Vehicle Technology Trends of the Future

Rudi Kunze Chief Technical Officer, Ford of Europe Istanbul Nov. 26th, 2004
Research & Advanced Engineering

Road Transport -- Big Challenges

Emissions Greenhouse gases Limited fossile fuels Safety Sustainable Mobility

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Road Transport Emission Trend

140 Emissions, % of 1995 level 120 100 80 60 40 20 CO NOx PM-diesel VOC Benzene SO2 CO2

Source: EC Auto-Oil-2 Program 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

CO2 remains a major challenge

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Vehicle CO2 Drivers and Opportunities

Legal Drivers Safety + 40-50kg Emissions
-higher fuel consumption -+ 7-10kg

Evolutionary Technologies Powertrain evolution

-Homogenious combustion -Downsizing, boosting etc.

Noise + 5-10kg Customer Preferences Additional comfort More features and equipment Consumer choice of bigger cars

Aerodynamics Rolling resistance Vehicle Energy management Weight reduction Intelligent navigation Alternative Technologies Hybrid technologies Alternative Powertrains Alternative fuels

Research & Advanced Engineering

Tailpipe Emissions vs. Well-to-Wheel CO2-Emissions

Euro-2
Crude oil based: Gasoline Crude oil based: Diesel Natural gas based

Diesel ICE

Gasoline ICE

Tailpipe Emissions

Renewable based

Euro-3

Long Term Target

Euro-4

ZEV

Diesel Gasoline ICE ICE Bridge to Available future Today Improved Improved Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Diesel CNG ICE ICE Hydrogen Further ICE Hydrogen ICE Evolution ICE Hydrogen Hydrogen e.g. HEVs Fuel Cell Fuel Cell

Well-to-Wheel CO2 (g/km)

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Future Powertrain Trends

Diesel Diesel Engine Engine Alternative Alternative Fuel Fuel Engines Engines Advanced Advanced Petrol Petrol Engines Engines Petrol Petrol Engine Engine

Advanced Advanced Diesel Diesel Engines Engines

HEV

H -ICE H2 2-ICE

Fuel Cell
H2
Research & Advanced Engineering

Ford Alternative Fuel Vehicles

LPG

LPG, CNG, ethanol Bi-valent Local suitability

CNG

Ethanol vehicles only sold by Ford

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Ethanol

Ford Hybrid Vehicles

Micro Hybrid Fiesta

Highest potential to reduce Micro Hybrid Application: CO2 Start Stop/Function Regenerative Braking

Mild Hybrid
Micro hybrid features + limited electric propulsion
Ford Escape HEV

Full Hybrid
Mild hybrid features + electric only range Limited zero emission operation
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Ford Hydrogen Powered Vehicles

Ford Focus C-MAX H2ICE

Hydrogen internal combustion engine as bridging technology for hydrogen powered fuel cells Hybridization possible

Ford Focus FCEV

Ford Focus H2ICE Hybrid

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Cost/ Benefit in NEDC Cycle

60
Ethanol H2 ICE

10

% CO2 Reduction

50 40 30 20

Fuel Cell

Diesel Mild Hybr.

Gasoline Full Hybrid

Diesel
Petrol DI Mild Hybr.

Note: Diesel and Petrol Hybrid have about same CO2 in real world customer cycle

10 Petrol DI 0 Petrol PFI

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Cost

Trends Transmission
Manual Transmission

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Automatic Transmission

3 3 Speed Speed

4 4 Speed Speed

5 5 Speed Speed

6 6 Speed Speed

CVT Auto Shift Manual

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Safety Model
Phase 1 Normal Driving Phase 2 Danger Phase Phase 3 Crash Unavoidable Phase 4 In Crash Phase 5 Post Crash

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ACTIVE

PASSIVE

TERTIARY

IMPACT
Active or Primary Safety = Accident Avoidance and/or Crash Severity Reduction Passive or Secondary Safety = Injury Avoidance and/or Injury Severity Reduction Tertiary Safety = Avoidance of Post-crash Risks and Ease of Rescue
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Future Safety Challenge

Reported Fatalities in Car Crash's in Europe
60000 50000 40000

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Goal set in European Commission White Paper on the European Transport Policy:

50% Reduction in Fatalitites 2000-2010

30000 20000 10000 0 1993

Need for Advanced Safety Technologies

1995 2000 2005 2010

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Active Safety: Adaptive Curve Light

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Night Vision

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Thermal Imaging

- Current technology - Expensive - Externally mounted

Laser based active night vision

- Higher quality - More robust

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Blind Spot Detection / Lane Change Aid

Monitoring device packaged in the exterior mirror observing the mirror's inherent blind spot Audible or visible aid to facilitate the lane change with activated indicator

Possible camera position

Research & Advanced Engineering

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Lane Departure Warning

Stereo camera that monitors lane markers, borders, etc. to give an audible or visual hazard warning when changing the lane without indication Gen II systems could interface with active steering systems

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Collision Mitigation by Braking

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FLR

Acoustic and optical warning Pre-charges the brake system to quicker build up the brake pressure In case of unavoidable accident autonomous braking is provided (reduce speed and accident severity)

CWM ECU w/ Camera

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Passive Safety
Advanced restraint systems Advanced airbags Advanced materials Pedestrian protection

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Pedestrian Subsystem Tests

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Traffic Management & Telematics

Traffic Management & Navigation:
Hybrid dynamic navigation Active safety systems based on map data Energy management strategy based on infrastructural data

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Telematics:
Post Crash Notification e-Call Car-to-car communication

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Vehicle Electronics Trend

Mechanics Hydraulics Electronics Pneumatics

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Car 2000 value appr. 10,000

Car 2010 value appr. 10,800

Increase of in-vehicle electronics from 22 % today to 35 % in 2010

Driving/ Braking Comfort (Active) Safety Driving/ Braking Comfort (Active) Safety

Entertainment

Entertainment Communication

Increasing Electronics: Major Challenge

Generator Sizing Trend
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1975
Max. 3.5 kW @ 14V (cost effective)

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Power [W]

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Model Year
Miller, J.M., 1996

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Loads per Powerclass

Mild Hybrids DC / DC Converter AC-Fan Electric Parking Brake Electro-hydraulic Brake-by-wire Active Chassis Column EPS, EHPS (Electric power steering)
A & B segments

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EVC: Electric Valve Hybrid Propulsion Hybrid Gasoline/Electric

Crankshaft Starter Alternator Driver Assistance Systems Electro-mechanical Brake-by-wire Electric Water pump Pinion EPS
B & C Segments

Shift-by-wire Braking ABS ASR ESP

Electric HVAC-Compressor Integrated Steering Braking Chassis Steer-by-wire Rack EPS (D & E Segments) Electric Heating
Kat, W-screen, Seat 4-5 kW City Cycle

Column EPS
C Segment Vehicles

1 kW

1.5 kW

2 kW

2000 Research & Advanced Engineering

2008 onwards Source: Frost and Sullivan, October 2002

The Electronic Controls Challenge

Current Approach
Driver

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Future Approach
Driver

Integrated Controls

Actuator

Actuator

Sensor

AUTOSAR
Actuator Actuator Sensor

Complexity increase dramatically Interface definition varies highly

Complexity increase minimally Interface definition can be standardised

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Conclusions
Ford is committed to the environment & sustainable mobility Ford is committed to continuous improvement of vehicle safety Increasing electronic controls will be by far biggest future challenge: robustness/ liability Customer acceptance to new technologies is essential Solutions have to compete in un-distorted European market
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