:

www.developmentandtransition.net

NOVEMBER 2005 | issue 2

2005

(
)

175 .
, 3% ,
,
.
1975 2000 .

.
, , ,
15 ,
, ,
.
,
, , ,
, ,
.
, -

.

,

, ,
, .


,
-
. ,

, -
,
.

, ,
,

.

,

.
,
;
,

.
,

,
,
. ,
-

.
,
.
, ,

: ?.................. ....................................

................................................................... ,
...

: -
.................................................................................................................. -.......................

2
3
7

- ..................... .................................. 11
: In statu nasceni.............................. .............................. 12
- :
..................................................................................................... ..... 14
,
..................................................................................................... ................................. 17
: ................................ ......................... 19
:
........................................................ - ............................. 20
contra et pro:

............................ ........................................ 22
- ................................... ................................... 26

:
?

, ,

. -

,
,
.
,
,
-15

, 2004 .
,
, -
.
,
,
,
,
,
.

.
,
.
, (..
) .

,
.
, ,

,
. , ,

.
, ,
, -
,

. ,

(,
, ),
,

.
,
( )
;
. ,

, .

,
( ), (,
)
.
:
( ,
), (
,
, , ,
), (,
).
,

. , , , ,

,
,
.
,
,
,
.
.

,


- .

, ,
,
. ,

,

.


,
.
;

. ,
,
.
, ,

 2005 | 2


.
,
.
,
, ,
,
.

,
,

, ,
. ,

, ,
.

- (Gwenolyn Sasse) -

,

,
. ,
,

.

, aao CCCP coae ,

,
, ,
,

oe .
,
, , , ,

,
.

,
.

, 4,5 5
, 1,5 .
, 1 . , 200-300
. . 250-500 . (
)
. ,
222 .
(2004), 11,8 . (2002).
( , 95%)
, ,
,
.
,
, ,

,
.
,

. ,

. 3 ()

,
,
,
,
,
, , ,
,
, ,
,
, .
, ,

,
,
, ,
.
. 3 (b)
,
() ,
,
,
();

 :
.
, ,
.
, e
, ,

, .

.
2003 . $16,6 , $ 42
, $60 $162
$202 .
(
).
.

,
.
,
:

,
,
,
,
.

, ,
(, ,
,
..), (
) .
,
.
,
: , ,
, ,
, , .2

, 90%
.
10% 50%
.

.3
,
;
,
,
.

. , ,
, ,
(
2000 . 0,2
).

.
,
( ),
: ,
,
. (
, , .)
,

,

,
.

2001 :

,
. ,
,
( , ,

 2005 | 2
, ,
, ,
.) ,
.

. ,
, ,

,

.

,

. o ox ca
.

, .

.

, ,
.. 1990-

.
2000-
. ,
.

, ,

,

, ,

.
,

.


, ,

. ,
,
;
,
; ,
,
, ; ,
,

,
..
( )
,
.
,


.

,


,
:

,
,


;

ae , ,
,
;
,
;

()
,

,
( ,
1/10 ;
, 5%
,
);

,
:

;

,
,
,
;

,
,
( , ,
, , ,
);

 :
h

,
, ,
;

,
;

,
.

,


.

,

, y
ycox eoc, ,
,
.
,
,
,
.4
, ,
, (
, , -,
.).

:
(1)

.

.
:
) ( )
, ,
,
;

) -, , ,
,
;
)
,
,

;

)
,
, .
) ,

.
.
(2)

, , ,
, ,

.

-
.
,
.

( )

.
, ,

,
,
.
, ...,

();
, ...,
(); ,
,
,
(dono.abdurazakova@undp.org).
1 ,
,
( ).
2 ,
( , , ,
, , , .) 10%
20% .
3 ,
, , ( )
10% . 10 .
15 % ( ).
1990- 50%
. , 30 % ,
, .
4 o ,
"" (, , ,
, ), (
, , .)


