SIMULATION PROBLEMS 1. A book store wishes to carry Ramayana in stock.

Demand is probabilistic and replenishment of stock takes 2 days (ie,. If an order is placed on March1, it will be delivered at the end of the day on March 3). The probabilities of demand are given below: Demand(daily): 0 1 2 3 4 Probability: 0.05 0.10 0.30 0.45 0.10 Each time an order is placed, the store incurs an ordering cost of Rs. 10 per order. The store also incurs a carrying cost of Rs. 0.50. per book per day. The inventory carrying cost is calculated on the basis of stock at the time of each day. The manager of the book store wishes to compare two options for his inventory decision. A. Order 5 books when the inventory at the beginning of the day plus orders outstanding is less than 8 books. B. Order 8 books when the inventory at the beginning of the day plus orders outstanding is less than 8. currently (beginning of the 1st day ) the store has stock of 8 books plus 6 books ordered 2 days ago and expected to arrive next day. Using Monte-Carlo simulation for 10 cycles, recommend which option the manager should choose. The two digit random numbers are given below: 89,34,78,63,61,81,39,16,13, 73. 2. Records of 100 truck loads of finished jobs arriving in a departments check-out area show the following: checking out takes 5 minutes and checker takes care of only one truck at a time. The data is summarized in the following table: Truck inter- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 arrival time(min) 1 4 7 17 31 23 7 5 3 2 Total=100 Frequency As soon as the trucks are checked out, the truck driers take them to the next departments. Using Monte-carlo simulation, determine: What is the average waiting time before service? What is likely to be the longest wait? 3. Hundred unemployed people were found to arrive at a one person state-employment office to obtain their unemployment compensation cheque according to the following frequency distribution Inter-arrival time (min) frequency Service time (min) frequency 2 10 2 10 3 20 3 20 4 40 4 40 5 20 5 20 6 10 6 10 The govt. is interested in predicting the operating characteristics of this one-person state employment office during a typical operating day from 10.00am to 11.am. use simulation to determine the average waiting time and total time in the system, and the maximum queue length. 4.The occurrence of rain on a city in a day is dependent upon whether or not it rained on the previous day. If it rained on the previous day, the rain distribution is given by: EVENT No rain PROBABILITY 0.50 1 .cm rain 0.25 2.cm rain 0.15 3.cm rain 0.05 4.cm rain 0.03 5.cm rain 0.02

If it did not rain the previous day, the rain distribution is given by: EVENT No rain 1 .cm rain 2.cm rain 3.cm rain PROBABILITY 0.75 0.15 0.06 0.04 Simulate the citys weather for 10 days and determine by simulation the total days without rain as well as the total rainfall during the period. Use the following random numbers. 67 63 39 55 29 79 70 06 78 76 for simulation. Assume that for the first day of the simulation it had not rained the day before. 5. the director of finance for a farm cooperative is concerned about the yields per acre she can expect from this years corn crop. The probability distribution of the yields for the current weather condition is given below; Yield in kg. per acre probaility 120 0.18 140 0.26 160 0.44 180 0.12

She would like to see a simulation of the yield she might expect over the next 10 years for weather conditions similar to those she is new experiencing. (i) Simulate the average yield she might expect per acre using the following random numbers:

20, 72,34,54,30, 22, 48, 74, 76, 02. She is also interested in the effect of market price fluctuations on the cooperatives farm revenue she makes this estimate of per kg. prices for corn. Price per kg. (rs) 2.00 2.10 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50 probabilities 0.05 0.15 0.30 0.25 0.15 0.10 (ii) Simulate the price she might expect to observe over he next 10 years using the following random numbers: 82, 95, 18, 96 20, 84, 56, 11,52,03.