Академический Документы
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April2013
DisclaimerandNotes
This disclaimer applies to this document and the oral comments made by the individuals presenting it (the Presentation). Forward Looking Statements: This Presentation contains certain forwardlooking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forwardlooking statements relate to, among other things, the operating performance of our investments, the stability of our earnings, our financing needs, potential investments, estimated investment returns and assumptions underlying those returns (including, but not limited to, recapture rates, prepayments rates, default rates), projected dividend growth and interest rate changes. Forwardlooking statements are generally identifiable by use of forwardlooking terminology such as may, will, should, potential, intend, expect, endeavor, seek, anticipate, estimate, overestimate, underestimate, believe, could, project, predict, continue, target or other similar words or expressions. Forwardlooking statements are based on certain assumptions, discuss future expectations, describe future plans and strategies, contain projections of results of operations or of financial condition or state other forwardlooking information. Our ability to predict results or the actual outcome of future plans or strategies is inherently uncertain. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in such forwardlooking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, our actual results and performance could differ materially from those set forth in the forward looking statements. These forwardlooking statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. Factors which could have a material adverse effect on our operations and future prospects include, but are not limited to: reductions in cash flows received from our investments; our ability to take advantage of opportunities in additional asset classes or types of assets, at attractive riskadjusted prices; our ability to take advantage of opportunities in investments in excess mortgage servicing rights; our ability to deploy capital accretively; the risks that prepayment, default and recovery rates on our real estate securities and loan portfolios deteriorate compared to our underwriting estimates; the relationship between yields on assets which are paid off and yields on assets in which such monies can be reinvested; the relative spreads between the yield on the assets we invest in and the cost of financing; changes in economic conditions generally and the real estate and bond markets specifically; adverse changes in the financing markets we access affecting our ability to finance our investments, or in a manner that maintains our historic net spreads; changing risk assessments by lenders that potentially lead to increased margin calls, not extending our repurchase agreements or other financings in accordance with their current terms or entering into new financings with us; changes in interest rates and/or credit spreads, as well as the success of any hedging strategy we may undertake in relation to such changes; the quality and size of the investment pipeline and the rate at which we can invest our cash, including cash inside our collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs; changes in the fair value of our excess servicing assets, our dependence on mortgage servicers to service the mortgages underlying our excess servicing assets, GSE initiatives and other actions that may adversely affect returns on our excess servicing assets; impairments in the value of the collateral underlying our investments and the relation of any such impairments to our judgments as to whether changes in the market value of our securities, loans or real estate are temporary or not and whether circumstances bearing on the value of such assets warrant changes in carrying values; legislative/regulatory changes, including, but not limited to, any modification of the terms of loans; the availability and cost of capital for future investments; competition within the finance and real estate industries; and other risks detailed from time to time in our Securities and Exchange Commission reports. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forwardlooking statements, which reflect our managements views as of the date of this Presentation significantly from those contained in any forwardlooking statement. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forwardlooking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements. We are under no duty to update any of the forward looking statements after the date of this Presentation to conform these statements to actual results. Expected, Targeted or Modeled Returns: Expected, targeted or modeled returns are estimates of the annualized effective rate of return that the Company presently expects to be earned or targets to be earned over the expected average life of an investment (i.e., IRR), after giving effect to existing leverage (if any), calculated on a weighted average basis, projected market conditions and other factors. Income recognized by the Company in future periods may be significantly less than the income that would have been recognized if an expected, targeted or modeled return were actually realized, and the estimates we use to calculate expected returns would differ materially from actual results. Statements about expected, targeted or modeled returns in this Presentation are forwardlooking statements. You should carefully read the cautionary statement above under the caption ForwardLooking Statements, which directly applies to our discussion of expected, targeted or modeled returns. Past performance: In all cases where historical performance is presented, please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be relied upon as the basis for making an investment decision. Risk Factors: Investing in Newcastles or New Residentials common stock involves a high degree of risk. For more information on such risks, please refer to the factors detailed from time to time in our Securities and Exchange Commission reports. No reliance, no update and use of information: You should not rely exclusively on the Presentation as the basis upon which to make an investment decision. The information in the Presentation is provided to you as of the dates indicated and Newcastle does not intend to update the information after its distribution, even in the event that the information becomes materially inaccurate. Certain information contained in the Presentation includes calculations or figures that have been prepared internally and have not been audited or verified by a third party. Use of different methods for preparing, calculating or presenting information may lead to different results and such differences may be material.
