Commodities Daily Report

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar - Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary - Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or publishe d, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Monsoon 28% surplus so far, covers 2/3 India
The monsoon has made a spectacular start and if the India meteorological department's (IMD) updated forecast issued on Friday holds true, the country will get normal rains (98%) this year. In its first two weeks, monsoon has covered two-thirds of the country and overall rainfall to date is 28% above the long period average (LPA). The met office said 78% of the 36 sub-divisions have recorded excess rain so far. The only point of slight concern is northwest India, which saw the lowest amount of rain across the four meteorological regions in the country last year. This year, the region is expected to receive 94% of normal rainfall.
(Source: Times of India)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 14, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19178 5808 57.51 97.85 1387

1.86 1.92 -0.86 1.20 0.70

-1.29 -1.23 0.77 1.90 0.31

-2.76 -3.12 4.93 3.86 -2.63

14.99 14.91 3.22 16.61 -14.28

.Source: Reuters

Best Monsoon Rain in Two Years to Lift India Grain, Sugar Output
Indias monsoon, which accounts for more than 70 percent of the annual rainfall, may be the highest in two years, potentially boosting harvests of everything from rice to corn, sugar cane and cotton. Rainfall will be 98 percent of the 50-year average of 89 centimeters (35 inches) in the four months through September, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement on its website. That matched a forecast by the agency in April. It defines normal precipitation as 96 percent to 104 percent of the average received between 1951 and 2000. Showers in July, the wettest month of the season, will be 101 percent of the average and more than the 87 percent last year, it said. (Source: Bloomberg)

Pre-monsoon rainfalls intensifies guar sowing

The high volatility in guar prices ahead of the peak sowing season raised several eyebrows over the re-launch of its futures trading on commodity exchanges. With the onset of rainfalls ahead of the actual monsoon season, guar seed sowing has intensified. experts believe between 15-20 percent of sowing has completed. But, falling prices in spot and futures market has been a reason for farmers and traders to worry. The price fall below the level of Rs 5500 a quintal would lead to farmers diversification to other more remunerative crops including edible oils, pulses and cotton. The pre-monsoon showers across the country raised this years output prospects of the monsoon irrigated rain-fed crop. Additionally, increased seed arrivals due to a bumper summer harvest in Gujarat have led to a 16% fall in guar prices in the last three weeks. (Source: Business
Standard)

Genetically modified wheat jitters pressure on U.S. white wheat

Uncertainty about the origin of unapproved, genetically modified wheat found growing in Oregon is pressuring the U.S. white wheat market more than two weeks after the discovery was revealed, grain merchants said on Friday. Export demand has dried up, with major buyer Japan extending a ban on wheat from the Pacific Northwest region that was imposed after the discovery. South Korean millers have suspended wheat imports from the United States pending tests. Japan, the world's sixthbiggest importer of wheat, bought U.S. feed wheat in a tender on Friday and food wheat from the United States and other suppliers on Thursday. Yet it refrained from taking any of the U.S. western white wheat variety that grows in the Pacific Northwest. (Source: Reuters)

India soybean acreage may go up 5-7% this kharif season

Soybean acreage in India may go up by 5-7% this year, said industry experts .Last year (Kharif 2012), total area under soybean cultivation in India was 10.75 million hectare, according to Soybean Processors Association of India (SPAI). Some areas under cotton cultivation in Maharashtra & MP may shift to soybean and MP may see at least 0.2 million hectare increase this year. Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are number one and number two soybean producers in India respectively. Last year, total area under soybean in Madhya Pradesh was 5.813 million hectare and Maharashtra was 3.212 million, according to SOPA data. Experts feel better price realisation compared with other crops is another reason for soybean as a preference. (Source: Business Standard)

