Overview

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS

JUNE 2013

Out of breeze

Overview 02
OUT OF BREEZE

Sweden 03
CASH-RICH HOUSEHOLDS THE ENGINE OF THE ECONOMY

Norway 05
SLIGHTLY WEAKER ECONOMY, BUT NO DOWNTURN

Denmark 07
THE LONG INTERMISSION

Finland 09
STILL TRUDGING ON

Key figures 11
FORECASTS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013
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 Overview

Out of breeze
As the Nordic countries are all small, open economies vulnerable to the weak international economic trends, we have had to revise down our 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts for Finland and Denmark. We largely maintain our forecasts for Sweden relative to our March forecasts, but expect weaker trends in Norway next year than previously assumed. Although the world economy is recovering, the healing process is very slow, and at the moment there is very little tailwind to help it along. Notably Europe has in light of the (necessary) tight fiscal policy and recently initiated structural reforms found it hard to get economic growth off the ground, and we have had to lower our 2013 and 2014 growth estimates for the Euro zone quite sharply by 0.4% point in both years. The crisis in Europe has also affected China, which is currently taking a double whammy on the export front. On the one hand, Chinese exports are hurt by the weak market in Europe, and on the other hand Chinas competitiveness is challenged. The reasons are high wage growth and the strengthening of the renminbi, not least versus the Japanese yen in the wake of the announcement of new, significant monetary policy easing in Japan. That is why we have lowered our expectations for the Chinese economy this year, while we stick to our forecast for Japan so far. This is also the case for the US, although the economy has shown signs of weakness lately due to fiscal policy tightening. This development was expected, and we consider the downturn to be temporary. The US economy should be back on the growth track as early as H2 2013 to the benefit of the rest of the world. Against this background, we have revised down our 2013 and 2014 forecasts for the global economy by about % point. We now look for growth in 2013 of 3.2%, accelerating to 4.0% in 2014 (see the table).
Real GDP growth, % World Nordics - Denmark - Finland - Norway - Sweden 2010 5,2 3,7 1,6 3,3 1,7 6,6 2011 3,9 2,7 1,1 2,8 2,5 3,7 2012 3,2 1,0 -0,5 -0,2 3,4 0,7 2013E 3,2 1,2 0,3 -0,5 2,6 1,5 2014E 4,0 2,0 1,3 1,5 2,2 2,5

enough to prevent unemployment remaining at elevated levels. The Riksbank watches household indebtedness and will not cut rates despite low inflation and high unemployment. The next move will be a rate hike in 2014. In line with expectations GDP growth in Norways mainland economy picked up nicely in Q1, supporting our belief that the dent in growth in Q4 was temporary. Still, despite the pick-up in growth in Q1 unemployment has increased and wage growth looks set to be slightly lower than expected. We have therefore marginally revised down our forecast for consumption growth. In addition, business investment growth has slightly undershot expectations. All in all, the growth outlook for Norway is therefore slightly weaker than assumed in our March forecasts. Given lower growth in production and wages and somewhat higher unemployment, we do not expect a rate hike until late in 2014. The NOK will remain at the current, relatively strong levels, but weaken towards the end of the forecast period when markets start to discount rate hikes by other central banks. The Danish economy is struggling with the effects of an almost 4-year long intermission with activity growth around zero. However, we expect this sideways trend to be replaced by moderately accelerating growth later this year and especially into 2014. The pick-up will be mainly driven by rising domestic demand, with higher consumer spending and mounting investment activity. Consequently, we maintain our forecast of accelerating economic growth in Denmark, but revise down the levels slightly compared to our March forecast. A key factor behind our downward revision is the waning activity in the neighbouring German, Swedish and UK markets that has put Danish exports under pressure. However, the decline in exports coincides with a strengthening of underlying competitiveness. This means that the Danish economy is today better positioned to take advantage of a global upswing when international economic trends again bring milder winds over the slightly ailing Danish economy. The short-term outlook for the Finnish economy is weakened by the lack of both international and domestic demand. Aggregate demand in the economy does not increase at all in 2013. Foreign trade volumes and investment are predicted to fall from the year earlier, and stagnant purchasing power only allows households to increase consumption moderately. The labour market is expected to deteriorate throughout the year. Towards the end of 2013, exports are expected to recover following a pick-up in world trade volumes. In 2014, exports, investment and private consumption alike should gradually gather more momentum. Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126

Note that we have changed our calculation methodology for global economic growth to match the IMFs methodology. Consequently, the growth forecasts in this issue of Economic Outlook are not comparable to those in earlier versions.

The Swedish economy stagnated at end-2012. Although GDP recovered in Q1 2013, it contained signs of weakness such as rising inventories. Private consumption is seen as the main driving force this year as well as next year, as households benefit from rising wages, low inflation and tax cuts. Exports fell in 2012 mainly as an effect of the slowdown of the European economies. However, exports have leveled out and will pick up in H2 2013 in the wake of stronger global demand. Investment is expected to decrease in 2013, but rise next year along with production. Employment continues to grow, but not

2 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

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 Sweden

Cash-rich households the engine of the economy

Improved demand lifts GDP growth Election budget stimulates economy Riksbank sidelined SEK strengthening against EUR
Improvement in sight

