Intelligent Maintenance System

NSF I/UCRC since 2000
Advanced Prognostics for Smart Systems

Methodology, Tools, and Applications
Jay Lee
Ohio Eminent Scholar and L.W. Scott Alter Chair Professor Univ. of Cincinnati Jay.lee@uc.edu & Director NSF Industry/University Cooperative Research Center on Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS) www.imscenter.net
Outline
Business and Productivity Models Prognostics Design: Methodology and Tools Design of Prognostics Platform for Various Applications Design of Smart Service Systems
Outline
IMS Vision and Mission Statement

To enable products and systems to achieve and sustain near near-zero breakdown performance, performance, and ultimately transform machine condition data to useful information for improved productivity and asset utilization.
The IMS Consortium
Common Unmet Needs in Future Maintenance and Service

Intelligent Monitoring, Predict and Prevent for Guaranteed Sustainability Self-Assessment Autonomous Information Flow from Field (user) To Service/Business Systems Only Handle Information Once (OHIO)
Operations Intelligence
Predict, Prioritize, Optimize, and Plan Maintenance Scheduling For Near-Zero Downtime and All-Time Readiness
Outline
Service Design using System-ofSystem Approach

Closed-Loop Loop Life Cycle Design
Design for Reliability and Serviceability Health Monitoring Product or System Sensors & Embedded In Use Intelligence
Near 0 Downtime
Just-in-Time Service
Product Center
Product Redesign
Degradation Assessment
(Feature Monitoring)
Web-enabled Monitoring & Prognostics
Smart Design
Self-Maintenance Redundancy Active Passive
Communications Tether-Free (Bluetooth) Internet TCP/IP
Decision Support Tools Condition-based for Optimized Planning & Maintenance Scheduling
(CBM)
p Services Responsive Asset Optimization
Enhanced E h d Six-Sigma Design
Health Information
System Instrumentation Approach

Principal Components Performance Feature
Health Feature Radar Chart 1 Bearing

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Prediction of Machine Performance Life

7.5 7 6.5 Principal Component 6
Normal Behavior
Most Recent Behavior r
5.5 5
4.5 4 3.5 3 200 210 220 230 Actual Data Prediction Actual Data Prediction Uncertainty 240 250 260 Cycle Number 270 280
Tools for Autonomic Computing
User input
Statistical Pattern Recognition

What?
Example of two dimensions space
Failure Mode #1 Safe operation Failure Mode #2
Analytical comparisons of feature distributions

Feat ture f2
When?

Features are (approximately) Gaussian Stable operation without too many impacts
Cluster displacement
Possible application: pp
0
Cluster distribution 1
Feature f1
Repeatable processes and operations
CV
Current C t time
0.5
Evaluation the overlap area yields the CV

Time
Methodology
Streamline
Sort, Filtering, Prioritize Data Reduce Sensor Data Sets & PCA Correlate and Digest Relevant Data Assess Health Degradation Predict Performance Trends Diagnose Potential Failure (Prognostics) Embedded Agent (hierarchical and distributed) Only Handle Information Once Tether-free Communication Decision Support Tools Systematic Prognostics Selection Reconfigurable Hardware Platform Toolbox Maintenance M i t Information I f ti Standardization St d di ti Embedded Self-Learning & Knowledge Mgt. Closed-Loop Life Cycle Design User-Friendly Prognostics Deployment
Smart Processing Synchronize
Standardize
Sustain
12
Data Streamlining
Streamline
Maintenance Database Data Cleaning, Filtering Fil i and d Sorting S i No Maintenance Record Expert k knowledge l d
Identify Critical Components
Data Collection
Expert Knowledge
St d di Standardize
Data Cleaning, Dimension Reduction Determine a Clean and Reduced Data Set
Sustain
IMS Methodology: 5S Approach

Streamline
Sort, Filtering, Prioritize Data Reduce Sensor Data Sets & PCA Correlate and Digest Relevant Data Assess Health Degradation g Predict Performance Trends Diagnose Potential Failure (Prognostics) Embedded Agent (hierarchical system) Tether-free Communication Only Handle Information Once (OHIO) Decision Support Tools Systematic y Prognostics g Implementation p Reconfigurable Hardware and Software Platform Maintenance Information Standardization Embedded Knowledge Mgt. for Self-Learning Closed-Loop Product Life Cycle Design User-Friendly Prognostics Deployment
Standardize
Sustain
Watchdog Agent Toolbox

