Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
30 May 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Under Valued ......................................................................6
Chemicals
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
www.intellisys.uk.com
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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30 May 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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30 May 2013
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Page 5 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
404.10
270.90
427.00
Neutral
Buy
Target
585
Beta
0.67
CHEMRING GROUP
280.60
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
338
0.66
COBHAM
284.20
190.10
287.70
Neutral
Neutral
290
0.82
MEGGITT
527.50
364.30
534.00
Neutral
Neutral
514
1.32
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1191.00
780.75
1225.00
Neutral
Neutral
1164
1.07
SMITHS GROUP
1342.00
979.50
1384.00
Neutral
Sell
1128
0.71
1795.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1663
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
300.30
173.60
311.90
Neutral
Neutral
300
2.02
INCHCAPE
558.00
305.20
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
573
1.48
LOOKERS
105.75
56.50
110.00
Neutral
Neutral
101
1.23
25.25
13.50
26.50
Neutral
Buy
36
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
320.00
150.55
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-817
1.94
727.60
503.20
769.90
Neutral
Buy
865
1.17
60.64
25.29
62.96
Sell
Sell
1.89
326.00
196.60
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-134
1.35
STANDARD CHARTERED
1545.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3393
1.70
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
568.50
348.00
588.50
Neutral
Neutral
601
0.55
DIAGEO
1982.50
1516.50
2085.00
Neutral
Sell
1770
0.55
SABMILLER
3396.50
2348.50
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
3909
0.95
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ALENT
361.90
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3472
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
316.50
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
497
1.23
CARCLO
375.50
356.00
503.00
Neutral
Sell
120
0.73
2539.00
2125.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3418
1.04
239.80
179.00
275.00
Neutral
Buy
302
0.99
1.45
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2595.00
2080.27
2696.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4505
VICTREX
1730.00
1185.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1383
1.14
SYNTHOMER
195.10
127.40
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
340
1.16
ZOTEFOAMS
200.00
157.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
254
1.00
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30 May 2013
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Page 6 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
93.00
61.50
104.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
282
Beta
0.51
BALFOUR BEATTY
237.80
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
834
0.80
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
323.10
114.00
346.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
626
1.58
BELLWAY
1271.00
681.50
1377.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2870
1.15
2128.00
1202.00
2207.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3280
0.66
BOOT (HENRY)
191.00
115.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
407
0.83
1.20
735.50
399.30
778.50
Neutral
Buy
1051
CARILLION
254.20
235.50
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1564
1.12
CLARKE (T)
55.00
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
464
0.82
COSTAIN GROUP
264.25
188.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1068
0.57
1398.00
1052.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
868
1.14
GALLIFORD TRY
970.50
583.00
999.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2999
1.01
KELLER
940.00
348.25
978.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2445
1.26
1244.00
1106.00
1408.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5445
0.97
66.75
49.75
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.07
1.39
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
140.00
76.00
140.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
417
573.50
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4621
0.87
16.00
9.75
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.15
NORCROS
1242.00
496.69
1280.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1991
1.20
REDROW
PERSIMMON
225.00
107.30
238.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
462
1.09
SIG
177.00
82.30
179.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
539
1.79
2.00
1.88
14.50
Sell
Strong Buy
37
0.88
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
98.90
40.28
103.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.67
TRAVIS PERKINS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
1561.00
906.50
1606.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4243
2.01
WOLSELEY
3338.00
2121.32
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6123
1.46
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1305.00
978.00
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
815
0.75
672.00
509.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
887
1.18
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
126.00
105.50
144.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
260
1.29
INVENSYS
395.90
198.90
402.70
Neutral
Sell
348
1.41
LAIRD
211.50
177.00
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
325
2.13
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1598.00
1135.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1259