DisclaimerandNotes continued
Abbreviations: This Presentation includes abbreviations, which have the following meanings: 30+ DQ Percentage of loans that are delinquent by 30 days or more Age (mths) or Loan Age (mths) Weighted average number of months loans are outstanding Cash Basis Initial investment less cash received life to date CDR Constant Default Rate CLTV ratio of current loan balance to estimated current asset value. CPR Constant Prepayment Rate CRR Constant Repayment Rate Cur UPB UPB as of the end of the current month Excess MSRs monthly interest payments generated by the related MSRs, net of a basic fee paid to the servicer. FICO A borrowers credit metric generated by the credit scoring model created by the Fair Isaac Corporation Flow Arrangements contractual recurring agreements, often monthly or quarterly, to purchase servicing of newly originated or highly delinquent loans LTD Cash Flows Actual cash flow collected from the investment as of the end of the current month LTD Life to Date NonPerforming Loans NPLs Orig. UPB UPB as of the investments acquisition date Proj. Future Cash Flows Future cash flow projected with the Companys original underwriting assumptions Recapture Rate Percentage of fully prepaid loans that are refinanced by Nationstar and will be put back into the pool Uncollected Payments Percentage of loans that missed their most recent payment UPB Unpaid Principal Balance Updated Modeled IRR Internal rate of return calculated based on the cash flow received to date through the current month and the projected future cash flow based on our original underwriting assumptions. WA Weighted Average WAL Weighted Average Life to Maturity WAC Weighted Average Coupon
ExecutiveSummary
WeexpecttocompletethespinoffofNewResidentialonoraboutMay15,2013
Newcastle(NYSE:NCT)willspinoffallofitsinvestmentsinExcessMSRsandcertainotherassets
NewResidential(NYSE:NRZ)willbeanewpubliclytradedrealestateinvestmenttrust
OnApril25,2013,theNewcastleBoardsetMay6astheRecordDateforthedistribution(1) Expectedtoimprovetransparencyandunlockshareholdervalue(2)
Investorshavereactedpositivelysincespinoffannouncement NCTup+20%(3) Potentialforfurtherdividendyieldtighteningbasedontheyieldsofcomparablepeers
Followingthespinoff,weexpectbothcompaniestohaverobustgrowthpipelines
AnticipatedSpinOffTimeline
WeexpectNRZandNCTtotradeasseparatepubliccompaniesonoraboutMay16
Boardformally declareddistribution ofNRZshares&sets RecordDate
RecordDate
Dec.18
Jan.7
Apr.25
May2
May6
May15
May16
ExpectSECtodeclare Form10effective
Tradingonthree marketscontinues
Distribution Date
2012
2013(3)
1) Inthewhenissuedmarket,therighttotheNewResidential sharesdistributedontheDistributionDatewilltrade.Theseshareswillsettleshortlyafterthedistributiondate. 2) Intheregularwaymarket,sharesofNewcastlecommonstockwilltradewiththerighttotheNewResidential sharesdistributedontheDistributionDate.Intheex dividendmarket,sharesofNewcastlecommonstockwilltradewithouttherighttotheNewResidential sharesdistributedonthe DistributionDate. 3) Newcastlesdistributions(ofcashandstock)inanyyeararetaxabletotaxableshareholderstotheextentofNewcastlesearningsandprofitsfortheyear.Thedistributionof NewResidential stockwillcontributetoNewcastlesearningsandprofitstotheextentthatthevalueofthesharesdistributed exceedsNewcastlestaxbasisintheNew Residential assets.Anyamountdistributedinexcessofearningsandprofitsisfirstallocatedtoreturnofcapitaltotheextentofashareholdersbasisandthentocapitalgain. PleaserefertotheForm10formoreinformationandconsultyourtaxadvisor.
