Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 2013

Highlights
US Revised Consumer Sentiment gained to 84.1-level level in June. German Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in May. Japans Manufacturing Index rose to 4-mark in Q2 of 2013. Chinas Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.1-mark mark in last month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (July13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(July13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5842.2 19395.8 14909.6 1606.3 15239.3 1959.2 58497.8 13677.3 96.56 1223.80 19.45 6765.00 102.09 0.0 Prev. day 2.8 2.8 -0.8 -0.4 -1.2 -1.5 0.2 3.5 -0.5 1.0 0.0 0.4

as on June 28, 2013 WoW 3.1 3.3 0.7 0.9 -0.1 7.5 24.3 -0.1 3.1 -4.2 -0.2 -1.2 4.1 MoM -4.3 -3.7 -2.3 -3.2 -11.1 -2.1 8.3 6.0 3.3 -12.4 -13.2 -13.8 -2.7 YoY 13.5 6.0 18.3 20.9 6.8 2.0 7.6 51.9 24.3 -21.0 -29.5 -12.6 -0.6

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data indicating signs of slowdown in the worlds second largest economy. Chinas Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declined by 0.7 points to 50.1-mark mark in June as against a rise of 50.8 50.8-level in May. HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell marginally to 48.2-level in last month from 48.3-mark in May. US Chicago Purchasing Managers' rs' Index (PMI) declined by 7.1 points to 51.6-mark in June as against a rise of 58.7-level level in May. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment gained by 1.4 points to 84.1-level in June from earlier rise if 82.7-mark a month ago.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 1 percent in the last week on the back of concerns that Federal Reserve will pullback its stimulus measures. Further, favorable economic data from the US and mixed statement from Fed officials regarding its action on bond buying supported d an upside in the currency. The DX touched a weekly high of 83.595 and closed at 83.376 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index 83.38 59.52 59.74 59.75 Prev. day 0.3 1.1 -1.37 -1.36 WoW 1.0 -0.4 0.68 0.67

as on June 28, 2013 MoM 0.0 -5.7 6.74 6.75 YoY 4.9 -6.8 4.62 4.61

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee remained volatile and depreciated around 0.4 percent. The currency depreciated in the early part of the week as a result of concerns over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) of India. Additionally, strength in the DX and constant outflows of foreign funds from rom equities and debt markets exerted downside pressure on the currency and it touched all time low of 60.76-mark. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of release in CAD data from the government ahead of its release date which beat the estimates and led to appreciation in the Rupee in the last two trading session of the week. The currency touched a high of 59.20 in the last two days of the week and closed at 59.523 on Friday. For the month of June 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.11,026.90 crores th ($1,852.15 million) as on 28 June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.72,178.20 crores ($13,500.80 million) till 28 June 2013. Outlook Technical Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global markets coupled with expectations of decline in countrys manufacturing data. Further, dollar demand from importers will exert downside pressure on the currency.
US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

valid for July 1, 2013 Trend Support 59.40/59.0 Resistance 59.95/60.30

US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated around 0.9 percent in the last week on the back of strength in the DX. Further, The Euro touched a weekly low of 1.2983 and closed at 1.3008 against the dollar on Friday. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favourable vourable economic data from the region coupled with bounce back in the global markets. German Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 2.7 percent in April. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade lower on the back of weak global markets coupled with forecast for rise in the regions unemployment rate. However, expectations of favorable manufacturing data will cushion sharp fall in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 77.70/77.30 78.40/78.80 valid for July 1, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.3008 77.43 78.1 Prev. day -0.2 1.3 -1.06

as on June 28, 2013 WoW -0.9 0.4 -0.31 MoM 0.5 -6.3 7.79 YoY 2.8 -9.3 9.99

78.0

-1.09

-0.38

7.75

9.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on June 28, 2013

GBP/INR
Last Prev. day -0.31 0.31 -1.41 1.41 -1.68 1.68 WoW -1.3 -0.94 -0.63 MoM 0.5 7.43 7.57 YoY -3.2 2.73 2.60

On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound depreciated around 1.3 percent taking cues from strength in the DX. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5163 and closed at 1.521 against dollar on Friday. Sharp depreciation in the currency was prevented on account of recovery in global market sentiments entiments along with positive economic data from the country. UKs Nationwide House Prices fell to 0.3 percent in June from 0.4 percent in May. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, expectations of mixed economic data from the country will add downside pressure on the currency currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 1, 2013 Support 90.70/90.30 Resistance 91.40/91.90

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.521 90.555 91.03

91.01

-1.60 1.60

-0.63

7.54

2.58

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 1, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated around 1.3 percent in the last week on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched a weekly low of 99.45 and closed at 99.12 against dollar on Friday. le economic data from the country restricted sharp fall However, favorable in the currency. mark in Q2 of 2013 as Japans Tankan Manufacturing Index rose to 4-mark against a decline of 8-level level in Q1 of 2013. Tankan Non Non-Manufacturing Index increased by 6 points to 12-level in second cond quarter of current year from 6-mark in previous quarter. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap appreciate, taking cues from rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which could lead to rise in demand for the currency. Further, r, positive economic data from the country will support an upside in the currency.
Source: Telequote

as on June 28, 2013 Last 99.12 0.6003 60.30 60.27 Prev day 0.8 -1.77 -2.11 -2.28 WoW 1.3 -0.88 -0.59 -0.60 MoM -2.0 9.60 9.90 9.83 YoY 24.3 -16.18 -16.04 -16.09

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for July 1, 2013 Support 59.90/59.60 Resistance 60.60/60.90

Economic Indicators to be released on July 1, 2013

Indicator Treasury Sec Lew Speaks Tankan Manufacturing Index Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Manufacturing PMI HSBC Manufacturing PMI Spanish Manufacturing PMI Italian Manufacturing PMI Manufacturing PMI Net Lending to Individuals m/m CPI Flash Estimate y/y Unemployment Rate ISM Manufacturing PMI Country US Japan Japan China China Euro Euro UK UK Euro Euro US Time (IST) 5:00am 5:20am 5:20am 6:30am 7:15am 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 7:30pm Actual 4 12 50.1 48.2 Forecast 3 12 50.1 48.3 48.9 47.8 51.3 1.4B 1.6% 12.3% 50.6 Previous -8 6 50.8 48.3 48.1 47.3 51.3 1.4B 1.4% 12.2% 49.0 Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High

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