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Market Outlook

June 20, 2013

Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the red tracking SGX Nifty which is down
by 1.2%. The other Asian indices too are trading in the negative zone.
The US markets closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserves
announcement on quantitative easing. The Federal Reserve has left interest rates
unchanged and maintained the pace of its asset purchase program at $85 billion
a month. The statement from Federal Reserve at the end of two-day meeting said
that downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market have
diminished considerably. The Federal Reserve also acknowledged further
improvement in labor market conditions. The European markets closed mostly
lower on Wednesday as investors were cautious ahead of the announcements from
Federal Reserve which were made post the market hours.
Indian markets which traded lower for most part of the trading session on
Wednesday showed a strong pull-back in the late afternoon trade and finished flat.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,207/ 5,810 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,313 19,381 / 5,841 5,860 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,207 / 5,810 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,139 19,033 / 5,791 5,759 levels.
Indices

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

R2

SENSEX
NIFTY

19,033
5,759

19,139
5,791

19,207
5,810

19,313
5,841

19,381
5,860

News Analysis

Fed to continue its liquidity infusion through asset purchases


Bharti Airtel slashes data usage rates by 90% in Punjab, Haryana
Bharti Airtel to invest US$125mn in Gabon

Domestic Indices

Net Inflows (June 18, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

MTD

YTD

FII
MFs

1,789
414

2,352
362

(562)
53

(1,937)
(503)

79,900
(12,580)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

0.1

Nifty

0.1

5,822

MID CAP

0.5

33

6,236

SMALL CAP

22 19,246

0.5

29

5,839

BSE HC

(0.3)

(25)

8,738

BSE PSU

(0.3)

(22)

6,247

BANKEX

0.3

35 13,555

AUTO

(0.7)

(73) 10,802

METAL

1.3

102

8,091

OIL & GAS

0.6

48

8,599

(0.3)

(17)

6,056

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE IT
Global Indices

Dow Jones

(1.3)

NASDAQ

(1.1)

(39)

3,443

FTSE

(0.4)

(25)

6,349

Nikkei

(206) 15,112

1.8

238 13,245

Hang Sang

(1.1)

(239) 20,987

Straits Times

(0.5)

(16)

3,214

Shanghai Com

(0.6)

(13)

2,143

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

(1.5)

(0.6)

$40.9

WIT

(1.6)

(0.1)

$7.3

IBN

(2.1)

(0.9)

$40.0

HDB

(0.3)

(0.1)

$36.5

Indian ADR

Advances / Declines

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Chg (%)

BSE

NSE

Advances

1,250

724

Declines

1,137

629

134

92

Unchanged

Volumes (` cr)

FII Derivatives (June 19, 2013)


` cr

Purch

Sales

Net

Open Interest

Index Futures
Stock Futures

1,121
1,965

1,482
1,336

(360)
629

12,718
29,088

Gainers / Losers
Company

Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)

Company

Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)

Sobha Dev

392

4.9

MMTC

147

(5.0)

Future Retail

144

4.8

Indian Oil Corp

241

(3.1)

Idea Cellular
Mahindra & Mah
Fin
Indiabulls Real Est

148

4.5

Gitanjali Gems

531

(2.9)

279

4.4

Essar Oil

66

(2.9)

72

4.1

Apollo Tyres

61

(2.7)

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BSE

1,658

NSE

8,774

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Fed to continue
purchases

its

liquidity

infusion

through

asset

As expected, the Federal Reserves stance in its monetary policy remains


unchanged. The Fed would continue with its ultra accommodative monetary policy
stance keeping interest rates near zero until employment improves and price
stability is maintained at or below its 2% medium-term objective. The policy rate
has been maintained at a near-zero level of 0.25%. The FOMC has also decided
to continue its asset purchases of USD85bn per month (USD45bn in treasury
securities and USD40bn in mortgage-backed securities) to maintain downward
pressure on interest rates.
The latest projections peg unemployment rate in 2013 at 7.2-7.3% and estimate a
fall to 6.5-6.8% in 2014. Inflation is expected to remain below 2%. The fed has
reiterated its commitment to supporting growth through accommodative policy
until employment remains above 6.5% and price stability is maintained. Presently,
unemployment rate at 7.6% remains higher than the Feds comfort zone of 6.5%
and CPI inflation at 1.4% yoy in May 2013 and 1.1% yoy in April 2013. We expect
asset purchases to continue at least until December 2013 post which tapering may
ensue.

