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EL IMPACTO DE CAMISEA

EN LA MATRIZ ERGETICA
Carlos Herrera Descalzi

UNMSM
Escuela Académica Profesional de
Ingeniería Mecánica de Fluidos
Lima, 26–07-2003
Proyecto de CAMISEA|
Aguas arriba
COLOMBIA
• Campos de Gas de ECUADOR
Camisea
• Planta de separación
criogénica en Camisea
• Fraccionamiento de PERU
BRASIL
condensados en la costa

TRANSPORTE Y
DISTRIBUCIÓN Camisea
Acre

• Gasoducto: Camisea – PLANTA


CRIOGENICA
EXPORTACION DE Lima

BOLIVIA
Puertas de Ciudad en Lima CONDENSADOS
LPG
• Poliducto - Camisea- Costa
• Red de Dsitribución de Gas LEYENDA
FRACCIONAMIENTO
DE LIQUIDOS Lago
en Lima y Callao GASODUCTO
EXPORTAC. DE GLP Titicaca
POLIDUCTO
CHILE
Las serpientes de los Andes
Características del Proyecto
• El Yacimiento tiene un Valor Nominal de...

78.5% Gas Seco Gas Seco 48%


Por 1.0
12760x1012 BTU 12760’ US$

13 TPC 26680’ US$

Condensados Condensados
Por 4.0
21.5% 3480x1012 BTU 13920’ US$
52%
1 Barril =
Precio del Gas Natural Seco = 1.0 US$ / 106 BTU 4.5x10 6

Precio del Condensado = 18 US$ / Barril = 4.0 US$ / 106 BTU BTU
Actuales Regiones y
Reservas Gasíferas
COSTA
NORTE

SELVA RESERVAS
CENTRAL GAS-BCF LGN-MMB
PROBADAS 290 14,3
RESERVAS PROBABLES 80 3,6
GAS-BCF LGN-MMB POSIBLES 58 4,6
PROBADAS 296 14,8
PROBABLES 789 39,4
POSIBLES 1.802 90,1 CAMISEA

LIMA SELVA
SUR

RESERVAS
GAS-BCF LGN-MMB
PROBADAS 8.404 567
PROBABLES 7.373 340
POSIBLES 10.671 466
VISIÓN DE LARGO PLAZO DEL GAS
EN EL PERÚ
Talara
Aguaytía
Piura Centro
Chiclayo Neurálgico Camisea
Huancayo “Concentrador”
Trujillo Oroya
Chimbote Ayacucho

Lima Cuzco
Apurimac
Todas las
Ica
Etapas Marcona Arequipa Puno
Moquegua
Tacna
Ilo
Impacto de Camisea
 Balanza Comercial
 En 1990 el déficit fue de 3.7 Millones Barriles y 52.5 Millones US$.
 El 2000 el déficit fue de 13.8 Millones Barriles y 713 Millones US$.
 Impacto en las Tarifas Eléctricas
 Cada año de retraso de Camisea origina un mayor pago de los usuarios eléctricos
de 100 Millones US$.
 Ingresos del Estado
 Regalías (37.24%): aplicado a la producción vendida en Camisea (gas natural y
líquidos).
 Impuesto a la Renta (30%): Aplicado a las utilidades.
 Impuesto General a las Ventas (18%).
 Desarrollo Industrial
 Participación de la Industrial Nacional: Generación de Nuevas industrias y nuevos
puestos de Trabajo.
Impacto de Camisea
Precio de los Energéticos
Lima – Cliente Residencial
Enero 2001
40
34
35
US$ / 106 BTU

30
25
19
20 15 14 IGV 2.0
15
DBP 8.2
10
T&DAP 1.8
5
Gas 1.8
0
Electricidad GLP Kerosene Gas Natural
Impacto de Camisea
Precio de los Energéticos
Lima – Cliente Comercial / Industrial Menor
30 Enero 2001
32
28
US$ / 106 BTU

24
20 16
16
14 13
IGV 0.7
12
DBP 0.7
8
5
T&DAP 1.8
4
Gas 1.8
0
Electricidad GLP Diesel Kerosene Gas Natural
Impacto de Camisea
Precio de los Energéticos
Lima – Cliente Transporte
Enero 2001
32

