A STUDY ON

Demand forecasting of automatic cool watches

(A CASE STUDY IN TEKKLAI, SRIKAKULAM DISTRICT (A.P))
A Mini Project Report submitted to JNTU University, KAKINADA in Partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Award of the Degree of

MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION In the subject

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
By NARAYANARAO.S (Reg. No. 11pm1e0014)

Under the Guidance of Sri B. BALARAM M.Com. M.B.A., M.Phil., (Ph.D) Senior Assistant Professor

Department of Management Studies

ASCAM SCHOOL OF COMPUTER SCIENCE &MANAGEMENT
(Affiliated To JNTU Kakinada, Approved By AICTE and Accredited By NBA) TEKKALI, SRIKAKULAM. 2011-2013

Contents
Introduction Need for the study Objectives Research methodology Research Design Data collection method Sampling Field work Hypothesis Analysis & interpretation Limitations Findings of the study Suggestions & recommendations Scope for future study Conclusion Annexure Questionnaire Bibliography

INTRODUCTION
Automatic cool watches timepieces are designed to never need a battery, due to its winding mechanism, which works because from the motion of the human wrist, the automatic view is the perfect choice for those who wear theirs every day. However, if a home winding watch just isnt worn for a few days, its going to wind down.

How it Works

A mechanical watch is also referred to as a self winding view or perpetual view, because of the way it works. To be able to understand the mechanisms of such watches, you have to have a look at how it works in conjunction with the body.

The movement from the wrist causes the actual rotor, a metal pounds attached to a turning mechanism, to pivot freely on its staff in the centre from the movement. Even the smallest action of the arm will cause the rotor to rotate forward and backward, in a circular motion. As the rotor movements, it winds the actual expensive watches mainspring, which in turn powers the timepiece.

DEMAND FORECASTING
Demand forecasting is the backbone of any business. It means the estimation or prediction of future demand for the goods or services.Accurate demand forecast is essential for firm to produce required quantities at the right time & arrange well in advance for the various factors of production. Demand forecasting is also helpful in better planning and allocation of natural resources. It is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market. The concept of meeting supply with demand is straight forward. just strike the right balance between what your customers want & the inventory investment required to meet the demand. Underestimating demand leads to backorders cancellation & unsatisfied customers who turn to your customers. There are several methods to assess & forecast demand. None yields demand numbers that are 100% guaranteed. One of the most accurate method used today is combination of market & mind share research. Demand forecasting is very popular in industrially advanced countries where demand conditions are always more uncertain than supply condition.

Challenges in Demand Forecasting

Scale of forecast Erratic demands Introducing new features Changing price

How do we resolve them? Techniques

Judgmental Customer survey Delphi/Expert Opinion Market experiments Time series analysis Quantitative Extrapolation Data mining Least Square Regression

What are the key aspects of a forecasting exercise?

Beginning Early Taking expert inputs The tools used for demand forecasting cannot replace domain expertise Thinking of multiple solutions Being on the field

NEED FOR THE STUDY

This analysis helps to pre estimate the demand about automatic cool watches . This analysis helps concern to get the decision about the market & design suitable strategies for expansion. Since forecasting considers backbone of the company sales, this progression will lead to the success of the companys expansion strategy. This analysis helps to know the opportunities & threats of automatic cool watches & its demand.

Short run forecasting

Short run forecasting is usually a period not exceeding one year. The following are the objectives of short run demand forecasting. To evolve a suitable production policy: Short term forecasts help the firm to plan the production so as to avoid the problems of over production and short supply. To plan the purchase pf raw materials: The firms can plan the purchase of raw materials at appropriate time to reduce the cost and control inventories.

Long run forecasting Long run forecasting is generally for a period exceeding 3 years. The following are the objectives of long run demand forecasting. To plan the establishment of a new unit or expansion of an existing unit: Planning of a new unit or expansion of an existing unit requires an analysis of the long term demand potential of the products. The competitive strength of the firm will be greater if it has better knowledge than the rivals of the growth trends in the economy.

