DROUGHTS CASE STUDY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Case study 1: Australia [DC] o Causes of drought o Finds its roots in the El Nino phenomenon where rainfall across key graingrowing regions of South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales have reached lowest records for the 11 month period from April 1982 to February 1983. o Global warming also plays a part in leading to high evaporation rates, dry spells and climatic shift for an already semi-arid Australia. o Other anthropogenic causes include overgrazing, over cultivation and deforestation to make way for farm lands and urban areas.

Effects of drought o o Huge economic losses in crop and livestock production. Food supply were reduced leading to increase in food prices., especially in important crop sectors like wheat, rice and citrus. o o In the 1982-83 drought, 60% of Australian sheep and cattle died. Wildlife suffered too, as the drought weakened their ability to search across wider areas for food.

Worst effects seen in the Murray-Darling river basin. [ Ref: NGM Australias dry run ]

2007-2008 saw Australias worst drought on record and a $12 billion mitigation and response plan had to be unfurled in 2007 for government control of the Murray-Darling river basin and enforcement of water saving features for farms to reduce demand and regulate supply of water.

Management of drought [ Based on Dr. Donald A. Wilhites lecture, Director of National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska] o Prediction Drought Watch, established since 1965, would commence if the total rainfall for 3 consecutive months are within the lowest 10% ever recorded. For normally arid regions, the timeframe is extended to 6 months. Based on a nationwide daily rainfall measuring network and established relationships between rainfall deficiency and the severity of recorded drought. Its rainfall information aims to assist government, business and the rural community. It also helps to assess the current situation, providing early indication of the need for contingency action or drought relief. In 1992, the Commonwealth Government National Drought Policy initiatives have led to an expansion of rainfall analysis services and also to encourage farmers to take ownership of the drought problem. Monthly rainfall analysis were to be done to document drought probability.

Emphasized that the role of government is to provide farmers with skills/tools to help manage in self-reliant fashion o o o o o Research into climate variability and predictions Seasonal climate predictions Decision support tools Training and educations Tax incentives and social support

Mitigation Drought Policy 1992 Attempted to increase resiliency to drought through proactive, mitigation measures Intensive research efforts led to the development of new, droughttolerant strains of cereal crops. Regulation of the usage of water by both farmers and households, ranging from restriction on irrigation on farms to watering of front lawns. The New South Wales government has forbidden farmers from taking little more than a drop and they have to pay for their allocation of water. Water saving schemes were employed, which made it compulsory that no person should consume more than 140 litres of water per day. Encouraging the usage of HYV crops that are drought resistant. However, this strategy has drawn much flake from the public for the encouragement of consumption of genetically modified food.

Response Because most of the losses in Australia are economic in nature, much of the response not so much on migration or provision of food and water to the people, but on education of farmers on coping with droughts and also providing aid to them.

Farmers can gain AUD5500 on Professional Advice and Planning grant if they are in the Exceptional Circumstances declared areas.

Farmers located at the Murray-Darling basin are granted up to AUD20 000 if they implement water management strategies in response to reduced water allocations.

Farmers who decide to leave the profession will be granted up to AUD 150 000

Evaluation o 1992 Drought Plan is important and beneficial because it is/ can Proactive and emphasizes mitigation and response Improves coordination between and within levels of government and organizational structure Enhances early warning through integrated monitoring efforts Involves stakeholders and encourages them to take ownership of the problem and be actively involved in making changes o Identifies areas, groups, sectors at risk Reduces economic, environmental, and social impacts (i.e., risk) Reduces conflicts between water users Improves information dissemination better delivery systems Builds public awareness

However, for drought policies to work, political will must be present to change drought management paradigm while having the collaboration within and between levels of government in drought planning and policy development. Stakeholders must be involved early and often in the development of policies and plans Public education and awareness building is critical for decision makers, policy makers, the media, and the public

Case study 2: Sahel region, Africa [LD area] o Background o Semi-arid region stretching across Africa, bounded to the north by the Sahara desert and to the south by savanna and humid tropics. Deserts can expand and contract as rainfall changes over time. Sahel is at the boundary of the Sahara desert and boundaries between them appear to have been pushed further southwards [towards the equator] in recent years as seen from river deposits, relict soils and cave art which indicate that moisture levels were once much higher. o Average annual rainfall is very low and has large annual variation. Averages between 100mm and 200mm a year with wide variations in annual totals between different years. o Most rain occurs between June and September.