1.00
RENISHAW
1792.00
1260.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2626
1.26
SPECTRIS
2070.00
1427.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2793
1.52
0.07
0.07
0.13
Neutral
Sell
0.84
TT ELECTRONICS
173.75
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
316
1.58
XAAR
645.50
185.00
695.00
Neutral
Sell
234
1.11
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
83.00
54.25
91.75
Neutral
Buy
123
1.28
BODYCOTE
547.50
310.30
563.00
Neutral
Buy
664
1.60
CASTINGS
339.00
277.75
358.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
651
0.99
VESUVIUS
373.90
263.19
402.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
961
2.20
FENNER
343.40
329.30
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
530
1.42
HALMA
525.00
375.00
538.50
Neutral
Sell
372
0.75
426.50
297.00
480.00
Neutral
Sell
350
1.37
1319.00
776.00
1359.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
735861
1.41
290.00
220.30
305.00
Neutral
Buy
357
1.82
2840.00
1859.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1487
1.00
272.40
177.00
280.80
Neutral
Sell
237
1.64
0.79
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
48.50
35.40
91.10
Neutral
Sell
39
SPIRAX-SARCO
2861.00
1900.00
2923.00
Neutral
Sell
2045
0.84
VITEC GROUP
605.00
586.50
740.00
Neutral
Sell
426
1.39
WEIR GROUP
2307.00
1397.00
2474.00
Neutral
Sell
2121
1.38
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
408.20
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
704
0.47
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
278.10
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Sell
165
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
377.00
283.50
396.50
Neutral
Sell
199
0.57
TESCO
373.00
297.05
387.75
Neutral
Sell
264
0.68
94.63
18.88
100.50
Neutral
Sell
67
0.84
THORNTONS
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1874.00
1167.00
2031.00
Neutral
Buy
2145
0.62
CRANSWICK
1099.00
732.50
1115.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2117
0.43
DAIRY CREST
496.80
312.70
503.50
Sell
Neutral
517
0.94
DEVRO
331.00
278.00
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
523
0.32
70.50
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Sell
-179
1.25
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
849.00
633.50
875.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1576
0.71
2828.00
2013.00
2885.00
Neutral
Neutral
2801
0.58
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30 May 2013
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Page 8 of 17
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
28.63
20.50
29.50
Neutral
Buy
34
0.69
458.50
224.40
465.60
Neutral
Sell
348
0.54
1504.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
948
1.27
622.00
585.00
728.50
Neutral
Sell
283
0.95
41.65
12.67
42.90
Neutral
Neutral
44
1.51
160.00
55.20
186.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.13
31.00
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
105
0.99
HALFORDS GROUP
300.00
189.00
405.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
905.00
606.50
905.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1509
0.53
DARTY
Target
Beta
72.00
38.00
72.50
Neutral
Buy
102
1.25
KINGFISHER
327.80
254.10
335.50
Neutral
Buy
363
0.94
472.00
312.20
485.00
Neutral
Neutral
513
0.65
55.50
43.00
71.00
Neutral
Buy
62
1.04
353.75
189.25
364.00
Neutral
Buy
439
0.47
NEXT
4638.00
2991.00
4749.00
Neutral
Neutral
4532
0.67
TED BAKER
1457.00
842.00
1490.00
Neutral
Sell
640
0.55
68.00
36.00
70.00
Neutral
Sell
54
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Heath
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
141.00
126.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
116
0.46
CONSORT MEDICAL
781.50
584.00
831.50
Neutral
Sell
571
0.39
OPTOS
123.00
122.25
222.75
Neutral
Buy
156
1.18
770.50
590.50
794.50
Neutral
Sell
697
0.43
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
717.50
557.00
742.00
Neutral
Neutral
698
0.44
HEADLAM GROUP
368.38
263.00
372.50
Neutral
Sell
314
0.92
77.00
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
107
0.77
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
977.50
469.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
501
0.74
CSR
545.00
200.30
570.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1586
1.18
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
62.00
25.00
83.25
Neutral
Sell
26
0.90
362.70
296.00
624.00
Neutral
Neutral
381
1.08
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
132.50
122.00
170.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
484
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
216.00
170.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-648
0.90
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30 May 2013
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Page 9 of 17
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1297.00
1019.00
1374.00
Neutral
Sell
-557
0.53
AMLIN
417.00
312.90
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1596
0.46
BEAZLEY
236.20
132.50
241.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
991
0.60
CATLIN GROUP
511.00
399.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
470
0.30
HISCOX
560.50
393.97
600.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1981
0.48
894.50
671.00
914.50
Neutral
Buy
1254
0.31
114.30
97.65
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
759
0.41
NOVAE GROUP
507.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3585
0.48
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2236.00
2062.00
2628.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4097
1.01
ENTERPRISE INNS
115.00
55.50
123.80
Neutral
Neutral
111
1.61
TUI TRAVEL
359.60
158.00
373.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
796
1.01
850.00
700.00
850.00
Neutral
Sell