TwoFocusedCompanies
Uponcompletionofthespin:
NRZwillhaveinvestmentsinExcessMSRs,nonAgencyRMBS,AgencyRMBS,residentialmortgageloans, aswellasotherassets(1) NCTwillhaveinvestmentsinCDOs,seniorhousingproperties,otherrealestatedebt,andotherassets(1)
Newcastle
Manager Manager
NRZ(1)
ResidentialfocusedMortgageREIT
PostSpinNCT(1)
CommercialfocusedMortgageREIT
SpinOffExpectedtoDriveValue
1. 2. Potentialtoimprovetransparencyandunlockshareholdervalue Furtherdividendtighteningpossibleateachcompany
ThecurrentaverageyieldofNRZscomparablepeersis7.2%vs.NCTscurrentyieldof8.1%(1,2) ThecurrentaverageyieldofNCTscomparablecommercialpeersis7.7%(1,2)
AsNCTgrowsitsseniorhousingexposure,weexpectmoretighteningbasedontheyieldsofhealthcarepeers
NRZ ComparablePeers(1,2)
Dividend Yield RedwoodTrust HLSS PennyMacMortgage Average 4.84% 7.18% 9.59% 7.20% Market Cap($mm) $1,891 $1,330 $1,403
NCT ComparablePeers(1,2,3)
Dividend Yield CommercialREITAvg. HealthcareREITAvg. Average 7.69% 4.30% 6.00% Market Cap($mm) $1,406 $9,972
1) SelectedpeergrouprepresentsanonexhaustivelistofpubliclytradedREITsthatmanagement believesarecomparabletoNewResidential andNewcastle,respectively.The inclusionofotherissuerscouldchangethecomparableaveragedividendyield.Determinations ofcomparabilityhavebeenmade by management basedonNewcastles currentassetsandcommitments andthecompositionoftheportfoliothatNewcastlewillcontributetoNewResidentialinthespinoff.Otherindustryparticipantsmay expressadifferentview.Achangein,orthediversificationof,NewResidentials orNewcastlesportfoliocouldchangetheappropriatesetofcomparablepeersandthe relateddividendyield.NewResidentials investment inconsumerloansdifferentiatesNewResidential frompeers,buttheinvestment isexpectedtogeneratecashflows comparabletootherassetsinNewResidentials investment portfoliothataresimilartoassetsofselectedpeergroup. 2) Source:SNLFinancial.Informationasof4/25/2013.Thedividendyieldforeachcompanyinthecomparablesectorsisdefinedasthemostrecentdeclareddividend annualizedandexpressedasapercentageofeachcompanysstockprice. 3) PleaseseeEndnotesforalistofthecompaniesincludedintheCommercialREITandHealthREITaverages.
ModeledEconomicsoftheTwoCompanies*
NRZ(1)
ExcessMSRs(2) NonAgency RMBS(3) $600 mm $488mm ($302) mm $35mm $250 mm $54mm $55mm $1,180mm Less:CorporateDebt(8) TotalNewcastleValue ($112)mm $895mm SeniorHousing(7) AgencyRMBS InvestableCash (5) $76mm $15mm $76mm RealEstateDebt(6)
PostSpinNCT
$840mm
WAModeledNetIRR(9)
WAModeledNetIRR(9)
AssumedDividendYield(12)
Impliedprice/share: Impliedmarketcap.
7%
$8.71 $2.2bn
8%
$7.63 $1.9bn
9%
$6.78 $1.7bn
10%
$6.10 $1.5bn
7%
$7.14 $1.8bn
8%
$6.25 $1.6bn
9%
$5.56 $1.4bn
10%
$5.00 $1.3bn
*PleaserefertoEndnotesregardingtheamountspresentedandspecificdisclaimersrelatedtotheinformationonthispage.
