605
0.55
DIAGEO
2019.50
1513.50
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1794
0.55
SABMILLER
3432.50
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3959
0.95
BARR (AG)
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
323.50
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
642
1.23
CARCLO
370.50
356.00
503.00
Neutral
Neutral
385
0.73
2529.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Sell
2081
1.04
237.70
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
342
0.99
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2596.00
2080.27
2696.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11483
1.45
VICTREX
1628.00
1185.00
1736.00
Neutral
Sell
1446
1.14
SYNTHOMER
191.00
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Neutral
208
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
198.50
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
369
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
243
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
236.50
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
928
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
325.00
114.00
346.30
Neutral
Buy
443
1.58
BELLWAY
1261.00
660.00
1377.00
Neutral
Buy
1807
1.15
2123.00
1191.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3269
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
189.50
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
337
0.83
744.50
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Sell
539
1.20
CARILLION
250.10
235.50
331.80
Buy
Strong Buy
736
1.12
CLARKE (T)
53.50
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
250
0.82
259.50
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
544
0.57
1390.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
833
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
953.00
579.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1581
1.01
KELLER
934.50
348.25
978.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2023
1.26
1228.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3171
0.97
66.50
49.75
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
209
1.07
1.39
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
Target
Beta
MARSHALLS
136.75
76.00
139.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
276
555.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3193
0.87
15.37
9.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
32
1.15
NORCROS
1220.00
496.69
1272.00
Neutral
Buy
1371
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
225.90
107.30
238.10
Neutral
Buy
273
1.09
SIG
173.30
82.30
174.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
494
1.79
2.00
1.88
14.50
Sell
Strong Buy
50
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
97.65
40.28
103.00
Neutral
Buy
122
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1566.00
906.50
1604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2443
2.01
WOLSELEY
3329.00
2121.32
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5340
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1305.00
978.00
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
826
0.75
663.50
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
906
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
125.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
1.29
INVENSYS
387.40
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Neutral
370
1.41
LAIRD
204.20
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Sell
73
2.13
DIALIGHT
Target
Beta
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1572.00
1120.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1265
1.00
RENISHAW
1756.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2538
1.26
SPECTRIS
2090.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2383
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.14
Neutral
Strong Buy
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
174.00
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
439
1.58
XAAR
634.50
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
252
1.11
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
82.88
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
106
1.28
BODYCOTE
553.50
310.30
560.50
Neutral
Neutral
528
1.60
CASTINGS
336.50
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
720
0.99
VESUVIUS
367.60
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Buy
525
2.20
FENNER
342.00
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
571
1.42
HALMA
519.00
375.00
538.50
Neutral
Sell
405
0.75
436.00
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
348
1.37
1309.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Neutral
1402
1.41
290.50
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
554
1.82
2835.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
2213
1.00
271.40
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
219
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
45.50
35.40
91.10
Neutral
Sell
32
SPIRAX-SARCO
2787.00
1900.00
2865.00
Neutral
Sell
2342
0.84
VITEC GROUP
598.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Neutral
623
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2295.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2094
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
410.00
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
704
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
280.00
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
179
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
378.00
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
197
0.57
TESCO
380.00
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
261
0.68
94.13
18.88
100.50
Neutral
Sell
68
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1932.00
1167.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2173
0.62
CRANSWICK
1088.00
732.50
1115.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2146
0.43
DAIRY CREST
489.60
312.70
489.60
Sell
Neutral
522
0.94
DEVRO
339.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
531
0.32
72.25
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-181
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
875.50
633.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1600
0.71
2862.00
2013.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2843
0.58
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28 May 2013
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.75
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
36
0.69
459.00
224.40
465.60
Neutral
Sell
389
0.54
1518.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
1050
1.27
641.50
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
300
0.95
41.88
12.67
42.90
Neutral
Neutral
43
1.51
153.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.13
31.75
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
109
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
300.00
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
537
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
885.00
606.50
900.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1616
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
70.50
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Buy
99
1.25
KINGFISHER
327.00
254.10
335.50
Neutral
Buy
417
0.94
475.00
312.20
475.20
Sell
Buy
555
0.65
55.50
42.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
64
1.04
348.75
189.25
364.00
Neutral
Buy
408
0.47
NEXT
4580.00
2987.00
4749.00
Neutral
Sell
3977
0.67
TED BAKER
1490.00
840.00
1490.00
Sell
Sell
703
0.55
65.00
32.13
70.00
Neutral
Sell
54
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
114
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
768.00
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
564
0.39
OPTOS
135.00
122.25
222.75
Neutral
Buy
159
1.18
782.50
590.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
705
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
722.50
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
703
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
366.00
263.00
372.50
Neutral
Sell
305
0.92
74.00
55.25
89.00
Neutral
Buy
107
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
985.50
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
540
0.74
CSR
549.50
200.30
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1280
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.00
25.00
83.25
Neutral
Sell
47
0.90
353.40
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Buy
508
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
133.20
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
