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Wireless Intelligence: Consulting Insight Education

andrewseybold.com

2012, All Rights Reserved

May 7, 2012

Welcome and Introduction


Andrew M. Seybold

Thanks to Our Sponsors!


! Morning break sponsored by ! Lunch and Speaker sponsored by ! Afternoon break sponsored by ! Media sponsor ! Syllabus sponsored by

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Welcome and Housekeeping


! Morning session 9:00 am to 12:00 pm ! Lunchtime speaker 12:15 pm to12:45 pm
Lunch provided!

! Afternoon session 1:15 pm, end by 5:00 pm ! Two 15-minute mid-session breaks ! Pauses for Q &A between sections
Please step up to the microphone to ask a question

! For a copy of this material in PDF format, ask registration outside the door ! Please set your phones and wireless devices to vibrate

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About Us

Sign up for Free on our website for one or more of these publications

Instructors
Andrew Seybold, CEO and Principal Consultant, Andrew Seybold, Inc.
Andy Seybold is one of the worlds leading authorities on technology and trends shaping the world of wireless mobility. He is a respected analyst, consultant, commentator, author, and active participant in wireless industry trade organizations. His views have influenced strategies and shaped initiatives for many of the worlds most respected names in the wireless industry from Verizon to Nokia. Mr. Seybold is widely known throughout the wireless communications industry for his keen perspective as well as his track renerd for accurately predicting trends in mobile wireless technology and convergence. He is a frequent speaker at leading industry events such as CES and CTIA shows, and at corporate events for companies including Verizon, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and others.

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About Us
Barney Dewey, Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.
Barney Dewey joined Andrew Seybold, Inc. in 1997, bringing more than thirty years of experience in business strategy, planning and executive management, consulting, and training for wireless services and products (technology). Previously he held executive-level posts at Notable Technologies, Inc. where he established and implemented the companys wireless-based business direction, and at Calera Recognition Systems where he brought new OCR technologies to market. Prior to Calera, he held positions at Apple Computer where he led business plan development, product strategy and planning for handheld device connectivity, and wireless and multimedia services. Mr. Dewey began his career at Motorola, where he designed and implemented wireless communications systems.

Robert OHara, Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.


Robert OHara is a wireless industry veteran, with experience at companies including Motorola and Microsoft. He has been involved in the mobile wireless data industry since it began, working with companies such as AT&T Wireless and Qualcomm. At Motorola, Mr. OHara worked on advanced technology projects on email, messaging, and the Android platform. At Microsoft, he participated in the design of the Pocket PC, Smartphone, and related applications since the inception of Windows Mobile. Also at Microsoft in Cambridge, England, he was the Product Unit Manager of the Microsoft Wireless Connectivity Group Europe. There he had overall responsibility for the design and development of Microsoft's microbrowser technology for cellular telephones, Microsoft Mobile Explorer.

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About Us

Robert C. Chapin, Partner, More than 35 years experience


With Bobs past experiences in wireless publishing, marketing, data collection, and as an analyst, he brings unparalleled knowledge in a variety of areas including end-user perceptions, marketing tactics, and both primary and secondary research.

Robert J. Hirsh, Partner, More than 40 years experience


From his marketing experience with IBM to his work as a director at a large wireless provider, Bobs expertise includes product introduction, defining support requirements, and establishing partnerships and alliances.

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Morning Session: Wireless Technology Introduction & Update


! Welcome and Introduction ! Wireless Broadband
Data technologies and speeds Voice today on 2G, 3G, tomorrow 4G Broadband congestionthe biggest wireless issue Broadband congestion solutions
More spectrum, more and smaller cell sites, in-building systems

! Break ! Role of Unlicensed Spectrum


White space Wi-Fi Bluetooth Near Field Communications (NFC)

! Interactive Q & A
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Afternoon Session
! Devices and Operating Systems
Smartphones, tablets/readers Netbooks/laptops/ultrabooks Operating systems/ecosystems

! Follow the Money: Panel Discussion ! Break

! Whats Driving the Need for More Bandwidth


More capabilities in tablets New devices The cloud Streaming video

! Commentary and Predictions ! Counterpoint ! Interactive Q & A


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Wireless Broadband
Andrew M. Seybold

Spectrum Is a Finite Resource

There is only so much spectrum available. No more can be made, we can only use it more efficiently
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U.S. Spectrum Allocations

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Spectrum Shortage
! Reports show broadband spectrum shortage looming
Verizon may reach capacity on LTE network 2013/2014 FCC reports wireless broadband growth soaring year over year Streaming video primary cited cause

! Some disagree
Recent Citi Investments report claims shortage made up by network operators to justify more spectrum Citi says network operators should utilize all of their spectrum for LTE

! CTIA study shows U.S. spectrum allocations higher than most countries but
By 2013, U.S. will lag behind

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Broadband: Governments View


! FCC and Congress believe
Broadband is the future All new spectrum allocations should be broadband
Those using narrowband spectrum may have to vacate it

Existing services must be relocated to where? Spectrum between 500 MHz and about 3.5 GHz good for broadband
Below 500 MHz, antennas, filters, components too large Above 3.5 GHz, coverage per cell site limited

Spectrum controlled by NTIA and FCC


Finally working together on spectrum plans Congress asking for spectrum inventory

! Meanwhile, demand for broadband continues to grow

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FCC, NTIA: Different Spectrum


! Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
Responsible for all commercial spectrum
Licensed Unlicensed Committed to finding more spectrum for broadband services

! National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA)


Responsible for all spectrum assigned to federal government Advisor to Executive Branch

! Working together to clear additional spectrum ! Some communications systems operate on both NTIA, FCC spectrum on shared basis ! NTIA manages more spectrum than FCC! ! Spectrum management model must change
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Evolution of Wireless Broadband


! Until LTE, all cellular technologies were designed for voice; data tacked on later
LTE first cellular technology designed for high-speed data; voice will be added (Voice over IP, VoLTE)

! Until LTE, wired data speeds outpaced wireless ! LTE faster than DSL, most cable modems
Not as fast as fiber optic broadband

! LTE is 4G wireless broadband world standard


Being deployed in at least 41 portions of spectrum World phones for LTE non-existent into the future

! LTE advanced next ! LTE will replace 2G, 3G systems over time ! Maximum data speeds NOT real-world speeds

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Wireless Data Roadmap


1G 1990 2G 2000 3G 2007 4G 2010+

TDMA
voice
AT&T, others

HSPA+
data
AT&T, T-Mobile

AMPS
voice
AT&T, Verizon

GSM
voice, text, data
AT&T, T-Mobile

GSM
voice, text, data
AT&T, T-Mobile

LTE
voice, text, data
AT&T, Verizon

CDMA
voice, text, data
Verizon, Sprint

CDMA
voice, text, data
Verizon, Sprint

WiMAX
voice, text, data
Sprint

AMPS terminated 2008 Expect 2G / 3G data systems to terminate 2020 or sooner


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Data Technologies and Speeds


Andrew M. Seybold

Wireless Data Rates Over Time


! 1990s RAM Mobile Data (BlackBerry) Motorola ARDIS CDPD (Cellular Digital Packet Data) ! Analog cellular dial-up (late 1980s-mid 1990s) ! 2G cellular (GSM/CDMA) ! 2.5G cellular (EDGE/CDMA 1X) ! 3G (UMTS/HSPA/CDMA EV-DO) ! 4G (WiMAX/HSPA+) ! 4G (LTE)
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8.0 Kbps 9.2 Kbps 19.2 Kbps 14.2 Kbps 20.0 Kbps 100 Kbps 1 Mbps 3-5 Mbps 10-20 Mbps

LTE speeds dependent on amount of spectrum LTE supports 1.4, 3, 5, 10, up to 20 MHz of spectrum The more spectrum used, the faster the data rate, more capacity U.S. 700 MHz spectrum allocations are 6X6,11X11 MHz

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LTE System Basics


! LTE designed to operate on different amounts of spectrum
1.4, 2.5, 5, 10, 15, and 20 MHz (times 2) The more spectrum available, the better the data rates, the more capacity on a per-cell-sector basis Verizon building out 11X11 MHz (20 MHz total) Public safety now has 10X10 MHz (20 MHz total) AT&T has 5X5, 10X10 or more spectrum in most markets
Will have more with Qualcomms MediaFlo spectrum

! Cell sizes supported


5 Km (3+ miles) Maximum 100 Km (62 miles) Network degradation beyond 30 Km (18.5 miles)
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LTE System Basics (cont.)


