Л. И. Колмыкова - Фундаментальный анализ финансовых рынков 2007

..
2008
65.010.655
336.76
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.................................................................................................................................... 8
1. , ....................................... 12
1.1. ................................................................. 12
1.2. ................................................... 13
1.3. ................................................... 13
1.4. ......................... 15
2. ...................................................... 16
2.1. ............................................................. 16
2.1.1. ................................................................. 17
2.1.2. 0 .................................................. 18
2.1.3. ................................................................ 19
2.1.4. .......................................................... 21
2.1.5. European Commission ......................... 26
2.1.6. ()
European Parliament ................................................................................ 26
2.2. .......................................... 27
2.3. ................................................................... 28
2.4. ........................ 38
2.5. ................................................................................................... 41
2.6. ................................................................... 43
3. , ..................................................... 44
3.1.
...................................................................................................... 44
3.2. ........................................................................ 46
3.2.1. ................................................................. 46
3.2.2. ........................................................................................... 47
3.2.3. , 1991 . ............................................................................ 49
3.2.4. ......................................................................................... 49
3.2.5. ........................................................... 51
3.2.6. ............................................................. 51
3.2.7. 11 2001 . ..................... 52
3.2.8. ............................................... 53
3.2.9. ....................................................................... 54
www.fxclub.org

3.3. ........................................................................................................................... 55
3.3.1. , ........................... 56
3.3.2. .................................................................................. 56
3.3.3. ......................................................................... 57
3.4. ...................................................................... 58
3.5. .............................................................................. 61
4. ................................................................................................ 64
4.1.
................................................... 64
4.2. ......................................................................... 66
4.2.1. ............................................................................................................. 66
4.2.2. ....................................................................................... 74
4.2.3. ......................................................................................................... 76
4.2.4. ................................................................................................. 79
4.2.5. .................................................................................. 80
4.2.6. .......................................................................................................... 83
4.2.7. ................................................................................................... 84
4.3. 0
.............................................................................. 85
4.3.1. ...................................................... 85
4.3.2. () .... 86
4.3.3. 0 .................................................. 87
4.3.4. ..................................................................................... 87
4.3.5. () ....................................... 87
4.3.6. () ............. 89
4.3.7. () .................................. 90
4.4. .................................................................................. 91
4.4.1. ,
................................................................... 92
4.4.2. .......................................................................... 92
4.4.3. , .............. 93
4.5.
.............................................................................................. 93
4.5.1. ............................................ 93
4.5.2. ..................... 96
4.5.3. 1 2004 . .......................... 97
4.5.4. SWAP ............................................ 103
4.6. ....................................................................................... 106
4.7. .................................................................................... 110
4.8. .............................................................. 117
5. ........................................................................................................ 122
5.1. .............................................................................. 122
5.2.
............................................................................................ 123
www.fxclub.org
5.2.1. ................................... 123

5.2.2.
......................................................................................... 124
5.2.3. ................. 126
5.2.4. ............................................ 128
5.2.5. ............................................................................. 130
5.3. ................................................... 132
5.3.1. .............................................................................. 132
5.3.2. ..................................................................................... 136
5.3.3. ......................................................................... 139
5.3.4. 0 ............................................................. 139
5.4. ............................................................................................ 140
5.4.1. .................................................................... 142
5.4.2. ........................................................................... 154
6. .............................................................................................. 159
6.1. ..................................................................................................... 159
6.2. ................................................................................................ 160
7. ...................................................................... 163
7.1. ........................................................................ 164
7.2. ............................................................................ 169
7.2.1. ..................................................................................... 170
7.2.2. ..................................................................................... 171
7.2.3. ........................................................................... 172
7.2.4. ............................................. 183
7.2.5. ...................................................... 185
7.2.6.
................................................................................................. 185
7.2.7. .............................................. 186
7.3. ......................................................................................................... 186
7.3.1. ........................................................................... 187
7.3.2. ,
(
) .................................................................................................... 189
7.3.3. ...................................................................... 191
7.3.4. ...................................................................... 192
7.3.5. ............................................................... 192
7.3.6. ............................................... 192
7.3.7. ....................................... 193
7.3.8. ...... 194
7.4. .............................................................................. 195
7.4.1. .................................... 195
7.4.2. ........................... 197
7.4.3. .................................................................... 198
7.4.4. ............................... 199
www.fxclub.org
7.5.
7.6.
7.7.
7.8.
7.9.
7.10.
7.11.
7.12.
7.4.5. , , ............................................. 200

7.4.6. .......................... 202
7.4.7. ............................................ 203
............................................................................... 203
7.5.1.
( ) .............................................................................. 203
7.5.2. .................................................................................... 204
.................................................................................... 209
7.6.1. ................................................................... 209
7.6.2.
( ) ..................................................... 210
....................................................... 210
7.7.1. ................................... 210
7.7.2. ................................ 212
7.7.3.
........................................................ 212
7.7.4. ........................................................................ 213
7.7.5. .............. 215
7.7.6. ................................................................... 216
.......................................................................................... 216
7.8.1. .............................................................................. 216
7.8.2. ............................... 219
7.8.3. ......................................................................... 219
7.8.4. .................. 219
.............................................................................................. 220
7.9.1. ............................................................................ 220
7.9.2. () ....................................................... 221
7.9.3. .................................................................... 222
............................................................... 223
7.10.1. ..................................................... 223
7.10.2. ................................................ 225
7.10.3. INSEE ....................................................................................................... 226
.......................................................................... 226
7.11.1. ................................. 226
....................................................................... 229
7.12.1. ISM (NAPM), PMI
() ............................................................................... 230
7.12.2. ............................................................. 232
7.12.3. ............................ 232
7.12.4.
.............................................................. 233
7.12.5.
..................................................... 233
7.12.6. Empire State Manufacturing Survey ................................................ 234
www.fxclub.org
7.12.7. APICS APICS Business Outlook Index ...................... 234

7.12.8. ............................... 234
7.13. ............................................................ 236
.................................................................................................................... 242
1. ......................................................................................... 242
2. () ....................... 246
3. .............................................................................................. 248
4. .................................................................................................... 253
5. .................................................... 256
................................................................................................................... 263
...................................................................................................................... 264
.................................................................................................................... 274
.... 277
......................... 280
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123
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124

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126
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127

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www.fxclub.org
128
5.2.4.

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FOREX 10 ,
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www.fxclub.org
129
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Moodys (http://www.moodys.com);
Standard & Poors (http://www.sandp.ru);
Fitch Ibca. (http://www.fitchibca.com).

.

www.fxclub.org
131
D.
(+) (),

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www.fxclub.org
132

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133
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www.fxclub.org
134
,
.
, margin
call . ,
,
.
(cash settlement)
(deliverable).
,

() .

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Australian Dollar
100 000
H, M, U, Z
AD
0.0001 ($10)
1 pt = $10
62 500
H, M, U, Z
BP
0.0002 ($12,50)
1 pt = $6,25
Canadian Dollar
100 000
H, M, U, Z
CD
0.0001 ($10)
1 pt = $10
Euro-Currency
125 000
H, M, U, Z
EC
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1 pt = $12,50
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Japanese Yen
Swiss Franc
1 250 000
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JY
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ES
0.25 pt
($12,50)
1pt = $50
E-Mini NASDAQ
100
EN
0.50 pt
($10,00)
1pt = $20
ND
0.50 pt ($50)
1pt = $100
NK
5 pt ($25)
1pt = $5
SP
0.10 pt ($25)
1pt = $250
NASDAQ 100
NIKKEI 225
S & P 500
www.fxclub.org
135
,
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, , , (H, M, U, Z).
.
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,

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.
www.fxclub.org
136
.

(Fed Funds rate).
,
. ,
.
35 .
Fed Funds Fed Funds rate
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3 .
, 3

USD/JPY.
35 (Euribor).
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3
euroEuro
EUR/USD.
35 .
3
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USD/CHF.
35 ( ).
3 .
3

GBP/USD.
5.3.2.
,
(
)

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(premium) ( )
www.fxclub.org
137

. .
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www.fxclub.org
138

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www.fxclub.org
139
5.3.3.
Forward contract (deal)
,

. ,
,
, . .
.
,
.

