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Market Outlook

August 2, 2013

Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open in the positive tracking the positive opening
trades in the SGX Nifty and most of the other Asian markets.

Domestic Indices

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

BSE Sensex

(0.1)

(29) 19,317

Nifty

(0.2)

(14)

5,728

MID CAP

(1.7)

(93)

5,451

SMALL CAP

(1.2)

(64)

5,247

BSE HC

(0.2)

(17)

9,057

BSE PSU

(2.8)

(150)

5,299

BANKEX

1.2

138 11,579

AUTO

(1.5)

(160) 10,409

METAL

(1.8)

(126)

6,756

Meanwhile, Indian shares ended an extremely choppy session modestly lower on


Thursday despite firm Asian and European cues. Investor sentiment took a hit after
Goldman Sachs downgraded its rating on Indian stocks to "underweight" and
Financial Technologies-promoted National Spot Exchange (NSEL) suspended
trading in all contracts except "e-series" until further notice because of poor
volumes on the exchange following a government order. The NSEL said that it
would announce a revised settlement calendar for settling all pending contacts
after expiry of 15 days.

OIL & GAS

(2.6)

(223)

8,356

BSE IT

(0.2)

(14)

7,444

(Pts)

(Close)

Markets Today

The US markets after moving sharply higher in early trading continued to perform
well throughout the session on Thursday with traders reacting positively to a batch
of largely upbeat economic data. The strong gains on the day lifted the Dow and
the S&P 500 to new record closing highs, with the S&P 500 closing above 1,700
for the first time. The major averages held on to strong gains going to the close,
finishing the session near their best levels of the day. Meanwhile, the European
stock markets gained ground on Thursday, with banks and miners pacing the
gainers, as investors cheered China's better-than-expected official PMI data, solid
earnings reports and the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision to
leave its bond-buying program unchanged at $85 billion a month

S2

S1

PIVOT

R1

0.8

NASDAQ

1.4

49

3,676

FTSE

0.9

61

6,682

Nikkei

2.5

337 14,006

Hang Sang

0.9

205 22,089

Straits Times

0.7

21

3,243

Shanghai Com

1.8

35

2,029

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY

0.3

0.1

$49.8

R2

WIT

2.0

0.2

$8.8

0.9

0.3

$33.1

2.4

0.8

$33.7

Indian ADR

SENSEX

18,954

19,135

19,352

19,534

19,751

IBN

NIFTY

5,606

5,667

5,738

5,799

5,869

HDB

News Analysis

Auto Monthly - July 2013


Lupin receives USFDA nod for Ranexa Extendedrelease tablets
Result Review: Idea, RCom, Bank of Baroda, GSK, Tata Global, Union Bank,
JKBank, Ceat
Result Preview: Coal India, BHEL, Canara Bank, OBC Bank, Bank of
Maharashtra, KEC International
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 31, 2013)


` cr
FII
MFs

Purch
5,001
957

Sales
4,824
941

Net
177
16

MTD
(5,909)
(2,169)

YTD
65,397
(14,346)

FII Derivatives (July 31, 2013)


` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures

Purch
2,539
2,734

Sales
2,501
2,328

Net
38
406

Open Interest
11,192
25,535

Gainers / Losers
Company

Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)

Adani Ports
TV18 Broadcast
Strides Arco
Axis Bank
HDFC Bank

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Company

141

12.2

Financial Tech

19

8.3

IRB Infra

631

7.2

MCX

1,085

4.9

JPPOWER

632

3.7

Jaiprakash Asso

Chg (%)

Dow Jones

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,352/ 5,738 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,534 19,751 / 5,799 5,869 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,352 / 5,738 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,135 18,954 / 5667 5,606 levels.
Indices

Global Indices

Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
192

(64.6)

54

(25.5)

512

(20.0)

(12.5)

32

(10.5)

128 15,628

Advances / Declines

BSE

NSE

Advances

761

396

1,461

913

133

72

Declines
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)

BSE

2,245

NSE

12,992

Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Auto Monthly July 2013


Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland (AL) reported better-than-expected volumes with total sales posting
a strong growth of 25.4% mom to 8,739 units; albeit on a low base of last month.
However on a yoy basis, the volumes continue to be impacted by the slowdown in
the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment (down 10.4% yoy) which led
to a 10.7% yoy decline in total volumes. Dost reported subdued volumes with sales
declining by 11.5% yoy to 2,480 units.

Hero MotoCorp
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) posted a marginal growth of 0.7% yoy (down 2.9% mom)
in total volumes to 487,545 units, which was slightly lower than our expectations.
Total volumes continue to be impacted by the slowdown in motorcycle demand
and higher competition from Honda. Going ahead, the company is hopeful that
better monsoons coupled with improving consumer sentiments will revive the
growth.

Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) registered an in-line volume growth of 1.3% yoy (down 1.4%
mom) to 83,299 units. The volume growth was led by a healthy growth of 5.8%
yoy (down 2.4% mom) in the domestic markets. Exports however, continued its
poor run and witnessed a significant decline of 27.3% yoy (up 9.4% mom on a low
base) due to macroeconomic uncertainty in the key export markets. While the sales
in the Mini segment surged 15.8% yoy (7.3% mom) led by the gradual uptick in
demand for petrol cars, the super compact segment registered a strong growth of
33.6% yoy (21.5% mom) despite the competition from Amaze. However the
compact and utility vehicle segments posted an 11.9% (33.9% mom) and 37.5%
yoy (8.7% mom) decline in volumes respectively.

Mahindra and Mahindra


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) reported weak volumes primarily due to the poor
performance of the automotive segment which has been impacted due to demand
slowdown, rising competition and also due to the increase in excise duty. However,
tractor segment registered a strong growth of 11.8% yoy driven by 14.7% yoy
growth in domestic volumes. The domestic volumes have witnessed a strong
growth YTD in FY20214 led by expectations of normal monsoon and improved
prospects for kharif crop. Total volumes declined sharply by 12.6% yoy (15.6%
mom) to 83,299 units as automotive segment fell by a significant 21.2% yoy (2.6%
mom). The automotive segment registered poor performance across the subsegments with the passenger vehicle sales (down 29.4% yoy and 9.9% mom) being
the worst impacted. The four-wheeler pick-up and the three-wheeler sales too
witnessed a decline of 6.5% and 12.8% yoy respectively. Automotive export
volumes plunged 38.8% during the month. Meanwhile, the production cuts
announced by the company at the automotive plants in July will continue in August
as well.

Tata Motors
Tata Motors (TTMT) continued reporting disappointing sales performance as the
domestic commercial (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) segments maintained its

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Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

downwards trajectory. Total volumes posted a significant decline of 30% yoy (2.4%
mom) to 51,468 units with CV and PV segments registering a sharp decline of
14.2% and 58.8% yoy respectively. Within the CV space, domestic medium and
heavy and light commercial vehicle segments witnessed a decline of 23.7% and
10.1% yoy respectively. While in the PV segment, utility vehicle and passenger cars
witnessed a decline of 55.2% and 59.6% yoy respectively. Exports too registered a
decline of 12% yoy during the month.

TVS Motor
TVS Motor (TVSL) reported lower-than-expected volumes as total volumes
registered a decline of 4.7% yoy (6.4% mom) to 153,676 units. The company
continued its sluggish performance in the two-wheeler segment (down 7.1% yoy
and 6.8% mom) on account of poor demand and increased competitive activity in
the motorcycle (down 1.9% mom) and scooter (down 9.8% mom) segments. The
three-wheeler sales on the other hand continued its strong momentum and posted
a growth of 112.2% yoy (3.4% mom) driven by exports. The overall exports
registered a strong growth of 36.6% yoy (6.8% mom) during the month.

Lupin receives USFDA nod for Ranexa Extendedrelease tablets


Lupin announced that its U.S. subsidiary, Lupin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (LPI) received
final approval for its Ranolazine Extendedrelease tablets, 500 mg and 1000 mg
from the United States Food and Drugs Administration (FDA). Lupins Ranolazine
Extendedrelease tablets are the ABrated generic equivalent of Gilead Sciences,
Inc.s (Gilead) Ranexa Extendedrelease tablets, 500 mg and 1000 mg strengths.
Ranolazine Extendedrelease tablets are indicated for treatment of chronic angina.
Ranexa tablets, 500 mg and 1000 mg had U.S sales of approximately
US$443.4mn, for the twelve months ending March, 2013 (IMS Health data).Lupin
believes that it is the first applicant to file an ANDA for Ranexa Extendedrelease
tablets 500 mg and 1000 mg strengths and as such will be entitled to 180 days of
marketing exclusivity. The product is expected to contribute around US $30-40mn
to its full year revenues. We maintain our neutral stance on the stock.

