Thailand

SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS March 17, 2009

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E‐mail : rolf.danielsen@seb.se
 
The economy is facing a serious setback as traditional export markets contract and as domestic 
political turbulence continues to erode domestic and foreign investors’ confidence in the 
countryʹs future despite reasonably strong economic fundamentals.  
   

Country Risk Analysis 
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ÉñéçêíëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=çÑ=áåíÉÖê~íÉÇ=ÅáêÅìáíëI=ÅçãéìíÉê=Ü~êÇ=Çáëâë=~åÇ=ÅçåëìãÉê=
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=

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which
affects your rights.
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 17, 2009

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íçï~êÇ=óÉ~êJÉåÇI=ÜÉäéÉÇ=áå=é~êí=Äó=äçïÉê=çáä=éêáÅÉëI=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ïÜçäÉ=
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ëçäáÇ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ëìêéäìëÉë=çÑ=ãçëí=óÉ~êë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=Åêáëáë=áå=NVVTJVU=íìêåÉÇ=
áåíç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=~äãçëí=NBLdamK=qÜ~í=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ëçãÉ=AP=ÄáääK=çÑ=Å~éáí~ä=
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ÅçîÉêáåÖ=~Äçìí=ëÉîÉå=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêíë=çê=P=íáãÉë=íÜÉ=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=î~äìÉ=çÑ=
~ãçêíáò~íáçå=ÇìÉ=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=~í=ÉåÇ=OMMUK=qÜÉó=ïÉêÉ=
~äëç=ëçãÉ=RMB=ä~êÖÉê=íÜ~å=qÜ~áä~åÇÛë=íçí~ä=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄíI=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=~í=ASQ=ÄáääK=^ë=
ëìÅÜI=qÜ~áä~åÇ=êÉã~áåë=äáèìáÇ=ïáíÜçìí=çÄîáçìë=ëçäîÉåÅó=éêçÄäÉãK=qÜ~í=ë~áÇI=áí=áë=~äëç=
åçíÉÇ=íÜ~í=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç= Tourism and external balance
Éëíáã~íÉë=Äó=íÜÉ=ffc=EfåëíK=lÑ=
fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=cáå~åÅÉI= 6 International Arrivals 5
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Person (millions)
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Current Account, Balance
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ïÉ~âÉåë=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉK= Tsunami
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMU=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå= Source: Reuters EcoWin

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Ñáêëí=íÜêÉÉ=èì~êíÉêë=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ=ëÉÅìä~ê=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=
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ä~êÖÉ=çìí=é~óãÉåíë=íç=î~êáçìë=ÉåÇë=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáå~ä=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=
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pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=ëíáãìäìë=é~Åâ~ÖÉ=çÑ=~Äçìí=qe_NNT=ÄáääK=çê=ëçãÉ=NB=çÑ=damK=
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NBLdam=áå=OMMV=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=áå=çîÉê~ää=Ä~ä~åÅÉK==få=~=äÉëë=
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Ççïåíìêå=çÑ=ãçëí=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë=~äëç=~í=Ñáêëí=~ééÉ~êÉÇ=ÇÉÅçìéäÉÇ=Ñêçã=
ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=tÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=ëíáää=éêçîÉ=ã~å~ÖÉ~ÄäÉI=ïáíÜ=
íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=êÉíìêåáåÖ=íç=~=ãçÇÉê~íÉ=ëìêéäìëI=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~ä=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉë=ÅçìäÇ=
ïçêëÉå=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=ê~áëáåÖ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=ëçÅá~ä=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉëK==tÜáäÉ=~í=

