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Under-5 Mortality Forecast

2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050

Est. Min.
60,009,840
35,453,200
11,029,200
0

Est. Max.
60,009,840
35,453,200
14,512,080
6,298,900

2010-2050

106,492,240

116,274,020

Mortalities of Children Under Five Years of Age (U5M)


Regression Analysis (Since 1990, Cumulative)
219,904,560

35,000
30,000
25,000

350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000

20,000

200,000,000

15,000

150,000,000

10,000

100,000,000

5,000

50,000,000

CUMULATIVE
DEATHS

DEATHS
PER DAY

Source: "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality"


by UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

YEAR

Under-5 Mortalities, CUMULATIVE (since 1990; 1990-2013: 219,904,560)


Under-5 Mortalities, PER DAY (avg., since 1990; 1990-2013: 25,086)

Year
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011

Neonatal
Mortalities
(<1m)
4,362,000
4,068,000
3,686,000
3,321,000
3,016,000
2,955,000

Infant
Mortalities
(<12m)
8,354,000
7,421,000
6,707,000
5,801,000
5,131,000
4,989,000

Under-5
Mortalities
(<5y)
11,968,000
10,770,000
9,562,000
8,198,000
7,148,000
6,914,000

(A) Neonatal
(less Infant)
Mortalities
(<1m)
4,362,000
4,068,000
3,686,000
3,321,000
3,016,000
2,955,000

(B) Infant
Mortalities
(1m-12m)
3,992,000
3,353,000
3,021,000
2,480,000
2,115,000
2,034,000

(C) Under-5
(less Infant
and Neonatal)
Under-5
Mortalities
Mortalities
(12m-60m) (<5y) (A+B+C)
3,614,000
3,349,000
2,855,000
2,397,000
2,017,000
1,925,000

11,968,000
10,770,000
9,562,000
8,198,000
7,148,000
6,914,000

Source: Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
* Figures in bold indicate actual numbers from Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency
Group for Child Mortality Estimation

MORTALITIES PER YEAR

Under-5 Mortality Forecast

2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050

Est. Min.
60,009,840
35,453,200
11,029,200
0

Est. Max.
60,009,840
35,453,200
14,512,080
6,298,900

2010-2050

106,492,240

116,274,020

14,000,000

Mortalities of Children Under Five Years of Age (U5M)


Regression Analysis (Since 1990, per Annum)

12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

YEAR

Neonatal Mortalities (<1m)


Linear (Neonatal Mortalities (<1m) )
Infant (less Neonatal) Mortalities (1m-12m)
Linear (Infant (less Neonatal) Mortalities (1m-12m) )
Under-5 (less Infant and Neonatal) Mortalities (12m-60m)
Linear (Under-5 (less Infant and Neonatal) Mortalities (12m-60m) )
Under-5 Mortalities (<5y)
Linear (Under-5 Mortalities (<5y) )

f(x) = -343900x + 4722300


R = 0.9981035838
f(x) = -462700x + 4380300
R = 0.9900473762
f(x) = -414600x + 4090200
R = 0.9925950273
f(x) = -1221200x + 13192800
R = 0.9988400744

Source: "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" by UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

Year
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011

Neonatal
Mortalities
(<1m)
4,362,000
4,068,000
3,686,000
3,321,000
3,016,000
2,955,000

Infant
Mortalities
(<12m)
8,354,000
7,421,000
6,707,000
5,801,000
5,131,000
4,989,000

Under-5
Mortalities
(<5y)
11,968,000
10,770,000
9,562,000
8,198,000
7,148,000
6,914,000

(A) Neonatal
(less Infant)
Mortalities
(<1m)
4,362,000
4,068,000
3,686,000
3,321,000
3,016,000
2,955,000

(B) Infant
Mortalities
(1m-12m)
3,992,000
3,353,000
3,021,000
2,480,000
2,115,000
2,034,000

(C) Under-5
(less Infant
and Neonatal)
Under-5
Mortalities
Mortalities
(12m-60m) (<5y) (A+B+C)
3,614,000
3,349,000
2,855,000
2,397,000
2,017,000
1,925,000

11,968,000
10,770,000
9,562,000
8,198,000
7,148,000
6,914,000

Source: Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
* Figures in bold indicate actual numbers from Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency
Group for Child Mortality Estimation

Year

Under-5
Mortalities,
CUMULATIVE
(since 1990);
1990-2013:
219,904,560

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050

11,968,000
23,695,360
35,178,480
46,417,360
57,412,000
68,162,400
78,668,560
88,930,480
98,948,160
108,721,600
118,250,800
127,535,760
136,576,480
145,372,960
153,925,200
162,233,200
170,296,960
178,116,480
185,691,760
193,022,800
200,109,600
206,952,160
213,550,480
219,904,560
226,014,400
231,880,000
237,501,360
242,878,480
248,011,360
252,900,000
257,544,400
261,944,560
266,100,480
270,012,160
273,679,600
277,102,800
280,281,760
283,216,480
285,906,960
288,353,200
290,555,200
292,512,960
294,226,480
295,695,760
296,920,800
297,901,600
298,638,160
299,130,480
299,378,560
299,382,400
300,321,800
301,192,420
301,994,260
302,727,320
303,391,600
303,987,100
304,513,820
304,971,760
305,360,920
305,681,300
305,932,900