Signal Processing & Feature Extraction Time-frequency / Time-frequency moments Wavelets/Wavelet packet energies / Wavelet moments Autoregressive modeling / AR model roots Expert extracted features Fast Fourier Transform
1
Performance Assessment Logistic Regression
Performance Prediction ARMA Prediction M t h Matrix Match M ti
Statistical Pattern Recognition Feature Map Pattern Matching CMAC Network Pattern Match
CV
Elman Recurrent Neural Network Fuzzy Logic Health Diagnosis Support Vector Machine Hidden Markov Model
CV
0.5
?
Time
Bayesian Belief Network
Information Delivery
Results of Smart Prognostics Tools for Asset Health Information
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Confidence Value for performance degradation assessment (0-1)
Health Radar Chart Health Map p for for multiple potential issues components and pattern degradation classification
monitoring
Risk Radar Chart to Prioritize Maintenance Decision
Results of Smart PrognosticsTools for Asset Health Information
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
monitoring
Field Service Application: KONE Testbed

Equipment Elevator Door (Controller) E Encoder d
IIS web
Remote Monitoring
WAGO I/O
server
Web Browser
OPC Server
iCONICS Genesis32 (OPC client)
Business Applications
Bridge
Watchdog
Database
iCONICS GenBroker (COM over tcp/ip)
D2B
A Case Study: Elevator Door Testbed
Performance Indicators Cycle time of the elevator door Maximal speed of the elevator dooe
Normal Operation CV = 97.6%
Increased Friction CV=70.3%
Normal Operation CV=97.6%
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
monitoring
10
ESMD Chillers FCFT Predictive Maintenance for Hong Kong International Airport Control Tower (May 2007)
Project Background
Chiller at Control Tower of H.K. Int. Airport
11
Hardware Setup
Chiller with 6 Accelerometers
Details: IMI 623C01, high-freq., ceramic shear ICP accel, 100mV/g, 0.8 to 15k Hz, top exit, 2-pin conn. From: S&V Samford Instruments Ltd.
35m BNC Cable x 6
NI PXI Data Logging System Johnson Controls OPC Server

3m LAN cable
Details: - PXI-4472, 24 Bit, 102.4 kS/s, 8 Inputs, 110 dB Dynamic Range - 6 SMB to BNC connectors, SMB-100, SMB to BNC Female - Communicate with Data Logging Server through NI MXI-4 technology
3m copper cable
Data logging Server

Details: - Dell Dimension(TM) E520 - Data Logging System
Raw Data
Vibration signals OPC (OLE for Process Control) Data
12
Fixed Cycle Feature Test (FCFT)

How to convert raw data to information? Why FCFT? What is FCFT?
T1
T2
T3
T transition of the load change
FCFT Radar Chart
Data ---- Information EMSD vibration signals on 2007-05-21 at 16-03-54 ----------- Normal
13
FCFT Radar Chart
EMSD vibration signals on 2007-05-22 at 10-57-04 ----------- Normal
FCFT Radar Chart
Some mechanical faults happened at that time.
EMSD vibration signals on 2007-05-14 at 11-22-18 ----------- Abnormal
14
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
monitoring
Komatsu Earth Moving Equipment Field Services (Komatsu Engineer on UC Campus)
15
Komatsus Remote Maintenance

Komatsu Ltd. has developed the necessary infrastructure for collecting data from individual construction machines, from the place of operation via the user
Help desk
Failure History data Failure code, Occurrence date & time, Repaired date & time Trend Analysis Data Data D t f from sensors ( (as max/ / ave/ / min i every 20 operating hours) Others data Load meter, Running time of engine, etc.
Mo de m Bank
Mo de m Bank
Mo de m Bank
Focus on Smart Asset Business

Failure prediction & diagnosis failures
to reduce down time, maintenance & support costs
by detecting incipient degradations of all components by identifying and isolating failure critical components
Degradation monitoring of engine and transmission systems

to estimate lifetime with higher accuracy to t prevent t or delay d l failures f il to expand components overall life
using appropriate and key data using features for key performance index
16
Komatsu Approach
to increase quality of data in Komatsu database to enable more advanced predictive maintenance decision making base on analytical reliability models to achieve intelligent maintenance excellence and to implement knowledge based decision making approach
Sensors
IMS Watchdog TM
KOMATSU On Board Computer