OBJECTIVES

To identify potential demand for the watches at different areas. To estimate demand of watches in near future. To find out the usage of watches in different areas. To study & understand the feature, characterstics, appearance of automatic cool watches by the customer. To identify competitor market demand.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Research Design
The research design which was selected was narrative one. It narrates the whole research in a simple manner. Types of data collected Primary data Questionnaires are prepared & interview was conducted. Most of the questions consist of multiple questions. The questionnaire was conducted in English. Generally 10 questions are prepared to ask about china mobiles in Tekkali.

Secondary Data Secondary data was collected from internets, various books, journals & company records. Questionnaire construction In this Questionnaire Constructed on the basis of two types. There are Multiple choice and close ended (Yes/ No) Questions. Defining the population

The population or universe can be infinite. The population is said to be finite if it consist a fixed number of elements so that it is possible to enumerate it in its totality. So in this project consist of finite population.

SAMPLE SIZE Nearly 50 sample are taken in Tekkali locations. FIELD WORK The field works is done at Tekkali. DESCRIPTION OF STATISTICAL TOOLS USED Percentage method Weighted average

PERCENTAGE METHOD: In this project Percentage method test was used. The following are the formula No of Respondent Percentage of Respondent = x 100Total no. of Respondents.

WEIGHTED AVERAGE METHOD

Weighted average can be defined as an average whose component items are multiplied by certain values (weights) & the aggregate of the products are divided by the total of weights. One of the limitations of simple arithmetic mean is that it gives equal importance to all the items of the distribution.

 In certain cases relative importance of all the items in the distribution is not the same where the importance of the items varies. It is essential to allocate weight applied but may vary indifferent cases. Thus weight age is a number standing for the relative importance of the items.

HYPOTHESIS

Development of a Demand Forecasting Model for the Specialty Plant Nutrition Industry in India (can be applied to any industry where past demand data is unavailable or unreliable or where the past is not representative of the future). The demand forecasting model proposed here may be applied to any industry where past demand data is unreliable or not available. It may also be applied to predict short term demand

DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION

1. Are you currently using watch?

S. No 1 2 Total Usage of watches Yes No Respondents 45 5 50 Percent(%) 90 10 100.0

Chart Title
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes No usage of watches

Percent

Usage of watches

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 40% of the population is using watches & 10% of population is not using the watches.

2. Which company watch would you like to prefer?

S. no 1 2 3 4 Total

Type of watches Rolex Sonata Titan watches Others

Respondents 10 15 20 5 50

Percent(%) 15 25 45 15 100.0

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Average below average

Percent

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% rolex sonata Titan watches Others

Company

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 15% of population are using Nokia mobiles, 25% of population are using Samsung mobiles, 45% of population are using china mobiles, and 15% of population is using other company mobiles.

3. Are you satisfied with the watch which you are using?

S. no 1 2 Total

Satisfaction Yes No

Respondents 35 15 50

Percent(%) 75 25 100.0

80% 70% 60% 50%

Percent

40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Yes No

No of respondents

Satisfaction

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 75% of population is satisfied with the watch which they are using & 25% of population are unsatisfied with the mobile which they are using.

4. Which of the following reasons you want to choose to say this is the best?

S. no 1 2 3 4 Total

Reasons User friendly Higher durability Modern & stylish Cheaper

Respondents 10 7 13 20 50

Percent(%) 18 12 25 45 100.0

Sales
18% 45%
User friendly

12%

Higher durability Modern & stylish

25%

Cheaper 18

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 10% of the population think that it is a user friendly & 7% of population thinks that it has a higher durability & 13% of the population thinks it looks modern & stylish & 20% population thinks that it is of cheaper rate.

5. Are you satisfied with the features providing by the watches?

S. no 1 2 Total

Satisfied with the Feature Yes No

Respondents 38 12 50

Percent(%) 85 15 100.0

90 80 70 60

Percent(%)

50 40 30 20 10 0 Yes No Satisfied with the features

Satisfied with the Feature

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 38% of the population are satisfied with their features of the watch & 12% of population is not using the mobiles.