Under-5
Mortalities,
PER DAY
(average,
since 1990);
1990-2013:
25,086
32,767
32,437
32,104
31,771
31,437
31,103
30,769
30,435
30,101
29,766
29,432
29,098
28,764
28,429
28,095
27,761
27,426
27,092
26,758
26,423
26,089
25,755
25,420
25,086
24,752
24,417
24,083
23,749
23,414
23,080
22,746
22,411
22,077
21,743
21,408
21,074
20,740
20,405
20,071
19,737
19,402
19,068
18,734
18,399
18,065
17,731
17,396
17,062
16,728
16,393
16,122
15,858
15,600
15,349
15,103
14,862
14,627
14,396
14,170
13,948
13,731

Under-5
Mortalities
(<5y)
11,968,000
11,727,360
11,483,120
11,238,880
10,994,640
10,750,400
10,506,160
10,261,920
10,017,680
9,773,440
9,529,200
9,284,960
9,040,720
8,796,480
8,552,240
8,308,000
8,063,760
7,819,520
7,575,280
7,331,040
7,086,800
6,842,560
6,598,320
6,354,080
6,109,840
5,865,600
5,621,360
5,377,120
5,132,880
4,888,640
4,644,400
4,400,160
4,155,920
3,911,680
3,667,440
3,423,200
3,178,960
2,934,720
2,690,480
2,446,240
2,202,000
1,957,760
1,713,520
1,469,280
1,225,040
980,800
736,560
492,320
248,080
3,840

(A) Neonatal
(less Infant)
Mortalities
(<1m)
4,362,000
4,309,620
4,240,840
4,172,060
4,103,280
4,034,500
3,965,720
3,896,940
3,828,160
3,759,380
3,690,600
3,621,820
3,553,040
3,484,260
3,415,480
3,346,700
3,277,920
3,209,140
3,140,360
3,071,580
3,002,800
2,934,020
2,865,240
2,796,460
2,727,680
2,658,900
2,590,120
2,521,340
2,452,560
2,383,780
2,315,000
2,246,220
2,177,440
2,108,660
2,039,880
1,971,100
1,902,320
1,833,540
1,764,760
1,695,980
1,627,200
1,558,420
1,489,640
1,420,860
1,352,080
1,283,300
1,214,520
1,145,740
1,076,960
1,008,180
939,400
870,620
801,840
733,060
664,280
595,500
526,720
457,940
389,160
320,380
251,600

(B) Infant
Mortalities
(1m-12m)
3,992,000
3,825,060
3,732,520
3,639,980
3,547,440
3,454,900
3,362,360
3,269,820
3,177,280
3,084,740
2,992,200
2,899,660
2,807,120
2,714,580
2,622,040
2,529,500
2,436,960
2,344,420
2,251,880
2,159,340
2,066,800
1,974,260
1,881,720
1,789,180
1,696,640
1,604,100
1,511,560
1,419,020
1,326,480
1,233,940
1,141,400
1,048,860
956,320
863,780
771,240
678,700
586,160
493,620
401,080
308,540
216,000
123,460
30,920

(C) Under-5
(less Infant
and Neonatal)
Under-5
Mortalities
Mortalities
(12m-60m) (<5y) (A+B+C)
3,614,000
3,592,680
3,509,760
3,426,840
3,343,920
3,261,000
3,178,080
3,095,160
3,012,240
2,929,320
2,846,400
2,763,480
2,680,560
2,597,640
2,514,720
2,431,800
2,348,880
2,265,960
2,183,040
2,100,120
2,017,200
1,934,280
1,851,360
1,768,440
1,685,520
1,602,600
1,519,680
1,436,760
1,353,840
1,270,920
1,188,000
1,105,080
1,022,160
939,240
856,320
773,400
690,480
607,560
524,640
441,720
358,800
275,880
192,960
110,040
27,120

11,968,000
11,727,360
11,483,120
11,238,880
10,994,640
10,750,400
10,506,160
10,261,920
10,017,680
9,773,440
9,529,200
9,284,960
9,040,720
8,796,480
8,552,240
8,308,000
8,063,760
7,819,520
7,575,280
7,331,040
7,086,800
6,842,560
6,598,320
6,354,080
6,109,840
5,865,600
5,621,360
5,377,120
5,132,880
4,888,640
4,644,400
4,400,160
4,155,920
3,911,680
3,667,440
3,423,200
3,178,960
2,934,720
2,690,480
2,446,240
2,202,000
1,957,760
1,713,520
1,530,900
1,379,200
1,283,300
1,214,520
1,145,740
1,076,960
1,008,180
939,400
870,620
801,840
733,060
664,280
595,500
526,720
457,940
389,160
320,380
251,600

Source: Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation
* Figures in bold indicate actual numbers from Levels and Trends in Child Mortality Report 2012 by UN Inter-agency
Group for Child Mortality Estimation