691
0.39
GREENE KING
755.50
478.20
789.50
Neutral
Sell
666
0.93
LADBROKES
206.20
152.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
258
0.93
1903.00
1439.68
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1510
1.18
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
555.50
455.40
582.50
Neutral
Buy
632
1.40
383.10
217.40
408.50
Neutral
Sell
325
1.12
129.70
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
44
1.25
13.25
5.61
13.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
52
1.27
150.00
115.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
514
1.00
0.76
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
512.00
279.90
531.00
Neutral
Sell
401
WETHERSPOON (JD)
650.50
385.00
661.50
Neutral
Buy
759
0.69
WHITBREAD
2858.00
1824.00
2897.00
Sell
Sell
2039
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
433.40
246.35
452.80
Neutral
Sell
262
0.87
MARSTON'S
143.60
94.70
154.70
Neutral
Sell
19
1.21
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
329.00
255.30
388.40
Neutral
Neutral
324
1.25
CHESNARA
260.00
155.25
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
478
0.70
181.10
106.00
187.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
458
1.71
OLD MUTUAL
210.50
138.70
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
405
1.57
PRUDENTIAL
1138.00
660.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1155
1.71
589.00
306.90
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6626
0.85
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
130.00
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Sell
-651
0.37
784.00
656.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1774
0.54
CENTAUR MEDIA
Target
Beta
33.50
28.50
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-21
1.03
752.00
363.50
769.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4265
1.14
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
923.50
708.00
1030.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7830
1.00
INFORMA
517.00
340.00
537.00
Neutral
Sell
-61
1.53
ITE GROUP
293.90
180.00
299.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
1.45
ITV
130.40
69.45
134.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
1320
1.54
17.75
4.88
19.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
815
1.27
1225.00
1119.00
1294.00
Neutral
Buy
352
0.63
82.00
36.25
84.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2736
0.79
274.25
265.00
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
943
0.16
35.90
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Sell
-637
0.50
STV GROUP
135.50
81.50
146.88
Neutral
Sell
273
0.79
ST.IVES
160.25
67.50
166.50
Neutral
Sell
258
1.50
TRINITY MIRROR
120.50
25.50
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-298
1.59
UBM
737.00
511.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1963
1.31
0.84
JOHNSTON PRESS
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
161.75
82.00
164.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1406
WPP
1148.00
743.00
1190.00
Neutral
Sell
-531
1.35
HIBU
0.39
0.26
2.18
Neutral
Strong Buy
841
1.07
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1538.00
1538.00
2215.00
Neutral
Sell
1161
1.74
227.25
215.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
229
0.96
ANTOFAGASTA
946.00
884.00
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
833
1.41
1930.00
1694.50
2236.00
Neutral
Buy
2865
1.43
GLENCORE XSTRATA
327.75
293.55
397.85
Buy
Strong Buy
961
#NA
LONMIN
271.00
240.84
421.26
Neutral
Buy
350
2.03
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4941.00
4545.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2967
0.34
RIO TINTO
2860.50
2715.50
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2281
1.50
3.38
10.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
164
0.89
832.50
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2032
2.20
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
COALFIELD RESOURCES
VEDANTA RESOURCES
1282.00
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1210.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
881
BP
477.50
394.90
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
992
1.03
CAIRN ENERGY
279.40
248.20
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-13
1.32
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
0.80
8.10
7.66
12.50
Neutral
Buy
10
0.82
881.50
688.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
559
1.31
1.36
56.50
55.00
120.00
Neutral
Sell
-64
365.10
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
404
1.43
2304.00
2059.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8273
0.84
386.20
276.50
404.30
Neutral
Buy
512
0.53
1029.00
977.00
1531.00
Neutral
Sell
701
1.04
833.50
651.50
879.50
Neutral
Sell
727
1.35
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
101.00
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
376.70
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
306
0.69
4825.00
3300.00
4926.00
Neutral
Neutral
4868
0.36
Beta
Under Valued
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.43
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-2
1.01
3453.50
2592.00
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6570
0.47
BTG
359.40
300.30
423.00
Neutral
Sell
170
0.58
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
692.50
469.50
780.00
Neutral
Neutral
751
0.25
1726.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Neutral
1706
0.49
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
2.30
1.55
2.88
Buy
Sell
0.64
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Strong Buy
0.95
2187.00
1727.00
2213.00
Neutral
Sell
1457
0.66
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Beta
SKYEPHARMA
49.63
43.50
101.50
Neutral
Sell
32
0.73
VERNALIS
22.50
21.63
27.38
Neutral
Sell
10
0.91
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