:

-
1989 .
.
( ) () 49% (
25%) -15 (Eurostat,
2003). , 1989 . 10 15%
-
. , 15%
,
. 1989
-
1,1 ,
(OECD, 2003 .).
:

( )
2000 2001 . .

,
.
, ,
( , ,

)
.
, , ;

2005 | 2
,
1990- .

, .
( )
() (. 1).
2005 . ,
( ,
)
( -
).

,
.
,
, 2005,
, , ,
BSS Gallup 2003.,

5-
EC .

(),
.


.
, ..
Eurobarometer,
, .

- .

(. 2). ,
,
(
2005.), ,
12% 7% . ,
, : 3%

1. 90-. 2005 .

-
309 200
100 000
19200
17900
3000
1560
880
400

Source: UNHCR 2005

-
248200
180100
95300
85000
3000
900
800
400

 :
4% .
,
. :
; 30% 19%
.
2.2 ,
1.9 ,

. ,
, ,
.

,
.
, ,

1,5 . .
500 . 1 . .
:

.

,
(
) ,
. (. 3),
,
.

. -

,
.
, ,
.
: ,
, ,
. - .
,
,

.

,
,
.
, , ,
.
, ,
,
.
,
. (Lyberaki and Maroukis, 2004.)
. ,
, . -, ,
-

. ,
2.

,
- .
, -
;
,
,
.
,
( -
).

: 2004 ., 2005 .; Baromentrul Opiniei Publice ,

, 2003 .

[ ?]

30%

12%

11%

7%

[ ?]

na

3%

2%

4%

[ 10 ? ]

na

6%

9%

na

[ - ?]

na

14%

17%

na

[ - ?]

27%

10%

10%

na

 2005 | 2
3. -
: , EC, 2003
% ,

41
12
12
4
7

( 35 )

.
,
( ) ,
. , ,
. ,
18-45 ( ,
).
(
):
,
.
, ,
,
.

,

. ,
, ,
. -
.

.
, ,
,
. ,
, -

.
,
.
,

.
,
. ?
-
(., ,
, ) ,

. , 2003 .
700 .
1,5 . 2 . .

58
18
22
8
36

88
78
6
71
41

92
84
81
94
63

(; . . 1). 10%
- ;
15%.
, (De
Soto et al, 2002). ,
;

,
. ,

,
. ,
, .

.

-
,

1985 .

, ,
,
,
.
.. .
,

,
.
-
?
. ,

(
,
) 2003-2005 .:

. ,
,
.
,
, 0,1%
- .

 :
. 1. , 19922001. ( . )

600
500
400
300
200
100
0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

2001 .,
9%
2000 .

,


. , ,
,

. ,
.

,
- ,
.

-
. -

: ,
, ,
,
. ,
.
, ,
.

. -
, 1950- 1960-
- .
,
- .

.
-

. ,
, .
2004 .

10

De Soto, H. et al (2002), Poverty in Albania. A Qualitative Assessment, The World Bank Washington
D.C.
Functional Borders and Sustainable Security: Integrating the Balkans in the European Union
IBEU Fifth Framework EU Research Project
Germenji, E. et al (2000), Estimating Remittance Functions for Rural-Based Albanian Emigrants,
unpublished paper.
Guentcheva, R., Kabakchieva P., Kolarski P. (2003), Migration Trends in Selected Applicant Countries. Bulgaria. The social impact of seasonal migration. International Organization for Migration.
Kekic, L. (2004), Foreign Direct Investment in the Balkans: recent trends and prospects. Economist
Intelligence Unit. December.
King R., Mai N., Dalipaj M. (2003), Exploding the Migration Myths: Analysis and Recommendation for
the European Union, the UK and Albania, Sussex Center for Migration Research, University of Sussex.
Lyberaki, A. & T. Maroukis (2004), Albanian Immigrants in Athens: Some recent findings. Hellenic
Foundation for European & Foreign Policy. WP 5 WORKING PAPER No.5.2.
Mayda. A.M. (2003), Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes toward Immigrants. Discussion Paper No. 1115. Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor.
OECD (2003), Trends in International Migration, OECD: Paris.
World Bank (2003), Workers Remittances, Ch. 7 in Global Development Finance, World Bank:
Washington D.C.