2
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 17, 2009

NKQB=íÜÉ=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=ê~íáç=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=ï~ë=ëíáää=äçïI=áí=áë=åçíÉïçêíÜó=íÜ~í=íÜáë=
ï~ë=çå=~=êáëáåÖ=íêÉåÇK=kçêã~ääó=íÜÉ=ê~íáç=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=Ñ~ääK==
=
_~åâë=ã~ó=Ñ~ÅÉ=íÉëíáåÖ=íáãÉëK==få=ëìÅÜ=~=ëÅÉå~êáç=ïÜÉêÉ=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ëÉÅíçê=ïçìäÇ=
éêÉëÉåí=äáííäÉ=éìää=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=äÉ~îÉ=áí=ïáíÜ=ëäìÖÖáëÜ=ÖêçïíÜ=ÄÉäçï=
éçíÉåíá~ä=çîÉê=~=äçåÖÉê=éÉêáçÇI=ìåêÉëçäîÉÇ=éêçÄäÉãë=áå=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê=äÉÑí=çîÉê=
Ñêçã=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=ÅêáëáëI=ÅçìäÇ=ÅçãÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉ=~åÇ=~ÇÇ=íç=íÜÉ=~ÅÅìãìä~íáçå=çÑ=åÉï=
éêçÄäÉã=äç~åëK=qÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅóI=pí~åÇ~êÇ=C=mççêÛëI=Éëíáã~íÉë=Öêçëë=éêçÄäÉã~íáÅ=
~ëëÉíë=áå=íÜÉ=qÜ~á=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=~í=OMB=çÑ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÅêÉÇáíëI=~ÄçîÉ=íÜçëÉ=áå=ÜÉ~äíÜó=
ëóëíÉãëK=^é~êí=Ñêçã=åçåJéÉêÑçêãáåÖ=äç~åë=EkmiF=~í=SJTBI=íÜ~í=Éëíáã~íÉ=~äëç=áåÅäìÇÉë=
~ëëÉíë=êÉÅçîÉêÉÇ=áå=äç~å=ïçêâJçìíë=EáKÉK=êÉëíêìÅíìêÉÇ=~ëëÉíëI=ÑçêÉÅäçëìêÉë=ÉíÅKFK=qÜáë=
êÉéêÉëÉåíë=íÜÉ=ãçëí=áãéçêí~åí=ëçìêÅÉ=çÑ=ÅçåíáåÖÉåí=äá~ÄáäáíáÉë=íç=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíI=
~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=pCmI=ïÜáÅÜ=Éëíáã~íÉë=
íÜÉ=ÄìêÇÉå=íç=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=
New credits and bad loans
7,5
ÅçìäÇ=êÉ~ÅÜ=~ë=ãìÅÜ=~ë=QQB=çÑ= Ratio of NPL declined as loan 12,0
dam=áå=~=êÉ~ëçå~Ääó=ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ= growth accelerated in 2008

THB (thousand billions)

7,0
ëÅÉå~êáçK=^Ö~áåëí=íÜáë=ïÉ=~äëç=åçíÉ= 10,0

íÜÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜó=éêçÑáí~Äáäáíó=çÑ=ã~åó= 6,5 8,0

Percent
qÜ~á=Ä~åâë=áå=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë=ÇÉëéáíÉ=
6,0
íÜÉ=~ÄëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=~åó=ã~àçê=ÅêÉÇáí= 6,0
Äççã=EïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÉéíáçå=çÑ=OMMUFI= 4,0
ëìÖÖÉëíáåÖ=ëçãÉ=áåíêáåëáÅ=ëíêÉåÖíÜ= 5,5
2,0
ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=~=ãçêÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜó=ÅêÉÇáí=
ÅìäíìêÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí= 5,0 0,0

ÇÉÅ~ÇÉK=_~åâáåÖ=ëÉÅíçê= 2006 2007 2008

ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë=~êÉ=ëíêçåÖÉê=íçÇ~ó= Commercial Banks, Loans, Total loans, THB
íÜ~å=éêáçê=íç=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=ÅêáëáëI=Äìí= Non-Performing Loans, Grand total, ratio to total loans
Source: Reuters EcoWin

