Commodities Daily Report

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Early rains boost kharif sowing by 85% so far
Early monsoon has bolstered kharif sowing with total area under all major crops like paddy increasing by 85% to 250.99 lakh hectares so far, the Agriculture Ministry said today. Sowing of kharif (summer) crops begins with the onset of southwest monsoon from June. So far, the monsoon rainfall has been 37% excess in the country. According to the data released by the Agriculture Ministry, "Sowing of kharif crops has picked up in the last week. The total sown area as on June 28, as per reports received from states, stands at 250.99 lakh hectares as compared to 135.87 lakh hectares at this time last year." (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19396 5842 59.53 96.56 1223.8

2.75 2.81 -1.10 -0.50 1.02

3.31 3.08 0.44 3.06 -5.25

-3.79 -4.40 6.09 1.63 -11.26

14.16 13.46 4.77 24.29 -21.03

.Source: Reuters

Western EU maize crops hit by rainy, cool weather

Western European maize (corn) crops have suffered from repeated rain and low temperatures, prompting growers to scale back estimates and leading to delays that could further hit yields later in the season. Aboveaverage rainfall and cool weather have led to delays in growth of plants, estimated at an average of two weeks in France and at three weeks in the large producing southwestern region. Current difficulties in many regions mean that 50,000 hectares in the country remain to be sown, and they will be hardly sowable. (Source: Reuters)

US Cotton acres climb, soybeans could set record

USDA is estimating record U.S. soybean plantings for 2013 and the highest acreage for corn in 77 years. The estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17 percent from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. In its June 28 Acreage report, USDA estimated cotton planted area for 2013 at 10.3 million acres, 17 percent below last year. Upland area is estimated at 10 million acres, also down 17 percent from 2012. American Pima area is estimated at 226,000 acres, down 5 percent from 2012. Estimated cotton acres are up from USDAs March 28 Prospective Plantings report, which indicated growers intended to plant 10 million acres, 19 percent below last year. (Source: Google News)

Indian corn seen down on good progress of sowing

Corn futures in India are expected to fall next week as the good progress of sowing due to ample rains and higher moisture content in supplies coming into the market are seen aiding the downside. Farmers in India have started planting the new crop at a brisk pace in major cultivating areas, helped by a good monsoon so far. Rains were 3 percent above average in the week that ended on June 26, data from the weather office showed on Thursday. They were 54 percent above the average in the sub-continent for the first three weeks from June 1. Maize is cultivated during both summer and winter in India, which is Asia's largest exporter of the grain, with the major contribution coming from the summer crop. (Source: Reuters)

Wheat procurement lower by one-third so far this market year

Wheat procurement has declined by 33 per cent to 25.08 million tonnes so far in the 2013-14 marketing year starting April mainly due to lower arrival of wheat in the mandies with aggressive buying by private traders. Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for procurement and distribution of foodgrains, and state agencies had procured 37.35 million tonnes in the year-ago period. (Source: Economic Times)

Govt to reimburse Rs 719 cr to CCI for MSP buying

The government on Friday decided to reimburse Rs 719.4 crore to the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) for losses incurred while buying the fibre at the minimum support price (MSP) in the cotton season 2012-13. The decision was taken by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) said. It said CCI would be conducting domestic and export sales and the apportionment of these sales would be decided by an interministerial committee consisting of representatives of the ministries of agriculture, commerce, textiles and the department of revenue, to strike an appropriate balance between interests of domestic users and producers. (Source: Business Standard)

Rice Exports From India May Fall on Vietnam, Pakistan Sales

Rice exports from India, the worlds second-largest grower, may decline this year from a record as buyers turn to cheaper supplies from Vietnam and Pakistan, according to a traders group. Shipments may fall 6 percent to 9.5 million metric tons in the year that started in April from 10.1 million tons a year earlier, said Vijay Setia, a former president and member of the All India Rice Exporters Association. Exports of nonbasmati rice are estimated to drop 15 percent to 5.5 million tons, while overseas sales of aromatic basmati variety are set to jump 14 percent to 4 million tons, he said. Indias government raised the minimum price it pays to growers to a record last year, making supplies from the country more expensive amid a global glut. Thailands plan to sell grain from state stockpiles may further depress prices, which are set for a second quarterly advance. (Source: Bloomberg)