! LTE support for network performance
Data rates up and down can be changed Quality of Service (QoS) Priority service levels

! Networks can be set for static configurations or parameters can be changed based on demand ! Frequency reuse for LTE is 1:1
Interference is issue, networks have to be planned and designed carefully

! Networks will evolve using several types of cell sites


Macro sitesmain sites with 3 sectors to cover major areas Micro-sitessmaller, used for fill-in where not practical to build macro sites Pico siteseven smaller, again used for fill-in or to add capacity Femtocell and Distributed Antennas Systems (DAS) enhance in-building coverage

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Broadband Speeds and Capacity


! Fallback
Until LTE network footprints match existing 2G, 3G network footprints, users will fall back to 3G data upon leaving LTE coverage area Do not yet support moving from 3G back to LTE; user must end session and restart when back in LTE range

! Network capacity
The important capacity for users: a single cell sector Each cell divided into three 120-degree sectors Each sector has same data capacity Only one user within a cell sector, has access to total capacity, maximum speed
Depending on how far from cell center

Many users in same cell sector, must share available capacity, data speeds will vary Performance is fine for typical Internet activities, checking mail, etc.,
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All LTE Wireless Bandwidth Is Shared


! Bandwidth is shared
On sector basis Data speeds vary
Close to cell center Mid-range in coverage Edge of cell

! Each Cell Site


Divided into 3 sectors Each sector has same capacity

Single user within a sector


Gets all capacity and speed

Multiple users share total available bandwidth If multiple users are streaming video, each users performance will degrade
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Typical LTE Cell Site at 700 MHz


Data speeds down to device, up from device Speeds, capacity are per sector, 3X for site Capacity in each sector shared by all users in the sector Typical numbers, may vary system-tosystem 3 data speeds to devices 2 data speeds from devices

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Example for 20 MHz of Spectrum

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VoiceToday on 2G, 3G, and 4G


Andrew M. Seybold

From Voice to Data


! Network Utilization
January 2011 minutes / month Text messages 671 Applications 667 Voice calls 531 Volume
Expect voice to drop as it moves to data (VoIP, LTE Voice)

Data

Voice

Time
Source: Wireless Intelligence / Zokem Research
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Questions

How many of you have an LTE-capable phone? How many of you believe your voice calls are handled on the LTE network? Not Today!
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Todays Wireless Voice


! Carried over 2G, 3G networks ! 2G, 3G networks designed for voice; data was added later ! 2G, 3G voice services still circuit-switched voice

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LTE Architecture: A Complex Network

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Networks Want to Move to LTE


! ! ! ! LTE most spectrally efficient wireless technology to date Not enough spectrum to meet broadband demand FCC trying to find more spectrum to auction Network operators have multiple spectrum allocations
850 MHz, 1900 MHz, 2.1 GHz, 700 MHz (LTE only)

! Network operators want to replace 2G, 3G systems with LTE to provide more network capacity ! Will need to add voice to LTE
Standard is Voice over IP or in this case, VoLTE

! Metro PCS will offer VoLTE later this year ! Verizon in trials in several areas ! AT&T advised its customers with 2G-only-capable phones to upgrade to 2G/3G phones ! No sunset for 2G, up to each operator
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LTE Voice (VoLTE)


! Commercial operators moving toward
Voice over IP (VoLTE) for telephone calls VoIP for Push-To-Talk (PTT)

! Then all voice and data will be mixed on LTE network


VoLTE converts analog voice to digital packets, sends them over the network with data packets, then reconverts to analog voice Voice packets must have priority over data packets since they must be delivered quickly and in sequence

! LTE supports Quality of Service, required for true Voice over IP ! VoIP used on networks today via Vonage, Skype, others

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Voice over LTE (VoLTE)


! MetroPCS promising VoLTE services by Q3 2012
Running LTE in 5X5 MHz Supports CDMA 1X, CDMA EV-DO Wants to move more spectrum to LTE

! Verizon Wireless testing VoLTE


Verizon will be retiring CDMA 1X (voice), then CDMA EV-DO Clears spectrum for LTE in 850, 1900 MHz

! Smaller companies claiming VoIP works over LTE today


NOT based on industry standard

! VoLTE requires top priority of packet flow ! Quality of Service and Priority for packets important attributes required for VoLTE ! Operators goal is 100% LTE

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Typical Commercial Voice Services


! Voice for telephone calls
Single user to network Dial or receive call

! Push-to-talk services
Available on some 2G, 3G networks Will come to LTE after voice calls Non-mission-critical Ability to assign multiple talk groups

! Timeframe for VoLTE is sooner rather than later ! Driven by need to migrate as much spectrum as possible to LTE ! No sunset or end of life specified by FCC for 2G, 3G; up to operators ! LTE can be used on any existing cellular spectrum allocations

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Broadband Congestion; The Biggest Wireless Issue


Andrew M. Seybold

How It Works: Capacity


! Suburban cell towers typically 1-3 sectors
GSM sector supports 7 simultaneous calls per channel
Most sectors have multiple channels

CDMA sector supports about 25 simultaneous calls

! Crowded areas require more cell sites


Busy highways, sport stadiums

! Indoor locations use many small cell sites


Microcells / picocells / femtocells

! Same for data


GSM 3G sector supports up to 2.5 Mbps
New HSPA+ supports up to 7 Mbps

LTE sector supports up to 35 Mbps Capacity shared by all users on the site!

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All Wireless Bandwidth Is Shared


! Bandwidth is shared
On a sector basis Data speeds vary
Close to cell center Mid-range in coverage Edge of cell

! Each Cell Site


Divided into 3 sectors Each sector has same capacity

Single user within a sector


Gets all capacity and speed

Multiple users share total available bandwidth If multiple users are streaming video, each users performance will degrade
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What Causes Wireless Congestion


! Each cell sector covers small geographic area ! Each cell sector has finite capacity based on
Total amount of spectrum in the sector Technology being used within the sector Coverage area of the sector

! Other factors can affect network capacity


Backhaul from cell site to network core Each cell site with 3 sectors requires sufficient backhaul capacity to handle total cell capacity
Network operators sometimes skimp on backhaul; typically, all three sectors not heavily used at the same time

Interference within the coverage area of a cell site

! When too many users within a single cell sector want service at the same time, the sector becomes overloaded

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Broadband Congestion (cont.)


! Peak hour broadband congestion
No peak hours for broadband data services

! Connections first-come, first-served ! Typical cell sector provides solid data speeds for most users unless
Some are streaming video up or down to their devices

! Can accommodate many more users per cell sector when surfing the net, checking email, etc.
Video streaming will limit number of users per cell sector
Standard-definition movie will consume 1.5-2 Mbps of data HD can consume up to 5 Mbps or more per user

! Multicast (one to many video service) is NOT available today, may be in the future

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Real-World Capacity Tests


! Tests of ererstone Network: Alameda County, CA
Tests run weeks of April 11, May 1 Final Report submitted September 2011

! Tests based on incidents


Some drive testing, primarily fixed-location testing First set of tests: single cell sector only No other network traffic

! ! ! ! !

Tests conducted near cell center (0.5 miles from center) Mid-coverage (1.5 miles from center) Edge of cell (3.8 milesusable signal) Edge of cell (4.2 milesunusable signal) Same cell sector, in center of sector coverage

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Test Results: Barricaded Hostage (10 MHz)

Note: These numbers are based on minimum number of first responders for the incident. In reality, there will be more units/people on the scene, thus an even higher demand for video to and from the incident.

