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Nigeria
SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS February 18, 2008

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Country Risk Analysis

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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 2008

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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 2008

hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë How to read the chart?

Resilience
OMMU 13
Moving out from the center 11

mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF NRN reduces risk. 9

7

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF NMVS
5
Macro balance 3 Liquidity
1
dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF VKMB -1

fåÑä~íáçå= TKQB
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam RKPB
Absence of event
oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF NM risk
Information

_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam SKOB
Average EM Nigeria
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam NPB

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Box 1. Sensitivity to a negative oil price shock
Nigeria is an oil-dependent economy with oil accounting for 98 % of total export revenues. To assess
the sensitivity of the economy to a potential oil price collapse we assume oil prices reduced by 50 %
and estimate the following consequences to the external balance:

2008 2008 (oil price 50% down) Change

Merchandise exports 73.5 36.8 -36.7
Merchandise imports 43.4 39.1 4.3
Imports of services* 34 20 14
Other services and income 9.9 9.9 0
Current account 8.8 -9.6 -18.4
FDI 5.8 1.8 -4
Portfolio 2.4 0 -2.4
Other capital (net) 1.5 1.5 0.0
Balance of payments 18.5 -6 -24.8
*Around 70 % is assumed to be oil related, drilling etc. =

According to this scenario, the external current account would turn into a deficit of some 6 % of GDP
and the balance of payment worsen by USD 25 billion implying a depletion of reserves from $54 billion
to $29 billion at the end of 2008, still sufficient to cover 4 months of imports. The tentative conclusion is
that Nigeria should have at least one year to adjust economic policies to meet such a negative term of
trade shock, which is comparable to peers.
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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 2008

Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
GDP (Bill. US$) 47 58 72 100 122 139 166 175
GDP/capita (US$) 356 433 522 706 841 938 1096 1127
GDP (change) 1.5% 10.7% 10.5% 6.5% 6.0% 6.3% 9.0% 8.3%
Investm ents/GDP 26% 24% 22%
Budget balance/GDP 0% -3% 6% 8% 8% 1% 6% 5%
Govt debt/GDP 94% 80% 66% 34% 16% 15% 13% 13%
CPI inflation (%) 13.6% 14.0% 15.0% 17.9% 8.2% 5.8% 7.4% 7.9%
Money demand (% ) 8% 10% -1% -2% 28%
Stock prices (% change) 11% 66% 16% 3% 38% 75%
Interest rates 19% 15% 14% 8% 10% 10%
Exch. Rate ($) 120.6 129.2 132.9 131.3 128.7 127.4 128.5 131.0
Trade/GDP (%) 94% 106% 109% 110% 107% 101% 96% 94%
Oil price (Brent) 25 29 38 54 65 73 87 77
Billions US $
Export of goods 20 31 41 59 71 69 82 83
Imports of goods 24 31 38 51 60 71 77 80
Other: -2 -2 0 1 3 4 4 4
Current account -5.4 -2.1 3.0 9.0 14.1 1.9 8.8 7.1
(% of GDP) -11.5% -3.6% 4.1% 9.0% 11.6% 1.4% 5.3% 4.0%
FDI 2.4 2.7 4.2 4.8 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7
Loan repayments 4.9 6.0 7.8 3.5 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.1
Net other capital flows -5.0 -6.8 -5.2 -6.0 -6.8 0.0 1.8 -2.6
Balance of payments -3.1 -0.2 9.8 11.3 14.0 9.1 18.5 12.2
Reserves 7.3 7.1 17.0 28.3 42.3 51.4 69.9 82.1
Total debt 30.5 34.7 37.9 22.2 5.0 4.2 5.6 5.6
o/w short term debt 2.0 2.8 4.5 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.7
Sources: Oxford Economics and SEB estimates

Rating history

Fitch (eoy) BB- BB-

Moody's (eoy) N.R. N.R.
S&P (eoy) BB- BB-

Type of governm ent:

Next elections Presidential and legislative, April 2011

Other:
Latest PC deal 2005
Latest IMF arrangem ents PSI 2005

S to c k m a r k e t E x c h a n g e r a te
70000 150

145
60000
140
50000
135
USD/NGN
Index

40000 130

125
30000
120
20000
115

10000 110
02 03 04 05 06 07 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in

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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis February 2008

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