Bharti Airtel slashes data usage rates by 90% in Punjab,


Haryana
Bharti Airtel yesterday announced that the company has slashed data usage
charges by 90% for pre-paid subscribers in Punjab and Haryana, a day after
Vodafone lowered data charges by 80% for its pre-paid and post-paid customers
in three circles. Bharti Airtel said that the volume based charges on its recharge
vouchers for 2G data usage of three denominations have been reduced to 1 paisa
per 10 KB from 10 paisa per 10 KB. The recharge vouchers of Rs.22, Rs.25 and
Rs.125 carry a free download limit of 125 MB for five days, 150 MB for seven days
and 1 GB for 28 days. After the free download, the customers were presently
charged at 10 paisa per 10 KB which have been reduced to 1 paisa per 10 KB
with immediate effect. Also, the validity of the Rs.22 and Rs.25 recharge vouchers
has been increased to 30 days and that of Rs.125 recharge vouchers increased to
90 days. Vodafone had yesterday reduced the price from 10 paisa per 10 KB to 2
paisa per 10KB for Karnataka, UP West and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh
circles for both pre-paid and post-paid customers using the 2G network. We
expect other players in the industry to follow Bharti Airtels and Vodafones move
to make internet access affordable for customers who use mobile internet in a
limited way and inturn increase the share of data subscribers in the overall
subscriber base. We maintain our Buy rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of
Rs.328.

Bharti Airtel to invest US$125mn in Gabon


Bharti Airtel has said that the company will invest US$125mn more in Gabon to
develop the communications network in the central African country. As per the
company, Bharti will use the money to expand 3G and 4G telecommunications
networks and on some social programmes in the country. Gabon aims to have a

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

countrywide digital infrastructure by 2016, enabling the development of a wide


range of e-services, which will give rise to a major qualitative improvement in
social services and create the foundations for Gabon. With high hydrocarbon
reserves and foreign investment inflows, Gabon counts among the more
prosperous countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with a per capita income of nearly
US$12,000. Bharti Airtel currently has operations in 20 countries across Asia and
Africa. We maintain our Buy rating on Bharti Airtel with a target price of Rs.328.

Economic and Political News

Govt sets export target of $50 billion this fiscal: Rao


India to sell $ 7.15bn in debt quotas to foreign investors
India to consider allowing extra wheat exports
Fin Min turns down Pawar's proposal to hike sugar import duty
FDI dips by 6% in Jan-March 2013
Govt extends import ban on milk items from China by one year

Corporate News

Tata Motors plans Nano upgrades, new SUVs with Land Rover
Tata Coffee commissions new instant coffee plant at Theni
Glenmark gets USFDA approval for sclerosis treatment drug
Dr Reddy's sued for 'infringement' of thyroid injection patent
EU fines Ranbaxy, 8 others Euro 146mn
Tata Steel signs sale pact with Safran Group
CIL invites bids from cos to advise on modernisation of mines
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

June 20, 2013

June 25, 2013

1:00PM

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Value

Jun A

49.40

--

1:00PM

Germany PMI Services

Value

Jun A

49.70

--

7:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Value

Jun A

(21.90)

--

7:30PM

US

Existing home sales

Million

May

4.97

5.00

7:30PM

US

Consumer Confidence

S.A./ 1985=100

Jun

76.20

--

7:30PM

US

New home sales

Thousands

May

454.00

--

June 26, 2013

6:00PM

US

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

% Change

1Q T

2.40

--

June 27, 2013

1:25PM

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

Thousands

Jun

21.00

--

2:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

% Change

1Q F

0.60

--

6:30AM

China

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Jun

50.80

--

2:00PM

UK

PMI Manufacturing

Value

Jun

51.30

--

4:30PM

UK

BOE Announces rates

% Ratio

Jul 4

0.50

0.50

5:15PM

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Jul 4

0.50

--

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

Thousands

Jun

175.00

--

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

Jun

7.60

--

July 9, 2013

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Jun

2.10

--

July 10, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

% Change

Jun

1.00

--

July 15, 2013

7:30AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Jun

9.20

--

7:30AM

China

Real GDP (YoY)

% Change

2Q

7.70

--

11:30AM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

2Q P

(1.40)

--

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

2Q A

(0.20)

--

11:00AM

India

% Change

2Q

4.80

--

July 1, 2013
July 4, 2013
July 5, 2013

August 14, 2013


August 30, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Qtrly GDP YoY%

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
10.0

11.4

6.0

4.0
2.0

Jun-12

May-12

4QFY13

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

(4.0)

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

58.0

7.5

8.0

8.1

7.3

(1.0) (0.6)

(0.7)

(2.0)

Apr-13

(0.1)

(2.0)

Source: CSO, Angel Research

7.3

7.2

7.3

7.3

Services PMI

56.0
5.7

5.0

4.9

4.7

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

54.0
52.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

(%)

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exports yoy growth

15.0

48.0

Apr-12

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

50.0

Mar-12

9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0

Mar-13

4.7 4.8

2.3

0.5

Jan-13

5.1 5.4 5.2

3.4

2.5

2.0

Dec-12

6.0

2.5

Nov-12

6.5

Feb-13

7.5

Oct-12

7.7

Sep-12

9.2

Aug-12

8.6

8.4

8.0

9.9

Jul-12

9.5

9.3

2QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

8.00
7.00
6.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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4.00

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

3.00
Aug-12

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

5.00

Jul-12

(15.0)