The Swedish economy is emerging from the soft patch that it has been in for the past year or so. Consumer spending is the key driver. In addition, exports have finally flattened out after the extended decline. Investment activity is dropping this year, but this is a consequence of lower capacity utilisation last year rather than current developments. It will be a quarter or two before GDP growth picks up. GDP did expand surprisingly sharply in Q1, but the mix was unfavourable with for instance increased inventories. Several indicators also suggest a subdued performance near term. Next year GDP growth will pick up driven by consumer spending, the key growth engine, and an improvement in exports as well as higher investment activity and public spending. The labour market situation is worrisome. Combined with persistent low inflation, this puts pressure on the Riksbank to cut rates. However, the central bank argues that its monetary policy line is already expansionary. Further rate cuts are therefore not likely. Next year the repo rate will be hiked on the back of the improvements in the domestic economy.
Foreign trade picking up

lowest level in 20 years, apart from the exceptional plunge in 2009. Looking at the full year 2013, Swedish exports will contract. However, this decline stems from the low level at the beginning of the year. Exports will improve slightly later this year and then gain further momentum next year as demand from international markets picks up more decisively. Despite the projected recovery, exports of goods will, however, peak at the same level as in 2011 and 2008, reflecting a 6-year period of stagnation. This illustrates the difficult environment faced by the export industry in recent years.
Households powering ahead, loose fiscal policy

Conditions for households are favourable. Rising wages and low inflation have boosted households purchasing power. This year and next year real incomes will rise by around 3% annually. Moreover, household wealth has improved on the back of stock market gains and rising house prices. Household savings are high, suggesting significant scope for further consumption. 2014 is an election year. Among other things, it is likely that income taxes will be lowered, giving a boost to household spending power. This year unfunded reforms amount to SEK 25bn, or around 0.7% of GDP. We look for additional reforms of the same magnitude next year. Fiscal policy thus stimulates the economy, but generates a budget deficit of around 1,5% of GDP in both 2013 and 2014. With the expansionary fiscal policy, public spending and to some extent also government investment will increase. However, business investment will decline sharply across the board this year, as the economic slowdown has reduced the need for expansion. One exception is residen-

This year market growth for Swedish exports is at the

Sweden: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)

Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - industry - residential investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP Nominal GDP (SEKbn) Unemployment rate, % Employment grow th Consumer prices, % y/y Underlying inflation (CPIF), % y/y Hourly earnings, % y/y Current account (SEKbn) - % of GDP Trade balance, % of GDP General govt budget balance (SEKbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt, % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2009 (SEKbn) 1,533 860 559 74 92 -46 1,489 1,288 3,106

2010 4.0 2.1 7.2 2.7 15.7 2.2 11.4 12.0 6.6 3,338 8.6 0.6 1.2 2.0 1.1 228 6.8 2.6 0 0.0 37.7

2011 2.1 1.1 6.4 11.4 14.7 0.5 7.1 6.3 3.7 3,500 7.8 2.3 3.0 1.4 2.7 246 7.0 2.6 1 0.0 42.1

2012 1.5 0.7 3.2 7.5 -8.2 -1.1 0.8 0.0 0.7 3,562 8.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 3.3 246 6.9 2.6 -22 -0.6 38.0

2013E 2.4 0.9 -4.1 -10.6 -1.8 0.3 -1.2 -2.8 1.5 3,660 8.3 0.6 0.0 0.9 3.1 271 7.4 2.6 -49 -1.3 40.7

2014E 2.7 1.4 2.8 2.6 5.1 0.0 4.0 4.0 2.5 3,798 8.3 0.5 1.4 1.3 2.8 281 7.4 2.6 -58 -1.5 41.4

3 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

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 Sweden tial construction, which bottomed last year and looks set to increase gradually this year. As production regains momentum and capacity utilisation starts to rise, total investment will recover gradually next year.
The Riksbanks challenges Exports stabilising

Employment has surprised on the upside, picking up over the last year despite the slow pace of economic growth. Absence levels have increased sharply, though, during the same period, and the number of persons actually going to work has dropped instead. The higher absence rates are reflected in the number of hours worked, which has stagnated over the past year. It is likely that unemployment, currently at just over 8%, will edge higher in the near term. High unemployment, modest wage growth and a steady decline in import prices support the view that inflation will remain well below the 2% target over the foreseeable future. The Riksbank is weighing low resource utilisation and low inflation against a domestic economy that shows favourable trends in important areas. In addition to a good trend in consumption, house prices are likely to continue higher. Household credit growth is showing signs of picking up, and with the fall in mortgage rates in recent months it should continue to rise. In weighing these factors, the Riksbank is likely to place most emphasis on trends in the domestic economy and is therefore not likely to lower the repo rate further from the current 1.0%. The Riksbank will hike rates next year to halt the debt build-up of households and as signs of growing resource utilisation start to emerge. But the future monetary policy line is uncertain. If the bank instead gives more weight to the weak economic setting, rates may be lowered this year.
SEK undervalued against EUR

Rising credit growth

Fewer people going to work

Recent years SEK appreciation is a result of the relatively strong economy. This has led to a wider yield spread versus the rest of Europe and a stronger exchange rate notably versus the EUR. A continued comparatively healthy economic performance by Sweden speaks in favour of the SEK maintaining its strength against the EUR. The deviation of the real exchange rate from its long-term average indicates continued SEK appreciation. By contrast, the SEK is set to weaken slightly versus the USD in step with the recovery of the US economy. Torbjrn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 614 8859

SEK strengthening versus EUR

4 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

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 Norway

Slightly weaker economy, but no downturn

Slightly weaker economy No rate hike until end-2014 NOK to remain relatively strong In line with expectations GDP growth in the mainland economy picked up nicely in Q1, supporting our belief that the dent in growth in Q4 was temporary and that the economy will grow at a relatively healthy clip going forward. Still, despite the pick-up in growth in Q1 unemployment has increased and wage growth looks set to be slightly lower than expected. We have therefore marginally revised down our forecast for consumption growth. In addition, business investment growth has slightly undershot expectations, making the outlook for growth in the Norwegian economy a tad weaker than assumed in our March forecasts.
Subdued business investment Purchasing power growth at a low