Minimum support price of kharif crops raised by CCEA

As sowing picks up across the country, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on Thursday approved increasing the minimum support prices (MSP) of kharif crops for 2013-14 crop year (July-June). The increase is expected to boost the sowing of paddy, cotton, oilseeds like soybean, millets and pulses crop in the country. On the basis of recommendations given by Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), the MSP is increased. However, the agriculture ministry changed the proposal for bajra and tur/arhar. The agriculture minister's recommendation has been accepted by the CCEA. (Source: Economic Times)

Onion surges as farmers hold on to stocks

Onion prices rose above Rs 1,500 a quintal this week as farmers are releasing their produce slowly in the market. Farmers are bringing only limited quantity to the market. But the kharif crop could be higher, said R.P. Gupta, Director of National Horticulture Research and Development Foundation. Prices are up because the crop this year is at least 40 per cent lower compared with last year. This is due to drought in key growing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, said C.B. Holkar, Vice-President of the National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation. (Source:
Business Line)

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures continued to decline on yesterday touching a new contract low of ` 3052 and settled 0.42% lower due to comfortable supplies to meet stockists demand. However, Chana prices are sustaining above their MSP levels since past two weeks. Despite of good demand at such lower levels, upside in the prices is capped on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 10.52 lakh hectares have th been covered as on 28 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 28, 2013 % change Last 3082 3084 Prev day -0.79 -0.42 WoW -3.93 -5.11 MoM -5.03 -2.53
Source: Reuters

YoY -30.28 -28.71

Spread Matrix
Closing 3082.25 3084 3158 3225 19-Jul-13 1.75 0 -

as on June 28, 2013 20-Aug-13 75.75 74 0 20-Sep-13 142.75 141 67 0 as on June 27, 2013 Stocks as on 26th June 79318 47690 10885 137893 Qty in Process 884 2156 339 3379

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 27th June 79759 50373 10885 141017 Qty in Process 703 1012 339 2054

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX July contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to decline as good rains thereby, prospects of better kharif sowing may pressurize prices. However, an increase in the MSP of kharif pulses may support prices at lower levels. Good demand at lower levels coupled with declining arrivals may also support the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana July Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for June 29, 2013 Resistance 3103-3125

3035-3055

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean continued to witness downside pressure yesterday tracking the sowing progress of soybean. A sharp appreciation in the Rupee also added to the downside pressure. However, higher international prices limited the downside in the domestic prices. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.38% and 0.43% lower respectively on Friday. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long side in July th contract wef. 27 June, 2013. Two major soybean growing states MP and Maharashtra have received above normal rains so far in June. Thus, good monsoon and higher prices earned last year is expected to aid sowing this season. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 60.69 lk ha against 11.82 lk ha last year. Soybean in MP, and Maharashtra was planted on 29.74 and 8.26 lk ha, sharply higher against 2.75 and 2.58 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean traded on a positive note and settled 1.03% higher on Friday as the USDA reported soybean stocks at 434.5 mn bushels, a nine year low. However, the new crop far month contracts continued to decline as the USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks.

Market Highlights

as on June 28, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.38 -7.26 -0.43 1.03 -0.19 -1.02 -6.71 4.77 -1.86 -4.08

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3690 3621 1565 3448 3385

MoM -5.87 -5.48 3.66 -1.86 -1.5

YoY -4.30 -7.93 6.72 -13.3 -14.86

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3690 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3620.5 3164.5 3181.5 0 -456 0 19-Jul-13 -69.5 18-Oct-13 -525.5

as on June 28, 2013 20-Nov-13 -508.5 -439 17 0 as on June28, 2013 20-Aug-13 -14.55 48 0 20-Sep-13 28.45 91 43 0 as on June 27, 2013 Qty in Process 40 0 0 40 as on June 27, 2013 Qty in Process 30 91 100 0 1600 200 10 2013 NCDEX July contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3447.55 3385 3433 3476 19-Jul-13 -62.55 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 26th June 20014 1285 401 21700 Stocks as on 26th June 3040 4155 20389 634 59456 5023 1670 94367 Qty in Process 100 0 0 100 Qty in Process 0 314 50 0 1660 150 0 2174 Stocks as on 25th June 20135 2491 401 23027 Stocks as on 25th June 3010 4101 20288 634 58972 4932 1660 93600