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

0.0

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

139

2,703

1,657

1,906

14.1

14.1

7.7

8.9

18.1

15.6

3.8

3.2

22.2

21.9

1.6

1.3

United Phosphorus

Buy

146

232

6,471

10,298

11,310

16.5

16.5

20.5

23.2

7.1

6.3

1.2

1.0

18.0

17.4

0.6

0.5

Amara Raja Batteries

Accumulate

255

285

4,352

3,418

3,892

14.5

14.5

18.5

20.4

13.8

12.5

3.3

2.7

26.6

23.8

1.3

1.1

Apollo Tyres

Neutral

61

3,070

13,852

15,487

11.4

11.5

12.8

14.9

4.7

4.1

0.8

0.7

17.5

17.3

0.4

0.3

Ashok Leyland

Buy

22

27

5,893

14,038

16,442

7.6

8.7

1.1

2.2

21.2

9.9

1.8

1.6

6.2

12.5

0.5

0.4

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

242

366

834

965

9.3

10.6

17.3

27.1

14.0

9.0

1.3

1.2

9.5

14.0

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,835

2,056

53,108

22,684

25,908

18.0

18.5

117.3

137.1

15.7

13.4

5.6

4.5

39.9

37.2

1.9

1.6

Bharat Forge

Neutral

219

5,091

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

15.0

12.6

2.0

1.8

13.6

14.7

0.9

0.8

Bosch India*

Neutral

9,000

28,258

9,821

11,394

17.0

17.3

373.5

438.7

24.1

20.5

4.3

3.7

18.0

17.9

2.6

2.2

CEAT

Buy

109

170

374

5,325

5,974

8.4

8.3

40.8

48.5

2.7

2.3

0.4

0.4

17.3

17.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Buy

123

150

10,489

7,053

8,061

14.2

14.5

7.8

9.1

15.8

13.5

2.7

2.3

18.1

18.2

1.2

1.0

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,441

2,395

1,525

1,742

14.5

15.7

88.4

109.5

16.3

13.2

2.4

2.0

15.5

16.5

1.4

1.2

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,620

1,819

32,341

25,274

27,658

14.1

13.7

110.2

139.9

14.7

11.6

5.4

4.2

39.8

40.7

1.1

0.9

JK Tyre

Buy

111

154

457

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

3.0

2.5

0.5

0.4

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate

979

1,090

60,084

45,254

51,197

11.4

11.7

61.2

70.2

16.0

13.9

3.3

2.8

22.7

21.9

1.1

0.9

1,544

1,847

46,647

48,455

55,723

11.2

10.9

107.8

123.2

14.3

12.5

2.2

1.9

16.2

16.0

0.8

0.7

206

222

12,096

28,442

31,493

7.5

7.8

12.5

14.8

16.5

13.9

4.1

3.2

27.5

25.8

0.6

0.5

Buy

24

30

142

1,479

1,685

10.0

9.9

5.5

7.5

4.3

3.2

0.5

0.4

11.1

13.7

0.4

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

292

347

78,600 215,016 237,404

13.3

13.6

36.2

41.5

8.1

7.0

1.8

1.5

24.6

23.2

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Buy

34

41

1,613

7,715

8,584

6.0

6.1

5.0

5.8

6.8

5.9

1.2

1.0

18.1

18.5

0.1

0.1

ABB*

Sell

615

461

13,038

8,073

9,052

5.5

6.9

11.5

16.9

53.4

36.3

4.9

4.7

9.3

13.1

1.6

1.4

BGR Energy

Neutral

140

1,007

4,114

4,886

11.4

10.7

24.9

28.0

5.6

5.0

0.8

0.7

25.2

22.6

0.6

0.5

BHEL

Neutral

180

44,130

44,054

39,326

16.8

15.1

20.6

16.1

8.8

11.2

1.9

1.7

23.5

16.1

0.9

0.9

Blue Star

Buy

163

230

1,466

2,896

3,087

5.6

6.2

9.3

11.7

17.5

13.9

2.9

2.5

17.6

19.2

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

85

117

5,453

13,446

15,272

6.7

7.6

6.6

8.9

12.8

9.6

1.4

1.3

11.4

14.0

0.5

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Neutral

23

193

3,360

3,597

9.7

9.8

7.3

10.2

3.2

2.3

0.7

0.6

8.8

11.4

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

35

63

892

7,709

8,399

6.7

7.2

6.1

8.5

5.7

4.1

0.7

0.6

20.2

23.0

0.3

0.3

Thermax

Neutral

604

7,192

5,780

6,430

9.5

9.6

29.8

33.0

20.2

18.3

3.4

3.0

17.9

17.4

1.1

0.9

1,217

1,361

22,848

11,979

13,254

19.7

21.3

77.1

91.4

15.8

13.3

2.8

2.5

18.7

20.0

1.6

1.4

Maruti

Buy

Motherson Sumi

Accumulate

Subros

Capital Goods

Cement
ACC

Accumulate

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Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