Has experienced some of the worlds worst droughts, famines and degradation since 1960s. Short term climatic changes are experienced by the Sahel region as can be seen from pronounced droughts in early 1970s, 1980s and 1990s; with the 1968-74 drought being the worst for about 150 years in North Africa.

Map of Sahel region in Africa

Sample climograph of an area in Niger

Effects of droughts in Sahel

Increased amount of sheet wash, rill and gully erosion partly due to the increased compaction of soil in wetter regions in the Sahel such as central Niger. In contrast, drier regions such as Mali and Burkina Faso experienced more wind erosion.

In both the 1973-74 and 1980s drought, about 100 000 people died [for each time period], mostly through starvation due to the lack of food and also the lack of drinking water.

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Livestock suffered as well, with millions of cattle dying. Drought has also led to political issues in the Sahel region, where intra and international political conflict has ensued. In Darfur [Sudan], the currently ongoing political conflict is due in part to a drought which forced Arab herdsmen to move south into non-Arab areas. [ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3496731.stm ]

Causes of droughts o Natural causes Area with low rainfall due to distance away from equator and the migration of ITCZ to only converge over these areas at specific times of the year. o Anthropogenic causes Overgrazing by nomadic animals In the 1950s, between 5 to 12 hectare were needed to support each cow. By 1980s, it had risen to between 2 to 6 hectare, greatly exceeding the carrying capacity of the land. The support of this increase was due to drilling of wells to tap deep aquifers and year-round continuous grazing has prevented these areas from recovering. Other human activities such as civil wars in Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia, population growth and sedenterisation of nomads [spreading the effect of overgrazing to different places] have interacted with each other to lead to vegetation decline and the removal of moisture from the soil and the local environment; thereby leading to desertification.

Management of droughts

Prediction Certain Sahel countries like Kenya provide forecasts on impending rainfall deficits. Attempts have been made to enhance the spread of information on weather predicted via agromet bulletins.

Mitigation Little mitigation strategies were employed, in part because of the large land area and different political bodies involved; and in part because of the lack of focus on problems like droughts due to corruption, political strife and other pressing issues in the country. However, certain countries such as Kenya does appear to have a certain level of mitigation strategies in place. By 2006, the Kenyan government has launched a preparedness programme for the populations living in drought prone areas. In 2008, they further set aside another $30 million for the reduction of the problems of droughts. Interventions were made in the arid and semi-arid lands by preparing water sources, with up to $9 million being put in place to respond to urgent needs of farmers.

Responses Food appeals have been launched by countries in the Sahel region to feed Africans affected by famine. In 2001, the Spanish Red Cross initiated a long term bilateral cooperation with the Kenyan Red Cross to implement Drought Preparedness programme in the Machakos district in Kenya where nearly 85% of the people derive their livelihood through farming. Amongst other strategies, this programme aims to help locals to recover from recurrent drought impacts in the long term via post drought rehabilitation [ such as food aid ]. The European Commission has also allocated $5 million in humanitarian aid to vulnerable populations in Northern Kenya affected by drought and facing malnutrition.

Evaluation

Although forecasts of rainfall deficit have been done in certain areas, not all meteorological stations covers agricultural zones which consists of major food crop that maize and are therefore at greatest vulnerability and risk.

Large dependence on foreign aid for response strategies, as how it is common for most LDCs.