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Regional Daily, 27 June 2013

Regional Daily

Ideas Troika

Leng Seng Choon CFA 65 6232 3890


sengchoon.leng@sg.oskgroup.com

The recent weakness in MAS share price provides trading opportunities, and our analyst has upgraded MAS to trading BUY. Although 2Q is a seasonally weak quarter for most airlines and MAS could potentially incur 2Q losses, the positive y-o-y trend for MAS' May 2013 operating statistics is a big plus.

PTT Global Chemical Pcl. (PTTGC TB) Basic Material Chemicals BUY THB67.8 TP: THB82.1 Mkt Cap : USD 9.8bn Analyst: Kannika Siamwalla Email: Kannika.si@th.oskgroup.com

PTTGC has announced that its wholly owned subsidairy PTT Phenol (PPCL) will invest a total of THB10bn into capacity expansion, with commercial operations targeted to begin in 2015. Funding will be via THB7bn in loans and THB3bn from equity injection. PTTGC aims to have PPCL expand further downstream, such as into polycarbonate or epoxy resins, which should boost its value in the future. Given its recent share price decline, we believe now is a good time to BUY into the stock. We value PTTGC at THB82/share based on 1.5x 2013P/BV. We believe that this is a reasonable valuation given regional peers are trading at an average of 18x P/E and 2.2x P/BV. Whilst PTTGC's share price performance has been in line with regional peers over the past 12months, its share price has lagged behind in the past six months. PTTGC is currently trading at 9x P/E and 1.2x P/BV. We upgrade from NEUTRAL to BUY, with our TP maintained at THB82 (base on 1.5x P/BV).

Skyworth Digital (751 HK) Consumer - Household Goods BUY HKD4.00/ TP HKD 7.05 (under review) Mkt Cap : USD 1.4bn Analyst: Billy Leung Email: billy.leung@hk.oskgroup.com

Skyworth reported its FY3/13 annual results last night with revenue and net profit of HKD37.8bn (+34% y-o-y) and HKD1.50bn (+20% y-o-y) respectively. Recurring net profit, which excludes FX gain/losses, impairment and fair value changes came in at HKD1.54bn (+20% y-o-y) and was 7% above RHB OSK forecasts. The strong top line was supported by solid demand for TVs and Skyworth's improving product mix which is shifting to higher end smart and cloud TVs. In addition, sales of set top boxes which accounted for 10% of revenue remained solid despite a competitive and commoditised market. Outlook remains solid as TV sales for 2MFY3/14 are up 33% y-o-y vs. our current forecasts of 14% full year growth. We believe the market is likely to react positively to the results and analyst upgrades are likely after the results meeting at 9:30 (Hong Kong time) today. Shares of Skyworth are currently trading at 5.6x FY3/14F PE vs. Peers of 10x FY14F.

Malaysian Airline System (MAS MK) Consumer Cyclical - Airlines TRADING BUY MYR0.31/TP MYR0.43 Mkt Cap : USD 1.6bn Analyst: Jerry Lee Email: jerry.lee@rhbgroup.com

We see trading opportunities in Malaysian Airline System (MAS) in view of the recent weaknesses in its share price. The airline continues to report positive growth in its operating stats, which shows that it is moving on the right track. Nonetheless, we do see embedded risks as its depressed yield may dampen Managements turnaround efforts. Nonetheless, with a 38% potential upside, we upgrade MAS to Trading BUY, with FV unchanged at MYR0.43.