412.50
276.30
426.70
Neutral
Sell
-651
1.18
BRITISH LAND
621.50
475.40
658.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1774
1.06
Target
Beta
35.75
22.75
37.00
Sell
Sell
-21
0.85
990.00
595.00
995.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4265
0.70
DERWENT LONDON
2401.00
1740.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7830
1.24
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
201.00
121.75
201.00
Neutral
Sell
-61
0.99
GRAINGER
154.60
83.10
157.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
1.58
CLS HOLDINGS
554.00
367.80
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1320
1.10
HAMMERSON
513.50
409.20
554.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
815
1.19
HELICAL BAR
272.00
167.50
297.50
Neutral
Buy
352
0.77
946.00
704.00
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2736
1.16
INTU PROPERTIES
330.10
305.00
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
943
1.09
MCKAY SECURITIES
153.25
127.00
153.25
Neutral
Sell
-637
0.73
385.50
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
273
0.42
319.25
311.17
363.53
Neutral
Sell
258
0.35
75.00
32.50
79.25
Sell
Sell
-298
1.19
SAVILLS
578.00
315.00
601.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1963
0.77
SHAFTESBURY
622.50
492.00
668.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1406
1.05
SEGRO
282.00
209.40
302.80
Neutral
Sell
-531
1.73
ST MODWEN PROPS.
290.00
145.50
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
841
1.59
211.00
147.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
1.01
UNITE GROUP
365.80
180.75
387.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2280
1.79
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
1.41
1.00
2.75
Sell
Sell
-1141
1.03
411.80
217.00
418.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1346
1.05
www.intellisys.uk.com
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
123.30
112.25
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
126
0.73
2385.00
1550.00
2420.00
Neutral
Sell
1350
1.40
AVEVA GROUP
Target
Beta
COMPUTACENTER
453.80
292.40
567.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1329
1.00
KOFAX
325.00
242.00
335.00
Neutral
Neutral
332
1.11
27.25
18.25
27.50
Neutral
Sell
25
0.85
684.50
431.48
710.00
Neutral
Buy
1014
0.76
PHOENIX IT GROUP
153.00
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
320
0.74
72.00
68.00
85.50
Neutral
Sell
-96
0.52
1926.00
1275.00
2047.00
Neutral
Buy
2165
0.76
361.40
247.70
368.10
Neutral
Buy
429
0.72
INNOVATION GROUP
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
472.60
237.30
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
1.09
BREWIN DOLPHIN
230.30
136.30
230.30
Sell
Strong Buy
677
0.73
9790.00
9250.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
98370
0.84
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
388.50
247.50
406.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1333
0.97
CHARLES TAYLOR
182.00
141.00
190.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1182
0.69
1006.00
673.50
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5206
0.86
96.25
71.10
110.40
Neutral
Sell
75
0.89
3.29
0.55
3.70
Neutral
Sell
-123
0.69
HENDERSON GROUP
171.20
90.55
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
810
1.44
HELPHIRE GROUP
ICAP
349.50
280.80
376.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1831
1.07
475.40
241.10
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3346
1.70
INVESTEC
476.40
326.50
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1834
1.56
1380.00
930.00
1426.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5281
1.15
122.60
63.25
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4457
1.32
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1529.00
1186.00
1557.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5687
0.75
SCHRODERS
2393.00
1180.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8607
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1865.00
966.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11405
1.27
www.intellisys.uk.com
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ACAL
219.25
157.75
242.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1286
0.92
AGGREKO
1800.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3506
1.05
AMEC
1034.00
923.00
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3421
1.04
649.50
212.20
671.00
Neutral
Buy
920
1.63
1174.00
840.50
1205.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2307
0.48
561.50
324.00
580.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
2062
0.76
1302.00
999.50
1342.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2901
0.55
UK MAIL GROUP
497.50
214.00
525.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1488
0.39
CAPITA
991.00
605.50
1018.00
Neutral
Sell
240
0.51
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
54.00
25.34
56.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
491
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
876.50
622.00
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2046
0.74
BERENDSEN
771.50
462.00
812.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2955
1.05
DE LA RUE
946.00
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1813
#NA
DIGNITY
1334.00
803.50
1462.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2145
0.22
DIPLOMA
548.00
417.10
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1427
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
269.00
195.20
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
1079
1.04
FILTRONA
712.00
428.00
750.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1336
1.13
G4S
248.60
240.00
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
933
0.58
HAYS
93.80
66.40
101.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
438
1.10
HOMESERVE