After two years of strong household income growth, real wage growth will hit a post-2010 low as a result of the moderate outcome of the spring pay talks and higher inflation. Next year household income should improve again thanks to higher wage growth and lower inflation. We expect household spending growth this year and next year to be slightly lower than in 2012. The household savings ratio will likely stabilise at a high level. Housing starts have risen sharply, pointing to relatively strong growth in housing investment this year. However, residential construction is already at a high level, and we look for a stabilisation that will cause housing investment growth to recede to almost zero in 2014.
Healthy growth in mainland economy

Business investment in mainland Norway declined q/q in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, and a weak trend in commercial construction starts suggests no rapid reversal. Since end2011 banks have tightened their lending standards for corporate credits and especially commercial mortgages. Still, a low propensity to invest among businesses is probably the key factor behind the weak trend. Investment activity was strong prior to the financial crisis, and a high level of capital stock is probably the main reason why investment as a proportion of output has remained low since 2009. With sustained relatively strong growth in the mainland economy, investment needs should gradually pick up. Consequently, we see moderate investment growth as early as next year.

Judging from the oil companies investment plans, 2013 should be a year of very strong oil investment growth. Coupled with strong housing investment growth and good growth in consumer spending, this is the key reason why overall growth in the mainland economy looks set to be high this year. But the decline in mainland business investment and weak export growth will act as a drag. Next year we see a marked slowdown in oil and housing investment growth. But with a pick-up in activity internationally, export growth should accelerate slightly. We also see a moderate reversal in business investment, and as consumption growth also seems to stay at a moderate level, we expect mainland economic growth to remain relatively high also next year. But it will slow this year relative to 2012 and slow even further in 2014.
Temporary labour market weakening

We now see clear signs of labour market weakening. The pick-up in employment has come to a halt amid sustained

Norway: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)

Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - gross investment, mainland - gross investment, oil Stockbuilding* Exports - crude oil and natural gas - other goods Imports GDP GDP, mainland Unemployment rate, % Consumer prices, % y/y Core inflation, % y/y Annual w ages (incl. pension costs), % y/y Current account (NOKbn) - % of GDP Trade balance, % of GDP General govt budget balance (NOKbn) - % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2009 (NOKbn) 1,028 531 516 349 144 14 929 416 277 660 2,357 1,876

2010 3.8 1.3 -8.0 -4.5 -14.8 3.5 0.4 -6.9 3.4 9.0 0.5 1.7 3.6 2.5 1.4 3.6 303.2 11.9 11.9 282.5 11.1

2011 2.5 1.8 7.6 8.5 9.8 0.1 -1.8 -6.2 0.0 3.8 1.2 2.5 3.3 1.2 0.9 4.2 351.0 12.8 13.3 373.6 13.6

2012 3.0 1.8 8.0 3.7 19.1 -0.2 1.8 0.9 2.6 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.2 0.8 1.2 4.0 413.2 14.2 13.2 417.7 14.3

2013E 2.8 2.3 5.7 3.1 12.0 -0.2 -1.2 -4.5 1.2 3.2 1.3 2.6 3.6 1.9 1.4 3.6 330.9 11.1 10.3 340.0 11.5

2014E 2.8 2.0 2.4 1.7 4.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.9 1.7 2.2 3.7 1.4 1.6 4.0 391.1 12.3 11.4 400.0 12.6

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 Norway labour supply growth. Notably groups not entitled to unemployment benefits are hit, for example students looking for part-time jobs. But unemployment in the construction sector is also heading higher. With growth of some 2% this year and 2% next year, demand for labour should rise, while labour supply growth fades. Consequently, the rise in unemployment should level out.
Wage growth and inflation to remain low Subdued business investment almost everywhere

The pay rises agreed at the centralised pay talks this year were lower than expected, and the labour market has weakened, suggesting decelerating wage growth. However, with good capacity to pay wages in parts of the business sector and competition for qualified labour in some sectors, wage growth should remain fairly elevated. Core inflation might rise in the years ahead, notably because the effect on import prices of the latest NOK appreciation will fade.
Interest rates to remain low for a long time

Modest spending growth due to low income growth

Despite a marginal uptick in coming years, core inflation looks set to stay well below the 2% target. Wage growth will be lower than the level compatible with the inflation target, economic growth will be moderate and unemployment higher than in the past couple of years. This could justify a rate cut by Norges Bank, but fears of renewed strong growth in house prices and household indebtedness suggest that the bank will keep rates on hold. Towards end-2014 a rate hike may be on the cards. By that time interest rate expectations internationally will have risen considerably, and the NOK should have weakened somewhat. Over the past months the NOK, though still relatively strong, has weakened. We expect the NOK to stay relatively strong in the years ahead, although with time it will weaken from current levels. Should the NOK strengthen markedly, it will trigger speculation about a rate cut, which suggests that the strengthening will be brief. Conversely, should it weaken markedly, it might prompt Norges Bank to hike rates.
Labour market trends lead to uncertainty

Weaker labour market

5 % y/y 4 3 2 1 Employment 0 -1 -2 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 0 -1 -2 % of the labour force Unemployment, rhs 5 4 3 2 1

