Cost Modeling of Battery Electric Vehicle and Hybrid Electric Vehicle based on Major Parts Cost

Pill-So0 Kim'
I

Dept. of Automotive Eng., Daelim College, Anyang-si, Korea

Abstract-There is a growing interest in electric vehicles due to environmental concerns. Concerning the environment; EVs can provide emission-free transportation. Even taking into account the emissions from the power plants needed to fuel the vehicles, the use of EVs can still significantly reduce global air pollution. Recent efforts are directed toward developing an improved main component systems for the electric vehicle applications. Soon after the introduction of electric starter for internal combustion engine early this century, despite being high-energy efficient and nonpolluting, electric vehicle lost the battle completly to internal combustion engine due to its limited range and inferior performance. But, electric vehicles offer the most promising solutions to reduce the emission of vehicles. This paper describes a method for cost reduction estimation of electric vehicle(hattery electric vehicle and hybrid electric vehicle). We used a cost reduction structure that consisted of five major subsystems for electric vehicle. Especially, we estimated the potential for cost reductions in electric vehicle as a function of time using the learning curve. Also, we estimated the potentials of cost by depreciation.
Kevwxdr -Cost Modeling, Electric Vehiele(EV), Learning

Curve Analysis,

I.

INTROOUCTION

Industrial users frequently make economic decisions about the purchase of systems for new installations, and about system repair, or replacement of existing systems that have failed in service. It is becoming increasingly important to consider the economic impact of system cost on the business when making such decisions. In many situations, decision is based upon the lowest initial cost. The tools of economic analysis can help users make more intelligent decisions regarding system purchase and replacement[ I]. On the other hand, the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) automobile at the present is a major source of urban pollution. Besides air pollution, the other main objection regarding ICE automobiles is its extremely low efficiency use of fossil fuel. Hence, the problem associated with ICE automobiles are three fold, environmental, economical, as

well as political[2]. These concerns have forced governments all over the world to consider alternative vehicle concepts. The concept of Electric Vehicle (EV) was conceived in the middle of previous century. EVs offer the most promising solutions to reduce the emission. From the energy aspect, EVs can offer a secure, comprehensive and balanced energy option that is efficient and environmentally energies. Furthermore, EVs will have the potential to have a great impact on energy, environment and transportation as well as hi-tech promotion, new industry creation and economic development. In response to technological needs for EV's, the development of power electronics technology will take an accelerated pace in future years[3]. The revival of EV's is becoming more and more definite. This opinion is not only found in technical literature[4],[5], but also in business magazines. EVs constitute the only commonly known' group of automobiles that qualify as ZEV. These vehicles use an electric motors for propulsion, and batteries as electrical energy storage devices[6]. Based on our previous work, namely, application examples for cost estimation modeling[7],[12], the pulpose of this paper is to review the main component systems of EV and to estimate various relative cost of main component systems in EV's. Concretely speaking, we made costs estimates based on today's technology and projected how the costs might be reduced due to increased production cost savings (i.e., learning c u v e effects) or increased competition, and we estimated the potentials of cost by depreciation. Also, today's costs and projections at I IO years were calculated, as discussed later[ 131. The cost reduction guidelines presented in this paper are general in nature, and may be applied to any type or size system through small transformation. Althotigh not included in the economic analysis, users should also be aware that premium characteristics systems generally run more accurate than standard systems, leading to longer system life.

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11.

OUTLINE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE

Recently in the world, many projects are developing EV because environment on earth are recognized as the most important problem. Namely, the EV offers one of the most promising solutions for improving air quality while reducing the reliance on fossil fuels to power vehicles. The use of EVs remains limited, however, because their driving performance has been too poor and cost has been too high. In order for an EV to he accepted in society, the EV design should take advantage of attributes which could only be incorporated into EVs, such as lower maintenance, and quieter and easier driving. With this broad definition in mind, electric vehicles may include battery electric vehicles(BEV), hybrid electric vehicle(HEV) and fie1 cell electric vehicle(FCEV). In this paper, BEV and HEV are discussed. The main system composition of the BEV and HEV are shown Fig.1. As main components of the EV, a battery is installed within the bottom of the body, and a driving

motor, an inverter, an automatic speed change gear and a compressor for an air-conditioner are installed within a hood(bonet).
1 1 1 . COSTMODELING