Outlook
Soybean prices may recover from lower levels on account of short coverings coupled with higher international prices. However, the overall trend remains on the downside as higher sowing and above normal monsoon estimates may pressurize prices. Rupee appreciation may also pressurize prices. An increase in the MSP coupled with tight supplies in the domestic as well as US markets may support prices.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed July futures continued to decline yesterday and settled 1.02% lower on Friday amidst higher supplies. Spillover effect from other oilseeds is also seen on the mustard prices. Although Prices gained last week due to lower level demand but, comfortable supplies in Rajasthan, the largest producing belt again pressurized prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Although overall trend in mustard remain weak on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets, prices may remain find support at lower arrivals tracking an increase in the MSP of kharif oilseeds.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX July Futures RM Seed NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 29, 2013 Support 3568-3595 3340-3360 Resistance 3653-3680 3405-3430
Source: Telequote

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refined soy oil July futures continued to decline on account of an appreciation in the Rupee. The spot as well as the July futures settled 0.55% and 1.21% lower on Friday. Prices that gained significantly in the past one month on the back of weak rupee and Ramazan demand, declined in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 689.20 671.15 46.42 2337 503.20 Prev day -0.55 -1.21 0.04 -0.47 -0.36

as on June 28, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia June '13 Fut CPO-MCX- June '13 Futures

WoW -3.59 -3.93 -3.33 -3.87 -1.02

MoM -5.17 -5.66 -6.30 -1.48 4.96

YoY -8.20 -11.97 -8.84 -21.66 -11.21

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 689.2 671.15 662.95 657.9 19-Jul-13 -18.05 0 20-Aug-13 -26.25 -8.2 0 -

as on June 28, 2013 20-Sep-13 -31.3 -13.25 -5.05 0 as on June 28, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade lower on account of appreciation in the Rupee. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

Crude Palm Oil

CPO traded on mixed note yesterday and settled 0.36% lower. An increase in the export tax in Indonesia supported prices while an appreciation in the Rupee pressurized prices. KLCE palm oil futures declined 0.47% yesterday on credit concerns in China. However, strong export data and weak Ringgit capped the losses. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil between June 1-25 were reported at 1,167,266 tn, up by 9.6% compared to 1,064,925 tn between May 125 as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

CPO Spread Matrix

29-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 Closing 503.2 498.5 499.8 29-Jun-13 0 31-Jul-13 -4.7 0 -

31-Aug-13 -3.4 1.3 0 NCDEX July contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO prices may trade on a mixed note as Rupee appreciation may pressurize prices while increase in export tax may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil July NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for June 29, 2013 Support 662-667 490-495 Resistance 677-683 503-507

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After futures corrected yesterday on account of recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.13% higher on Thursday. Prices have gained over the last few sessions on account of good overseas as well as local demand. However, good arrivals have capped sharp gains. Currently, about 65-70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,550 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13661 13290 5715 5808 Prev day -0.35 -0.97 -1.77 -4.00

as on June 28, 2013 % Change WoW 0.82 -1.65 2.36 1.47 MoM 0.80 2.35 -4.37 -0.62 YoY -2.36 -3.24 54.92 37.57

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13660.5 13290 13602.5 13892.5 19-Jul-13 -370.5 0 20-Aug-13 -58 312.5 0 -

as on June 28, 2013 20-Sep-13 232 602.5 290 0 as on June 28, 2013 19-Jul-13 93 0 20-Aug-13 187 94 0 20-Sep-13 277 184 90 0 as on June 27, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 26th June Process 1037 7390 8427 5071 NCDEX July contract 42 87 129 199

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 14,000 bags on Friday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5715 5808 5902 5992

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera prices may trade on a mixed note. Good overseas demand may support prices. However, good supplies may cap the upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 27th June 1073 7390 8463 5229 Qty in Process 33 189 222 40

Turmeric
After declined sharply hitting the lower circuit yesterday on account of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing of the crop. Good progress of the monsoon also pressurized prices. Prices gained earlier this week due to good quality arrivals in the spot markets. Also, fresh export enquiries as well as lower arrivals have supported the prices. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices may trade on a mixed note. Lower arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries may support prices. However, huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX July contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX July Futures Turmeric NCDEX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for June 29, 2013