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Same Incident with 20 MHz of Spectrum

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Test Results: Suspected Bomb

Note: These numbers are based on minimum number of first responders for the incident. In reality, there will be more units/ people on the scene, thus an even higher demand for video to and from the incident.
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Same Incident with 20 MHz of Spectrum

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2 Videos Simultaneously

3 Videos Simultaneously

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4 Videos Simultaneously

5 Videos Simultaneously

Network Congestion Conclusions


! Broadband network congestion is on cell-sector basis, not necessarily across entire network ! Streaming video is capacity killer ! Capacity issues occur when too many users within same cell sector ! In emergencies
If incident is local, capacity issues are local If incident is widespread, capacity issues are widespread

! Recent events
Earthquake on East Coast (5.8)
Cell networks stayed up but were over-crowded by demand for voice, text, AND data services

Hurricane on East Coast


Combination of too much demand and some cell sites damaged, out of service

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Broadband Data Caveats


! Broadband capacity and throughput based on
Technology spectrum efficiency Bandwidth used by network operator Backhaul capacity

! Some operators quote maximum possible data rates based on ideal conditions, single user in sector ! Some operators quote expected data rates under normal customer loading ! Data speeds/capacity will vary across network ! Broadband data speeds and capacity
Depend on users location in relationship to cell site
The further from the cell center, the less speed

Will vary depending on cell sector demand/number of users

! How is congestion being addressed?


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Broadband Congestion Solutions


Andrew M. Seybold

Addressing Broadband Congestion


! Ways to help manage broadband congestion
Add more spectrum (if available) to each site Build more sites closer together Off-load main sites to smaller sites Off-load sites to Wi-Fi for in-building capacity and coverage Use Distributed Antenna Networks (DAS) in buildings Limit amount of data consumed by a customer by
Pricing plans, limit amount of data per customer per month Throttling heavy users, reducing their data speeds Time-of-delivery charges

Smart antennas

! LTE is most efficient of all wireless broadband standards


Push is on to move users to LTE and vacate 2G, 3G networks BUT this will take a long time to complete

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Congestion Options (1)


! Add more spectrum (if available) to each site
Good in theory, difficult in practice Most spectrum already deployed Devices have to work on all bands within operators spectrum holdings
Example: 700, 850, 1900, 2100 MHz (AWS-1) More bands if device is intended to be world phone

FCC promised more spectrum


In different bands and 3-5 years to auction, clear, build

! Build more sites closer together


Expensive Time-consuming
Different areas take longerCalifornia 24-36 months!

Backhaul must be available for each site

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Congestion Options (2)


! Off-load main sites to smaller sites
Fill in between macro sites with smaller microcells, picocells Easier to do, less capacity Interference issues need to be addressed for LTE

! Off-load sites to Wi-Fi for in-building


! Being done on worldwide basis AT&T, Verizon deploying rapidly T-Mobile leader, supports voice and data, devices switch automatically between WAN and Wi-Fi Customer pays for Wi-Fi-to-network backhaul Wi-Fi access points must be integrated into network back-end ALL Wi-Fi access points not necessarily part of a given network Possible congestion issues with Wi-Fi in public places such as airports Data speeds dependent on backhaul speeds and capacity
Access may not be as fast as when on the WAN
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Congestion Options (3)


! In-building sites using Distributed Antenna Networks (DAS)
Discussed later Requires full-building coverage, provides full data speeds, capacity Expensive option mostly for larger office complexes, subways, etc.

! Limit amount of data consumed by


Pricing plans, limit amount of data per customer per month
Most no longer offer all-you-can-eat data
Sprint most notable exception Usually 2-tier data plans: 2 GB, 5 GB per month plus overage fees Helps control data hogs who use 10GB of data or more per month

Reducing data speeds


Full speed access until monthly limit reached, reduced on overage Resets every month

Time-of-delivery charges
Not yet implemented: Download at 2 pm for $5.00, 2 am no extra charge

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Congestion Options (4)


! Smart Antennas
Smart antenna systems add capacity, data throughput
Steer capacity to specified user within cell sector

Expensive but important, not yet widely deployed

! Converting to LTE
AT&T warned 2G-only phone users to upgrade ASAP VoLTE will have to be proven viable LTE coverage must match todays 2G/3G coverage before practical
First in metro areas, move outward

Ultimate goal to convert all 2G/3G spectrum to LTE use LTE will become faster, have more capacity LTE Advanced will provide even more capacity, speed

! Future: New ways of spectrum utilization may help

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Network Congestion Conclusions


! Spectrum is a finite resource
Cannot make more of it Have to better use what we have

! Demand for wireless broadband increases each year


Streaming video might kill broadband 4% of users account for more than 50% of all broadband usage

! FCC pledged to find 500 MHz of additional broadband spectrum


Wont happen overnight Upcoming incentive auctions will help in 3-5 years, not now

! Network operators moving to LTE will help ! Network operators using most tools listed to manage their networks and exploding demand for data services
No one solution to this problem
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15 Minute Break!
Sponsored by:

The Role of Unlicensed Spectrum


Barney Dewey

TV White Space

White Space Communications


! White space is RF space between TV stations within a city ! Rules issued by FCC in autumn 2008
Devices to be smart, not interfere with TV Nationwide database being set up to track interference issues

! Little white space spectrum available in urban areas ! Have to wait to see how it plays out ! IEEE 802.11af expected mid-2014

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Urban-Area Examples
San Francisco

Los Angeles

New York

Chicago

Source: showmywhitespace.com, 4/2012


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Possible White Space Successes


! Spectrum Bridge
Only 4 success stories so far
Data rates 2 Mbps using priority technology Online database determines which channels can be used

Additional systems will use Wi-Fi standards on TV White Space band


Mix with Wi-Fi at 2.4 GHz or 5.8 GHz for deep in-building penetration White space spectrum could be used for backhaul, Wi-Fi to home

FCC evaluating approach as one it may permit

! White space services only available in smaller urban/suburban, rural areas ! Momentum is negative

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Augmenting Wide-Area Networks


Femtocells & Picocells, Boosters, and a Word about Cell Jammers Barney Dewey

In-Building Coverage
! Wireless services indoors a challenge to everyone
Getting RF inside a building requires cell site close enough Offices, homes with tinted windows difficult to penetrate

! Many solutions available for in-building coverage


Wi-Fi hotspots Complete on-premise cell sites with fiber to in-building antennas
Leaky coax cable

BDAs (Bi-Directional Antennas) Femtocells Picocells

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Wi-Fi Hotspots
! Take load off operators data network ! Supported by most smartphones ! Transparent voice over Wi-Fi supported by some operators
T-Mobile wraps GSM voice over Wi-Fi

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Bi-Directional Antennas
! Both require consent of spectrum license holder (network operator) ! BDAs require donor site
Existing network cell site Do not reduce traffic on wide-area network

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Femtocells
! ! ! ! ! ! ! Miniature cell sites designed for in-building coverage Use customers DSL/cable for backhaul Wi-Fi sometimes doubles as a femtocell (T-Mobile) Most support multiple voice calls and data Offered by AT&T, Sprint, Verizon in U.S. In Japan, SoftBank Mobile, January 2009 Vodaphone offers femtocells in Europe

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Picocells
! Picocells provide more coverage than femtocells ! Picocell systems (mini-cell sites)
Fiber along telephone poles Picocells mounted on power, light, or telephone poles Multiple business models
Wireless operators Another organization (e.g., convention center, mall, airport)
Company deploys fiber, installs picocells Monthly lease to networks on per-picocell basis

Residents generally oppose installations


Picocells on telephone poles are ugly Residents contend they are health issue

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Picocells

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More Capacity: Femtocells, Picocells, and More


! Network operators want to better manage their spectrum
Data usage soaring, voice calls increasing Spectrum is a finite resource

! Better spectrum management


Femtocells and Wi-Fi for in-building penetration
No carrier spectrum used

Picocells
Cover small areafewer customers per picocell Therefore, more total system capacity in a given area Picocells sometimes easier to permit than larger cell sites

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Analysis
! Network operators need more efficient use of spectrum ! BDAs provide coverage with no cellular infrastructure investment ! Femtocells and picocells take customers off wide-area network, reduces congestion ! These solutions solve many indoor coverage problems

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Wireless Local-Area Networks


Barney Dewey

Wi-Fi
! Designed as wireless extension of Ethernet
Wireless connectivity for last 300 feet IEEE standard 802.11

! Widely used for mobile deviceslaptops, mobile phones ! A bit of history


FCC approves unlicensed spread spectrum use May 1995 First products available mid-1999

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Wi-Fi Basics
! 802.11a (1999)
5-GHz band Raw data rate up to 54 Mbps
Typical maximum 19 Mbps

! 802.11b (1999)
2.4-GHz band Raw data rate up to 11 Mbps
Typical maximum 6 Mbps

! 802.11g (2003)
2.4-GHz band Raw data rate up to 54 Mbps
Typical maximum 19 Mbps

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Wi-Fi Basics
! 802.11n (2009)
2.4 or 5-GHz band Raw data rate up to 600 Mbps
Maximum 450 Mbps/typical ~85 Mbps

Uses 2 channels (40 MHz) Uses MIMO (multiple antennas and up to 4 data streams)

! 802.11ac (under development, final spec. expected late-2013)


5-GHz band only Raw data rate up to 3.47 Gbps
Maximum 1.35 Gbps/typical ~256 Mbps (generally 3x faster than 802.11n)

Uses 4 or 8 channels (80 or 160 MHz) Uses MIMO (multiple antennas and up to 8 data streams) 256-QAM modulation added

! 802.11ad (under development, final spec. expected mid-2012)


60 GHz, 7+ Gbps
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Wi-Fi Channels on 2.4 GHz


! 802.11a (not on 2.4 GHz)
Similar to g but only on 5 GHz

! 802.11b and 802.11g


Only 3 real channels available in U.S.

