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rd
3 July 2013
Equities
2011
The markets reversed weeks of downward momentum with the NSE 20 Share Index gaining marginally by 1.11 points to close
at 4,562.83 points up from 4,561.74 Market capitalization expanded by 0.04% to close the day at Kes.1.616Tn down from
Kes.1.615Tn registered in yesterdays trading session. Equity turnover remained defiant to market trends by maintaining its
upward momentum, gaining 22.39% to close at 0.530Bn up from 0.433Bn. Foreign investors took to accumulating activities
with net inflows recorded at 1.92Mn.
Foreign investor activity was at 62.94% down from 66.93% recorded at the end of yesterdays close of business. Foreigners
reversed their selling stance to register net inflow at Kes. 1.92Mn up from an outflow position of Kes. 15.67Mn recorded in
the previous trading session.
To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results, is harder than it
looks- Benjamin Graham
The highlights of the days trading activity are listed below:
Value Traded
150,232,110.00
134,177,400.00
80,288,450.00
42,217,200.00
34,473,750.00
Index
NASI
NSE 20 Share
Price (KES)
15.35
15.95
4.90
11.25
32.50
% Change
6.60%
5.63%
5.38%
2.74%
1.56%
Losing Stocks
Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
2.45 -5.77%
46.00 -4.66%
23.00 -3.16%
14.10 -2.08%
% change
0.03%
0.02%
Price (KES)
% Change
3.85 -7.23%
Today
115.48
4562.83
Gaining Stocks
Equity
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
Unga Group Ltd Ord 5.00
CIC Insurance Group Ltd Ord.1.00
Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd Ord.1.00
Trans-Century Ltd Ord 0.50 AIMS
Previous
115.44
4561.74
Previous
Market Cap. (Kes.Bn)
1,615.51
Equity T/O: (Kes.Mn)
433.17
Local/Foreign Equity T/O: (%)
33.07;66.93
Advance;Decline Ratio
13;16
Bond T/O: (Kes.Mn)
1,351.90
Sell/Buy Back Transactions T/O: (Mn)
0.00
Sell/Buy Back Transactions (% of Total Bond T/O)
0.00%
Source: NSE & Genghis Capital Estimates
Today
1,616.20
530.13
37.06;62.94
14;14
2,107.25
0.00
0
% Change
0.04%
22.39%
55.87%
Buys (Kes)
Sales (Kes)
Buys (Kes)
Sales (Kes)
137,118,437.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
152,791,600.00
167,793,587.50
Net Inflow/(Outflow)
Position
165,875,035.00
(15,673,162.50)
1,918,552.50
The total index decreased by 0.16%. Three sectors advanced in value, while seven sectors declined.
The Construction & Allied Sector was the best sector for the day with 1.65% gain in value. E. A. Portland
Cement (NSE: EAPC) and E.A. Cables (NSE: CABL) spurred performance in this sector by recording gains
of 6.73% and 6.60% in value. The counters closed the trading at Kes. 55.50 and Kes. 15.35 respectively.
The worst performing sector for the day was the Investment Sector posting a decline of 1.89%. Olympia
Capital Holdings (NSE: OCH) continued to weigh down the sector with losses of 7.23%. The counter has
been experiencing distribution activities after management announced a 67.48% dip in their bottom-line
profit despite a 6% gain in revenues for the year ended Feb 2013.
Table 5: Daily Segmental Price Performance Analysis
Sector
CONSTRUCTION & ALLIED
INSURANCE
BANKING
MANUFACTURING & ALLIED
AGRICULTURAL
TELECOMMUNICATION & TECHNOLOGY
COMMERCIAL AND SERVICES
ENERGY & PETROLEUM
AUTOMOBILES & ACCESSORIES
INVESTMENT
Total Index
Constituents
5
6
11
9
7
2
9
5
4
3
61
Gain/ -Loss
1.65%
1.63%
0.39%
-0.16%
-0.28%
-0.39%
-0.48%
-0.80%
-1.26%
-1.89%
-0.16%
Company
Centum Investment Co Ltd Ord 0.50
Equity Bank Ltd Ord 0.50
KenolKobil Ltd Ord 0.05
NIC Bank Ltd Ord 5.00
E.A.Cables Ltd Ord 0.50
ARM Cement Ltd Ord 1.00
Diamond Trust Bank Kenya Ltd Ord 4.00
Kenya Commercial Bank Ltd Ord 1.00
Uchumi Supermarket Ltd Ord 5.00
Nation Media Group Ltd Ord. 2.50
British-American Investments Co.(Kenya) Ltd Ord 0.10
Bamburi Cement Ltd Ord 5.00
The Co-operative Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 1.00
Kenya Re Insurance Corporation Ltd Ord 2.50
KenGen Co. Ltd Ord. 2.50
Jubilee Holdings Ltd Ord 5.00
Sasini Ltd Ord 1.00
Housing Finance Co.Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
National Bank of Kenya Ltd Ord 5.00
Scangroup Ltd Ord 1.00
Portfolio Return
12 Month Target
Price
24.50
36.85
12.00
58.40
14.55
73.00
172.00
44.00
22.25
334.00
6.25
201.00
16.76
22.00
20.90
186.00
15.50
33.97
32.85
59.60
Current Price
21.00
31.50
8.80
53.00
15.35
64.00
169.00
37.50
19.70
300.00
8.00
210.00
15.50
16.15
15.00
234.00
12.70
25.50
22.00
60.50
Upside
Potential
14.29%
14.52%
26.67%
9.25%
-5.50%
12.33%
1.74%
14.77%
11.46%
10.18%
-28.00%
-4.48%
7.52%
26.59%
28.23%
-25.81%
18.06%
24.93%
33.03%
-1.51%
Return to Date
44.33%
-5.26%
-17.76%
-1.85%
30.08%
105.66%
7.64%
-12.28%
173.61%
-11.24%
100.00%
25.00%
-5.49%
60.70%
80.72%
43.56%
16.51%
0.00%
-3.30%
22.84%
32.67%
Recommendation
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
Fixed Income:
Treasury Remains Inactive in the Repo Market
Money Markets: Treasury remained inactive in todays trading session.