íÜÉ=íÉëíáåÖ=íáãÉë=~ÜÉ~Ç=ÅçìäÇ=~äëç=
ä~ëí=äçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=ÅêáëáëK=
=
=
mçäáíáÅ~ä=Åêáëáë=ÉåíÉêë=áíë=íÜáêÇ=óÉ~êK===cçê=ëÉîÉê~ä=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉëI=qÜ~áä~åÇ=ï~ë=~=ëíçêó=çÑ=
ìåëí~ÄäÉ=éçäáíáÅë=ïáíÜ=ëÜçêíJäáîÉÇ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíë=~äíÉêå~íáåÖ=ïáíÜ=ãáäáí~êó=êÉÖáãÉëK=få=
NVVTI=íÜÉ=å~íáçå~ä=~ëëÉãÄäó=~ÇçéíÉÇ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=áå=~=ëÉêáÉë=çÑ=ÉîÉê=ÅÜ~åÖáåÖ=
ÅçåëíáíìíáçåëI=é~îáåÖ=íÜÉ=ï~ó=Ñçê=~=ãçêÉ=ëí~ÄäÉ=é~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=ìåÇÉê=~=
Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ä=ãçå~êÅÜóK==få=OMMNI=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ìåÇÉê=íÜ~í=Åçåëíáíìíáçå=îçíÉÇ=
jêK=qÜ~âëáåI=çåÉ=çÑ=qÜ~áä~åÇÛë=êáÅÜÉëí=ÄìëáåÉëëãÉåI=áåíç=çÑÑáÅÉ=~ë=éêáãÉ=ãáåáëíÉê=çå=
~=íáÅâÉí=ëÅçêåÉÇ=Äó=ã~åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ìêÄ~å=ãáÇÇäÉ=Åä~ëë=~ë=éçéìäáëí=éçäáÅáÉë=ïççáåÖ=íÜÉ=
éççê=ã~ëëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=ëáÇÉK=få=OMMRI=ÜÉ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=áå=çÑÑáÅÉ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=ä~åÇëäáÇÉ=
ÉäÉÅíáçåë=ã~êêÉÇ=Äó=~ääÉÖ~íáçåë=çÑ=îçíÉJÄìóáåÖI=Äìí=ï~ë=ëççå=ÅçåÑêçåíÉÇ=ïáíÜ=
~ÅÅìë~íáçåë=çÑ=~ÄìëÉ=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=éçïÉê=Ñçê=éÉêëçå~ä=ÄÉåÉÑáíëK==mçäáíáÅ~ä=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉ=
ÉêìéíÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ä~êÖÉ=~åíáJÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉãçåëíê~íáçåë=áå=_~åÖâçâI=~åÇ=áå=OMMS=íÜÉ=
ãáäáí~êó=íççâ=éçïÉê=ëÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=mj=áåíç=ÉñáäÉK=^ÑíÉê=~=óÉ~êI=íÜÉ=ÖÉåÉê~äë=óáÉäÇÉÇ=íç=
ÇÉã~åÇë=Ñçê=åÉï=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=ïÜáÅÜ=êÉíìêåÉÇ=íç=çÑÑáÅÉ=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÑçêÅÉë=ëìêêçìåÇáåÖ=