Result Review
Idea Cellular (CMP: `167/ TP: Under review)
For 1QFY2014, Idea Cellular (Idea) reported strong set of results, beating our as
well as market expectations on all fronts. Ideas consolidated revenue came in at
`6,539cr, up 7.9% qoq. The mobility segments revenue increased strongly by
8.3% qoq to `6,447cr, riding on healthy customer additions and greater pricing
power after the exit of several smaller competitors from the market. The companys
revenue growth was led by 6.1% qoq increase in realization per minute (RPM) to
~`0.44, aided by reduction in promotional vouchers. Network traffic grew by
2.8% qoq to 147bn min. MOU declined by 2.0% to 398min which came in as a
negative surprise. Ideas subscriber base increased by 3.4mn subscribers during
the quarter with the end of period (EoP) subscriber base standing at 125mn. The
company increased share of VAS revenues to 16.0% from 15.2% in 4QFY2013.
The data volume growth grew by 92.2% yoy to 13.8bn Megabytes usages in

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Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

1QFY2014. The data as a % of service revenue improved by 2.7% in one year;


mobile data now contributes 7.2% to service revenue.
Ideas EBITDA margin increased substantially by ~410bp qoq to 31.8%. The
EBITDA margin increase was led by strong revenue growth along with reduction in
subscriber acquisition & marketing cost which has fallen by ~9.4% qoq in
1QFY2014 vs. 4QFY2013. Depreciation charges increased by ~25% qoq to
`1135cr because life of some fixed assets have been revised from 13 years to 10
years. This change resulted in a higher depreciation of ~`180cr in this quarter;
total impact of this change for the entire FY2014 is expected to be ~`450cr. PAT
came in at `463cr, up 50% qoq, led by strong operational performance and qoq
lower tax rate at 36% as against 43% in 4QFY2013.
Ideas 1QFY2014 results underscore declining competitive intensity which should
support strong EBITDA growth for Indian wireless incumbents. Most operators,
including Idea, have been rationalizing pre-paid tariffs as RPM and profitability
improvement remains a key focus area across the industry. With improving
operational performance, the company still remains surrounded by regulatory
uncertainties with regards one-time spectrum fee, 3G roaming pacts cancellations
and spectrum refarming. The stock is currently under review.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

(%)

PAT
(` cr)

EPS ROE
(`)

(%)

P/E P/BV
(x)

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

25,640 26.9

1,322

4.0

8.4 41.8

3.5

9.7

2.6

FY2015E

28,459 27.2

1,632

4.9

9.4 33.8

3.2

8.3

2.3

Reliance Communication (CMP: `131/ TP: Under review)


For 1QFY2014, Reliance Communication (RCom) results came in marginally
below expectations on all fronts. The company registered top-line (including other
income) of `5,315, down ~1.5% qoq. Revenues from wireless business came in at
`4,816cr, up 4% qoq. In tandem with its peer companies, RCom also reported
increase in realization rate per minute (RPM) by 4% qoq to 45.7paise, aided by
tariff hikes and strong focus on paid and profitable minutes. EBITDA margin came
in at 30.2%, down ~70bp qoq. PAT came in at `108cr, down ~65% qoq, as
RCom last quarter had one time gain of `550cr (provision reversal). The stock is
currently under review.
Y/E
March

Sales OPM
(` cr)

PAT

EPS ROE
(%)

P/E P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

22,751 30.9

707

3.4

2.1 38.3

0.8

9.0

2.8

FY2015E

24,628 31.3

1,086

5.3

3.1 25.0

0.8

7.8

2.4

Bank of Baroda - (CMP: `516 / TP: -- / Upside: - -)


Bank of Baroda reported moderate operating performance for the quarter,
however, asset quality performance was weak. NII for the bank expectedly grew by
3.3% yoy. Non-interest income grew strongly by 60% yoy, probably aided by
treasury gains. Overall, pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew at moderate
pace of 9% yoy, which was on expected lines. The bank witnessed significant asset
quality deterioration during the quarter, as Gross and Net NPA levels increased
sequentially by 22% and 30%, respectively. The provisioning expenses for the bank
grew by 14% yoy and hence, the bottom-line grew by marginal 3% yoy. Given the
recent macro developments in an overall weak environment, we believe that asset

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Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

quality pressures are unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier. Hence,
we recommend a Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

16,287

2.2

5,095

120.6 834.7

0.9

15.0

4.3

0.6

FY2015E

18,707

2.3

6,111

144.6 951.3

0.9

16.0

3.6

0.5

March

GSK Consumer (CMP:`4,598/TP:-/Upside:-)


For 2QCY2013 Glaxo Consumers performance was below expectations on
bottom-line front. The top-line rose by 16.9% yoy to `852cr aided by both higher
volumes and better realizations. The price hikes undertaken by the company in
past one year resulted in better realizations. However, OPM fell by 126bp yoy to
13.9% due to increase in advertising and other expenses as a percentage of sales.
Other income rose by 32.7% yoy to `76cr. Bottom-line rose by 12.5% yoy to
`120cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

Dec

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

CY2013E

3,617

16.1

514122.2

34.1

37.6

11.7

30.4

4.9

CY2014E

4,259

16.4

625148.7

33.7

30.9

9.4

24.7

4.1

Tata Global (CMP:`147/TP:-/Upside:-)