Primary Markets: The 182-day T-Bill and 364-Day T-Bills were auctioned today with treasury accepting Kes.90.8Mn
and Kes.37.4Mn respectively. The rate for the 182-Day paper increased to 6% while that of the 364-Day T-Bill remained
unchanged at 8.356%. The 91-Day will be auctioned tomorrow Kes.2Bn. The sale of the 15yr Treasury bond will be
reopened from July 8th to July 23rd. The bond will have a coupon yield of 12.725%.
Secondary Markets: Bond turnover was up to Kes. 2.17Bn from yesterdays Kes.1.35Bn. The 15yr and 10yr Treasury
bonds were dominantly traded at turnovers of Kes.750Mn and Kes.700Mn respectively and collectively contributing
to 99% of the days traded volume.
Tenor
91 Day
182 Day
1 Year
2 Year
5 Year
10 Year
Kenya
5.18%
6.00%
8.36%
12.94%
11.31%
12.37%
Uganda
Tanzania
U.S
LIBOR (USD)
0.05%
10.42%
11.91%
0.27%
0.09%
12.11%
13.97%
0.41%
0.14%
13.44%
14.51%
0.68%
0.33%
12.98%
14.30%
-1.31%
13.98%
14.86%
-2.41%
14.14%
15.82%
-Source: CBK, BOU, BOT, US Treasury, BBA, Genghis Capital
33
Performance: The KES registered a poor showing, gaining in two currency pairs while weakening
in five. The only gains for the day were 1.0% and 0.78% against the ZAR and INR respectively. The
gain against the INR was due to concerns that overseas investors would pull out more money
from local assets leaving the rupee vulnerable to a record current account deficit. The biggest
drop of 1.16% to the GBP was due to the pound strengthening against the USD after industry
reports showed UK service & manufacturing growth accelerated in June; coupled with
construction expansion signalling that the economic recovery is gaining momentum.
Table 8: Currency Rate
Currency Pair
USD/KES
85.90
86.15
GBP/KES
130.15
131.66
EUR/KES
111.68
111.83
ZAR/KES
8.65
8.56
KES/UGX
30.05
29.97
KES/TZS
19.01
18.93
1.44
1.43
INR/KES
Source: Bloomberg 4.00pm E.A.T, Genghis Est.
Technical Analysis and Outlook: The graph below depicts the Bollinger band study of the USDKES pair. The
indicator shows volatility of the pair of the currencies. It is an analysis tool that provides a more in depth view of
the state of a trend.
Source: Bloomberg
Current
-0.05%
1,287.58
35,516
12.87
% Change
Current
0.92%
% Change
169.57
170.706
0.67%
878
10.33
3,629
10.33
313.49%
Today
-0.80%
12.972
245
11.34
% Change
-0.12%
1.11%
-0.30%
120.96%
Small-Cap Index
VWAP
6.35
324.00
31.50
37.50
15.80
283.00
210.00
15.50
300.00
565.00
64.00
15.00
169.00
53.00
65.50
14.10
4.15
9.95
284,789,128
2,150,000,000
1,471,761,200
54,450,000
2,179,615,440
604,947,068
600,000,000
273,950,284
148,210,640
582,709,440
280,000,000
265,426,614
235,750,000
515,270,364
96,000,000
90,000,000
33,980,265
253,125,000
228,055,500
74,059,026
175,028,706
19,525,446
208,084,296
60.50
8.00
8.80
234.00
4.90
21.00
16.15
32.50
46.00
13.50
22.00
19.70
25.50
11.25
53.00
55.50
140.00
15.35
12.70
27.00
16.40
115.00
9.55
5,728,314
8,756,320
19,599,999
278,342,393
60,000,000
23,727,000
75,708,873
22,279,616
1,200,000
210,000,000
58,500,000
3,912,000
16,078,500
14,393,106
40,000,000
35,403,790
12,868,124
Mkt Cap.
Kshs Mn.