Economic evalualion is a useful tool to determine the relative merit of system proposals with different characteristics. The results of the evaluation help the user to choose the alternative that.is most profitable for the business. We used cost reduction sttucture that is consisted of five major subsystem in case of EV~[71~[91,[~~1,[~31. 1)battery 2)driving motor (in case of HEV, motor and control system) 3)inverter and controller (in case ofHEV, engine and transmission) 4)body Game 5)other related system Also, to alleviate the problem of price variation with time, we choose to express the various cost not in dollars or other official monetary units, but in an arbitary unit which is the cost of one ampere-hour of nickel-metal hydridewi-MH) battery. These cost reduction structure are dealt with seperately as follows: A . Battery It can be seen that the critical battery of EV is the NI-MH. Therefore, in this study, the Ni-MH batteries are selected for EV applications. Because the specific energy and specific power of electrochemical batteries are generally significantly lower than those of gasoline, a large number of batteries are required to assure a desired level of power performance. However, mounting a large number of batteries on the vehicle suffers from several disadvantages ; the reduction of interier and luggage spaces, the decrease in vehicle performances. Thus, the development of battery technology has been accelerated, in which a set of criteria including the specific energy, specific power, energy efficiency, charging rate, cycle life, operating environment, cost, safety and recycling must be considered. In this study, the relative cost of nickel-metal hydride (Ni-MH) battery is 1.7[pu]. The cost of the battery is based on the energy capacity of battery.

(b) hybrid clcctric vehicle(HEV) Fig. I.Main system composition of the EV

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C . Inverter and Controller

where CB EB

= total

cost o f battery [pu]

capacity of battery [Ah] U B = unit cost of battery per Ah [pdAh]

= energy

B. Driving Motor and Control System In the past decades, DC variable-speed drive systems were commonly used for industrial drive and EV applications. Especially, the main component systems of EV drivetrain are its electric motor. Motors generally used for driving the EV are brush DC motor, AC induction motor and Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor(PMSM) etc. The brush DC motor has a large electromagnetic wave noise due to its composition of brushes and a commutator, the necessity of maintenance of brush due to its structure depending on mechanical contacting, and the limits to speed. For these drawbacks, the brush DC motor has disadvantage in reducing the size and weight of the EV driving system. Also, the AC induction motor and the PMSM have no mechanically contacted parts, and therefore more suitable for the EV driving system than the brush DC motor. In this paper, the author applied the PMSM into the EV driving system. The cost o f the motor is proportional to the electric power requirement of the motor, Pb,[W],

The selection of power devices for BEV propulsion is generally based on the requirements of the voltage rating, current rating, switching frequency, power loss, and dynamic characteristic. A high-power bipolar-junction transistorized inverter has the advantages over its thyristorized counterpart in the aspects of commutation problems, switching frequency, and efficiency. Morever, it also has the advantages over its power MOSFET-based counterpart in the aspects of power handling capabilities, conduction resistance, and cost. Although a new power device, namely the insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGBT's), has been repeated to have the advantages of both power bipolar-junction transistors (BIT's) and power MOSFET's, the BIT's are still the most mature technology and are the power device most commonly used in motor drive applications. As a main circuit element, an powrr-TR module is used. On the other hand, the major function of the controller is to control the three-phase PWM inverter, hence the operation of the induction motor, in accordance with the control strategy. With the adoption of recently avariable 16-bit embedded microcontroller. the hardware count and size of the controller cm be greatly reduced. Microprocessors are usually used to recognize the milestone of the development of microelectronics. In case of BEV, the cost of the inverter and controller are calculated by the eq.(4).

Where CM=total cost of motor [pu] PM= electric power requirement of motor[W] Un= unit cost of motor per W[puiW] CcC= cost of control system [pu] (in case of HEV). The motor power is estimated from

where C C = total cost of inverter and controller [pu] Cw = subtotal cost of inverter [pu] CCoN= subtotal cost of controller [pu]. The three-phase PWM inverter consists of power transistor, recovery diode and base driving circuit, et al. The cost of the three-phase PWM inverters are based on the power ratings according to the number of various devices.

where PL= load [VA]

nr= motor efficiency ["h].

Generally, the motor's efficiency is about 90[%], assuming a middle motor.

D. Engine and Transmission

In case of HEV, the cost of the engine and transmission are calculated by the eq.(5).

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where CET= total cost of engine and transmission [pu] CEN = subtotal cost of engine [pu] CTw= subtotal cost of transmission [pu].

