DAILY I FOREX REPORT 12TH JUN 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

HEADLINES

Major Dislocation for AUD, NZD, JPY after BoJ Holds; EUR/JPY Under 129 Euro Rises As Merkel Says Government Will Argue Before Court In Favor Of OMT

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3255 TGT 1.3275/.1.3295 SL 1.3225

A quick at the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) and one would be led to believe that risk appetite has slightly improved overnight and the past five days losses of 0.14% and -0.66% respectively. Using a bit of FX-styled Dupont analysis on the USDOLLAR, and we can see which individual currencies are having the greatest impact on the headline; and its clear that the meager overnight loss does not fully encapsulate whats transpired the past 24-hours. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars have been absolutely pummeled again, falling by over -1.25% each against the US Dollar and over -3.00% each against the Japanese Yen. At present time, the AUDUSD is at its lowest exchange rate since September 2010, while the NZDUSD is at its lowest rate in 52-weeks. Similarly, the AUDJPY has retraced all of its gains in 2013, while the NZDJPY has receded to its lowest level since late-February.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.70 TGT 98.50/98.30 SL 99.00

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5600 TGT 1.5620/1.5640 SL 1.5580

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0000(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 63.5912(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.36(BWARI SIGNAL) RSI => 66.99(BEARI SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 49.5302(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.00002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50.5764(BEARISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0405(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>57.0189(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER

Date
Sun Jun 9

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

01:30

CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CNY New Yuan Loans (MAY) CNY Money Supply M2 (YoY) (MAY) CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (MAY) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAY) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (MAY) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) NZD Manufacturing Activity (1Q) NZD Manufacturing Activity Volume s.a. (QoQ) (1Q) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q F) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q F) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (APR) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (APR) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (MAY) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (MAY) JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (APR) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (APR)

High

2.1%

2.5%

2.4%

01:30

Medium

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.6%

02:15

Medium

667.4B

815.0B

792.9B

02:15

Medium

15.8%

15.9%

16.1%

05:30

Medium

20.4%

20.5%

20.6%

05:30

Medium

9.4%

9.4%

9.4%

05:30

Medium

9.2%

9.4%

9.3%

05:30

Medium

12.6%

12.6%

12.5%

05:30

Medium

12.9%

12.9%

12.8%

22:45

Low

0.2%

-0.1%

22:45

Low

-0.6%

1.4%

23:50

High

4.1%

3.5%

3.5%

23:50

High

1.0%

0.9%

0.3%

23:50

High

0.6%

0.4%

0.4%

23:50

Medium

-818.8B

-729.9B

-219.9B

23:50

Low

852.7B

380.0B

342.4B

23:50

Low

2.1%

2.2%

2.1%

23:50

Low

1.8%

1.8%

1.7%

23:50

Low

100.8%

5.7%

-4.3%

23:50

Low

750.0B

350.0B

1251.2B

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

23:50
Mon Jun 10

JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q F) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (MAY) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAY) JPY Consumer Confidence (MAY) CHF Unemployment Rate (MAY) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAY) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAY) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q F) CAD Housing Starts (MAY) USD St. Louis Fed's Bullard to Speak in Montreal USD Fed's Southeast New Mexico Economy Free Conference NZD New Zealand Manpower Survey (3Q) NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy Traffic (MAY) AUD Australia Manpower Survey (3Q) GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAY) JPY BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (2Q) JPY BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (2Q)

Low

-1.1%

-1.2%

-1.2%

00:00

Low

7.1%

7.1%

04:30

Medium

-8.97%

-10.45%

05:00

Medium

45.7

44.7

44.5

05:45

Medium

3.0%

3.0%

3.1%

05:45

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

3.1%

06:00

Medium

55.7

56.0

56.5

06:00

Medium

56.2

56.6

57.8

07:15

Medium

3.3%

-0.8%

08:30

Medium

-11.6

-11.3

-15.6

09:00

Medium

-2.4%

-2.3%

-2.3%

09:00

Low

-0.6%

-0.5%

-0.5%

12:15

Medium

200.2K

179.1K

174.9K

13:50

Low

18:00

Low

20:30

Low

21%

23%

22:00

Low

4.7%

22:30

Low

5%

8%

23:01

Medium

5.0%

3.0%

1.0%

23:50

Medium

5.9

23:50

Low

5.0

-4.6

23:50

JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (MAY) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY) CAD International Economic Forum Conference of Montreal

Low

3.4%

3.5%

3.2%

23:50
Tue Jun 11

Low

2.8%

2.8%

2.6%

Low

00:00

JPY Japan Manpower Survey (3Q) CNY China Manpower Survey (3Q) AUD Home Loans (APR) AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAY) AUD Owner-Occupied Home Loan Value (MoM) (APR) AUD Investment Lending (APR) AUD NAB Business Conditions (MAY) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (JUN 11) JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (JUN 11) CHF SECO June 2013 Economic Forecasts JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P) JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Press Conference After Rate Decision GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (APR) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (APR) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (APR) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (APR) EUR German Court Hearing on ESM

Low

15.0

11.0

00:01

Low

12%

18%

01:30

Medium

0.8%

2.0%

4.8%

01:30

Medium

-1

-1

01:30

Medium

-0.9%

5.1%

01:30

Low

1.1%

1.4%

01:30

Low

-4

-6

02:48

High

02:48

High

0.10%

0.10%

02:48

Medium

270T

270T

05:45

Medium

06:00

Medium

-7.4%

-23.6%

06:30

High

08:30

Medium

-0.6%

-0.6%

-1.4%

08:30

Medium

-0.5%

-0.3%

-1.4%

08:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

0.7%

08:30

Low

-0.2%

-0.2%

1.1%

09:00

Medium

11:30

USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAY) GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MAY) USD JOLTs Job Openings (APR) USD Wholesale Inventories (APR) USD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (APR) NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MAY) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (MAY) JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (APR) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (MAY) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (MAY) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (APR) JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (APR) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUN) AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUN) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (APR) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (APR) JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for June (Table) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAY F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY F)