Monitoring & Aid View to Decision
Engine DT09XXN Engine DT09XYH Engine DT43XZA Engine DT77YVP
Replacement, High priority Replacement, High priority Maintenance required Plan replacement in 1500 h Good, 5000 h remaining
Engine Comp.A,C Comp.D No change
IMS Embedded Smart Software Tools

ENGINEERING KNOWLEDGE AND DATA ACQUISITION FROM THE SYSTEM
Customer Appliance
Komatsu WebCARE
Komatsu Engineers
Signal Processing & Feature Extraction
Data Preparing (Filtering Outlier estimation)
B Group Methods
Autoregressive Modeling Data Handling Based Feature Extraction
Health Assessment & Prediction
C
Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)
D
Fuzzy Logic (FL) Based Decision Making
E
Match Matrix & ARMA Modeling
F Human Machine Interface
AUTOMATIC AID TO DIAGNOSIS DECISION MAKING
AUTOMATIC AID TO PROGNOSIS DECISION MAKING
Remaining Lifetime Prediction Comparison and Predictive Maintenance Planning
17
Decision Support Tools for Smart Service Recommendation

FL or Reliability based Prognostics
P C S Prognostic
Failure Mode Effects & Risk Assessment Tools

System ref. Engine ref. Failure Mode Causes Effect on the Component D system
Wear Cracking FM 2 Cable disc. Sensor fails Injector Machine B Transmit. BY Derailment Wear of the cabin Cracking Sensor fails D: Detectability C: Cost P: Probability S: Severity
Machines Machine A Engine AX FM 1
Fall of the cabin
Fall of the cabin
Cylinder Inlet Valve R Inlet Valve L Injector Shaft Gears Bearing
0.6
2 H Change engine
0.9
1 M Change Bearing
BBN output
Decision Aid
Autonomic Service Logistics

1 0.8 0.6 04 0.4 0.2 0
Bearing
Logistic Information
Engine/Asset Location Components Availability Review Previous Maintenance Actions Recommend and Assign Right Technician Estimate Maintenance cost
Valve
Cylinder
18
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
monitoring
Bearing Fault Background

Normal Roller Inner-race Outer-race
Outer + inner Outer-race Outer + inner Outer race +roller + roller + roller
z Normal condition z Outer-race failure z Roller failure z Inner-race failure

Drawing courtesy of Wikipedia
19
Feature Extraction
FFT (Fast Fourier Transform)

Overall acceleration, velocity, or displacement, amplitude peaks at 1X RPM, 2X RPM, 3X RPM, BPFO, BPFI, FTF and BSF Harmonics and sidebands, RMS and kurtosis
Health Assessment - Multi-fault Data
Normal Condition
Inner- race + Roller
Outerrace Outer + Inner Race SOM accomplishes two things: reduces dimensions Roller Outer + Inner + Roller and displays similarities. Inner- race Outer Race + Roller
20

Streamline
Standardize
Sustain
Synchronization System Structure

Data flow Health Information Internet
Embedded side
Remote side
......
Raw data Industrial Field
Health Information Display ATC Status Display User Discrete Event Interf Display ace Algorithm Modification Error Log Database Data Format
21

Streamline
Standardize
Sustain
Watchdog Agent Software Platform

Executive Agent
Task Scheduler
Engine
Algorithm Selector Health Diagnosis Performance Assessment Database Agent
ISO 13374 / Processing Task OSA-CBM Feature Selection
Algorithm Toolbox Communications Toolbox
Performance Prediction Services External Devices
44
22
Reconfigurable Prognostics Platform

D2B Machine Level Connectivity
Sensor Fusion Feature Extraction Performance Assessment Autonomous Learning Prediction and Prognostics
Decision Support Tools D2B Business Level Connectivity
IMS Prognostics Platform

Streamline
Standardize
Sustain
23
Next Step Close the Loop

Closed-Loop Loop Life Cycle Design
Design for Reliability and Serviceability Health Monitoring Product or System Sensors & Embedded In Use Intelligence
Just-in-Time Service
Product Center
Product Redesign
Watchdog Agent Degradation Assessment