.
5.3.4. 4

.
CBOT (http//www.cbot.com) Chicago Board of Trade.
: , , ,
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: , , , ,
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, .
CME (http//www.cme.com) Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
: , ,
, , , ,
, , ,
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(Oriented Strand Board), S & P 500, Mini S & P, FTSE
100, MMI, NASDAQ 100, Nikkei 225, Russell 2000, S & P MidCap 400,
EuroYen, Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR (1 month),
.
www.fxclub.org
140
NYMEX (http//www.nymex.com) Division of New York Mer5

cantile Exchange.
: , ,
, , , , .
: , ,
, , .
COMEX (http//www.nymex.com) Division of New York Mer5
cantile Exchange.
: , , .
CSCE (http//www.csce.com) Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange,
Inc.
: , , , ,
, , , #11 (
), #14 (), .
: , , , ,
, , #11 ().
KCBT Kansas City Board of Trade.
: , MiniValue Line, ValueLine.
: .
CTN (http//www.nyce.com) New York Cotton Exchange.
: , ,
.
: , , .
LIFFE (http//www.liffe.com) London International Financial
Futures Exchange.
EOE European Options Exchange.
Deutsche Terminboerse (DTB).
Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX).
5.4.

.
, .
www.fxclub.org
141
.
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100/DJIA.
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2.
,
.
www.fxclub.org
142

. 5.4.1.
. 5.4.1.

5.4.1.
4
4 .
1. (The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, DJIA).
2. (The Dow Jones Transporta
tion Average, DJTA).
3. (The Dow Jones Utility Ave
rage, DJUA).
4. (The Dow Jones Composite Ave
rage, DJCA), .

(The Wall Street Journal).
,

. ,
, .
www.fxclub.org
143
.
,
, ,

, .
DJTA DJUA,
, DJIA
.
,
,
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.
4
,
,
.
.
,
.
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31 2002 . :
DJIA 0,142 799 2;
DJTA 0,232 835 26;
DJUA 1,714 926 23.
5
, .
A = 26, B = 20, C = 45, D = 17, . .
27.

37. ,
25.
, :
,
www.fxclub.org
144
(divisor), ,
, .
(A + B + D + E) / = 27.
,
= (26 + 20 + 37 + 17) / 27 = 3,704.
5 (The Dow Jones Indust5
rial Average, DJIA)
30 .

2004 . . 5.4.1.
26 1896 .
, .
,
,
.

.
.

, 100

, .
,
. 1884 . 11 , (9)
,
.
,
, ,
.
,
7 1896 . 1916 .
DJIA 20 ; 1928 .
30 . , 1928 .,

.
www.fxclub.org
145
5.4.1
DJIA 2004 .
Ticker /
Sedol
Company
Primary Group
3M Co.
MMM
Industrial Diversified
Alcoa Inc.
AA
Aluminum
Altria Group Inc.
MO
Tobacco
American Express Co.
AXP
Diversified Financial
AT & T Corp.
Fixed-Line Communications
Boeing Co.
BA
Aerospace
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT
Heavy Machinery
Citigroup Inc.
Diversified Financial
Coca-Cola Co.
KO
Soft Drinks
E. I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.
DD
Chemicals Commodity
Eastman Kodak Co.
EK
Recreational Products & Services
Exxon Mobil Corp.
XOM
Oil Companies Major
General Electric Co.
GE
General Motors Corp.
GM
Automobile Manufactuters
Hewlett-Packard Co.
HPQ
Computers
Home Depot Inc.
HD
Retailers Specialty
Honeywell International Inc.
HON
Intel Corp.
INTC
Semiconductors
International Business Machines Corp.
IBM
Computers
International Paper Co.
IP
Paper Products
J. P. Morgan Chase & Co.
JPM
Banks Ex-S&L
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ
Pharmaceuticals
McDonald's Corp.
MCD
Restaurants
Merck & Co. Inc.
MRK
Pharmaceuticals
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT
Software
Procter & Gamble Co.
PG
Household Products Nondurable
SBC Communications Inc.
SBC
Fixed-Line Communications
United Technologies Corp.
UTX
Aerospace
Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
WMT
Retailers Broadline
Walt Disney Co.
DIS
Broadcasting
www.fxclub.org
146
DJ U. S. Total
Market Index 28%
($8,9 31 2002 .).

, .
, ,

:
.
:
(Life High) 11 993 .
24.09.99 .;
(Life Low) 41,2 . 1932 .
( ).
5 (The Dow Jones Trans5
portation Average, DJTA) ,
20
(, ).

2004 . . 5.4.2.

,

. , 1884 .
, Dow Jones & Company,
Wall Street Journal,
, New York
Central Union Pacific,
Pacific Mail Steamship Western Union.
.
.
1896 . 20 , 18
,
.
. 8 1896 .
48,55 . Union
Pacific ( , )
www.fxclub.org
147
5.4.2
DJTA 2004 .
Ticker /
Sedol
Company
Primary Group
Alexander & Baldwin Inc.
ALEX
Marine Transport
AMR Corp.
AMR
Airlines
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
BNI
Railroads
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
CHRW
Trucking
CNF Inc.
CNF
Trucking
Continental Airlines Inc. Cl B
CAL
Airlines
CSX Corp.
CSX
Railroads
Delta Air Lines Inc.
DAL
Airlines
Expeditors International of Washington Inc.
EXPD
Air Freight
FedEx Corp.
FDX
Air Freight
GATX Corp.
GMT
Industrial Services
J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.
JBHT
Trucking
Norfolk Southern Corp.
NSC
Railroads
Northwest Airlines Corp.
NWAC
Airlines
Ryder System Inc.
Transportation Services
Southwest Airlines Co.
LUV
Airlines
Union Pacific Corp.
UNP
Railroads
United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B
UPS
Air Freight
USF Corp.
USFC
Trucking
Yellow Roadway Corp.
YELL
Trucking
, Delta Air Lines, Federal Express

and Ryder System.

, . ,

.
,
,
. ,

.
www.fxclub.org
148
5 (The Dow Jones Utility

Average, DJUA)
15 , 5 .

2004 . . 5.4.3.

; 1929 .
, ,
,
. ,
,
.
5.4.3
DJUA 2004 .
Ticker /
Sedol
Company
Alexander & Baldwin Inc.
ALEX
Primary Group
Marine Transport
AMR Corp.
AMR
Airlines
Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
BNI
Railroads
C. H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.
CHRW
Trucking
CNF Inc.
CNF
Trucking
Continental Airlines Inc. Cl B
CAL
Airlines
CSX Corp.
CSX
Railroads
Delta Air Lines Inc.
DAL
Airlines
Expeditors International of Washington Inc.
EXPD
Air Freight
FedEx Corp.
FDX
Air Freight
GATX Corp.
GMT
Industrial Services
J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.
JBHT
Trucking
Norfolk Southern Corp.
NSC
Railroads
Northwest Airlines Corp.
NWAC
Airlines
Ryder System Inc.
Transportation Services
Southwest Airlines Co.
LUV
Airlines
Union Pacific Corp.
UNP
Railroads
United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B

USF Corp.
Yellow Roadway Corp.
UPS
USFC
YELL
www.fxclub.org
Air Freight
Trucking
Trucking
149
,
.

.
,
100 100 ,
.
.
18 , 6
, 1 1929 ., 20,
2 1938 . 15
.
NASDAQ (National Association of Securities
Dealers Automated Quotations)
National Association of Securities Dealers

,
. NASD
,
, ,
.
NASD 1939 .
(SEC)
(1938 .),
1934 .
.
NASD 27 , NASD
13 . NASD
, NASD

.
NASDAQ
, 1971 .
5000 ,
, ,
.
www.fxclub.org
150
NASDAQ
,

.
500 ,
,
2000 . 61 092 . NASDAQ
,
.
NASDAQ
, ,
. NASDAQ

. NASDAQ
:
,
,
/ ;
(ECN Electronic Com
munications Network) ,
/
.
NASDAQ Composite Index. 8 1971 .
100 .
,
NASDAQ.

.

, . NASDAQ Composite Index
,
,
. 4862
, .
NASDAQ Composite
www.fxclub.org
151
Index ,
S & P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),
30 .
NASDAQ Composite Index:
(Life High) 4816,35 .
24.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 993,01 .
12.01.98 .
NASDAQ5100 Index. 100
( ) ,
NASDAQ. , ,
NASDAQ ( )
,
100 000 .
NASDAQ Financial5100 Index. 100
, NASDAQ.
31 1985 .
250 .
NASDAQ National Market Composite Index.
NASDAQ Composite Index.
, NASDAQ Composite Index,
NASDAQ National Market. 10
1984 . 100 .
STANDART & POORS
Standard & Poors Composite 500 Index.
400 , 20 , 40
40 . .
80% ,
.
$73 $75 .
Standard & Poors Composite 500 Index:
(Life High) 1553,11 .
24.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 38,98 .
19.12.57 .
www.fxclub.org
152
Standard & Poors 400 Index (S & P Midcap). S & P

500, 400 ,
$85 $6,8 .
Standard & Poors 100. S & P 500,
100 ,
. OEX
,
.
Value Line Composite.
, .
,
,
,
(
).
Wilshire 5000. ,
, .
,
,
, ,
7000. .
, S & P 500,
, , Wilshire 5000
S & P 500.
4
NYSE INDEX
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) Index.