Low

94.4

92.1

92.1

14:00

High

0.8%

14:00

Low

3875

3844

14:00

Low

0.2%

0.4%

14:00

Low

-0.1%

-1.6%

22:45

Medium

0.5%

0.6%

22:45

Medium

1.1%

23:50

Medium

-4.3%

2.4%

23:50

Low

0.2%

0.3%

23:50

Low

0.6%

0.0%

23:50

Low

1.47%

23:50
Wed Jun 12

Low

-8.1%

14.2%

00:30

Medium

-7.0%

00:30

Low

97.6

01:30

Low

$A49.7B

01:30

Low

$A20.2B

05:00

Low

06:00

Medium

1.7%

1.7%

06:00

Medium

1.5%

1.5%

06:00

Low

0.3%

0.3%

06:00

Low

0.4%

0.4%

08:30

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/(YoY)) (APR) GBP Claimant Count Rate (MAY) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (APR) GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (APR) GBP Jobless Claims Change (MAY) GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/(YoY)) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 7) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (MAY) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (MAY) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (MAY) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUN 7) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUN 7) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUN 7) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUN 7) USD Monthly Budget Statement (MAY) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUN 13) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUN 7) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUN 7) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUN 7)

Medium

0.2%

0.4%

08:30
LIVE

Medium

4.5%

4.5%

08:30
LIVE

Medium

-11K

-43K

08:30

Medium

7.8%

7.8%

08:30

Medium

-5.0K

-7.3K

08:30

Low

0.8%

0.8%

09:00

Medium

-1.1%

-1.7%

09:00

Low

0.0%

1.0%

11:00

Low

-11.5%

13:00

Low

0.1%

0.2%

13:00

Low

2.0%

13:00

Low

153.68

14:30

Low

-484K

14:30

Low

-6267K

14:30

Low

2611K

14:30

Low

-366K

18:00

Medium

-$110.0B

21:00
LIVE

High

2.50%

2.50%

23:50

Medium

-1172.5B

23:50

Medium

-137.3B

23:50

Low

-119.7B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUN 7) EUR Germany Third Quarter Manpower Employment Outlook (Table) JPY BoJ Board Member Shirai Speaks With Business Leaders JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for June (Table)

Low

-191.1B

Thu Jun 13

Low

Low

Low

01:00

AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUN) AUD Employment Change (MAY) AUD Unemployment Rate (MAY) AUD Full Time Employment Change (MAY) AUD Part Time Employment Change (MAY) AUD Participation Rate (MAY) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAY) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAY) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAY) EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report USD Advance Retail Sales (MAY) CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (APR) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 8) USD Retail Sales Less Autos (MAY) CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (1Q) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Medium

2.3%

01:30
LIVE

High

-10.0K

50.1K

01:30
LIVE

High

5.6%

5.5%

01:30

Medium

34.5K

01:30

Low

15.6K

01:30

Low

65.2%

65.3%

06:00

Low

-0.2%

06:00

Low

-0.4%

07:15

Medium

0.1%

-0.1%

07:15

Low

0.0%

0.2%

08:00 12:30
LIVE

High

High

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

1.9%

2.0%

12:30

Medium

345K

346K

12:30

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

12:30

Low

81.5%

80.7%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

USD Continuing Claims (JUN 1) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (MAY) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (MAY) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (MAY) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (MAY) USD Business Inventories (APR) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUN 7) NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (MAY) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (MAY) JPY Bank of Japan May 21-22 meeting minutes NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (MAY) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (MAY) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MAY) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (MAY) EUR Rome to Host Meeting on Youth Employment Before June EU Summit

Low

2984K

2952K

12:30

Low

0.0%

-0.5%

12:30

Low

-1.4%

-2.6%

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.5%

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.6%

14:00

Medium

0.3%

0.0%

14:30

Low

111

22:30

Medium

54.5

22:45

Low

0.2%

23:50
Fri Jun 14

High

Medium

25.2%

Medium

0.40%

Low

3661.5

Low

0.8%

Low

03:00

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAY) EUR Italian General Government Debt (APR) GBP Construction Output (YoY) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY F) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)

Low

69.0%

08:30

Low

2034.7B

08:30

Low

-4.1%

-7.4%

09:00

High

1.2%

1.2%

09:00

High

1.4%

09:00

Medium

0.1%

-0.1%

09:00

EUR Euro-Zone Employment (YoY) (1Q) EUR Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ) (1Q) USD Current Account Balance (1Q) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (APR) USD Annual Revisions: Current Account USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAY) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY) USD Industrial Production (MAY) USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (MAY) USD Capacity Utilization (MAY) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUN P)

Medium

-0.8%

09:00

Low

-0.3%

12:30

Medium

-$111.0B

-$110.4B

12:30

Medium

1.7%

1.7%

12:30

Medium

1.4%

0.6%

12:30

Low

0.3%

-0.3%

12:30

Low

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.1%

-0.7%

13:15

Medium

0.2%

-0.5%

13:15

Medium

0.2%

-0.4%

13:15 13:55
LIVE

Low

77.8%

77.8%

High

84.5

84.5

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300