Labour force

Our forecast of a relatively stable NOK this year and most of next year is based on the view that nothing in the domestic economy points to any major changes in the interest rate level. At this juncture, the biggest uncertainty going forward is the labour market. If labour immigration continues unabated, unemployment could rise further. A growing mismatch between supply and demand for labour might also push unemployment higher. In the event of sharply rising unemployment from current levels Norges Bank will choose a more expansionary monetary policy line. This scenario implies somewhat lower interest rates and a weaker NOK. Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Sustained NOK strength

8.1 EURNOK 7.9 % points 1.0 1.2

7.7

EURNOK

1.4

7.5

1.6

7.3 Spread Norwegian and Euro 2y rate, reversed rhs 11 12 13

1.8

7.1

2.0

Katrine Godding Boye

katrine.boye@nordea.com +47 2248 7977

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

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 Denmark

The long intermission

Growth to slowly return Export engine without fuel Toeing the line between growth and confidence Late labour market turnaround The Danish economy is struggling with the effects of an almost 4-year long intermission with activity growth around zero. However, we expect this sideways trend to be replaced by moderately accelerating growth later this year and especially into 2014. The pick-up will be mainly driven by rising domestic demand, with higher consumer spending and mounting investment activity. Consequently, we maintain our forecast of accelerating economic growth in Denmark, but revise down the levels slightly compared to our March forecast. We now see growth at 0.3% this year, rising to 1.3% in 2014.
Export engine without fuel Toeing the line between growth and confidence

The easy fiscal policy is drawing to a close. The government estimates that initiatives taken over the past few years combined will boost growth by 0.3% point this year, but have a slightly contractionary effect on the economy next year. In a situation with stagnation the question is whether fiscal policy should be eased further to provide a temporary boost to activity. However, such steps could jeopardise confidence in the Danish economy and prompt a relative increase in Danish interest rates. For instance, the effect on economic activity of a permanent increase in public consumption by DKK 10bn would, all else equal, be neutralised by a pick-up in 10-year government yields by 0.70% point. Obviously, it is not possible to say beforehand that weaker public finances alone will lead to upward pressure on Danish yields. But in the current situation the gains of further fiscal policy easing do not in our opinion outweigh the potential risks.
Late labour market turnaround

A key factor behind our downward revision is the waning activity in the neighbouring German, Swedish and UK markets that has put Danish exports under pressure. For the past three consecutive quarters exports have declined in volume terms. Since the turn of the millennium this has only happened twice: in 2001 and during the big global recession in 2008. But the cyclical downturn in exports coincides with a strengthening of underlying Danish competitiveness via markedly lower wage growth than that recorded by key trading partners and through structural reforms aimed at improving the conditions of Danish businesses. This means that the Danish economy is today better positioned to take advantage of a global upswing when international economic trends again bring milder winds over the slightly ailing Danish economy.

As a result of the current low economic activity employment has been declining slightly over the past two years. It may seem a paradox that the number of employed people has not dropped even further given the past years of zero growth in the Danish economy. However, the reason is rapidly declining productivity growth. This means that instead of fully adapting headcounts, many Danish businesses have been willing to accept weakening productivity. It also means that it may take some time for employment to respond to rising growth, once it materialises. Against this backdrop and given the prospect of a later

Denmark: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)

Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment - government investment - residential investment - business fixed investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP Nominal GDP (DKKbn) Unemployment rate, % Gross unemployment level, '000 persons Consumer prices, % y/y Hourly earnings, % y/y Nominal house prices, one-family, % y/y Current account (DKKbn) - % of GDP General govt. budget balance (DKKbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt, % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2009 (DKKbn) 822 496 304 32 71 201 -22 793 728 1,665

2010 1.7 0.4 -2.4 8.9 -0.6 -4.9 1.0 3.0 3.2 1.6 1,761

2011 -0.5 -1.5 2.8 4.2 14.6 -1.6 0.5 6.5 5.6 1.1 1,792 6.1 159.7 2.8 1.8 -2.8 101.2 5.6 -34.9 -2.0 46.6

2012 0.6 0.2 0.0 7.4 -9.5 2.4 -0.4 0.9 1.8 -0.5 1,820 6.2 161.7 2.4 1.6 -3.3 100.3 5.5 -77.5 -4.3 45.5

2013E 0.4 0.6 1.9 -6.5 -1.8 5.0 0.5 -0.5 1.1 0.3 1,850 6.0 158.3 0.9 1.5 1.3 85.3 4.6 -25.0 -1.4 44.5

2014E 1.6 0.9 2.0 1.4 4.8 1.2 0.0 2.6 3.0 1.3 1,904 6.1 160.9 1.4 1.9 2.0 67.3 3.5 -31.0 -1.6 43.0

6.2 163.4 2.3 2.3 2.8 103.6 5.9 -47.4 -2.7 42.9

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 Denmark turnaround than originally anticipated, we have revised down our forecast for employment growth. Now, we do not expect employment to pick up in earnest until mid2014.
Harbingers of spring in a fragile housing market Slightly higher growth ahead
118 Index 116 114 112 1991 Q1 GDP-Growth Index 118 116 114 112 2000 Q1 110 108 106 104 2010 Q1 102 100
Note: Number of quarters

Developments in the housing market have recently given grounds for some optimism. Especially the market for owner-occupied flats in the major cities has shown signs of improvement with prices up and a moderate pick-up in the turnover rate. With prospects of slightly higher momentum in the Danish economy and sustained very low interest rates we expect this burgeoning optimism to gradually spread to the rest of the housing market. However, major regional differences will remain, with progress mainly seen in areas where demand is held up by demographic movement. Despite a tentative recovery in prices, residential construction activity remains at a very low level. And although the government with its reintroduction of tax deductibility of home repairs and improvements tries to breathe life into the construction sector, housing investment is still far from contributing positively to growth. Still, we expect the cocktail of temporary tax allowances, significant pent-up demand and low interest rates to drive housing investment slightly higher over the forecast period.
Households shaken by confidence crisis