,
,

,
(
, ).
,
, NYSE .
www.fxclub.org
153

.
,
.
AMEX

, .
AMEX Major Market Index ( AMEX).
20
.

.
,
,
. , 15
.

.
AMEX Market Value Index (
).
: ,
,
.
1973 .
800 ,
,
, , ,
.
,
,
, ,
, .
.
. 22.10.2003 .

. ,
www.fxclub.org
154
FOREX,

. , Dow Jones,
,
. Dow Jones 1,5% ,
NASDAQ 2,2% (. 5.4.2).
. 5.4.2. EUR/USD, .

5.4.2.
FT5SE
FT5SE 100
, footsie ( 100).
,
www.fxclub.org
155
100
.
70%
.
FTSE 100:
(Life High) 9869 .
30.12.99 .;
(Life Low) 6950 .
23.07.84 .
FT5SE 30 Share Index, Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Share
Index. 1935 .
30 .
,
30
30 .
FT5SE Mid 250.
, 20%
. 250 ,
FTSE 100. 1985 .
Nikkei 225. .
225 ,
.
Nihon Keizai Shim
bun.
.
Nikkei (
nihon keizai nihon ,
keizai , ). 225
, .
,
, DJIA. 1950 .
Nikkey 225:
(Life High) 38 916 .
29.12.89 .;
www.fxclub.org
156
(Life Low) 85,25 .

06.07.50 .
Topix. ,
1968 . , 1 .
JPN.
, 210 ,

. JPN ,
Nikkei.
CAC540. .
40
, .
, ,
.
CAC40:
(Life High) 93,99 .
31.01.01 .;
(Life Low) 53 .
23.02.01 .
General. .
250 .
DAX
DAX 30,
30 (
3 ) .
.

Xetra DAX, DAX 30.
,
www.fxclub.org
157
. DAX 100
CDAX 320 .
(Life High) 8136 .
07.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 931 .
29.12.88 .
Swiss Perfor5
mance Index (SPI), SPI (SPIX), Swiss
Market Index (SMI), SMI (SMIC),
Swiss Bond Indices (SBI). ,
.
SMI 21 .
1 1
.
TSE 300,
14
.

Hang Seng
Index, 33 ,
70% .
4 :
, , ,
.
Hang Seng Index:
(Life High) 18 397,57 .
28.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 58,61 .
31.08.67 .
www.fxclub.org
158
. 5.4.4
.
5.4.4

New York
Toronto
London
DJ Indus
9293,80
Jun 18
NASDAQ
1677,14
Jun 18
NYSE Comp
5706,06
Jun 18
S & P 500
1010,09
Jun 18
Russell 2000
457,51
Jun 18
Wilshire 5000
9646,42
Jun 18
TSX 300
7103,49
Jun 18
FTSE 100
4205,00
Intraday
FTSE 250
5081,80
Intraday
Frankfurt
Xetra DAX
3310,63
Intraday
Paris
CAC40
3212,64
Intraday
Tokyo
Nikkei 225
9110,51
Close
Nikkei 300
172,62
Hong Kong
Hang Seng
9993,39
Intraday
Sydney
All Ords
3070,90
Close
DJ EURope
STOXX 600
210,66
Intraday
STOXX 50
2503,04
Intraday
EURoSTOXX 50
www.fxclub.org
25
Close
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160
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www.fxclub.org
164
7.1.
GDP (Gross domestic product)
(). ()
.
,
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7.1.2
1999 2003 .

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() Gross national product (GNP).
. 7.1.1. /
www.fxclub.org
165
.
1.
.

,
.
2.

(
). .

4
: (C, Consumption),
(I, Investments), (G,
Goverment purchases) , . .
(X M, eXport iMport):
GDP = C + I + G + (X M).
(C) 3 :
( 3 ) (durable
goods , . .), ( 3 )
(nondurable goods , , )
(services). durable goods
15%, nondurables 31%, services 54%
. , C
56% , ,
.
(I) 14% ,
(G) , ,
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(X M) 13%. ,
,
,
(. . (X M) ).

:
, (
www.fxclub.org
166
),
.
GDP = W + Q + R + P + T,
GDP ;
W ,
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;
Q ;
R ;
P ;
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www.fxclub.org
168
( ),
( , Real GDP).
GDP Advance ()
.
, .
: Advance Provisional
(Revised) Final.
: 16:30 , ,
, .
GDP Provisional (Revised)
() .
() (Advance).
: 16:30 , ,
, .
. 7.1.2. GDP ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus1chart.pdf
www.fxclub.org
169
GDP Final ()
.
(Provisional).
.
: 16:30 , ,
, .
: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(http://www.bea.doc. gov/bea/dn1.htm).
. 7.1.1 , ,
, 2003 .
2004 .
7.1.1
, , ,
2003 GDP Final 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 2003
2002
2001
2000
2004
Forecast
US Y/Y
+2,0
+3,1
+8,2
+4,1
+3,1
+2,2
+0,5
+3,7
+4,0
EUR-zone Y/Y
+0,7
+0,1
+0,3
+0,6
+0,4
+0,9
+1,6
+3,4
+1,6
EUR-zone Q/Q
0,0
0,1
+0,4
+0,3
Germany Y/Y
+0,4
0,7
-0,2
+0,2
0,1
+0,2
+0,8
+3,0
+0,5
Germany Q/Q
0,2
0,2
+0,2
+0,2
Japan Y/Y
+3,9
+1,4
+4,0
+7,0
+2,0
+1,2
0,7
+3,2
+2,0
UK Y/Y
+1,9
+2,1
+2,1
+2,8
+2,3
+1,7
+2,3
+3,0
+2,7
7.2.

. ,
, .
( . inflatio )

18611865 .
. I
.

,
20 .
www.fxclub.org
170
,

,
.

. ,
,
. ,

.

.

. , , ,
.

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,
. ,
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7.2.1.
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,
.
, ,
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.

.
www.fxclub.org
171
20 200%
. ,
.

.
:
33 000%.
1992 .,
2600% .
, ,
. ,
.
.
, . .
.
, ,
,
.

.
7.2.2.
, ,

.
.
(demandpull inflation)

.
.
( ),

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, .
www.fxclub.org
172
,

.
(costpush inflation)
.

.
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,
.
.
, , .
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.
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7.2.3.
,
, :
Consumer Price Index, CPI;
Producer Price Index, PPI.
CPI
(Consumer Price Index, CPI)
,
,
, (
, , , ,
. .). , .
www.fxclub.org
173

.

,
,

.
19 000 57 000
80%
. 44,1%
, 55,9% . 85

.
(BLS) 10
. , CPI

, , , .
,
. 0,51,5%.
,
.
:
PIU ,
, ;
CPIW
.
,
,
CoreCPI,
(CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY).
, ,
,
; ,
.
CPI
(. 7.2.1).
www.fxclub.org
174
. 7.2.1. CPI ()
PPI.
,
CPI PPI
. , ,
,
(. 7.2.2).
, ,
.
, 0,2
, .
: 16:30 , 13 (
).
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics
(http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm).

(RPI Retail Price Index), 0,5
www.fxclub.org
175
. 7.2.2. CPI PPI
CPI4U, % , Seasonally Adjusted http://data.bls.gov
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1993
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.2
1994
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
1995
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
1996
0.5
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
1997
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
1998
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
1999
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
2000
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
2001
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.1
2002
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
2003
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
+0,5%. ,
, . .
:

;
( ), flat.
www.fxclub.org
176
. 20.01.2004 . 4
.

.
+0,4% , +0,3%, .
0,1%, +1,3% ., +1,2%, .
+1,3% (. 7.2.3).

: , ,
, CPI .
CPI,
.
CPI 32% , 44%
. ,
, , ; ,

. 7.2.3. GBP/USD, . CPI
www.fxclub.org
177
,
.
PPI
(Producer Price Index, PPI)
,
. :
(, . .)
( ).
,
.
22 000 , 3000 , 75 000
. ,
18 . , ,
, , .
, .
,
. ,
PPI ,
, ,
. ,
1978 .
Wholesales Price Index (WPI).
10 000 ,
3500 .
WPI.
,
(. 7.2.4). PPI
, , ,
,
.
CPI.
,

. CorePPI = (PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY).
,
.
www.fxclub.org
178
. 7.2.4. PPI ()
Seasonally Adjusted Finished goods less food and energy
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1993 0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
1994 0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
1995
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.1
1996 0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1997 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
1998 0.1
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0
1999 0.1 0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.1
2000 0.1 0.3
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
2001 0.4 0.3 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
2002 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3 0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.6
2003 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Annual
0.0(P) 0.5(P) 0.1(P) 0.1(P)
P: Preliminary. All indexes are subject to revision four months after original publication
www.fxclub.org
179
: 16:30 , 11 (
).
(http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm).
HICP
Harmonized Index Consumer Prices
.
, ,
ECB .
,
. CPI
.
CoreHICP
, ,
.
.