28
US$ / 106 BTU

24
20
20 16 14 IGV 1.2
16
Grifo 2.1
12
DBP 0.1
8
7
T&DAP 1.6
4
Gas 1.8
0
Gasolinas GLP Diesel GNC
Camisea y el medio
ambiente
Ponderación y equilibrio
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
Damage to Rain Forest Assailed
 Two Texas energy companies, both closely tied to the Bush White House, are lining
up administration support for nearly $900 million in public financing for a Peruvian
natural gas project that will cut through one of the world's most pristine tropical rain
forests.
 the Camisea project has encountered fierce opposition. Worldwide environmental
groups and some members of Congress argue that the massive extraction and
pipeline project will destroy the rain forest and the lifestyle of its indigenous people.
 will test the political pull of the Texas companies, Hunt Oil Co. and Halliburton Co.,
which have longstanding ties to the Bush-Cheney administration and the
Republican Party
 Hunt brought in Halliburton's Kellogg Brown & Root unit to engineer a proposed
next phase, a $1 billion plant from which Hunt hopes to export liquid natural gas to
the United States by 2006.
 The controversy surrounding the project highlights the conflict between Bush's
energy policy, which advocates mining fossil fuels globally, and U.S. environmental
safeguards, which detractors say the administration plays down.
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas
Project's Damage to Rain Forest
 Assailed
Under federal regulations, projects receiving backing from the Export-
Import Bank of the United States and the Inter-American Development
Bank must pass rigorous reviews to ensure that they will not threaten
rare natural habitats.
 But officials reviewing the Camisea loan applications, who asked not to
be identified, say the project is proceeding despite warnings that it may
run afoul of international environmental standards. Independent reviews
commissioned by project developers have also noted numerous
problems, including fuel spills, unauthorized pipeline route diversions,
and destructive erosion and landslides.
 This month, Peru's energy ministry fined the pipeline consortium $1
million for clearing too much land, including parts of a protected nature
preserve, and building unauthorized access roads. The companies
have appealed.
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
 Damage
"Even a carefully designed andto Rain Forest
well-managed Assailed
project -- which this, so far, is not -- will cause
permanent harm," said Leahy, the lead Democrat on the committee that gives U.S. funds to the
Inter-American Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank. "If it goes ahead, far more
needs to be done to mitigate the damage.“
 The resources of the Lower Urubamba River region, from its famed mahogany trees to exotic
plants used in pesticides, have long attracted outsiders. In the late 1800s, rubber barons raided
the area and enslaved its tribal people. Yet Camisea today remains as it was then -- mostly
inaccessible, except by river.
 In the 1980s, Royal Dutch Shell prospected for oil in a 5-million-acre area of Peru's Ucayali
Basin, slicing through the rain forest to conduct seismic tests. Poachers invaded, illegally
harvesting trees and importing influenza, whooping cough and other maladies that killed four
out of every 10 people in some indigenous tribes.
 Shell made a new effort in the 1990s, and tribal people objected, aided by environmental
groups such as the tiny California-based Amazon Watch and the larger OxFam International.
Shell tried to placate the opposition, paying $1 million for the region's first biodiversity review,
conducted by the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity
Program. Scientists noted the jungle's "nearly pristine condition" and its wealth of unique,
"unidentified species."
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's