674
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
220.50
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-486
0.90
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28 May 2013
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1298.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Neutral
1249
0.53
AMLIN
419.20
312.90
435.10
Neutral
Sell
60
0.46
BEAZLEY
232.60
132.50
240.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1279
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
524.50
399.00
552.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2010
0.30
HISCOX
570.00
393.97
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2550
0.48
894.50
671.00
914.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1710
0.31
113.40
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
917
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
488.50
345.00
500.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2859
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2237.00
2062.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4175
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
116.00
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Neutral
115
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
358.50
158.00
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
804
1.01
812.50
700.00
820.00
Neutral
Sell
704
0.39
GREENE KING
767.00
478.20
789.50
Neutral
Sell
679
0.93
LADBROKES
207.10
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
261
0.93
1912.00
1413.65
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1525
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
550.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
672
1.40
385.10
217.40
408.50
Neutral
Sell
332
1.12
131.40
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
44
1.25
11.50
5.61
13.12
Neutral
Strong Buy
54
1.27
146.20
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
521
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
521.50
279.90
531.00
Neutral
Sell
335
WETHERSPOON (JD)
641.00
385.00
661.50
Neutral
Buy
770
0.69
WHITBREAD
2835.00
1821.00
2887.00
Neutral
Sell
2069
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
440.50
246.35
452.80
Neutral
Sell
266
0.87
MARSTON'S
149.40
94.70
154.70
Neutral
Sell
20
1.21
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
328.90
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
714
1.25
CHESNARA
258.00
155.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
399
0.70
180.00
106.00
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
360
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
214.00
138.70
221.60
Neutral
Neutral
207
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1144.00
660.00
1203.00
Neutral
Sell
1024
1.71
584.00
303.40
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1528
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
128.62
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-624
0.37
780.50
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1841
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
33.25
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
163
1.03
758.50
363.50
768.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4369
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
930.00
700.00
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8100
1.00
INFORMA
521.50
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-76
1.53
ITE GROUP
292.80
180.00
299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
1.45
ITV
130.10
69.45
134.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1350
1.54
17.25
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
828
1.27
1223.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
342
0.63
82.00
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2794
0.79
274.50
265.00
377.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
939
0.16
36.37
26.85
36.37
Neutral
Sell
-619
0.50
STV GROUP
136.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
282
0.79
ST.IVES
163.00
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
244
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
115.75
25.50
121.25
Neutral
Sell
-278
1.59
UBM
729.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1811
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
160.00
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1440
WPP
1146.00
743.00
1178.00
Neutral
Sell
-530
1.35
HIBU
0.40
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
859
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1556.50
1544.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1164
1.74
225.50
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
228
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
961.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
850
1.41
1923.00
1694.50
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2860
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
331.85
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
966
#NA
LONMIN
262.40
240.84
421.26
Neutral
Buy
344
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4988.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2967
0.34
RIO TINTO
2867.00
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2278
1.50
3.38
13.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
165
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2063
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1281.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1194.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Neutral
1236
0.80
BP
476.40
394.90
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1560
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
280.60
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-20
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
7.86
7.66
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
14
0.82
858.50
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
448
1.31
1.36
56.25
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
301
363.60
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Sell
285
1.43
2287.00
2059.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9422
0.84
390.90
270.30
404.30
Neutral
Sell
247
0.53
1025.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
900
1.04
828.00
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Neutral
801
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
105.00
101.20
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
376.10
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
308
0.69
4850.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4884
0.36
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.37
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-0
1.01
3428.00
2592.00
3485.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6761
0.47
BTG
353.70
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
173
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
709.00
468.75
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
747
0.25
1749.50
1317.50
1773.00
Neutral
Sell
1633
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.30
1.55
3.02
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2168.00
1727.00
2168.00
Neutral
Sell
1415
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
48.25
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
-135
0.73
VERNALIS
22.50
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Strong Buy
36
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
412.90
275.90
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-624
1.18
BRITISH LAND
631.50
475.40
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1841
1.06
Target
Beta
36.25
22.75
37.00
Sell
Strong Buy
163
0.85
957.50
595.00
995.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4369
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2435.00
1740.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8100
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
200.50
121.75
200.50
Neutral
Sell
-76
0.99
GRAINGER
155.00
83.10
156.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
571.50
367.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1350
1.10
HAMMERSON
521.00
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
828
1.19
HELICAL BAR
275.00
164.00
297.50
Neutral
Buy
342
0.77
961.00
704.00
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2794
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
341.30
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
939
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
149.00
127.00
153.00
Neutral
Sell
-619
0.73
393.25