For 1QFY2014 Tata Globals performance was below expectations on Top-line,
margins, and bottom-line front. The company posted a 4.7% yoy improvement in
its consolidated net sales to `1,796cr, aided by a 7% yoy growth in the top-line of
Tea Business. However, coffee business posted a marginal de-growth in net sales
to `469cr. On the operating front consolidated OPM rose 94bp yoy to 10.6%.
While the profits of tea business rose 8% yoy, the coffee business posted a 34% yoy
increase in its profit despite lower sales. The companys adjusted PAT came in
below estimates at `91cr (vs. `83cr in 1QFY2013). We maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/sales

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

8,069

9.8

467

7.6

9.3

19.5

1.8

11.3

1.1

FY2015E

8,957

9.7

514

8.3

9.5

17.7

1.7

10.1

1.0

Union Bank - (CMP: `126 / TP: -/ Upside:- )


Union bank reported modest operating performance for the quarter. NII for the
bank grew by 4.8% yoy. Non-interest income grew strongly by 54.0% yoy,
probably boosted by treasury gains. Overall, pre-provisioning profit for the bank
grew by 11.4% yoy. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed significant asset
quality stress during the quarter, as Gross and Net NPA levels increased
sequentially by around 12.3% and 15.8% respectively. Bank increased Provisioning
expenses by 31.5%, thus limiting in bottom-line growth of 9.5% yoy. Considering
recent macro developments in a weak economic environment, we believe that
asset quality stress is unlikely to abate as quickly as was anticipated earlier..
Hence, we maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

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Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

11,101

2.6

2,355

39.3 283.6

0.7

14.1

3.2

0.4

FY2015E

12,543

2.6

2,837

47.4 324.3

0.7

15.2

2.7

0.4

March

JK Bank- (CMP: `1,102 / TP: - / Upside: -)


J&K Bank reported healthy operating performance for the quarter. NII for the bank
grew 22.3% yoy. Non-interest income marginally declined by 1.2% yoy. Overall,
pre-provisioning profit for the bank grew by 15.9% yoy. On the asset quality front,
the bank reported moderate performance, as Gross and Net NPA levels increased
sequentially by 3.4% and 1.5% respectively. Provisioning expenses declined by
28.1% yoy. Overall, bottom-line grew at a healthy pace of 25.1% yoy. At CMP, the
stock is trading at 0.8x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Neutral recommendation
on the stock.
Y/E
March

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

(`)

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

3,101

3.6

1,045

215.51,167.6

1.4

19.9

5.1

0.9

FY2015E

3,427

3.6

1,019

210.21,314.9

1.2

16.8

5.2

0.8

Ceat (CMP: `118/ TP: `170/ Upside: 43%)


Ceat reported extremely strong results for 1QFY2014 which were better than our
expectations driven by significant expansion (up 115bp sequentially to 11.8%) in
operating margins.
For 1QFY2014, standalone top-line reported a better-than-expected growth of
7.8% yoy to `1,280cr despite the sluggish demand environment in the domestic
markets. The top-line was driven by a strong volume growth of 10.7% led by a
volume growth of 28.2% yoy in the OEM segment on the back of the new
partnerships with Royal Enfield, Volvo-Eicher and Bajaj Auto. Export volumes too
registered a strong growth of 10.7% yoy; however, replacement segment grew
modestly by 5.2% yoy during the quarter. Net average realization declined by
2.7% yoy on account of adverse product-mix (higher OEM share) and also due to
price cuts undertaken during the quarter. Operating profit, however, surged 43.5%
yoy (8.2% qoq) to `151cr driven by 293bp yoy expansion in operating margins led
by 12.5% yoy decline in natural rubber prices. The raw-material expense as a
percentage of sales fell 570bp yoy (187bp qoq) during the quarter. Nevertheless,
other expenditure witnessed a sharp jump of 27.5% yoy (5.7% qoq), probably due
to increased marketing spends, which arrested further margin expansion in our
view. Led by strong operating performance, net profit increased 126.8% yoy to
`58cr ahead of our expectation of `38cr. On a sequential though, it declined by
4.1% primarily due to higher tax outgo. Tax rate stood at 33.1% as against 22.4%
sequentially.
We retain our positive view on Ceat and believe that the company will continue to
benefit from the softening of commodity prices. However a slowdown in demand
remains a concern as the replacement demand has not picked up as anticipated.
Nonetheless, at `118, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 2.4x FY2015E
earnings. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `170.

