Mr.

OBAMAS LATEST STATEMENT ON KASHMIR: IMPLICATIONS

Muhammad Hanif During his July 2012 trip to India, while replying a question on Kashmir, President Obama ruled out any outside solution of the issue saying that disputes between India and Pakistan can only be resolved by two countries themselves. Welcoming the IndoPak dialogue process, he said, It is not the place of any nation, including the United States, to try to impose solutions from the outside. Nations must meet their responsibilities and all of us have a profound interest in a stable, prosperous and democratic Pakistan. In his statement about Kashmir Mr. Obama has missed out any reference to United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions on the dispute and also avoided laying emphasis on mediation, although he mentioned that USA was ready to play a role in reducing tensions between India and Pakistan if it was requested by both countries. The above referred statement of the US President is a clear departure from his earlier statement on Kashmir, given during his Presidential election campaign(2008) where he had elaborated, The most important thing we are going to have to do with respect to Afghanistan is actually to deal with Pakistan, Obama said in an interview with MSNBC in October 2008. We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they can stay focused not on India but on the situation with those militants. In his this statement there was a definite hint on mediation. Therefore the above referred current statement of Obama on Kashmir largely favours Indias policy on the subject that Indo-Pakistan issues should be resolved through bilateral means and no third party mediation will be accepted, although the statement carries a positive angle as well since it indicates that the US President recognizes that Kashmir dispute exists which should be resolved by both India and Pakistan. Mr Obamas emphasis on bilateralism between India and Pakistan is not realistic as it does not take into account the fact that during 42 years of bilateral negotiations India has not even agreed to discuss the Kashmir issue with Pakistan what to talk of its

resolution. The statement also does not take into consideration the plight of Kashmiris who are completely alienated from India after 22 years of freedom struggle and want to exercise their right of self determination as enshrined in the UNSC resolutions. They have suffered heavily out of hands of Indias state terrorism through use of almost 700,000 troops in IHK where by more than 90,000 kahmiris have been killed and a large number injured and humiliated in many ways. While the US and EU are so much concerned about human rights violations in other parts of the world, why they are silent about gross HR violations being done by Indian troops in IHK. Whereas the US and EU can clearly support freedom of East Timor, division of Sudan and uprisings in some of the Arab countries under the pretext of protecting human rights why cannot they support right of self determination of Kashmiris. Whereas Kashmiris expected that while being in India Mr Obama will support their cause, to their utter surprise he even did not like to condemn the gross violation of their human rights by the India security forces. In the light of the fact that US President is well aware of UNSC resolutions on Kashmir and that last 42 years bilateral negotiations between India and Pakistan have not resolved any issue, his stress on bilateralism clearly favouring Indias stance only indicates the depth of evolving US-India strategic partnership. Seen in the light of USAs experience in fighting war on terror in Afghanistan and the need for courting India in its Asia centric evolving strategic policy, Mr Obamas statement reflects that in US policy formulations in South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia, India will always get primacy over Pakistan. In fact Mr. Obamas statement on Kashmir has been given in the light of his earlier and current policy statements on making India a strategic partner in pursuing US policies in Asia Pacific, Indian Ocean and Central Asia. The current statements of US leadership showering praises on India and undermining Pakistans strategic position in the region are perhaps meant to woo India to Bandwagon US policies in containing China and dominating South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Gulf region, Central Asia and Afghanistan. In view of above and in the light of obtaining strategic scenario in the region surrounding Pakistan, Mr Obamas statement on Kashmir carries serious implications for early resolution of the dispute. Firstly the statement clearly hints to Pakistan that as a junior partner it has to keep talking to India for resolving all issues including Kashmir dispute and wait till India gets willing to address the issues and also finally it should accept Indian solutions. This also shows that probably Kashmiris will have to wait for the resolution of the dispute for many more years. Secondly the statement suggests that the US will play a role only if along with Pakistan India also requests for mediation. This is what India will not do. Even if India agrees for US mediation it will be very difficult for the US to favour the Kashmiris and Pakistan over India by pressing it for resolution of the dispute as per UNSC resolutions.

Thirdly the statement indicates that in the foreseeable future there is no likelihood that UNSC will include Kashmir dispute in its fresh agenda. Even if this is done the US is now not likely to support Pakistan on the issue. Fourthly, this policy stance of Mr. Obama will further add to the arrogance of India and it will continue to crush the Kashmiris freedom struggle not caring for HR violations. India will also be encouraged to also delay discussion on Kashmir issue during bilateral talks with Pakistan for a long time hoping that it might succeed in suppressing the Kashmiris by use of force. It implies that Kashmiris will continue to suffer at the hands of Indias security forces. Fifthly, Obamas statement has largely frustrated Pakistanis and Kashmiris. Therefore it is more likely that the indigenous freedom struggle in IHK gets intensified, this time turning into a Kashmir spring. As a consequence India will blame Pakistan and mutual tensions will be raised. However, whereas India is happy with the statement of President Obama thinking that the only super power in the world is on its side and it can take its own time to delay the resolution of Kashmir dispute to wait for capitulation of Kashmiris to accept its will, it should also realize that frustration of Kashmiris have reached a point of no return and no amount of force will be able to subdue them. And long delay in resolution of Kashmir dispute will certainly create a Kashmir spring resulting into tensions with Pakistan with the possibility of turning the situation into a war between two nuclear states with disastrous consequences for both sides. It is therefore more prudent for Indian leadership to realize the gravity of situation and resolve the issue on urgent basis through negotiations with Pakistan as per wishes of Kashmiri people.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).