Argentina's planned farm strike could increase corn price

Scores of grain export vessels will be delayed in Argentina next week due to a planned sales strike by farmers, potentially causing millions of dollars in extra shipping costs to be passed along to final consumers, a key port official said on Thursday. The South American grains powerhouse is the world's No. 3 corn and soybean supplier. But growers have a contentious relationship with the government and have called a five-day suspension of crop sales starting on Saturday to protest President Cristina Fernandez's trade and economic policies. A total of 149 ships were already lined up along Argentina's waterways on Thursday, waiting to load corn, soy and other agricultural products. The corn market is particularly hungry after a U.S. drought in 2012 dramatically reduced world supply. (Source: Reuters)

Guar gum Indias biggest agricultural export item for a second year
For a second year, guar gum has emerged as Indias largest item of agricultural export. And, responsible for pushing the countrys overall farm exports to Rs 120,000 crore in 2012-13, show data from the Director General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS). Guar gum, has seen rising demand from big Western oil companies on its use as a controlling agent in oil wells for facilitating easy drilling and preventing fluid loss. Between 2010-11 and 2012-13, it has registered 624 per cent rise in exports in value terms. India is the worlds largest producer of the gum. On average, the country produces 1-1.5 million tonnes of guar annually. (Source: Business Standard)

Wet, cool weather hurting U.S. corn crop

U.S. farmers will produce slightly less corn this year as a wet planting season and cool temperatures reduce yields, the U.S. government said this week. The Agriculture Department estimated corn production for 2013 at 14.005 billion bushels, still a record but down slightly from the 14.14 billion bushels estimated last month. Corn yields were trimmed to 156.5 bushels per acre from 158 bushels predicted in May. Despite rapid planting during mid-May, the government said weather has delayed sowings in the western Corn Belt. (Source: Bloomberg)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Declining arrival pressure and lower level demand pushed chana prices higher for fourth straight session on the futures platform. NCDEX Chana July futures settled 1.2% higher while spot gained 1.14% on Friday. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced in the rain fed areas Maharashtra and Karnataka on account of timely and normal rains. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in the chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX June'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 14, 2013 % change Last 3247 3250 Prev day 1.14 1.21 WoW -1.62 1.94 MoM -3.59 -2.84
Source: Reuters

YoY -22.93 -20.17

Spread Matrix
Closing 3246.55 3250 3290 3355 20-Jun-13 3.45 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 19-Jul-13 43.45 40 0 20-Aug-13 108.45 105 65 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th June 73916 43074 9496 126486 Qty in Process 1647 469 994 3110

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 13th June 73946 43351 9967 127264 Qty in Process 1180 223 482 1885

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Outlook
Chana prices may continue with its upward trend in the early part of the session. Declining arrivals as well as good demand from stockists at lower price levels may support prices. However, profit booking might be witnessed towards the closing session as supplies are at comfortable levels this season. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 15, 2013 Resistance 3320-3350

3230-3265

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Commodities Daily Report

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean July futures settled 1.29% higher on Friday on the back of tight supplies of the oilseed in the domestic markets along with delayed US planting. Although overall price trend remained firm since past few weeks, sharp upside was capped on the back of good progress of monsoon & hopes of better sowing. The planting of kharif oilseeds such as groundnut, sesame and castor has started in states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Soybean sowing has commenced with good monsoon over Maharashtra and MP. Monsoon has covered almost half part of India two days before the normal schedule. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds sowing is 1.57 lk ha against 1.56 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT Soybean settled 0.41% higher on Friday on the back of tight supplies of the crop. However, the far month contracts remained in the negative due to prospects of a record crop in the coming sesason. Prices have gained in the past few weeks on account of delayed planting and tight near-term supplies in the U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Thursday that net weekly soybean export sales totaled 480,600 metric tons. The government is predicting record soybean yields this year despite intense spring showers that have delayed planting, damaged crops already in the ground and prevented farmers from sowing all of their seeds. Soybean planting has been delayed due to heavy rains in the US Midwest and is reported at 71% as against 57% last week. However, it is much lower as against 97% last year and 5 year average of 84%.