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Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Y/E
March

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV

EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

5,325

8.4

140

40.8

17.3

2.9

0.5

2.2

0.2

FY2015E

5,974

8.3

166

48.5

17.6

2.4

0.4

1.8

0.1

Result Preview
Coal India (CMP: `270, TP: `345, Upside: 28%)
Coal India is slated to report its 1QFY2014 results on Saturday. We expect net
sales to increase by 7.4% yoy to `17,719cr mainly on account of higher volumes
and EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 280bp yoy to 32.7% due to higher
costs. Net profit is expected to increase by 1.5% yoy to `4,524cr. We maintain our
Buy view on the stock with a target price of `345.
Y/E

Sales

OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

March

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BVEV/EBITDAEV/Sales
(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E 74,110

31.1 17,550

27.8

36.1

9.7

2.6

4.1

1.3

FY2015E 76,377

30.2 17,434

27.6

32.6

9.8

2.2

3.7

1.1

BHEL (CMP: `151/ TP: -/Upside: %)


BHEL is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results on Saturday. Top-line is expected
to decline by 3.0% yoy to `8,186cr in 1QFY2014. On the EBITDA front, the
company's margin is likely to expand by 25bp yoy to 14.5%. Consequently, PAT is
expected to decline by 12.7% yoy to `804cr. We maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock as we expect tepid order inflow to continue for the
next few quarters.
Y/E

Sales OPM

March

(` cr)

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

P/BV EV/EBITDA
(x)

(x)

EV/Sales
(x)

FY2014E

44,054 16.8

5,043

20.6

23.5

7.5

1.6

4.3

0.7

FY2015E

39,326 15.1

3,936

16.1

16.1

9.6

1.5

5.1

0.8

Canara Bank - (CMP: `258 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Canara Bank is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results tomorrow. We expect
the bank to report healthy NII growth of 14.8% yoy to `2,116cr. Non-interest
income is expected to grow by 31.9% to `914cr, aided primarily by trading gains.
Operating expenses are expected to grow by 13.7% yoy to `1,299cr, which would
result in healthy operating profit growth of 24.2% yoy at `1,730cr. On back of
70.8% yoy higher provisioning at `715cr, we expect the bank to report earnings
de-growth of 3.1% yoy to `751cr. Given the recent macro developments amidst an
overall weak macro-economic environment, we believe that the asset quality
pressures for the banking are unlikely to abate as quickly as was expected earlier.
Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector. Hence, we maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
Y/E
March

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Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

(`)

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

12,045

2.1

3,400

76.7 534.8

0.8

14.1

3.6

0.5

FY2015E

13,495

2.2

3,826

86.4 603.8

0.8

14.2

3.2

0.4

Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Oriental Bank of Commerce (CMP: `144 / TP:155/ Upside: 8.3%)


Oriental Bank of Commerce is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results
tomorrow. We expect the bank to report moderate growth of 10.7% yoy in Net
Interest Income (NII) to `1,247cr. Non-interest income is expected to decline by
19.0% yoy to `331cr. Operating expenses are expected to increase by 7.0% yoy to
`683cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 37.4% yoy to `456cr.
Hence Net profit is expected to de-grow by 17.0% to `325cr. At the CMP, the stock
is trading at 0.3x FY2015E ABV. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on
the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

6,790

2.6

1,625

55.7 429.8

0.8

12.8

2.6

0.3

FY2015E

7,676

2.7

1,817

62.3 478.0

0.8

12.9

2.3

0.3

March

Bank of Maharashtra- (CMP: `42 / TP: - / Upside: -)


Bank of Maharashtra is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We
expect the bank to report a healthy NII growth of 32.7% yoy to `864cr. Noninterest income is expected to de-grow by 6.4% yoy to `167cr. Operating expenses
are expected to increase by 21.9% yoy to `475cr, while provisioning expenses are
expected to decrease by 22.9% yoy to `243cr on account of high base in
1QFY2013. Overall, the bank is expected to report strong earnings growth of
47.1% yoy to `207cr. At CMP, the stock is trading at 0.5x FY2015E ABV. We
maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Y/E

Op. Inc

NIM

PAT

EPS

ABV

ROA

ROE

P/E

P/ABV

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

4,291

3.0

856

12.1

80.0

0.7

16.2

3.5

0.5

FY2015E

4,724

3.0

908

12.9

89.9

0.6

15.3

3.2

0.5

March

KEC International (CMP: `27/ TP: `40/Upside: 47%)


For 1QFY2014, KEC International (KEC) is expected to register a healthy top-line
growth of 11.6% yoy to `1,522cr on back of strong execution of its robust order
book. However, on the EBITDA front, the company's margin is expected to contract
by ~227bp yoy to 5.3% on account of execution of few low margin orders in
relatively new segments. Consequently, we expect PAT to decline sharply to `11cr
on account of margin pressure and elevated interest costs. We recommend Buy on
the stock with a target price of `40.
Y/E
March

www.angelbroking.com

Sales OPM

PAT

EPS

ROE

P/E

P/BV EV/EBITDA

EV/Sales

(` cr)

(%)

(` cr)

(`)

(%)

