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2008

65.010.655
336.76
94
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.
.
,
2007

.................................................................................................................................... 8
1. , ....................................... 12
1.1. ................................................................. 12
1.2. ................................................... 13
1.3. ................................................... 13
1.4. ......................... 15
2. ...................................................... 16
2.1. ............................................................. 16
2.1.1. ................................................................. 17
2.1.2. 0 .................................................. 18
2.1.3. ................................................................ 19
2.1.4. .......................................................... 21
2.1.5. European Commission ......................... 26
2.1.6. ()
European Parliament ................................................................................ 26
2.2. .......................................... 27
2.3. ................................................................... 28
2.4. ........................ 38
2.5. ................................................................................................... 41
2.6. ................................................................... 43
3. , ..................................................... 44
3.1.
...................................................................................................... 44
3.2. ........................................................................ 46
3.2.1. ................................................................. 46
3.2.2. ........................................................................................... 47
3.2.3. , 1991 . ............................................................................ 49
3.2.4. ......................................................................................... 49
3.2.5. ........................................................... 51
3.2.6. ............................................................. 51
3.2.7. 11 2001 . ..................... 52
3.2.8. ............................................... 53
3.2.9. ....................................................................... 54
www.fxclub.org


3.3. ........................................................................................................................... 55
3.3.1. , ........................... 56
3.3.2. .................................................................................. 56
3.3.3. ......................................................................... 57
3.4. ...................................................................... 58
3.5. .............................................................................. 61

4. ................................................................................................ 64
4.1.
................................................... 64
4.2. ......................................................................... 66
4.2.1. ............................................................................................................. 66
4.2.2. ....................................................................................... 74
4.2.3. ......................................................................................................... 76
4.2.4. ................................................................................................. 79
4.2.5. .................................................................................. 80
4.2.6. .......................................................................................................... 83
4.2.7. ................................................................................................... 84
4.3. 0
.............................................................................. 85
4.3.1. ...................................................... 85
4.3.2. () .... 86
4.3.3. 0 .................................................. 87
4.3.4. ..................................................................................... 87
4.3.5. () ....................................... 87
4.3.6. () ............. 89
4.3.7. () .................................. 90
4.4. .................................................................................. 91
4.4.1. ,
................................................................... 92
4.4.2. .......................................................................... 92
4.4.3. , .............. 93
4.5.
.............................................................................................. 93
4.5.1. ............................................ 93
4.5.2. ..................... 96
4.5.3. 1 2004 . .......................... 97
4.5.4. SWAP ............................................ 103
4.6. ....................................................................................... 106
4.7. .................................................................................... 110
4.8. .............................................................. 117
5. ........................................................................................................ 122
5.1. .............................................................................. 122
5.2.
............................................................................................ 123
www.fxclub.org

5.2.1. ................................... 123


5.2.2.
......................................................................................... 124
5.2.3. ................. 126
5.2.4. ............................................ 128
5.2.5. ............................................................................. 130
5.3. ................................................... 132
5.3.1. .............................................................................. 132
5.3.2. ..................................................................................... 136
5.3.3. ......................................................................... 139
5.3.4. 0 ............................................................. 139
5.4. ............................................................................................ 140
5.4.1. .................................................................... 142
5.4.2. ........................................................................... 154
6. .............................................................................................. 159
6.1. ..................................................................................................... 159
6.2. ................................................................................................ 160
7. ...................................................................... 163
7.1. ........................................................................ 164
7.2. ............................................................................ 169
7.2.1. ..................................................................................... 170
7.2.2. ..................................................................................... 171
7.2.3. ........................................................................... 172
7.2.4. ............................................. 183
7.2.5. ...................................................... 185
7.2.6.
................................................................................................. 185
7.2.7. .............................................. 186
7.3. ......................................................................................................... 186
7.3.1. ........................................................................... 187
7.3.2. ,
(
) .................................................................................................... 189
7.3.3. ...................................................................... 191
7.3.4. ...................................................................... 192
7.3.5. ............................................................... 192
7.3.6. ............................................... 192
7.3.7. ....................................... 193
7.3.8. ...... 194
7.4. .............................................................................. 195
7.4.1. .................................... 195
7.4.2. ........................... 197
7.4.3. .................................................................... 198
7.4.4. ............................... 199
www.fxclub.org

7.5.

7.6.

7.7.

7.8.

7.9.

7.10.

7.11.
7.12.

7.4.5. , , ............................................. 200


7.4.6. .......................... 202
7.4.7. ............................................ 203
............................................................................... 203
7.5.1.
( ) .............................................................................. 203
7.5.2. .................................................................................... 204
.................................................................................... 209
7.6.1. ................................................................... 209
7.6.2.
( ) ..................................................... 210
....................................................... 210
7.7.1. ................................... 210
7.7.2. ................................ 212
7.7.3.
........................................................ 212
7.7.4. ........................................................................ 213
7.7.5. .............. 215
7.7.6. ................................................................... 216
.......................................................................................... 216
7.8.1. .............................................................................. 216
7.8.2. ............................... 219
7.8.3. ......................................................................... 219
7.8.4. .................. 219
.............................................................................................. 220
7.9.1. ............................................................................ 220
7.9.2. () ....................................................... 221
7.9.3. .................................................................... 222
............................................................... 223
7.10.1. ..................................................... 223
7.10.2. ................................................ 225
7.10.3. INSEE ....................................................................................................... 226
.......................................................................... 226
7.11.1. ................................. 226
....................................................................... 229
7.12.1. ISM (NAPM), PMI
() ............................................................................... 230
7.12.2. ............................................................. 232
7.12.3. ............................ 232
7.12.4.
.............................................................. 233
7.12.5.
..................................................... 233
7.12.6. Empire State Manufacturing Survey ................................................ 234
www.fxclub.org

7.12.7. APICS APICS Business Outlook Index ...................... 234


7.12.8. ............................... 234
7.13. ............................................................ 236
.................................................................................................................... 242
1. ......................................................................................... 242
2. () ....................... 246
3. .............................................................................................. 248
4. .................................................................................................... 253
5. .................................................... 256
................................................................................................................... 263
...................................................................................................................... 264
.................................................................................................................... 274
.... 277
......................... 280

www.fxclub.org

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25.06.03 .

Primary Discount Rate

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0,25

UK

Repo Rate

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06.11.03 .

+0,25

EU(12)

Main Refinancing
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0,50

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0,50

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15.07.03 .

Overnight Rate target

2,50

20.01.04 .

0,25

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New Zealand

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99

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(. 4.5.6). ,
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3,75%. ,

www.fxclub.org

100

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08:02 :
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EUR/JPY . 0
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www.fxclub.org

103

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www.fxclub.org

104

FOREX
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- Long

- Short

USD/CHF

0,2

0,4

EUR/USD

0,3

0,5

GBP/USD

1,3

1,5

USD/JPY

0,2

0,4

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0,9

EUR/GBP

0,4

0,2

EUR/JPY

0,6

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USD/CAD

0,7

0,5

GBP/JPY

1,9

2,1

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0,8

1,0

www.fxclub.org

www.fxclub.org

JPY

JPY

JPY

08.12.2003 11:13

08.12.2003 21:04

08.12.2003 21:04

100 000

100 000

100 000

107,63

107,64

107,42

0
204,39
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100 000

JPY

107,637

204,39

08.12.03 21:43

08.12.03 01:00 5000,00

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Internet Dealing System.

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www.fxclub.org

108

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109

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112

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113

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114

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19.05.2003 .
02:00. : .
,
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www.fxclub.org

115


100 USD/JPY, , :
1 100 000,00 JPY = 11 000 USD 100 USD/JPY.
, ,
:
100 000,00 JPY = 1 100 000,00 JPY 1 200 000,00 JPY.

. 4.7.2. USD/JPY, . BOJ

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www.fxclub.org

116

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www.fxclub.org

117

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www.fxclub.org

118

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www.fxclub.org

119

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www.fxclub.org

120

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www.fxclub.org

121

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.

www.fxclub.org

5.

5.1.
,
( ) (
) , . . .
.
, , 
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,
,
,
, . .

.
www.fxclub.org

123

, 
, 
.

. 5.1.1.

5.2.


5.2.1.

(, )
(
) ,
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,
, .


www.fxclub.org

124


,
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5.2.2.


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,
. 
www.fxclub.org

125

,

, 
, , .

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, ,
(yield);
.

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. (yield) 3%. 1
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(100 95) + 3 = 8 ( 
).
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, . . , 
.
www.fxclub.org

126

, 
,
.

. 5.2.1.

5.2.3.


, 

,

.
, 
.
. ,

.

,
.

, 
.
www.fxclub.org

127



.
, 

,
.

( ) 
( 
) 
.
(Expansionary Policy,
Easy Money Policy). 
. , FED 
,
, 
, . FED
,
;
,
, 
.
(Contractionary Policy,
Tight Money Policy).  ,
, 
,
. FED
,
.
,
, ,

( 
);  ,
, 
.
www.fxclub.org

128

5.2.4.

,
( ) 

.
.
,
, .

, 
, . .
, (
, ). 
Treasury Bill (T5Bill, ).
,
, 
, 
.
105year Treasury Note (105 5
).
Gilts. , 
.
JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) 
: Bank of Japan 10 20
JGB , 
 .
105 Bund
.
FOREX 10 , 
, ,
10 Bund, 10
JGB 10 Gilt.
( ) 10 

www.fxclub.org

129

. 
( )
.

;
. 

. 

, . .
. Treasury5Bonds
(T5Bond, ). 
.
( ),
. ,
30
. 
. 
( )  
.
. 
30 
( ),
30 
10 . , 

.

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.
Eurobond ().
, 
, . 
,
. 
, 
www.fxclub.org

130

, 
.
, 
.
, .

5.2.5.


.
(
, , 
, , , 
, ) 
.
,

.
, ,
, :
, , 
;

.



(. 5.2.1):
Moodys (http://www.moodys.com);
Standard & Poors (http://www.sandp.ru);
Fitch Ibca. (http://www.fitchibca.com).