jêK=qÜ~âëáå=~äÄÉáí=ìåÇÉê=~åçíÜÉê=mj=~åÇ=~åçíÜÉê=é~êíó=å~ãÉ=~ë=Åçìêíë=åçï=Ü~Ç=
Ä~ååÉÇ=jêK=qÜ~âëáå=Ñêçã=éçäáíáÅ~ä=çÑÑáÅÉK==få=ä~íÉ=OMMUI=~=Åçìêí=êìäáåÖ=ÇáëÄ~åÇÉÇ=~äëç=
qÜ~âëáåÛë=ëìÅÅÉëëçê=é~êíóK==cáå~ääóI=áå=ä~ëí=kçîÉãÄÉêI=ä~êÖÉ=ëÅ~äÉ=éêçíÉëíë=~åÇ=~=ïÉÉâ=
äçåÖ=ÄäçÅâ~ÇÉ=çÑ=_~åÖâçâ=~áêéçêí=ÉåÇÉÇ=áå=ÇÉÑÉ~í=Ñçê=íÜÉ=qÜ~âëáå=ãçîÉãÉåí=~ë=
ëÅçêÉë=çÑ=áíë=jmë=ÇÉÑÉÅíÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçåI=íÜÉ=aÉãçÅê~íáÅ=m~êíó=Em^aFI=Éå~ÄäáåÖ=áí=
íç=Ñçêã=~=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK==
=
aÉãçÅê~Åó=~åÇ=éçéìäáëãK==pçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜáë=ÅçìäÇ=ã~êâ=íÜÉ=
ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=~=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=Å~äãK=qÜÉ=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=áë=äÉÇ=Äó=ïÉääJÉÇìÅ~íÉÇ=
éçäáíáÅá~åë=éêÉëìã~Ääó=çÑ=~=éê~Öã~íáÅ=ãáåÇ=ëÉíK==qÜÉó=Ü~îÉ=ã~ÇÉ=ÅçåÅáäá~íçêó=ãçîÉë=
íçï~êÇ=íÜÉ=çééçëáíáçå=Äó=ìéJÜçäÇáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä=çÑ=íÜÉ=qÜ~âëáåJãçîÉãÉåíÛë=êìê~ä=
ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=éêçÖê~ãëK==eçïÉîÉêI=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÇÉãçåëíê~íáçåë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ìåä~ïÑìä=
~Åíáçåë=çÑ=ä~ëí=Ñ~ääI=íÜÉ=m^aI=ïÜçëÉ=ÅçêÉ=ÅçåëíáíìÉåÅó=áë=íÜÉ=ìêÄ~å=ãáÇÇäÉ=Åä~ëëI=~äëç=
ÉñéêÉëëÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~ííáíìÇÉë=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêë=Ü~îÉ=ÑçìåÇ=áå=ëí~êâ=Åçåíê~ÇáÅíáçå=
íç=áíë=å~ãÉK=m^a=éçäáíáÅá~åë=îÉåíáä~íÉÇ=áÇÉ~ë=íÜ~í=êÉÖìä~ê=ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=Å~ååçí=ïçêâ=áå=
qÜ~áä~åÇ=~ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=êìê~ä=ã~àçêáíóI=ïÜáÅÜ=Ö~îÉ=ä~åÇëäáÇÉ=îáÅíçêáÉë=íç=íÜÉ=qÜ~âëáå=
Å~ãéI=êÉã~áåë=éççêäó=ÉÇìÅ~íÉÇ=~åÇ=ëìëÅÉéíáÄäÉ=íç=îçíÉ=ÄìóáåÖK==qÜÉ=ã~àçêáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=