110 108 106 104 102 100 98 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

98 20 22
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Increased purchasing power to boost spending

220 2005-DKKbn 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Model based on disposable income Household consumption 2005-DKKbn 220 210 200 190 180 170 160 150 140

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

The housing market crisis is the main reason why consumer spending remains subdued despite the tax cuts introduced at the beginning of the year and the surge in household financial wealth to a record-high level. Going forward, however, there is hope that rising disposable incomes and a gradual pick-up in economic activity globally will get Danish household consumption out of the doldrums. But hope is not certainty. If the increase in household purchasing power is to translate into rising consumer spending, the savings ratio must not increase correspondingly. In this context the housing market will play a key role in households choice between spending and saving. Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126

Slow labour market turnaround

3.00 mio. persons Employment 2.95 2.90 2.85 125 2.80 2.75 2.70 03 04 05 06 Gross unemployment, rhs 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 100 75 50 '000 full-time unemployed 225 200 175 150

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Exports peter out temporarily

260 2005-DKKbn 240 220 Exports 2005-DKKbn 260 240 220 200 Imports 180 160 140 120 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Jan Strup Nielsen

jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 33333171

200 180 160 140 120

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 Finland

Still trudging on
Slower than expected growth Exports will not recover until 2014 Investment will decrease Weaker employment weighs on consumption
Slower than expected growth

would get more steam from increased international demand in H2 2013. We have been forced to revise this view, as the pick-up in exports does not seem likely until closer to the end of this year. Exports have remained subdued this year. Goods exports contracted close to 5% in JanuaryMarch compared to the same period last year, and few industries were able to increase their exports. One reason for this drop is the export of communication devices, which collapsed by a whopping 75%. The proportion of this industry used to be significant, but it has now shrunk to a meagre 1%. The working-day adjusted production of the manufacturing industry was a good 5% smaller than one year ago, and the capacity utilisation rate was lower than usual. There is no quick pick-up of exports on horizon, as new orders of the manufacturing industry are still soft. Certain indicators, such as the global PMI and OECD's leading indicator, have continued to rise in the past few months. This trend supports the idea of a moderate recovery in global trade. On the back of this, we do not expect Finnish exports, driven by investment goods, raw materials and production supplies, to pick up significantly more pace before late this year. As a whole, export volumes will remain slightly smaller than last year.
Investment will decrease

The short-term outlook of the Finnish economy has turned weaker due to the lack of both international and domestic demand. In addition, the global economy has recovered slower than expected and global trade growth has remained sluggish. It is problematic for Finnish exports that the most important export areas are facing difficulties. The recession in the euro area is lasting longer than expected, economic growth in Russia is clearly slower and 2013 has so far been a letdown also in China. There is no domestic growth driver, either. Based on preliminary data, total production contracted 0.1% in Q1 from the previous quarter and over 2% compared to one year ago. With this in mind, we estimate growth to remain slow for another few quarters. Accordingly, we have decreased our growth forecast to -0.5% for 2013 (from 0.5%) and to 1.5% for 2014 (from 2.2%). The growth estimates of all components of GDP have been revised down. Exports, imports and investment will continue the downward trend from last year and consumption will only grow feebly. In our view, total production will not grow at all this year in quantitative terms. Due to non-existent economic growth, the unemployment rate is expected to settle at 8.3% on average both in 2013 and 2014.
Exports will not recover until 2014

We estimated in our March forecast that Finnish exports

Exports and new manufacturing orders are fairly good indicators of the trend in machinery and equipment investment for a couple of quarters forward. The recent performance of the two and current expectations do not indicate an upturn in machinery and equipment investment before 2014. New building permits and

Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)

Private consumption Government consumption Fixed investment Stockbuilding* Exports Imports GDP Nominal GDP (EURbn) Unemployment rate, % Industrial production, % y/y Consumer prices, % y/y Hourly w ages, % y/y Current account (EURbn) - % of GDP Trade balance (EURbn) - % of GDP General govt budget balance (EURbn) - % of GDP Gross public debt (EURbn) - % of GDP
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)

2009 (EURbn) 94 43 34 -2 64 62 172

2010 3.3 -0.3 1.9 0.8 7.5 6.9 3.3 179 8.4 8.3 1.2 2.6 2.9 1.6 2.6 1.4

2011 2.3 0.4 7.1 1.3 2.9 6.1 2.8 189 7.8 1.0 3.4 2.7 -2.4 -1.3 -1.2 -0.6

2012 1.6 0.8 -2.9 -1.7 -1.4 -3.7 -0.2 194 7.7 -1.8 2.8 3.2 -3.0 -1.6 0.3 0.1 -3.7 -1.9 103.1 53.0

2013E 0.5 0.5 -3.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 198 8.3 -4.0 1.6 2.0 -2.9 -1.5 0.1 0.1 -3.8 -1.9 110.1 55.6

2014E 0.9 0.5 2.7 0.0 4.3 4.1 1.5 205 8.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 -2.8 -1.4 0.3 0.2 -3.2 -1.6 116.0 56.7

-4.5 -2.5 87.0 48.6

-1.5 -0.8 92.8 49.0

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 Finland initiated projects suggest that new construction will also decrease this year. Reconstruction will, however, moderate the decline in construction.
Employment will continue to weaken First signs of a pick-up in world trade volumes
65 Index 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

% y/y World trade volume, 3M mov. avg.