! 802.11n
Only 1 channel available

! 802.11ac (not on 2.4 GHz)


Zero channels

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Wi-Fi Channels5 GHz


! More than 5 times as much spectrum than 2.4 GHz ! 5 channels or more available for 802.11n ! 2 or more full channels (160 MHz) available for 802.11ac

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How Much Speed Do You Need?


! In a home
Few devices DSL / cable typically 3 to 20 Mbps Almost anything Wi-Fi will be faster than the link Exception: sending video throughout the home

! In a caf
Many devices Often link is T-1 (1.544 Mbps)much slower than home connections Again, almost any Wi-Fi will work but per-device performance poor

! In big office / campus



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Large number of devices Usually fast link (44 to 400 Mbps) Requires many channels, higher speeds to support number of devices 802.11n or 802.11ac on 5 GHz important in this environment

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Wi-Fi Security
! History
Original WEP (Wired Equivalent Privacy) method quickly compromised
Tools such as AirSnort, Aircrack-ng can quickly recover WEP encryption keys

2002, WPA (Wi-Fi Protected Access) added


Much more secure than WEP but exceeded design lifetime; can be compromised

2004, WPA2 ratified by IEEE


With strong, uncommon password, still considered secure

! Analysis
With WPA2, Wi-Fi considered secure Enterprises now adopt Wi-Fi, especially using VPN technology Security of little concern today if set up
Home uses WPA2 Enterprises use VPNs

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Wi-Fi in the Enterprise


! With 802.11n or 802.11ac, bandwidth, speed issues solved ! WPA2, VPNs solve security concerns ! The need
Mobility for laptops, tablets, smartphones is true need Use of Wi-Fi in workplace combined with 3G/4G solves most enterprise wireless mobility needs

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Wi-Fi Away from Home and Office


! In stores and shops
Many businesses supply good Wi-Fi connections
McDonalds, Starbucks, Barnes & Noble offer unlimited free Wi-Fi

Speed and capacity limited by single access point and backhaul

! AT&T offloads its 3G/4G network

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Municipal Wi-Fi
! Wi-Fi coverage mostly outside in cities
Wi-Fi access points on lamp posts connected by mesh backbone

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Municipal Wi-Fi TodayMostly Failed


! Poor coverage
Indoor coverage difficult from outdoor lamp post Capacity limited with 801.11a/b Interference from homes and stores

! Low speed
Interference Backbones often limited

! Expensive to install and operate


40 to 60 access points per mile Backend (authentication, mailboxes, etc.), backhaul, Internet access

! No business model (competition from free Wi-Fi, cellular operators)

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Municipal Wi-Fi Tomorrow


! 802.11n addresses some technical issues but
Lacks compatibility with many of todays devices Coverage is too limited Interference!

! Installation/maintenance costs remain high ! Alternative solutions better


Cellular broadband (3G, 4G) Free Wi-Fi grows at business locations
Stores Hotels

! Still no business model

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Wi-Fi Mobility
! No standard for Wi-Fi back-end mobility
Connection lost as device moves between access points

! Few enterprise back-end mobility implementations available today


SkyPilot Cisco Cable ServiceMesh

! Mobility increases costs of large Wi-Fi systems ! Limitations


Hand-off delays between access points can limit applications
VoIP dropouts

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New Wireless for Enterprises It All Comes Together


! Applications critical in field
Enterprise databases and applications needed everywhere Dashboards (up-to-the-minute operations performance monitoring)

! Devices easier to use with more functionally


Smartphones, tablets less expensive to deploy Ultrabooks, MacBook Air

! Networks, connectivity everywhere


Wi-Fi version 802.11n
Offers enterprises reliable campus mobility solutions Management and security solutions in place

Cellular wireless broadband (3G/4G)


Coverage, capacity improve Trend to metered pricing concerning enterprises

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Wireless Personal-Area Networks ZigBee, Bluetooth, 60 GHz, NFC


Barney Dewey

Personal-Area Network (PAN)


! A communications network among computer devices near an individual's body ! Typical devices: mobile phones, headsets, smartphones, displays ! Typical coverage: 30 feet ! ZigBee, Bluetooth, UWB ! Broad look
Person-to-device Device-to-device

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ZigBee Alliance and 802.15.4


! ZigBee focused on M2M (machine-to-machine) communications ! ZigBee is industry alliance for IEEE standard 802.15.4 with goal of providing interoperable network, security, application profiles ! 802.15.4 is IEEE standard for short-distance low-power networking technology ! Designed to be simpler, less expensive, low data rate applications, long battery life, secure networking than other wireless networks

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ZigBee Progress
! ! ! ! ! Ratification of ZigBee specification: December 2004 ZigBee specification released to public: June 13, 2005 Commercial deployments: 2006 100,000+ developer kits sold Major ZigBee promoters provide insight to future applications

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Technical Side of ZigBee


! Three frequency bands
2.4 GHz (global) 915 MHz (Americas) 868 MHz (Europe)

! Data rates
2.4 GHz: 250 Kbps on each of 16 channels 915 MHz: 40 Kbps on each of 10 channels 868 MHz: 20 Kbps on 1 channel More bands and channels coming

! Range: 50m typical (5-500m based on environment)


Each device can act as repeater

! Multiple topologies: star, peer-to-peer, mesh


Self-organizing ad hoc

! Two-way protocol for transfer reliability ! Very low power, battery life months to years ! Low latency with optional guaranteed time slot

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Initial Major ZigBee Applications


! Smart energy
Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)
Measure, collect, analyze energy usage Advanced meter reading (frequent communication of usage to utility)

Temperature control (shedding AC compressor)

! Home automation
Lighting control AV routing Thermostats

! Building automation
Replacement of lighting control wiring Room-by-room temperature control Remote control

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Additional ZigBee Applications


! Remote control
Controls for consumer electronic products

! Healthcare
Health management, patient monitoring

! Telecommunications services
Mobile device ability to pay for products and services, create gaming networks

! Retail services
Collection, delivery, selection, data sharing with customers, in-store and mobile payment retail applications

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Bluetooth
! Standard for exchanging data over short distances ! Bluetooth managed by Bluetooth Special Interest Group
15,000+ member companies

! Initial standard has grown to 4 interconnected standards

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Bluetooth Technology Overview


! Radio technology called frequency-hopping spread spectrum
Chops up data being sent, transmits chunks Uses up to 79 channels in 2402-2480 MHz range Frequency hops 1600 times per second

! Master/slave structure ! Up to 8 simultaneous devices can connect to form a piconet


Version 1.2 2.0 + EDR 3.0 + HS 4.0 Data Rate Descrip/on 1 Mbit/s Classic Bluetooth 3 Mbit/s Enhanced Data Rate 24 Mbit/s High Speed Incorporates all plus Bluetooth low energy

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Classic Bluetooth (2007)


! Versions 1.0 to 2.1 ! 2.1 adds Enhanced Data Rate (EDR)
2 to 3 times faster Near 2.1 Mbps throughput

! Secure simple pairing (SSP)

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Classic Bluetooth Applications


HEADSET PRINT TRANSFER

MUSIC

INPUT

Bluetooth Range 10 meters # Devices 8/ piconet Frequency 2.45 GHz Sleep Power 30A Standby Power 300A Tx Power 800A max Voice 3 per piconet Data Rates 721/56 or 432/432

