Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Page Industries
Strong performance on all fronts
Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
3QFY12 216 37 17.0 25 % chg. (qoq) (3.3) 0.1 59bp (7.1)
`4,265 `4,611
12 months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
For 4QFY2013, Page Industries (Page) reported a healthy set of numbers, which were in-line with our estimates at all fronts. The company's top-line grew by 35.5% yoy to `209cr, against our estimate of `201cr for the quarter. The EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded by 190bp yoy and came in at 17.6%, mainly because of lower other expense as a percent of net sales. Consequently, the company reported a profit of `24cr, 38.5% higher yoy from `17cr in 3QFY2012, in-line with our estimate. Presence in fast growing segment with strong brand recall to drive growth Page operates in mid and premium category of the innerwear segment in India which is of the size of ~`5,000cr. The innerwear market in India which is growing at a rate of ~24%, is underpenetrated with per capita spend significantly lower than in other Asian peer markets, thus providing huge opportunity to the company. With a market share of 21% in mens segment and 12% in womens segment, we expect Page to tap the opportunity and report a revenue CAGR of 21.8% to `1,282cr in FY2015E. Pages strong brand recall and pan-India distribution channel will aid it in capitalizing on the opportunity. Also, Page has aggressive expansion plan of manufacturing 196mn pieces p.a. by FY2017E from current 133mn pieces p.a. to meet the increasing demand as consumers are shifting from local to the branded products. Outlook and valuation: Given the huge market size, Pages predominant position, strong brand recall, high dividend payout and capacity expansion plans for next four years to cater to the increasing demand; we remain positive on the companys growth outlook. We expect Page to register a revenue and a profit CAGR of 21.8% and 23.4% to `1,282cr and `171 respectively over FY2013-15E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 27.6x FY2015E earning. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `4,611 with a target PE of 30.0x for FY2015E.
Textile 4,729 59 0.2 4,424 / 2,680 984 10 19,760 5,986 PAGE.BO PAG IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 57.5 17.4 19.6 5.5
3m 7.2 28.6
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr)
FY2011 492 44.8 59 47.9 18.5 52.5 80.7 38.2 52.6 39.3 9.8 53.1 FY2012 683 39.0 90 53.9 19.5 80.8 52.4 28.5 62.3 47.2 7.0 35.9 FY2013 863 26.3 113 24.8 19.0 100.9 42.0 22.1 59.3 51.3 5.6 29.3 FY2014E 1,057 22.5 139 23.7 19.4 124.8 34.0 16.8 56.3 50.6 4.6 23.5 FY2015E 1,282 21.2 171 23.2 19.6 153.7 27.6 12.4 51.8 49.3 3.8 19.2 Net Sales % chg Adj. Net Profit % chg OPM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Source: Company, Angel Research
Tejashwini Kumari
022-39357800 Ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
The leisure wear segment grew by 39.6% on a yoy basis to `56cr (volume growth 44.5% and value growth 54.1%), and Speedo is witnessing robust growth. The company sold 1.9lakh pieces under this brand in the quarter against 0.3lakh in 3QFY2013 and also the realization per unit has increased from `417 in the last quarter to `469 in 4QFY2013. Exhibit 4: Revenue breakup (%)
60
4.4
42.9
28.4
34.7
(` cr)
150
38.5
35.5
40
27.0
Men Women
48.8 Bra Leisure
23.6
100 50 0
21.9
20
176
181
172
218
220
216
209
111
154
(%)
25.6
6.5
13.3
Speedo
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
4QFY11
4QFY12
The EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded by 190bp yoy and came in at 17.6% mainly on account of lower other expense as a percent of net sales, in-line with our estimate. The company reported a net profit of `24cr, 38.5% higher yoy. Exhibit 5: Margin improved owing to lower other expenses
50 40 EBITDA (LHS) 24.7 EBITDA Margin (RHS) 30 25 17.0
102.1
19.7
15.4 17.2
21.4 15.7
20.0
25
17.6
( ` cr)
(%)
( ` cr)
20 10
10
15 10
29.6
27.5
32.5
18.3 21.4
38.5 27.6
60
40 20 0
13
28
25
17
33
17
44
36
30
24
47
44
37
37
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
31
20
4QFY13
4QFY13
3QFY12
3QFY13
(%)
15
20
54.8
24
30
20
25
80
45
40 35
Volume
34.0
40
35 25.5 30 25 15 10
(piece in lakh)
14.6
(piece in lakh)
140
17.4
22.9
30
25 20 12.4 15.0
24.9
21.6
22.5
80
60 40 20
7.1
10
($)
15
10
9.8
129
135
123
108
156
147
139
115
31
25
39
35
34
32
32
29
5 0
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
63.4
Volume
40
35 33.2 30 25 20 40.3
Volume
4QFY13
1QFY12
2QFY12
45
40
60
(piece in lakh)
(piece in lakh)
6 5
4 3 2 1
44.3 33.7
42.7
36.8
39.9
39.3
44.5
50
35
(%)
40
24.8
25.3
30
20 15
30
20
15 10
28
28
35
35
36
36
29
28
10
10 5
0
5 0
1QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