265.00
137.50
265.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1285
0.94
INTERSERVE
488.00
294.50
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3453
1.28
3190.00
2558.00
3453.00
Neutral
Buy
4612
0.78
46.38
26.50
47.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
361
1.17
0.72
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
30.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
220
MENZIES (JOHN)
713.00
542.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2252
1.43
379.30
341.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
839
1.42
MITIE GROUP
259.40
253.90
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1313
0.55
86.00
86.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
731
0.33
OFFICE2OFFICE
PAYPOINT
940.50
614.00
940.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1776
0.71
PREMIER FARNELL
215.60
153.20
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
789
1.33
REGUS
162.50
82.65
177.50
Neutral
Sell
67
1.46
91.25
69.40
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
322
1.25
REXAM
522.00
395.69
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1801
0.90
RICARDO
400.00
304.50
431.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1672
0.86
ROBERT WALTERS
233.00
176.25
233.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1182
1.24
RPC GROUP
406.80
365.40
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1896
0.78
RPS GROUP
217.20
197.00
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1067
1.51
SERCO GROUP
625.00
516.50
647.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2410
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
84.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
715
1.46
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
57.00
22.25
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
262
1.26
166.00
82.00
166.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
560
0.63
58.75
39.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
339
0.93
343.88
245.50
354.88
Neutral
Strong Buy
2086
0.86
79.88
42.00
80.38
Sell
Strong Buy
539
0.79
www.intellisys.uk.com
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Under Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
305.40
200.70
322.30
Neutral
Buy
356
0.91
45.39
27.28
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
90
0.70
630.50
419.10
749.00
Neutral
Sell
488
0.53
86.40
67.00
88.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
139
1.24
1310.00
733.00
1310.00
Sell
Sell
777
0.09
192.95
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Neutral
187
0.54
Beta
Under Valued
Transport
Stock
Target
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
283.70
178.00
288.40
Neutral
Sell
Target
180
Beta
1.30
410.00
309.50
428.00
Neutral
Buy
458
0.98
CLARKSON
1635.00
1150.00
1673.00
Neutral
Sell
1172
0.80
EASYJET
1258.00
484.90
1300.00
Neutral
Sell
695
0.77
FIRST GROUP
118.00
118.00
260.50
Buy
Strong Buy
578
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
964.50
545.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
415
0.77
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1510.00
1086.00
1588.00
Neutral
Buy
1862
0.90
NATIONAL EXPRESS
201.70
164.50
230.50
Neutral
Buy
260
1.35
1.41
NORTHGATE
328.00
159.60
350.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
690
STAGECOACH GROUP
299.00
230.40
319.60
Neutral
Buy
381
0.89
65.25
31.00
78.50
Sell
Sell
-47
0.90
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
378.60
306.30
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
597
0.47
NATIONAL GRID
797.00
641.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
903
0.50
PENNON GROUP
688.00
598.00
796.00
Neutral
Buy
825
0.59
SSE
1569.00
1294.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2212
0.42
SEVERN TRENT
2035.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1616
0.35
755.00
642.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
735
0.50
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
30 May 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
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Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. IntelliSys is the trading name of Intellisys
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No IntelliSys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
IntelliSys believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but its accuracy or
completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any
person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted for
the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent
or otherwise.
IntelliSys (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person may have
positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a report, and
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may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions imposed by
internal rules.
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority
and does not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
RISK WARNING
IntelliSys does not make personal recommendations. The information in this publication is provided solely to
enable you to make your own investment decisions.
If you are unsure about dealing in shares and other equity investments, you should contact your financial
adviser as these types of investments may not be suitable for everyone.
The value of stocks and shares, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise and you may not get
back the full amount you originally invested. If denominated in a foreign currency, fluctuations in the
exchange rate will also affect the value of stocks and shares and the income from them. Past performance
is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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