Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities
Overview
World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.2 percent for 2013. Indias Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in the last month. Fitch credit ratings shift India to stable growth outlook from negative. European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April. Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of cut in global growth forecast by the World Bank. It is expected that global economy will grow by 2.2 percent in current year from previous estimates of 2.4 percent in January and is below the growth of 2.3 percent in 2012. Indias Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 9.31 percent in May as a gainst a rise of 9.39 percent in April. Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April from rise of 2.5 percent a month ago. Manufacturing output also dropped and was at 2.8 percent in April as compared to increase of 3.2 percent in prior month. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of expectations that Federal Reserve will reduce its bond buying program. However, sharp downside in currency was cushioned as a result of weak global markets which lead to increase in demand for low-yielding currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.75 and closed at 80.95 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated as credit rating agency, Fitch changed the economy growth outlook to stable from negative. Further, selling of dollars from exporters also supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the Rupee was capped as a result of weak global and domestic markets. Additionally, unfavorable industrial production data from the country prevented further positive movement in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 57.72 and closed at 57.82 against dollar on Wednesday. For the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.138.90 crores ($29.36 million) as on 12th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.83,344.0 crores ($15,382.30 million) till 12th June 2013. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in May as against a previous fall of 11,800 in April. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.3 percent in April from earlier increase of 0.6 percent a month ago. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 7.8 percent in the month of April.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 57.82 Prev day 0.9

as on 12 June, 2013 w-o-w -1.7 m-o-m -5.5 y-o-y -3.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3336

0.2

1.9

2.8

6.2

Dollar Index NIFTY

80.95

-0.2

-2.0

-3.6

1.9

5760.2

-0.5

-2.8

-3.7

14.0

SENSEX

19041.1

-0.5

-2.7

-3.3

4.1

DJIA

14995.2

-0.8

0.2

-1.8

19.3

S&P

1612.5

-0.8

0.2

-1.3

21.8

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable industrial production data from the region also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3359 and closed at 1.3336 against the dollar on Wednesday. However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of weak global markets. French Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.1 percent in Q1 of 2013. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.4 percent in May. French CPI rose by 0.1 percent in May as against a decline of 0.1 percent in April. European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April from earlier rise of 0.9 percent a month ago.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased by around 0.6 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of risk aversion in the global markets. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the prices. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1394.26/oz and closed at $1387.80/oz in yesterdays trade. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of expectations that Fed will reduce its stimulus spending. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a positive note, gaining 0.2 percent and closed at Rs.27952/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs. 27997/10 gms on Wednesday. Appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp upside in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13) Unit $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Last 1387.8 27620.0 Prev. day 0.6 -0.5 as on 12 June, 2013 WoW -1.1 2.4 MoM -3.0 3.4 YoY -14.2 -7.6

1382.8

0.6

-1.5

-3.4

-14.6

$/oz

1391.8

1.1

-1.7

0.3

-13.7

Rs /10 gms

27952.0

0.2

2.0

4.1

-6.9

Source: Reuters

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX, Spot silver prices rose 1.2 percent in yesterdays trade. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $22.01/oz and closed at $21.90/oz in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of mixed performance in the base metals group. On the domestic front, prices dropped 0.1 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.43,546/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.43,788/kg on Wednesday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (July13) MCX Silver (July13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 21.9 44500.0 Prev day 1.2 -3.3

as on 12 June, 2013 WoW -2.9 -1.0 MoM -7.4 -2.8 YoY -24.1 -19.7

$/oz $/ oz

2178.0 21.8

0.9 0.7

-2.6 -3.0

-7.9 -3.7

-24.6 -24.7

Outlook
Gold and silver prices are expected to be rise in the Indian markets today as the Rupee is expected to weaken and the currency factor will be supportive. In the international markets however, the trend is likely to be mixed due to an uncertain market scenario. Currently, the Dollar Index is trading on a weaker note, thereby supporting some upside, however, if the currency strengthens in the later part of the trade then this could lead to pressure on prices in dollar terms. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver July13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for June 13, 2013 Support 1388/1380 27850/27700 21.75/21.50 43200/42800 Resistance