184

28,351

10,232

11,762

23.5

24.5

10.3

12.2

17.9

15.1

3.0

2.7

17.2

18.6

2.3

1.9

India Cements

Neutral

63

1,929

4,929

5,434

17.4

17.1

8.9

10.9

7.1

5.8

0.5

0.5

7.7

9.1

0.7

0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

111

143

1,309

2,247

2,742

21.0

23.1

17.8

21.8

6.2

5.1

0.9

0.8

15.5

16.4

0.5

0.9

Madras Cements

Neutral

233

5,553

4,234

4,788

23.9

24.0

18.5

22.8

12.6

10.3

2.0

1.7

17.2

18.2

1.7

1.4

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,739

16,508

6,540

7,452

27.4

26.6

319.7

369.9

14.8

12.8

3.7

2.9

27.5

25.4

1.9

1.4

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,842

50,495

21,947

25,049

23.8

23.8

106.1

119.8

17.4

15.4

2.9

2.5

17.7

17.3

2.4

2.0

185

255

971

1,928

2,234

21.0

21.5

18.0

22.2

10.3

8.3

0.9

0.8

10.2

10.1

1.9

1.9

10

184

2,281

2,492

5.9

6.9

0.7

2.0

14.6

5.0

0.3

0.3

2.3

6.5

0.4

0.3

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

118

157

3,909

3,997

4,312

45.5

46.4

15.7

16.6

7.5

7.1

1.1

1.0

15.2

14.5

3.4

3.6

ITNL

Buy

170

230

3,297

7,444

8,041

27.4

28.9

29.8

32.1

5.7

5.3

0.8

0.7

14.9

14.2

2.5

2.6

IVRCL Infra

Buy

17

29

506

5,673

5,892

8.1

8.4

1.4

1.8

11.4

9.0

0.2

0.2

2.0

2.6

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

63

90

14,058

14,850

15,631

24.9

25.1

2.5

2.9

25.0

22.2

1.0

1.0

4.2

4.7

2.8

2.7

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

1,437

1,761

88,577

68,946

78,040

10.5

10.5

77.9

88.3

18.5

16.3

2.7

2.4

15.5

15.6

1.4

1.3

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

28

42

727

6,167

6,945

8.0

8.2

2.7

3.6

10.6

7.8

0.3

0.3

2.7

3.6

0.5

0.4

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

38

1,259

12,954

14,740

9.9

9.9

0.5

0.9

74.7

40.7

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.1

0.5

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

102

139

1,543

2,462

2,731

10.6

10.6

5.9

6.7

17.4

15.3

1.7

1.5

10.2

10.5

0.9

0.8

Simplex Infra

Buy

90

131

444

6,308

7,033

9.5

9.6

11.9

18.7

7.6

4.8

0.3

0.3

4.5

6.7

0.5

0.5

Unity Infra

Buy

27

41

203

2,146

2,339

13.7

13.8

11.0

11.5

2.5

2.4

0.2

0.2

9.3

9.0

0.6

0.6

Allahabad Bank

Buy

110

139

5,493

6,876

7,545

2.6

2.5

28.2

30.9

3.9

3.6

0.6

0.5

12.8

12.7

Andhra Bank

Neutral

86

4,796

5,254

5,900

2.8

2.8

21.2

22.9

4.1

3.8

0.6

0.5

13.3

13.0

Axis Bank

Buy

1,285

1,853

60,243

19,055

22,710

3.3

3.2

130.7

152.3

9.8

8.4

1.6

1.4

17.2

17.6

Bank of Baroda

Buy

615

851

25,905

16,365

18,781

2.2

2.3

121.3

142.5

5.1

4.3

0.7

0.7

15.1

15.7

Bank of India

Buy

280

339

16,700

14,482

16,383

2.3

2.3

58.1

68.1

4.8

4.1

0.7

0.6

14.4

15.0

Bank of Maharashtra

Buy

54

64

3,555

4,392

4,743

3.1

3.0

12.6

13.7

4.3

3.9

0.7

0.6

16.8

16.0

Canara Bank

Buy

381

481

16,858

11,928

13,467

2.1

2.2

74.8

86.0

5.1

4.4

0.7

0.6

13.7

14.2

Central Bank

Neutral

67

6,962

8,249

9,211

2.4

2.5

14.9

18.2

4.5

3.7

0.7

0.6

12.5

13.8

Corporation Bank

Buy

377

476

5,767

5,558

6,121

2.0

2.0

98.4

107.7

3.8

3.5

0.6

0.5

14.9

14.5

Dena Bank

Accumulate

86

97

3,025

3,187

3,582

2.3

2.4

23.8

25.5

3.6

3.4

0.6

0.5

15.9

15.1

Federal Bank

Neutral

442

7,559

2,873

3,413

3.0

3.1

52.7

62.0

8.4

7.1

1.1

1.0

13.4

14.2

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Accumulate

843

898

130,603

8,573

10,142

3.6

3.6

37.0

43.6

22.8

19.3

4.7

4.2

30.0

30.3

HDFC Bank

Accumulate

665

732

158,823

28,361

34,747

4.6

4.6

