5/10/2013 University of Wisconsin, Madison Department of Urban and Regional Planning Cheng, Sheng-Yuan | Fang, Hao | London, Alex

x | Su, Jingxiang

Community GroundWorks
Planning for a Feasible 2023

CONTENTS Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 CGWs Background, Mission, and Vision ...................................................................................................... 3 Internal and External Trends......................................................................................................................... 3 Social Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 4 Political Trends ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Economic Trends ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Environmental Trends .............................................................................................................................. 5 Technological Trends ................................................................................................................................ 5 The Most Important Trends .......................................................................................................................... 5 Economic Dependency Concerns.................................................................................................................. 6 Scenarios ....................................................................................................................................................... 6 Scenario 1: More public funding and the community becomes more local ............................................ 7 Scenario 2: More public funding and social media transforms community............................................. 7 Scenario 3: Less public funding and community becomes more local ..................................................... 9 Scenario 4: Less public funding and social media transforms community ............................................. 10 Concluding Thoughts .................................................................................................................................. 11

INTRODUCTION This document is the result of a scenario planning process conducted in Spring of 2013 for Community GroundWorks (CGW). The purpose of this exercise is to identify internal and external trends that most affect the organization. Trends are organized into Social, Political, Economic, Environmental, and Technological (SPEET) categories. Two categories will be analyzed for the formulation of scenarios. The ultimate goal is to articulate aspects of the organization that are vulnerable to changing circumstances. Using this information, CGW may be able to assuage the impacts of undesirable changes, as well as take advantage of desirable changes. The scenarios are designed to be feasible and pertinent, projecting 10 years into the future.

CGWS BACKGROUND, MISSION, AND VISION CGW is a young, innovative, and successful organization. As the organization grows, changes, and adapts, its core mission and vision guide its way. CGWs vision is described succinctly as, People cooperate to create and sustain healthy communities by growing food and caring for nature within their urban environments. The mission statement is more defining: Community GroundWorks connects individuals to urban agricultural and natural lands within a diverse learning community. We grow wholesome and organic food for local tables, steward urban natural areas, inspire healthful eating, and offer hands-on learning opportunities. By teaching what we practice, we pass on the skills to build enduring communities. Plainly put, CGW is devoted to providing (healthy) food security. Ancillary objectives are in conserving natural areas and educating community members about their welfare. This scenario planning exercise will explore how changing circumstances could affect the successful implementation of these specific goals. INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL TRENDS We have identified several internal and external trends, categorized into SPEET, which are most important to CGW. 3

SOCIAL TRENDS External - Social interest in community gardening and urban farming plays an important role in promoting the development of CGW. Increasingly, community members and other civil sector organizations are expressing interest in establishing the infrastructure for urban gardening and farming. This cultural shift should continue to open a market for achieving CGWs core mission. CGWs educational activities also play a role in this regard.

POLITICAL TRENDS External In a democratic society, public policies should reflect public will. Realistically, however, favorable social trends do not necessarily correlate with political decision making. Fortunately, the political environment has thus far been supportive of the development of CGW. Farmland preservation has gained considerable political support in Madison. There have been precedents for zoning easements and adjustments that allow for urban gardening to proliferate. However, budgetary concerns at the federal, state and local level may lessen pecuniary support from public bodies.

Internal The organizational structure of CGW is very important for the organizations success. Sophisticated management techniques and bureaucratic decision-making through the board of directors ensure that CGW is run effectively. In so far as CGW depends on scarce human capital for its success may determine the organizations sustainability.

ECONOMIC TRENDS External - The economic environment plays a large role in CGWs financial sustainability, as economic circumstances influence the charity of private and civic sponsors as well as funding from the public sector. As food prices rise, the importance of CGW helping to provide food security to disadvantaged families likewise increases. What determines the charity of sponsors, however, besides the effectiveness of internal fund raising, is the disposable cash of companies, organizations, families, and individuals. 4

Rising taxes on the federal, state and local level decrease the cash available for charity. Decreasing expenditures on public services and social programs from public budgets, obviously, decrease CGWs funding from the public sector.

Internal The economic sustainability of CGW has a good track record. In so far as resources are used efficiently and effectively, the organization should be able to grow and expand its activities.

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS None have been identified as important.

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS External Social media and information technology in general have been changing (and are likely to continue changing) how people are educated and informed. The concept of community is changing as well, with propinquity becoming a not-so-important factor in socialization and the creation of cultures.

Internal CGWs relationship to social media and information technology is crucial to the fulfillment of its goals. Utilizing interactive, social and multi-media platforms can act to increase the exposure of CGW and to effectively education and inform large numbers of individuals. Opportunities for increasing revenues through fundraising, as well as increasing social and human capital, are enormous.