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Bluetooth 3.0 (High Speed) (2009)


! ! ! ! Classic Bluetooth only sets up connection Wi-Fi used for data transfer up to 24 Mbps Adds enhanced power control Applications

Imaging

Music Player Synch

Large File Transfer

Video Streaming

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Bluetooth 4.0 (2010)


! Classic plus high speed (3.0) plus Bluetooth low energy ! Low power
Integration of Wibree technology 1/100 to of classic power consumption Latency from 100 ms to less than 6 ms

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Low-Power Applications for Bluetooth

Sports & Fitness Healthcare Home & Entertainment Office & Mobile Accessories Automotive Watch
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Bluetooth Analysis
! Bluetooth moves from name of technology to brand for personal-area networking ! Bluetooths biggest challenge is to keep it simple
More opportunity to confuse consumers with ultra-low power, highspeed implementations No longer one Bluetooth

! Opportunity
Leverage brand name for new consumer applications Leverage Bluetooth experience for setup, discovery, connection management

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Ultra Wide Band (UWB) Technology


! Technology overview
Data spread across huge amount of spectrum Any radio technology having bandwidth exceeding lesser of 500 MHz or 20% of center frequency (FCC definition) Unlicensed use in frequency range 3.1 to 10.6 GHz (FCC) Can also be used for radar and imaging

! Licensing of IP (Intellectual Property) conflicts have slowed applications ! Wireless USB standardized in September 2010
Wireless replacement for USB 2.0 standard (up 480 Mbit/s)

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60 GHz
! Higher power, higher bandwidth
Up to 7 Gbps initially Future to 25 Gbps Very short range (30) likely

! Primary applications
Very large data files Multiple HD video streams

! Competing standards
Wireless Gigabit AllianceWiGig
Supported by Wi-Fi Alliance AMD, Cisco, Broadcom, Dell Intel, Microsoft, Panasonic, Samsung, TI

WirelessHDWireless Display or WiDi


Broadcom, Intel, LG, Panasonic, Philips, NEC, Samsung, SiBEAM, Toshiba Initial products shipping

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60 GHz Analysis
! Possibility next high-speed video PAN for living room ! WiGig and WiDi standards may co-exist ! WiGig standard may become part of Wi-Fi standard
802.11ad Other Wi-Fi modes may set up 60 GHz link with beam forming to improve range

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Near Field Communications


! ! ! ! ! NFC is a set of extremely short-range wireless technologies Typical range is less than 4 cm to 20 cm NFC operates at 13.56 MHz Data rates from 106 kbit/s to 848 kbit/s NFC communication always involves initiator and target
Initiator actively generates RF field that can power a passive target (tags, stickers, key fobs, etc.) NFC peer-to-peer communication
Both devices are powered (mobile phones, etc.)

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NFC Applications
! Mobile payment
Acts as debit/credit card

! ! ! !

Mobile ticketing Bluetooth pairing Identity documents Electronic keys


Replacements for physical car, house/office, hotel room keys, etc.)

! Growing number of phones support NFC


See current list at http://www.nfcworld.com/nfc-phones-list/

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Q&A

Quick Break Before Lunch


Please return promptly so we can start at 12:15 pm

Lunchtime Speaker

Lunch sponsored by:

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The 3G/4G Evolution


Rasmus Hellberg Ph.D. Sr. Director Technical Marketing

May 7th 2012, Andrew Seybold Wireless University

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Multiple Solutions Required to Meet The Data Demand Growth Challenge

SPECTRUM
More Spectrum leverage all spectrum assets

BETTER TECHNIQUES
Evolve 3G/4G and leverage advanced receivers Make voice more efficient to free up resources for data

OFFLOAD
Smart Wi-Fi Offload leverage unlicensed spectrum

HETNETS
Bring network closer to the usersmall cells/HetNets

topics for todays talk


110

Spectrum Section To Be Added Later

111

Circuit Voice Has A Long Life During The Transition to Richer, Carrier Grade VoIP

IMS VoIP: Rich Voice Ubiquity vs. OTT VoIP


VoLTE Timing is Operator Specific VoIP over HSPA+ Driven by VoLTE
Fallback to 2G/3G voice (CSFB) used by most LTE operators while the VoLTE ecosystem is being developed and expanded

Proven Circuit Voice: High Quality, Reliable, Ubiquitous1


WCDMA+: Long life of HSPA+ means long life of WCDMA 1X Advanced Commercial (1H 2012)

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1Thanks

to soft handover, proven interoperability and 10+ years of 1X/WCDMA optimizations. OTT=Over-The-Top, voice just like any data service without Quality of Service

Qualcomm: Comprehensive Voice Evolution Leadership


2012 2013 2014 2015+ 2020+

IMS VoIP: Evolving to a Richer Carrier Grade Voice Service


2G/3G Provides Voice

VoLTE
Packet Handover

Seamless Transitions

VoIP over HSPA+ (EV-DO) CSFB1 SRVCC2

WCDMA 1X

WCDMA+

1X Advanced

Circuit Switched Voice: Evolving To Support More Data


Blue: Qualcomm Technology Leadership
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1CSFB:

Circuit Switched Fallback. 2SRVCC: Single Radio Voice Call Continuity to enable handover to WCDMA/1X/GSM CS voice outside VoLTE coverage.

2G/3G Provides LTE Voice Today And Future VoLTE Fallback


2G/3G Provides Voice
CSFB1 to WCDMA, 1X or GSM voice is commercial since 2011.

VoLTEIMS VoIP over LTE


Ccommercialization with SRVCC1 starting in 2013, maturing in 2015

Today: Fallback to 2G/3G for all voice calls

VoLTE: Fallback1 to 2G/3G, or handover to VoHSPA+, outside LTE coverage

LTE (FDD or TDD)

2G/3G Voice & EV-DO/HSPA+ Data


Voice Continuity and Global Roaming
114
1SRVCC:

Single Radio Voice Call Continuity. CSFB: Circuit Switched Fallback.

115

1X Advanced Frees Up Spectrum for Data


1X Advanced
Up to

CDMA2000 1X
x
Voice users
EVRC Single RX

3x
Voice users

4x
Voice users

1.5x
Voice users
Single Antenna Mobile Rx Diversity

EVRC-B QLIC (device IC)

BTS IC + Adv. QLIC Radio Link Enhancements

New device Network upgrades

New device New channel card

Same Voice Capacity in ~ of the Spectrum


Voice Voice Data

CDMA2000 1X

1X Adv

EV-DO (or LTE)

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WCDMA Circuit Voice Has a Very Long Life Thanks to the Success of HSPA+
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
4G LTE

2030

Launch of Mobile Technology Peak device volume1


~20 years

~20 years

3G/4G HSPA/HSPA+ 3G - WCDMA


~20 years

2G - GSM
~20 years

1G - AMPS
~20 years

Future Extrapolation

~20 years from launch of a new mobile technology generation to peak device volume
117 1Sources:

ABI June 2011 and Strategy Analytics Sept 2011, devices is only handset. A multimode device is counted only as the latest technology, e.g. a GSM/HSPA+/LTE device is counted as LTE.

2 Billion HSPA/HSPA+ Subscribers in 2015 Will Be Using WCDMA voice


HSPA/HSPA+ relies on WCDMA for voice
Connections (Millions) 2,500 HSPA/HSPA+ MBB* connections in 2015

2,000 HSPA Family 1,500 HSPA/HSPA+ MBB* connections in 2012 EV-DO Family TD-SCDMA LTE WiMax 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,000

500

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Source: HSPA, EV-DO ,TD-SCDMA and LTE subs Wireless Intelligence (Oct 11) and WiMax - ABI (Aug 11)

WCDMA+ Triples Voice Spectral Efficiency


~2/3 of a Carrier Freed up for Data by Enhancing Circuit Switched Voice

~ 40% FREED-UP FOR DL DATA HSPA/ HSPA+ Data


(DL)

~2/3 FREED-UP FOR DL DATA HSPA/ HSPA+ Data


(DL)

WCDMA

Voice

SAME VOICE CAPACITY

Voice

SAME VOICE CAPACITY

Voice

WCDMA

RADIO LINK ENHANCEMENTS1

ENHANCED VOICE CODEC (EVS)2

WCDMA+
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Assumptions: single receive antenna and rake receiver assumed for voice, dual receive diversity assumed for data. 12WCDMA+ enhancements targeted for 3GPP R12 1AMR 12.2k vocoder. 2EVS 5.9kbps VBR Wideband mode.

