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OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER MINISTRY OF STATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERN KENYA AND OTHER ARID AREAS

NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY LAIKIPIA COUNTY

DROUGHT MONTHLY BULLETIN FOR MARCH 2013

Livelihood Zone Alert Pastoral all species Agro pastoral Alert Mixed farming Marginal mixed farming

Warning stage Alarm Alarm Normal Normal

Trend Deteriorating Deteriorating Stable Stable

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

Situation Overview The onset of the long rains season in the county was reported by the fourth week of March as by the third week there was no rainfall. The month under review was hence characterized by sunny dry weather conditions with just a few showers in some regions bordering the Nyeri County. Though the water levels in the county were declining, the main sources of water during the month remained to be the Natural Rivers, pans and dams, boreholes, shallow wells, traditional river wells and springs. The month recorded reduced activities at the boreholes and increased activities at the shallow wells and springs. Water accessibility and availability both for household and livestock remained to be fair due to the continued dry spell. Lack of water for livestock increased by 4% due to depletion of the same as the number of livestock increased. With the dry spell continuing in the County, pasture and forage situation is fair tending to poor. The County recorded deteriorating pasture due to poor precipitation during the month under review. The fair tending to poor body conditions of livestock can be attributed to inadequate pasture. The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestock from the neighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture in the grazing fields which could trigger out migration of livestock to the Mt. Kenya region. Body condition for the shoats was stable and good as they browsed. The average distances to grazing areas remained stable as livestocks were retained in the grazing fields. The average distances to water sources by households also remained stable during the month under review. In the County, no constraints to water access were recorded during the month. The month under review is still recording persistently high above average and stable food prices which continue to limit households capacity to purchase food and consequently impact negatively on their food consumption levels. Availability of cereals and legumes were stable and also readily available in the County but with above normal prices. There was notable increase in the amount of milk produced in bottles during the month under review which can be attributed to increased calving in the County. The major agricultural activities recorded in the county were land preparation and planting of maize, beans and potatoes especially in the MF and MMF livelihood zones. Early planted beans and maize were already germinating in areas of Laikipia East and pockets of Laikipia West owing to the onset of the rains being received. Maize prices at the markets were stable during the month under review. Maize prices at the household level remained stable but were slowly declining as traders sourced for other commodities. Improved access and availability to food across all livelihood zones has impacted positively to the Nutrition status of children under five years of age. No major disease outbreaks were recorded in the county both for humans and livestock. The County recorded increased Calving and kidding but there was decreased lambing during the month under review. Recorded in the sentinel sites. No births were recorded in camels and donkeys. The County recorded an increased average price of cattle by 40%. Sheep and goat prices recorded a slight decline. Poultry recorded increased prices in the month under review. As wildlife encroach the settlement areas in search of food, they are leaving behind a trail of destruction to the crops and conflicts are already being experienced in Withare, Endana and Muruku. The flagged out areas are Mukogondo especially in Iligwesi and Doldol due to influx of livestock, Lamuria especially in Withare due to human wildlife conflicts EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 2

Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG Continued dissemination of weather information and capacity building of communities to prepare appropriately for the March - May 2012 long rains season. The communities living along the valleys, near landslide prone areas and seasonal rivers that are prone to flash floods to be advised of the risks during this season to avoid disasters. (DSG) Reviewing of the districts disaster preparedness risk reduction/contingency plans to be able to counter any disasters that might be caused by the heavy down pour expected during the long rains season.(action; DSG, NDMA) Support communities to enhance their water harvesting techniques especially the surface runoff and roof catchment.(action; DWO) Support to the veterinary department to undertake massive Deworming campaigns of all livestock in the county.(Action DVO/DLPO) Putting in place intervention measures to curb the human wildlife conflicts especially in areas of Withare, Muruku and Endana(Action: KWS) Sensitize communities on importance of tree planting during the long rains season. (action:KFS) Continued supplementary feeding to the under five children and GFD to communities affected by the dry spell. (Action provincial administration) Support farmers with subsidized fertilizers and seeds for use during the LR planting season.(action; DAO) Enhanced disease surveillance and vaccination of livestock diseases.(action DLPO) Promotion of good infant and young child feeding and vitamin A supplementation. (Action DNO). Water treatment (action MoH).