- ; ,
, - .

 2005 | 2

1 2004
(, , , , , ,
)
,
. ,

,
.
,
(, 1956 . 1968
.), , ,

. , ,
, .

,
, .

( ),
, ,
,

.
( ),
, ,
.
1 : -
, 2001-2002

: Salt [2003], .

,

2001-2002.

,
20012002. 1000

,
2001-2002.,
20011000
2002.

28,800

2.8

27,000

2.6

1,400

900

0.7

19,500

1.9

1,900

0.2

1,200

0.5

4,600

4,900

1.4

7,200

2.1

6,600

0.2

24,000

0.6

2,300

0.4

1,200

0.2

7,300

3.7

4,200

2.1

, ,
- (
/ ), ,

. ,
- ,
, ,
, .
, ,
. ,
.

.

,
. 1 2

.
,
- 1998 2003 .
3.

, , ,
.

, ,
- ( ),

. ,
, (
),
.

,
, .
,

,
. ,
(
),
. ,
,
.

,
,

,
. ,

11

 :
(
) ,
175 . ( 2004
2005).
, 56% (98,235 .),
15% (26,145 .),

2: ,
, 2002

: Salt [2003], .

231,000

2.3

269,500

19.7

Salt, J., Current Trends in International Migration in Europe. CDMG (2003) 39. Strasbourg, Council of
Europe, 2003.

115,900

1.1

439,500

18.5

161,711

49,800

32,700

34,100

0.09

24,643

29,500

0.6

9,117

44,700

2.2

36,000

, .

( 7%). , ,
(Traser, 2005 .).

()
acquis com-munautaire[ . . .].
, ,
,
2007 .
,
:
,

:
In statu nascendi

,

,
.

. 1989 .

,

12

-
: http://www.migrationonline.cz,
http://www.migpolgroup.com http://austria.iom.int.

(%)

,
-
( , , ,
).

Asylum Applications Lodged in Industrialized Countries: Levels and Trends, 2000-2002. Geneva,
UNHCR 2003.

Traser, J. et al., Report on the Free Movement of Workers in EU-25. Who is Afraid of EU Enlargement? Brussels, European Citizen Action Service, 2005.
-
.
drbohlav@natur.cuni.cz

3:
,
- 1998-2003. ( )

:: Salt [2003], www.migracija.lt, www.ocma.gov.lv,, 2003.

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

4.1

7.3

8.8

18.1

8.5

8.1

7.1

11.5

7.8

9.6

6.4

1.9

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

3.4

4.6

4.5

5.2

5.1

0.5

1.3

1.6

8.2

9.7

6.2

0.5

0.9

9.2

1.5

0.7

0.8

.
,
.


.
1 000
,
,
. ,

,
1963 90-.
1952 ,
,
, ,
,

 2005 | 2
. , ,
1951
- 1967
.

,
,
.

.
,
- ,

( ),
,
.
1997 ,
. ,
,
,

1991 .
,
.
.
1990-

,
.
2004
,

. 1997
acquis communautaire

1997 ( 2005).

,
,
,
. PHARE

-,
,
, ;

.
,
,

.
,
.

, , ,
,
,
.
,
.
,
,
0,1%
(Kepinska, . 52).
2002 .,
49 200
. .
, (Kepinska, . 7). ,

1992 2004 .,

(Biuletyn Migracyjny, . 5). ,


, .

2007 .


.

,
,
,
.

,
,
.

.

,

-.
.

