DAILY I FOREX REPORT 23TH JULY 2013

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HEADLINES
Momentum Scorecard: Euro And Sterling To Outperform Versus AUD Yen Gains After Japanese Election, US Home Sales Data Ahead Yen Gains, Nikkei Falls in the Aftermath of Japans Upper-House Election Dollar Eyes US Existing Home Sales Data to Shape Fed Policy Expectations

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3190 TGT 1.3210/1.3230 SL 1.3160
The Japanese Yen outperformed against its leading counterparts to start the trading week, adding as much as 0.9 percent on average and mirroring a pullback in the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index. The newswires are chalking up the move to disappointment in the outcome of Japans upper-house election held over the weekend.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.70 TGT 99.50/99.30 SL 100.00

While the ruling coalition put in a strong showing and expanded its mandate as widely expected, Prime Minister Shinzo Abes LDP party failed to secure outright majority. That means Abe now faces intra-coalition negotiations with the New Komeito party to push through his agenda, which may make for a tougher slog on some of the reforms eyed by the administration.

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5350 TGT 1.5370/1.5390 SL 1.5320

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to the US data docket, where Junes Existing Home Sales report is in focus. Expectations call for an increase to 5.25 million, marking the highest reading since November 2009.

A strong print may reinforce expectations of a cut-back in Fed QE asset purchases, boosting the US Dollar. News-flow out the worlds largest economy has proven somewhat lackluster relative to economists forecasts over recent weeks however, leaving the door open for a downside surprise that weighs against the greenback.

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 65 (BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>43(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0002(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>69(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>36(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>33(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Mon Jul 22

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

JPY BOJ Policy Board Member Sato Speaks in Fukushima 05:00 JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (JUN) CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JUN) USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (JUN) USD Existing Home Sales (JUN) USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (2Q) JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for July 08:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (JUN) CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAY) CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAY) USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAY) USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL A) NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (JUN) NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (JUN)

Low

Low

2.7%

-1.2%

07:00

Low

11.6%

9.7%

07:00

Low

0.1%

-1.2%

12:30

Medium

0.00

-0.30

14:00

Low

5.25M

5.18M

14:00

Medium

1.4%

4.2%

21:00

Low

Tue Jul 23

Low

425.2

High

Medium

38300

36102

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.4%

-0.3%

13:00

Medium

0.8%

0.7%

14:00

Low

10

14:00

Medium

-18.3

-18.8

22:45

Medium

105M

71M

22:45

Low

4.01B

4.08B

22:45

Low

3.90B

4.01B

22:45

Medium

-1050M

-869M

23:50

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JUN) JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JUN) JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JUN) AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JUN) AUD Consumer Prices Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index (YoY) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Consumer Prices Index RBA Weighted Median (YoY) (2Q) CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (JUL) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL P) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL P) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL A) GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (JUL) GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (JUL) GBP CBI Business Optimism (JUL) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 19)

Medium

-150.0B

-996.4B

23:50

Low

-573.5B

-821.0B

23:50

Low

10.0

10.1

23:50

Low

13.6

10.1

Wed Jul 24

01:00

Low

-0.5%

01:30
LIVE

Medium

0.5%

0.4%

01:30
LIVE

High

2.5%

2.5%

01:30

Low

0.5%

0.3%

01:30

Low

2.1%

2.2%

01:30

Low

0.5%

0.5%

01:30

Low

2.4%

2.6%

01:45

Medium

48.5

48.2

07:00

Low

48.8

48.4

07:00

Low

47.5

47.2

07:30

Medium

49.2

48.6

07:30

Medium

50.7

50.4

08:00
LIVE

Medium

49.1

48.8

08:00
LIVE

Medium

48.7

48.3

08:00
LIVE

Medium

49.1

48.7

10:00

Low

-12

-18

10:00

Low

10:00

Low

11:00

Low

-2.60%

12:58

USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (JUL) USD New Home Sales (JUN) USD New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 19) USD DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (JUL 19) NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (JUL 25) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 19) JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (JUN)

Medium

52.5

14:00

Low

485K

476K

14:00

Medium

1.8%

2.1%

14:30

Low

-6902K

14:30

Low

-882K

14:30

Low

3055K

14:30

Low

3870K

21:00
LIVE

High

2.50%

2.50%

23:50

Medium

1105.7B

23:50

Medium

-88.2B

23:50

Low

0.8B

23:50

Low

398.2B

23:50

Low

0.6%

0.3%

Thu Jul 25

Low

-0.3%

-0.4%

Low

-1.6%

-2.9%

08:00

EUR German IFO Business Climate (JUL) EUR German IFO Current Assessment (JUL) EUR German IFO Expectations (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (JUN) GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q A) GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q A) GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAY) GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAY)

Medium

106.1

105.9

08:00

Medium

109.7

109.4

08:00

Medium

102.5

102.5

08:00

Low

3.0%

2.9%

08:00

Low

3.0%

2.9%

08:30

High

0.6%

0.3%

08:30

High

1.4%

0.3%

08:30

Low

0.2%

0.2%

08:30

Low

0.7%

0.8%

12:30

CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (MAY) USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 19) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 13) USD Durable Goods Orders (JUN) USD Durables Ex Transportation (JUN) USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (JUN) USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (JUN) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 19) USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (JUL) JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN) JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL) JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL) CNY MNI July Business Sentiment Indicator USD U. of Michigan Confidence (JUL F) CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (JUN)

Low

2.2%

12:30

Medium

340K

334K

12:30

Low

2980K

3114K

12:30
LIVE

High

1.1%

3.6%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

0.7%

12:30

Low

0.7%

1.1%

12:30

Low

1.1%

1.7%

14:30

Low

58

15:00

Low

-5

23:30

High

0.1%

-0.3%

23:30

Medium

0.3%

0.0%

23:30

Medium

-0.3%

-0.4%

23:30

Low

0.2%

0.0%

23:30

Low

0.3%

0.2%

23:30

Low

-0.4%

-0.4%

Fri Jul 26

01:45

Low

13:55

Medium

84.0

83.9

Sat Jul 27

01:30

Low

12.3%

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