Support 13010-13140 5610-5700 Resistance 13400-13530 5910-6030
Source: Telequote

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar declined sharply yesterday and settled 0.96% lower on Friday due to huge supplies coupled with good monsoon progress. Also, the government said it not will consider increase in the import duty until September 2013. However, output concerns on the back of drought conditions last year have supported prices at lower levels. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2991 `/qtl 502.3 $/tonne 364.00 $/tonne -0.55 -1.08 -0.96 Last 3064

as on June 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.25 0.17 -1.71 1.17 -2.15 MoM 0.21 -0.63 5.39 -2.03 YoY 2.69 3.14 -16.17 -22.77

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3063.85 2991 3043 3093 19-Jul-13 -72.85 0 20-Aug-13 -20.85 52 0 -

as on June 28, 2013 20-Sep-13 29.15 102 50 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October-April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 27th June 2198 7600 1022 1228 12048 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400 Stocks as on 26th June 2198 7637 1022 1228 12085

as on June 27, 2013 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe Sugar as well as ICE Sugar futures settled 1.08% and 0.55% lower on Friday on the back of huge deliveries for the July expiry. Prices gained earlier this week as heavy rains in Brazil halted harvesting. Reports of continued showers this week may delay the crushing further. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may trade on a mixed note today. Prices may continue to decline as good rains in the cane growing regions as well as the government not increasing import duties may keep prices under check. However, Ramadan demand coupled with output concerns this season may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar July NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for June 27, 2013 Support 2965-2978 Resistance 3006-3023

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Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton declined yesterday on account of a sharp appreciation in the Rupee and settled 1.67% and 0.82% lower on Friday. Higher cotton planting this season along with good monsoon also pressurized prices. However, tight supplies coupled with demand from the yarn industry have supported prices at lower levels. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1060.5 19280 82.71 91.3

as on June 28, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.67 -1.90 -0.82 -0.46 -0.51 -2.87 0.22 -1.14 MoM YoY -1.90 #N/A 6.05 20.05 1.58 17.65 1.33 13.70
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton June Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19280 19600 20150 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 28, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 320 0 870 550 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 55.76 lakh ha as against 31.38 lakh ha during the same period last year. Plating is almost complete in North India and sowing in Punjab and Haryana declined marginally. Sowing in the rain fed areas of Southern India has also commenced. Sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh as well as Karnataka. Planting in Gujarat is yet to gain momentum.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Stocks as on 26th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 27, 2013

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Stocks as on 25rd June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton futures continued to decline on limited buying by the mills. However, prices recovered from lower levels as USDA issued a lower than expected forecast for acreage. Concerns over the economic health of China, the world's top textile market have pressurized prices. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices. A U.S. crop report released this week showed continued delays for new cotton crop, adding to a sense of tightness in upcoming U.S. supplies.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton may decline tracing higher planting figures and strong Rupee. However, fresh export enquiries for cotton and yarn may support prices at lower levels. Higher MSP may also support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for June 29, 2013 Support 1032-1045 19370-19490 Resistance 1070-1085 19750-19870
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Saturday| June 29, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures declined sharply yesterday hitting the 4% lower circuit filter due to improvement in the sowing of the guar crop. However, slack supplies as farmers held back stocks on hopes of better prices limited sharp fall in the prices. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6700 `/qtl 19523 `/qtl 19350 `/qtl -3.97 -5.32 -3.87 Last Prev day 6889 -4.77

as on June 28, 2013 % change WoW -11.68 -9.83 -12.00 -10.83 MoM -21.09 -19.95 -25.03 -24.56 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 6889.3 6700 5600 5490 19-Jul-13 -189.3 0 -

as on June 28, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1289.3 -1100 0 20-Sep-13 -1399.3 -1210 -110 0 as on June 28, 2013 20-Aug-13 -2852.8 -2680 0 20-Sep-13 -3322.8 -3150 -470 0 as on June 27, 2013 Stocks as on 26thJune 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 19522.8 19350 16670 16200 19-Jul-13 -172.8 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 27th June 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX July contract

Outlook
Guar prices may continue to decline today as Supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand which may exert downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, a prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum Technical Outlook

Contract Guar Seed July (NCDEX) Guar Seed July (MCX) Guar Gum July (NCDEX) Guar Gum July(MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl valid for June 29, 2013 Support 6530-6610 6550-6620 19070-19210 19100-19230 Resistance 6810-6900 6830-6920 19550-19730 19560-19750

NCDEX July contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com