, .
jd309@cam.ac.uk

Kepinska, Ewa (December 2004), Recent Trends in International Migration. The 2004 SOPEMI
Report for Poland. Warsaw: ISS UW, no.56.
Biuletyn Migracyjny (June 2005), Imigranci w Polsce. Warsaw: Centre for International Relations,
No. 1.

13

. .

.
-
.

. , ,
, .
,
. ,
,
,
. 2004
-
( ,
; ;
), -
.


(, 2005a).

, ,
.1

,
,
. , ,
,
. 56%
,
1995 .
, ,
46%.

,
.
1 , , ,
,

14

1.
%
100

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
,

/

,
. 2
.
,

.

, ,
. 30%

, 15% ,
,
.
-
.

, ,
.

.
, ,
4,3 ( )
,
,
.
(
) ,
, 46 66 ,
22 23
(, 2005, . 230-231).

 2005 | 2
%
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

2.
.

- .
14%
38%
26%. , ,
, ( 3).
,
,
(, , ),
. ,
,
. ,

.

( 4).
, ,
100% ,
85 96 ,
80%.

40%.

,
.

. , 68%
,
81%.
, ,
7-15 0,93.
(16-19 ) 0,80.
, ,
64 , 96
,

3.

%
100

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

15

 :
, ,
- .
69 97
.
,
,
,
.
,
,
,
,
.


.

%
100
80
60
40
20

,
( ),
.
,

, ,
.
,

.
(
),
,
4.
.
, ,

,
.

/
, Andrey.Ivanov@undp.org; ,

Susanne.Milcher@undp.org

9
10
11 12
13 14
15
, .

, 2-3 ,
, ,
,

( 5). 12 70

, 38
30
. , 3

,

11%, 25%. 70%
,
22% 27%
. , 22%

, .

,
.

16

, ,
.

UNDP (2005a) Faces of Poverty, Faces of Hope: Vulnerability profiles of Roma population in Decade
of Roma Inclusion countries, Bratislava, UNDP http://vulnerability.undp.sk
UNDP (2005b), International Cooperation at the Crossroads: Human Development Report, New York,
UNDP http://hdr.undp.org
1 2004. ,
, , , , , ,
( , ) .
8 273 , 3 534 ,
3 537 , 1 202
).
34 116 , 17 270 , 12
548 , 4
298 .
, .

5.
,

80
70
60

50
40
30
20
10
0

2005 | 2

(1995)

(
)
:
. ,
,

.

,

,
.1

,
,
,
.
,
,
,

.

,
, ,
(. ).
,
,

;

.

(),

,

( 2003)

, :
(a)

()
;
()

.

1990-

.
,
60% ,
4,300,000 ,
1992
1995 . ,
, 1995 .,

.

,
-
.2

. , ,
, .
,

,
.

, ..
,
,
, , , ,

.
1996 .

. ,

.

,
. ,

17

 :
,


; ,
( )
.


,
500.000
, ,
.

,

(SAA), .
,
,
,

.
,
,

.

,
,
40% :
, 1991., .
,
,
,
.
,
.

, ,

(, 2005). ,

,
,
, ,
.

,

.
()
,
.
,

( )
,

.


.
,
,

.


.
(
, ,
),
,

.

18

,
chainzl@undp.ba;
szunic@undp.ba;
,

rbajrovic@undp.ba
- (RMAP): www.rmap.undp.ba ( )
:

(2005), , .
http://www.unhcr.ba/return/index.htm
(2005), , ., -.
http://www.undp.ba

1 , :
, , , , , , ,
, , , ,
.
2
. ,
2004. www.rmap.undp.ba

, -

(Linz and Stepan, 1996).

,



.

1999 ., N o 1244
(1999 .)
()
KFOR,
,
.

1244

,

.

( ),
.

, ,

. ,

2005 | 2
, ,
, , ,

.

, ,
,
,
( 10%) ,
( 90%).

.


1990- .

.