(x)

(x)

(x)

(x)

FY2014E

7,709

6.7

156

6.1

20.2

4.6

0.6

4.1

0.3

FY2015E

8,399

7.2

219

8.5

23.0

3.3

0.5

3.4

0.2

Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate


Power Finance Corporation (02/08/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,256

972

29.2

1,294

(2.9)

3QSY13E

3QSY12

y-o-y (%)

2QSY13

q-o-q (%)

2,908

(1.2)

88

98.4

Siemens India (02/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales

2,875

2,976

(3.4)

EBITDA

175

118

48.0

EBITDA margin (%)

6.1

4.0

Net profit

84

36

133.5

30

180.2

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

7,992

8,326

(4.0)

18,850

(57.6)

EBITDA

(32.8)

4,651

(77.3)

3.0

BHEL (03/08/2013)
Particulars (` cr)

1,056

1,571

EBITDA margin (%)

13.2

18.9

Net profit

780

921

(15.3)

3,238

(75.9)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

798

775

3.0

725

10.1

24.7

Canara Bank (03/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net profit

Coal India Consolidated (03/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

17,044

16,500

3.3

19,905

(14.4)

4,405

4,815

(8.5)

7,490

(41.2)

25.8

29.2

4,236

4,469

(5.2)

5,414

(21.8)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

543

468

16.0

650

(16.5)

EBITDA

204

192

6.3

252

(19.0)

EBITDA margin (%)

37.6

41.0

Net profit

153

167

Net profit

37.6

Divi's Laboratories (03/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

38.8
(8.4)

182

(15.9)

Godrej Consumers Consolidated (03/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

1,736

1,388

25.1

1,716

1.2

EBITDA

260

199

30.7

279

(6.8)

EBITDA margin (%)

15.0

14.3

Net profit

173

130

Net sales

www.angelbroking.com

16.3
33.1

334

(48.2)

Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Grasim Industries Consolidated (03/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

6,652

6,793

(2.1)

7,553

(11.9)

EBITDA

1,296

1,767

(26.7)

1,990

(34.9)

EBITDA margin (%)

19.5

26.0

Net profit

560

718

26.3
(22.0)

818

(31.5)

Tata Chemical Consolidated (05/08/2013)


Particulars (` cr)

1QFY14E

1QFY13

y-o-y (%)

4QFY13

q-o-q (%)

Net sales

3,164

3,021

4.7

3,362

(5.9)

EBITDA

516

495

4.2

471

9.6

EBITDA margin (%)

16.3

16.4

Net profit

174

108

14.0
61.1

(188)

(192.6)

Economic and Political News

States should bear power subsidy burden: Scindia


Infra sectors grow at snail's pace in June, may impact IIP
Manufacturing growth almost stagnant in July
Govt may go ahead with 5% stake sale in CIL this month: Coal Min
Planning Commission may call separate NDC on coal linkage problem

Corporate News

Life insurers want service tax to be back at 1.5%


Claris Life completes transfer of infusion business to JV
Tea production up by 4% in June on higher output from WB
M&M to stop production for up to 6 days in forthcoming months
Centre keen to set up textile park in Nagpur: Rao
'Mandatory recall' to levy strict penalties on auto makers
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013
Result Calendar
Date

Company

August 02, 2013

Siemens, Power Fin.Corpn., Sun TV Network, Suzlon Energy, Bank of Maharashtra


Coal India, BHEL, Grasim Inds, Canara Bank, Godrej Consumer, Divi's Lab., Oriental Bank, PTC India, Godawari
Ispat

August 03, 2013


August 04, 2013
August 05, 2013

Tata Chemicals, LMW, Graphite India, GIPCL, SpiceJet

August 06, 2013

August 08, 2013

Tata Power Co., Bosch India, Crompton Greaves, Unitech


NMDC, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy, Lupin, GSK Pharma, Cadila Healthcare, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Nagarjuna Const.,
Alembic Pharma
Adani Enterp., Rural Elec.Corp., Bharat Forge, IRB Infra, ITNL, Page Industries, Prakash Industries, ITD Cementation

August 09, 2013

Sun Pharma, ABB, Aurobindo Pharma, TVS Motor, Finolex Cables, Goodyear

August 10, 2013

Sarda Energy

August 07, 2013

August 11, 2013


August 12, 2013

ONGC, HPCL, Marico, Indraprasth Gas, Britannia, India Cements, Jyothy Laboratories

August 13, 2013

IOC, M&M, Tata Steel, Hindalco, BPCL, GMR Infra., GSPL

August 14, 2013

SAIL, Nalco, LIC Housing Fin., Amara Raja Batteries, Simplex Infra

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar


Date

Time

Country Event Description

Unit

Period

Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated

August 2, 2013

6:00PM

US

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

6:00PM

US

Unnemployment rate

August 5, 2013

1:25PM

Germany PMI Services

August 6, 2013

2:00PM

UK

Industrial Production (YoY)