NRZ GrowthPipeline
Robustpipelinefortargetinvestments Targeting15%to20%leveredreturns(1) TargetInvestments
ExcessMSRs
PipelineforGrowth(1)
+$300billionlegacy servicing(2) $25 50billion flowperyear ~$1trillionuniverseofNonAgency RMBS ~$220 billionNationstarservicedNonAgencyRMBS(3) ~$600billion U.S.nonperformingloan(NPL)universe(4) $25 40billionmidtermpipelineforNPLs Potentiallyseektoinvestinservicingadvancesorrelateddebt Marketdriven opportunistic investments,suchasrecent $250millionequityinvestmentinconsumerloans
NonAgencyRMBS
ResidentialMortgageLoans
ServicingAdvances
OtherInvestments
1) Representsmanagements currentestimate oftargetassetscurrentlyforsaleorexpectedtobesoldinapproximatelythenext 12 months.TherecanbenoassurancethatNew Residential willbeabletocompletetargetinvestments orthatsuchinvestments willgeneratetargetedreturns. 2) Wearecurrentlyindiscussionswithseveralfinancialinstitutions toacquireadditionalExcessMSRsrelatingtoresidentialmortgageloansthatcouldresultinourenteringintooneor moredefinitiveacquisitionagreements priortoorimmediately followingthespinoff.Potentialportfoliosincludeservicingrightsrelatingtoresidentialmortgageloanswithan aggregateUPBinexcessof$20billionfromalargefinancialinstitution.Wecanprovidenoassurancesthatwewillenterintotheseagreements orastothetiming ofanypotential acquisition. 3) Approximately$220billionasofJan2013includesservicingwhichhasbeencommitted tobuthasnotyetclosed.Thispurchaseissubjecttoclosingrequirements andregulatory approvals.Mayincludeservicingaswellasmasterservicing. 4) Currentestimates basedonresearchoffilingsofcertainlargebanksandFannieMaeandFreddieMacmonthlysummaries.
NCTPostSpin GrowthPipeline
Robustpipelinefortargetinvestments Targeting15%to20%leveredreturns(1)
TargetInvestments
PipelineforGrowth(1)
NCTLegacyAssets
SeniorLivingAssets
Opportunistic Restructurings
StrategicallymakeinvestmentswithinNCTsexistingreal estateandotherdebtportfolio
NewResidentialInvestmentCorp.
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SegmentsofResidentialMarket
Totalsizeoftheresidentialhousingsectorisapproximately$18trillion(1) WebelieveMSRs,nonAgencysecurities,andNPLsofferattractiveunleveredreturns
Opportunity Size(1)
1) 2) 3) 4)
FedFlowofFunds,4Q2012;InsideMortgageFinance,4Q2012;BankCompanyFilings, FannieMaeFilings, FreddieMacFilings, GinnieMaeFilings,2012. Representsmanagements currentestimates, whichcoulddiffermaterially fromactualresults. Estimated rangeofunleveredreturnsfornonAgencysecuritiesassumespotentialupsidefromcollapseopportunity. NewResidential hasinvestedinMSRsthroughcoinvestments inExcessMSRs.
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ResidentialServicingShiftStillUnderway
LargecomponentofourresidentialstrategyhasbeendrivenbyshiftofU.S.mortgageservicing
83%ofthenearly$10trillionservicingmarketisdominatedbybanks topfourbankscontrol48%(1)
Banksundersignificantpressuretoexitorreduceservicingexposuredueto:
Heightenedcapitalrequirements,regulatoryandheadlineriskandelevatedtroubledloanlevels
TotalSingleFamilyMortgages($tn)(1)
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11.2 11.1 10.9 10.4 10.2
4Q2012ServicingMarketShare(1)
Company UPB
$1.8tn $1.3tn $1.1tn $0.5tn $4.7tn $8.3tn $1.7tn
%Share
19% 13% 11% 5% 48% 83% 17%
11 10 9 8
7.2 8.3 9.4
10.5
$9.9 10.0
7 6 5 4
5.7
6.4
1) Source:InsideMortgageFinance,4Q12.Slightdiscrepanciesareduetorounding.