More Data Capacity at All Voice Loads


100% Data

AVAILABLE DATA VS. VOICE IN A 5MHz CARRIER

1.4x more data

5x more data

WCDMA+ Voice

DOWNLINK DATA CAPACITY


(HSPA/HSPA+)

WCDMA Voice

0 users
120

25 users

48 users

VOICE LOAD

Assumptions: Single receive diversity and rake receiver assumed for voice, dual receive diversity assumed for data.

WCDMA+ Ensures High Quality, Reliable and Ubiquitous Voice


Builds on Proven WCDMA Voice1 Global Roaming in Global Bands

Simultaneous Voice and HSPA+ Data Extended Talk-Time2

Leverages Existing Investments

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1High

quality tanks to soft handover, proven interoperability and 10+ years of WCDMA circuit switched voice optimizations. 2Current consumption reduced by 10% with WCDMA+

WDCMA+ Addresses all Device Segments

Cost-Effective Penetration Across All Device Segments


Basic featuressuch as single receive diversity and no HSPA+ requiredensures cost-effective entry/low-end devices1 Latest HSPA+, dual receive diversity and latest advanced receivers2 provide even better performanceespecially for data services

Need to address all device segments including 50% of shipped handsets in 2015 that are not Smartphones3
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1Single

receive diversity and rake receiver required for stated gains. 2Such as device equalizer and interference cancellation using Q-ICETM 3Source: Average of Gartner, IDC and Strategy Analytics (September 2011).

Summary: More Efficient Voice to Support More Data

WCDMA+
Triples Voice Spectral Efficiency
To free up resources for data

Can Free Up ~2/3 of a Carrier for HSPA+ Data


While supporting the same voice capacity as WCDMA today

Ensures High Quality, Reliable, Ubiquitous Voice


WCDMA+ builds on proven WCDMA Voice

Relevant to All HSPA/HSPA+ Operators


The long life of HSPA+ means a long life of WCDMAAddresses all device segments

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Bring Network Closer to User


IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT ADDING SMALL CELLSOPTIMIZATIONS FURTHER IMPROVE PERFORMANCE

HSPA+ Advanced

DO Advanced

LTE Advanced

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Macro/WAN
Cost Effective Wide Area Solution

Pico/Metro
Very Low-Cost Targeted Solution

Femto/LAN
Extreme Low-Cost Indoor Local Area Network

Leverage Heterogeneous NetworksHetNets


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Small Cells Everywhere


LOWER COST AND SMALLER SIZE

126

Picocells Remote Radio heads

Range Expansion

Optimizations for Even Higher Capacity and Enhanced User Data Rates
Picocell Range expansionbetter small cells utilization: HSPA+ Today (Frequency domain)
Restricted or open access Femtocells

LTE Advanced (Time domain) Smart Network Techniques exploiting uneven load even more beneficial for Hetnets

Its not just about adding small cells Optimization Further Improves Performance
127

LTE Advanced Range Expansion Further Improves HetNets

1X
Macro Only

LTE R8

LTE R8

1.4X

with Range Expansion

2.8X

LTE Advanced

Picocell

Macro +Picos

Macro +Picos
Picocell

Picocell

Data Rate Improvement


Median downlink data rate1

Range Expansion
BETTER UTILIZATION OF SMALL CELLS

128

Assumptions: 4 Picos added per macro and 33% of users dropped in clusters closer to picos (hotspots) : 10 MHz FDD, 2x2 MIMO, 25 users and 500m ISD. Advanced interference management: enhanced time-domain adaptive resource partitioning, advanced receiver devices with enhanced RRM and RLM1Similar gain for the uplink

HSPA+ Range Expansion Possible Today


LEVERAGING DUAL-CARRIER AND PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION

3.1X

Range Expansion

Reduce second carrier Macro Power

1.6 X

CARRIER 2

1X
Pico 4 Picos Dual-Carrier added Macro, Range Expansion Dual-Carrier Device
CARRIER 1

Macro

Data Rate Improvement


Median downlink data rate

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4 Picos added per macro and 50 % of users dropped in clusters closer to picos (within 40m), Model PA3 full buffer ISD 500m. Enabling range expansion features: reduced power on second macro carrier , dual carrier devices and mitigating uplink and downlink imbalance (3dB Cell-individual offset (CIO) and pico noise-figure pad)

Quick Break
Please return promptly so we can start at 1:15 pm

Afternoon Session
! Devices and Operating Systems
Smartphones, tablets/readers Netbooks/Laptops/Ultrabooks Operating Systems/Ecosystems

! Follow the Money: Panel Discussion ! Break

! Whats Driving the Need for More Bandwidth


More capabilities in tablets New devices The Cloud Streaming video

! Commentary and Predictions ! Counterpoint ! Interactive Q&A


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Mobile Devices
Robert OHara

Mobile Devices Matter


! We are (finally) entering the post-PC world ! Worldwide smartphone sales eclipsed PC sales last year
2500

2000

1500 Tablets Smartphones 1000 PCs

500

0 2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 Source: Gartner 2012

Worldwide units in 1000s

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Mobile Devices Matter


! Worldwide Internet growth accelerates ! Mobile devices will drive this growth
3000

2500

2000

1500

Mobile Fixed

1000

500

0 2005 Worldwide units in 1000s

2010

2015 Source: Morgan Stanley 2010

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Wireless Device Categories Expand


! Wireless connectivity now a feature in many mobile devices
PCs Tablets eBook readers Phones Handheld game consoles Handheld GPS navigation devices Music players Cars Dog collars

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From Feature Phones to Smartphones


! Worldwide, smartphones are the minority ! In the US, smartphones now at 50% ! Smartphone growth highest among young, affluent
15% 14% Apple HTC LG Motorola 26% 19% RIM Samsung Other

6%

7%

13%

Share of 234 million US subscribers

Source: comScore 2012

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Mobile Game Consoles


! Under threat from smartphones and tablets
Game experience more than adequate for most users Casual games have attracted many new users
80% 70% 60% 50% Apple / Google 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 Nintendo Sony

US Portable Game Software by Revenue

Source: Flurry Analytics 2011

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Tablets
! Total sales approaching those of PCs
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2016 Source: Gartner Worldwide units in 1000s (excluding eBook readers) Apple Google Microsoft RIM

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eBook Readers
! Maintaining their distinction from tablets ! Color tablets start to blur that line

6% 5%

22%

Amazon Barnes & Noble Sony Other 67%

US Market Share 2010

Source: Goldman Sachs 2011

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Netbooks and Ultrabooks


! Netbooks never gained market traction
Use underpowered Intel Atom processor Now at $300 - $400 price

! Ultrabooks comparable to MacBook Air


Use Intel Core i3 or i5 processors Good performance and 9+ hours battery life Typically 13 screen, less than 3 pounds, solid state hard drive

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Mobile Platform Players


! Apple: iOS
OS, devices, app store

! Google: Android
OS, devices (Motorola), app store HTC, LG, Samsung, others: devices

! Microsoft: Windows Phone


OS, app store HTC, LG, Nokia, Samsung, others: devices

! RIM: BlackBerry
OS, devices, app store

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Smartphone Platform Market Share


! Android grows, Microsoft catches Apple, Symbian disappears
600,000

500,000

400,000 Apple Google 300,000 Microsoft Nokia 200,000 RIM

100,000

0 2010 Worldwide units in 1000s 2011 2012 2015 Source: Gartner

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Mobile Platform Notes


! Apple iOS
Closed environment, Apple controls the App Store iOS dominates application market Some late indications Apple gaining share at Googles expense

! Google Android
Most popular platform Android Marketplace more open than Apples (this is good and bad) Fragmentation continues to be a problem Motorola acquisition will be challenging
Google is now competing with other Android phones Can Motorola survive? (Or was it just about the patents?)