33.9

41.0

19.6

16.2

3.8

3.2

20.7

21.2

ICICI Bank

Buy

1,086

1,503

125,382

25,705

30,330

3.1

3.2

83.9

96.3

13.0

11.3

1.7

1.6

15.2

15.7

IDBI Bank

Buy

77

89

10,236

9,477

10,678

2.0

2.1

19.6

22.6

3.9

3.4

0.5

0.4

12.8

13.4

Indian Bank

Buy

129

164

5,559

6,185

6,978

3.0

3.0

37.0

42.2

3.5

3.1

0.5

0.5

14.8

15.1

IOB

Accumulate

59

62

5,434

8,142

8,956

2.5

2.5

16.5

20.7

3.6

2.9

0.4

0.4

11.8

13.4

J & K Bank

Accumulate

1,215

1,315

5,889

3,074

3,140

3.5

3.2

224.7

201.5

5.4

6.0

1.0

0.9

20.6

16.1

LIC Housing Finance

Accumulate

271

298

13,689

2,113

2,525

2.3

2.3

25.4

29.2

10.7

9.3

1.9

1.6

18.4

18.3

Oriental Bank

Accumulate

235

261

6,849

6,835

7,588

2.6

2.6

56.5

63.8

4.2

3.7

0.6

0.5

13.1

13.4

Punjab Natl.Bank

Buy

726

994

25,664

20,876

23,929

3.3

3.4

151.7

177.0

4.8

4.1

0.8

0.7

16.1

16.5

South Ind.Bank

Accumulate

24

25

3,217

1,839

2,091

2.9

2.8

4.2

4.5

5.7

5.3

1.0

0.9

18.2

17.0

St Bk of India

Buy

2,046

2,637

139,933

67,243

76,612

3.1

3.0

242.4

284.8

8.4

7.2

1.3

1.1

16.3

16.8

Syndicate Bank

Buy

121

142

7,299

7,238

8,249

2.7

2.6

27.1

30.4

4.5

4.0

0.7

0.6

16.1

15.9

UCO Bank

Neutral

77

5,795

6,250

6,738

2.6

2.5

12.1

14.7

6.4

5.3

1.0

0.8

11.8

13.0

Union Bank

Buy

217

260

12,968

11,229

12,794

2.6

2.6

40.7

48.2

5.3

4.5

0.8

0.7

14.6

15.4

United Bank

Buy

52

65

1,937

3,443

3,998

2.4

2.6

15.1

20.4

3.4

2.5

0.5

0.4

12.1

14.8

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

52

2,574

2,730

3,059

1.9

2.0

10.2

11.3

5.1

4.6

0.6

0.6

11.8

12.0

Yes Bank

Accumulate

478

520

17,180

4,390

5,411

2.8

2.8

41.6

47.9

11.5

10.0

2.4

2.0

23.2

22.1

FMCG
Asian Paints

Neutral

4,605

44,167

12,332

14,524

16.5

16.3

141.6

162.7

32.5

28.3

10.3

8.2

35.4

32.2

3.5

2.9

Britannia

Neutral

668

7,990

6,417

7,502

6.1

6.3

23.2

27.9

28.9

23.9

9.9

7.8

38.3

36.4

1.2

1.0

Colgate

Neutral

1,341

18,239

3,588

4,130

20.5

20.9

44.2

51.8

30.4

25.9

29.6

21.6

108.6

96.2

4.9

4.2

Dabur India

Neutral

156

27,233

7,183

8,340

16.8

16.8

5.4

6.3

29.1

24.8

11.3

8.8

41.5

40.1

3.7

3.2

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

5,706

23,999

3,617

4,259

16.1

16.4

122.2

148.7

46.7

38.4

14.5

11.7

34.1

33.7

6.2

5.2

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

794

27,027

7,801

9,017

16.2

15.9

25.1

29.7

31.6

26.8

6.8

5.7

24.9

24.2

3.6

3.1

HUL

Neutral

595

128,613

29,167

33,164

13.6

13.7

17.1

18.4

34.8

32.3

33.5

24.2

113.4

87.0

4.3

3.7

ITC

Neutral

330

260,840

34,294

39,991

36.8

37.0

11.3

13.3

29.3

24.7

9.6

7.8

36.1

34.9

7.3

6.2

Marico

Neutral

220

14,186

5,273

6,044

14.8

14.9

7.3

8.7

30.3

25.4

5.9

4.9

21.4

21.0

2.7

2.3

Nestle*

Neutral

5,090

49,078

9,447

10,968

22.1

22.3

127.5

154.1

39.9

33.0

19.9

14.4

57.7

50.7

5.2

4.4

Tata Global

Neutral

144

8,874

8,069

8,957

9.8

9.7

7.8

8.6

18.3

16.7

2.2

2.1

9.5

9.7

1.1

0.9

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

779

863

54,288

28,633

32,216

21.5

20.7

57.3

61.7

13.6

12.6

3.2

2.7

24.0

21.5

1.7

1.5

83

96

2,471

2,091

2,289

19.0

18.8

10.6

11.3

7.8

7.3

1.7

1.5

22.8

21.7

1.0

0.9

IT
HCL Tech^

Accumulate

Hexaware*

Buy

Infosys

Neutral

2,438

139,999

43,338

47,244

27.5

27.7

169.4

182.6

14.4

13.4

3.0

2.6

20.8

19.3

2.6

2.2

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

174

185

1,942

1,956

2,174

17.9

17.7

20.4

21.9

8.5

8.0

1.3

1.1

14.7

13.7

0.6