1. Environmental indicators 1.1. Rainfall Amount of rainfall The month of March is normally the expected onset of the long rains season. However, the rains were late and all sentinel sites recorded no rainfall by the third week of March. The onset of the long rains season in the county was reported by the fourth week of March. As per the meteorological weather forecast, the rains were expected by the third week of March. The month under review was hence characterized by sunny dry weather conditions with just a few showers in some regions bordering the Nyeri county. The showers realized during the month were below normal average.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

Courtesy of DAO laikipia West Temporal / Spatial distribution. The showers received in pockets of the county were poorly distributed in both time and space. 1.2 conditions of natural vegetation and pastures. Quality and quantity With the dry spell continuing in the county, Pasture and forage situation is fair tending to poor. All sentinel sites recorded deteriorating pasture due to poor precipitation during the month under review. Pasture quantity and quality was deteriorating at a high rate, which will negatively influence livestock activities if the long rains season is not on time. Pasture constraints were recorded in the pastoral, which had declined, by 0.25% compared to the previous month. Pasture is not adequate as can be attributed by the fair tending to poor body conditions of livestock. The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestock from the neighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture in the grazing fields, which could trigger out migration of livestock to the Mt. Kenya region. Body condition for the shoats was stable and good as they browsed. However, the conditions could be reversed if the onset of the long rains is timely. Current pastures consist of dried failed crop residues salvaged during the short rains season, maize stovers and wheat straws especially in areas next to the wheat fields. Baled Rhodes grass is also available for sales at an average price of between Kshs 150 to Kshs 200. The current forage can sustain the county for the next one month. These will mean that livestock will be stable as the region waits for the long rains season.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

The pastoral areas received rainfall of 0.10mm, 6.77mm and 60.06mm in the first, second and third dekad respectively. Rainfall received in the first and second dekad were lower compared to the LTA of 18.87mm and 16.29mm. The third dekad received rainfall amounting to 60.06mm which was much higher compared to the LTA of 20.42mm.

The MMF areas received rainfall of 1.24mm, 7.31mm and 56.52mm in the first, second and third dekad respectively. Rainfall received in the first and second dekad was lower EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 5

than the LTA of 12.45mm, 15.91mm but rainfall for the third dekad was much higher compared to the LTA of 19.01mm. 1.3 water sources and availability Water sources. Though the water levels in the county were declining, the main sources of water during the month remained to be the Natural Rivers, pans and dams, boreholes, shallow wells, traditional river wells and springs. The month recorded reduced activities at the boreholes and increased activities at the shallow wells and springs. Areas such as Endana, kimakandura, Matanya and Umande heavily relied on natural rivers. Withare also utilized natural rivers while heavily relying on boreholes. Kimanjo and olmoran relied on boreholes. Iligwesi and Mwenje relied on shallow wells. The main source of water for Shauri, Ndurumo and muruku were pans and dams. Springs were the main source of water in Shauri. Those using the natural rivers remained stable during the month. Boreholes usage decreased by 0.1% that could be attributed to the cost incurred, hence most preferring the shallow wells and the springs. The current distances for the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming are within the normal threshold of 4 km, 3 km and 1 km respectively. Household access to water. The average distances to water sources by households also remained stable during the month under review. A highest of 2.5km was recorded in the MMF areas while a lowest of 0.6km was recorded in the MF areas. No constraints to water access were recorded during the month in all the sentinel sites. House hold water accessibility and availability both for household and livestock remained good but still on a declining trend. Surface water structures dried up in some areas as the dry spell continued. Rivers flows recorded declined flows even some recording below base flows. Seasonal rivers dried up leaving dry valleys. The situation is expected to reverse as the long rains season sets in. Water quality remained good in the county apart from those areas where there was a shared common water point between livestock and those drawing water from the same point. Livestock access to water. The average distances to grazing areas remained stable as livestocks were retained in the grazing fields. The average grazing distance to water sources was at 1.8km with a highest of 3.1km being recorded in the MMF areas and a lowest of 0.6 being recorded in MF livelihood zones. However, with the dwindling water sources and influx of livestock from the neighboring counties, the situation is expected to worsen. Only the timely onset of the long rains season could reverse the trend. A highest average distance from the grazing fields to watering points of 4.4km was recorded in Withare attributed to the distances to boreholes while a lowest of 0.4km in iligwesi as livestock utilized the shallow wells and traditional river wells. The situation is normal at this time of the year. 1.4 Emerging issues. 1.4.1 Insecurity / conflict / human displacement.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

As wildlife encroach the settlement areas in search of food, they are leaving behind a trail of destruction to the crops and conflicts are already being experienced in Withare, Endana and Muruku. Water and pasture scarcity is already being experienced in the pastoral areas of Mukogondo due to the influx of livestock from within the county and from the neighboring county of Isiolo.

1.4.2 Migration. Livestock that had migrated in areas of Mukogodo are still in the region. A few have started going back to the sides of Jua kali and Isiolo.