3
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 17, 2009

å~íáçå~ä=~ëëÉãÄäó=ëÜçìäÇ=ê~íÜÉê=ÄÉ=~ééçáåíÉÇ=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=éêçÑÉëëáçå=~åÇ=ëçÅá~ä=ÖêçìéK==
fÑ=ëìÅÜ=áÇÉ~ë=~êÉ=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíI=ã~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÇçìÄí=
éçäáíáÅ~ä=Å~äã=ïáää=ä~ëí=äçåÖK===
=
qÜÉ=âáåÖã~âÉêK==qÜÉ=åÉï=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=~=íêìãé=Å~êÇI=ÜçïÉîÉêK=cÉï=çÄëÉêîÉêë=
ÇçìÄí=íÜÉ=êÉÖÉåíÛë=~ÑÑáåáíó=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éçäáíó=íÜ~í=ëìêêçìåÇë=íÜÉ=m^a=é~êíóI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=
qÜ~áä~åÇÛë=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=~êáëíçÅê~ÅóK=aÉëéáíÉ=íÜáëI=háåÖ=_ÜìãáÄçä=^Çìäó~ÇÉà=áë=ÜáÖÜäó=
êÉëéÉÅíÉÇ=~ãçåÖ=~ää=Üáë=ëìÄàÉÅíëI=åçí=äÉ~ëí=íÜÉ=êìê~ä=éççêK==qÜÉ=qÜ~âëáåJÅ~ãé=ã~ó=
íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=ÅÜççëÉ=íç=êÉÇìÅÉ=áíë=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~ãÄáíáçåë=Ñçê=åçï=~åÇ=ï~áí=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ç~ó=íÜÉ=
j~àÉëíóI=åçï=UNI=~ÄÇáÅ~íÉë=çê=ÄÉÅçãÉë=áåÅ~é~Åáí~íÉÇI=âÉÉéáåÖ=áå=ãáåÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=
`êçïå=mêáåÅÉ=ÅçìäÇ=í~âÉ=äçåÖ=íáãÉ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=É~êåáåÖ=Üáë=Ñ~íÜÉêÛë=êÉëéÉÅí=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
N
ÅäçìíK=
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páåÅÉ=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=Åêáëáë=qÜ~áä~åÇ=Ü~ë=êÉÄìáäí=áíë=ÉÅçåçãó=Äó=ÑçÅìëáåÖ=çå=Éñéçêíë=
ÇìêáåÖ=~å=ìåìëì~ääó=ëíêçåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÄççãK=^ë=íÜ~í=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=íç=~å=ÉåÇI=
qÜ~áä~åÇ=Ñ~ÅÉë=~=íÉëí=íç=áíë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉK=mêÉîáçìëäó=ëíêçåÖ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~ä=
Ä~ä~åÅÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ä~êÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=~åÇ=êÉ~ëçå~Ääó=äçï=ÇÉÄí=ê~íáçëI=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=
ïÉää=ÇáîÉêëáÑáÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãóI=éêçîáÇÉ=~=ëçäáÇ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí=Ñçê=ãÉÉíáåÖ=íÜ~í=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉI=
ÇÉëéáíÉ=äáåÖÉêáåÖ=ÇçìÄíë=~Äçìí=íÜÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜ=çÑ=ëçãÉ=Ä~åâëÛ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ëÜÉÉíëK=_~êêáåÖ=~å=
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qÜ~áä~åÇ=ëÜçìäÇ=åçï=ÑäÉñ=áíë=ÑáëÅ~ä=ãìëÅäÉë=~åÇ=Äççëí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=áåÑê~ëíêìÅíìêÉI=
áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íê~åëéçêí=~åÇ=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=áå=çêÇÉê=íç=ëìééçêí=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ=âÉÉé=
íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=çìí=çÑ=êÉÅÉëëáçå=ãççÇK=qÜ~íI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ÇÉã~åÇë=~=ãáåáãìã=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=
Å~äãI=ïÜáÅÜ=åçï=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=qÜ~áä~åÇÛë=^ÅÜáääÉë=ÜÉÉäK==
=
pÉÉÇë=ë~ïå=Äó=íÜÉ=qÜ~âëáå=ãçîÉãÉåí=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=T=óÉ~êë=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ÉîçâÉÇ=~=
óÉ~êåáåÖ=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=êìê~ä=éççê=Ñçê=ÜáÖÜÉê=äáîáåÖ=ëí~åÇ~êÇë=íÜ~í=ïçìâäÇ=êÉèìáêÉ=ëçãÉ=
êÉÇáëíêáÄìíáçå=çÑ=êÉëçìêÅÉë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ìêÄ~å=ÉäáíÉ=~åÇ=ãáÇÇäÉ=Åä~ëëK===^ë=äçåÖ=~ë=íÜÉ=
âáåÖ=Å~å=~Åí=~ë=~å=~êÄáíÉê=~ãçåÖ=î~êáçìë=ëçÅá~ä=ÖêçìéëI=êÉëíçê~íáçå=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=Å~äã=
Ü~ë=~=ÅÜ~åÅÉI=~í=äÉ~ëí=áå=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìã=íÉêãK=eçïÉîÉêI=~í=UN=íÜÉ=êÉÖÉåí=áë=~ÖÉáåÖ=~åÇ=
ïáíÜçìí=Üáë=ãçê~ä=äÉ~ÇÉêëÜáéI=çåÉ=Ç~ó=áå=íÜÉ=ÑìíìêÉI=qÜ~áä~åÇ=ïçìäÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=Ñ~ÅÉ=
ÅäÉ~êäó=ãçêÉ=ìåÅÉêí~áå=éçäáíáÅ~ä=éêçëéÉÅíëK==få=çìê=îáÉïI=íÜáë=áë=~å=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ=óÉí=íç=
ÄÉ=Ñìääó=ÅçåÑêçåíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉëI=ïÜáÅÜ=ëç=Ñ~ê=Ü~îÉ=äáãáíÉÇ=íÜÉáê=ÅçåÅÉêåI=
áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~Äçìí=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉI=íç=áëëìáåÖ=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ê~íáåÖ=ï~êåáåÖëK===
 
How to read the chart?
Key ratios 2009 Moving out from the Resilience
center reduces risk. 12