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Accumulate

118

135

2,271

2,513

2,819

16.1

15.5

12.6

14.0

9.4

8.4

1.6

1.4

17.9

16.6

0.9

0.7

Mahindra Satyam

Accumulate

116

126

13,712

8,278

9,062

20.3

20.1

10.5

11.4

11.1

10.2

2.6

2.0

23.1

20.0

1.2

1.0

Mindtree

Accumulate

815

920

3,386

2,599

2,871

19.4

19.2

85.2

92.3

9.6

8.8

2.0

1.6

21.4

18.9

1.0

0.8

Mphasis&

Neutral

398

8,355

6,096

6,646

17.6

17.4

38.1

41.6

10.4

9.6

1.5

1.3

14.2

13.7

0.9

0.7

NIIT

Buy

22

30

365

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

5.1

4.1

0.5

0.5

10.3

12.0

0.1

Persistent

Accumulate

518

593

2,073

1,445

1,617

25.2

25.0

55.3

59.3

9.4

8.7

1.7

1.4

18.2

16.5

1.0

0.8

TCS

Accumulate

1,429

1,585

279,706

71,833

81,893

28.4

28.0

78.5

88.0

18.2

16.2

5.5

4.5

30.2

27.9

3.7

3.2

Tech Mahindra

Buy

1,013

1,170

13,011

7,779

8,398

19.7

19.3

107.4

117.8

9.4

8.6

2.0

1.6

21.2

19.0

1.7

1.5

Wipro

Accumulate

343

385

84,514

40,173

43,697

20.4

20.6

26.2

28.5

13.1

12.0

2.6

2.2

19.7

18.4

1.6

1.3

D B Corp

Buy

235

290

4,308

1,750

1,925

25.1

26.6

14.2

16.8

16.5

14.0

3.6

3.0

23.4

23.4

2.4

2.1

HT Media

Buy

96

117

2,244

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.3

9.1

11.6

10.5

1.3

1.1

11.5

11.4

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

88

119

2,936

1,664

1,825

20.9

23.0

6.4

7.8

13.8

11.4

2.8

2.5

21.0

23.1

1.9

1.7

PVR

Neutral

335

1,326

1,359

1,540

17.3

17.4

17.2

21.6

19.4

15.5

1.9

1.8

10.3

12.0

1.4

1.2

Sun TV Network

Neutral

360

14,169

2,287

2,551

69.7

70.5

20.0

23.3

18.0

15.4

4.5

3.9

26.4

27.3

5.8

5.1

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

466

10,559

13,794

17,088

30.9

33.5

49.3

66.6

9.5

7.0

1.0

0.9

11.3

13.5

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Buy

300

345

189,301

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

10.5

9.7

2.9

2.5

37.6

36.2

1.8

1.6

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

14

24

456

1,976

2,017

11.8

12.7

1.3

2.6

11.1

5.4

0.1

0.1

2.6

5.2

0.5

0.1

GMDC

Buy

128

193

4,064

1,920

2,239

53.2

52.9

21.6

25.0

5.9

5.1

1.4

1.1

25.1

23.8

1.6

1.2

Hind. Zinc

Buy

112

145

47,281

12,358

13,659

51.4

51.6

16.0

17.6

7.0

6.4

1.3

1.1

19.4

18.4

1.6

1.0

Hindalco

Neutral

104

19,950

89,352

93,672

8.8

9.2

13.4

15.0

7.8

7.0

0.6

0.5

7.3

7.6

0.6

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

712

15,895

39,973

40,926

17.2

17.0

71.9

82.8

9.9

8.6

0.9

0.8

9.0

9.6

0.8

0.7

MOIL

Buy

204

248

3,426

1,010

1,046

46.5

47.6

26.8

28.8

7.6

7.1

1.1

1.0

15.4

14.7

1.0

0.7

Monnet Ispat

Buy

123

193

786

2,326

2,709

21.4

23.1

33.3

43.1

3.7

2.9

0.3

0.3

8.3

9.9

1.4

1.0

Nalco

Neutral

30

7,667

7,656

7,988

13.1

13.5

2.6

2.6

11.7

11.4

0.6

0.6

5.5

5.5

0.4

0.5

NMDC

Buy

107

156

42,244

10,461

11,892

71.6

72.6

16.3

17.6

6.6

6.1

1.4

1.2

22.1

21.4

2.2

2.0

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Metals & Mining


SAIL

Reduce

Sesa Goa

Accumulate

57

53

23,356

44,060

54,786

9.4

11.5

5.2

7.2

10.8

7.9

0.6

0.6

5.2

6.8

0.8

0.7

146

166

12,676

3,742

4,426

32.9

32.8

30.0

29.8

4.9

4.9

0.7

0.6

14.3

12.5

4.2

3.4

Sterlite Inds
Tata Steel

Buy

85

100

28,650

44,462

45,568

23.2

24.7

18.1

20.2

4.7

4.2

0.5

0.5

11.3

11.4

0.6

0.5

Buy

291

378

28,219 140,917 151,537

9.7

10.8

30.9

47.6

9.4

6.1

0.9

0.8

9.6

13.4

0.6

0.5

Sarda

Buy

104

153

371

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