.

www.fxclub.org

131

D.
(+) (),

.
, ,
.
, , , ,
.
5.2.1

/
1

Fitch
Ibca
4

Aaa

AAA

AAA

Aa

AA

AA


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BBB

BBB

,
,

Ba

BB

BB

,
,

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CCC

CCC

Moodys S & P

5


;


;

,

www.fxclub.org

132


. 5.2.1

Ca

CC

CC

10

11

SD


 .
.
.
.

.

5.3.

5.3.1.
. 
. 
60 . XIX . ,

, ( 
) . 
, 
, 
,
www.fxclub.org

133

1848 . 82 

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,
. 
() 
1865 . .


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(initial margin), 
.
2 10%
, . 
,
. 
() (variation margin). 
www.fxclub.org

134

,
. 
, margin
call . ,
,
.
(cash settlement)
(deliverable). 
, 

() .

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Australian Dollar

100 000

H, M, U, Z

AD

0.0001 ($10)

1 pt = $10

62 500

H, M, U, Z

BP

0.0002 ($12,50)

1 pt = $6,25

Canadian Dollar

100 000

H, M, U, Z

CD

0.0001 ($10)

1 pt = $10

Euro-Currency

125 000

H, M, U, Z

EC

0.0001 ($12,50)

1 pt = $12,50
1 pt = $12,50
1 pt = $12,50

British Pound

Japanese Yen
Swiss Franc

1 250 000

H, M, U, Z

JY

0.000001
($12,50)

125 000

H, M, U, Z

SF

0.0001 ($12,50)

E-Mini S & P

$50 ! Index val. H, M, U, Z

ES

0.25 pt
($12,50)

1pt = $50

E-Mini NASDAQ
100

$20 ! Index val. H, M, U, Z

EN

0.50 pt
($10,00)

1pt = $20

$100 ! Index val. H, M, U, Z

ND

0.50 pt ($50)

1pt = $100

$5 ! Index val. H, M, U, Z

NK

5 pt ($25)

1pt = $5

$250 ! Index val. H, M, U, Z

SP

0.10 pt ($25)

1pt = $250

NASDAQ 100
NIKKEI 225
S & P 500

www.fxclub.org

135

,
. ,
, , , (H, M, U, Z). 
.
, , .
.
1. , ,
, 3  , 
, . .
, , , . ,

3 .
2.
, . 

JPY/USD.

, 
.
,
, 
.

(pit)  .
70 . 
,

. 70 .

,
,
.
.
, 
, 
: , , , , , , ,
.
www.fxclub.org

136

. 

(Fed Funds rate). 
,
. ,
.
35 .
Fed Funds Fed Funds rate 
, 3
3 .
, 3

USD/JPY.
35 (Euribor). 
3 euroEuro (euribor). 
3
euroEuro
EUR/USD.
35 .
3 
. 3

USD/CHF.
35 ( ). 
3 .
3 

GBP/USD.

5.3.2.
,
( 
)

.
(premium) ( )
www.fxclub.org

137


. .
, .
( ) 

. 
( )

.
(call option) ,

. ()
.
, .
(put option) ,

. .
, .
, , 
( ,
, ),
, 
.

, , . 
, , 
.
.

. 1973 . 
, 
. , ,
, . 1973 . 

. 1984 .

.
www.fxclub.org

138


, ,
, ,
. 80 . 
.
: .

.

( 
).

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( ).
, 
, 
.
,
.
:
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;
;
;
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,
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;
, . .
. 

.
www.fxclub.org

139

5.3.3.
Forward contract (deal) 
, 

. , 
, 
, . . 
.
,
.

.

5.3.4. 4

 .
CBOT (http//www.cbot.com) Chicago Board of Trade.
: , , ,
, , , , , 
, , 
, , Dow Jones.
: , , , ,
, , , Dow Jones, 
, .
CME (http//www.cme.com) Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
: , ,
, , , , 
, , , 
, , , OSB
(Oriented Strand Board), S & P 500, Mini S & P, FTSE
100, MMI, NASDAQ 100, Nikkei 225, Russell 2000, S & P MidCap 400,
EuroYen, Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR (1 month), 
.
www.fxclub.org

140

NYMEX (http//www.nymex.com) Division of New York Mer5


cantile Exchange.
: ,  ,
, , , , .
: ,  , 
, , .
COMEX (http//www.nymex.com) Division of New York Mer5
cantile Exchange.
: , , .
CSCE (http//www.csce.com) Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange,
Inc.
: , , , , 
, , , #11 (
), #14 (), .
: , , , ,
, , #11 ().
KCBT Kansas City Board of Trade.
: , MiniValue Line, ValueLine.
: .
CTN (http//www.nyce.com) New York Cotton Exchange.
: , ,
.
: , , .
LIFFE (http//www.liffe.com) London International Financial
Futures Exchange.
EOE European Options Exchange.
Deutsche Terminboerse (DTB).
Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX).

5.4.

.
, .
www.fxclub.org

141

.
, ,
, ,
( 
, , . .),
( : 
, , ,  . .).
, 
.

(, 
). 
,
.

,
,
(, , ,
), 
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, 
, ,

. 
, 
, . . .

.
1. , 
, GBP/USD FTSE
100/DJIA.
, , , 
, .
2.
,
.
www.fxclub.org

142


. 5.4.1.

. 5.4.1.

5.4.1.
4
4 .
1.  (The Dow Jones Industrial
Average, DJIA).
2.  (The Dow Jones Transporta
tion Average, DJTA).
3.  (The Dow Jones Utility Ave
rage, DJUA).
4.  (The Dow Jones Composite Ave
rage, DJCA), .
 
 (The Wall Street Journal).
, 


. ,
, .
www.fxclub.org

143

.
, 
, ,

, .
DJTA DJUA,
, DJIA
.
, 
, 
, , ,
.
4
 ,
,
.
.
, 
.
(divisor),
, 
. .
31 2002 . :
DJIA 0,142 799 2;
DJTA 0,232 835 26;
DJUA 1,714 926 23.
5
, .
A = 26, B = 20, C = 45, D = 17, . .
27.

37. , 
25.
, :
,
www.fxclub.org

144

(divisor), ,
, .
(A + B + D + E) / = 27.
,
= (26 + 20 + 37 + 17) / 27 = 3,704.
5 (The Dow Jones Indust5
rial Average, DJIA) 
30 .

2004 . . 5.4.1.
26 1896 . 
, . 
,
,
.

. 
.
 
, 100
 
, .
, 
. 1884 . 11 , (9) 
, 
.
,
, ,
.
, 
 7 1896 . 1916 .
DJIA 20 ; 1928 .
30 . , 1928 ., 

.
www.fxclub.org

145

5.4.1
DJIA 2004 .
Ticker /
Sedol

Company

Primary Group

3M Co.

MMM

Industrial Diversified

Alcoa Inc.

AA

Aluminum

Altria Group Inc.

MO

Tobacco

American Express Co.

AXP

Diversified Financial

AT & T Corp.

Fixed-Line Communications

Boeing Co.

BA

Aerospace

Caterpillar Inc.

CAT

Heavy Machinery

Citigroup Inc.

Diversified Financial

Coca-Cola Co.

KO

Soft Drinks

E. I. DuPont de Nemours & Co.

DD

Chemicals Commodity

Eastman Kodak Co.

EK

Recreational Products & Services

Exxon Mobil Corp.

XOM

Oil Companies Major

General Electric Co.

GE

Industrial Diversified

General Motors Corp.

GM

Automobile Manufactuters

Hewlett-Packard Co.

HPQ

Computers

Home Depot Inc.

HD

Retailers Specialty

Honeywell International Inc.

HON

Industrial Diversified

Intel Corp.

INTC

Semiconductors

International Business Machines Corp.

IBM

Computers

International Paper Co.

IP

Paper Products

J. P. Morgan Chase & Co.

JPM

Banks Ex-S&L

Johnson & Johnson

JNJ

Pharmaceuticals

McDonald's Corp.

MCD

Restaurants

Merck & Co. Inc.

MRK

Pharmaceuticals

Microsoft Corp.

MSFT

Software

Procter & Gamble Co.

PG

Household Products Nondurable

SBC Communications Inc.

SBC

Fixed-Line Communications

United Technologies Corp.

UTX

Aerospace

Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

WMT

Retailers Broadline

Walt Disney Co.

DIS

Broadcasting

www.fxclub.org

146

 DJ U. S. Total
Market Index 28% 
($8,9 31 2002 .).
 
, .
, ,

: 
.
:
(Life High) 11 993 .
24.09.99 .;
(Life Low) 41,2 . 1932 .
( ).
5 (The Dow Jones Trans5
portation Average, DJTA) , 
20
(, ).

2004 . . 5.4.2.
 
, 

. , 1884 .
, Dow Jones & Company,
Wall Street Journal,
, New York
Central Union Pacific,
Pacific Mail Steamship Western Union. 
.
.
1896 . 20 , 18 
,
. 
. 8 1896 .
48,55 . Union
Pacific ( , )
www.fxclub.org

147

5.4.2
DJTA 2004 .

Ticker /
Sedol

Company

Primary Group

Alexander & Baldwin Inc.

ALEX

Marine Transport

AMR Corp.

AMR

Airlines

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

BNI

Railroads

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.

CHRW

Trucking

CNF Inc.

CNF

Trucking

Continental Airlines Inc. Cl B

CAL

Airlines

CSX Corp.

CSX

Railroads

Delta Air Lines Inc.

DAL

Airlines

Expeditors International of Washington Inc.

EXPD

Air Freight

FedEx Corp.

FDX

Air Freight

GATX Corp.

GMT

Industrial Services

J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.

JBHT

Trucking

Norfolk Southern Corp.

NSC

Railroads

Northwest Airlines Corp.

NWAC

Airlines

Ryder System Inc.

Transportation Services

Southwest Airlines Co.

LUV

Airlines

Union Pacific Corp.