THE MOST IMPORTANT TRENDS The trends in SPEET reveal a high correlation from category to category. For example, social trends technological trends are strongly related. Likewise, economic trends are largely impacted by political trends. We have identified political and technological tends as the most important because there are aspects of both categories that may have a large impact on CGW. As the social aspect is largely tied to the technology aspect, and the economic is largely tied to the political aspect, there will inevitably be a 5

lot of cross-over between them. We will expand on these circumstances in more detail in the scenario portion of this document. ECONOMIC DEPENDENCY CONCERNS On May 25, 2012 a professional audit of CGW was completed for year 2010 and 2011. It was revealed that 31% of CGWs support and revenue came from the Goodman Community Center, which in turn is funded by public, civil sector, and private sources through the City of Madison, United Way, CDGB, and AmeriCorps. Another 20% of CGWs support and revenue comes from the United States Department of Agriculture. The audit report explains that, A significant reduction in the level of support and revenue from these funding sources may have an adverse effect on the CGWs programs and activities. SCENARIOS These scenarios describe what could feasibly be the situation in the year 2023

More public funding/community becomes more local

More public funding/social media transforms community

Less public funding/community becomes more local

Less public funding/social media transforms community

Figure 1. Scenario matrix

SCENARIO 1: MORE PUBLIC FUNDING AND THE COMMUNITY BECOMES MORE LOCAL The federal government has gained greater taxing power and ability to provide services. Increased focus on generative social welfare has influenced programs in the USDA that support urban agriculture in replacement of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs and local food shelves. CGW is amongst a number of non-profit organizations that have received block grants for its gardening, agricultural, and educational activities. The USDA has teamed up with Wisconsins Department of Education to ensure healthy lunches in public schools, which has allowed CGWs organic farm to retain steady buyers and a secure cash flow from Madisons public schools. Also, the USDA has approved capital funding to setup Small-Plot Individualistic gardening in the back-yards of low income households, on the grounds of food security. Various social welfare programs are being promoted by federal agencies and approved by congress. CGWs good reputation has allowed it to receive continued support from the public sector for its programs and services. Widespread feelings of social alienation due to ubiquitous technological use and limiting social media have caused resurgence in local community engagement. CGW has become more central to the everyday lives of the surrounding neighborhoods and the Madison area at large. The property on Troy Drives use as a social and educational hub for the community has been strengthened and expanded. Many more people come to the Troy Gardens property to garden in the plots, volunteer, learn gardening techniques, walk the trails, meet people, and enjoy their free-time. This strengthened community involvement has helped to ensure more funding, as well as better human capital in the organization. The goals of the organization are largely being fulfilled, due directly to this shift in local community engagement. The status-quo operational activities of CGW are well-suited to this scenario. Currently, a focus on local community engagement relies on communities in general being concerned with forming communityconnections by proximity. Support from the public sector at both the federal and state/local levels is essential to CGWs operational budgets. If this scenario becomes a reality, CGW will not need to adjust the framework of its current operations.

SCENARIO 2: MORE PUBLIC FUNDING AND SOCIAL MEDIA TRANSFORMS COMMUNITY

The federal government has gained greater taxing power and ability to provide services. Increased focus on generative social welfare has influenced programs in the USDA that support urban agriculture in replacement of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Programs and local food shelves. CGW is amongst a number of non-profit organizations that have received block grants for its gardening, agricultural, and educational activities. The USDA has teamed up with Wisconsins Department of Education to ensure healthy lunches in public schools, which has allowed CGWs organic farm to retain steady buyers and a secure cash flow from Madisons public schools. Also, the USDA has approved capital funding to setup Small-Plot Individualistic gardening in the back-yards of low income households, on the grounds of food security. Various social welfare programs are being promoted by federal agencies and approved by congress. CGWs good reputation has allowed it to receive continued support from the public sector for its programs and services. The technological trend of improved social media connections has broken the spatial barriers of communities. New communities are being formed every day, allowing people to communicate through multi-media channels with like-minded people, from all over the planet. For many people, local community culture has become antiquated and obsolete. Because of this phenomenon, community involvement with CGW has suffered. Fewer and fewer people use Troy Gardens as a social hub and community members that are interested in vegetable gardening have found more convenient educational channels on the Internet. CGWs membership isnt growing, and its funding from private donors has weakened. CGW for many people in the community has become ignored and forgotten about. CGWs current operational framework is based on local community involvement and public funding. In this scenario, public funding has increased but the local public sphere has become increasingly obsolete. The lack of meaningful interaction with social media-based communities has been detrimental to CGWs success - from the perspectives of access to private funding and achieving its core mission statement. Inertia in the organizations programming has caused a slow deterioration in local community interest as society continued to transform the nature of community relationships.