3.3

2.8

0.4

0.3

11.8

12.4

0.6

0.5

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

31

45

423

2,615

2,776

12.1

12.0

9.8

10.4

3.2

3.0

0.2

0.2

6.5

6.5

0.4

0.4

Buy

82

102

269

2,344

2,509

14.9

15.4

38.7

47.0

2.1

1.8

0.2

0.2

12.3

12.9

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Buy

294

345

56,172

16,482

16,228

69.4

53.3

53.3

49.6

5.5

5.9

0.9

0.8

16.5

13.6

2.1

1.7

GAIL

Neutral

297

37,680

52,102

52,876

15.7

16.1

34.1

35.7

8.7

8.3

1.4

1.2

16.4

15.3

0.3

0.2

ONGC

Buy

309

372

264,108 170,063 193,024

36.3

36.9

34.7

38.3

8.9

8.1

1.5

1.4

18.3

17.9

1.3

1.0

Reliance Industries

Neutral

831

268,398 380,031 407,721

9.9

69.3

69.3

78.0

12.0

10.7

1.2

1.1

11.5

11.7

0.7

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

211

2,706

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

8.9

8.2

2.5

2.2

29.6

28.2

0.6

0.6

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

281

3,940

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.7

30.4

10.6

9.3

2.2

1.9

22.7

21.8

1.1

0.9

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

129

167

9,709

40,356

40,872

5.8

6.4

15.0

16.7

8.6

7.7

1.8

1.5

23.0

21.5

0.3

0.3

Neutral

54

3,056

1,171

1,287

91.9

91.9

10.1

11.3

5.4

4.8

0.9

0.8

17.3

16.8

Alembic Pharma

Neutral

145

2,740

1,736

2,008

17.1

18.9

10.7

13.9

13.6

10.5

4.3

3.2

35.0

34.7

1.6

1.4

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

181

271

5,280

6,641

7,637

15.9

15.9

17.3

20.6

10.5

8.8

1.7

1.4

19.5

18.9

1.3

1.1

Aventis*

Neutral

2,538

5,844

1,682

1,917

16.6

16.6

92.4

99.1

27.5

25.6

3.9

3.9

15.7

14.8

3.1

2.5

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

794

929

16,247

7,280

8,640

15.5

15.7

38.3

46.5

20.7

17.1

4.5

3.7

23.5

23.5

2.5

2.1

Cipla

Buy

380

477

30,499

9,274

10,796

23.1

23.1

21.0

23.8

18.1

16.0

2.9

2.5

17.2

16.8

3.0

2.5

Dr Reddy's

Buy

2,100

2,535

35,675

13,377

15,350

20.4

20.1

112.3

126.8

18.7

16.6

4.0

3.3

23.5

21.8

2.8

2.4

Dishman Pharma

Buy

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

Indoco Remedies

Buy

Ipca labs

64

168

516

1,394

1,534

22.5

22.4

15.0

16.8

4.3

3.8

0.5

0.4

11.0

11.2

1.0

0.8

2,472

20,936

2,854

3,145

28.6

28.6

76.6

83.3

32.3

29.7

9.7

8.8

31.1

31.0

6.5

5.8

62

78

573

760

922

15.3

15.3

6.1

7.8

10.2

8.0

1.3

1.1

12.9

14.7

1.0

0.8

Neutral

695

8,767

3,243

3,826

20.5

21.5

36.0

44.4

19.3

15.7

4.5

3.6

26.0

25.4

2.8

2.4

Lupin

Accumulate

795

877

35,593

11,641

13,933

21.3

21.3

34.8

41.8

22.8

19.0

5.4

4.2

26.2

24.8

3.1

2.5

Ranbaxy*

Neutral

354

14,984

11,400

12,060

10.5

12.5

17.5

22.5

20.2

15.7

3.3

2.8

17.0

19.1

1.3

1.1

Sun Pharma

Neutral

961

99,381

13,509

15,846

41.0

41.0

33.0

39.8

29.1

24.2

5.9

4.9

22.0

22.0

6.8

5.6

70

78

1,057

1,444

1,482

33.4

33.0

13.7

14.8

5.1

4.7

0.6

0.5

12.3

12.0

0.8

0.5

Power
GIPCL

Accumulate

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Accumulate

145

163

119,518

76,734

86,680

24.5

24.3

13.4

14.5

10.8

10.0

1.3

1.2

12.8

12.7

2.3

2.1

DLF

Buy

189

236

33,646

8,293

9,622

36.5

36.1

5.7

6.7

33.1

28.0

1.2

1.1

3.7

4.1

6.2

5.1

MLIFE

Buy

386

476

1,577

888

1,002

30.6

30.6

38.8

43.4

9.9

8.9

1.1

1.0

11.2

11.4

2.4

2.1

Bharti Airtel

Accumulate

300

338

113,812

86,592

95,860

31.4

31.8

10.9

14.5

27.5

20.6

2.1

1.9

7.7

9.3

2.0

1.6

Idea Cellular

Neutral

148

49,033

25,122

27,663

27.0

27.2

4.0

4.8

37.3

