Thinking the Unthinkable: Suicide Bombers On American Soil

USAO-Hawaii April 2005 Paul Charles Topalian

Suicide Attacks in the United States: 1997 to 2002

July 4, 2002 LAX Shooting December 22, 2001 Shoe Bomber September 11, 2001 Pentagon September 11, 2001 Twin Towers

September 11, 2001 Stony Creek Township, Pennsylvania July 31, 1997 Attempted Subway Bombing

Inevitability of Suicide Attacks in America

Federal officials warn of the possibility Circumspect in time and place Need for reliable proactive, preemptive prevention and emergency response protocols

Risk of No Action

A campaign could begin anywhere at anytime Expect high casualty rates unless law enforcement and intelligence are prepared to anticipate and interdict

The Moral Imperative

Stopping one suicide bomber can have a high impact on casualties avoided Moral imperative behind trying to stop suicide bombings and developing preventive policies

Domestic Public Safety Strategy

Two Part Strategy: 1. Preemptive Prevention 2. Emergency Response

Could It Happen Here?

Part I: Roots of martyr operations Part II: Israeli Experience Part III: Why not here? Part IV: Components of a comprehensive Plan

Roots of Martyrdom:
Allah is our destination, Prophet Muhammad is our idol, Koran is our constitution, Jihad is our way, Martyrdom is our goal

Embedded Acceptance of Suicide Bombers

Acceptance is deeply rooted in societal and religious frameworks of Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and the Middle East But in the U.S. also look to lone wolf operations under a leaderless terror model threat is very real

Environmental Factors Which Foster Suicide Bombers

Politics, economics, societal, religious, and cultural forces at play Translate into acceptance of martyrdom ideology

Martyrdom Ideology: Twisted Logic

Islamic theology forbids suicide and killing of innocents But fundamentalist thought encourages killing of infidels and nonbelievers in course of a religious war (jihad) against enemies of Islam

Martyrdom Ideology: Shaheeds

Martyrs or shaheeds have a special place in Islamic ideology and thought Perishing in the cause of jihad is not only permissible but desirable Prestige of a heroic death: Live in Glory, Die as a Martyr

Shaheed Motivations
Religious, personal, nationalist, and economic motivations Economics: Tangible financial rewards to family Personal Level: Elevation of self to cult status

Glorification of Self
In an instant you are propelled from being no one to someone who is glorified and lionized with poems, and you live on in this historical chain of martyrs, being remembered and saluted
(Van Natta, New York Times, Aug 24, 2003)

Other Shaheed Motivations

Spiritual Side: Promises of riches, sex, and benefits of paradise Psychological: Restoration of dignity for a repressed life and pride of revenge for loss of acquaintances or even family members

Mohammed Attas Primer

Welcome death in the name of God. Your deed shall be endorsed by the will of God. You will not return to earth and you will plant fear into the hearts of the infidels. When the plane moves, start praying the prayers of traveling Muslims, because you travel in order to meet GodKill and do not think of those you will kill. The last thing to do is to remember God and your last words should be that there is no God but Allah and that Mohamed is His Prophet. You will notice that the plane will stop and then start flying again. This is the hour in which you will meet God. Angels are calling your name.

Israeli Experience:
The Ultimate Smart Weapon

Suicide Attacks As Smart Bombs

Shaheeds seen as military weapon IDF commentary: You have a combatant with 30 pound of TNT. Add a human brain and you get a smart bomb A poor mans smart bomb to offset the Wests technological advantage

Lessons from Israel

Between 1980-2002 suicide attacks in Israel comprised 1%-3% of attacks Yet resulted in 44%-48% of all casualties

Does The Israeli Bomber Experience Apply Here?

Israel has a 30 year history with suicide bombers Yet not all their preventive policies may work here Size of U.S. larger and civil liberties and rights of individuals are protected & more strictly enforced

Does The Israeli Bomber Experience Apply Here?

Clearly in their emergency response protocols yes. Clearly in their intelligence lessons learned, yes

Lessons Learned from Israeli Security Forces

2004 marked a 50 percent decline in successful suicide bombings against Israelis only 6 in Israel and 8 in adjacent territories Security forces foiled 114 planned bombing and apprehended 92 suicide bombers

Why not here?

Since 9/11 there have been no successful suicide attacks on American soil

Why No Recent Suicide Martyr Attacks On American Soil ?

Lack of target suitability? Certainly thousands exist even with hardening others Unfavorable cost-benefit analysis? Hardly, very favorable - 1:25 Inaccessibility of explosives? Plentiful

Why No Recent Suicide Martyr Attacks On American Soil ?

Have Islamic extremists rejected suicide tactics or have been told to not to engage in such tactics? No, but perhaps $ stream Is there no one is willing to sacrifice themselves in the U.S.? Again, doubtful.

Why No Recent Suicide Martyr Attacks On American Soil ?

Is it because standards of living differ higher wages and standards of living in the U.S? Perhaps Perhaps the U.S. more favorably supports Lone Wolf operations

Profiles of Lone Wolves

The ultimate weapon decentralized terror cells a single person or a cell of no more than 2 confidants sharing a similar vision Interested in only death and destruction not necessarily dying Initial homicides morph into terror operations with religious or political roots

Examples of Lone Wolves

January 23, 1993 Front gateway leading to CIA Pakistani Mir Kansi February 26, 1993 Bombing of World Trade Center Ramzi Yousef April 19, 1995 Oklahoma Federal Building McVeigh and Nichols

Examples of Lone Wolves

February 23, 1997 Empire State Building Observatory Palestinian July 4, 2002 - LAX El Al Airlines ticket counter U.S. national Hesham Hadavet from Egypt October 24, 2002 DC Snipers Malvo and Mohammed

Can Anyone Explain the Absence of Suicide Bombing Campaigns?

Not really. -- No rational can fully explain the absence Perhaps, the absence tells us that suicide attacks are unnecessary in an open society. Or Perhaps that our national strategy is working effectively

A Comprehensive Preemptive Prevention and Emergency Response Plan

What Should We Expect?

Focus on centers of extremist propaganda and education Improve channels of intelligence Highly fragmented, lone wolf or leaderless resistance structure

What Protocols Might We Consider In Hawaii?

Weigh likely protocols needed from U.S. perspective, not Middle East perspective Weigh likely operatives and TT&P from U.S. perspective, not Middle East perspective

Essentials for an Effective Preventive Interdiction Policy

First, good intelligence particularly from the inside Need to seek answers: Who-WhatWhere-When-How

So, Are We Able to Successfully Stop Suicide Attacks?

Unlikely we can stop all Much like terrorism itself there will always be people willing to die for their beliefs even twisted beliefs Consequently public safety officials must must address both prevention and mitigation

Six Components of a Comprehensive Plan

1) Improved federal & local law enforcement intelligence capabilities 1) Properly equipped and trained emergency responders 2) Politically accepted & understood deadly force policies

Six Components of a Comprehensive Plan

4) More training focused on Pre-Incident indicators 5) Continued exploitation of advanced technologies 6) Continued Target hardening improvements

Six Components -- Comprehensive Prevention & Response Plan

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Intelligence Emergency Response Deadly Force Pre-Incident Indicators Advanced technologies Target hardening

Thinking the Unthinkable: Suicide Bombers On American Soil

USAO-Hawaii April 2005 Paul Charles Topalian