Damage to Rain Forest Assailed
The scientists persuaded Shell not to build roads into the region and to adopt strict
policies against contact with indigenous people.
 But, in 1998, antitrust disputes with the government forced Shell to pull out of the project.
Indigenous leaders were elated. Today, they feel differently.
 "If we'd only known," said Lelis Rivera, director of the Center for Development of Amazon
Indigenous Peoples, or CEDIA, "we would, one thousand times over, have preferred
Shell.“
 In 2000, Peru awarded the Camisea extraction concession to a consortium led by Hunt
and Pluspetrol, and separately awarded the pipeline contract to another consortium
including Hunt, Pluspetrol and five other companies. The consortia pledged to adopt
Shell's social and environmental programs.
 But the government set a 2004 deadline for project completion, and the companies say
time pressures have caused them to cut corners. "We have challenges, big challenges --
environmental, social, also timing challenges," said Alejandro Segret, chief executive of
Transportadora de Gas del Peru (TGP), the pipeline consortium.
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
 Damage
TGP hired Knight to Rain
Piesold, a consulting firm, Forest Assailed
to monitor environmental compliance. The
firm's oversight reports criticized the consortium for failing to control erosion and for
violating a 50-foot width limit on the pipeline route. TGP officials last month said they had
hired 600 workers to control erosion that is leading to landslides. But the consulting firm's
latest report says problems continue; Knight Piesold is now calling for construction to stop
until erosion problems are fixed.
 Erosion has also affected the indigenous people, a report said.
 The pipeline right-of-way slices by the hamlet of Shimaa, home to 600 people. There,
erosion has muddied streams used by inhabitants for drinking and washing, said Rivera, the
director of CEDIA.
 Schoolchildren must trudge through the right-of-way, which turns into a mud pit when it
rains.
 Last summer, students blockaded a construction road to protest the lack of clean drinking
water. Supplies were delivered but remain inconsistent, Rivera said.
 Some environmental groups have called for an immediate construction halt. The World
Wildlife Fund, which ranks Camisea on its list of 200 places deserving conservation,
contends that "the starting point of forest destruction" will be the cleared pipeline paths that
will bring "increased deforestation and habitat loss, hunting for bushmeat and trade and
contamination of headwaters."
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's

Damage to Rain Forest Assailed
Another environmental coalition, including Friends of the Earth and Amazon Watch,
commissioned an independent analysis, which found that the project would have
"irreversible impacts on the biodiversity of this area and on the indigenous groups."
 Last month, during a meeting at the Inter-American Development Bank, conservation
groups aired a list of complaints: workers intruding on isolated tribes; pipeline route
changes without notice or review; erosion muddying rivers; declining fish and game
populations; and at least seven worker deaths.
 Environmentalists have also cited the drowning of a 7-year-old Machiguenga girl who was
swept up in the wake of two speeding Pluspetrol supply boats on the Urubamba River
near Kirigueti.
 "The project is past the point where it could ever have been brought into compliance with
internationally accepted environmental and indigenous-peoples standards, including
many of the IDB's own minimum standards," the groups said in a joint statement.
02-11-20 Washington Post: Gas Project's
 Damage
Jon Sohn, international to
analyst for Rain
Friends Forest
of the Earth, Assailed
said the connections are obvious to project
opponents. "Hunt and Halliburton were involved in their campaign fundraising, in their transition
policies and in Vice President Cheney's secret energy plan."
 Last month, Hunt Oil's chief executive, Ray L. Hunt, toured Camisea with Toledo, said Carlos
Garaycochea, Peru's vice minister of energy.
 The U.S. representative to the Inter-American Development Bank is Bush appointee Jose Forquet, a
Treasury official. Forquet mobilized Hispanic support for Bush's 2000 campaign and was a Bush
"Pioneer," an elite donor who raised at least $100,000. Forquet declined to comment.
 Until 2000, Cheney was Halliburton's chief executive. Ray Hunt was appointed to Halliburton's board
with Cheney's backing and still serves today.
 Hunt is also a longtime friend of and contributor to George W. Bush, who named him to the Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board. Hunt raised money for Bush's father in 1992 and was tapped by the
younger Bush in 2000 to chair the Republican National Committee's Victory Fund, to which he and his
wife gave $20,000.
 The Hunts have donated at least another $460,000 to Republican state campaigns, and their
company, its employees and the spouses of employees have given more than $1 million to GOP
causes since 1995, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
 Hunter Hunt, vice president of Hunt Oil and Ray Hunt's son, was Bush's "primary Policy Advisor
responsible for energy issues," according to Hunt Oil's Web site.
02-11-20
Washington Post:
Gas Project's
Damage to Rain
Forest Assailed
Gas natural y desarrollo
Escenarios de valor de
sustitución