.
GDP Deflator

( ) , . .
,

, .
.
.
(Implicit Price Deflator),
.
; 20 ,
.
( revised)
.

(CPI)
. CPI,
www.fxclub.org
180
,
,
,
.

. .
. 7.2.5.
: 16:30 , .
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).
. 7.2.5.
Import Prices
(.
7.2.6). .
(CPI)
,

.
.

(. 7.2.7).
: 16:30 , 10 ,
Export Prices.
www.fxclub.org
181
. 7.2.6.
. 7.2.7. Import Prices
www.fxclub.org
182

Bea end use import indexes Item: all commodities
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1999
0.3
0.1
0.3
1.0
0.8
0.2
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.2
0.7
0.7
2000
0.4
1.9
0.2
1.4
0.3
1.4
0.0
0.2
1.2
0.4
0.0
0.7
2001
0.0
0.6
1.6
0.5
0.2
0.4
1.5
0.1
0.1
2.3
1.5
1.0
2002
0.2
0.0
1.3
1.6
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.7
0.0
0.9
0.6
2003
1.8
1.7
0.6
3.1
0.7
0.9
0.5
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.2
Export Prices
(. 7.2.8).
.
.

(. 7.2.9).
. 7.2.8.
www.fxclub.org
183
. 7.2.9. Export Prices
Bea end use export indexes Item: all commodities
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
0.1
0.3
1999
0.0
0.2 0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.0
2000
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1
0.0
0.2
2001
0.2
0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2
0.4
0.1
2002 0.1 0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3 0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2 0.1
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
2003
0.6
0.3
: 16:30 10 ,
Import prices.
7.2.4.
Average hourly earnings (AHE)
Average hourly earnings (. 7.2.10)
,
. .

(. 7.2.11).
www.fxclub.org
184
. 7.2.10.
. 7.2.11. AHE
: 16:30 , ,
Nonfarm Payrolls.
www.fxclub.org
185

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1999 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.03
0.01
0.05
2000 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.07
0.05
0.04
2001 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02
0.06
0.03
2002 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05
0.04
0.06
Annual
2003 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01(p) 0.03(p)
7.2.5.
Employment Cost Index
, ,
,
( , . .), .

.
(labor costs).
.

,
(
).
.
.
: 16:30 , (, ,
), 4 ( ).
: Labor Department.
7.2.6.

Unit Labour Cost
,
.
.
, .
Productivity
www.fxclub.org
186
( ).
.

,
.
: 16:30 , , 10
Productivity.
7.2.7.
Real earnings (Real Average Weekly Earnings)
(
).
1982 .
,
.
,
,

.
.
: 16:30 , ,
CPI ( ).
: Labor Department.
7.3.

,
,
.

; , ,
,
; , ,
,
1600 .
www.fxclub.org
187
7.3.1.
Unemployment Rate (UR)
UR (. 7.3.1)
.
60 000 375 000 .
,
. ,
19 , 12 .
,

.

,
.
. 7.3.1.
www.fxclub.org
188
,
, , ,
. Nonfarm Payrolls.
.

(. 7.3.2).
: 16:30 , ,
12 , , .
. 7.3.2. UR
Unemployment rate, %, Seasonal Adjusted (http://data.bls.gov)
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1993
7.3
7.1
7.0
7.1
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.5
1994
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
1995
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
1996
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.4
1997
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
1998
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
1999
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.0
2000
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
2001
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5.0
5.4
5.6
5.7
2002
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6.0
2003
5.8
5.9
5.8
6.0
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.7
www.fxclub.org
Annual
189

(http://stats.bls.gov/cpshome.htm).
7.3.2. ,

(
)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPR)
NFPR (. 7.3.3) 500
340 000 (
,
).
, .

. 7.3.3. NFPR
www.fxclub.org
190
(. 7.3.4). ,
.
:
200 000 3,0%.
Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek Hourly
Earnings
,
. ,
NFPR , .
, ,
,
,
.
: 16:30 , ,
.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov/
ceshome.htm) US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).
. 03.10.2003 .
.
(Nonfarm payrolls)
57 000
25 000, (Unemployment rate)
6,1% ( 6,2%).

. 7.3.4. NFPR
www.fxclub.org
191
,
(. 7.3.5).
. 7.3.5. NFPR
7.3.3.
Average workweek

.

, Industrial Production ( )
Personal Income ( ),
.
.
: 16:30 , ,
Nonfarm Payrolls.
www.fxclub.org
192
7.3.4.
Employment Situation
60 000
375 000
, ,
,
.

,
.
: 16:30 , (
).
: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.
7.3.5.
Household employment

( 60 000 )
,
; , :

(selfemployed);
(, ,
), /.
7.3.6.
Help5Wanted Index
,
( ),
(51 ).
.
, ,
www.fxclub.org
193

, .

.
.
: 18:00 , ,
.
: The Conference Board.
7.3.7.
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims
.
.
,
. ,
Nonfarm Payrolls (

). ,
Jobless laims ,
Nonfarm Payrolls.

( 7.3.6).
. 7.3.6. Jobless Claims
www.fxclub.org
194
: 16:30 , ( ,
).
. 09.10.2003 .
.
4 382 000,
(393 000).
2003 . (. 7.3.7).
. 7.3.7.
7.3.8.

Initial Jobless Claims
,
.

www.fxclub.org
195
,
.
.
, .
: 16:30 .
7.4.
7.4.1.
Industrial Production (IP)

(Indust
rial Production (. 7.4.1))
, ,
. ,
, . IP
,
,

, ,
(. 7.4.2).
,
255 . 1992 .,
84,6%
, 7,3%, 8,1%. FED

(Production diffusion index),
( 255),
.
: 17:15 , 15 (
).
: Federal Reserve Board
(http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/).
www.fxclub.org
196
. 7.4.1. IP ()
. 7.4.2. IP
www.fxclub.org
197
7.4.2.
Capacity Utilization (CAPU)

(Capacity Utilization, CAPU) +
+
( ) .
+
,

, +
.

81,5%. CAPU 85 %, +
,
. +
, +
+
(. 7.4.3).
,
+
. +
CAPU .
. 7.4.3. CAPU
www.fxclub.org
198
: 17:15 , 15+ (
) +
.
: Federal Reserve Board
(http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/).
7.4.3.
Factory Orders
Factory Orders ,
+
. +
,
. +
+
(. 7.4.4).
. 7.4.4. Factory Orders
: 18:00 , (+
2 ).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm).
www.fxclub.org
199
7.4.4.
Durable Goods Order (DGO).

(Durable Goods Orders, (. 7.4.5)) +

3 (, , , +
. .). +
5000 . +
, ,
. 4 +
: (primary metals), ,
.
, , +
. 7.4.5. Durable Goods

: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus6chart.pdf
www.fxclub.org
200
, +
(Durable goods orders excluding
defence) (Durable goods orders excluding
transportation). ,
. +
, +
.
, +

(. 7.4.6).
: 16:30 , 26+ (
).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm).
. 7.4.6. DGO
7.4.5. , ,
Business Inventories
Business Inventories (. 7.4.7) , +
.
,
,
.

(. 7.4.8). , +
www.fxclub.org
201
. 7.4.7.
. 7.4.8. Business Inventories
(Business
Inventories and Sales)
.
: , +
www.fxclub.org
202
(Inventories to Shipments Ratio, INSR).

, +
. Inventories INSR +
. ,
. +
.
: 16:30 , , 6 +
.
: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).
7.4.6.
Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale Inventories +
. +
,
, +
.
. +
.
(. 7.4.9).
: 18:00 , 10+ .
. 7.4.9. Wholesale inventories
www.fxclub.org
203
7.4.7.
Productivity and Costs

(). (
, ),
+
.
: 16:30 , 7+
( ).
: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm.
7.5.
7.5.1.
( )
Current Account (Balance of Payments)
(. 7.5.1) +
, +
, +
.
, + , , +
. ,
+
, ( +
), ( ). +
(
) +
.
, , +
.
. (
) (+
, ).
www.fxclub.org
204
. 7.5.1. ()
. +
, +
, .

.
: 18:00 ,
.
7.5.2.
Trade Balance (Balance Of Trade)
(. 7.5.2)
, . .
( ).
www.fxclub.org
205
, (+
). ,
( ).
, ,
. +
, +
, , +
,
. +

;
.
,
, +
, .
+
. 7.5.2. ()
www.fxclub.org
206
, +
. , + +
,
.

( ) ,
, +
.

.
,

. , +
, ,
, , +
.
,
+
,
,
.
+
.