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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27 June 2013

Table of Contents
Hong Kong China South City (BUY, HKD1.70, TP:HKD2.26) Stelux Holdings International Ltd (BUY, HKD2.07, TP:HKD2.93) 3 4

Malaysia

Malaysian Airline TP:MYR0.43)

System

(TRADING

BUY,

MYR0.30,

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Company Update, 26 June 2013

China South City (1668 HK)


Property - Real Estate Market Cap: USD1,333m

Buy (Maintained)
Target Price: Price:
Macro

HKD2.26 HKD1.70

Strong Results Trump Expectations

Risks Growth Value

China South City Holdings (1668 HK)


Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS)

1.9

1.8
1.7

145
137

1.6
1.5

129
121

0 0 . 3 0 China South City (CSC) on Monday evening announced FY13 earnings 0 . of HKD1.7bn (+145% y-o-y), which is 21% above our forecast. The DPS 0 0 of 10 cent declared represents a 33.3% payout, which is at the high end 0 of its guidance of 30%-33.3% and in line with our estimate. We raise our FY14F and FY15F earnings forecasts by 2% and 3% respectively, and nudge up our TP by 1% to HKD2.26, based on a 48% discount (vs 45% previously) to our new end-FY14 ENAV of HKD4.35. Maintain BUY.

2 . 2 0 . 3

1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1


1.0

113 105 97 89
81

0.9 35
30

73

25 20
15

Offers attractive 6.9% dividend yield. We raise our FY14F and FY15F earnings forecasts by 2% and 3% respectively to HKD2.4bn and HKD3.6bn, mainly due to a lower effective income tax rate of 47.5%; which was historically at 50% and dropped to 43.5% in FY13 due to the Groups geographical diversification. Its income tax rate, in turn, was offset by higher operating and finance costs. To be prudent, we have lowered our payout ratio estimates to 30% (down from 33.3% in FY13), which is at the lower end of managements guidance of 30%-33.3%. Contracted sales target of HKD11.0bn for FY14F. According to management, CSCs contracted sales spread for FY14F are likely to be similar to FY13Fs, with 25% (or HKD2.75bn) in 1HFY14F and the remaining 75% (or HKD8.25bn) in 2HFY14F. As of June-end, we estimate CSC has 30% of FY3/14F revenue locked in through presales and believe the sales target is achievable. HKD10.0bn capex in FY14F. Management intends to complete construction of properties with a combined gross floor area (GFA) of 3.8m sq m in FY14F (up from 1.9m sq m in FY13). In FY14F, we expect CSC to spend c.HKD7.0bn-HKD8.0bn in construction costs and HKD2.0bn to acquire land, which includes the HKD1.3bn spent in May to purchase land in Hefei with a GFA of 3.94m sq m. Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of HKD2.26. We continue to like CSC for its: i) strong earnings growth in FY14F (up 40% y-o-y), ii) attractive and growing dividend yield of 6.9% for FY14F and 10.6% for FY15F, based on 30% payout, and iii) a 61% discount to end-FY14F ENAV of HKD4.35/share. Our new TP of HKD2.26 is based on a higher 48% discount to end-FY14F ENAV (previously: 45% discount to end-FY13 ENAV of HKD4.07/share) to reflect its peers average P/B of 0.52. Maintain BUY.
Mar-11 2,234 491 33.9 0.26 0.02 1.5 8.2 16.0 6.55 0.97 14.9 Mar-12 3,671 692 41.0 0.35 0.07 4.4 8.0 17.6 4.92 0.79 21.4 Mar-13 7,488 1,693 144.5 0.45 0.10 5.9 7.5 19.1 3.74 0.65 31.6 Mar-14F 10,676 2,373 40.1 0.39 0.12 6.9 5.3 14.2 4.34 0.58 33.2 Mar-15F 14,627 3,638 53.3 0.60 0.18 10.6 7.1 19.1 2.83 0.50 33.8

Vol m

10 5
Oct-12

May-13
Jun-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Source: Bloomberg

Mar-13

Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Shareholders (%) Cheng Chung Hing Chen Hong Tian Leung Moon Lam Shariah compliant

10.6m/1.35m na 32.9 1.06 - 1.83 27

40.4 12.4 10.6

Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (HKDm) Recurring net profit (HKDm) Recurring net profit growth (%)

