Kamila Podlowska

ID 074020571

SBC711 Tropical Ecology and Conservation

The past, present and future impacts of

climate change on biodiversity in the
tropics.

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 One of the things seriously affecting tropical regions and their biodiversity is climate
change. The biggest impact on the climate is thought to have human, mainly due to his use of
fossil fuels. Burning the fossil fuels and releasing large amounts of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases has a serious influence on, what is called, global warming i.e. rising
temperatures. The other changes being included in global climate change are wind and rainfall
patterns.
During the past 100 years, atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and other trace gases
were constantly and steadily increasing primarily due to burning coal, oil and natural gas. Levels
of CO2 have risen from 290 to 370 parts per million (ppm) and scientists expect that the number
will double latter in the second half of the twenty-first century. Another thing that participates in
nowadays’ situation are forest clearing for farmlands, logging and burning firewood for heating
and cooking. The tropical forest deforestation and its degradation are assessed for around 15-40%
of involvement in carbon dioxide rises. In 1997 (El Niño year), large increase in CO2
concentration was noted due to forest and peat burning in Indonesia. However, deforestation not
only releases CO2 but also other very strong gases i.e. methane and nitrous oxide, estimated for 6-
25% of contribution.
Based on many researches, scientists think that the greenhouse gases already started to affect our
planet and its climate, especially looking at the temperature, which increased during the last
century by around 0.6˚C. It is also believed that this is not the end, as the temperature just started
to rise and over the next 100 years it will be higher by another 1.4-5.8˚C. However, if all
countries agreed to reduce their emission of greenhouse gases, it could make the input of the CO2
lower. It is predicted that the places, which will be the most affected by the temperature increase
are going to be at high latitudes and over large continents. Over most continental areas where the
tropical forests appear, there is expected rise in temperature by 2-4˚C. Other weather extremes
are awaited as well, such as floods, hurricanes, droughts, which eventually will cause big
destructions and devastation.
There is already proof for the climate to affect tropical communities and diversity i.e. trees have
been increased their growth, mortality and recruitment rates over the last few decades. The reason
for that are most probably changes (increase) in temperature. There is also the evidence for the
lowland rain forest plants to grow at their maximum temperature tolerance, what means that
further increases in temperature will cause possibly extinction of most of the temperature-

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sensitive species. Very important fact is that even the smallest increase in temperature will reduce
plants’ ability of the carbon uptake and their growth, by intensification of the nighttime
respiration.
Another issue here will be the rainfall i.e. its lack in many places. Although it is hard to predict
rainfall pattern in the future centuries, it is very likely that tropical areas will be drier and
therefore more vulnerable to fire. The earlier forests will turn into open woodlands and
grasslands.
The tropical diversity will be strongly affected by the global warming. Species will survive if
they show ability to migrate to higher altitudes or will be able to live in riverine or wetland
habitats. However, species that synchronize their reproduction pattern with the seasonal weather
may find it hardest to persist. Example of the place can be Southeast Asia, where most of the
flowering dipterocarp species could be disrupted. In this situation not only plants can be affected,
but also animal species, which depend on this flora and the cycle. Climate change can also really
affect forests situated in the mountains, as it is very probable that the zonation of the vegetation
there is strongly correlated with the temperature.
Most mobile species will migrate due to climatic changes but not many of them can pass the
migration routes that are blocked, or barriers formed by human i.e. agricultural or urban areas.
In the past, climate went through many changes as well as tropical rainforests. Tropical
ecosystems, especially the evolution and extinction that had place within tropical biodiversity,
have been formed by climate change throughout the past i.e. geological time. During the last
glacial, especially in its final stage (from 18000 to 12500 yr BP) the areas over the equator and
tropics have faced much drier and colder conditions than we have nowadays. The belt of
rainforest was stretched from climatically stable area of equator to tropical mountains. Later
however, in early Holocene i.e. 10000 to 5000 yr BP, climate has changed and conditions got
wetter. That gave opportunity for tropical forests to expand.
The information on climatic change also involve studies on how the lake levels, relict and sand
dune systems, fossil glacial and periglacial features in tropical highlands has changed. The best
and most completed record of the tropics in late Quaternary has Africa, where most of it is based
on geomorphology. Looking at the lake level evidence, it was noticed that there were five
climatic phases. During phases A and B (last glacial) climate was colder and more arid. The
droughts here were the reason why tropical and equatorial lakes were low and later very low.