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ExcessMSRTransactions
Investedorcommittedtoinvest$608millionintenExcessMSRpools $293billionUPBofresidentialloans(1)
CoinvestalongsideNationstarMortgage,oneofthelargestandhighestqualitymortgageservicers Target1520%returns
ExcessMSRTransactionSummary
Date(2) ExcessMSR Ownership UPB ($bn) Excess MSR Price (bpsof UPB)
68 65 57 38 40 68 53 61 46 51
WAC (%)
Age (mth)
CLTV (%)
FICO
30+DQ
Pool1 GSE Pool2 GSE Pool3 GSE Pool4 GSE Pool5 PLS Pool6 Govt. Pool7 GSE(3) Pool8 GSE(3) Pools9&10 Govt. andPLS(4)
Dec 11 June12 June 12 June12 June12 Jan13 Jan13 Jan13 Jan13 Total/WA
6.0 5.3 4.7 4.0 4.9 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.0 5.1
58 54 69 61 67 43 74 66 75 70
687 705 690 684 659 674 711 719 700 694
9.6 15.2 17.6 24.1 34.7 16.4 17.5 14.5 24.7 23.3
29 23 23 17 13 25 16 19 13 17
1) 2) 3) 4)
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ExcessMSRPortfolio March2013
Received$81millioncashflow,21%ofinitialinvestmentoveranaveragetermof8 months Investmentsperformingbetterthanourinitialprojections
Prepaymentrateslower 18%lifetodatevs.21%initialprojection UpdatedIRRshigher 19%vs.17%initialprojection Recaptureratesaretrendinghigher
Collateral&PerformanceSummary(1)
UPB ($bn)
Pool1 GSE Pool2 GSE Pool3 GSE Pool4 GSE Pool5 PLS Pool6 Govt. Pool7 GSE(3) Pool8 GSE(3)
InvestmentPerformance($mm)(1)
3mth 49% 53% 38% 38% 2% 3% 25% Initial Inv. $44 $42 $36 $15 $125 $27 $67 $36 $392mm LTD Cash Flows $22 $11 $10 $4 $29 $2 $2 $1 $81mm Carrying Value $40 $39 $35 $15 $109 $26 $65 $35 $364mm Initial Est.IRR 20% 17% 18% 18% 17% 16% 16% 16% 17% Updated IRR(2) 26% 19% 22% 21% 18% 16% 16% 16% 19%
WAC (%) 5.7 5.1 4.5 3.6 4.7 5.6 5.2 5.6 5.0%
FICO 1mth 684 676 677 673 652 662 711 719 682 27% 27% 18% 17% 16% 27% 19% 28% 21%
CPR LTD 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 24% 19% 28% 18%
Total/WA
1) AsofMarch31,2013exceptforpools7&8whichareshownasofFebruary28,2013.Pleaserefertodisclaimerandnotesforexplanationofabbreviatedterms.Thisdoesnot includePool9andPool10,referredtoonthepreviouspage,whichwehavecommitted tobutnotyetclosed. 2) UpdatedIRRisbasedupontheCompanyscurrentassumptionsregardingprepayment,recaptureanddefaultrates.Actualresultsmaydiffermaterially. UpdatedIRRis calculatedusingthecashflowreceivedtodateandtheprojectedfuturecashflowsbasedonourinitialunderwritingassumptions,exceptforareductionintherecapturerate assumptionforPool5. 3) Theaggregateinitialinvestment amountforPool7andPool8includes~$20million whichwillbefundedwhentheservicingtransferofthesepoolstoNationstariscomplete.