Rs / kg

43546.0

-0.1

-1.5

-3.5

-20.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

1400/1408 28100/28250 22.10/22.30 43900/44200

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, supply concerns from Turkey after protests in Takism Square and expectations that Libyas crude output will fall to less than 1 million barrels a day supported an upside in the prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $96.45/bbl and closed at $95.90/bbl on Wednesday. However, sharp upside in prices was prevented on account of sudden rise in US crude oil inventories. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.8 percent and the commodity closed at Rs.5,560/bbl, after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5,578/bbl in yesterdays trade. Appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp upside in prices on the MCX. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly by 2.5 million barrels to 393.80 million barrels for the week ending on 7th June 2013. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.7 million barrels to 221.50 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels to 122.10 million barrels for the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (July 13) ICE Brent Crude (July13) MCX Crude (June 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 104.1 95.9 Prev. day -0.2 0.5 WoW 0.3 2.3 as on 12 June, 2013 MoM 2.1 1.7 YoY 6.2 15.1

$/bbl

103.5

0.5

0.4

0.7

6.5

Rs/bbl

5560.0

0.8

3.8

6.2

19.9
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (June 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.779 218.5 Prev. day 1.6 0.0

as on 12 June, 2013

WoW -5.60 -4.29

MoM -3.28 1.58

YoY 70.38 73.28

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 96 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 7th June 2013. Outlook For todays trade, crude oil prices in the international markets are expected to trade on a lower note on the back of weak global markets. Further, rise in US crude oil inventories will add downside pressure on prices. Additionally, cut in the global growth forecast by World Bank will act as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices will be prevented as a result of tension in Turkey and expectations of decline in Libyas crude output. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude June13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for June 13, 2013 Support 94.50/93.60 5500/5450 Resistance 96.20/97.0 5600/5640
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a mixed note yesterday on the back of weak global markets and mixed LME inventories scenario. Less volatility was observed as Chinese markets were closed on eve of Dragon Boat festival. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX along with favourable economic data from UK and Euro Zoned. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (June13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum Rs /kg 106.6 -1.6 -3.9 4.8 -1.3 $/tonne 1871.0 -0.9 -4.7 0.4 -4.5 Rs/kg 411.6 0.2 -3.0 0.7 0.4 $/tonne Last 7133.5 Prev. day 0.9 as on 12 June, 2013 WoW -4.1 MoM -9.1 YoY -3.3

Copper
Copper prices gained 0.9 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of Freeport shutdown its shipments which is the worlds second biggest mine. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in the prices. Additionally, favourable industrial production data from Euro Zone acted as a positive factor. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7162.25/tonne and closed at $7133.50/tonne in yesterdays trading session. Sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of weak global markets. Also, marginal rise in LME copper inventories prevented gains in prices. On the domestic front, prices rose 0.2 percent and closed at Rs. 411.60/kg, after touching an intra-day high of Rs 414.70/kg on Wednesday. Appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp rise in prices on the MCX. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metal prices to trade with a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Additionally, cut in the global growth forecast by the World Bank will act as a negative factor for prices. However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in prices coupled with forecast for favourable economic data from US. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper June13 MCX Zinc June 13 MCX Lead June 13 MCX Aluminum June13 MCX Nickel June 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for June 13, 2013 Support 409/406 105.80/104.80 121.50/120.50 105.80/105.0 817/810 Resistance 415/418 107.50/108.50 123.50/124.50 107.50/108.20

(June13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (June13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (June13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (June13)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

14261.0

-1.5

-6.1

-7.1

-16.2

Rs /kg

826.5

-2.1

-4.6

-1.8

-12.6

$/tonne

2121.8

0.4

-4.9

5.4

11.8

Rs /kg

122.5

-0.2

-3.7

11.3

16.1

$/tonne

1869.8

0.7

-4.2

0.2

-0.6

Rs /kg

106.9

0.0

-3.0

5.4

2.2

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 12th June 609,550 5,214,150 183,720 1,096,250 200,325 11th June 609,250 5,198,425 182,814 1,100,450 202,550 Actual Change 300 15,725 906 -4,200 -2,225 (%) Change 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -1.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

835/842

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| June 13, 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator ECB Monthly Bulletin MPC Member Tucker Speaks Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m Country Euro UK US US US US US Time (IST) 1:30pm 5:45pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 0.3% 0.4% 354K 0.1% 0.3% Previous -0.2% 0.1% 346K -0.5% 0.0% Impact Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium

www.angelcommodities.com