UNP

Railroads

United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B

UPS

Air Freight

USF Corp.

USFC

Trucking

Yellow Roadway Corp.

YELL

Trucking

, Delta Air Lines, Federal Express


and Ryder System.

, . ,

.
, 
, 
. ,

.
www.fxclub.org

148

5 (The Dow Jones Utility


Average, DJUA)
15 , 5 .

2004 . . 5.4.3.

; 1929 .
, ,
,
. , 
, 
.
5.4.3
DJUA 2004 .

Ticker /
Sedol

Company
Alexander & Baldwin Inc.

ALEX

Primary Group
Marine Transport

AMR Corp.

AMR

Airlines

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

BNI

Railroads

C. H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.

CHRW

Trucking

CNF Inc.

CNF

Trucking

Continental Airlines Inc. Cl B

CAL

Airlines

CSX Corp.

CSX

Railroads

Delta Air Lines Inc.

DAL

Airlines

Expeditors International of Washington Inc.

EXPD

Air Freight

FedEx Corp.

FDX

Air Freight

GATX Corp.

GMT

Industrial Services

J. B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.

JBHT

Trucking

Norfolk Southern Corp.

NSC

Railroads

Northwest Airlines Corp.

NWAC

Airlines

Ryder System Inc.

Transportation Services

Southwest Airlines Co.

LUV

Airlines

Union Pacific Corp.

UNP

Railroads

United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B


USF Corp.
Yellow Roadway Corp.

UPS
USFC
YELL

www.fxclub.org

Air Freight
Trucking
Trucking

149

,
. 

.
, 
100 100 , 
. 
.
18 , 6 
, 1 1929 ., 20,
2 1938 . 15
.
NASDAQ (National Association of Securities
Dealers Automated Quotations)
National Association of Securities Dealers 

, 
. NASD
, 
, , 
.
NASD 1939 . 
(SEC)
(1938 .),
1934 . 
.
NASD 27 , NASD
13 . NASD 
, NASD 

.
NASDAQ 
, 1971 .
5000 ,
, , 
.
www.fxclub.org

150

NASDAQ 
, 

. 
500 , 
, 
2000 . 61 092 . NASDAQ
, 
.
NASDAQ
, ,
. NASDAQ 

. NASDAQ
:
,
, 
/ ;
(ECN Electronic Com
munications Network) , 
/
.
NASDAQ Composite Index. 8 1971 . 
100 .
, 
NASDAQ. 

.
 

, . NASDAQ Composite Index
,
, 
. 4862
, . 
NASDAQ Composite
www.fxclub.org

151

Index ,
S & P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA),
30 .
NASDAQ Composite Index:
(Life High) 4816,35 .
24.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 993,01 .
12.01.98 .
NASDAQ5100 Index. 100
( ) ,
NASDAQ. , , 
NASDAQ ( )
, 
100 000 .
NASDAQ Financial5100 Index. 100
, NASDAQ.
31 1985 .
250 .
NASDAQ National Market Composite Index. 
NASDAQ Composite Index. 
, NASDAQ Composite Index,
NASDAQ National Market. 10
1984 . 100 .
STANDART & POORS
Standard & Poors Composite 500 Index.
400 , 20 , 40
40 . .
80% , 
 . 
$73 $75 .
Standard & Poors Composite 500 Index:
(Life High) 1553,11 .
24.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 38,98 .
19.12.57 .
www.fxclub.org

152

Standard & Poors 400 Index (S & P Midcap). S & P


500, 400 ,
$85 $6,8 .
Standard & Poors 100. S & P 500,
100 ,
. OEX 
,
.
Value Line Composite. 
, .
, 
,
,
(
).
Wilshire 5000. , 
, .
,
, 
, ,
7000. . 
, S & P 500,
, , Wilshire 5000
S & P 500.
4
NYSE INDEX
NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) Index.

,  
,
 
,
(
, ).
, 
, NYSE .
www.fxclub.org

153

 
. 
 , 
 .
AMEX

, .
AMEX Major Market Index ( AMEX).
20
.

. 
, 
, 
. , 15
. 

.
AMEX Market Value Index ( 
).
: , 
,
. 
1973 .
800 ,
, 
, , , 
.
,
, 
, , 
, .
.
. 22.10.2003 . 

. , 
www.fxclub.org

154

FOREX,

. , Dow Jones,
, 
. Dow Jones 1,5% ,
NASDAQ 2,2% (. 5.4.2).

. 5.4.2. EUR/USD, .

5.4.2.

FT5SE
FT5SE 100 
, footsie ( 100). 
,
www.fxclub.org

155

100 
.
70%
.
FTSE 100:
(Life High) 9869 .
30.12.99 .;
(Life Low) 6950 .
23.07.84 .
FT5SE 30 Share Index, Financial Times Industrial Ordinary Share
Index. 1935 .
30 . 
,
30
30 .
FT5SE Mid 250. 
, 20% 
. 250 , 
FTSE 100. 1985 .

Nikkei 225. . 
225 ,
.
Nihon Keizai Shim
bun. 
.
Nikkei (
nihon keizai nihon  ,
keizai , ). 225 
, . 
, 
, DJIA. 1950 .
Nikkey 225:
(Life High) 38 916 .
29.12.89 .;
www.fxclub.org

156

(Life Low) 85,25 .


06.07.50 .
Topix. ,
1968 . , 1 .
JPN. 
, 210 , 

. JPN ,
Nikkei.

CAC540. . 
40
, .
, , 
.
CAC40:
(Life High) 93,99 .
31.01.01 .;
(Life Low) 53 .
23.02.01 .
General. . 
250 .

DAX
DAX 30, 
30 (
3 ) .
.

Xetra DAX, DAX 30.
, 
www.fxclub.org

157

. DAX 100 
CDAX 320 .
(Life High) 8136 .
07.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 931 .
29.12.88 .

Swiss Perfor5
mance Index (SPI), SPI (SPIX), Swiss
Market Index (SMI), SMI (SMIC),
Swiss Bond Indices (SBI). ,
.
SMI 21 .
1 1 
.

TSE 300,
14 
.


Hang Seng
Index, 33 ,
70% .
4 : 
, , , 
.
Hang Seng Index:
(Life High) 18 397,57 .
28.03.00 .;
(Life Low) 58,61 .
31.08.67 .
www.fxclub.org

158

. 5.4.4
.
5.4.4


New York

Toronto
London

DJ Indus

9293,80

Jun 18

NASDAQ

1677,14

Jun 18

NYSE Comp

5706,06

Jun 18

S & P 500

1010,09

Jun 18

Russell 2000

457,51

Jun 18

Wilshire 5000

9646,42

Jun 18

TSX 300

7103,49

Jun 18

FTSE 100

4205,00

Intraday

FTSE 250

5081,80

Intraday

Frankfurt

Xetra DAX

3310,63

Intraday

Paris

CAC40

3212,64

Intraday

Tokyo

Nikkei 225

9110,51

Close

Nikkei 300

172,62

Hong Kong

Hang Seng

9993,39

Intraday

Sydney

All Ords

3070,90

Close

DJ EURope

STOXX 600

210,66

Intraday

STOXX 50

2503,04

Intraday

EURoSTOXX 50

www.fxclub.org

25

Close

6.

, 
, 
.
, 
,
. 
, , 
.

, ,
. ,
,

.
:
;
;
.

6.1.

,

.

.
, ,
.
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160

6.2.
() 
.

, 
, , , , 
, , .
4 ,
: , , , .
,

, 4 :
(, ), (), (), 
(, ).
. 6.2.1. 
: .

. 6.2.1.


,
, ,
www.fxclub.org

161

,
.
.

, ,
(
, ,
, ).
 
 ,
,
, 
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. , 
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( ,
, .);
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( , 
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www.fxclub.org

162

, 
( );
( 
,
. .);
(
,
);
( 
, . .).

www.fxclub.org

7.


, 
( ,
, , ,
. .). 
.
.
, .

, , 
, , 
. . .
,
( ). 
.
, ,
,
.

. , 16:30
18:00 ().

, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times,
New York Times , Business
Week. 

, 
.
www.fxclub.org

164

7.1.
GDP (Gross domestic product) 
(). () 
.
, 
, .
, 
, .
7.1.2 
1999 2003 .

, 
.
. 
,
, ,
. . 
, 
,
.


() Gross national product (GNP).

. 7.1.1. /

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165

.
1.
. 

, 
.
2.

(
). .

4 
: (C, Consumption),
(I, Investments), (G,
Goverment purchases) , . . 
(X M, eXport iMport):
GDP = C + I + G + (X M).
(C) 3 :
( 3 ) (durable
goods , . .), ( 3 )
(nondurable goods , , )
(services). durable goods 
15%, nondurables 31%, services 54%
. , C 
56% , , 
.
(I) 14% , 
(G) , ,
. . 17%, , ,
(X M) 13%. ,
, 
,
(. . (X M) ).

: 
, ( 
www.fxclub.org

166

),
.
GDP = W + Q + R + P + T,
GDP ;
W , 
,
,
;
Q ;
R ;
P ;
T ( ).

, 
,
. 
:
1) ( 
, , ,

, ,
(, 
. .); 
, );
2) (
, 
).
(,
, . .

) ( 
, 
).
,


www.fxclub.org

167

. , :
, , , , 
, ,
, , , ,
.

, 
, 
.

, ,
, 

. (
), , 
. , 
, 
,
. 
.

, ( 
) 
,
. .
( ).
,
.

, 
. 
( ,
).
, 
. 
, (
) .
www.fxclub.org

168

( ), 
( , Real GDP).
GDP Advance () 
.
, .
: Advance Provisional
(Revised) Final.
: 16:30 , , 
, .
GDP Provisional (Revised)
() . 
() (Advance).
: 16:30 , , 
, .