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NonAgencyRMBSOpportunity
Approximately$1trillionmarketofferstremendousinvestmentpotential
Recentlyoutperformedvirtuallyeveryfixedincomesector(1) upsidefromcurrentvaluations Twowaystodrivevalue:1) improveportfolioperformance,and2)collapsedeals
OutstandingNonAgencyRMBS($tn)(2)
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 $1tn $2tn
NationstarNonAgencyServicing(3)
$220bn
0.5
$7bn
0.0
2011 2012 Jan2013 Jan 2013
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DriveValue ImprovePortfolioPerformance
100%ofNewResidentialnonAgencyRMBSportfolioisservicedbyNationstar(1,2)
Nationstarisaleadingserviceratloweringdelinquenciesandreducingdefaults(3)
LeadingServiceratLoweringDQs(%)(3)
60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
14%
BestServiceratCuringLoans(%)(3)
12%
12%
10%
26%
8%
6%
4%
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ConsumerLoanPortfolio
InApril2013,a$4.2billionUPB(1) consumerloanportfoliowasacquiredfromHSBC(2) foratotalpurchasepriceof$3.0billion
Investmentwasfinancedusing$2.2billionofasset backednotes Approximately$800millionofequitysharedbetween NewResidential(30%),SpringleafFinance(47%)and BlackstoneTacticalOpportunitiesAdvisorsL.L.C.(23%)
NewResidentialmadeanequityinvestmentof approximately$250million
PortfolioSnapshot
Approx. LoanCount AverageLoanBalance AverageSeasoning Expected AverageLoanLife +400,000 $9,500 93months 3years
Afteratransitionperiod,SpringleafFinancewillservice theloanportfolio
Experiencedservicerwithstrongperformancetrack record NewResidentialwillnothaveanyservicingdutiesor liabilitiesassociatedwiththeportfolio
Personal Secured Homeowner Loans Loans 30% 30%
Unsecured Loans Loans 70% 70%
Unsecured
1) UPBasofDecember31,2012. 2) ReferstoHSBCFinanceCorporationandcertainofitsaffiliates.
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NewcastleInvestmentCorp.
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RealEstateDebt
Manage4CDOsandotherrealestaterelatedinvestmentsthroughourtraditionalbusiness
$2.6billiondiversifiedportfoliofinancedwith$1.5billionofprimarilymatchfunded,nonrecoursedebt(1)
Attheendof1Q2013,expecttorecover$780 $830millionofprincipalovera5yearweightedaveragelife(3)
Proformafornewinvestmentsmadesince1Q2013,expecttorecover$800 $850millionofprincipal
WhatWeOwn
AsofMarch31,2013
Financing Assets
$2.64bnfaceamount WAL2.7years 6.1%WAC
$1.48bnfaceamount WAL1.7years 2.2%cost
NCTExpectedPrincipalRecovery(3)
5YearWAL
Mar.31,2013(4)
NCTDirect Holdings(2)
$1.16bn
$780 $830mm
1) Includes$0.3billionofagencysecuritiesfinancedwith$0.3billionofrepurchaseagreements. 2) NCTdirectholdingsrepresentsthefaceamountofassetslessthefaceamountoffinancing. 3) Theseamountsreflectavarietyofassumptions, andactualrecoveryvaluemaydiffermaterially fromthecurrentestimate. Expectedrecoveriesareforwardlookingstatements thatareinherentlyuncertain,basedonanumberoffactorsbeyondourcontrolandmaynotberealized.PleaseseeForwardLookingStatements. 4) March31,2013principalreflectsanunaudited estimate ofexpectedfuturerecoveryvalueoftheprincipalofrealestateand otherdebtasofMarch31,2013. 5) Proformaprincipalreflectsanunaudited estimate ofexpectedfuturerecoveryvalueoftheprincipalofrealestateandotherdebtasofMarch31,2013with proforma adjustments for$17millionofnewinvestments sinceMarch31,2013.
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SeniorHousingMarket
Supplydemanddislocationdrivingattractivelyvaluedoneoffopportunities
Populationgrowthdrivingincreaseddemandforseniorhousing newsupplyislimited
Over$300billionofassetsintheU.S.,butownershipisstillhighlyfragmented(1)
Industrydominatedbymom&popoperatorslackingoperatingexpertisetomaximizeperformance
GrowingDemand(2)
(U.S.population70yearsorolder)
FragmentedIndustry(3)
39mm
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SeniorHousingUpdate March2013(1)
SinceJuly2012,wehaveinvestedover$80milliontoacquire12properties grossinitialinvestmentof $201million(2) financedwith$120millionofdebt Inthe1Q2013,generated14.5%leveredyield,vs.initialprojectionof12.4%
Totalcashflowsof$2.6 million comparedto$2.1 millionprojected Weightedaverageoccupancyratewas87.5% comparedto85.9%projected Totaloperatingexpenseswere$8.3million comparedto$8.5millionprojected
Acquisition Date
Properties
Current Beds
Debt ($mm)
Avg.Occupancy
Actual Proj.