31.1

3.1

2.8

8.3

9.1

2.4

2.1

Rcom

Neutral

127

26,141

22,801

24,628

31.0

31.3

3.6

5.3

35.6

24.1

0.8

0.7

2.2

3.1

2.7

2.4

1,447

1,659

3,075

1,863

2,081

11.8

12.4

71.2

83.0

20.3

17.5

4.1

3.5

21.6

21.5

1.4

1.1

Power
NTPC
Real Estate

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Accumulate

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

168

237

1,673

3,885

4,472

5.4

7.2

11.0

19.7

15.3

8.5

2.1

1.7

13.5

20.3

0.4

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Accumulate

519

562

657

630

795

14.4

13.6

42.8

51.1

12.1

10.2

2.9

2.3

26.6

25.2

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

292

459

75

248

284

6.5

7.3

27.2

38.2

10.8

7.6

1.7

1.4

15.7

18.5

0.5

0.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

52

68

796

2,563

2,899

9.8

9.8

10.1

11.3

5.2

4.6

0.7

0.6

14.3

13.8

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

295

437

384

2,304

2,649

3.1

3.6

28.0

43.7

10.5

6.8

0.3

0.3

3.1

4.7

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Buy

296

345

684

1,458

1,542

8.3

9.0

32.3

37.0

9.2

8.0

1.7

1.4

19.5

19.3

0.3

0.2

Hitachi

Buy

133

177

363

1,053

1,169

6.3

7.1

13.8

17.7

9.7

7.5

1.4

1.2

15.0

16.7

0.4

0.3

2,487

2,199

1,842

2,131

7.7

7.8

112.4

132.4

22.1

18.8

2.8

2.4

13.3

13.8

1.1

0.9

Honeywell Automation* Neutral


IFB Agro

Buy

154

198

139

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

5.3

3.9

0.8

0.6

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

160

234

184

1,430

1,573

11.1

11.0

19.1

26.9

8.4

6.0

0.4

0.4

4.9

6.3

0.5

0.5

Jyothy Laboratories

Neutral

192

3,091

1,220

1,476

13.3

13.6

5.5

9.0

34.8

21.2

4.0

3.6

12.1

17.7

2.9

2.3

MRF

Neutral

14,107

5,983

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0

7.9

7.8

1.7

1.4

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Accumulate

4,153

4,611

4,632

1,057

1,282

19.4

19.6

124.8

153.7

33.3

27.0

16.5

12.2

56.3

51.8

4.5

3.7

Relaxo Footwears

Accumulate

732

791

878

1,146

1,333

10.9

11.4

45.9

60.9

16.0

12.0

3.3

2.7

23.0

24.6

0.9

0.8

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

244

343

229

1,158

1,322

11.9

11.9

72.9

85.7

3.4

2.9

0.6

0.5

19.9

19.6

0.4

0.4

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

428

617

752

1,068

1,223

9.6

9.6

38.1

44.1

11.2

9.7

1.5

1.3

14.5

14.7

0.7

0.6

TAJ GVK

Buy

60

108

377

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

7.6

6.6

1.0

0.9

13.9

14.4

1.6

1.3

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

277

371

427

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

4.3

4.0

0.6

0.5

14.5

13.8

0.1

TTK Healthcare

Buy

542

686

421

435

516

6.2

7.1

24.3

33.3

22.3

16.3

3.7

3.2

17.6

20.8

0.8

0.7

Tree House

Accumulate

272

297

979

153

194

53.0

52.8

12.4

15.6

22.0

17.4

2.6

2.3

11.8

13.1

6.6

5.0

TVS Srichakra

Buy

194

252

148

1,591

1,739

6.1

6.6

24.5

41.9

7.9

4.6

0.9

0.8

10.9

17.2

0.3

0.3

United Spirits

Neutral

2,478

36,013

12,294

14,162

12.0

12.0

42.1

67.7

58.9

36.6

4.2

3.7

9.1

10.7

3.3

2.8

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

365

439

741

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

10.2

10.0

1.8

1.6

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Others
Vesuvius India*

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 19, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
June 20, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

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