. 7.1.2. GDP ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus1chart.pdf

www.fxclub.org

169

GDP Final () 
.
(Provisional).
.
: 16:30 , ,
, .
: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
(http://www.bea.doc. gov/bea/dn1.htm).
. 7.1.1 , , 
, 2003 .
2004 .
7.1.1
, , ,

2003 GDP Final 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 2003

2002

2001

2000

2004
Forecast

US Y/Y

+2,0

+3,1

+8,2

+4,1

+3,1

+2,2

+0,5

+3,7

+4,0

EUR-zone Y/Y

+0,7

+0,1

+0,3

+0,6

+0,4

+0,9

+1,6

+3,4

+1,6

EUR-zone Q/Q

0,0

0,1

+0,4

+0,3

Germany Y/Y

+0,4

0,7

-0,2

+0,2

0,1

+0,2

+0,8

+3,0

+0,5

Germany Q/Q

0,2

0,2

+0,2

+0,2

Japan Y/Y

+3,9

+1,4

+4,0

+7,0

+2,0

+1,2

0,7

+3,2

+2,0

UK Y/Y

+1,9

+2,1

+2,1

+2,8

+2,3

+1,7

+2,3

+3,0

+2,7

7.2.

. , 
, .
( . inflatio )

18611865 . 
. I 
. 

, 
20 .
www.fxclub.org

170

, 

, 
.


. ,
, 
.  , 

.

.

. , , ,
.

, .
, 
. ,
, .

7.2.1.
, ,
. , 

. 
, 
.
, , 
10% . 

,
.

.
www.fxclub.org

171

20 200%
. , 
.

. 
: 
33 000%.
1992 ., 
2600% .
, ,
. ,
.
.
, . . 
. 
, , 
,
.

.

7.2.2.
, ,

. 
.
(demandpull inflation)

. 
.
( ),

100% ,
(
).
, .
www.fxclub.org

172

,

.
(costpush inflation)
.

.
, ,
, 
.
. 

,
. 
.
, , . 
, , ,
.
,
, , , 
, .

7.2.3.
,
, :
Consumer Price Index, CPI;
Producer Price Index, PPI.
CPI
(Consumer Price Index, CPI)
, 
, 
, (
, , , ,
. .). , .
www.fxclub.org

173


.

, 
,

.
19 000 57 000
80%
. 44,1%
, 55,9% . 85

.
(BLS) 10 
. , CPI 

, , , .
, 
. 0,51,5%.
, 
.
:
PIU ,
, ;
CPIW
.
, 
,
CoreCPI, 
(CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY).
, ,
 , 
; ,
.
CPI
(. 7.2.1).
www.fxclub.org

174

. 7.2.1. CPI ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus8chart.pdf

PPI. 
,
CPI PPI
. , , 
,
(. 7.2.2). 
, , 
.
, 0,2 
, .
: 16:30 , 13 (
).
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics
(http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm).

(RPI Retail Price Index), 0,5
www.fxclub.org

175

. 7.2.2. CPI PPI

CPI4U, % , Seasonally Adjusted http://data.bls.gov

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1993

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.2

1994

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

1995

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

1996

0.5

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

1997

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

1998

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

1999

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

2000

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

2001

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.1

2002

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

2003

0.3

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.2

0.2

+0,5%. , 
, . . 
:

;
( ), flat.
www.fxclub.org

176

. 20.01.2004 . 4
.

.
+0,4% , +0,3%, .
0,1%, +1,3% ., +1,2%, . 
+1,3% (. 7.2.3).

: , , 
, CPI . 
CPI,
.
CPI 32% , 44% 
. , 
, , ; ,


. 7.2.3. GBP/USD, . CPI

www.fxclub.org

177

, 
.
PPI
(Producer Price Index, PPI)
,
. :
(, . .)
( ). 
,
.
22 000 , 3000 , 75 000
. , 
18 . , ,
, , .
, .
,
. ,
PPI ,
, , 
. , 
1978 .
Wholesales Price Index (WPI).
10 000 , 
3500 . 
WPI.
,
(. 7.2.4). PPI
, , ,
, 
. 
CPI.
,

. CorePPI = (PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY). 
, 
.
www.fxclub.org

178

. 7.2.4. PPI ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus9chart.pdf
Seasonally Adjusted Finished goods less food and energy

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1993 0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

1.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

1994 0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

1995

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.2

0.1

1996 0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

1997 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

1998 0.1

0.1

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

1.0

1999 0.1 0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.3

0.0

0.1

2000 0.1 0.3

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.1

2001 0.4 0.3 0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.2

0.1

2002 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3 0.1

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.6

2003 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.7

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Annual

0.0(P) 0.5(P) 0.1(P) 0.1(P)

P: Preliminary. All indexes are subject to revision four months after original publication

www.fxclub.org

179

: 16:30 , 11 (
).
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics
(http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.toc.htm).
HICP
Harmonized Index Consumer Prices
.
, , 
ECB . 
,
. CPI 
.
CoreHICP 
, ,
.
.

.
GDP Deflator

( ) , . . 
,

, . 
. 
.
(Implicit Price Deflator), 
. 
; 20 ,
.
( revised) 
.

(CPI)
. CPI,
www.fxclub.org

180

, 
, 
,
. 

. . 
. 7.2.5.
: 16:30 , .
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).

. 7.2.5.

Import Prices
(.
7.2.6). .
(CPI) 
,

.
.

(. 7.2.7).
: 16:30 , 10 , 
Export Prices.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).
www.fxclub.org

181

. 7.2.6.

. 7.2.7. Import Prices

www.fxclub.org

182


Bea end use import indexes Item: all commodities

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1999

0.3

0.1

0.3

1.0

0.8

0.2

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.2

0.7

0.7

2000

0.4

1.9

0.2

1.4

0.3

1.4

0.0

0.2

1.2

0.4

0.0

0.7

2001

0.0

0.6

1.6

0.5

0.2

0.4

1.5

0.1

0.1

2.3

1.5

1.0

2002

0.2

0.0

1.3

1.6

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.7

0.0

0.9

0.6

2003

1.8

1.7

0.6

3.1

0.7

0.9

0.5

0.0

0.5

0.1

0.5

0.2

Export Prices
(. 7.2.8).
. 
. 

(. 7.2.9).

. 7.2.8.

www.fxclub.org

183

. 7.2.9. Export Prices

Bea end use export indexes Item: all commodities

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

0.1

0.3

1999

0.0

0.2 0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.0

2000

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1

0.0

0.2

2001

0.2

0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2

0.4

0.1

2002 0.1 0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.3 0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2 0.1

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.2

2003

0.6

0.3

: 16:30 10 , 
Import prices.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).

7.2.4.
Average hourly earnings (AHE)
Average hourly earnings (. 7.2.10)
,
. . 

(. 7.2.11).
www.fxclub.org

184

. 7.2.10.

. 7.2.11. AHE

: 16:30 , , 
Nonfarm Payrolls.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).
www.fxclub.org

185


Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1999 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.03

0.01

0.05

2000 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.07

0.05

0.04

2001 0.02 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02

0.06

0.03

2002 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05

0.04

0.06

Annual

2003 0.02 0.07 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.01(p) 0.03(p)

7.2.5.
Employment Cost Index
, ,
, 
( , . .), .

. 
(labor costs). 
.

, 
(
).
. 
 .
: 16:30 , (, ,
), 4 ( ).
: Labor Department.

7.2.6.

Unit Labour Cost
,
. 
.
, .
Productivity
www.fxclub.org

186

( ).
.

, 
.
: 16:30 , , 10
Productivity.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).

7.2.7.
Real earnings (Real Average Weekly Earnings)
(
).
1982 . 
,
.
,
,

. 
.
: 16:30 , , 
CPI ( ).
: Labor Department.

7.3.

,
,
.

; , ,
,
; , ,
,
1600 .
www.fxclub.org

187

7.3.1.
Unemployment Rate (UR)
UR (. 7.3.1)
.
60 000 375 000 . 
, 
. ,
19 , 12 .
, 

. 

,
.

. 7.3.1.
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus1chart.pdf

www.fxclub.org

188

,
, , , 
. Nonfarm Payrolls. 
. 

(. 7.3.2).
: 16:30 , , 
12 , , .

. 7.3.2. UR
Unemployment rate, %, Seasonal Adjusted (http://data.bls.gov)

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1993

7.3

7.1

7.0

7.1

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.6

6.5

1994

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

1995

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.6

5.6

1996

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.3

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.4

1997

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.7

1998

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

1999

4.3

4.4

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

2000

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

2001

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.9

5.0

5.4

5.6

5.7

2002

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.9

6.0

2003

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.0

6.1

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.0

5.9

5.7

www.fxclub.org

Annual

189

: The Bureau of Labor Statistics


(http://stats.bls.gov/cpshome.htm).

7.3.2. ,

(
)
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPR)
NFPR (. 7.3.3) 500 
340 000 (
, 
). 
, .


. 7.3.3. NFPR
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus1chart.pdf

www.fxclub.org

190

(. 7.3.4). ,
.
:
200 000 3,0%. 
Unemployment Rate, Average Workweek Hourly
Earnings
, 
. , 
NFPR , .
, , 
, 
, 
.
: 16:30 , , 
.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov/
ceshome.htm) US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).
. 03.10.2003 .
.
(Nonfarm payrolls)
57 000
25 000, (Unemployment rate)
6,1% ( 6,2%). 


. 7.3.4. NFPR

www.fxclub.org

191

,
(. 7.3.5).

. 7.3.5. NFPR

7.3.3.
Average workweek

. 

, Industrial Production ( )
Personal Income ( ), 
.
.
: 16:30 , , 
Nonfarm Payrolls.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).
www.fxclub.org

192

7.3.4.
Employment Situation
60 000
375 000 
, ,
,
.

,
 .
: 16:30 , (
).
: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.

7.3.5.
Household employment

( 60 000 ) 
, 
; , :

(selfemployed);
(, , 
), /.
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).

7.3.6.
Help5Wanted Index
, 
( ),
(51 ).
. 
, ,
www.fxclub.org

193


, .

. 
.
: 18:00 , , 
.
: The Conference Board.