 Valor bajo como  Valor alto como


sustituto de la sustituto del petróleo
hidroenergía

¿Se podría presentar la disyuntiva


de exportar vs. usar en el país?
El sentido de Camisea

Energía = capacidad de
cambio
Materia prima o poder de
cambio
TJ Reemplazo anual
60.E+04
Sector Residencial Comercial Sector Publico

50.E+04 Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Pesquero


Sector Minero Metalúrgico Sector Industrial
Sector Transporte Sector Eléctrico
40.E+04 Sector Exportación

30.E+04

20.E+04

10.E+04

00.E+00

2092
2097
2077

2087
2082
2022

2042
2047
2052
2032

2067
2002
2007
2012
2017

2027

2037

2057
2062

Años 2072
30.E+06
TJ Reemplazo anual acumulado
Sector Residencial Comercial Sector Publico
25.E+06 Sector Agropecuario Agroindustrial Sector Pesquero
Sector Minero Metalurgico Sector Industrial
Sector Transporte Sector Eléctrico
Sector Exportación
20.E+06

15.E+06

10.E+06

5.E+06

00.E+00

2097
2092
2077

2087
2082
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052
2057
2062
2067

Años 2072
Demanda de Gas Natural
Demanda : TWh
300 4,200

250 3,500

200 2,800

Reserva : TWh
150 2,100

100 1,400

50 700

0 0

2,052
2,034
2,022

2,025

2,028

2,031

2,037

2,040

2,049
2,016

2,019

2,043
2,004

2,007

2,010

2,013

2,046
Años
Sector Eléctrico Industrial Reservas Remanentes
Capacidad utilizada del gasoducto
TJ
30.E+04

20.E+04

10.E+04

00.E+00

2057
2002

2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047
2052

2062
2067
2072
2077
2082
2087
2092
2097
2007
2012
2017

-10.E+04

-20.E+04

-30.E+04

-40.E+04
Años
Reservas de gas natural
TJ
15.E+06

10.E+06

5.E+06

00.E+00
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047

2052
2057

2062
2067
2002

2072
2077
2007
2012

2017

2082
2087
2092

2097
-5.E+06

-10.E+06

-15.E+06

-20.E+06
Años
Factores de reemplazo
25%

FDR(%) anual (mercado interno)


20%
FDR(%) anual (mercado total)

15%
%

10%

5%

0%

2092
2097
2082
2087
2077
2052
2002
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037
2042
2047

2057
2062
2067
Años 2072
Hidrógeno

Hidrógeno
Hidrógeno

El gas natural
Carbón

Molécula de Metano
CH4

Hidrógeno
Gas Natural: reservas por región
(TPC)
6000

5000
Total

4000

3000
En desarrollo

2000

EE/ex-URSS
1000
Industrializado

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Gas Natural: reservas por región
al 2002 (TPC)
Oriente medio

EE/exURSS

África

Asia en desarrollo

Norteamérica

Centro y Sudamérica
Total mundial:
Europa Occidental 5451 millones
de pies cúbicos
Asia industrializado

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500


Gas Natural: reservas según
región (%)
100% 3.1%
4.6%
6.0% Otros
7.9% 9.4%

7.2%
Centro y
9.6%
sudamérica
75% 4.9%
11.1% Asia

13.1% Africa
36.2%
50%
19.8% Norteamérica

Oriente medio
25%
35.9%
31.0% Unión Soviética

0% *Reservas remanentes a
enero del 2002
5451 Trillones 5196 Trillones
de pies cúbicos * de pies cúbicos ** ** Reservas aún no
descubiertas, hacia el 2025
Gas Natural: importaciones netas de
6
Estados Unidos (TPC)
Histórico Proyecciones
5
Canadá
4

1
LNG
0
México

-1
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Gas Natural: consumo en 5
países europeos (TPC)
6
Histórico Proyecciones

5
Alemania
Holanda
4

Italia
3
Francia

2
Reino
Unido
1

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gas Natural: consumo en Centro y
Sudamérica (TPC)
20
Histórico Proyecciones

14.6
15

11.1

10
7.1

4.5
5
3.1 3.2
2
1.2
0.7

0
1970 1980 1990 1998 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020
Gas Natural: participación en el total de
energía (Asia y mundo)
Japón 1980
Australia 1999
2020
China