Market Highlights

as on June 14, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.31 1.84 2.01 0.41 -0.04 -0.03 2.53 -0.77 -0.39 -0.71

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX June '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3927 3850 1517 3497 3484

MoM -3.94 -6.26 -0.52 -0.05 0.14

YoY 13.76 12.56 9.42 -8.45 -5.38

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3927 3850 3844.5 3219 20-Jun-13 -77 0 19-Jul-13 -82.5 -5.5 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 -708 -631 -625.5 0 as on June14, 2013 19-Jul-13 22.1 35 0 20-Aug-13 70.1 83 48 0 as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 2177 275 0 2452 as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 91 322 0 2195 271 30 2909 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3496.9 3484 3519 3567 20-Jun-13 -12.9 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 13th June 16459 1630 401 18490 Stocks as on 13th June 2960 3023 19683 634 52669 4330 1550 84849 Qty in Process 1608 275 0 1883 Qty in Process 0 20 110 0 1108 161 30 1429 Stocks as on 12th June 15693 1630 401 17724 Stocks as on 12th June 2960 2952 19361 634 51029 4160 1550 82646

Outlook
Soybean July futures may trade higher as poor supplies coupled with positive international markets may support prices. However, advancement of monsoon in the major soybean growing belts of MP and Maharashtra may boost sowing this year too pressurizing prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard futures July futures declined 0.11% on account of higher supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt. However, prices recovered towards the end as lower level buying led to short coverings. Farmers are liquidating stocks before they start of kharif sowing. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed futures may remain under downside pressure on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. Spillover effect from soybean may also be seen on mustard prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 15, 2013 Support 3750-3795 3486-3505 Resistance 3865-3900 3535-3550

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil July contract opened lower tracking appreciation in the Rupee. However, prices recovered towards the end of the session on the back of higher soybean prices, which has increased due to poor supplies. CBOT Soy Oil prices also traded higher gaining 1.34%. Edible oil prices have gained in the domestic markets in the last 2-3 weeks on account of weak rupee which was making imports costlier. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. Vegetable oil imports rose 2% to 9.17 lakh tonnes in May 2013 against 8.96 lakh tonnes in the year-ago period. During Oil year 2012-13 (Nov- Oct), vegetable oil imports so far rose 10.43% to 61.97 lakh tn compared to 56.11 lakh tn year earlier. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kgs `/10 kgs USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 710.1 711.5 48.48 2410 494.7 Prev day -0.08 0.26 1.34 0.88 -0.24

as on June 14, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX June '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Fut

WoW 1.02 1.62 -0.10 -0.29 0.32

MoM -2.45 -1.95 -1.58 5.70 5.80

YoY -0.60 -0.13 1.00 -14.23 -5.90

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 710.1 711.5 694.35 686.4 20-Jun-13 1.4 0 19-Jul-13 -15.75 -17.15 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 -23.7 -25.1 -7.95 0 as on June 14, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil prices may trade sideways with a positive bias today tracking positive soybean as well CBOT soyoil prices. Prices may also take cues from rupee movement.

Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices declined yesterday taking cues from appreciation in the rupee. However, prices recovered from lower levels tracking higher Malaysian palm oil futures and settled 0.24% lower. Malaysian palm oil futures settled 0.88% higher yesterday on account of good demand ahead of Ramadan. It is expected that output in Malaysia, the world's second largest producer, to slow this month and help to further ease stocks that have dipped below the psychological 2 million tonne mark to 1.93 million tonnes in April. Out of the total Indian edible oil imports, In the first seven months of 2012-13 oil year, palm oil imports increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes against 41.64 lakh tonnes in the corresponding period previous year. However, soft oils imports fell to 9.47 lakh tonnes from 13.22 lakh tonnes. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said in a statement yesterday. The association attributed the record import of RBD palmolein to reduction in duty difference between crude and refined palmolein and inverted duty structure by palm oil exporting countries.