Avg.Rev/Bed
Actual Proj.
UnleveredYield
Actual Proj.
LeveredYield
Actual Proj.
July12
836
$153
$88
89.9%
87.6%
$4,234
$4,338
7.8%
7.2%
13.5%
11.8%
Nov12
359
25
16
80.1%
78.1%
2,396
2,421
10.2%
9.1%
19.4%
15.9%
Dec12
221
23
16
90.6%
92.5%
2,436
2,443
8.6%
7.3%
18.6%
14.2%
Total/WA
12
1,416
$201
$120
87.5%
85.9%
3,517
3,576
8.2%
7.4%
14.5%
12.4%
1) AsofMarch31,2013. 2) Includesrelatedtransactioncostsandworkingcapital.
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ENDNOTES SpinOffExpectedtoDriveValue
1) 2) Commercial REIT Average includes dividend yield and market capitalizations for: RAIT Financial Trust, Arbor Realty Trust, Colony Financial, Starwood Property Trust Inc., NorthStar Realty Finance Corp., CreXus Investment Corp, Apollo Commercial RE, and Resource Capital. Healthcare REIT Average includes dividend yield and market capitalizations for: Ventas Inc., HCP Inc., LTC Properties Inc., Healthcare Realty Trust, Health Care REIT Inc., National Health Investors, Medical Properties Trust, and Senior Housing Properties.
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ENDNOTES ModeledEconomicsoftheTwoCompanies
1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) Newcastles ability to complete the spinoff of New Residential is subject to the SEC declaring the registration statement relating to the spinoff effective. Reflects the unaudited estimated fair market value of Excess MSRs as of March 31, 2013 with pro forma adjustments for the portion of the $215 billion UPB Excess MSR transaction which has not closed. The actual amount invested will depend on the UPB at closing. Reflects the unaudited estimated amortized cost basis of nonAgency RMBS as of March 31, 2013. Reflects the outstanding principal balance of repurchase agreements related to our nonAgency RMBS as of April 24, 2013. Investable cash for each of New Residential and Newcastle reflects estimated uncommitted investable cash as of the completion of the spinoff. Actual cash balances may differ materially. Reflects an unaudited estimate of expected future recovery value of the principal of real estate and other debt investments as of March 31, 2013 with pro forma adjustments for $17 million of new investments since March 31, 2013. This amount reflects a variety of assumptions, including estimates regarding amount of principal repayment of assets based on current credit profile. Actual recovery value may differ materially from the current estimate. Reflects cumulative investments in senior housing as of March 31, 2013, including working capital, net of financing. Reflects face amount of the junior subordinated notes and preferred equity as of March 31, 2013. Modeled Net IRR may differ materially from actual returns. WA Modeled Net IRRs indicated are based on a variety of assumptions and estimates, including assumptions with respect to gross investment returns, attainable leverage and estimates of corporate overhead expenses, which will differ for each business. WA Modeled Net IRRs will also be affected by among other things, the risks identified in the reports Newcastle and New Residential have filed with the SEC. Following the spinoff, corporate overhead expenses of Newcastle and New Residential are expected to increase on an aggregate basis as a result of management compensation and general and administrative expenses payable by New Residential.
7) 8) 9)
10) Represents the product of WA Modeled Net IRR and Total New Residential Value or Total Newcastle Value, as applicable. Slight discrepancies are due to rounding. 11) Per share amounts reflect an estimated 259 million diluted shares of Newcastle common stock as of April 25, 2013 reflecting approximately 253 million common shares outstanding and potential dilution from outstanding options. Actual dilution will depend on various factors, including the share price of Newcastle and New Residential subsequent to the spinoff. New Residential per share amount assumes the distribution of one share of New Residential for each share of Newcastle. 12) Dividend yields presented are for illustrative purposes only. Actual dividend yields may differ materially. Corresponding price per share assumes 100% payout of stated per share amount. Implied market cap. reflects approximately 253 million common shares outstanding.
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