,
.

,
.

- ,

.
, ,
,
.
,
. ,

.

,
,
, ,
.
2003 . ,
,
.


, ,
, ,
.

-
.

:
,
,

19

 :
. ,

,
.

-

,
(., . ) ,
.


. 60%.

,
. ,
25 ,

, .


2004 ., ,
.

-
,
,
250 000
.
.

()

20

.

,
, .

,
.


.

, ,
,
. ,
.
- ,
d.kostovicova@lse.ac.uk

: Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan (1996), Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation,
Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore

.
2003 .
:
()

(). 47

13 . .
12 . ,
, ,
.
,

,

.

( ),
. ,

, ,
..

 2005 | 2
(,
), , .
,
, 24 .
28% , 16%
, 16% , 15% , 12%
, 2% , 2% 1% .

,

. ,
17-19 2004 ., 19
954 , ,
KFOR
. 2004 .


.

, 4,000
.
2004 . 40% 2002-2003 .,
,
,
.

3 4
, 2003 .

,
.

(2003)

, :

h

,

,

,
, ,
,
, ,


,

,
2004 . 2005 .


()
7,4 . .


.


.
, ,
,
.
-

KFOR ( )

, , .
maria-threase.keating@undp.org

21

,
,
,
, , ,
,

(Brubaker, 1996, 105)

,

(
, . ),
.

:

,
,
,
. ,
,
,
. ,
,
,
,
.

.

(. 1 2). ,
2004 . 523 . ,
22,4% , 2,34
., ;
172 . , 12,5%
1,37 . (, 2002).
1945-1955 .,
.
,
,


. ,
.

,
,
- .

22

,

. -, ,
50 . ,
,
,
. 1991 . (

),
,
,


,
. ,

,
.

90- , ,
,
, .
1991-1995 .
168
( , 2005).

, ,

.

:
,
.
,
,
, , .

2004 . ,

, -

 2005 | 2
?

,
( )
, .
, , ,
.
,
.
.
,


,
( )
, .

, ,
.
,
33

.

, ,
,

.

,
,
1990 . ,
.

:
.

.
1992 . 1938 .
( 1940 .),
,
16 1940 . .
1922 . 1919 . (
1927 .)
. ,
,
1940 ,
1991 .

, .
,

, 1994
1995 .
, ,
, ,
, 1940 .,
,
1940 ., .



.

1991 ,
, ,

. ,
(1990)
(1991-1992 .)
.
.


.



.. (
1993 .).
,

: -

,
(. . ).
, -
, , ,
,
.

.

,
.

23

 :
,

,
.
,
,
. , ,
, , ,

(60 ). ,
, ,

1998 .,
30 .
, 90-
.

, ,


, .
1995 . ( 1999-2000 .)
,
1999 . .
,

,
.


,
50% .
20%,

,
- .

2000 . , 2007
60
40
.
(
1999 . 2004 .) 2004 .
,
) )
, ,

,
.
, 90- .


. ,
, 1993 .

24

,
,
( )

,
.
, .
,
,
,

. , ,
, ,
,
.

2001 ., 2004 .,
2004 . ,

.
,

.


.
, 2000
,
, ,

.

,
,
,

( ,
).
-

-
. ,
, ,
, ,
, ,
.
,

.

.
,

(Chase, 2000). ,

-

 2005 | 2
. 2
1 2005

. 1 ,
, 2000

, .