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After phase C (transitional), the climate got wetter and warmer – phase D (Holocene). Due to this
change, the areas of rainforests got larger and wider. After 5000 yr BP there was an extensive
spread of humans. Because of that it is not easy to say what exactly influenced the decline in
forest cover i.e. whether the control over it had drier climate or anthropogenic forest clearance
and use of fire.
There are five major drivers that had influenced changes in the climate over the past millions of
years. First are tectonic plates, which were responsible for continental drifts i.e. redirecting
oceanic currents, modifying global rainfall patterns and winds, and also deforming terrestrial
topography. Second very important thing was the impact coming from asteroids and comets or
volcanic activities, which could release vast quantities of greenhouse gases such as methane,
carbon dioxide or water vapour but also cause cooling through global dimming from particulates
and sulphur. Another driver was Milankovitch cycles, which were causing cyclic variation in the
amount of sunlight that reaches the earth’s surface. This is believed to be the reason for ice ages
and big changes in sea levels in the Pleistocene. Other, responsible for the changes were algae
and green plants i.e. organisms being able to photosynthesise, thus having an impact on
atmospheric CO2. The last driver was the variation in solar output.
However, unlike in our present situation, past climatic shifts were caused by long-term changes
to earth’s environment. They were progressing very slowly and because of that organisms had
opportunity to adjust. Climate alteration has stimulated many organisms such as tropical coral
reefs and reef-builders. Over the past millions of years they came across many dramatic boosts
and declines in size and number. There was a time reefs were nearly absent and extinct (late
Cambrian and Devonian, early Jurassic and Tertiary), appearing only in couple of places.
However at other times, they were fully developed (mid-Cambrian, Permian, late Cretaceous and
present days). Many studies show that tropical seas are the “cradle” of global diversity and the
changes that it have faced, formed tropical biota we can see today. Nevertheless, tropical
rainforests show very similar dynamics as earlier mentioned coral reefs, where over the past 350
million years these forests have been the dominant tropical terrestrial biome.
Recent climate change is irresistible, however now, there is very high probability that the
reason for that is human and pollution, and not like it was in the past (BP), where it was caused
by nature itself. There are many ways how the global warming can seriously affect our planet and
species. First are changes in species densities. Later, there are changes expected in behaviour i.e.

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seasonal cycles on biological phenomena such as flowering, breeding and migration. Climatic
changes may also affect body size, and also shifts in genetic frequencies as well as reduction in
genetic diversity. The biggest problem we and mostly species are facing nowadays is that the
changes come much more rapidly than it was happening in the past, and also the fact that human
made so many modifications in the landscapes that it will be hard for organisms to disperse for
them to remain in their favourable conditions. Such a rapid climatic changes will make it difficult
for many species to adopt via natural selection or range shifts. This is one of the most serious
conservation issues facing tropical species over coming years and centuries. The other two are
species loss and habitat degradation.
Species from higher elevations are strongly vulnerable to climate change. Reason here is
degradation and loss of some specific microclimates, and also influx from lower altitudes and
adaptation of invasive species, which will have now better opportunity to take over the habitat
and will also be a big competition to other species. They may cause and introduce many different
diseases and parasites in the habitats, thus extinction of other native species. As the temperature
rises, invasive species can expand their altitudinal range. Moreover, the parasites (e.g. mosquito
vectors for malaria) and many diseases can also spread due to modifications in seasonality, which
are predicted from climate change. Moreover, there is a big likelihood that due to increases in
CO2, the cloud contact with high-elevation habitats will be reduced. This is going to affect the
evapotranspiration, which will increase in rate in tropical montane forests. The threat here is
going to be put on these important and unique endemic ecosystems.
It was noticed that rapid extinction of amphibian had place straight away after relatively warm
year, what means that these organisms were very sensitive to rise in temperature. In Mexico there
are two species of salamanders i.e. Pseudoeurycea cephalica and P. leprosa that are highly
vulnerable to global warming due to their limited dispersal capacity and deforestation, which is
taking place in the region they habituate. What is most likely to be affected, is their distribution.
One of the tropical forests, of which the distribution varied over the last 65 million years, and was
affected by climatic changes, is rainforest in Southeast Asian region. However, it is not well
known how much and to what extends exactly its biodiversity has been and is being affected by
global warming. Looking at the two Southeast Asian avifauna guides (1975 and 2000) it was
found that 94 resident bird species show changes in their distribution. The elevation–related
changes occurred even in generalists’ habitats, which are basically insensitive to land changes.

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This means that not only loss of habitat could cause these changes (elevation shifts). Another
place, where the amphibian distributional changes were recorded, is rainforest of north
Queensland in Australia. Also in Costa Rica, probably due to climate warming, many birds from
lower altitudes were noted to shift towards higher altitudes. If it is about forest itself, there are
predictions that in response to climatic changes (increases in CO2 and temperature) many species
will try to find more suitable growing conditions.
Next important problem concerning changes in tropical biodiversity is connected with coral
bleaching i.e. process, in which the coral animal host expels its symbiotic algae following
changes in the physical quality of seawater. For the changes in temperature, salinity, greater
exposure to the air due to tidal alteration, higher solar radiation, sedimentation and reduced light
penetration, are mostly responsible global warming and climate variation.
In 1987, in the Caribbean, extreme bleaching had place. As it appeared, it was probably due to
physiological bleaching, caused by variation in water temperature and solar radiation, as the
period of maximal temperatures was much longer than previous years. Another event of
bleaching had place in 1997-98 (El Niño year) and it was on the world scale. Reason for that
were sea levels, which were below average and due to algal stress bleaching in the exposed reefs.
Extreme events such as El Niño years are really big threat to the coral reefs in the whole wide
world, as there is a huge probability that the stress will be continued as a result of global climate
change.
There is a lot of evidence from the past on what dramatic effects may have a move of polar ice
sheets on sea levels. In the tropics, many low-lying countries such as Bangladesh, Guyana, the
Maldives, Tuvalu, Tonga and Kiribati are facing already coastal flooding under normal climatic
conditions. However, now they are also vulnerable to the events such as cyclones due to the
climatic changes. In addition to that and erosion, which would have place due to rapid rises of sea
level, it will also increase the depth of water above coral reefs and sea grass beds. This would
automatically affect the photosynthetic capacity of symbiotic algae in corals and sea grass species
themselves. The problem is that if the water depth increases faster than corals or sea grass can
grow, then it could mean that they would face the extinction mostly due to starvation.
Earlier mentioned tropical cyclones are also one of the weather extremes. They may have short-
or long-term effects on rainforest structure and its species diversity, in the areas they had place.
The character of cyclone impact depends on its frequency and intensity.