(Feature Monitoring)
Web-enabled Monitoring & Prognostics
Smart Design
Self-Maintenance Redundancy Active Passive
Communications Tether-Free (Bluetooth) Internet TCP/IP
Decision Support Tools Condition-based for Maintenance Schedule
Maintenance
(CBM) Synchronization Service Asset Optimization
Enhanced E h d Six-Sigma Design
Health Information
Watchdog Agent is Trademarks of IMS Center
Int. IMS Project PROMISE (Product Embedded Information System for Service and EOL)
1. Initial product info is written in the product embedded device
Product delivery
Producers KPDM
Embedded device 3. Wireless bluetooth connection between mobile device and product embedded device
Bluetooth ?
3. Wireless Internet connection between mobile device and producers KPDM
Internet
2. A certified agent for service or EOL operations
4. Update information in the embedded device and in the producers KPDM
Service & maintenance
EOL
24
Outline
Prognostics Design ad Development

Streamline
Standardize
Sustain
5 0
25
Commercial Hardware -1
High Performance and Rugged
UNO-2160 Watchdog Agent System
Fanless Celeron 400MHz CPU 256/512MB SDRAM 9 30VDC power input i t 9-30VDC -10 to 50C operating temp HardwareStorage Watchdog Timer Non-volatile Media CompactFlash 2.5 HDD Battery Backed RAM
Built-in Comm. Interfaces

2x Ethernet ports 4x Serial ports 2x USB ports 1x Printer port
Robust Embedded OS
Windows CE.NET Windows XP embedded
Expansion Capability
1x PC Card slot (PCMCIA) 2x PC/104 slots
Commercial Hardware -2
I/O
CompactRIO reconfigurable embedded system Analog Input/Output, Digital Input/Output (Low / high speed, simultaneous / multiplexed) 200 MHz Pentium Class 64 MB or 512 MB Flash 4-slot or 8-slot 1 M Gate or 3M Gate FPGA Standard connector depends on the module Options: Strain Relief Connector Block, Custom Cable, etc.
Real-time controller

Reconfigurable Chassis Connectivity

26
Watchdog Agent Tools on LabVIEW
IMS Watchdog Agent in LabVIEW
Performance Assessment
Logistic Regression
Feature Map
CMAC Pattern Match
Performance Prediction
Match Matrix Bayesian Networks
Neural Network
Health Diagnosis
Hidden Markov Model
27
IMS Plug-n-Prognose System

+ Watchdog Agent Hardware Platform Toolbox Robust Health Information
Radar Chart for Components Health Monitoring
Data
Confidence Value for Performance Degradation Monitoring
Watchdog Agent Platform
Health Map for Pattern Classification
55
Embed Prognostics in Controller
28
Validated Hardware
Allen-Bradley ControlLogix/1756 Rack with Logix 5550 Special Application Module for ControlLogix Intel Pentium 266MHz CPU, 128MB of RAM and Windows XP Professional as operating system Communication between 56SAM module and processor is realized over the backplane of the rack
5 7
Smart Machine Testbed (IMS/TechSolve in Cincinnati, OH)
29
Smart Self-Maintenance Machines

MTHI MTHI
0. 925
0. 560
MTHI
0. 690
MTHI
0. 751
MTHI
M1 M6 M2
MFPI
Product Quality Energy Downtime
Constraints
1. 2. 3. 4. Schedule Budget Quality Tolerances Etc.
MFHI
0.745
M5
M3
Readiness Flexibility
Maintenance
M4
Prognostics Tools for Vehicle Telematics

Oil pressure and Oil levels Fuel level Odometer Od t reading di Vibration and Acoustic data Air Pressure in tire and Flat tire Condition of air bags Box itself Different points on engine and transmission Anti brake system
30
Smart Bridge Health Prognostics

Feature extraction Obtain data from the critical locations
Historical Data Working Condition
Features
Embedded Sensors
Health assessment
In feature space Normal Behavior
Beam 1 Beam 2
Most Recent B h i Behavior
Support 2 Support 1
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
Truss 1 Truss 2
Visualization by performance chart
Future Combat Systems (FCS) and Needs