7.3.7.
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims
.
. 
, 
. ,
Nonfarm Payrolls (

). , 
Jobless laims ,
Nonfarm Payrolls. 

( 7.3.6).

. 7.3.6. Jobless Claims

www.fxclub.org

194

: 16:30 , ( ,
).
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).
. 09.10.2003 .
. 
4 382 000,
(393 000). 
2003 . (. 7.3.7).

. 7.3.7.

7.3.8.

Initial Jobless Claims
, 
.

www.fxclub.org

195

, 
. 
.
, .
: 16:30 .
: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov).

7.4.
7.4.1.

Industrial Production (IP)


(Indust
rial Production (. 7.4.1))
, ,
. ,
, . IP
, 
,

, ,
(. 7.4.2).
,
255 . 1992 ., 
84,6% 
, 7,3%, 8,1%. FED

(Production diffusion index), 
( 255), 
.
: 17:15 , 15 (
).
: Federal Reserve Board
(http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/).
www.fxclub.org

196

. 7.4.1. IP ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iVus1chart.pdf

. 7.4.2. IP

www.fxclub.org

197

7.4.2.

Capacity Utilization (CAPU)



(Capacity Utilization, CAPU) +
+
( ) .
+
,

, +
.

81,5%. CAPU 85 %, +
,
. +
, +
+
(. 7.4.3).
,
+
. +
CAPU .

. 7.4.3. CAPU

www.fxclub.org

198

: 17:15 , 15+ (
) +
.
: Federal Reserve Board
(http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G17/Current/).

7.4.3.
Factory Orders
Factory Orders ,
+
. +
,
. +
+
(. 7.4.4).

. 7.4.4. Factory Orders

: 18:00 , (+
2 ).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm).
www.fxclub.org

199

7.4.4.
Durable Goods Order (DGO).

(Durable Goods Orders, (. 7.4.5)) +

3 (, , , +
. .). +
5000 . +
, ,
. 4 +
: (primary metals), ,
.
, , +

. 7.4.5. Durable Goods


: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus6chart.pdf

www.fxclub.org

200

, +
(Durable goods orders excluding
defence) (Durable goods orders excluding
transportation). ,
. +
, +
.
, +

(. 7.4.6).
: 16:30 , 26+ (
).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/m3/index.htm).

. 7.4.6. DGO

7.4.5. , ,
Business Inventories
Business Inventories (. 7.4.7) , +
.
,
,
.

(. 7.4.8). , +
www.fxclub.org

201

. 7.4.7.

. 7.4.8. Business Inventories

(Business
Inventories and Sales)
.
: , +
www.fxclub.org

202

(Inventories to Shipments Ratio, INSR).


, +
. Inventories INSR +
. ,
. +
.
: 16:30 , , 6 +
.
: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).

7.4.6.

Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale Inventories +
. +
,
, +
.
. +
.
(. 7.4.9).
: 18:00 , 10+ .
: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).

. 7.4.9. Wholesale inventories

www.fxclub.org

203

7.4.7.
Productivity and Costs

(). (
, ),
+
.
: 16:30 , 7+
( ).
: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.toc.htm.

7.5.
7.5.1.
( )
Current Account (Balance of Payments)
(. 7.5.1) +
, +
, +
.
, + , , +
. ,
+
, ( +
), ( ). +
(
) +
.
, , +
.
. (
) (+
, ).
www.fxclub.org

204

. 7.5.1. ()
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus12chart.pdf

. +
, +
, .

.
: 18:00 ,
.
: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).

7.5.2.
Trade Balance (Balance Of Trade)
(. 7.5.2)
, . .
( ).
www.fxclub.org

205

, (+
). ,
( ).
, ,
. +
, +
, , +
,
. +

;
.
,
, +
, .
+

. 7.5.2. ()

www.fxclub.org

206

, +
. , + +
,
.

( ) ,
, +
.

.
,

. , +
, ,
, , +
.
,
+
,
,
.
+
.

, .
(
, , ,
, , )
. +
, +
. :
+
+
,
. .
: ( 2 +
).
: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov).
www.fxclub.org

207

1. 13.02.2004 .

(. 7.5.3). +
+
(Michigan sentiment index)
93,1 ( 103,4, 103,8).
(International trade)
$42,5 ( $39,8 , +
$38,0 $38,4 ). +
.
2.
1990 2003 . . 7.5.1.
, 1990+ . +
( ,
,
). +

. 7.5.3. EUR/USD, .

www.fxclub.org

208


7.5.1
1990 2003 .

1990

80,860

1997

107,048

1991

31,135

1998

163,153

1992

38,186

1999

261,202

1993

69,166

2000

375,384

1994

97,188

2001

357,819

1995

95,069

2002

418,038

1996

102,869

2003

489,378


, , +
, .
,
.
, +
, +
, +
.
, +
. +
,
,
.
,

1995 1999 . , 90+ .
,
. 6,5%
,
, , . +
, , +
.
, +

.
www.fxclub.org

209

2000 2004 .
1%, , +
,
. , EUR/USD
26.10.2000 . 0,8225
1,2927 18.02.2004 .

7.6.
7.6.1.
Federal budget

.
.
+
.
,
. +
(
, +
. .) . +
,
. , +

, . +
, , +
,
. +
( )
.
+
, , , +
(
). , +
(
www.fxclub.org

210

+ ).

.
+ +
, +
.
+
+
.
: 22:00 , .
: Treasury Financial Management Service
(http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html).

7.6.2.
( )
Treasury Budget
; +
. +
,
.

, +
.
: 00:00 , 3+ ( +
).
: Treasury Financial Management Service
(http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/index.html).

7.7.
7.7.1.
Construction Data
Construction Data
. 7.7.1.
www.fxclub.org

211

. 7.7.1. Construction Data

. +
.
, +
. ( ) 17%
( ) 40% (!)
( ).
, +
, . , +
. +

, , +
.
, +
.
+
, +
.

. +
.
1 +
.
. , ,
www.fxclub.org

212

100+
1+ .

7.7.2.
Building permits
+
.
. ,
, . +
19 000 , +
, +
, .
+
+
(Index of Leading Economic Indicators).
+
. +
. +
.
: 16.30 , 3+ +
Housing Starts.
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/mtistext.html).

7.7.3.

Housing Starts and Building Permits

(
; . 7.7.2) +
, ,
. +
+
.
.
www.fxclub.org

213

, +
. Housing
starts and building permits. +
1,5 2 , +
.
.
: 16:30 , 16+ .
:
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/housing.html.

. 7.7.2.

7.7.4.
New home sales

, , (. 7.7.3).
, , +
. .
+
www.fxclub.org

214

.
. ,
+
. +

.
, ,
, . +
16% .
84% +
.

. 7.7.3.

: 18:00 , +
.
:
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/housing.html.
www.fxclub.org

215

7.7.5.

Existing Home Sales


,
.
, (
, +
+
). +
,
; ,
. +
84% ; +
16% .
, +

. ,
, +
.
. +
,

.
:
.
. +
5, , +
5 ,
, .
+
.
: 18:00 , 25+ (
).
:
(http://nar.realtor.com/news/releases.htm).
www.fxclub.org

216

7.7.6.
Construction Spending

, ,
.
.
. +
, 3+ +
.
: 18:00 , 1+ (
2 ).
: US Census Bureau
(http://www.census.gov/prod/1/constr/c30/c30.html).

7.8.
7.8.1.
Retail Sales
+
(. 7.8.1). +
. , +
.
2 :
( 3 ) .
40%, 60% .
( 3/5) +
; 2/5 +
, , . +
, ,
, , (http://
www.census.gov/).
, . +
,
. +
www.fxclub.org

217

+
, +
, +
.

. 7.8.1.
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus4chart.pdf

+
.
, +
. ,
,
, .
+ +
. + ,
. ,
. +
www.fxclub.org

218

,
+.
: 16:30 , 13+ ( +
).
: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html.
. 21.02.2003 .
.
, +
, 1,0%,
0,4%. +

2000 . +
, (. 7.8.2).

. 7.8.2. GBP/USD, .

www.fxclub.org

219

7.8.2.
Auto and Truck Sales

,
.
, 25% +
. ,
, +
,
. +

: 16:30 , , +

( ).
: , Commerce
Department.

7.8.3.
Car Sales
.
+
, 25%
.
: 13+ ( +
).
: , Commerce
Department.

7.8.4.

Redbook
+
. +
17:00 . (
www.fxclub.org

220

) +
,
+
. . , +

( ). +
. ,
.
: 17:00 , .

7.9.
7.9.1.
Personal Income
Personal Income +
, , , +
, . .
+
. +
(. 7.9.1). Per+
sonal Spending (. 7.9.2).
: 16:30 , 20+ (+
2 ).

. 7.9.1. PI

www.fxclub.org

221

. 7.9.2.

: Bureau of Economic Analysis


(http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm).

7.9.2. ()
Personal Spending (Consumption)
(. 7.9.3).
: +
,
.
Retail Sales (+
). , , +
,
. , +
+
.
www.fxclub.org

222

. 7.9.3.
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus4chart.pdf

+
.
: 16:30 , 4+ +
Personal Income.
: Bureau of Economic Analysis
(http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/rels.htm).

7.9.3.
Consumer Credit

( ,
). +
. ,
. +
www.fxclub.org

223

,
, : , +
, ,
.
.
:
, ( ) . ,

,
.
, +
, . ,

. +

.
: 23:00 , 5+ (
2 ).
: http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/releases/G19/Current/.

7.10.
7.10.1.
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
+
, +
.
,
.
University of Michigan Sentiment Index +
500 .
5 , +
(2 ) (3 +
) .
www.fxclub.org

224

,
, , ,
, 100.

, +
. ,
60% .

, , +
. CSI , ,
. CSI +
, . , +
, ,
.
: 18:00 , (+
) ( ); 18:00 , +

. 7.10.1. EUR/USD, . CSI

www.fxclub.org

225

( ) (+
).
: (The University of Michigan).
. 12.09.2003 . +
:
0,6% 1,5%,
+
88,2 90,2
. , +
(. 7.10.1). +
+
.

