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THE WEEK GONE BY AND THE WEEK AHEAD .
28 June, 2013
The debate remains open on whether markets reacted rather too violently to the FOMC announcement relating to QE tapering. That the yields and risk spreads were far too low in the US two months ago cannot be disputed. But the sharp fall in US 10y Treasuries to 2.55%+ and a sharp fall in EM assets and currencies may clearly be an over-reaction by the markets considering they did not probably expect such a hawkish tone from the FED.
A weaker GDP Print in the US at 1.8% against 2.4% expected, rising mortgage rates that will slowdown growth further and various other indicators including inflation point to a serious difference between fundamentals and the market reaction to FOMC. We believe that regardless of QE tapering. Fed Funds will remain depressed at current levels at least until 2015, inflation will remain benign and economic conditions will remain weak for a lot longer than expected for now.
Home prices, boosted by lack of supply and perhaps a sense of urgency if not panic among buyers, are shooting
straight up. Case-Shiller's adjusted month-to-month gain for its 20-city index is up 1.7 percent in April alone and follows a 1.9 percent jump in March. The year-on-year rate is exceptionally strong, at plus 12.0 percent. Gains are sweeping across all cities without exception with strength centered out West where monthly gains are nearing 3 percent with year-on-year gains reaching 20 percent.
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The Eurozone M3 Money Supply increased 2.9% in the three months to May, following a 2.9% rise in the three months to April, according to the ECB official data. On an annual basis M3 Money supply grew 2.9% in May, down from the 3.2% rise registered the previous month, as projected. Year-over-year Private loans fell 1.1%, after dropping 0.9%, below expectations of -1.1%. The Eurozone M3 Money Supply increased 2.9% in the three months to May, following a 2.9% rise in the three months to April, according to the ECB official data. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has improved by 1.8 points in both the euro area (to 91.3) and the EU (to 92.6) in June. The increase was due to an improved sentiment among consumers and managers in all business sectors except for services. Moreover, the Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased by 0.07 points to -0.68. All the five largest euro area economies saw sentiment improving, namely Spain (+2.5), Italy (+1.7), France (+1.3), Germany (+1.1) and the Netherlands (+0.9). Consumer confidence increased (+3.1) and for the seventh consecutive month. Consumers were significantly less pessimistic concerning the future general economic situation. Also their unemployment and savings expectations and their assessment of the future financial situation of their households were less negative.
. Construction confidence improved as well (+1.4), resulting from a less negative assessment of both order books and employment expectations. Also financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) picked up (+0.7), driven by better assessments of the past business situation and demand. However, services confidence remained broadly stable (-0.3). Page 2
07-01-2013
13:30 IST
07-01-2013
14:30IST
HICP Flash
07-01-2013
14:30 IST
07-01-2013
19:30 IST
US
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07-01-2013
19:30 IST
07-02-2013
14:30 IST
PPI (Month over Month) ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (Store Sales - W/W change) Redbook (Store Sales Y/Y change)
07-02-2013 07-02-2013
07-03-2013
14:30 IST
Retail Sales (Year over Year) MBA Purchase Applications (Purchase Index - W/W Change) Challenger Job-Cut Report (Announced Layoffs - Level) ADP Employment Report (ADP employment) International Trade (Trade Balance Level) EIA Petroleum Status Report (Crude oil inventories (weekly change))
07-03-2013
16:30 IST
US
07-03-2013
17:00 IST
US
07-03-2013
17:45 IST
US
07-03-2013
18:00 IST
US
07-03-2013
20:00 IST
07-04-2013
14:30 IST
GDP
07-04-2013 07-05-2013
ECB Announcement (Change) Jobless Claims (New Claims - Level) Employment Situation (Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change) Money Supply (M2 Weekly Change) Fed Balance Sheet (Reserve Bank credit - Weekly Change)
07-05-2013 07-06-2013
US US
07-06-2013
02:00 IST
US
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TECHNICAL VIEW
After opening up around 59.74, rupee weakened to an all-time low of 60.75 during the last week and corrected to 59. 38 at the end of week buoyed by a jump in risk assets across the globe after a weak US GDP number for the last quarter and increasing realization of an over-reaction by markets to FOMC statement There are mixed signals emanating from technical indicators. While medium term (Daily) indicators are strongly bearish, short term (hourly) indicators have turned bullish which clearly point to a strengthening rupee in the short term We expect INR to retrace slowly, amidst high volatility, to 58.50 level in the next few weeks but also suggest that the next 3-6 month payable be covered around an all-in cost of 59 -60 whenever available as the EM currencies and risk sentiment will likely remain under pressure for a while
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