IMS Smart Watchdog Agent Prognostics Maintenance Remote diagnostics Platform L i ti Synchronization Logistics S h i ti
Condition-based Needs
31
Self-Maintenance Systems
Performance Degradation Model Expert Knowledge
Assessment Sensors
IMS Watchdog Agent
Prognostics Diagnostics Decision Support Tool
Degradation Information
Near-Zero-Downtime Service Autonomous Service Request for Spare Parts Asset Optimization
Monitoring of Standard Components, e.g.,
Components, e.g.,
32
Outline
Service Needs for Tomorrow:
Service is a Customer-Intensive System Service using a System Instrumentation (Smart Agent) Service through Smart Operation Analytics Service for Knowledge Management Business Service to Avoid Potential Issues for Customers.
J. Lee, NSF Symposium on Technology Management in the Service Sector Portland, OR, August 5, 2007 (Co-Sponsored by IBM Service Science)
33
Transformation of Service Intelligence
Infotronics Technologies
Synchronized Value Chain Flow (Cash Flow)
Conclusions
34
Our Approach Value Flow

Risk
Watchdog Agent IMS Platform Decision Support Tools

Validation Research Tools (Shared Tools & Knowledge) Company p y Designated Projects and Implementations
IMS Projects Value
Testbeds
Membership
Contracts
Membership Value through Leveraged Partnerships
Company Members
Membership and Partnerships
Testbeds Testbeds and and Projects Projects
25:1
IMS Methodologies and Enabling Technologies
35
IMS Value Proposition

Rapid Prognostics Design and Deployment
RISK & COST
Today
Value
TIME
RISK & COST
Saving
Risk and Cost Reduction Strategy
TIME
IMS Global Research Partnerships

Lulea Univ Sweden TU-Berlin Germany
EPFL Switzerland
Beijing Univ of Chemical S&T (BUCT) Univ. of Tokyo Japan Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ., China Cranfield Univ UK SIMTech Singapore UTT France CRC Integrated Asset Eng. QUT, Australia ITRI & PMC Taiwan H.K. PolyU
Univ. of Toronto, Canada
SENAI/UFRGS Brazil
36
Thank You !
For More Information Please visit: www.imscenter.net & www.dominantinnovation.com
37

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NSF I/UCRC since 2000

Advanced Prognostics for Smart Systems

IMS Vision and Mission Statement

The IMS Consortium

Common Unmet Needs in Future Maintenance and Service

Service Design using System-ofSystem Approach

Web-enabled Monitoring & Prognostics

Self-Maintenance Redundancy Active Passive

Communications Tether-Free (Bluetooth) Internet TCP/IP

Enhanced E h d Six-Sigma Design

System Instrumentation Approach

Health Feature Radar Chart 1 Bearing

Prediction of Machine Performance Life

Most Recent Behavior r

Tools for Autonomic Computing

Statistical Pattern Recognition

Analytical comparisons of feature distributions

Repeatable processes and operations

Evaluation the overlap area yields the CV

Smart Processing Synchronize

Smart Processing Synchronize

Identify Critical Components

IMS Methodology: 5S Approach

Smart Processing Synchronize

Watchdog Agent Toolbox

Performance Assessment Logistic Regression

Performance Prediction ARMA Prediction M t h Matrix Match M ti

Bayesian Belief Network

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Confidence Value for performance degradation assessment (0-1)

Risk Radar Chart to Prioritize Maintenance Decision

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Confidence Value for performance degradation assessment (0-1)

Risk Radar Chart to Prioritize Maintenance Decision

Field Service Application: KONE Testbed

iCONICS Genesis32 (OPC client)

iCONICS GenBroker (COM over tcp/ip)

A Case Study: Elevator Door Testbed

Normal Operation CV = 97.6%

Increased Friction CV=70.3%

Normal Operation CV=97.6%

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Confidence Value for performance degradation assessment (0-1)

Risk Radar Chart to Prioritize Maintenance Decision

Chiller at Control Tower of H.K. Int. Airport

35m BNC Cable x 6

NI PXI Data Logging System Johnson Controls OPC Server

Data logging Server

Vibration signals OPC (OLE for Process Control) Data

Fixed Cycle Feature Test (FCFT)

T transition of the load change

FCFT Radar Chart

FCFT Radar Chart

EMSD vibration signals on 2007-05-22 at 10-57-04 ----------- Normal

FCFT Radar Chart

Some mechanical faults happened at that time.

EMSD vibration signals on 2007-05-14 at 11-22-18 ----------- Abnormal

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Confidence Value for performance degradation assessment (0-1)

Risk Radar Chart to Prioritize Maintenance Decision

Komatsu Earth Moving Equipment Field Services (Komatsu Engineer on UC Campus)

Komatsus Remote Maintenance

Focus on Smart Asset Business

Degradation monitoring of engine and transmission systems