7.10.2.
Consumer Confidence Index
(Conference
Board) 5000 +
+
( , ,
). +
(100 ) 1985 .
+
, +
+
5 .
+
. +
60% , 40% +
.
,
.
+
.
: 18:00 , (
).
: (Conference
Board).
www.fxclub.org

226

7.10.3. INSEE
, +
+
.
.

7.11.
7.11.1.
Leading Economic Indicators
Leading Economic Indicators (. 7.11.1) +
( +
).

. 7.11.1. LEI
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus4chart.pdf

www.fxclub.org

227

+
( , , +
, ,
, ).
, +
, +
(. 7.11.2).

. 7.11.2. LEI

,
, +, +
, +
, (), +
, .
(Leading Economic Indicator, LEI)
11 .
+
.
+
.

( 1982 .).
( , +
).
www.fxclub.org

228


( 1982 .).
.
+
( , 1982 .).

.
S & P 500 ().
2 (1982 .).
(University of Michigans
Consumer Expectations Index).
,
.

, ; +
, , .
, +
: , +
, , , , , ,
.
0,2%
expansion, recovery 0,1%; +
0,3%. +
LEI:
0,8%, 1,2%. +
. +
, LEI +
. , 3
LEI +
. , 0,7%, 1%
0,8% .
. , +
,
. +
, LEI +
.
www.fxclub.org

229

.
: 18:00 , (
2 ).
: TCBs Business Cycle Indicators
(http://www.tcb+indicators.org).

7.12.
+
,
().
+
.
,
. +
, ,
. +

, .
, , PMI
TANKAN +
+
.
,
: , +
+
.
+
( +
) . +
,
, +
. +
+ +
.
+
www.fxclub.org

230

. +
.
, +
, .

7.12.1. ISM (NAPM), PMI


()
Institute for Supply Management
Institute for Supply Management (ISM) 2002 .
NAPM National Association of Purchasing Mana+
gers. ISM 1915 . 45 000 +
. Diffusion Index PMI
ISM ( ). +
, : , , ,
+ , , +
. 4000

( ,
60 000 ) (. 7.12.1).
NAPM ( 7.12.2).
.
:
30%,
25%,
20%,
15%,
+ 10%.
4550% +
, 50% , +
. PMI 43,8% +
GDP, 44%
. ISM +
. +
.
www.fxclub.org

231

. 7.12.1. PMI
: http://www.ny.frb.org/research/directors_charts/iBus4chart.pdf

. 7.12.2. NAPM

: 18:00 , (+
).
: ISM (http://www.ism.ws/).
www.fxclub.org

232

7.12.2.
ISM Services Index
ISM Services Index +
, +
. 50 +
.
. +
(. 7.12.3).
: 18:00 , +
+
(NAPM Index).
: ISM (http://www.ism.ws/).

. 7.12.3. ISM Services Index

7.12.3.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
+
. ,
50, ,
. : +
. , +
+
, .
www.fxclub.org

233

: 18:00 , ,
, .
: +
.

7.12.4.


Atlanta Fed Index
+
. 0
.

. ,

(ISM index).
: 17:00 , 10+ .
: .

7.12.5.

Philadelphia Fed Index


(+
, + ).
.
0 +
. , +
,
.
.
: 18:00 , .
: .
www.fxclub.org

234

7.12.6. Empire State Manufacturing Survey


+
Empire State Manufacturing Survey 2001 .
+
. ,
, , +
,

.
: +
(http://www.ny.frb.org/research/regional_economy/empiresurvey_
overview.html)

7.12.7. APICS APICS Business


Outlook Index
,
+
, 50, ,
. : .
+
,
.
: ( ,
( ) 8:30 E. T.)
.
: http://www.apics.org/index/.

7.12.8.

PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)

, +
, ., . . +
. 50% +
www.fxclub.org

235

, 50% +
. .
: .
CBI industrial trends
.
( ) +
.
+
. .
: 17:15 , 15+ (
).
: Confederation of British Industry
.
CBI distributive trades
.
( ) +
.
. +
.
: 17:15 , 15+ (
).
: Confederation of British Industry
.
IFO ()

. +
. 80 120,
100 1991 . +
.
: .
ZEW ()
+
(ZEW economic expectations index).
. +
ZEW 300 .
www.fxclub.org

236

Tankan report
, +
. +
8000 ,
:
;
;
, ;
;
;
;
.
Tankan +
, +
.
Tankan .
: , ,
. +
, , .
: Bank of Japan (http://www.boj.or.jp).

7.13.

.

23 27 ()
:
(http://review.fxclub.org/forex/review).
, 23 2004
23:50 : , : (. .; .
Y1,12 ).
23:50 : , : (. .; . 3,9% )
www.fxclub.org

237

14:00 :
.
14:15 : +
, .
16:00 : +
, .
16:30 : +
BTP CCT, 26 .
/ : +
+
.
/ : +
+
.
/ : +
.
/ :
( 23 24 ).
/ : .
, 24 2004
01:30 : 30+ +
.
04:00 : 30+
.
05:00 : , : (.
4,1% ).
05:30 : , : (.
3,0% ).
07:50 : , : (. 0,6%; .
0,2%).
08:30 : , : (.
104; . 99).
08:30 : , .
09:00 : , IFO: (.
97,6; . 97,5).
10:00 : BOTs CTZs.
www.fxclub.org

238

12:45 : ICS+UBS , +
21 : (. +1,4%).
13:55 : Redbook , +
21 : (. +0,8%).
14:00 : ,
.
14:00 : .
14:00 : +
.
14:30 : +
.
15:00 : , Con+
ference Board: (. 92,0; . 96,8).
15:00 :
, .
15:00 : JP
Morgan Chase, +.
23:30 : ABC/
Money: (. 13).
23:50 : , : (.
0,8% ).
/ : 10+ +
EUR 7
4,25%.
/ : +
.
/ :
3GSM, .
/ :
, .
, 25 2004
07:45 : ( ), +
: (. 0,1%; . 0,1%).
08:00 : .
08:30 : , : (. 93,9;
. 93,4).
www.fxclub.org

239

08:30 : , , .
09:00 : .
09:10 :
.
09:30 : 4 ., .
10:15 : +
.
12:00 : +
: (. +6,4%).
14:00 :
, +.
14:00 : .
15:00 : , +
: (. +0,13).
15:00 : +
, .
15:00 : ,
.
15:00 :
, .
17:00 : + .
23:50 :
.
23:50 : , : (. 0,1% ).
/ : 3+ OECD.
/ : +
.
/ : + +
.
/ : +
+ .
/ : +
.
/ :
.
/ :
,
www.fxclub.org

240

/
/

00:00
01:30
04:00
06:30
07:30
07:45
09:00
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
13:30
15:00
15:00
15:00

. ,
, +
(2527 ).
: +
+ +
(2527 ).
:
Alliance UniChem.
: 10+ +
EUR 7 4,25%.
, 26 2004
:
, .
: 2+ +
.
: 2+ +
.
: + .
: + +
.
: , : (. 103;
. 102).
: , M3: (. 6,6% ; .
7,1% ; . 7,1% ; . 7,6% ).
: 4., : (. +C$7,3 ).
: , +
21 : (. 24K).
: , .
: , : (. 0,3%).
: , , +
: (. +0,6%).
: , : (. 0,1%).
: , .
: , Con+
ference Board.
: DJ+BTM: (. +0,3%).
www.fxclub.org

241

18:00 :
, +.
21:30 : .
22:00 :
.
22:30 : +
, .
23:30 : , : (.
0,2% ; . 0,3% ).
23:30 : ,
: (. 0,1% ; . . ).
23:30 : ,
: (. +0,4% ; . +1,1% ).
23:30 : , : (. 4,9%; .
4,9% ).
23:50 : , +
: (. +2,6% ).
/ : (26 +
1 ).
/ :

.
/ : (25
27 ).
/ : .
, 27 2004
04:30 : , METI: (.
3,4% ).
05:00 : , : (. +8,8% ).

www.fxclub.org

036

UD

040

932

008

LL

012

DZD

032

RS

931

004

906

056

100

GL

987

RR

826

348

UF

704

VND

280

300

GRD

268

208

www.fxclub.org

243

978

UR

818

376

ILS

356

INR

360

IDR

400

JD

368

IQD

364

IRR

372

352

IS

724

380

IL

398

124

404

196

417

GS

156

NY

170

192

414

WD

418

428

LVL

422

434

LYD

440

LL

442

LUF

504

960

DR

484

www.fxclub.org

244

498

DL

496

524

NR

566

NGN

528

NLG

554

NZD

578

784

586

604

616

LZ

620

810

RUR

642

RL

682

SR

702

SGD

760

SY

703

705

SI

736

SDD

840

USD

914

901

WD

764

788

ND

795

792

RL

928

UZS

980

858

UY

www.fxclub.org

245

608

246

FI

250

FRF

203

152

756

752

144

LR

233

230

710

ZR

890

YUN

410

RW

392

JY

www.fxclub.org

246


()
Change
(basis points)
Date

Increase

Decrease

Level (percent)

...

25

1.00

...

50

1.25

December 11
November 6
October 2
September 17
August 21
June 27
May 15
April 18
March 20
January 31
January 3

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

25
50
50
50
25
25
50
50
50
50
50

1.75
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
3.75
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00

2000
May 16
March 21
February 2

50
25
25

...
...
...

6.50
6.00
5.75

1999
November 16
August 24
June 30

25
25
25

...
...
...

5.50
5.25
5.00

1998
November 17
October 15
September 29

...
...
...

25
25
25

4.75
5.00
5.25

1997
March 25

25

...

5.50

2003
June 25
2002
November 6
2001

www.fxclub.org

247

...

25

5.25

...
...
50

25
25
...

5.50
5.75
6.00

75
50
50
25
25
25

...
...
...
...
...
...

5.50
4.75
4.25
3.75
3.50
3.25

...
...
...