254,000
256,211
116,637
110,635
85,818
81,243
76,221
54,132
47,136
56,500
31,698
32,975
27,553
19,027
17,926
8,926
6,350
4,593
1,287,581
23,658,600
130,300
4,259,600
919,300
658,000
4,600
0
5,179,900
13,700
700
15,400
153,600
31,900
53,500
57,700
86,200
229,900
62,700
35,515,600
-0.78%
-0.31%
0.80%
0.00%
0.64%
1.07%
0.00%
0.32%
0.00%
-2.08%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.59%
0.95%
0.00%
-2.08%
1.22%
0.00%
-0.05%
0.44
13.46
3.26
4.11
1.61
26.60
12.17
1.84
15.90
32.71
2.51
1.28
14.75
5.87
9.90
2.36
1.32
3.58
8.54
0.31
8.75
1.25
1.90
1.00
12.50
10.50
0.50
10.00
32.50
0.50
0.60
1.90
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
4.69
15.91
28.83
10.74
10.16
11.30
11.32
17.09
9.21
19.62
16.81
27.49
11.84
11.73
9.37
6.36
7.33
3.33
3.14
12.87
Dividend
Yield - %
4.43%
2.26%
3.57%
4.55%
5.49%
4.15%
5.05%
2.95%
3.21%
5.91%
0.72%
3.96%
1.10%
1.82%
0.00%
2.89%
11.36%
2.22%
3.65%
17,230
17,200
12,951
12,741
10,680
12,704
9,690
8,903
6,818
7,867
6,160
5,229
6,012
5,797
5,088
4,995
4,757
3,885
2,896
2,000
2,870
2,245
1,987
170,706
1,800
205,100
1,169,700
0
1,112,000
24,200
325,700
2,300
100
0
26,900
527,600
78,100
2,100
2,100
100
0
147,600
2,500
0
900
0
0
3,628,800
0.83%
-1.23%
-1.12%
0.00%
5.38%
0.00%
1.25%
1.56%
-4.66%
0.00%
0.00%
2.87%
0.99%
2.74%
0.00%
6.73%
0.00%
6.60%
-0.78%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.92%
2.21
1.40
-4.26
35.32
0.64
1.79
4.00
1.66
3.60
0.18
1.49
1.03
3.22
1.72
7.27
-9.09
11.46
1.74
1.72
2.56
-0.32
10.11
0.69
3.48
0.60
0.10
0.00
7.00
0.10
0.00
0.40
0.40
1.30
0.00
0.20
0.30
1.40
0.40
3.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
5.05
0.30
1.20
30.09
5.96
-2.43
7.47
8.20
12.15
4.28
19.58
14.44
75.00
14.09
19.32
7.84
7.24
8.12
-6.16
12.22
8.65
8.14
11.82
-53.28
10.98
13.84
10.33
0.90%
1.20%
0.00%
2.65%
1.90%
0.00%
2.34%
1.23%
2.50%
0.00%
0.95%
1.51%
5.54%
3.21%
5.08%
0.00%
3.57%
6.64%
7.14%
0.00%
0.00%
4.55%
3.14%
2.35%
95.00
227.00
80.00
5.25
21.50
54.50
15.95
23.00
490.00
2.45
9.00
544
1,988
1,568
1,461
1,290
1,293
1,208
512
588
515
527
130,600
0
700
3,000
9,200
700
88,500
6,900
0
4,800
0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-1.87%
-1.15%
0.00%
5.63%
-3.16%
0.00%
-5.77%
0.00%
8.45
93.74
19.35
0.68
6.34
5.63
2.81
7.48
84.86
-0.59
-0.38
0.00
57.50
3.75
0.25
1.10
1.25
0.75
0.55
7.50
0.00
0.00
53.02
2.56
4.44
7.79
3.39
9.95
5.57
3.48
5.54
-4.58
-23.68
0.00
23.96%
4.36%
4.72%
5.12%
2.23%
4.79%
2.12%
1.60%
0.00%
0.00%
135.00
27.25
13.00
3.85
3.75
3.00
528
438
187
154
133
39
0
0
0
200
0
0
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
-7.23%
0.00%
0.00%
19.93
1.36
-11.80
0.38
0.37
0.04
7.50
1.25
0.00
0.10
0.00
0.00
6.37
20.59
-1.04
13.68
10.68
6
75.00
5.91%
4.46%
0.00%
1.92%
0.00%
0.00%
EPS
DPS
P/E
Disclaimer: The content provided on this document is provided as general information and does not constitute advice or recommendation by Genghis
Capital Ltd and should not be relied upon for investment decisions or any other matter and that this document does not constitute a distribution
recommending the purchase or sale of any security or portfolio. Please note that past performance is no indication of future results. The ideas expressed in
the document are solely the opinions of the author at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. Although the author has made
every effort to provide accurate information at the date of publication all information available in this report is provided without any express or implied
warranty of any kind as to its correctness. You should consult your own independent financial adviser to obtain professional advice before exercising any
decisions based on the information present in this document. Any action that you take as a result of this information, analysis, or advertisement is
ultimately your responsibility.