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Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, draws a red line on a graphic of a bomb while discussing Iran during an address to the United Nations General Assembly on September 27, 2012 in New York City. Mario Tama/Getty Images See More About
Israels capacity to destroy Irans nuclear program is one of the great "known unknowns" in the Middle East. What is clear is that the Israeli leadership genuinely sees Irans nuclear program as an existential threat, and that the clock is ticking. Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that Iran will achieve a "zone of immunity" once all essential uranium-enriching centrifuges are moved to underground facilities. Likewise, we know that Israeli air force is capable of launching long-distance missions to bomb Irans nuclear sites (no one in their right mind would attempt to invade the 78-million strong country by land, with the honorable exception of the late Saddam Hussein). But what we dont know is the extent of damage Israel could inflict, and whether even the most successful operation would terminally suspend any progress Iran might want to achieve toward developing a nuclear weapon.
Fordow: an underground uranium-enrichment center built inside a mountain. Located next to the holy city of Qom, eastern Iran, Fordow houses up to 3000 centrifuges.
Bushehr: Russian-built nuclear reactor which Israel would probably avoid targeting because it is less central to a weapons program.
Flying through hostile airspace: Long distance from Iran, coupled with Israels limited capacity for airborne refueling of aircraft, means Israel would have to launch a swift, hitand-run operation. IAF would probably choose to fly through Iraq, whose aerial defenses
are negligible. But although other Arab states would not break their back to help out Iran, Israel still doesnt have the luxury of launching hundreds of bombing sorties lasting weeks.
Bombing underground facilities: Israels arsenal includes GBU-28 guided missile, which could be used to destroy the bunkers of Natanz uranium-enrichment center. Extraordinary precision would be required, because each F15-I can carry only one bomb. However, the Fordow facility next to Qom is a different story. Penetrating the key centrifuge chamber would require the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the GBU-57/B. The US never delivered Israel with this 5300-pound warhead, and Israel has no B-2 bombers that could carry the bomb.
Commando Raid
Some analysts point out an alternative route to Fordow: a covert raid by Israels special forces taking out the defenses at Fordow, infiltrating the facility and blowing it up before retreating. But even this operation would involve hundreds of soldiers, landing aircraft, rescue helicopters and plenty of luck.