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Mobile Platform Notes


! Microsoft Windows Phone
Last chance for Microsoft, Nokia: 2011 market share in single digits Success tied to that of Windows 8 on PCs and tablets Microsoft will throw a lot of money at this
Deal with Barnes & Noble only latest example Expect further announcements when Windows 8 launches

! RIM BlackBerry
Market share in significant decline; management turnover and turmoil Has never attracted consumers New phone is controversial BlackBerry 10 is new OS based on QNX
No backward compatibility with BlackBerry 7 Winning developers will be a challenge

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Mobile Device Notes


! HTC
Attempted to establish HTC as brand name US market share down from 2010

! Motorola
Feature phone business shrinking Does Google really want to make phones?

! Samsung
Now leading phone maker worldwide Not committed to one platform Creates multiple versions of same phone Expanding into tablets, music players

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Mobile Device Usage Trends


! Applications are a $10B market
Growing at 100% per year

! Email, messaging and (even) phone calls ! Social media: Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare (LBS) ! Content consumption 80%
Some paid for Ad viewing
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Texting Used downloaded app Browsing Social networking Gaming Music listening

! ! ! !

Casual games Music Shopping Flight check-in

Source: comScore

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Application Market Share


! Apple continues to lead
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Apple Google Microsoft RIM

Total applications (including tablets) in 1000s

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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Observations and Predictions


! Smartphones and tablets still dwarfed by feature phones ! Game is not yet over

13%

Smartphone Feature phone

Total: 6.4 billion devices 87%

Source: Morgan Stanley

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2011 Smartphone Scorecard


! Apple: iPhone
Mindshare leader

! Google: Android
Growing fast, must avoid fragmentation

! HP: WebOS (Palm)


Doubtful that HP can rescue

! Microsoft: Windows Phone 7


Nokia partnership gives it a chance, still uphill struggle

! Nokia: Symbian
No future with Nokia switching to Windows Phone 7

! RIM: BlackBerry
Still business leader, must become attractive to consumers

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2011 Smartphone Scorecard


! Apple: iPhone
Mindshare leader

! Google: Android
Growing fast, must avoid fragmentation

! HP: WebOS (Palm)


Doubtful that HP can rescue

5 of 6 correct!

! Microsoft: Windows Phone 7


Nokia partnership gives it a chance, still uphill struggle

! Nokia: Symbian
No future with Nokia switching to Windows Phone 7

! RIM: BlackBerry
Still business leader, must become attractive to consumers

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2012 Smartphone Scorecard


! Apple: iPhone
Continued dominance

! Google: Android
Challenges: Android fragmentation, Motorola acquisition

! HP: WebOS (Palm)


RIP

! Microsoft: Windows Phone 7


Success possible, but still a long shot; watch Windows 8 launch

! Nokia: Symbian
RIP

! RIM: BlackBerry
Independent survival unlikely

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Where Investors Are Placing Their Bets

Participants

Roundtable Panelists Roman Kikta Managing Partner and Co-Founder, Genesis Campus and Mobility Ventures Rory Moore CEO, CommNexus San Diego Mike Melito Director, South Coast Angel Fund Moderator Bob Chapin Partner, Andrew Seybold, Inc.

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Quick Break
Please return promptly Sponsored by:

What Is Driving the Need for More Bandwidth


Barney Dewey

Bandwidth
! The speed or amount of information (data) sent to and from a device
Speed usually expressed in megabits per second (Mbps) Amount of information expressed as gigabytes per month (GB)

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TV
! Streaming video to computers, tablets, TVs ! Netflix
29.7% of overall downstream traffic in U.S. (Source Sandvine, 2011)

! Trend to watch video on tablets, laptops ! Existing TV providers want to beat Netflix

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High-Resolution Displays
! HD 2K ! New iPad 3K

! Future TV 4K

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Better Wireless Capability


! Capacity drives use ! Use drives capacity ! LTE ! HSPA+, +42, +84 ! New iPad with LTE has enabled users to break data plans in a day

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New Uses
! Google Goggles
Image recognition on smartphones

! Google Glasses
An annotated view

! Messaging systems
BlackBerry Messenger iMessage

! Siri
Voice recognition, responses, actions 3 times more data

! The Cloud
Backups Audio, video, documents

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Data Trending Up
! Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in 2011 ! Last year's mobile data traffic 8 times that of entire global Internet in 2000 ! Mobile video traffic 52% of traffic by end of 2011 Mobile Data Traffic ! 2011, 4G devices generated 28 times more traffic than 3G ! 2011, each tablet generated 3.4 times more traffic than average smartphone

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Analysis
! Mobile data will increase 18 to 20 times from 2011 to 2016 ! Cellular operators need to provide more capacity
More data, same or lower rates

! Other air-based services will lose spectrum


Digital TV compaction

! New technologies will not solve all of the problem


More spectrum needed More cell sites needed Picocells

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Commentary and Predictions


Andrew M. Seybold

Public Safety Broadband Network


! Nationwide, fully interoperable network
Based on commercial 4G technology (LTE) In same portion of spectrum (700 MHz) as AT&T, Verizons new LTE networks

! Took Public Safety Alliance, APCO more than 3 years to convince Congress public safety needs D Block for sufficient bandwidth ! Authorization in tax bill signed into law February 22, 2012 ! Now they have the spectrum, a lot of work to do! ! Designed to AUGMENT, not replace, existing mission-critical voice networks ! Voice MAY be possible in the future

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H.R. 3630 Title VI


! Passed Congress February 17, 2012 ! Signed in to law February 22, 2012 ! Quick Summary
Requires FCC to allocate D Block spectrum to public safety Establishes First Responder Network Authority (FirstNet) to govern PSBN Provides $7 billion to build out nationwide public safety broadband network Provides $135 million for state and local implementation grants Provides up to $300 million for research and development grants Provides $115 million for 9-1-1, NG 9-1-1 grants Requires public safety to give back T-Band (470-512 MHz) in 9 years used heavily for narrowband voice in 13 major metro areas

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PSBN: 20 MHz of Broadband Spectrum


Public Safety 700 MHz
20 MHz of broadband spectrum, 12 MHz of narrowband spectrum
Base Transmit (Downlink)
746 806 C 11 (Verizon Wireless) 757 758 A 1 763 768 769 PS BB 5 G B 1 PS NB 6 775 776 B 1 C 11 (Verizon Wireless)

Mobile Transmit (Uplink)


787 788 A 1 793 798 799 PS BB 5 G B 1 PS NB 6 805 B 1

D 5 62

D 5 67

60

61

63

64

65

66

68

69

AT&T LTE In Lower 700-MHz Band

Single Nationwide Public Safety Broadband License (PSBL) (Licensed to the Public Safety Spectrum Trust) To Be Licensed to the First Responder Network Authority Spectrum Allocated To Public Safety By Congress (HR3630) on February 17, 2012 To Be Licensed to the First Responder Network Authority

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Public Safety Broadband


! ! ! ! ! Nationwide Interoperable Adds data, streaming audio, video to public safety in the field Enables operations center, incident commander to see in real time Dispatch will include video from nearest camera
Incoming units will be able to see what they are heading into

! IC and swat commanders will be able to see what sniper sees through scope ! Real-time, full-motion video (within reason) will change public safety forever ! Full 12-lead EKG, ultrasound, other vital signs for EMS ! Other applications will make life on the street easier and safer!

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Broadband Will Change!


! ! ! ! ! ! ! Video from dispatch to units responding Video from scene to dispatch/EOC Incident command will have total view into incident Building plans sent to responders en route Hazardous materials types, locations Police/fire/EMS will all have access However, devices that include public safety spectrum plus Verizon AND AT&T will be more expensive
Device with Verizon (upper C Band) and AT&T (lower A and B Bands) about $8-10 more per device
Requires two sets of filters and duplexers At least one 850 or 1900 MHz band will have to be left out of devices

! Public safety has its own PLMN-ID designator for this network

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700-MHz Devices Covering all 700-MHz Spectrum


! AT&T has spectrum in lower part of 700 MHz
A Band: 5X5 MHz B Band 5X5 MHz Qualcomm spectrum below that

! Verizon has upper C Band 11X11 MHz ! Public safety now has 10X10 MHz directly above C Block ! Cost to build device to cover entire band +$8-$10

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One Device for All 700 MHz


! Wanted by smaller network operators (T-Mobile, others)
Want wide choice of devices at good prices on 700 MHz A few devices today on 850, 1900 MHz, higher cost, cannot purchase in same volumes as larger operators

! Not wanted by larger network operators


Will add $8-10 to cost of each device
If they sell 50 million devices, that is a LOT of money!