, .
(
, , ,
, , )
. +
, +
. :
+
+
,
. .
: ( 2 +
).
www.fxclub.org
207
1. 13.02.2004 .

(. 7.5.3). +
+
(Michigan sentiment index)
93,1 ( 103,4, 103,8).
(International trade)
$42,5 ( $39,8 , +
$38,0 $38,4 ). +
.
2.
1990 2003 . . 7.5.1.
, 1990+ . +
( ,
,
). +
. 7.5.3. EUR/USD, .

www.fxclub.org
208

7.5.1
1990 2003 .
1990
80,860
1997
107,048
1991
31,135
1998
163,153
1992
38,186
1999
261,202
1993
69,166
2000
375,384
1994
97,188
2001
357,819
1995
95,069
2002
418,038
1996
102,869
2003
489,378

, , +
, .
,
.
, +
, +
, +
.
, +
. +
,
,
.
,

1995 1999 . , 90+ .
,
. 6,5%
,
, , . +
, , +
.
, +

.
www.fxclub.org
209
2000 2004 .
1%, , +
,
. , EUR/USD
26.10.2000 . 0,8225
1,2927 18.02.2004 .
7.6.
7.6.1.
Federal budget

.
.
+
.
,
. +
(
, +
. .) . +
,
. , +

, . +
, , +
,
. +
( )
.
+
, , , +
(
). , +
(
www.fxclub.org
210
+ ).

.
+ +
, +
.
+
+
.
: 22:00 , .
: Treasury Financial Management Service
(http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html).
7.6.2.
( )
Treasury Budget
; +
. +
,
.

, +
.
: 00:00 , 3+ ( +
).
: Treasury Financial Management Service
(http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html).
7.7.
7.7.1.
Construction Data
Construction Data
. 7.7.1.
www.fxclub.org
211
. 7.7.1. Construction Data
. +
.
, +
. ( ) 17%
( ) 40% (!)
( ).
, +
, . , +
. +

, , +
.
, +
.
+
, +
.

. +
.
1 +
.
. , ,
www.fxclub.org
212
100+
1+ .
7.7.2.
Building permits
+
.
. ,
, . +
19 000 , +
, +
, .
+
+
(Index of Leading Economic Indicators).
+
. +
. +
.
: 16.30 , 3+ +
Housing Starts.
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/mtistext.html).
7.7.3.

Housing Starts and Building Permits

(
; . 7.7.2) +
, ,
. +
+
.
.
www.fxclub.org
213
, +
. Housing
starts and building permits. +
1,5 2 , +
.
.
: 16:30 , 16+ .
:
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/housing.html.
. 7.7.2.
7.7.4.
New home sales

, , (. 7.7.3).
, , +
. .
+
www.fxclub.org
214
.
. ,
+
. +

.
, ,
, . +
16% .
84% +
.
. 7.7.3.
: 18:00 , +
.
:
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/housing.html.
www.fxclub.org
215
7.7.5.
Existing Home Sales

,
.
, (
, +
+
). +
,
; ,
. +
84% ; +
16% .
, +

. ,
, +
.
. +
,

.
:
.
. +
5, , +
5 ,
, .
+
.
: 18:00 , 25+ (
).
:
(http://nar.realtor.com/news/releases.htm).
www.fxclub.org
216
7.7.6.
Construction Spending

, ,
.
.
. +
, 3+ +
.
: 18:00 , 1+ (
2 ).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/prod/1/constr/c30/c30.html).
7.8.
7.8.1.
Retail Sales
+
(. 7.8.1). +
. , +
.
2 :
( 3 ) .
40%, 60% .
( 3/5) +
; 2/5 +
, , . +
, ,
, , (http://
www.census.gov/).
, . +
,
. +
www.fxclub.org
217
+
, +
, +
.
. 7.8.1.
+
.
, +
. ,
,
, .
+ +
. + ,
. ,
. +
www.fxclub.org
218
,
+.
: 16:30 , 13+ ( +
).
: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
. 21.02.2003 .
.
, +
, 1,0%,
0,4%. +

2000 . +
, (. 7.8.2).
. 7.8.2. GBP/USD, .

www.fxclub.org
219
7.8.2.
Auto and Truck Sales

,
.
, 25% +
. ,
, +
,
. +

: 16:30 , , +

( ).
: , Commerce
Department.
7.8.3.
Car Sales
.
+
, 25%
.
: 13+ ( +
).
: , Commerce
Department.
7.8.4.
Redbook
+
. +
17:00 . (
www.fxclub.org
220
) +
,
+
. . , +

( ). +
. ,
.
: 17:00 , .
7.9.
7.9.1.
Personal Income
Personal Income +
, , , +
, . .
+
. +
(. 7.9.1). Per+
sonal Spending (. 7.9.2).
: 16:30 , 20+ (+
2 ).
. 7.9.1. PI
www.fxclub.org
221
. 7.9.2.
: Bureau of Economic Analysis

(http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm).
7.9.2. ()
Personal Spending (Consumption)
(. 7.9.3).
: +
,
.
Retail Sales (+
). , , +
,
. , +
+
.
www.fxclub.org
222
. 7.9.3.
+
.
: 16:30 , 4+ +
Personal Income.
: Bureau of Economic Analysis
(http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm).
7.9.3.
Consumer Credit

( ,
). +
. ,
. +
www.fxclub.org
223
,
, : , +
, ,
.
.
:
, ( ) . ,

,
.
, +
, . ,

. +

.
: 23:00 , 5+ (
2 ).
: http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G19/Current/.
7.10.
7.10.1.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
+
, +
.
,
.
University of Michigan Sentiment Index +
500 .
5 , +
(2 ) (3 +
) .
www.fxclub.org
224
,
, , ,
, 100.

, +
. ,
60% .

, , +
. CSI , ,
. CSI +
, . , +
, ,
.
: 18:00 , (+
) ( ); 18:00 , +
. 7.10.1. EUR/USD, . CSI
www.fxclub.org
225
( ) (+
).
: (The University of Michigan).
. 12.09.2003 . +
:
0,6% 1,5%,
+
88,2 90,2
. , +
(. 7.10.1). +
+
.
7.10.2.
Consumer Confidence Index
(Conference
Board) 5000 +
+
( , ,
). +
(100 ) 1985 .
+
, +
+
5 .
+
. +
60% , 40% +
.
,
.
+
.
: 18:00 , (
).
: (Conference
Board).
www.fxclub.org
226
7.10.3. INSEE
, +
+
.
.
7.11.
7.11.1.
Leading Economic Indicators
Leading Economic Indicators (. 7.11.1) +
( +
).
. 7.11.1. LEI
www.fxclub.org
227
+
( , , +
, ,
, ).
, +
, +
(. 7.11.2).
. 7.11.2. LEI
,
, +, +
, +
, (), +
, .
(Leading Economic Indicator, LEI)
11 .
+
.
+
.

( 1982 .).
( , +
).
www.fxclub.org
228

( 1982 .).
.
+
( , 1982 .).
.
S & P 500 ().
2 (1982 .).
(University of Michigans
Consumer Expectations Index).
,
.

, ; +
, , .
, +
: , +
, , , , , ,
.
0,2%
expansion, recovery 0,1%; +
0,3%. +
LEI:
0,8%, 1,2%. +
. +
, LEI +
. , 3
LEI +
. , 0,7%, 1%
0,8% .
. , +
,
. +
, LEI +
.
www.fxclub.org
229
.
: 18:00 , (
2 ).
: TCBs Business Cycle Indicators
(http://www.tcb+indicators.org).
7.12.
+
,
().
+
.
,
. +
, ,
. +

, .
, , PMI
TANKAN +
+
.
,
: , +
+
.
+
( +
) . +
,
, +
. +
+ +
.
+
www.fxclub.org
230
. +
.
, +
, .
7.12.1. ISM (NAPM), PMI

()
Institute for Supply Management
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) 2002 .
NAPM National Association of Purchasing Mana+
gers. ISM 1915 . 45 000 +
. Diffusion Index PMI
ISM ( ). +
, : , , ,
+ , , +
. 4000

( ,
60 000 ) (. 7.12.1).
NAPM ( 7.12.2).
.
:
30%,
25%,
20%,
15%,
+ 10%.
4550% +
, 50% , +
. PMI 43,8% +
GDP, 44%
. ISM +
. +
.
www.fxclub.org
231
. 7.12.1. PMI
. 7.12.2. NAPM
: 18:00 , (+
).
: ISM (http://www.ism.ws/).
www.fxclub.org
232
7.12.2.
ISM Services Index
ISM Services Index +
, +
. 50 +
.
. +
(. 7.12.3).
: 18:00 , +
+
(NAPM Index).
: ISM (http://www.ism.ws/).
. 7.12.3. ISM Services Index
7.12.3.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
+
. ,
50, ,
. : +
. , +
+
, .
www.fxclub.org
233
: 18:00 , ,
, .
: +
.
7.12.4.