1.4.3 Other factors likely to affect the livelihoods. Presently there are no emerging issues in the county that could affect the livelihoods. 1.5 Implications on food security Over abstraction in these rivers serving the county could lead to water resource based conflicts especially in areas experiencing water shortages mostly affecting the livestock keepers down stream. The pasture and water situation especially in the pastoral areas is already over stretched owing to the number of livestock that have migrated into these regions. These could lead to resource-based conflicts. Marauding elephants and antelopes are hindering agricultural activities in the areas of Withare, Shauri, Endana and Muruku as farmers prepare their land for planting. Land under production has drastically been reduced which could lead low food production. Rural indicators (food Availability) 2.1 Livestock production. Livestock body condition Pasture is not adequate as can be attributed by the fair tending to poor body conditions of livestock. The long migration of animals within the county and in migration of livestock from the neighboring county of Isiolo could further speed up the depletion of pasture in the grazing fields hence worsening body conditions. Body condition for the shoats was stable and good as they browsed. However, the conditions could be reversed if the onset of the long rains is timely. The livestock body condition for all livestock species in mixed farming livelihood zone is fair tending to poor and further expected to worsen as pasture, fodder and crop residues are deteriorating in quality, while agro-pastoral and pastoral zones the body condition is also fair and expected to start decline as pastures quantity and quality deteriorates. The same is true for pastoral pockets where livestocks are competing for the available pasture even with wild animals. The situation is normal for this time of the year as the dry weather progresses as we wait for the long rains season when pasture and forage is usually poor. 2.1.2 Livestock diseases. Unconfirmed cases of FMD were reported in the pastoral areas of Mukogodo. No major disease outbreaks were notable in the county apart from the endemic ones at this time of the year. Livestock disease incidences across livelihood zones were normal. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 7

2.1.3 Milk production. There was notable increase in the amount of milk produced in bottles during the month under review, which can be attributed to increased calving in the county. Milk production increased by 0.04%, consumption increased by 0.04% while sales also recorded an increase of 0.03%. Milk production in bottles increased from 578 bottles to 601 bottles. Consumption increased from 261 bottles to 325 bottles. The highest milk production was recorded in Shauri at 142 bottles with a lowest of 2 was recorded in Endana which could be attributed to migration of livestock from the area due to water and pasture depletion. All the milk produced Endana, Iligwesi, kimakandura and Kimanjo was consumed at the house hold level as an alternative source of protein.

2.2 crop production. 2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities. The major agricultural activities recorded in the county were land preparation and planting of maize, beans and potatoes especially in the MF and MMF livelihood zones. Early planted beans and maize were already germinating in areas of Laikipia East and pockets of Laikipia West owing to the onset of the rains being received by the end of the month. Due to time factor (planting season), lack of tractors and laborers, a number of farmers especially in Laikipia West adopted conservational agriculture which requires minimal tillage or zero tillage. Crops under irrigation were at different stages but with minimal activities as the water levels were also low and further aggravated by abstraction by the upper users.

2.2.2 Pest and diseases. Owing to the fact that only a few crops are germinating, there was no major crop diseases and pests reported in the County. Routine disease and pest control is in progress in the MMF and MF areas where horticultural is practiced.

2.2.3. Harvest. Only a few horticultural crops are being harvested in piecemeal especially in the MMF and MF livelihood zones depending on when they were planted. Such were the tomatoes, onions, carrots and cabbages which are mainly irrigated crops. 2.2.4 Implications on food security Continuous availability of horticultural crops is positively contributing to the availability of dietary diversification at the household level hence improving the nutrition status. Increase in milk production has impacted positively as an alternative source of protein while increased sales will increase the purchasing power of the farmers.

Access to Food 3.1 livestock market 3.1.1 Cattle prices

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

Source:NDMA sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds Comparison of Cattle prices for Shauri and Kimakandura at the household level in March 2013

Shauri cattle Kshs 27,500.00

Kimakandura cattle Kshs 11,250.00

The sentinel sites recorded an increased average price of cattle by 40% from Kshs 14,750.00 to Kshs 20,983.34 which could be attributed to stable body condition. Compared to the long term average in 2008-2012 of Kshs 12,800.00 for the same Month, the current prices are much better. A highest sale price of Ksh 27,500.00 was recorded in Shauri where crop residues are still available, proximity to the markets accounting for the good prices while a lowest of Kshs 11,250.00 was recorded in kimakandura which could be attributed to the size of the cattle and deteriorating body condition. 3.1.2 Goat prices

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds Goats prices remained stable only recording a marginal decline of 0.01% from Kshs 3,246.8 to Kshs 3,220.05. These can be attributed to their good body condition and availability of pasture for browsers. The highest goat price was recorded in Kimanjo at Kshs 4,075.00 while a lowest price of Kshs 1,200.00 was recorded at Muruku. Compared to the LTAs of 2008-2011 the present prices are much higher.