6. How do you know about the watches?

S. no 1 2 3 4 Total

How
TV advertisements newspapers Friends others

Respondents 20 12 10 8 50

Percent(%) 40 25 20 15 100.0

How
15% 40% 20% 25%
Tv advertisements Newspapers Friends Others

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 40% of the population got the information from Tv advertisements & 25% of population got the information from newspapers & 20% of population got the formation from their friends & 15% of population got the information from other sources.

7. What is the first factor you will be taken into consideration for buying the watch? S. no 1 2 3 Total Factor Appearance Features Cost Respondents 10 15 25 50 Percent 20 35 45 100.0

50 45 40 35

Percent

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Appearance Features Cost Factors

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 14% of the population attract to its appearance & 16% of population attract to its features & 20% of the population prefer because of its cost as it is available at any cheaper rates.

8. Is your mobile a colour piece?

S. no 1 2 Total

Color piece Yes No

Respondents 45 5 50

Percent 90 10 100.0

100 90 80 70

Percent

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Yes No Respondents

Colour piece

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 45% of the population is using a colour watches where as 5% of the population is using a black & white piece.

9. Does it provide good service compared to other watches companies?

S. no 1 2 Total

Service Yes No

Respondents 40 10 50

Percent 80 20 100.0

90 80 70 60

Percent

50 40 30 20 10 0 Yes No Service

Service

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 80% of the population is satisfied with the service provided by the company where as 20% of the population is unsatisfied with the service provided by the company.

10. Does it have good signal quality?

S. no 1 2 Total

Signal quality Yes No

Respondents 38 12 50

Percent 80 20 100.0

90 80 70 60 50

Percent

40 30 20 10 0 Yes No

Signal Quality

Signal Quality

Interpretation: From the above bar diagram, we interpret that 80% of the population is satisfied with the signal quality provided by the company where as 20% of the population is unsatisfied with the signal quality provided by the company.

FINDINGS OF THE STUDY

From the study it is found that 10% is Rolex, 15% is sonata, 20% is titan, 5% is other company watches. It is found that 75% of the population is satisfied with the watches which they are using. From the study it is found that, most of them where satisfied with the signal quality (80%) & they also satisfied with the service provided by them. It is found that most of the population is using this watches as it is available at cheaper rates with different features &in different models & due to this sales also been increased. It is found that most of the population is getting to know about the different types of watches launched by the company through TV advertisements, newspapers, friends & others. It is found that most of the population is at first attracted to the appearance, & to its features. From the study it is found that nearly 90% of the population is using the watches & nearly 90% of the population is using the color piece.

SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

Overall study is observed that there is high demand for watches in future & the survey has been taken place in Tekklai. The companies can adopt new technology with effective features which may increase the sales of the watches. The company can follow expansion strategy.

LIMITATIONS

The study is based on small population like 50 samples. The time duration of the study is less the expected. Since this is the new project called DEMAND & FORECASTING OF AUTOMATIC COOL WATCHES sufficient review literature/case study is not available. The project data can be valid to 6 months; hence there are changes of changes in the findings & result obtained.

SCOPE FOR THE FUTURE STUDY

The project shows light on usage of automatic cool watches. The project was developed to identify potential demand for china mobiles in Tekklai. It will be helpful for the others to know about is future study. This project can be base for the students who are doing the project in related area.

CONCLUSION

The increasing competition in watches Sector is compelling retailers to use demand forecasting tools. Retailers who have their own brand labels use the forecasting techniques of the kind we study in theory.

On the other hand, small scale retailers can employ qualitative techniques on the
historical data and considering the behavior trends in the ma

QUESTIONNAIRE ON DEMAND FORECASTING OF WATCHES Name:

1. Are you currently using watch? Yes No Contact No:

2. Which company watches would you like to prefer? Titan sonata c Rolex others

3. Are you satisfied with the watch which you are using? Yes No

4. Which of the following reasons you want to choose to say this is the best? User friendly Higher durability Modern & stylish Cheaper 5. Are you satisfied with the features providing by the watches? YES No

6. How do you know about the watches? TV advertisements newspapers Friends others

7. What is the first factor you will be taken into consideration for buying the watch? Appearance Features Cost

8. Is your watch a colour piece? Yes No

9. Does it provide good service compared to other watches companies? Yes No

10. Does it have good signal quality? Yes No