CPO Spread Matrix

30-Jun-13 30-Jul-13 30-Aug-13 Closing 494.7 496.5 496.9 30-Jun-13 0 30-Jul-13 1.8 0 -

30-Aug-13 2.2 0.4 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX June contract

Outlook
CPO prices may decline taking cues from appreciation in the Rupee. However, the downside is limited and prices may recover from lower levels as good demand and lower yield period of Malaysian palm oil may again push prices higher in the coming weeks.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX June Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 15, 2013 Support 690-693 487-490 Resistance 697-700 496-498
Source: Telequote

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera July futures traded on a mixed note. Fresh export demand has supported prices. However, higher arrivals have capped sharp gains and have pressurized prices and the July Futures settled 0.23% higher on Friday. Currently, about 25-30% of total arrivals have been exported, mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. Due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey, there are production as well as supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,450 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13440 12985 5525 5472 Prev day 0.06 0.19 0.68 -0.47

as on June 14, 2013 % Change WoW -0.24 -1.35 -2.50 -1.51 MoM -0.26 -1.35 -7.57 -5.46 YoY -0.63 0.33 59.59 53.97

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX June '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX June '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 13440 12985 13165 13455 20-Jun-13 -455 0 19-Jul-13 -275 180 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 15 470 290 0 as on June 14, 2013 20-Jun-13 -53 0 19-Jul-13 -29 24 0 20-Aug-13 41 94 70 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 12th June Process 718 7492 8210 3924 NCDEX July contract 24 114 138 387

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-42 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags. Exports of Jeera between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, an increase of up 86%. (Source: Factiva)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 5525 5472 5496 5566

Outlook
Jeera is expected to trade on a mixed note today. Overseas demand is expected support an upside in the prices. However, good supplies may pressurize prices at higher levels. Overall trend remain positive for the Jeera prices due to overseas demand as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 13th June 727 7492 8219 3924 Qty in Process 15 0 15 655

Turmeric
After recovering over the last two days, Turmeric futures corrected from higher levels on account of profit booking as well as good progress of the monsoon and settled 0.15% lower on Friday. Prices have declined sharply in the past few weeks due to lack of fresh overseas demand coupled with huge carryover stocks. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 2,700 bags and 3,000 bags on Friday. Exports of Turmeric between Apr 2012- Jan 2013 stood at 66,550 tn, a decline of 4%. (Source: Factiva) Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. Production in Nizamabad is expected around 12 lakh bags. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs) Outlook Turmeric may trade sideways with a positive bias today. Spot demand coupled with declining arrivals and fresh export enquiries may support prices at lower levels. However, huge carryover stocks may cap sharp upside. Good monsoon progress thereby prospects of good sowing may also add to the downside pressure.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 15, 2013

Support 13000-13080 5390-5450 Resistance 13220-13310 5560-5620
Source: Telequote

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar prices declined for the third straight session and settled 0.96% lower on account of good monsoon progress. Prices have gained last week on the back of good demand ahead of Ramadan coupled with concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western part of the country coupled with higher supplies were seen capping the upside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 42.09 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Government notified the cabinet committee on economic affairs (CCEA) decision to remove two key controls on sugar sector in the last month.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX June '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 3059 `/qtl 484.4 $/tonne 372.89 $/tonne 3.33 2.35 -0.94 Last 3072

as on June 14, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.04 0.42 -0.03 0.62 2.13 MoM 0.37 -0.07 1.34 -1.41 YoY 4.37 7.30 -14.52 -15.97

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 3071.55 3059 3079 3129 20-Jun-13 -12.55 0 19-Jul-13 7.45 20 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 57.45 70 50 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13. Exports are not viable as international prices have also declined significantly.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Total Stocks as on 13th June 748 3172 1022 4942 Qty in Process 950 1737 0 2687 Stocks as on 12th June 748 3172 1022 4942

as on June 13, 2013 Qty in Process 250 1100 0 1350

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar as well as Raw sugar on the ICE recovered sharply and settled 2.35% and 3.33% higher on Friday on account of short coverings after touching a three year low. Prices have declined due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects South-Central Brazil cane crush at 589.60 million tons for 2013/2014. Main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, in its latest bi monthly report, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production. The ISO has forecast sugar surplus of atleast 3.5 mn tonnes for 2013-14 season. Reports that China may curb imports as their stocks have more than doubled last season have also added to the downside.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note today. Demand from stockists coupled with output concerns this season may support prices. There are expectations of imposition of import duty. However, weak international prices coupled with good rains in the cane growing regions in Southern and Western part of the country may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 15, 2013 Resistance 3090-3110