Atlanta Fed Index
+
. 0
.

. ,

(ISM index).
: 17:00 , 10+ .
: .
7.12.5.

Philadelphia Fed Index

(+
, + ).
.
0 +
. , +
,
.
.
: 18:00 , .
: .
www.fxclub.org
234
7.12.6. Empire State Manufacturing Survey

+
Empire State Manufacturing Survey 2001 .
+
. ,
, , +
,

.
: +
(http://www.ny.frb.org/research/regional_economy/empiresurvey_
overview.html)
7.12.7. APICS APICS Business

Outlook Index
,
+
, 50, ,
. : .
+
,
.
: ( ,
( ) 8:30 E. T.)
.
: http://www.apics.org/index/.
7.12.8.

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)

, +
, ., . . +
. 50% +
www.fxclub.org
235
, 50% +
. .
: .
CBI industrial trends
.
( ) +
.
+
. .
: 17:15 , 15+ (
).
: Confederation of British Industry
.
CBI distributive trades
.
( ) +
.
. +
.
: 17:15 , 15+ (
).
: Confederation of British Industry
.
IFO ()

. +
. 80 120,
100 1991 . +
.
: .
ZEW ()
+
(ZEW economic expectations index).
. +
ZEW 300 .
www.fxclub.org
236
Tankan report
, +
. +
8000 ,
:
;
;
, ;
;
;
;
.
Tankan +
, +
.
Tankan .
: , ,
. +
, , .
: Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp).
7.13.

.

23 27 ()
:
(http://review.fxclub.org/forex/review).
, 23 2004
23:50 : , : (. .; .
Y1,12 ).
23:50 : , : (. .; . 3,9% )
www.fxclub.org
237
14:00 :
.
14:15 : +
, .
16:00 : +
, .
16:30 : +
BTP CCT, 26 .
/ : +
+
.
/ : +
+
.
/ : +
.
/ :
( 23 24 ).
/ : .
, 24 2004
01:30 : 30+ +
.
04:00 : 30+
.
05:00 : , : (.
4,1% ).
05:30 : , : (.
3,0% ).
07:50 : , : (. 0,6%; .
0,2%).
08:30 : , : (.
104; . 99).
08:30 : , .
09:00 : , IFO: (.
97,6; . 97,5).
10:00 : BOTs CTZs.
www.fxclub.org
238
12:45 : ICS+UBS , +
21 : (. +1,4%).
13:55 : Redbook , +
21 : (. +0,8%).
14:00 : ,
.
14:00 : .
14:00 : +
.
14:30 : +
.
15:00 : , Con+
ference Board: (. 92,0; . 96,8).
15:00 :
, .
15:00 : JP
Morgan Chase, +.
23:30 : ABC/
Money: (. 13).
23:50 : , : (.
0,8% ).
/ : 10+ +
EUR 7
4,25%.
/ : +
.
/ :
3GSM, .
/ :
, .
, 25 2004
07:45 : ( ), +
: (. 0,1%; . 0,1%).
08:00 : .
08:30 : , : (. 93,9;
. 93,4).
www.fxclub.org
239
08:30 : , , .
09:00 : .
09:10 :
.
09:30 : 4 ., .
10:15 : +
.
12:00 : +
: (. +6,4%).
14:00 :
, +.
14:00 : .
15:00 : , +
: (. +0,13).
15:00 : +
, .
15:00 : ,
.
15:00 :
, .
17:00 : + .
23:50 :
.
23:50 : , : (. 0,1% ).
/ : 3+ OECD.
/ : +
.
/ : + +
.
/ : +
+ .
/ : +
.
/ :
.
/ :
,
www.fxclub.org
240
/
/
00:00
01:30
04:00
06:30
07:30
07:45
09:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
15:00
15:00
15:00
. ,
, +
(2527 ).
: +
+ +
(2527 ).
:
Alliance UniChem.
: 10+ +
EUR 7 4,25%.
, 26 2004
:
, .
: 2+ +
.
: 2+ +
.
: + .
: + +
.
: , : (. 103;
. 102).
: , M3: (. 6,6% ; .
7,1% ; . 7,1% ; . 7,6% ).
: 4., : (. +C$7,3 ).
: , +
21 : (. 24K).
: , .
: , : (. 0,3%).
: , , +
: (. +0,6%).
: , : (. 0,1%).
: , .
: , Con+
ference Board.
: DJ+BTM: (. +0,3%).
www.fxclub.org
241
18:00 :
, +.
21:30 : .
22:00 :
.
22:30 : +
, .
23:30 : , : (.
0,2% ; . 0,3% ).
23:30 : ,
: (. 0,1% ; . . ).
23:30 : ,
: (. +0,4% ; . +1,1% ).
23:30 : , : (. 4,9%; .
4,9% ).
23:50 : , +
: (. +2,6% ).
/ : (26 +
1 ).
/ :

.
/ : (25
27 ).
/ : .
, 27 2004
04:30 : , METI: (.
3,4% ).
05:00 : , : (. +8,8% ).
www.fxclub.org
036
UD
040
932
008
LL
012
DZD
032
RS
931
004
906
056
100
GL
987
RR
826
348
UF
704
VND
280
300
GRD
268
208
www.fxclub.org
243
978
UR
818
376
ILS
356
INR
360
IDR
400
JD
368
IQD
364
IRR
372
352
IS
724
380
IL
398
124
404
196
417
GS
156
NY
170
192
414
WD
418
428
LVL
422
434
LYD
440
LL
442
LUF
504
960
DR
484
www.fxclub.org
244
498
DL
496
524
NR
566
NGN
528
NLG
554
NZD
578
784
586
604
616
LZ
620
810
RUR
642
RL
682
SR
702
SGD
760
SY
703
705
SI
736
SDD
840
USD
914
901
WD
764
788
ND
795
792
RL
928
UZS
980
858
UY
www.fxclub.org
245
608
246
FI
250
FRF
203
152
756
752
144
LR
233
230
710
ZR
890
YUN
410
RW
392
JY
www.fxclub.org
246

()
Change
(basis points)
Date
Increase
Decrease
Level (percent)
...
25
1.00
...
50
1.25
December 11
November 6
October 2
September 17
August 21
June 27
May 15
April 18
March 20
January 31
January 3
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
25
50
50
50
25
25
50
50
50
50
50
1.75
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
2000
May 16
March 21
February 2
50
25
25
...
...
...
6.50
6.00
5.75
1999
November 16
August 24
June 30
25
25
25
...
...
...
5.50
5.25
5.00
1998
November 17
October 15
September 29
...
...
...
25
25
25
4.75
5.00
5.25
1997
March 25
25
...
5.50
2003
June 25
2002
November 6
2001
www.fxclub.org
247
...
25
5.25
...
...
50
25
25
...
5.50
5.75
6.00
75
50
50
25
25
25
...
...
...
...
...
...
5.50
4.75
4.25
3.75
3.50
3.25
...
...
...
25
50
25
3.00
3.25
3.75
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
50
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
50
25
4.00
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.75
...
...
...
...
...
25
25
25
25
25
7.00
7.25
7.50
7.75
8.00
1996
January 31
1995
December 19
July 6
February 1
1994
November 15
August 16
May 17
April 18
March 22
February 4
1992
September 4
July 2
April 9
1991
December 20
December 6
November 6
October 31
September 13
August 6
April 30
March 8
February 1
January 9
1990
December 18
December 7
November 13
October 29
July 13
A basis point is 1/100 percentage point.
: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
www.fxclub.org
248

: 146 + 4 2003 .
1
Albania
Angola
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Canada
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Congo
Costa Rica
Cote d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus

2
8 September 2000
23 November 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
5 February 2003
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
22 February 1996
12 September 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 December 1996
3 June 1995
23 July 1995
13 December 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
19 October 1996
1 January 1995
11 December 2001
30 April 1995
27 March 1997
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
30 November 2000
20 April 1995
30 July 1995
www.fxclub.org
249
1
Czech Republic
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Estonia
European Communities
Fiji
Finland
France
Gabon
The Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Grenada
Guatemala
Guinea Bissau
Guinea
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong, China
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan
2
1 January 1995
1 January 1997
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
9 March 1995
21 January 1996
30 June 1995
7 May 1995
13 November 1999
1 January 1995
14 January 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
23 October 1996
14 June 2000
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
22 February 1996
21 July 1995
31 May 1995
25 October 1995
1 January 1995
30 January 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
21 April 1995
1 January 1995
9 March 1995
1 January 1995
11 April 2000
www.fxclub.org
250
1
Kenya
Korea, Republic of
Kuwait
The Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia
Lesotho
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macau, China
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Mongolia
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Netherlands For the Kingdom in Europe
and for the Netherlands Antilles
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Norway
Oman, Sultanate of
Pakistan
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
2
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
20 December 1998
10 February 1999
31 May 1995
1 September 1995
31 May 2001
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
4 April 2003
17 November 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
27 July 2001
29 January 1997
1 January 1995
26 August 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
3 September 1995
13 December 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
9 November 2000
1 January 1995
6 September 1997
9 June 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
www.fxclub.org
251
1
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
Senegal
Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan,
Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden
Switzerland
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela
Zambia
Zimbabwe
2
1 January 1995
1 July 1995
1 January 1995
13 January 1996
1 January 1995
22 May 1996
21 February 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 2002
23 July 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
30 July 1995
26 July 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 July 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 March 1995
29 March 1995
26 March 1995
1 January 1995
10 April 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
5 March 1995
www.fxclub.org
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W:
Algeria
Andorra
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Belarus
Bhutan
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Cambodia
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Holy See (Vatican)
Kazakhstan
Lao Peoples Democratic Republic
Lebanon
Nepal
Russian Federation
Samoa
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia
Seychelles
Sudan
Chinese Taipei
Tonga
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Vietnam
Yemen
Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep. of
. Holy See,

.
: http://www.wto.ru/chto.asp?f=memb&t=7
www.fxclub.org
253
Afghanistan, Islamic
29
Cameroon
Albania
30
Canada
Algeria
31
Cape Verde
Angola
32
Central African Republic
Antigua and Barbuda
33
Chad
Argentina
34
Chile
Armenia
35
China
Australia
36
Colombia
Austria
37
Comoros
10
Azerbaijan
38
Congo
11
Bahrain
39
Costa Rica
12
Bahamas, The Bahrain
40
C?te d'Ivoire
13
Bangladesh
41
Croatia
14
Barbados
42
Cyprus
15
Belarus
43
Czech Republic
16
Belgium
44
Denmark
17
Belize
45
Djibouti
18
Benin
46
Dominica
19
Bhutan
47
Dominican Republic
20
Bolivia
48
Ecuador
21
Bosnia and Herzegovina
49
Egypt
22
Botswana
50
El Salvador
23
Brazil
51
Equatorial Guinea
24
Brunei Darussalam
52
Eritrea
25
Bulgaria
53
Estonia
26
Burkina Faso
54
Ethiopia
27
Burundi
55
Fiji
28
Cambodia
56
Finland
www.fxclub.org
254
57
France
89
Lao People's Democratic Republic
58
Gabon
90
Latvia
59
Gambia
91
Lebanon
60
Georgia
92
Lesotho
61
Germany
93
Liberia4
62
Ghana
94
Libyan Arab Jamhiriya
63
Greece
95
Lithuania
64
Grenada
96
Luxembourg
65
Guatemala
97
Macedonia
66
Guinea
98
Madagascar
67
Guinea-Bissau
99
Malawi
68
Guyana
100
Malaysia
69
Haiti
101
Maldives
70
Honduras
102
Mali
71
Hungary
103
Malta
72
Iceland
104
Marshall Islands
73
India
105
Mauritania
74
Indonesia
106
Mauritius
75
Iran, Islamic
107
Mexico
76
Iraq
108
Micronesia, Federated
77
Ireland
109
Moldova
78
Israel
110
Mongolia
79
Italy
111
Morocco
80
Jamaica
112
Mozambique
81
Japan
113
Myanmar
82
Jordan
114
Namibia
83
Kazakhstan
115
Nepal
84
Kenya
116
Netherlands
85
Kiribati
117
New Zealand
86
Korea
118
Nicaragua
87
Kuwait
119
Niger
88
Kyrgyz Republic
120
Nigeria
www.fxclub.org
255
121
Norway
153
South Africa
122
Oman
154
Spain
123
Pakistan
155
Sri Lanka
124
Palau
156
Sudan
125
Panama
157
Suriname
126
Papua New Guinea
158
Swaziland
127
Paraguay
159
Sweden
128
Peru
160
Switzerland
129
Philippines
161
Syrian Arab Republic
130
Poland
162
Tajikistan
131
Portugal
163
Tanzania
132
Qata
164
Thailand
133
Romania
165
Timor-Leste
134
Russian Federation
166
Togo
135
Rwanda
167
Tonga
136
St. Kitts and Nevis
168
Trinidad and Tobago
137
St. Lucia
169
Tunisia
138
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
170
Turkey
139
Samoa
171
Turkmenistan
140
San Marino
172
Uganda
141
Sao Tome and Principe
173
Ukraine
142
Saudi Arabia
174
United Arab Emirates
143
Senegal
175
United Kingdom
144
Serbia and
176
United States
145
Montenegro
177
Uruguay
146
Seychelles
178
Uzbekistan
147
Sierra Leone
179
Vanuatu
148
Singapore
180
Venezuela
149
Slovak Republic
181
Vietnam
150
Slovenia
182
Yemen, Republic of
151
Solomon Islands
183
Zambia
152
Somalia
184
Zimbabwe
www.fxclub.org
256

1
U. S. Department of the Treasury
2
http://www.ustreas.gov
U. S. Bureau of Economic Analvsis
http://www.bea.doc.gov
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
http://stats.bls.gov
U. S. Department of Labor
U. S. Department of Commerce
http://www.dol.gov
http://www.doc.gov
U. S. Bureau of Census
http://www.scensus.gov
U. S. Department of Agriculture
http://www.usda.gov
U. S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics
http://bts.gov
STAT-USA Internet
http://www.stat-usa.gov
National Bureau of Economic Research
http://www.nber.org/
FedStats
http:///www.fedstats.gov
Federal Reserve Bank
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us
Investment Company Institute

Joint Economic Committee
http://www.ici.org
http://www.housc.gov
Statistics Canada
http://www.statcan.ca
U. K. Office of National Statistics
|http://www.ons.gov.uk
Japan External Trade Organization
http://www.jetro.go.jp
Japan Economic Planning Agency
http://epa.go.jp
German Federal Statistical Office
http://www.statistik~bund.dc/e home.htm
German government
German Finance Ministry
http://www.bundesregierung.de
http://www.bundesfinanzmmisterium.de
German Federal Economics Office
http://www.bawi.de
German Labor Office
http://www.arbeitsamt.de
Eurostat
http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/eurostat/
eurostat.html
Federal Reserve U. S.
http://www.federalreserve.gov

Business Ccle Indicators
http://www.globalexposure.com/
Dismal Scientist UK
http://www.dismal.com/
Economic Information Systems
http://www.econ-line.com
Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast

Mexico
The Dismal Scientist
http://www.cob.asu.edu/seid/eoc/eocmex.
html
http://www.Dismal.com/
U. S. European. Japan macrocconomic data
http://www. economagic.com
www.fxclub.org
257
Commodity Futures Trading Commission

(CFTC)
http://www.cftc.gov
Congress.Org
http://www.congress.org/
Futures Industry Association/

Futures Industry Institute
http://www.fiafii.org/
Emerging Markets Traders Association
http://www.emta.org
White House
http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/Welcome.
html
IFC Emerging Markets Data Base
http://wwwifc.org/EMDB/EMDBHOME.HTM
International Swaps and Derivatives

Association
http://www.isda.org/
U. S. Securities and Exchange

Commission
http://www.sec.gov
Managed Funds Association
http://www.mfairifo.org/
National Futures Association (NFA)
http://nfa.fiitures.org
Futures Industry Association (FIA)
http://fiafii.org
Securities Investor Protection Corporation
http://sipc.org

Bank for International Settlements
http://www.bis.org
Bank of England
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk
Bank of Japan
http://www.boj.or.jp
Banque de France
http://www.banque-france.fr
Board of Governors of the Federal

Reserve System
http://www.bog.frb.fed.us
Deutsche Bundesbank
http://www.bundesbank.de
European Central Bank
http://www.ecb.int/
Swiss National Bank
http://www.snb.ch
De Nederlandsche Bank
http://www.dnb.nl
Banco Central do Brasil
http://www.bcb.gov.br
Bank of Canada
http://www.bankofcanada.ca
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
http://www.frbatlanta.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
http://www.bos.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
http://www.frbchi.org
www.fxclub.org
258
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
http://www.clev.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
http://www.dallasfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
http://www.kc.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
http://minneapolisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
http://www.ny.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
http://www.phil.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
http://www. Rich.frb.org
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
http://www.frbsf.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
http://www.stls.frb.org/index.html
South African Reserve Bank
http://www.resbank..za/
The Central Bank

of the Russian Federation
http://www.cbr.ru

Bank of New York's
http://www.bankofny.com
Credit Lyonnais S.A.
http://www.creditlyonnais.fr7E_default.htm
NationsBank Corp.
http://www.nationsbank.com
J. P. Morgan & Co.
http://www jpmorgan.com/
TNG Euro Desk
http://euro.ing.nl/eng/inain.html
Norges Bank
http://www.norges-bank.no/english/
CS First Boston
http://www.csfb.com
Bank of Montreal
http://www.bmo.com/
1BJ International
http://www.ibjs.co.jp
Royal Bank of Scotland
http://www.rbs.co.uk