CO = cost of braking system [pu] Cc- = cost of lighting system [pu] Ccr = cost of power transfer system [pu] Cc6 =cost of wheel system [pu].
Also, the cost of the technical system, CT, is estimated from

E. Bo& Frame
The body frame of the vehicle consists of various components. In this study, we assumed the cost of a body frame is constant like conventional use. Therefore, in case of BEV, the cost of body frame is about 67.21puI. Also, in case of HEV, the cost of body frame is ahout 63.6[pu]. These costs are based on discussions with conventional users. Support components were not included in the cost estimate.

where CTI= cost of battery capacity meter [pu] CTI = cost of battery level meter [pu] CT3 =cost of various diagonosis system Lpu].

m. TODAY'S COST ESTIMATION RESULTS

The estimated cost using the basic cost assumptions describld above and below, is given in Table I. Labor costs for assembly are not included. The results are referred to as "Today's costs", no credit is taken for future price reductions due to the benefits of mass production, technology improvements, or competitions. TABLE I
COST ESTIMATION Of EV IN CASE OF BEV AND HEV

F. Other Related System

Because EVs do not have an alternator, many auxiliary systems must depend on EV batteries to supply the necessary power. Air-conditioning, power steering, lamps and radios are just some of the accessories of an EV which have to rely on power converters to provide power from batteries. Other related system of vehicle consists of conventional system like air-conditioner, steering system, braking system, lighting system, power transfer system, wheel system, et al, and technical system for the EV like battery capacity meter, battery level meter, diagonosis system for electric circuits, et al. Therefore, we assumed the cost of the other related system shown in eq. (6). Especially, it assumes that the cost of a conventional system is constant.

v. POTENTIAL COST REDUCTION ESTIMATION

where CR= total cost of other related system [pu] Cc = subtotal cost of conventional system [pu] Cr = subtotal cost of technical system for EV bu]. The cost of the conventional system, Cc. is estimated from We estimated the potential for cost reduction in EV as a function of time. The assumptions and results are summarized in this section.
A. Learning Curve AnaLvsis

cc = c c , + ccz + cc3 + CC? +ccj + CC6

where Ccl = cost of air-conditioner [pu] Ccz = cost of steering system [pu]

(7)

It assumed that the system cost is reduced by S[%](in case of HEV, 6[%]) for each doubling in total EVs produced (referred to as a 95[%] (in case of HEV, 94[%]) learning curve). Consequently, this leads to the

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following generalized relationship[ 141.

c, = C,.p"

(9)

where C,= cost of total EV produced CI = cost of the first EV p = total EV produced n' = In 0.95 / In 2 (in case of HEV, In 0.94 / In2) therefore, in case of BEV, C,= CI.p-0.074 in case of HEV, C,= C,.p".089 (10-1) (10-2)

In order to determine the learning curve savings, we assumed a production schedule shown in Table 11. In case of BEV, the learning curve analysis was applied to the driving motor and inverter & controller (in case of HEV, the motor & control system and engine & transmission) as discussed below. Since today's body frame is fairly mature technology and its capability is not expected to improve greatly in the future, these costs was not applied to a learning curve reduction model. It is assumed that the cost of the battery, driving motor and inverter & controller (in case of HEV, the motor & control system and engine & transmission), and other related system could be reduced by technology development, mass production and competition.
II TABLE
ASSUMED PRODUCTION SCHEDULES
AND LEARNING CURVEFACTOR

It assumed that technologies of other related system of BEV can he improved to give 2[%] by year I, j[S/.] by year 2, 8["/,] by year 3, I2[%] by year 4, 16[%] by year 5, 20[%] by year 6. 25[%] by year 7, 30[%] by year 8, 35[%] by year 9 and 40[%] by year 10. Also, it.assumed that technologies of other related system of HEV can be improved to give 3[%] by year I , 7[%] by year 2, II[%] by year 3, 17[%] by year 4. 23[%] by year 5 , 30[%] by year 6. 38[%] by year 7,46[%] by year 8, 54[%] by year 9 and 62[%] by year IO. Lastly, we assumed that the costs of driving motor and inverter & controller (in case of HEV, the motor & control system and engine & transmission) could be reduced by 95[%] (in case of HEV, 94[%]) for the first commercial system. We assumed that this can be achieved for the smaller systems with EV as the market and technology develop. For years 2- 10, the learning curve factors from Table 2 are applied to the year one cost.