25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15

The economic recession will weaken employment with a lag. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 8.2% on average in JanuaryApril from 7.6% in the same period last year. With economic activity low, we expect the labour market to continue to weaken for the rest of the year and the unemployment rate to increase to 8.5% in the coming autumn.
Consumer price growth to slow down

Global PMI, export orders 3M mov. avg., advanced 3M

-20 -25

Consumer prices rose clearly less than expected in JanuaryApril 2013. The price rise is curbed by the economic recession, weaker employment, significant slowdown in producer and wholesale price growth and the passed peak in housing prices. We have decreased our consumer price rise forecast for 2013 to 1.6%. In 2014 we estimate the rise in consumer prices to be 2%.
Drive from consumption to abate clearly

suggesting gradually stronger Finnish exports

30 % y/y 20 10 0 -10 World trade volume -20 -30 -40 Volume of Finnish goods exports
Note: 3M mov. avg.

% y/y

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40

The purchasing power of households will not increase at all this year even though the consumer price rise has stabilised. Employment will weaken more than expected, income level will rise less than last year and taxation will be tightened. Our forecast also assumes that households will continue to save less. Consumption growth will remain subdued in 2014 too. Moreover, we believe the rise in wages to be justifiably moderate, pensions to rise less than last year and income taxation to be tightened. Many municipalities will decide to raise the tax rate, and it has been preliminarily decided that there will be no usual inflation adjustments in the income tax brackets next year either.
Trade balance still in small surplus

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Unemployment has started to increase

14 % 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Unemployment rate Finland, non-SA % 14 Unemployment rate, Euro area, SA Unemployment rate, Finland, SA 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5

The trade balance again showed a small surplus last year after a deficit in 2011 for the first time in two decades. In the forecast period, the trade balance will continue to show a small surplus, as weak domestic demand will weigh on goods exports. The current account will, however, continue to show a clear deficit.
Public finances will not change direction without action

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

Consumer price pressures have eased

12.5 % y/y 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0 Producer prices (manufacturing) Consumer prices (CPI) % y/y Wholesale prices 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 -2.5 -5.0 -7.5 -10.0 -12.5 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

The public sector deficit will not decrease much in the forecast period without special action. The government's borrowing need will continue to be significant, and the public debt to GDP ratio is approaching the 60% mark at a steady pace. Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942

-7.5 -10.0 -12.5

Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin

10 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

 Key figures
Growth, %
World1) USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil Rest of World 2010 5.2 2.4 2.0 10.4 4.7 1.6 1.7 6.6 1.8 4.0 1.7 1.7 -0.3 3.3 3.3 3.9 4.5 -0.9 1.5 9.8 7.6 5.7 2011 3.9 1.8 1.4 9.3 -0.5 1.1 2.5 3.7 0.9 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.4 2.8 8.3 4.3 4.3 5.5 5.9 7.3 2.7 4.5 2012 3.2 2.2 -0.5 7.8 2.0 -0.5 3.4 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -1.4 -0.2 3.2 2.0 3.4 5.6 3.6 5.1 1.5 3.5 2013E 3.2 1.9 -0.8 7.8 1.4 0.3 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -1.5 -1.6 -0.5 3.2 1.8 3.5 3.7 4.0 5.9 3.5 3.5 2014E 4.0 2.8 1.0 8.2 1.1 1.3 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.5 3.8 2.8 3.6 4.4 4.2 6.6 4.2 4.0

Inflation, %
World1) USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil Rest of World 2010 3.7 1.6 1.6 3.3 -0.7 2.3 2.5 1.2 3.3 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 1.2 3.0 2.6 8.8 -1.1 3.8 9.6 5.0 5.4 2011 4.9 3.1 2.7 5.4 -0.3 2.8 1.2 3.0 4.5 2.5 2.1 2.9 3.1 3.4 5.0 4.3 6.1 4.4 3.4 9.5 6.6 6.8 2012 4.0 2.1 2.5 2.6 0.0 2.4 0.8 0.9 2.8 2.1 2.0 3.3 2.4 2.8 3.9 3.7 6.6 2.3 2.8 7.5 5.2 6.4 2013E 3.7 1.6 1.4 4.0 0.4 0.9 1.9 0.0 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.6 3.5 1.6 6.4 1.6 3.0 6.8 5.6 5.7 2014E 3.9 2.4 1.5 4.2 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.0 3.3 2.5 5.9 2.7 3.4 6.7 5.8 5.5

1) Weight ed average of 184 count ries. Weight s f or all countries and dat a f or Rest of World are f rom the most recent World Economic Outlook, by the IM F. The weights are calculat ed from PPPadjust ed GDP-levels

Public finances, % of GDP

USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil 2010 -9.0 -6.2 -1.7 -9.5 -2.7 11.1 0.0 -10.2 -4.1 -7.1 -4.3 -9.7 -2.5 0.2 -7.8 -3.9 -8.2 -7.2 -4.0 -2.7 2011 -8.7 -4.1 -1.1 -10.0 -2.0 13.6 0.0 -7.8 -0.8 -5.2 -3.8 -9.4 -0.8 1.1 -5.0 0.8 -3.5 -5.5 -7.2 -2.6 2012 -7.0 -3.7 -1.6 -10.2 -4.3 14.3 -0.6 -6.5 0.1 -4.6 -2.8 -10.2 -1.9 -0.2 -3.5 -0.2 -1.5 -3.0 -5.8 -2.1 2013E -5.1 -2.9 -2.3 -9.8 -1.4 11.5 -1.3 -6.5 -0.5 -3.8 -2.0 -6.7 -1.9 -0.3 -3.8 0.3 -1.2 -2.8 -5.3 -2.1 2014E -3.6 -2.7 -1.9 -9.3 -1.6 12.6 -1.5 -5.0 0.5 -4.1 -1.9 -7.2 -1.6 -0.1 -3.2 0.2 -1.0 -3.0 -5.5 -2.0