25
50
25

3.00
3.25
3.75

...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...

50
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
50
25

4.00
4.50
4.75
5.00
5.25
5.50
5.75
6.00
6.25
6.75

...
...
...
...
...

25
25
25
25
25

7.00
7.25
7.50
7.75
8.00

1996
January 31
1995
December 19
July 6
February 1
1994
November 15
August 16
May 17
April 18
March 22
February 4
1992
September 4
July 2
April 9
1991
December 20
December 6
November 6
October 31
September 13
August 6
April 30
March 8
February 1
January 9
1990
December 18
December 7
November 13
October 29
July 13

A basis point is 1/100 percentage point.

: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
www.fxclub.org

248


: 146 + 4 2003 .

1
Albania
Angola
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Bahrain
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bolivia
Botswana
Brazil
Brunei Darussalam
Bulgaria
Burkina Faso
Burundi
Cameroon
Canada
Central African Republic
Chad
Chile
China
Colombia
Congo
Costa Rica
Cote d'Ivoire
Croatia
Cuba
Cyprus


2
8 September 2000
23 November 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
5 February 2003
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
22 February 1996
12 September 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 December 1996
3 June 1995
23 July 1995
13 December 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
19 October 1996
1 January 1995
11 December 2001
30 April 1995
27 March 1997
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
30 November 2000
20 April 1995
30 July 1995

www.fxclub.org

249

1
Czech Republic
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Denmark
Djibouti
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Egypt
El Salvador
Estonia
European Communities
Fiji
Finland
France
Gabon
The Gambia
Georgia
Germany
Ghana
Greece
Grenada
Guatemala
Guinea Bissau
Guinea
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hong Kong, China
Hungary
Iceland
India
Indonesia
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Jamaica
Japan
Jordan

2
1 January 1995
1 January 1997
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
9 March 1995
21 January 1996
30 June 1995
7 May 1995
13 November 1999
1 January 1995
14 January 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
23 October 1996
14 June 2000
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
22 February 1996
21 July 1995
31 May 1995
25 October 1995
1 January 1995
30 January 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
21 April 1995
1 January 1995
9 March 1995
1 January 1995
11 April 2000

www.fxclub.org

250

1
Kenya
Korea, Republic of
Kuwait
The Kyrgyz Republic
Latvia
Lesotho
Liechtenstein
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Macau, China
Macedonia
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Maldives
Mali
Malta
Mauritania
Mauritius
Mexico
Moldova
Mongolia
Morocco
Mozambique
Myanmar
Namibia
Netherlands For the Kingdom in Europe
and for the Netherlands Antilles
New Zealand
Nicaragua
Niger
Nigeria
Norway
Oman, Sultanate of
Pakistan
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru

2
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
20 December 1998
10 February 1999
31 May 1995
1 September 1995
31 May 2001
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
4 April 2003
17 November 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
27 July 2001
29 January 1997
1 January 1995
26 August 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
3 September 1995
13 December 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
9 November 2000
1 January 1995
6 September 1997
9 June 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995

www.fxclub.org

251

1
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
Romania
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
Senegal
Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan,
Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slovak Republic
Slovenia
Solomon Islands
South Africa
Spain
Sri Lanka
Suriname
Swaziland
Sweden
Switzerland
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Trinidad and Tobago
Tunisia
Turkey
Uganda
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Venezuela
Zambia
Zimbabwe

2
1 January 1995
1 July 1995
1 January 1995
13 January 1996
1 January 1995
22 May 1996
21 February 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 2002
23 July 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
30 July 1995
26 July 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 July 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
31 May 1995
1 March 1995
29 March 1995
26 March 1995
1 January 1995
10 April 1996
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
1 January 1995
5 March 1995

www.fxclub.org

252

W:
Algeria
Andorra
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Belarus
Bhutan
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Cambodia
Cape Verde
Ethiopia
Holy See (Vatican)
Kazakhstan
Lao Peoples Democratic Republic
Lebanon
Nepal
Russian Federation
Samoa
Sao Tome and Principe
Saudi Arabia
Seychelles
Sudan
Chinese Taipei
Tonga
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Vanuatu
Vietnam
Yemen
Yugoslavia, Fed. Rep. of
. Holy See,

.
: http://www.wto.ru/chto.asp?f=memb&t=7
www.fxclub.org

253

Afghanistan, Islamic

29

Cameroon

Albania

30

Canada

Algeria

31

Cape Verde

Angola

32

Central African Republic

Antigua and Barbuda

33

Chad

Argentina

34

Chile

Armenia

35

China

Australia

36

Colombia

Austria

37

Comoros

10

Azerbaijan

38

Congo

11

Bahrain

39

Costa Rica

12

Bahamas, The Bahrain

40

C?te d'Ivoire

13

Bangladesh

41

Croatia

14

Barbados

42

Cyprus

15

Belarus

43

Czech Republic

16

Belgium

44

Denmark

17

Belize

45

Djibouti

18

Benin

46

Dominica

19

Bhutan

47

Dominican Republic

20

Bolivia

48

Ecuador

21

Bosnia and Herzegovina

49

Egypt

22

Botswana

50

El Salvador

23

Brazil

51

Equatorial Guinea

24

Brunei Darussalam

52

Eritrea

25

Bulgaria

53

Estonia

26

Burkina Faso

54

Ethiopia

27

Burundi

55

Fiji

28

Cambodia

56

Finland

www.fxclub.org

254

57

France

89

Lao People's Democratic Republic

58

Gabon

90

Latvia

59

Gambia

91

Lebanon

60

Georgia

92

Lesotho

61

Germany

93

Liberia4

62

Ghana

94

Libyan Arab Jamhiriya

63

Greece

95

Lithuania

64

Grenada

96

Luxembourg

65

Guatemala

97

Macedonia

66

Guinea

98

Madagascar

67

Guinea-Bissau

99

Malawi

68

Guyana

100

Malaysia

69

Haiti

101

Maldives

70

Honduras

102

Mali

71

Hungary

103

Malta

72

Iceland

104

Marshall Islands

73

India

105

Mauritania

74

Indonesia

106

Mauritius

75

Iran, Islamic

107

Mexico

76

Iraq

108

Micronesia, Federated

77

Ireland

109

Moldova

78

Israel

110

Mongolia

79

Italy

111

Morocco

80

Jamaica

112

Mozambique

81

Japan

113

Myanmar

82

Jordan

114

Namibia

83

Kazakhstan

115

Nepal

84

Kenya

116

Netherlands

85

Kiribati

117

New Zealand

86

Korea

118

Nicaragua

87

Kuwait

119

Niger

88

Kyrgyz Republic

120

Nigeria

www.fxclub.org

255

121

Norway

153

South Africa

122

Oman

154

Spain

123

Pakistan

155

Sri Lanka

124

Palau

156

Sudan

125

Panama

157

Suriname

126

Papua New Guinea

158

Swaziland

127

Paraguay

159

Sweden

128

Peru

160

Switzerland

129

Philippines

161

Syrian Arab Republic

130

Poland

162

Tajikistan

131

Portugal

163

Tanzania

132

Qata

164

Thailand

133

Romania

165

Timor-Leste

134

Russian Federation

166

Togo

135

Rwanda

167

Tonga

136

St. Kitts and Nevis

168

Trinidad and Tobago

137

St. Lucia

169

Tunisia

138

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

170

Turkey

139

Samoa

171

Turkmenistan

140

San Marino

172

Uganda

141

Sao Tome and Principe

173

Ukraine

142

Saudi Arabia

174

United Arab Emirates

143

Senegal

175

United Kingdom

144

Serbia and

176

United States

145

Montenegro

177

Uruguay

146

Seychelles

178

Uzbekistan

147

Sierra Leone

179

Vanuatu

148

Singapore

180

Venezuela

149

Slovak Republic

181

Vietnam

150

Slovenia

182

Yemen, Republic of

151

Solomon Islands

183

Zambia

152

Somalia

184

Zimbabwe

www.fxclub.org

256



1
U. S. Department of the Treasury

2
http://www.ustreas.gov

U. S. Bureau of Economic Analvsis

http://www.bea.doc.gov

U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://stats.bls.gov

U. S. Department of Labor
U. S. Department of Commerce

http://www.dol.gov
http://www.doc.gov

U. S. Bureau of Census

http://www.scensus.gov

U. S. Department of Agriculture

http://www.usda.gov

U. S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics

http://bts.gov

STAT-USA Internet

http://www.stat-usa.gov

National Bureau of Economic Research

http://www.nber.org/

FedStats

http:///www.fedstats.gov

Federal Reserve Bank

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us

Investment Company Institute


Joint Economic Committee

http://www.ici.org
http://www.housc.gov

Statistics Canada

http://www.statcan.ca

U. K. Office of National Statistics

|http://www.ons.gov.uk

Japan External Trade Organization

http://www.jetro.go.jp

Japan Economic Planning Agency

http://epa.go.jp

German Federal Statistical Office

http://www.statistik~bund.dc/e home.htm

German government
German Finance Ministry

http://www.bundesregierung.de
http://www.bundesfinanzmmisterium.de

German Federal Economics Office

http://www.bawi.de

German Labor Office

http://www.arbeitsamt.de

Eurostat

http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/eurostat/
eurostat.html

Federal Reserve U. S.