Sheep prices remained stable during the month under review though recording a slight decline of 0.3% from Kshs 3790.8 to Kshs 3,691.62. This could be attributed to good body condition brought about by availability of pasture for browsers. The present state can only be sustained if the long rains are on time to precipitate the regeneration of pasture which is depleting at a high rate. The present price is much better than the long term average of Kshs1, 220.00 at the same time of the month. The highest selling price was recorded in Withare at Kshs4, 727.3 while a lowest price of Kshs 2,300.00 was recorded in Muruku. Poultry recorded increased prices by 0.1% from Kshs 354.93 to Kshs 383.66. The highest selling price of Kshs 451.5 was recorded in Kimanjo while a lowest price of Kshs 300.00 was recorded in Kimakandura.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

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3.2. Livestock sales. There was a significant increase in the livestock sales in the sentinel sites during the month under review. 12 cattle were recorded as having been sold in the sentinel sites compared to last months 4. MMF zones recorded sales of 5, ranching 3, formal employment 2 while the pastoral areas and MF recorded 1 each. Goat sales also increased during the month under review. A total of 53 goats were sold compared to 41 the previous month. MMF recorded sales of 23, MF 2, pastoral 22, ranching areas 1while no sales were recorded in the formal employment. Sheep sales also recorded a slight increase from 61 to 69. MMF recorded sales of 29, Pastoral 11, formal employment 7, ranching recorded a sales of 17 and MF a sales of 5. No sale of camel and donkeys was recorded in the month under review. Poultry sales were stable with only a slight increase from 45 to 48. MMF zones recorded sales of 11, pastoral areas 19, MF zones recorded sales of 10, ranching areas recorded sales of 3 and formal employment livelihood zones recorded sales of 5. 3.3 crop prices 3.3.1 Maize

Source:NDMA sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds Maize prices at the markets were stable during the month at Kshs 35.04 though a slight decline from the previous months Kshs 35.28. Maize prices at the household decreased by 0.04% from Kshs 24.3 to Kshs 23.19 as farmers withheld their produce to try and bargain better prices from the traders while others wanted to use them as seeds. A highest market price of Kshs 50 was recorded in Withare and Kimanjo, which could be attributed to scarcity of the same in the locality and the markets. A lowest of Kshs 20 was recorded at Ndurumo.

3.4 Crop prices 3.4.1 Maize The spillover of the long rains harvest of maize and the additional from the short rains harvest has generally stabilized the maize prices in the county. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 11

Maize prices at the farm gate recorded a slight decline of 0.04% from Kshs 24.3 to Kshs 23.19 while at the markets they were stable at an average of Kshs 35.04. A highest of Kshs 25.5 was recorded in Umande while a lowest of Kshs 22.08 was recorded at Muruku. The present prices are better than the long term averages of 2008-2012 which were at Kshs 30.00

3.4.2 Posho

Source:NDMA sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds The Posho prices were stable during the month under review only recording a slight decline of 0.03 % retailing at Kshs 41.14 from Kshs 42.28 the previous month. These could be attributed to the stable maize prices. A highest of Kshs 52.2 was recorded in Iligwesi (pastoral) which could be attributed to the cost of transportation due to the poor road network to the area while a lowest of Kshs 30 was recorded in Muruku (MMF) due to availability of alternative foods especially the irrigated crops.

3.5 Income 3.5.1 Crop income There was a notable decrease in sale of crop products as recorded during the month. These is evident due to lack of the same at the house hold level and also farmers withholding to utilize them as seeds during the planting season Income from crops decreased by 50% from 35 to 16. Sales were only recorded in MMF and MF zones. Other livelihoods recorded no income from sales of crops. 3.5.2. Livestock income Income from livestock sales increased by 0.08% from 50 to 54. A total of 182 species of livestocks were sold during the month compared to 151 sold during the previous month. EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 12

Income from sale of livestock products remained stable during the month only recording a slight decline of 0.1% from 26 to 23.

