Tunisia

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS September 25, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : jenny.nordgren@seb.se

Country Risk Analysis

oçÄìëí=dam=ÖêçïíÜK=oÉ~ä=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=SKP=B=áå=OMMT=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=
Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=áå=ãçëí=ëÉÅíçêëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=êÉÅçîÉêó=áå=íÜÉ=íÉñíáäÉ=ëÉÅíçê=~åÇ=
ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉêîáÅÉë=ëÉÅíçêë=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=bìêçéÉ~å=
ÇÉã~åÇK=mêìÇÉåí=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=
Gross Domestic Product (YoY)
éçäáÅáÉë=ÜÉäéÉÇ=âÉÉé=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí= 6.5

~êçìåÇ=P=B=çÑ=dam=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ= 6.0
5.5
~í=PKN=B=áå=OMMTK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ=êáëÉ=áå= 5.0
ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ= 4.5
Percent

áå=~=éáÅâJìé=çÑ=áåÑä~íáçå=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=íç= 4.0
3.5
~êçìåÇ=R=B=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= 3.0
ëéÉåÇáåÖ=çå=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=ëìÄëáÇáÉë= 2.5

éìííáåÖ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=éìÄäáÅ=Ñáå~åÅÉëK= 2.0
1.5
bÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ëäçï=íç= 02 03 04 05 06 07

~êçìåÇ=R=B=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ÇìÉ=íç=~=ëÜ~êé=
Source: Reuters EcoWin

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íçìêáëíë=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåíëK=
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é~êíá~ä=ÅçîÉê~ÖÉ=çÑ=çáä=Åçåëìãéíáçå=Äó=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=éêçÇìÅíáçåI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=
ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=ëäáÖÜíäó=íç=OKS=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMTK=qÜáë=ï~ë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ=
ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áãéçêíë=çÑ=Å~éáí~ä=ÖççÇë=êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=~=
ëìÄëí~åíá~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ï~ë=ÅçãÑçêí~Ääó=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó=
caf=áåÑäçïë=ÉîÉå=~ääçïáåÖ=~å=~ÅÅìãìä~íáçå=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=íÜÉ=
Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=Q=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêíëK=bñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=damJê~íáç=Ü~ë=ÇÉÅäáåÉÇ=Äìí=
êÉã~áåë=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ÜáÖÜ=~í=RR=BK=eçïÉîÉêI=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄí=áë=äçåÖJíÉêã=EUç=BF=~åÇ=
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Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK=qÜÉ=íÉñíáäÉ=ëÉÅíçê=çéÉåÉÇ=ìé=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=áå=OMMR=ïÜÉå=íÜÉ=
jìäíáÑáÄêÉ=^ÖêÉÉãÉåí=ï~ë=ÉåÇÉÇ=~åÇ=ÑêÉÉ=íê~ÇÉ=áå=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêÉë=EåçåJ~ÖêáÅìäíìê~äF=
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ÑçêÅÉ=ëáåÅÉ=j~êÅÜ=OMMT=~áãë=~í=ÑçëíÉêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëíáää=äçï=áåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=
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important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

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áå=qìåáëá~Dë=ÜÉ~îáäó=ÅçåíêçääÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëóëíÉã=áå=íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåëK=eçïÉîÉêI=
íÜÉêÉ=áë=åç=åçãáå~íÉÇ=ëìÅÅÉëëçê=íç=_Éå=^äá=E~ÖÉÇ=TNF=~åÇ=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=qìåáëá~=Ü~ë=
çåäó=ìåÇÉêÖçåÉ=çåÉ=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=çÑ=äÉ~ÇÉêëÜáé=ëáåÅÉ=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåÅÉ=ëáåÅÉ=NVRS=ê~áëÉë=ëçãÉ=
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hÉó=ê~íáçë OMMU Resilience
jçîáåÖ=çìí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ= 14

mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääKF NM ÅÉåíÉê=êÉÇìÅÉë=êáëâK 12
10

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF QMOS 8
6
Macro balance 4 Liquidity
dam=EBÅÜÖKF RKRB 2
0

fåÑä~íáçå= RKRB
`ìêêK^ÅÅK=_~ä~åÅÉLdam JPB
Absence of event
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Information

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Average EM Tunisia
dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam RNB Morocco

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW dê~éÜW=qìåáëá~=ëÅçêÉë=~ÄçîÉ=bj=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çå=

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2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

Key data: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP (mn US$) 25 28 29 31 35 42 42 44
GDP/capita (US$) 2528 2828 2838 3022 3411 4026 3999 4124
GDP (change) 5.7% 6.0% 4.2% 5.2% 6.3% 5.5% 5.2% 5.1%
Investments/GDP 22.0% 21.0% 20.9% 21.5% 21.1% 21.0% 20.9% 20.8%
Budget balance/GDP -3.2% -2.3% -5.2% -1.4% -2.8% -3.3% -2.9% -2.7%
Govt debt/GDP 60.4% 59.4% 55.5% 51.3% 51.3% 51.0% 49.8% 48.6%
CPI inflation (%) 2.7% 3.6% 2.1% 4.5% 3.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.1%
Money demand (%) 4% 8% 9% 7% 9% 6% 5% 5%
Stock prices (%change) -0.5% 14.6% 7.7% 14.2% 9.8%
Interest rates 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 5.6% 5.6%
Exch. Rate ($) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4
Trade/GDP (%) 91% 97% 101% 103% 110% 113% 123% 126%
Oil price (Brent) 38 54 65 73 117 113 101 89
Billions US $
Export of goods 11 13 14 16 19 23 25 27
Imports of goods 12 14 15 16 20 24 27 28
Other: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Current account -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0
as % of GDP -2.9% -1.9% -1.0% -2.0% -2.6% -3.3% -3.1% -2.3%
FDI 0.5 0.6 0.7 3.2 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.9
Loan repayments 190 134 144 159 174 177 179 181
Net other capital flows -189 -133 -142 -160 -174 -176 -179 -181
Balance of payments 1.0 0.5 2.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9
Reserves 2.9 3.9 4.4 6.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 10.4
Total debt 18.4 20.0 17.7 18.5 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.2
o/w short term debt 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates
Rating history

Fitch (eoy) BBB- BBB BBB BBB BBB

Moody's (eoy) Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2
S&P (eoy) BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB
Type of government: Constitutional presidential republic
Next elections Presidential and parlimentary elections in October 2009
Other:
Latest PC deal None
Latest IMF arrangements: Extended Fund Facility (EFF) 1988-1992

T u n is S t o c k E x c h a n g e In d e x ( U S D o lla r s ) E x c h a n g e ra te s
150 1 .9

1 .8 E U R /T N D
140
1 .7
130
1 .6
Index

120 1 .5

1 .4 U S D /T N D
110
1 .3

100 1 .2

1 .1
90 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
04 05 06 07 08
S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

U n e m p lo y m e n t
1 5 .5 0

1 5 .2 5

1 5 .0 0
Percent

1 4 .7 5

1 4 .5 0

1 4 .2 5

1 4 .0 0

1 3 .7 5
02 03 04 05 06 07
S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

=
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3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

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