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
282
0.42
323.00
311.17
363.53
Neutral
Sell
244
0.35
74.25
32.50
79.25
Sell
Sell
-278
1.19
SAVILLS
572.50
303.00
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1811
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
637.50
492.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1440
1.05
SEGRO
286.70
209.40
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-530
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
294.00
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
859
1.59
215.00
147.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
-6
1.01
UNITE GROUP
366.40
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Sell
49
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1208
1.03
413.40
215.50
415.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1396
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
124.80
112.25
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
125
0.73
2390.00
1481.00
2390.00
Neutral
Sell
1349
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
446.90
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1382
1.00
KOFAX
325.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
330
1.11
27.25
18.25
27.50
Sell
Sell
25
0.85
691.50
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Buy
1015
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
150.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
317
0.74
72.25
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-95
0.52
1883.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2131
0.76
362.20
247.70
368.10
Neutral
Buy
428
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
479.10
237.30
484.10
Neutral
Sell
149
BREWIN DOLPHIN
210.70
136.30
222.00
Neutral
Sell
121
0.73
9780.50
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Sell
9223
0.84
CAMELLIA
Target
Beta
1.09
386.00
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Sell
203
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
175.00
141.00
190.00
Neutral
Sell
132
0.69
1006.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Sell
226
0.86
95.20
70.00
110.40
Neutral
Neutral
102
0.89
3.36
0.55
3.70
Sell
Strong Buy
25
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
168.20
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Sell
65
1.44
ICAP
344.70
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Sell
235
1.07
1.70
HELPHIRE GROUP
480.50
241.10
501.50
Neutral
Sell
170
INVESTEC
484.60
326.50
513.50
Neutral
Sell
125
1.56
1381.00
930.00
1426.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4018
1.15
124.10
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
485
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1525.00
1186.00
1557.00
Neutral
Sell
1115
0.75
SCHRODERS
2432.00
1180.00
2560.00
Neutral
Sell
1199
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1900.00
966.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3820
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
219.00
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Buy
301
0.92
AGGREKO
1731.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Sell
1321
1.05
AMEC
1051.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Neutral
1156
1.04
633.50
212.20
671.00
Neutral
Sell
325
1.63
1166.00
840.50
1182.00
Neutral
Sell
680
0.48
564.00
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Buy
814
0.76
1308.00
999.50
1342.00
Neutral
Sell
1005
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
525.00
214.00
525.00
Sell
Sell
453
0.39
CAPITA
995.00
605.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
534
0.51
54.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Buy
70
0.78
0.74
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
COMPASS GROUP
887.00
622.00
910.50
Neutral
Sell
620
BERENDSEN
755.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Buy
1003
1.05
DE LA RUE
991.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Sell
621
#NA
DIGNITY
1345.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Sell
803
0.22
DIPLOMA
553.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Sell
496
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
263.40
195.20
278.40
Neutral
Buy
329
1.04
FILTRONA
723.50
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Sell
355
1.13
G4S
246.60
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Buy
300
0.58
93.70
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Buy
124
1.10
HOMESERVE
255.00
137.50
256.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
498
0.94
INTERSERVE
482.30
282.60
513.50
Neutral
Buy
702
1.28
3169.00
2558.00
3453.00
Neutral
Sell
1476
0.78
46.75
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
97
1.17
0.72
HAYS
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
57
MENZIES (JOHN)
718.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1304
1.43
376.60
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Sell
325
1.42
MITIE GROUP
260.00
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Buy
351
0.55
86.00
86.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.33
PAYPOINT
907.50
606.00
914.50
Neutral
Sell
704
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
222.60
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Buy
289
1.33
REGUS
165.20
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
110
1.46
92.50
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.25
OFFICE2OFFICE
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
523.50
394.28
547.50
Neutral
Neutral
545
0.90
RICARDO
400.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Buy
482
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
212.00
176.25
232.00
Neutral
Buy
304
1.24
RPC GROUP
406.30
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Buy
548
0.78
RPS GROUP
216.00
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Buy
254
1.51
SERCO GROUP
630.00
516.50
647.50
Neutral
Sell
594
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
86.50
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
173
1.46
SPEEDY HIRE
57.25
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Sell
54
1.26
165.00
82.00
166.00
Neutral
Sell
52
0.63
59.25
39.50
59.25
Neutral
Neutral
63
0.93
343.50
237.00
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
637
0.86
79.88
42.00
80.38
Sell
Strong Buy
185
0.79
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
www.intellisys.uk.com
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
307.70
200.70
322.30
Neutral
Buy
350
44.00
27.28
45.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
85
0.70
649.50
400.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
595
0.53
Beta
0.91
86.15
67.00
88.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
136
1.24
1287.00
703.00
1287.00
Sell
Sell
778
0.09
194.55
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Sell
170
0.54
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
285.10
178.00
288.40
Sell
Sell
Target
175
Beta
1.30
420.00
309.50
428.00
Neutral
Neutral
451
0.98
CLARKSON
1663.00
1150.00
1673.00
Sell
Sell
1484
0.80
EASYJET
1250.00
484.90
1285.00
Neutral
Sell
673
0.77
FIRST GROUP
127.40
127.40
260.50
Buy
Strong Buy
562
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
967.00
540.50
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
397
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1515.00
1086.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1851
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
206.00
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
252
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
330.75
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
627
STAGECOACH GROUP
305.40
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
363
0.89
60.00
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-40
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
389.70
306.30
394.90
Neutral
Buy
529
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
836.00
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
942
0.50
PENNON GROUP
701.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
871
0.59
SSE
1606.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
1894
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2071.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1713
0.35
787.00
642.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
761
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
28 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
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entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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