August 8, 2013

4:29PM

China

Exports YoY%

August 9, 2013

Thousands

Jul

195.00

185.00

Jul

7.60

7.50

Value

Jul F

52.50

--

% Change

Jun

(2.30)

--

% Change

Jul

(3.10)

1.00

7:00AM

China

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

% Change

Jul

2.70

2.80

11:00AM

China

Industrial Production (YoY)

% Change

Jul

8.90

8.90

4:29PM

India

Imports YoY%

% Change

Jul

(0.37)

--

4:29PM

India

Exports YoY%

% Change

Jul

(4.60)

--

5:30PM

India

Industrial Production YoY

% Change

Jun

(1.60)

--

August 13, 2013

2:00PM

UK

CPI (YoY)

% Change

Jul

2.90

--

August 14, 2013

2:00PM

UK

Jobless claims change

% Change

Jul

(21.20)

--

11:30AM

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

% Change

2Q P

(1.40)

--

12:00PM

India

% Change

Jul

4.86

--

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

% Change

2Q A

(0.30)

--

6:00PM

US

Producer Price Index (mom)

% Change

Jul

0.80

--

6:00PM

US

Consumer price index (mom)

% Change

Jul

0.50

--

6:45PM

US

Industrial Production

Jul

0.31

--

6:00PM

US

Housing Starts

Thousands

Jul

836.00

--

6:00PM

US

Building permits

Thousands

Jul

918.00

--

2:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Jul F

1.60

--

August 21, 2013

7:30PM

US

August 23, 2013

7:30PM

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

7:30PM

US

New home sales

2:00PM

UK

GDP (YoY)

August 12, 2013

August 15, 2013


August 16, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Existing home sales

Million

Jul

5.08

--

Value

Aug A

(17.40)

--

Thousands

Jul

497.00

--

% Change

2Q P

1.40

--

Market Outlook
August 2, 2013

Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)

(%)
10.0

11.4
9.2

6.0
4.0

0.6

Apr-13

Feb-13

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

(%)

Mfg. PMI

58.0
8.0

(1.6)

Jan-13

Jun-12

4QFY13

3QFY13

2QFY13

1QFY13

4QFY12

3QFY12

2QFY12

1QFY12

4QFY11

3QFY11

2QFY11

1QFY11

4QFY10

3QFY10

(4.0)

(1.0) (0.6)

(0.7)

(2.0)

May-13

(0.1)

(2.0)

Dec-12

4.7 4.8

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Services PMI

8.1
7.3

8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.3

56.0
5.7
4.8

4.7

4.9

54.0
52.0

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

Jun-12

May-12

Apr-12

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


(%)

48.0

Mar-12

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

50.0

Oct-12

9.0

1.9

2.0

5.1 5.4 5.2

Nov-12

6.0

3.4

2.5

2.0

Oct-12

6.5

Mar-13

7.5

Sep-12

7.7

Aug-12

8.6

8.4

8.0

9.9

Jul-12

9.5

9.3

2QFY10

12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

Exports yoy growth

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates


Repo rate

(%)
9.00

Imports yoy growth

15.0

Reverse Repo rate

CRR

8.00
7.00
6.00

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

0.0

5.00
4.00

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

www.angelbroking.com

Source: RBI, Angel Research

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Mar-13

Feb-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Oct-12

Sep-12

(15.0)