http://www.federalreserve.gov


Business Ccle Indicators
http://www.globalexposure.com/
Dismal Scientist UK

http://www.dismal.com/

Economic Information Systems

http://www.econ-line.com

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast


Mexico
The Dismal Scientist

http://www.cob.asu.edu/seid/eoc/eocmex.
html
http://www.Dismal.com/

U. S. European. Japan macrocconomic data

http://www. economagic.com

www.fxclub.org

257

Commodity Futures Trading Commission


(CFTC)

http://www.cftc.gov

Congress.Org

http://www.congress.org/

Futures Industry Association/


Futures Industry Institute

http://www.fiafii.org/

Emerging Markets Traders Association

http://www.emta.org

White House

http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/Welcome.
html

IFC Emerging Markets Data Base

http://wwwifc.org/EMDB/EMDBHOME.HTM

International Swaps and Derivatives


Association

http://www.isda.org/

U. S. Securities and Exchange


Commission

http://www.sec.gov

Managed Funds Association

http://www.mfairifo.org/

National Futures Association (NFA)

http://nfa.fiitures.org

Futures Industry Association (FIA)

http://fiafii.org

Securities Investor Protection Corporation

http://sipc.org


Bank for International Settlements

http://www.bis.org

Bank of England

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk

Bank of Japan

http://www.boj.or.jp

Banque de France

http://www.banque-france.fr

Board of Governors of the Federal


Reserve System

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us

Deutsche Bundesbank

http://www.bundesbank.de

European Central Bank

http://www.ecb.int/

Swiss National Bank

http://www.snb.ch

De Nederlandsche Bank

http://www.dnb.nl

Banco Central do Brasil

http://www.bcb.gov.br

Bank of Canada

http://www.bankofcanada.ca

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

http://www.frbatlanta.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

http://www.bos.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

http://www.frbchi.org

www.fxclub.org

258

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

http://www.clev.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

http://www.dallasfed.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

http://www.kc.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

http://minneapolisfed.org

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

http://www.ny.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

http://www.phil.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

http://www. Rich.frb.org

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

http://www.frbsf.org

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

http://www.stls.frb.org/index.html

South African Reserve Bank

http://www.resbank..za/

The Central Bank


of the Russian Federation

http://www.cbr.ru

Bank of New York's

http://www.bankofny.com

Credit Lyonnais S.A.

http://www.creditlyonnais.fr7E_default.htm

NationsBank Corp.

http://www.nationsbank.com

J. P. Morgan & Co.

http://www jpmorgan.com/

TNG Euro Desk

http://euro.ing.nl/eng/inain.html

Norges Bank

http://www.norges-bank.no/english/

CS First Boston

http://www.csfb.com

Bank of Montreal

http://www.bmo.com/

1BJ International

http://www.ibjs.co.jp

Royal Bank of Scotland

http://www.rbs.co.uk

Chicago Board of Trade

http://www.cbot.com

Chicago Board Options Exchange

http://www.cboe.com

Chicago Mercantile Exchange

http://www.cme.com

Coffee. Sugar and Cocoa Exchange

http://www.csce.com

Hong Kong Futures Exchange

http://www. hkfe.com/

MidAmerica Commodity Exchange

http://www.midam.com/

Minneapolis Grain Exchange

http://www.mgex.com

Kansas City Board of Trade

http://www.kcbt.com/

New York Cotton Exchange / NYBOT

http://www.nyce.com

www.fxclub.org

259

New York Mercantile Exchange / COMEX

http://www.nymex.com

Belgium Futures & Options Exchange

http://www.belfox.be

Italian Derivatives Market

http://www.borsaitalia.it

International Petroleum Exchange

http://www.ipe.uk.com

London International Financial Futures


Exchange / London Commodities
Exchange

http://www.liffe.com

London Metals Exchange

http://www.Ime..uk

Marche A Terme International de France

http://www.Matif.fr

Mercado Espanol de Opciones Futurs


Financieros Retra Fija

http://www.meff.es

South African Futures Exchange

http://www.safex.co.za/


Futures Cm-line

http://www.futuresmag.com

Futures. Net

http://futures.net/

NumaWeb

http://www.numa.com/

Options Analysis

http://optionsanalysis.com/

Options Industry Council

http://wvvw.optionscentral.com/

Commodity Traders Consumer Report

http://ctcr.investors.net

Commodity Resource Corp.

http://www.commodity.com/index.html

Gold Eagle's

http://www.gold-eagic.com

Agriculture Network Information Center

http://www.agnic.org

Soybeans

http://www.nsr1.uiuc.edu

Energy, petrochemical and metals


markets

http://www.platts.com

Energy

http://www.wtrg.com

Energy

http://www.eia.doe.gov

Copper

http://www.copper.org

Phelps Dodge Corporation (#1 copper)

http://www.phelpsdodge.com

Aluminium

http://www. world-aluminium.org

Australian Stock Exchange

http://www.asx.com.au

Boston Stock Exchange

http://www.bostonstock.com/

www.fxclub.org

260

Chicago Stock Exchange

http://www.chicagostockex. com/

NasdaqAmcx

http://www.nasdaq-amex.com/

National Stock Exchange of India

http://www.nseindia.com/

Helsinki Stock Exchange

http://www.hse.fi/english index.hlml

Italian Stock Exchange

http://www.borsaitalia.it/

Korea Slock Exchange

http://www.kse.or.kr/

Montreal Stock Exchange

http://www.me.org/

New York Stock Exchange

http://www.nyse.com/

New Zealand Stock Excliange

http://www.nzse.co.nz

Philadelphia Stock Exchange

http://www.phix.com

Slock Exchange of Singapore

http://www.ses.com.sg/

Stock Exchange of Thailand

http://www.set.or.th/

Santiago Stock Exchange

http://www.bolsantiago.cl/ingles/index.htm

SBF-Paris Bourse
(Paris Stock Exchange)

http://www.bourse-de-paris.fr/

Vancouver Stock Exchange

http://www.vse.ca/

Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange

http://www.tase.co.il/

Tokyo Stock Exchange

http://www.tse.or.jp/eindex. html

Toronto Stock Exchange

http://www.tse.coin/

Swiss Exchange

http://www.swx.ch

London Slock Exchange

http://www.londonstockex.co.uk

Pacific Exchange

http://www.pacificex.com

International Stock Exchange

http://www.efmoody.com

Gruppe Deutsche Borse

http://www.exchange.de

Eurex

http://www.eurexchange.com

Berlin Stock Exchange

http://money.berlinerbocrse.de


Mcrill Lynch

http://www.ml.com

Salomon Smith Barney

http://www. smithbarney.com

Goldman Sachs Group. Inc.

http://www.gs.com

Morgan Grcnfell

http://www.morgan-grenfell.com

Lehman Brothers

http://www.lehman.com

Bear Stearns & Co. Inc.

http://www.beaistearns.com

www.fxclub.org

261

Morgan Stenley

http://www.ms.Com

Aubrey G. Lanston & Co. Inc.

http://www.lanston.com


Bond Market Association

http://www.bondmarkets.com

Bonds Online

http://www.bonds-online.com
, ,

Bloomberg Online

http://www.bloomberg.com

CBS MarketWatch

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/
newsroom.htx

Dun & Bradstreel Corp.

http://www.dnb.com

Fitch IBCA Inc.

http://www.fitchibca.com/home/frame.html

Financial Times

http://www.ft.com

MSNBC Business

http://www.msnbc.com

Standard & Poor's Equity Investor


Services

http://www.stockinfo.standardpoor.com

Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/business/front.htm

Skate Russia

http://www.skate.ru/

Market News

http://www.economeister.com/indcx.htm

Economic Times India

http://www.economictimes.com/

Euromoney Online

http://www.euromoney.com/

Far Eastern Economic Review

http://www.feer.com

INO Global Markets

http://www.ino.com

Dr Yardeni

http://www.yardeni.com

CNN

http://www.cnnfn.com

Dow Jones

http://www.dj.com

Reuters

http://www.reuters.com

Yahoo! Finance

http://quote.yahoo.com/

Forbes

http://www.forbes.com/

PC Trader

http://www.fixedincome.com

Pensions & Investments

http://www.pionhne.com

SmartMoney

http://www.smartmoney.com

South China Morning Post Markets Post

http://www.scmp.corn/news/markets/topm
ark.idc

www.fxclub.org

262

StreetNel

http://www.streetnet.com

InterQuote

http://www.interquote.com

Data Transmission Network (DTN)

http://www.dtn.com

Wall Street Journal

http://www.wsj.com

Barrorfs

http://www.barrons.com

The New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com

The Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com

Fcedstuffs

http://www.feedstuffs.com

ABCNews

http://abcnews.go.com

BBC

http://bbc.co.uk

FutureSource

http://www.futuresource . com

AFX News

http://www.afe-news.com

FOREX
First Union Foreign Exchange

http://www.firstunion.com/fx

FX Week

http://www.fxweek.com

CMC

http://www.forex-cmc.co.uk

OANDA

http://www.oanda.com/

Thomas Cook Group Ltd

http://www.fx4business. com

Duff & Phelps Credit Raring Co.

http://www.dcrco.com

Dun & Bradstreet Corp.

http://www.dnb.com

Fitch IBCA

http://www.fitchibca.com

Fortune

http://www.fortune.com

Barren's

http://www.barrons.com

Gomez Advisors

http://www.gomez.com

ThcStrcet.com

http://www.thestreet.com

www.fxclub.org

, , +
, +
. +

+
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1. + / .
. . . .: , 1994.
2. + /
. . . . .: +, 1998.
3. . . . .
.: ; , 2002. 325 .
4. . . . .: , 1996.
5. . . : . .: , 2002. 472 .
6. . ., . . : . .: +
, 2003. 544 .
7. . . +. : +, 2000. 640 .
8. . . . .: , 2003. 368 .
9. . ., . . . . . : / .
. . , . . . .: ; , 2003. 624 .
10. . . .: +, 1996. 336 .
11. . . . : : ,
1997. 236 .
12. . ., . . . .: , 1999.
13. . . +
. .: , 1998.
14. . ., . ., . ., . . +
: . .: + , 1997.
15. . ., . . . .: , 1997.
16. . . . .: , 1992.
17. ., . . . . .: ,
1996.

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19. . ., . ., . . . ., +,
1998.
20. . . . .: , 1996.
21. ., . ., . . . .: +, 1998.
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1. . . ?! .: ; , 2005.
2. / . . . . .: +
; , 2005.
3. ? / . . . . .: ;
, 2005.
4. : / . . . . .:
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5. / .
. . . .: ; , 2005.



2
1. . . : 5 ! .:
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3. . ., . . : , .
.: ; , 2004.

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