3.5.3 Other income (trade and wages) Income from Casual labour increased by 20% during the month under review at 136 compared to last months 118 persons in the sentinel sites with MMF recording a highest of 89 as demand for land preparation and planting increased. Though the same activities are being undertaken in the MF areas, use of machinery is scaling down those needed for the same. The number of people under formal employment remained stable with a slight decline from 51 to 49. With the increase in the number of casual laborers, so did the increase in the daily wage. The average daily payment for casual laborers increased by 12% from Kshs 208 to Kshs232.8. MF recorded the highest payment of Kshs 296 while a lowest of Kshs 182 was recorded in the MMF. This is dictated by the number of hours worked per day. Income from petty trade reduced by 11% as a majority of the persons engaged in planting activities. Charcoal burning recorded a decline of 15% as most of those involved in the activity undertook to land preparation and planting. Main sources of income for the month of March 2013 in Laikipia County.

3.5.4

Cereal: meat price ratio Terms of trade for households were stable during the month under review. There was a notable increase in the prices of shoats to Kshs 134.7 from Kshs 133.63 the previous month. Maize prices and posho had slight variations. Maize and posho only had a slight variation from Kshs 38.78 to Kshs38.09. Presently the terms of trade for the pastoralists were on an improving trend. A kilo of meat is able to purchase 3.54kgs of cereal compared to last months 3.45 kg of cereal. Hence a normal shoat of 15kg costing an average of Kshs 2020.5 compared to last months Kshs 2004.5 can only be able to purchase 53.05kgs compared to last months 51.7kgs of posho.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

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Households were selling up to 1.7 shoats of 15kg to purchase a 90 kilograms bag of posho compared to the 5 year average of 1 shoat across the livelihood zones in Laikipia county, terms of trade were still below the long term averages but on an improving trend.

4.0 Welfare 4.1. Nutrition status.

sample sites. Total size sampled (n) 360 house holds Improved access and availability to food across all livelihood zones has impacted positively to the Nutrition status of children less than five years of age. The month recorded an improved trend of 10% from 5.96 percent during the previous month to 5.54% during the month under review. The number of children measured during the month under review was 1661 which is an increase from the previous month whereby 1606 children had been measured. The malnutrition level is better compared to the long term average in 2008-2012 of 9.8 percent at the same time of the month. The number of children with <135 MUAC decreased to 77compared to the previous months 85. Pastoral areas of Iligwesi still recorded the highest cases of children with < 135 MUAC readings at 33 while kimanjo, Matanya and Withare recorded none.

Comparison of < 135mm MUAC reading for Mukogodo (Iligwesi), Withare, Matanya and Kimanjo.

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

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None in Kimanjo

33 children <135mm MUAC in Iligwesi

None in Withare

None in Matanya

4.2 Health There were no reported cases of disease out breaks apart from the common colds and flu, upper respiratory diseases in the county. These are the only observable diseases in the communities of which its a common phenomenon at this time of the year. 4.3 Flagged out areas The flagged out areas are Mukogodo especially in Iligwesi and Doldol due to influx of livestock and Lamuria especially in Withare due to human wildlife conflicts.

5.0 Current intervention measures and coping strategies 5.1 Construction of 2 No. classrooms at Musul primary school funded by the MDONK&OAL- awaiting handing over of the cheque to the SMC to start construction. 5.2 Construction of Mwakinya dam is ongoing which is funded by DMI 5.2 Food aid There was no general food distribution in the month of March. Coping strategies No severe coping strategies have been employed by house holds in the county as terms of trade are still stable. Some of the strategies being employed include borrowing on credit casual labor and charcoal burning.

5.3

6.0 Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG Recommendations to the DSG and KFSSG Continued dissemination of weather information and capacity building of communities to prepare appropriately for the March - May 2012 long rains season. The communities living along the valleys, near landslide prone areas and seasonal rivers that are prone to flash floods to be advised of the risks during this season to avoid disasters. (DSG) EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY 15

Reviewing of the districts disaster preparedness risk reduction/contingency plans to be able to counter any disasters that might be caused by the heavy down pour expected during the long rains season.(action; DSG, NDMA) Support communities to enhance their water harvesting techniques especially the surface runoff and roof catchment.(action; DWO) Support to the veterinary department to undertake massive Deworming campaigns of all livestock in the county.(Action DVO/DLPO) Putting in place intervention measures to curb the human wildlife conflicts especially in areas of Withare, Muruku and Endana(Action: KWS) Sensitize communities on importance of tree planting during the long rains season. (action:KFS) Continued supplementary feeding to the under five children and GFD to communities affected by the dry spell. (Action provincial administration) Support farmers with subsidized fertilizers and seeds for use during the LR planting season.(action; DAO) Enhanced disease surveillance and vaccination of livestock diseases.(action DLPO) Promotion of good infant and young child feeding and vitamin A supplementation. (Action DNO). Water treatment (action MoH).

EARLY WARNING BULLETIN, MARCH 2013/LAIKIPIA COUNTY

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