B. Estimation of Cost by Depreciation

A dollar available today is worth more than the same dollar available tomorrow, or next year, or ten years from now. If a cost of 100[$]/year for the next ten years is discounted at 2[%], it will have a present value of 898.2[$] as seen below: The cost for the first year is lOO[S]. This amount is multiplied by the discount factor of 0.980 to yield a present value of 98.0[S]. The discount factor is calculated by eq.( II):

End (I
Year

EV per Year1
BEV
HEV

Tom1 EVs Built

BEY
HEV

Curve

FwIw
BEV
HEV

Discount Factor = I / (I + ( D / IO0 ))" where D = discount rate in [%] n = number of years.

(I I)

The greater energy capability of battery is the larger cost reduction of battery. Therefore, it assumed that technologies of battery can be improved to give 2[%] by year 1,5[%] by year 2, IO[%] by year 3, 15[%] by year 4. 20[%] by year 5, 2S[%] by year 6. 32[%] by year 7, 41[%] by year 8, 50[%] by year 9 and 60[%] by year IO.

The discount factor is calculated for the remaining years in the above example, and the. discounted, values are totaled to obtain a net present value of 898.2[$] for the sequence of cost during the ten years. In case of considering cost depreciation in this study, the total cost of system were more reduced by depreciation. We assumed that discount rate of cost is 2[x].

C. Summary of Cost Reduction

Table 111 summarized the result of the cost reduction

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analysis for the cases considered. For our BEV assumptions, the overall cost is reduced by 86.5[%] by year 3,79.7[%] by year 5 and 56.6[%] by year IO without cost by depreciation. In case of BEV, there are a significant reduction in the battery, inverter & controller due to technical improvements in the design.

TABLE 111
ESTIMATEDCOSTFOR EV WITH COSTBY DEPRECIATION

to demonstrate its benefits. Clearly the detailed cost model of EV is more complicated than in our cost model examples. Also, cost reduction methods have been applied to common system decisions faced in industry. Investment guidelines justify the purchase of optimum systems for new installations. The guidelines are general in nature, and may be applied to any type or size system. The economic tools are also applicable for commercial applications.
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h l . Power Electronics

VI. CONCLUSION This paper has received the five subsystem (BEV : battery, driving motor, inverter and controller, body frame and other related system, HEV : battery, motor & control system, engine & transmission, body frame and other related system) of EV and evaluated various relative cost of the main components systems by proposed criteria. Today's BEV system is dominated by the cost of other related system, with a second major cost component being the battery. Also, Today's HEV system is dominated by the cost of other related system, with a second major cost component being the engine & transmission. Technology improvements and cost reductions caused by mass productions and competition are expected nver the next ten years. We project that a reduction to a half of today's cost could be possible with aggressive market and technology development. Also, operating costs should be also decreased with automatic system using microprocessor. The cost model of this paper was applied to an actual EV

Procerdimgs o f the lnternorional Cu@rence on Power Electronics (lCPE95). pp.715-719, 1995.

Pill-So0 Kim and Yong Kim, "A Future Cost Trends of Magnetizer Systcms", Proceeding3 o f the lnrrntationol Conference on Industrid Elecwmics. Control and lnsrrumrnrorion (lECON96). pp.991-996, 1996. Pill-Suo Kim and Y. Kim, '"Rclative Cast Comparisons betwccn Capacitor-type and SCR-ripe Mngnctircr System", The forrmol qf EElSvol.2,no. 2.pp.23-29, 1997. [ I O ] Pill-Soa Kim and Yong Kim, "A Cost Trcnds Study of Elect& Vchicle in Korea". Proceedinp of the 8th lnternarionol Electronics &Morion Control Conference (PEMC'98). 1998. I l l ] Pill-Saa Kim and Y. Kim, "Relative Cost Modcling o f Elcctric Vehiclc in Korca", Proceedings o f rhe IEEE lnhmotionol
~~

Conference on Power Electronics Drives and Energy Systems fix lnduswiol Growth (PEDES'98). 1998.

[I21 Pill-So0 Kim, "FuNre Cost Estimation of Hybrid Electric Vehicle

using thc Leaming Curvc", Proceedingsof the F/S1TA'2000,2000. [I31 S. M. Schocnung, et ai, "Small Technology and Cost Rcduction Estimatcs", IEEE Trans. on Energy Conversion, vol. 9, no. 2. pp.231-237, 1994. [I41 I. A. Cunningham, "Using the Lcaming Curve as a Managcmcnt Tool': IEEESpecmrm, pp.4548, June, 1980.

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