Current account, % of GDP

USA Euro area China Japan Denmark Norw ay Sw eden UK Germany France Italy Spain Finland Estonia Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania India Brazil 2010 -3.0 0.2 4.0 3.7 5.9 11.9 6.2 -2.5 6.1 -2.0 -3.5 -4.4 1.6 3.2 -5.1 5.0 3.0 0.1 -3.2 -2.2 2011 -3.1 0.3 2.8 2.0 5.6 12.8 6.2 -1.3 5.6 -2.6 -3.3 -3.7 -1.3 2.1 -4.9 5.4 -2.2 -3.7 -3.4 -2.1 2012 -3.0 1.8 2.3 1.6 5.5 14.2 6.2 -3.7 6.3 -1.9 -0.7 -1.9 -1.6 -1.5 -3.5 4.3 -1.7 -0.9 -4.0 -2.6 2013E -3.2 2.5 2.2 2.0 4.6 11.1 6.7 -3.0 6.0 -1.6 0.6 1.0 -1.5 -2.1 -2.5 3.0 -2.3 -2.5 -4.5 -2.7 2014E -3.5 2.7 1.5 2.1 3.5 12.3 6.7 -1.8 5.6 -1.8 0.8 2.5 -1.4 -2.2 -3.1 2.5 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -2.6

11 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

 Key figures
Monetary policy rates
US Japan Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Sw itzerland Poland Russia China India Brazil 10.6.13 0,25 0,10 0,50 0,20 1,00 1,50 0,50 0,00 3,00 8,25 6,00 7,25 8,00 3M 31.12.13 0,25 0,25 0,10 0,10 0,50 0,20 1,00 1,50 0,50 0,00 2,75 8,25 6,00 7,00 8,25 0,50 0,20 1,00 1,50 0,50 0,00 2,75 8,00 6,25 7,00 8,50 30.06.14 0,25 0,10 0,50 0,35 1,25 1,50 0,50 0,00 2,75 8,00 6,50 7,00 8,75 31.12.14 0,25 0,10 0,50 0,50 1,50 1,75 0,50 0,00 3,50 8,00 6,50 7,25 9,50

Monetary policy rate spreads vs Euro area

US Japan1 Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Sw itzerland Poland Russia China India Brazil 10.6.13 -0,25 -0,15 -0,30 0,50 1,00 0,00 -0,50 2,50 7,75 5,50 6,75 7,50 3M 31.12.13 -0,25 -0,25 -0,15 -0,15 -0,30 0,50 1,00 0,00 -0,50 2,25 7,75 5,50 6,50 7,75 -0,30 0,50 1,00 0,00 -0,50 2,25 7,50 5,75 6,50 8,00 30.6.14 -0,25 -0,15 -0,15 0,75 1,00 0,00 -0,50 2,25 7,50 6,00 6,50 8,25 31.12.14 -0,25 -0,15 0,00 1,00 1,25 0,00 -0,50 3,00 7,50 6,00 6,75 9,00

3-month rates
US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania 10.6.13 0,28 0,20 0,26 1,22 1,78 0,51 2,76 7,09 0,39 0,73 3M 31.12.13 0,30 0,35 0,20 0,20 0,30 0,35 1,25 1,25 1,70 1,70 0,60 0,60 2,75 2,85 7,20 7,00 0,45 0,20 0,50 0,50 30.6.14 0,35 0,30 0,45 1,75 1,70 0,60 3,00 7,00 0,30 0,50 31.12.14 0,60 0,40 0,55 1,85 1,95 0,65 3,75 7,00 0,40 0,75

3-month spreads vs Euro area

US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland Russia Latvia Lithuania 10.6.13 0,07 0,05 1,01 1,58 0,30 2,56 6,89 0,19 0,53 3M 31.12.13 0,10 0,15 0,10 0,15 1,05 1,05 1,50 1,50 0,40 0,40 2,55 2,65 7,00 6,80 0,25 0,00 0,30 0,30 30.6.14 0,05 0,15 1,45 1,40 0,30 2,70 6,70 0,00 0,20 31.12.14 0,20 0,15 1,45 1,55 0,25 3,35 6,60 0,00 0,35

10-year government benchmark yields

US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland 10.6.13 2,17 1,55 1,63 1,94 2,24 2,10 3,80 3M 31.12.13 2,00 2,65 1,30 1,90 1,40 2,00 1,80 2,40 2,03 2,69 2,05 2,40 3,20 3,30 30.6.14 2,80 2,10 2,20 2,85 2,94 2,55 3,50 31.12.14 3,25 2,40 2,50 3,05 3,18 2,85 3,80

10-year yield spreads vs Euro area

US Euro area Denmark Sw eden Norw ay UK Poland 10.6.13 0,62 0,09 0,40 0,70 0,55 2,25 3M 31.12.13 0,70 0,75 0,10 0,10 0,50 0,50 0,73 0,79 0,75 0,50 1,90 1,40 30.6.14 0,70 0,10 0,75 0,84 0,45 1,40 31.12.14 0,85 0,10 0,65 0,78 0,45 1,40