No LTE roaming agreements between major network operators Public safety wants PS band included ONLY in devices purchased by public safety
Even though public safety network will be secure Public safety does not want every device to include its spectrum; could result in hackers

! FCC reviewing situation, will make a decision soon

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LightSquared
! LightSquared owns spectrum just above GPS band
Licensed for satellite with terrestrial fill-in

! Nov. 2010, asked FCC for waiver to modify license to permit full LTE terrestrial network ! Jan. 2011, FCC International Bureau granted conditional waiver ! GPS community organized to stop LightSquared ! Test conducted over several years
Proving LightSquared will interfere with GPS on lower spectrum

! LightSquared modified proposal to move terrestrial network higher in its band ! New tests, outcry from military, FAA, Congress, and others ! FCC stays waiver, LightSquared now in limbo, perhaps near bankruptcy
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DISH Network
! DISH also applied for waiver to use satellite spectrum for LTE terrestrial network ! DISHs spectrum is 2 GHz and above, further from GPS spectrum
GPS operates at 1215-1240 MHz

! FCC MUCH more cautious, carefully reviewing DISH waiver


Likely FCC will grant waiver

! Why LightSquared and DISH are interested in LTE


700-MHz spectrum has only two major competitors, AT&T, Verizon FCC, Congress, others want more competition LightSquared, DISH want to build wholesale network, resell services

! Model has failed in the past!

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Will FCC Find 500 MHz of Spectrum?


! In National Broadband Report, FCC promised
300 MHz of new spectrum for broadband within 5 years Additional 200 MHz in years 5-10 Where it will come from
Can push higher into spectrum band, relocate more microwave
But this spectrum requires MANY cell sites for coverage

Can push TV stations out of channels 31-51 (180 MHz)


Ideal spectrum for wireless broadband Broadcasters will fight hard, powerful lobby

Can reclaim more government spectrum


AWS-1 spectrum was half government, half commercial NTIA and federal will not let their spectrum go easily

FCC will re-allocate spectrum over time, probably find 300 MHz
Real question is if it can find next 200 MHz

! Todays FCC believes broadband is our future

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Spectrum Auctions
! Three types of auctions coming
Existing spectrum available for auction within next 3 years TV incentive auctions TV band repacking and auctions

! Existing spectrumAWS-2, AWS-3 + 15 MHz

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Incentive Auctions
! TV spectrum will be auctioned by incentive ! TV stations will be able to voluntarily give up 6-MHz channels, receive some auction proceeds
Permitted to relocate to lower portion of TV band

! This auction will be a total failure!


If a TV station on channel 48 in Boston elects to give up the spectrum and a channel 48 station in Philadelphia decides not to, the spectrum is not worth much Unless each TV channel in top 20 is cleared on a nationwide basis there will be patchwork of 6-MHz spectrum segments Will make it impossible to use for broadband wireless

! Once this auction fails, FCC will be able to re-farm TV spectrum

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TV Spectrum Re-Farming
! After incentive auctions, FCC will look at re-farming upper TV channels
E.g., would require TV stations between Channels 31 and 51 to relocate lower in the spectrum opening up 120 MHz of prime spectrum for broadband Cost to relocate a TV station a lot less than moving radio users off a portion of spectrum Spectrum would bring in $billions for the U.S. Treasury

! FCC required to keep plenty of TV white space for unlicensed use


Some TV stations will have to share same channel

! National Association of Broadcasters will fight repacking; has a lot of clout with Congress ! Prognosis: This spectrum is years away from becoming available!
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Predictions & Comments

How Many Networks


! How many networks per area
Can thrive or survive Can make money

! Today
Most major markets have
3 or more wired broadband networks 4 nationwide wireless broadband networks 2-3 regional networks and/or MVNOs Thousands of Wi-Fi access pointsmore and more are free

5 years from now


3 or more wired broadband networks 4 nationwide networks with 4G broadband services
Could be 5 or 6 if Clearwire, DISH included

4-5 regional networks Thousands of free access points 1 or 2 TV White Space network providers
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How Many Networks


! Will they all survive? ! Example: San Francisco Bay Area
3.5 million people plus 15 million visitors (Convention Bureau stats) Todays networks
Wired: 2 (no fiber today) Wireless
Nationwide: 4 Regional: 4 (includes MVNOs)

Total broadband providers: 10

! San Francisco in 5 years (as projected)


Total networks: 17
Wired: 3 (includes fiber) Wireless nationwide: 6 (includes Clearwire, DISH) Regional and WISPs: 8

! My bet is that they cannot ALL survive


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T-Mobiles Future
! T-Mobile spectrum-constrained in U.S.
Has spectrum in 1900-MHz, AWS-1 bands
1900-MHz spectrum for GSM/GPRS/EDGE (2G, 2+G systems) AWS-1 spectrum where HSPA/HSPA+ is deployed Needs LTE to compete; where will it get spectrum?
Additional AWS-1 in payment for collapse of AT&T merger Needs more spectrum soon, will deploy LTE

! Merger or acquisition
Who has spectrum? Clearwire/Sprint/MetroPCS/Leap Wireless Who has money? Probably not Clearwire or Sprint For comparison purposes
T-Mobile average 54 MHz per metro market AT&T average 91 MHz per metro market Verizon average 91 MHz per market Combination Sprint Nextel, Clearwire more than 200 MHz per market
(Sprint Nextel 53 MHz, Clearwire 150 MHz)
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T-Mobile Spectrum Options


! Had counted on 700-MHz D Block
27 MHz short of AT&T, Verizon D Block was re-allocated to public safety Will bid heavily for new AWS-2, 3 spectrum adjacent to AWS-1 holdings

! Options
Merge with Sprint Nextel, add 53 MHz of spectrum, new total 107 MHz
Would also own 54% of Clearwire with access to another 150 MHz

Can wholesale on DISH Networks LTE network (if approved by FCC)


Will take a few years for approvals, network build-out; T-Mobile needs spectrum NOW

Could buy DISH outright Could wait for FCC to release some new spectrum and bid on it (not usable for up to 5 years) None of the above! The wild card in the U.S. network business

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Google
! Wants Internet to become congested and slow ! Owns more dark fiber than any other U.S. company ! Goal is to build Googlenet
Charge for high-speed premium access AND capture eyeballs

! Meanwhile, will invest in, partner in wireless and wireless companies, show up at wireless auctions ! Wants every eyeball in the world focused on its ads ! Already infiltrated Executive Branch of government via CTOs office, wont stop there
Pulling strings on broadband activities in many places Can bet it has more up its sleeves coming at us!

! Believe Google will spin off Motorola Mobility without patents


Motorola value will be significantly reduced

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Predictions for 2012 and 2013


! T-Mobile will move toward LTE and find a partner ! Verizon/cable deal will be approved and move forward ! DISH Network will get FCC go-ahead for terrestrial LTE network
Follow LightSquared model for wholesale network

! LightSquared will finally give up and file bankruptcy


Without terrestrial network, value of spectrum plummets

! ! ! ! ! !

Clearwire will move quickly into LTE and take on more resellers AT&T will move to catch up with Verizon and make major gains LTE iPhone for U.S.-only will be announced in 2012 Windows 8 phones and tablets will catch on Android will lose market share due to Google control concerns RIM will license OS to others and rebuild

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Predictions for 2011 and 2012


! FCC Chairman will resign before end of 2012 ! Network operators will start offering new data plan pricing
Multiple devices, one contract, share data among devices Family data plan Big leap: data-only plan for iPhone (50 mins voice) from one operator

! ! ! !

Sprint will do away with all-you-can-eat data plans PTT over cellular will become popular among younger users Apple will finally experience fierce competitor for iPad First public safety broadband systems will come online
Charlotte in time to be used during DNC Harris County, Texas

! Price of Wi-Fi on airlines will come down by 25% ! First TV White Space systems will be placed into service
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Point and Counter Point


Barney Dewey and Robert OHara

Open Forum Q and A

WHEN YOU WANT STRAIGHT ANSWERS


Wireless Intelligence: Consulting Insight Education

andrewseybold.com

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