Chicago Board of Trade
http://www.cbot.com
Chicago Board Options Exchange
http://www.cboe.com
Chicago Mercantile Exchange
http://www.cme.com
Coffee. Sugar and Cocoa Exchange
http://www.csce.com
Hong Kong Futures Exchange
http://www. hkfe.com/
MidAmerica Commodity Exchange
http://www.midam.com/
Minneapolis Grain Exchange
http://www.mgex.com
Kansas City Board of Trade
http://www.kcbt.com/
New York Cotton Exchange / NYBOT
http://www.nyce.com
www.fxclub.org
259
New York Mercantile Exchange / COMEX
http://www.nymex.com
Belgium Futures & Options Exchange
http://www.belfox.be
Italian Derivatives Market
http://www.borsaitalia.it
International Petroleum Exchange
http://www.ipe.uk.com
London International Financial Futures

Exchange / London Commodities
Exchange
http://www.liffe.com
London Metals Exchange
http://www.Ime..uk
Marche A Terme International de France
http://www.Matif.fr
Mercado Espanol de Opciones Futurs

Financieros Retra Fija
http://www.meff.es
South African Futures Exchange
http://www.safex.co.za/

Futures Cm-line
http://www.futuresmag.com
Futures. Net
http://futures.net/
NumaWeb
http://www.numa.com/
Options Analysis
http://optionsanalysis.com/
Options Industry Council
http://wvvw.optionscentral.com/

Commodity Traders Consumer Report
http://ctcr.investors.net
Commodity Resource Corp.
http://www.commodity.com/index.html
Gold Eagle's
http://www.gold-eagic.com
Agriculture Network Information Center
http://www.agnic.org
Soybeans
http://www.nsr1.uiuc.edu
Energy, petrochemical and metals

markets
http://www.platts.com
Energy
http://www.wtrg.com
Energy
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Copper
http://www.copper.org
Phelps Dodge Corporation (#1 copper)
http://www.phelpsdodge.com
Aluminium
http://www. world-aluminium.org

Australian Stock Exchange
http://www.asx.com.au
Boston Stock Exchange
http://www.bostonstock.com/
www.fxclub.org
260
Chicago Stock Exchange
http://www.chicagostockex. com/
NasdaqAmcx
http://www.nasdaq-amex.com/
National Stock Exchange of India
http://www.nseindia.com/
Helsinki Stock Exchange
http://www.hse.fi/english index.hlml
Italian Stock Exchange
http://www.borsaitalia.it/
Korea Slock Exchange
http://www.kse.or.kr/
Montreal Stock Exchange
http://www.me.org/
New York Stock Exchange
http://www.nyse.com/
New Zealand Stock Excliange
http://www.nzse.co.nz
Philadelphia Stock Exchange
http://www.phix.com
Slock Exchange of Singapore
http://www.ses.com.sg/
Stock Exchange of Thailand
http://www.set.or.th/
Santiago Stock Exchange
http://www.bolsantiago.cl/ingles/index.htm
SBF-Paris Bourse
(Paris Stock Exchange)
http://www.bourse-de-paris.fr/
Vancouver Stock Exchange
http://www.vse.ca/
Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange
http://www.tase.co.il/
Tokyo Stock Exchange
http://www.tse.or.jp/eindex. html
Toronto Stock Exchange
http://www.tse.coin/
Swiss Exchange
http://www.swx.ch
London Slock Exchange
http://www.londonstockex.co.uk
Pacific Exchange
http://www.pacificex.com
International Stock Exchange
http://www.efmoody.com
Gruppe Deutsche Borse
http://www.exchange.de
Eurex
http://www.eurexchange.com
Berlin Stock Exchange
http://money.berlinerbocrse.de

Mcrill Lynch
http://www.ml.com
Salomon Smith Barney
http://www. smithbarney.com
Goldman Sachs Group. Inc.
http://www.gs.com
Morgan Grcnfell
http://www.morgan-grenfell.com
Lehman Brothers
http://www.lehman.com
Bear Stearns & Co. Inc.
http://www.beaistearns.com
www.fxclub.org
261
Morgan Stenley
http://www.ms.Com
Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. Inc.
http://www.lanston.com

Bond Market Association
http://www.bondmarkets.com
Bonds Online
http://www.bonds-online.com
, ,
Bloomberg Online
http://www.bloomberg.com
CBS MarketWatch
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/
newsroom.htx
Dun & Bradstreel Corp.
http://www.dnb.com
Fitch IBCA Inc.
http://www.fitchibca.com/home/frame.html
Financial Times
http://www.ft.com
MSNBC Business
http://www.msnbc.com
Standard & Poor's Equity Investor

Services
http://www.stockinfo.standardpoor.com
Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/business/front.htm
Skate Russia
http://www.skate.ru/
Market News
http://www.economeister.com/indcx.htm
Economic Times India
http://www.economictimes.com/
Euromoney Online
http://www.euromoney.com/
Far Eastern Economic Review
http://www.feer.com
INO Global Markets
http://www.ino.com
Dr Yardeni
http://www.yardeni.com
CNN
http://www.cnnfn.com
Dow Jones
http://www.dj.com
Reuters
http://www.reuters.com
Yahoo! Finance
http://quote.yahoo.com/
Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/
PC Trader
http://www.fixedincome.com
Pensions & Investments
http://www.pionhne.com
SmartMoney
http://www.smartmoney.com
South China Morning Post Markets Post
http://www.scmp.corn/news/markets/topm
ark.idc
www.fxclub.org
262
StreetNel
http://www.streetnet.com
InterQuote
http://www.interquote.com
Data Transmission Network (DTN)
http://www.dtn.com
Wall Street Journal
http://www.wsj.com
Barrorfs
http://www.barrons.com
The New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com
The Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com
Fcedstuffs
http://www.feedstuffs.com
ABCNews
http://abcnews.go.com
BBC
http://bbc.co.uk
FutureSource
http://www.futuresource . com
AFX News
http://www.afe-news.com
FOREX
First Union Foreign Exchange
http://www.firstunion.com/fx
FX Week
http://www.fxweek.com
CMC
http://www.forex-cmc.co.uk
OANDA
http://www.oanda.com/
Thomas Cook Group Ltd
http://www.fx4business. com

Duff & Phelps Credit Raring Co.
http://www.dcrco.com
Dun & Bradstreet Corp.
http://www.dnb.com
Fitch IBCA
http://www.fitchibca.com
Fortune
http://www.fortune.com
Barren's
http://www.barrons.com
Gomez Advisors
http://www.gomez.com
ThcStrcet.com
http://www.thestreet.com
www.fxclub.org
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18. . . .: +, 1996.
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1998.
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21. ., . ., . . . .: +, 1998.
22. ., . . .: , 1997.
23. . ., . ., . . . .: , 1998.
24. Schwager J. Futures Fundamental Analysis. New York, John Wiley & Sons,
1995.
25. Frumkin N. Guide to Economic Indicators. M. E. Sharpe Inc, New York,
London, 1990.
26. Frumkin N. Tracking Americas Economy. M. E. Sharpe Inc, New York, London,
1992.
27. Grabbe J. O. International Financial Markets. Prentice Hall, Engl. Cliffs, New
Jersey, 1994.
28. Holden K., Peel D. A., Thompson J. L. Economic forecasting: an introduction.
Cambridge Univ. Press, 1990.
29. Klopfenstein G., Stein J. Trading Currency Cross Rates. J. Wiley & Sons, New
York e.a., 1995.
30. Luca C. Trading in the Global Currency Markets. Prentice Hall, Engl. Cliffs,
New Jersey, 1994.
31. Makridakis S., Wheelwright S. C. Forecasting Methods for Management. J. Wiley
& Sons, New York e.a., 1989
32. Niemira M. P., Zukovski G. F. Trading the Fundumentals (The taders complete
guide to interpreting economic indicators & monetary policy). IRWIN, Chicago e.a.,
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33. The Handbook of Financial Futures A Guide for Investors and Professional
Financial Managers/ Rothstein N. H. (ed.) McGraw+Hill Book Company, New York
e.a., 1984.
34. Van Horn J. C. Financial Market Rates and Flows. Prentice Hall, Englewood
Cliffs, New Jersey, 1994.
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, . : (095) 7270606;
www.fxclub.org.
www.fxclub.org

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