India

Corea del Sur

Resto de Asia

Mundo

0 10 20 30
Centro y Sudamérica: Gas natural e
hidroenergía (QUADs)
20
1999 2010 2020

15

10

0
Renovables Gas natural
Gas Natural:
gasoductos
en
Sudamérica
Estimación del Precio del GN
para un Cliente Industrial
Sin IGV Con IGV
US$/MBTU Participación US$/MBTU
Compra en boca
1.8 56% 2.12
de pozo
Transporte y
1.35 42% 1.59
Distribución en AP
Tarifa de distribución
0.07 2% 0.08
en BP
Total 3.22 100% 3.80
US$ 10 6 BTU

12
20

16

0
4
8

2
Cabón

Gas natural

4.1
4.4

P. Ind 6

Diesel N°2
11.4
10.7

GLP
Usuario Gran Industria
15.3

Electricidad
Costos para Generar
Electricidad
70
61.2
60 54.6
US$ 10 6 BTU

50
39.6
40
30 23.5
18
20 14.5
10
0
CC Gas CV TG Gas MD MD TG
Natural Carbón Natural Residual Diesel 2 Diesel 2
6

Tecnología - Combustible
Sector Transportes
Precios del GNC
PRECIO AL PUBLICO
US$/MBTU US$/m Participación

PG 1.80 0.06357 27%

Total T&D 1.76 0.06226 26%

Estación 3.18 0.11221 47%

Total 6.74 0.23804 100%

IGV 1.21 0.04285 18%

Al Público 7.95 0.28089 118%


Sector Transportes
Fuentes Disponibles
20 18.4
16.3
16
12.7
US$ 10 BTU

12
6

7.9
8

0
GNC* Diesel N°2 GLP Gasolinas
Transporte del
Gas
Gaseoductos y GNL
Economía de escala del ducto

Diámetro Capacidad Costo ($/mcm)


anual /1000 km

900 mm 10x109 m3 0.43

1540 mm 25x109 m3 0.35

Si se incrementa el diámetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual sube


en 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilómetros recorridos
incrementa en menos de 70%.
Economía de escala del ducto

Diámetro Capacidad Costo ($/103cuft)


anual /103 km

36 pulg 420x109 m³ 0.0122

60 pulg 875x109 m³ 0.0099


Si se incrementa el diámetro del tubo en 55%, la capacidad anual sube
en 108% y el costo unitario por millar de kilómetros recorridos
incrementa en menos de 70%.
Estatus de la capacidad mundial de GNL:
Existente, Planeado y Potencial hacia 1996
106 Millones de PC

Capacidad Expansión Nuevos En Negociación


Existente Proyectos en n/ Capacidad
construcción Propuesta
CADENA DE COSTOS DEL GNL
2.00

1.80
Nota: Se excluye el costo fijo del gas
1.60

1.40
US$/Millón BTU

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
Licuefacción Operación y Project Transporte
Procesamien Terminal de
to del gas maintenimiento Almacenamientocost to marítimo
de las importación
y exportación liquefaction
instalaciones
and export
Costos indicativos de cada etapa de una cadena de suministro de GNL (LNG).
Base: 4.5 millones ton/año de exportación e importación, con 3200 km de distancia (ida), por 20
años
Geopolítica
“Chile en los últimos 100 años de
enclaustramiento al que nos ha sometido no
ha dado ninguna seña de considerar la
posibilidad de una salida al mar. ¿Cuánta
humillación tenemos que sufrir para entender
que a Chile no le interesa el desarrollo
económico o acceso boliviano al Pacifico?”
Inversión e impacto en costos
Participación
en el costo
Inversión
del GNL
Actividad (en US$
entregado
109 )
(US
$/MMBtu)
Producción de gas 1-2 0.5 - 1.0

Planta de Licuefacción 2-3 1.7 - 2.4

Transporte de GNL 1-2 0.8 - 1.6

Terminal Receptor y
0.4 - 1 0.5 - 1.0
Regasificador

Total 4-8 3.5 - 6.0


Muchas gracias