Exchange rates vs EUR

EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/DKK EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/PLN EUR/RUB EUR/LVL EUR/LTL EUR/CNY EUR/INR EUR/BRL 10.6.13 1,32 130,6 7,46 8,71 7,62 0,85 1,24 4,26 42,7 0,70 3,45 8,11 76,6 2,83 3M 31.12.13 1,32 1,25 132,0 125,0 7,46 7,46 8,45 8,45 7,55 7,50 0,85 0,87 1,25 1,25 4,05 3,95 40,9 37,5 0,70 0,70 3,45 3,45 8,05 7,56 72,6 68,1 2,55 2,34 30.6.14 1,20 126,0 7,46 8,20 7,50 0,83 1,25 3,90 35,4 0,70 3,45 7,08 63,6 2,22 31.12.14 1,15 126,5 7,46 8,20 7,70 0,80 1,30 3,85 33,4 0,70 3,45 6,56 57,5 2,01

Exchange rates vs USD

10.6.13 USD/JPY USD/DKK USD/SEK USD/NOK GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/LVL USD/LTL USD/CNY USD/INR USD/BRL 98,7 5,64 6,59 5,76 1,55 0,94 3,22 32,3 0,53 2,61 6,13 57,9 2,14 3M 31.12.13 100,0 5,65 6,40 5,72 1,56 0,95 3,1 31,0 0,53 2,62 6,10 55,0 1,93 100,0 5,96 6,76 6,00 1,44 1,00 3,2 30,0 0,56 2,76 6,05 54,5 1,87 30.6.14 105,0 6,21 6,83 6,25 1,45 1,04 3,3 29,5 0,59 2,88 5,90 53,0 1,85 31.12.14 110,0 6,48 7,13 6,70 1,44 1,13 3,3 29,0 0,61 3,00 5,70 50,0 1,75

12 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Economic Research Nordea

Denmark:
Helge J. Pedersen, Global Chief Economist
helge.pedersen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3126

Sweden:
Annika Winsth, Chief Economist Sweden
annika.winsth@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8608

Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Chief Analyst

johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 6178

Torbjrn Isaksson, Chief Analyst

torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8859

Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst

anders.svendsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3951

Andreas Jonsson, Senior Analyst

andreas.w.jonsson@nordea.com, +46 8 534 910 88

Holger Sandte, Chief Analyst

holger.sandte@nordea.com, +45 3333 1191

Bengt Rostrm, Senior Analyst

bengt.rostrom@nordea.com, +46 8 614 8378

Jan Strup Nielsen, Senior Analyst

jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com, +45 3333 3171

Lena Sellgren, Senior Analyst

lena.sellgren@nordea.com, +46 8 614 88 62

Amy Yuan Zhuang, Senior Analyst

amy.yuan.zhuang@nordea.com, +45 3333 5607

Linus Lauri, Assistant Analyst

linus.lauri@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Aurelija Augulyte, Senior Analyst

aurelija.augulyte@nordea.com, +45 3333 6437

Siri Pettersson, Assistant Analyst

siri.pettersson@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Heidi stergaard, Assistant Analyst

ostergaard.heidi@nordea.com, +45 3333 6102

Rickard Bredeby, Assistant Analyst

rickard.bredeby@nordea.com, +46 8 614 80 03

Henrik Lorin Rasmussen, Assistant Analyst

henrik.l.rasmussen@nordea.com, +45 3333 4007

Estonia:
Tnu Palm, Chief Economist Estonia
tonu.palm@nordea.com, +372 628 3345

Daniel Freyr Gustafsson, Assistant Analyst

daniel.freyr.gustafsson@nordea.com, +45 3333 5115

Finland:
Roger Wessman, Chief Economist Finland
roger.wessman@nordea.com, +358 9 165 59930

Latvia:
Andris Strazds, Chief Economist Latvia
andris.strazds@nordea.com, +371 67 096 096

Pasi Sorjonen, Chief Analyst

pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com, +358 9 1655 9942

Lithuania:
Zygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist Lithuania
zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com, +370 5 2657 198

Annika Lindblad, Analyst

annika.lindblad@nordea.com, +358 9 1655 9940

Russia: Norway:
Steinar Juel, Chief Economist Norway
steinar.juel@nordea.com, +47 2248 6130

Dmitry A. Savchenko, Chief Economist Russia

dmitry.savchenko@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 4194

Dmitry S. Fedenkov, Analyst

dmitry.fedenkov@nordea.ru, +7 495 777 34 77 3368

Erik Bruce, Chief Analyst

erik.bruce@nordea.com, +47 2248 4449

Poland:
Piotr Bujak, Chief Economist Poland

Thina M. Saltvedt, Chief Analyst

thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com, +47 2248 7993

Katrine Godding Boye, Senior Analyst

katrine.godding.boye@nordea.com, +47 2248 7977

Bjrnar Tonhaugen, Senior Analyst

bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com, +47 2248 7959

13 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

NORDEA MARKETS

Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. Nordea, Markets Division Nordea Bank Norge ASA 17 Middelthuns gt. PO Box 1166 Sentrum N-0107 Oslo +47 2248 5000 Nordea AB (publ) 10 Hamngatan SE-105 71 Stockholm +46 8 614 7000 Nordea Bank Finland Plc Aleksis Kiven katu 9, Helsinki FIN-00020 Nordea +358 9 1651 Nordea Bank Danmark A/S 3 Strandgade PO Box 850 DK-0900 Copenhagen C +45 3333 3333

14 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK NORDICS JUNE 2013

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