GDP/capita ($) 3640 10

GDP (change) -6% 6

Macro balance 4
Liquidity
2
Inflation -1% 0

Curr. Account balance/GDP 3%

Reserves/imports (months) 8 Absence of event

Information
risk
Budget balance/GDP -5%
Thailand Average EM Brazil
Government debt/GDP 28%

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= mÉÉêëW Graph: The risk profile of Thailand is much in line with
cáíÅÜW===___HLkbd= _ê~òáä the average emerging market country. Event risk, though,
pCmW==___HLkbd oìëëá~== is clearly higher and has grown from our estimate in 2008
fåÇá~== due to renewed political turmoil and large demonstrations
which blokaded the airport.
 
1
For a more detailed analysis of Thailand’s political system under a constitutional monarchy,
please refer to our previous report on Thailand of April 2008 at www.seb.se/mb.

4
SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 17, 2009

 
Key data: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
GDP (mill.US$) 142 863 161 376 176 340 207 245 246 233 273 622 235 621 254 495
GDP/capita (US$) 2300 2579 2799 3267 3854 4254 3640 3908
GDP (real change) 7,1% 6,3% 4,6% 5,2% 4,9% 2,6% -5,7% 3,1%
Investments/GDP 21% 22% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22%
Budget balance/GDP 0% 0% -1% 1% -2% -1% -5% -5%
Govt debt/GDP 28% 27% 26% 25% 24% 24% 28% 31%
CPI inflation (%) 0,0% 2,7% 4,5% 4,7% 2,2% 5,5% -1,2% 3,8%
Money demand (%) 0,0% 3,1% 0,8% 5,1% 0,1% -6,0% -1,6% 6,7%
Stock prices (yearly avg.) 482 664 692 720 767 688 486 812
Interest rates 1,5% 1,4% 2,7% 4,8% 3,8% 3,4% 1,2% 2,0%
Exch. Rate ($) 41,48 40,22 40,22 37,88 34,52 33,31 36,03 35,71
Trade/GDP (%) 107% 117% 129% 123% 117% 128% 113% 135%
Oil price (Brent) $29 $38 $54 $65 $73 $98 $45 $59
Millions US $
Export of goods 78 105 94 941 109 361 127 940 150 049 175 297 139 200 176 611
Imports of goods 74 346 93 481 117 617 126 948 138 478 175 061 126 737 166 263
Other: 1 025 1 307 614 1 323 2 479 -415 -5 617 -2 645
Current account 4 784 2 767 -7 642 2 315 14 050 -179 6 846 7 703
(% of GDP) 3,3% 1,7% -4,3% 1,1% 5,7% -0,1% 2,9% 3,0%
FDI 4 608 5 783 7 554 7 971 7 342 4 473 5 125 5 403
Loan repayments -12 962 -10 795 -16 472 -12 743 -13 473 -15 438 -16 199 -16 708
Net other capital flows 6 539 7 468 20 920 12 828 9 297 37 089 4 109 11 050
Balance of payments 2 970 5 223 4 360 10 371 17 216 25 946 -119 7 449
Reserves (yearly avg.) 38 902 44 125 48 485 58 855 76 072 102 018 101 898 109 347
Total debt (yearly avg.) 54 638 51 481 51 367 53 668 60 050 65 078 67 040 68 346
o/w short term debt 11 317 11 289 14 317 17 138 20 205 23 018 24 022 24 988
Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates.

Rating history

Fitch (eoy) BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+

S&P (eoy) BBB- BBB BBB BBB+ BBB+ BBB+
Type of government:
Next elections December 2011
Other:
Latest PC deal None
Recent IMF programs Stand-by 1997

Exchange rate Stock Market

Thai bath/US$ (50 index)
700
60 600

50 500

40 400

300
30
200
20 100
1998 2001 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: Reuters EcoWin

Interest rates Thailand, Consumer Prices, Total, Index,

4,5 2007=100
4,0

3,5
9
tn
e 3,0 nt 7
c e
er c 5
P 2,5 r
e
2,0 P 3
1,5 1
1,0 -1
2008 2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Treasury Bills, Bid, 3 Month,
Policy Rates, Lending Facility ar 12 months
Source: Reuters EcoWin Source: Reuters EcoWin