Niki Yeung +852 2103 9411


niki.yeung@hk.oskgroup.com

EPS (HKD) DPS (HKD) Dividend Yield (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) Net debt to equity (%)

Source: Company data, RHB-OSK HK estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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Results Review, 26 June 2013

Stelux Holdings International Ltd (84 HK)


Consumer Cyclical - Retail Market Cap: USD279m

Buy (Maintained)
Target Price: Price:
Macro

HKD2.93 HKD2.07

Numbers Tick Up

Risks Growth Value

Stelux Holdings International (84 HK)


Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS)

3.6

208

3.1

180

0 0 . 3 0 0 This report marks the transfer of coverage on Stelux to Eugene Mak. . 0 Steluxs FY3/13 recurring net profit slid 7% y-o-y to HKD233m, missing 0 RHB-OSK and consensus estimates by 14% and 10% respectively, 0 mainly due to higher-than-expected rental costs. We cut our FY14/15 net profit forecasts by 14%/2% and our TP to HKD2.93 from HKD3.40. Maintain BUY call based on a target FY14F P/E of 10x (0.5 SD above the stocks past 5-year forward mean P/E) and FY14F EPS of HKD0.29.

3 . 3 0 . 3

2.6

152

2.1

124

1.6

96

1.1 25
Vol m

68

20
15

10 5
Oct-12

May-13

Jun-12

Aug-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

FY13 results miss estimates. Turnover grew 9.5% y-o-y to HKD3,647m, which was largely in line. The Groups gross margin (GPM) improved by 0.8ppt due to the companys stable pricing strategy and improving product mix, with a higher contribution from house brands, which now account for 40%-45% of sales (GPM 70%-80% vs distributed brands GPM of 50%-65%). However, operating margin dipped 0.9ppt, mainly due to increased losses from Optical 88s China operations in 2H13 as a result of high rental costs and overheads in Guangzhou and four new shops in Shanghai that opened in 2H13. This brings the number of China City Chain and Optical 88 shops to 88 (net drop of 13) and 40 (a net increase of 5) respectively. In FY13, the China operation reported a total turnover of HKD277m (FY12: HKD237m) and operating loss of HKD81m (FY12: loss of HKD67m). Revamping China operations. The Group has stepped up the operational revamp in its China operation by putting in a new management team with vast local retail experience in China with the aim of re-establishing Steluxs position as a key retail player in China. The Group has changed its Optical 88 strategy to focus more on recurring customers rather than one-off tourists, with Optical 88 and City Chain focusing on lower tier cities going forward. The Group has also closed down around 20 non-performing stores in China, which significantly improve operating efficiency and SSSG. In line with this strategy, it will shut two of its four Shanghai stores once their rental contracts end. Brighter outlook ahead. We expect recovery in the Groups earnings growth and margin improvement. SSSG in 1Q14 was reassuring, with HK SSSG at double digits and China at high-single digits. Stelux is aiming for its China operation to break even before 2015.
Mar-12 3,331 250 250 91.3 0.24 0.09 4.3 8.65 23.2 1.68 13.1 5.62 24.3 Mar-13 3,647 233 233 (7.0) 0.22 0.07 3.5 9.30 18.1 1.55 9.3 6.20 30.1 Mar-14F 4,104 306 306 31.5 0.29 0.09 4.2 7.08 17.4 1.02 6.7 3.90 0.5 (10.3) Mar-15F 4,634 408 408 33.4 0.39 0.12 5.7 5.30 17.8 0.88 3.5 2.57 net cash (2.0) Mar-16F 5,235 456 456 11.7 0.44 0.13 6.3 4.75 17.2 0.76 4.3 2.10 net cash 0.0

Source: Bloomberg

4.69m/0.60m 78.7 41.3 1.38 - 3.32 31

Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) Free float (%) Shareholders (%) Joseph C. C. Wong Boyu Capital Holdings Ltd. Kanjanapas Sakorn Shariah compliant