1 349 539

2 120

1 033

1 352 692

58.90%

17 655

12 263

1 571

31 489

1.40%

1095743

86 067

8941

170 349

8952

922 204

692

165

4896

2262

1 522

658

349

2 529

0.10%

141 907

73 379

1048

133 346

1498

28 551

56 829

2 024

87 404

3.80%

29 774

11 581

7560

31 554

267

346 746

288 207

21 084

656 037

28.60%

1858

415

168

553

4925

13 812

40 952

3 813

58 577

2.60%

40 642

14 885

556

56 083

2.40%

6 418

2 796

360

9 574

0.40%

21 919

14 159

5 599

41 677

1.80%

1 826 804

432 869

36 389

2 296 062

100,00%

84.2

0.8

1.8

2.9

25.3

12.9

85.3

11.7

78.3

16.7

2.7

13.4

84.6

18.5

0.2

0.5

1.9

0.3

55

: , 2002
http://www.vm.ee/estonia/kat_399/pea_172/2868.html

.
,
. , ,

,
(Laitin, 1998).
,
,
,
.
.

, 700 .
,
- - .
, ,

,
.

.
,

,
.
, ,
,
, ,
.
,
90- .

:
http://www.np.gov.lv/index.php?en=fakti_en&saite=residents.htm

,
.

,
,
,
2009 .,
,
.


.
,
Journal of Common Market Studies :

2005 . http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/jcms
j.hughes@lse.ac.uk

Brubaker, R. (1996), Nationalism Reframed. Nationhood and the National Question in the New
Europe, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, 2005
http://www.csb.lv/avidus.cfm
Chase, R.S. (2000), Labour Market Discrimination During Post-Communist Transition: A Monop-sony
Approach to the Status of Latvias Russian Minority, Working Paper, World Bank. http://poverty.worldbank.org/library/region/6/95/
European Commission (2000-2003), Regular Reports on Estonia, 2000-2003; Regular Reports on
Latvia, 2000-2003 http://europa.eu.int/comm/enlargement/estonia/index.htm
Laitin, D. (1998), Identity in Formation. The Russian Speaking Populations in the Near Abroad (Ithaca: Cornell University Press).
-
http://www.ecmi.de.

25

,

.
,

, -
.
,

,
, ,
.
, ,

.
,
-
, , .
,


,
, ,

,
,
,
(
, .).
,
, . ,
, ,
,
. ,
?
,

? , .

, ,
,
. :
,

26

,
?
,

?
,

,
,

. ,
, ,
,
,
.
, 100 .
, ,
1990- , .
,

, ,
.
,
,
. , ,

, .
, (

) .
, -
, , ,

.


, ,

.
,
,

.
.
,

, 1990-
,
,
, , ,
, ,
. , 2000

 2005 | 2
.
.
,
1990-, ,

,
(
) .
-
,
, , ,
- .

,
.

,
.
,

.


,

,
.
,

, , ,
,

.


, . ,

.
,
, .

,

.


,
,
.
, ,
.
, .

,
,
. , ,
- ,
.
2004 ,




.
( - Nils Muiznieks)

2002 2004 .,

1994 2002 .

1995-1997.

,
( , ),

.

27

DEVELOPMENT & TRANSITION

2005 | 2

. http://hdr.undp.org/reports/

ASEN
: ,

28-29 2006

. ,
,
http://www.lse.ac.uk/collections/ASEN/
( 1 2005 )

ASN "
: " 11-
- 23-25 2006
European Challenges, 21-22 , , -. 100

, ,
.
?
?

?
?


.
.
,

. : ,
,
,
andrey.ivanov@undp.org.

VI

28-30 .

. :

(sergei.sirotkin@undp.org),

(charlotte.rodhe@undp.org).

, 7 .
,
,
.

.
:

.

www.developmentandtransition.net

, , ,
, ,
, , , , , ,
, , , .
http://www.nationalities.org/

:
? , , 5-6 ,

2006.,
,

,
,
.
,
,
http://ec.ut.ee/conf06

:
:

h
h
h

.
,
www.developmentandtransition.net

: j.hughes@lse.ac.uk
: : ,
:
: ,
(), , ,
, ,

Grosslingova 35
Bratislava 81109
Slovakia
Tel: +421 2 59337 111
Fax: +421 2 59337 450
www.undp.org/europeandcis

Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK

www.lse.ac.uk

28