Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.7 percent in April. European Consumer Confidence dropped to -17-mark mark in last month. BBA Mortgage Approvals increased by 1,000 to 37,300 in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.7 47.7-mark in July.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.75 Prev day -0.1 0.1

as on 23 July, 2013 w-o-w -0.8 m-o-m -0.8 y-o-y -6.0

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data leading to signals of slowdown in worlds second largest economy. US House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.7 percent in April as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 11-mark in July from previous rise of 8-level level in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI (PMI) declined by 0.5 points to 47.7-mark mark in July from previous 48.2 48.2-level in June. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, favorable economic data from US exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 82.01 and closed at 82.04 on Tuesday.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3221

0.3

0.5

0.8

9.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.04

-0.3 0.3

-0.7

-0.9

3.3

6077.8

0.8

2.1

7.2

18.8

SENSEX

20302.1

0.7

2.3

8.1

11.0

DJIA

15567.7

0.1

0.8

5.5

22.4

S&P

1692.4

-0.2 0.2

1.0

6.3

25.3

Source: Reuters

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of late dollar demand from corp corporate sector. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments. Further, her, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) move to tighten gold imports making them dependent on export volumes in order to reduce the current account deficit of the country prevented sharp fall in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 59.87 and closed at 59.75 on Tuesday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,605.60 crores nd ($933.80 million) as on 22 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.66,572.80 crores ($12,567 million) till 22 July 2013. Japans Trade Balance at a deficit of 0.60 trillion Yen in June as against a previous deficit of 0.78 trillion Yen in May.

The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, favorable consumer confidence data from the th region acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3238 and closed at 1.3221 against the dollar on Tuesday. Tuesday European Consumer Confidence dropped to -17-mark in June as against -19-level in May. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 1,000 to 37,300 in June as against a rise of 36,300 a month ago.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.9 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in gold prices was capped on account of decline in SPDR gold holdings to 929.76 6 tonnes which is at lowest level since February 2009. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day high of $1347.69/oz and closed at $1347.50/oz /oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices gained around 0.1 percent and closed at Rs.27,574/10 gms after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.27,6 Rs.27,668/10 gms on Tuesday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1347.5 Prev. day 0.9 as on 23 July, 2013 WoW 4.3 MoM 3.9 YoY -14.7

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27550.0

1.4

3.9

3.0

-6.5

1333.5

0.5

3.3

3.0

-15.8

$/oz

1335.1

-0.1

4.5

8.6

-15.3

Rs /10 gms

27574.0

0.1

4.2

2.3

-6.7

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Silver prices declined around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on the back of rise in gold prices, upside in base metals complex along with weakness in the DX. The white metal touched an intra intra-day low of $20.09/oz and closed at $20.50 in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices fell around 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.41,854/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs.40,449 on Tuesday.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 20.5 42450.0 Prev day -0.3 1.5

Source: Reuters

as on 23 July, 2013 WoW 2.4 1.9 MoM 1.8 0.3 YoY -24.1 -19.7

$/oz $/ oz

2018.0 20.2

1.2 -1.2

1.2 4.3

1.6 8.9

-25.1 -24.4

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a lower note in todays trade, taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, weak global markets sentiments will exert downside in the prices. Additionally, decline in SPDR holdings will act as a negative fact factor for prices. Depreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp downside movement in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 24 24, 2013 Support 1338/1328 27565/27462 20.34/20.10 41762/41420 Resistance 1350/1360 27711/27868 20.68/20.90

Rs / kg

41854.0

-0.9

2.0

0.9

-20.8

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

42140/42780

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from decline in API crude oil inventories inventories. Further, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in prices. Further, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments acted as a positive factor. . Crude oil prices touched an intra intra-day high of $107.55/bbl and closed at $107.20/oz /oz in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, MCX crude July contract rose by 0.4 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of Rs.6,407/bbl and closed at Rs.6,393/bbl /bbl on Tuesday. API Inventories Data As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels to 369.66 million barrels for the week ending on 19th July 2013. Gasoline inventories fell by 889,000 barrels to 221.32 million barr barrels and whereas distillate inventories slipped by 710,000 barrels to 125.47 million barrels for the same week. EIA Inventories Forecast The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending on 19th July 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 1.1 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to rise by 1.9 million barrels for the same period. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of decline in API crude oil inventories. Further, forecast for fall in US crude oil inventories will support an upside in prices. However, strength in the DX coupled with weak global markets capped sharp gains in prices. Additionally, decline in Chinas manufacturing data lead to estimates of slow economic growth in worlds second largest economy and thereby affecting demand for fuel fuel. In the Indian markets, depreciation preciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 24, 2013 Support 106.50/105.50 6356/6310 6310 Resistance 108.0/108.70 6426/6460
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 110.3 107.2 Prev. day 0.4 0.3 WoW 0.0 1.2

as on 23 July, 2013 MoM 9.7 12.5 YoY 5.7 21.7

$/bbl

108.4

0.2

-0.9

7.4

4.8

Rs/bbl

6393.0

0.4

2.4

13.9

28.0

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 23 July, 2013

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.729 222.7

Prev. day 0.6 1.7

WoW 1.75 2.67

MoM -2.05 -1.89

YoY 19.29 28.88

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a positive note in the yesterdays trade as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of mixed LME inventories scenario. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc $/tonne 1887.5 0.7 -0.1 2.0 4.9 Rs /kg 122.2 0.3 0.2 1.2 17.1 $/tonne 2065.0 0.5 -0.5 1.8 11.4 Rs /kg 837.5 0.0 3.4 0.0 -5.3 $/tonne 14130.0 0.0 2.7 0.3 -10.1 Rs /kg 107.4 0.0 2.1 2.3 3.1 $/tonne 1846.0 0.2 1.8 2.8 -1.1 Rs/kg 421.9 0.5 1.3 3.6 0.7 $/tonne Last 7048.0 Prev. day 0.5 as on 23 July, 2013 WoW 0.6 MoM -10.2 YoY -4.7

Copper
Copper prices traded on a positive note in the yesterdays trade and increased around 0.5 percent on the back of decline in L LME copper inventories around 0.4 percent which stood at 632 632,050 tonnes. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets supported an upside in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7050/tonne /tonne and closed at $7048/tonne in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices rose 0.5 percent and closed at Rs. 421.90/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4 Rs.422.20/kg on Tuesday. Outlook

(3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)

Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

110.5

0.5

0.5

2.0

8.9

LME Inventories In todays session, we expect base metals group to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX will act as a negative factor. Additionally, decline in Chinas manufacturing data which is at 11-month low will exert downside pressure ressure in prices prices. However, sharp downside in prices will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of expectations of favorable manufacturing and services data from Euro region. In the Indian markets, depreciation preciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 24, 201 2013 Support 421.0/419.80 110.0/109.50 121.80/121.20 106.90/106.40 833/827 Resistance 423.0/425.0 111.0/111.60 122.80/123.40 108.10/108.90 842/847 Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 23rd July 632,050 5,466,500 200,334 1,063,825 198,775 22nd July 634,650 5,469,150 199,782 1,067,625 197,975 Actual Change -2,600 -2,650 552 -3,800 800 (%) Change -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.4 0.4
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 24 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories

Japan China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK US US US

5:20am 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 3:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

-0.60T 47.7 -

-0.58T 48.6 48.9 47.7 49.3 50.9 49.1 48.9 -12 52.5 482K -2.5M

-0.82T 0.82T 48.2 48.4 47.2 48.6 50.4 48.8 48.3 -18 51.9 476K -6.9M 6.9M

Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium

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