3QFY12
4QFY12
(%)
25
(%)
20
Financials
Exhibit 11: Key assumptions
FY2014E
Volume growth (%) Realization growth (%) Blended MRP/piece
Source: Angel Research
( ` cr)
(%)
600
400
20
300
200
389
21.2
( ` cr)
800
22.5
464
39.0
26.3
30
540
33.3
40
500 400
629
348 274
216 159
66
1,057
1,282
112
142
339
492
683
863
83
200 0
100 0
39
54
181
10
0
81
28
16
21
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2013E Bra
FY2015E Swimwear
Revenue (LHS)
Women Items
19.4 18.5
19.5 19.0
20
250
200
19.6 19.4
13.2
19
18
13.0
13.2
13.4
14
150
( ` cr)
13 11.9
( ` cr )
(%)
150
100 17 16
11.7
90 60
12
11
133
164
205
251
50
66
91
30
0
40 FY2010
59 FY2011
90 FY2012
PAT (LHS)
113 FY2013
139 FY2014E
171
10
15
FY2015E
PATM (RHS)
(%)
120
Outlook and valuation: We expect Page to register a revenue CAGR of 21.8% to `1,282cr over FY2013-15E. With the softening of inflation and hence the raw material prices, we expect marginal improvement in the operating margin to 19.6% in FY2015E. Consequently the profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 23.4% to `171cr. Given the huge market size, Pages predominant position, strong brand recall, high dividend payout and capacity expansion plans for next four years to cater to the increasing demand; we remain positive on the companys growth outlook. At the CMP, the stock is trading at a PE of 27.6x FY2015E earning. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `4,611 with a target PE of 30.0x for FY2015E. Exhibit 17: One-year forward P/E band
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
(` )
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-12
Aug-08
Aug-11
Feb-09
Feb-11
Feb-12
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-11
Nov-10
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-09
May-11
Nov-12
Feb-13
Feb-10
Price (`)
Source: Company, Angel Research
20x
25x
30x
35x
Concerns
Competition from other players: An aggressive push by the existing branded,
domestic and global players could affect the companys performance. However, considering that a majority of the market remains untapped and is growing at a fast pace, we believe there is enough room for growth.
Company background
Page is the exclusive licensee of Jockey International Inc. (USA) for manufacture and distribution of the JOCKEY brand innerwear/leisurewear for men and women in India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and UAE. Page Industries is also the exclusive licensee of Speedo International for the manufacture, marketing and distribution of the Speedo brand in India. Page has a strong pan-India distribution channel across 1,200 cities, with 400 distributors, 72 Exclusive JOCKEY outlets and ~23,000 retail outlets. Speedo is also available in 410 stores including large format stores in 12 cities and two Speedo exclusive brand outlets located in Delhi and Bangalore.
May 31, 2013
May-13
Balance sheet
Y/E Mar. (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Total Loans Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Deferred Tax (Net) Total liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Long Term Loans and advances Other Non-current asset Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Inventory Debtors Other current assets Current liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Exp. not written off Total Assets
126 33 93 1 3 20 2 219 3 26 165 26 77 143 262 150 43 107 3 2 27 1 231 3 12 173 44 108 123 263 194 54 140 3 1 17 2 309 5 11 235 58 0 129 180 342 242 68 174 3 1 21 2 367 8 14 282 62 0 145 223 423 291 85 205 3 1 32 2 470 17 51 326 75 0 175 295 538 11 113 124 114 19 2 3 262 11 155 166 64 28 2 4 263 11 202 214 88 32 3 6 342 11 270 281 101 32 3 6 423 11 370 381 116 32 3 6 538 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
10
11
Key ratios
Y/E Mar. Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV EV/Net sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset TO (Gross Block) Inventory / Net sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/ Int.) 0.9 1.2 15.6 0.4 0.4 18.4 0.4 0.5 19.1 0.3 0.4 18.0 0.3 0.4 19.7 4.3 96 17 64 77 4.9 90 19 61 70 5.0 86 21 62 62 4.9 89 21 62 67 4.8 87 21 62 70 39.3 41.0 52.6 47.2 48.5 62.3 51.3 52.7 59.3 50.6 52.0 56.3 49.3 51.1 51.8 16.5 0.7 2.5 27.4 4.1 0.9 47.9 17.9 0.7 2.7 32.6 5.0 0.4 42.4 17.7 0.7 3.0 35.8 7.1 0.4 46.8 18.0 0.7 2.9 35.2 7.6 0.3 44.2 18.3 0.7 2.8 34.6 7.4 0.3 41.6 52.5 52.5 61.3 26.0 111.0 80.8 80.8 90.4 37.0 148.6 100.9 100.9 111.1 50.0 191.4 124.8 124.8 137.5 55.0 251.9 153.7 153.7 169.0 55.0 341.5 80.7 69.1 38.2 9.8 53.1 18.6 52.4 46.9 28.5 7.0 35.9 18.4 42.0 38.2 22.1 5.6 29.3 14.3 34.0 30.8 16.8 4.6 23.5 11.6 27.6 25.1 12.4 3.8 19.2 9.1 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Page Industries No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13