3040-3055

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Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton prices traded on a positive note on Friday and settled 0.78% higher on Friday. Prices have witnessed significant gains in the past two weeks in the domestic markets on account of thin supplies and good demand for yarn. Firm international Cotton markets along with Weak domestic currency have also supported an upside in the cotton prices in the past couple of weeks. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. Cotton supplies since the beginning of the year in October th 2012 until 26 May, 2013 were down at 311.17 lakh bales, down from 320.82 lakh bales a year earlier.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1087 19440 91.29 96.4

as on June 14, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.56 1.35 0.78 2.32 -0.47 7.58 0.84 3.43 MoM YoY 6.26 11.95 2.32 20.90 5.03 16.90 3.38 16.35
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19440 19730 19810 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 14, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 290 0 370 80 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 11.86 lakh ha as against 10.4 lakh ha during the same period last year. Higher sowing is report from Punjab and Haryana while a decline has been reported in Rajasthan. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced while in the central India it will gain pace with the progress of monsoon.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the cotton advisory board which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 13th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 13, 2013

Stocks as on 12th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures corrected on Friday on account of profit taking towards the end of the week and settled 0.47% lower. Prices are trading around the highest levels in three months as USDA lowered its forecast for cotton inventory in the United States for the upcoming season due to a lower-than-expected crop as drought ravages Texas. Concern that a persistent drought will reduce output in Texas, the top U.S. producer has supported prices in the past few sessions. Further, lower planting is also supporting an upside in the cotton prices. Plantings were reported at 88% v/s 95% last week, 5 year avg of 92%. According to the USDA report, planting intentions for the 2013-14 season are said to be at a 4 year low. Also, there are expectations of good export demand from China. Reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve led to a decline in the prices.
Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX June contract

Outlook
Cotton is expected to trade on a positive note today on reports of reduction in the US cotton inventory. Thin supplies and good demand for yarn may support an upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX June Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 15, 2013 Support 1077-1083 19160-19300 Resistance 1092-1095 19570-19700
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

`
Saturday| June 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures continued to trade higher yesterday extending gains of the previous day and settled 3.75% and 3% higher respectively. Prices had declined on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets and comparatively thin demand. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing. Also, Stockiest who were holding stocks in anticipation of better prices have started liquidating stocks in the physical markets which added to the supply pressure.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX June 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX June 13 Fut `/qtl 6740 `/qtl 19478 `/qtl 19580 `/qtl -0.71 0.76 4.01 Last Prev day 6700 0.14

as on June 14, 2013 % change WoW -12.99 -10.25 -13.22 -13.44 MoM -29.18 -28.75 -30.81 -30.44 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

Southwest monsoon advanced in Central India 3 days before the normal schedule on July 12. A smooth progress of monsoon so far has raised expectations that monsoon will reach Rajasthan before its normal time. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon in remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, Gujarat state, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim; some more parts of MP and some more parts of Bihar, UP and south eastern Rajasthan during next 2-3 days. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 7240 7010 6640 5960 20-Jun-13 -230 0 19-Jul-13 -600 -370 0 -

as on June 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1280 -1050 -680 0 as on June 14, 2013 19-Jul-13 -446 -50 0 20-Aug-13 -2156 -1760 -1710 0 as on June 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th June 30 Qty in Process 30

NCDEX Guargum Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Jun-13 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 Closing 20706 20310 20260 18550 20-Jun-13 -396 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Stocks as on 13th June 30 Qty in Process 39

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Prices might witness short coverings technically. However, overall trend remain bearish in Guar complex as conditions so far are favorable for smooth advancement of monsoon in the major guar growing belts. Further, supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 15, 2013 Support 6390-6500 6390-6500 19500-19850 19500-19850 Resistance 6750-6840 6740-6830 20500-20850 20500-20850
Source: Telequote

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