SCENARIO 3: LESS PUBLIC FUNDING AND COMMUNITY BECOMES MORE LOCAL Due to fiscal constraints and a change in popular political doctrine, the federal governments role in providing support to local social welfare programs has decreased. In order to reduce government spending, the executive power merged the USDA with the EPA, and subsequently many of the food security program provided by the USDA have been cutback. Admission requirements to Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Programs have been increased to include only highly impoverished families, and healthy food security organizations like CGW have been viewed by those in power as unnecessary. Entire programs have been cut from the budget, CGWs federal funding included. The State of Wisconsin and the City of Madison attempt to fill the void of funds, but the prospect of increasing taxes to support CGW is unpopular. Decreased federal funding for all public services has increased pressure on local municipalities. Political leaders are reluctant to increase taxes in fear of losing their constituents. Widespread feelings of social alienation due to ubiquitous technological use and limiting social media have caused resurgence in local community engagement. CGW has become more central to the everyday lives of the surrounding neighborhoods and the Madison area at large. The property on Troy Drives use as a social and educational hub for the community has been strengthened and expanded. Many more people come to the Troy Gardens property to garden in the plots, volunteer, learn gardening techniques, walk the trails, meet people, and enjoy their free-time. This strengthened community involvement has helped to ensure more funding, as well as better human capital in the organization. The goals of the organization are largely being fulfilled, due directly to this shift in local community engagement. CGWs budgetary issues have become a major concern because of reduced public funding, but the increased focus on local community involvement has given the organization hope in filling the funding gap. CGW amped-up its fundraising to get the most pecuniary support from those who benefit from CGWs services or ethically-support the cause. Financial sustainability is unsure, however, and there is worry in the organization that they will have to reduce funding for some of the programs. The growth of the organization seems to have reached its limit.

SCENARIO 4: LESS PUBLIC FUNDING AND SOCIAL MEDIA TRANSFORMS COMMUNITY Due to fiscal constraints and a change in popular political doctrine, the federal governments role in providing support to local social welfare programs has decreased. In order to reduce government spending, the executive power merged the USDA with the EPA, and subsequently many of the food security program provided by the USDA have been cutback. Admission requirements to Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Programs have been increased to include only highly impoverished families, and healthy food security organizations like CGW have been viewed by those in power as unnecessary. Entire programs have been cut from the budget, CGWs federal funding included. The State of Wisconsin and the City of Madison attempt to fill the void of funds, but the prospect of increasing taxes to support CGW is unpopular. Decreased federal funding for all public services has increased pressure on local municipalities. Political leaders are reluctant to increase taxes in fear of losing their constituents. The technological trend of improved social media connections has broken the spatial barriers of communities. New communities are being formed every day, allowing people to communicate through multi-media channels with like-minded people, from all over the planet. For many people, local community culture has become antiquated and obsolete. Because of this phenomenon, community involvement with CGW has suffered. Fewer and fewer people use Troy Gardens as a social hub and community members that are interested in vegetable gardening have found more convenient educational channels on the Internet. CGWs membership isnt growing, and its funding from private donors has weakened. CGW for many people in the community has become ignored and forgotten about. In this scenario, CGWs fiscal future and community impact is greatly challenged. Reduced public funding has caused CGW to seek extra community support, but deteriorating community involvement has increased the difficulty in garnering more private donations. Though the necessity of CGWs programs has not decreased, CGWs community impact has. Fiscal constraints and social irrelevancy have caused major stakeholders to abandon the organization.

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CONCLUDING THOUGHTS This scenario planning exercise reveals two main challenges to the long-term viability of CGW: access to public funding, and utilization of social media technologies. As these are two factors largely outside of the control of the organization, undesirable changes in these areas will have detrimental consequences. It is imperative that CGW prepares for the possibility of these undesirable scenarios. There is a strong possibility that Scenario 4, in which public funding decreases and social media creates communities that undermine local involvement, becomes the reality in 2023. In order to prepare for this possibility, CGW must act to wean itself off of reliance on continuous support from the USDA and other public funders. It is necessary for CGW to do this by increasing private and civil sector support through increased exposure and fundraising. As the nature of communities change, it is important for CGW to adapt as well. Social media technologies can be utilized to engage a multitude of individuals, in the United States and around the world, who are interested in urban gardening and healthy food. Media forums such as Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, etc. can be used for public education as well as organizational exposure. The more people who are aware of the organization and benefit from its knowledge and services, the greater base of support there is for fundraising. We hope that the information within this document may be useful to your organization in the years ahead. Thank you for providing us with the support we needed to complete this project.

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