57.8 18.2 7.0

Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (HKDm) Reported net profit (HKDm) Recurring net profit (HKDm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Core EPS (HKD) DPS (HKD)

Eugene Mak +852 2103 9202


eugene.mak@hk.oskgroup.com

Dividend Yield (%) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates

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Company Update, 27 June 2013

Malaysian Airline System (MAS MK)


Consumer Cyclical - Airlines Market Cap: USD1,591m

Trading Buy (From Neutral)


Target Price: Price:
Macro

MYR0.43 MYR0.30

Still In a Rough Patch

Risks Growth Value

Malaysia Airlines (MAS MK)


Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)

0.60

110

0.55
0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 350 0.20 300

101
93 84 75 66 58 49 40

0 0 . 2 0 0 We see opportunities to trade in Malaysian Airline System (MAS) shares . 0 given the recent price weakness. The airline continues to post positive 0 operating stats that show that it is on track to a recovery, but we still 0 see embedded risks as the groups depressed yield may dampen Managements turnaround efforts. In view of the 38% potential upside, we upgrade MAS to Trading BUY, with our FV unchanged at MYR0.43.

3 . 3 0 . 2

Positive growth trend continues. MAS May 2013 operating stats showed continuing positive growth, as revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) surged 21.3% y-o-y while available seat kilometers (ASK) jumped 13.9% y-o-y and overall load factor inched up 3.7% y-o-y. We believe the improvements were mainly attributed to the benefits arising from the airlines participation in the oneworld alliance. Macro factors may continue to pressure yield. Although the positive growth in MAS operating numbers reflects Managements turnaround efforts, the group is also experiencing the yield compression now being felt by full-service carriers (FSCs). Many airlines generally price takers by nature - are under mounting pressure to slash airfares to stimulate their load factor and compete with the regions low-cost carriers (LCCs). MAS is no exception, as the national carriers RPK, ASK and load factor growth has been insufficient to offset its shrinking yields. This led to a negative surprise in its 1QFY13 results. A trading opportunity. We are keeping our assumptions for MAS at this juncture. We had earlier trimmed our yield assumption to a conservative 1% growth y-o-y to incorporate a negative macro outlook for the FSCs market. While MAS current share price appears attractive, we would advise investors to remain cautious on potential losses in 2Q, which is a seasonally weak quarter for most airlines. Our MYR0.43 FV provides investors with a potential capital gain of 38%, but with embedded risks. All said, we upgrade MAS to TRADING BUY.

Vol m

250 200 150 100 50

Source: Bloomberg

Aug-12

Dec-12

Feb-13

Jun-12

Apr-13

Oct-12

Avg Turnover (MYR/USD) Cons. Upside (%) Upside (%) 52-wk Price low/high (MYR) Free float (%) Shareholders (%) Khazanah

14.5m/4.73m 29.0 41.0 0.30 - 0.54 85

69.4

Shariah compliant

Forecasts and Valuations Total turnover (MYRm) Reported net profit (MYRm) Recurring net profit (MYRm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Core EPS (MYR) Core P/E (x)

Dec-11 13,873 (2,524) (1,816) (3274.2) (0.54) na (110.5) 0.98 na na 440.8

Dec-12 13,566 (377) (748) (58.8) (0.22) na (45.2) 1.63 na 103 346.1

Dec-13F 14,340 (248) (248) (66.9) (0.01) na (8.2) 0.95 26.9 12 73.4 85.2

Dec-14F 15,192 164 164 na 0.01 31.1 3.0 0.92 5.8 8 87.6 (57.3)

Dec-15F 15,941 541 541 229.8 0.03 9.4 9.3 0.84 3.6 6 90.5 (32.6)

Jerry Lee 603 9207 7622


jerry.lee@rhbgroup.com

Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, RHB estimates

See important disclosures at the end of this report

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