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The global warming i.e. increased temperature will also affect the freshwater systems. The threat
is that they will start to dry out, especially in drier areas such as tropical Africa and South
America, due to increased evaporation rates and also increased human demand for water.
Furthermore, as big paradox, regions, which due to global warming should receive more rainfall,
may suffer from enormous droughts and soil erosion. This is because the rain that is predicted is
going to be more frequent and in form of downpours. There is not many moderate rainfalls
expected, what will have its result in enlarged flooding and massive runoffs, as the soil will not
be able to assimilate the water in this form. Rising temperatures and high evapotranspiration rates
will additionally reduce water availability to plants. This may amplify the risk of fire during dry
and low-water periods.
Changes in equatorial rain-forest areas with the few long-term rainfall series are not very well
documented but appear to be slightly different in character than in tropical latitudes. Annual
rainfall at most equatorial stations has fluctuated much less than at tropical regions, but obviously
there were also exceptions. The Sandakan (Sabah) history of droughts since 1879 is very
interesting from the point of view of ecological consequences of the drought, which had place in
1982-83, in eastern Borneo. This brought large-scale death of canopy trees. Between 1885 and
1915, 4 serious droughts had place. They lasted 4 months or even longer. Similar dry periods also
occurred between 1968 and 1990, but then there were five of them. The sternest drought appeared
however in 1903, when it persisted over 6 months with less than 100 mm rainfall. All this caused
relatively low amount of old, very large trees, and the large number of young and small canopy
trees. In the period of 50 years (1916-1967), between these remarkable stages, there was no
drought at all. However, this is not enough to heal the scars that were made before, by the
previous devastating dry periods.
Another thing that should be mentioned and considered is forest clearance and climate change,
what may become a next threat to tropical diversity. The relationship between deforestation and
climate change is not fully understood yet. However, there are few probable ways in which rain-
forest clearance may play a role in global climatic change. Firstly, it could affect the composition
of the atmosphere and have an influence on evaporation-rainfall patterns through its impact on
the hydrological cycle, what tends to increase temperatures and lower rainfall, thus bring more
regular and serious droughts. Furthermore, it could cause changes in surface albedo. Clouds
above rainforests absorb large quantities of solar radiation. However, logging reduces cloud

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cover, as the evapotranspiration rates fall, what may lead to increase in earth’s albedo.
Deforestation might also affect atmospheric turbulence by causing changes in the aerodynamic
roughness of the vegetation canopy. However, the major concern is the effect on carbon dioxide
concentrations, as the tropical rain forests are both most important user (photosynthesis) and
producer (respiration and plant decay processes). It is believed that logging would increase
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to burning of the biomass and decay, and at the same time
reduce the rate with which it is removed from the atmosphere as a result of lower transpiration
rates due to replacement of the vegetation.
It is not possible to replace the rainforests and other tropical habitats, which have evolved
over millions of years, after they all have been destroyed. They loss is going to be permanent. In
the past (BP), even though rainforests decreased in their distribution, there was an opportunity for
recovery due to abundance of species that survive and allowed the forest to recover naturally.
However now, it all looks a little bit different as the climatic changes are more rapid and more
intense as a result of human activities. This may cause long-term or even irreversible changes to
the microclimates and lots of other habitats, eventually leading to extinction of numerous species.
Looking further, this will also greatly affect us, people, as the species extinction means loss of the
products, many of which we depend on daily i.e. timber, oils, gums, latexes, waxes, bamboo,
spices, pesticides and also other goods such as furniture, musical instruments, coffee, fruits, nuts,
deodorant, toothpaste, shampoo, mascara, lipstick and many, many other. Many of the species
provide also many materials used in medicine to produce e.g. antibiotics, heart drugs, hormones
etc.

References:

1. Sodhi NS, Brook BW, Bradshaw CJA, 2007. Tropical Conservation Biology. Oxford:
Blackwell Publishing
2. Park CC, 1992. Tropical Rainforests. London: Routledge.
3.
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