Aug-12

3.00

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Agri / Agri Chemical


Rallis

Neutral

136

2,636

1,674

1,923

13.7

13.7

6.8

7.6

19.9

17.8

3.7

3.3

20.0

19.6

1.7

1.5

United Phosphorus

Buy

125

225

5,524

10,091

11,302

16.5

16.5

19.2

22.5

6.5

5.6

1.0

0.9

17.0

17.2

0.7

0.5

Amara Raja Batteries

Buy

239

285

4,082

3,418

3,892

14.5

14.5

18.5

20.4

12.9

11.7

3.1

2.5

26.6

23.8

1.2

1.0

Apollo Tyres

Neutral

65

3,271

13,852

15,487

11.4

11.5

12.8

14.9

5.1

4.4

0.8

0.7

17.5

17.3

0.4

0.3

Ashok Leyland

Buy

13

22

3,390

13,450

15,853

6.5

8.5

0.4

1.9

33.3

6.8

1.1

1.0

2.3

11.0

0.4

0.3

Automotive Axle#

Neutral

215

325

834

965

9.3

10.6

17.3

27.1

12.4

7.9

1.2

1.1

9.5

14.0

0.5

0.4

Bajaj Auto

Accumulate

1,933

2,102

55,930

21,696

25,239

19.2

19.3

119.3

140.2

16.2

13.8

5.7

4.5

38.9

36.6

2.2

1.8

Bharat Forge

Neutral

196

4,562

6,198

6,793

14.6

14.9

14.5

17.3

13.5

11.3

1.8

1.6

13.6

14.7

0.8

0.7

Bosch India*

Neutral

8,810

27,662

9,821

11,394

17.0

17.3

373.5

438.7

23.6

20.1

4.2

3.6

18.0

17.9

2.5

2.1

CEAT

Buy

118

170

405

5,325

5,974

8.4

8.3

40.8

48.5

2.9

2.4

0.5

0.4

17.3

17.6

0.2

0.2

Exide Industries

Buy

121

148

10,306

6,899

7,873

14.7

14.7

7.9

9.0

15.3

13.4

2.6

2.3

18.3

18.0

1.2

1.0

FAG Bearings*

Neutral

1,260

2,094

1,336

1,572

13.8

16.0

75.6

102.4

16.7

12.3

2.1

1.8

13.4

15.8

1.3

1.1

Hero Motocorp

Accumulate

1,811

2,048

36,160

25,562

28,297

14.5

14.4

111.2

146.3

16.3

12.4

6.0

4.6

40.1

42.1

1.2

1.0

JK Tyre

Buy

91

154

374

7,972

8,754

7.1

7.1

37.5

44.0

2.4

2.1

0.4

0.3

16.4

16.6

0.3

0.3

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy

872

1,103

53,694

45,254

51,197

11.4

11.7

61.2

70.2

14.3

12.4

3.0

2.5

22.7

21.9

0.9

0.8

Maruti

Buy

1,340

1,648

40,482

45,862

52,647

11.2

11.1

94.6

109.9

14.2

12.2

1.9

1.7

14.4

14.6

0.7

0.6

Motherson Sumi

Buy

204

242

12,016

28,442

31,914

8.4

8.7

13.0

16.1

15.7

12.7

4.1

3.2

29.4

28.6

0.5

0.5

Subros

Buy

19

23

116

1,230

1,398

10.5

10.5

2.3

3.8

8.3

5.1

0.4

0.4

4.8

7.6

0.3

0.3

Tata Motors

Buy

289

347

77,899 215,016 237,404

13.3

13.6

36.2

41.5

8.0

7.0

1.8

1.5

24.6

23.2

0.4

0.4

TVS Motor

Accumulate

31

35

1,456

7,715

8,584

6.0

6.1

5.0

5.8

6.2

5.3

1.1

0.9

18.1

18.5

0.1

0.1

Capital Goods
ABB*

Reduce

492

461

10,435

8,073

9,052

5.5

6.9

11.5

16.9

42.7

29.1

3.9

3.7

9.3

13.1

1.3

1.1

BGR Energy

Neutral

80

575

3,756

4,569

11.4

9.7

21.7

24.1

3.7

3.3

0.4

0.4

22.3

20.3

0.5

0.4

BHEL

Neutral

151

36,873

44,054

39,326

16.8

15.1

20.6

16.1

7.3

9.4

1.6

1.4

23.5

16.1

0.7

0.8

Blue Star

Buy

150

208

1,349

2,941

3,099

3.4

4.2

6.0

9.3

25.1

16.2

3.1

2.7

12.9

18.0

0.6

0.5

Crompton Greaves

Buy

83

117

5,331

13,446

15,272

6.7

7.6

6.6

8.9

12.5

9.4

1.4

1.3

11.4

14.0

0.5

0.5

Jyoti Structures

Neutral

16

131

3,312

3,555

9.0

9.0

4.5

6.5

3.5

2.5

0.2

0.2

5.6

7.7

0.3

0.3

KEC International

Buy

27

40

701

7,709

8,399

6.7

7.2

6.1

8.5

4.5

3.2

0.6

0.5

20.2

23.0

0.3

0.2

Thermax

Neutral

588

7,009

5,832

6,397

9.1

9.6

28.8

32.9

20.4

17.9

3.3

2.9

17.2

17.3

1.2

1.0

1,148

1,361

21,557

11,820

13,254

19.3

20.9

74.9

93.1

15.3

12.3

2.7

2.4

18.1

20.3

1.5

1.3

Cement
ACC

Buy

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Cement
Ambuja Cements

Neutral

167

25,858

10,171

11,762

23.5

24.6

10.2

12.2

16.4

13.7

2.7

2.5

17.1

18.7

2.0

1.6

India Cements

Neutral

49

1,507

4,929

5,434

17.4

17.1

8.9

10.9

5.5

4.5

0.4

0.4

7.7

9.1

0.7

0.6

J K Lakshmi Cement

Buy

57

100

672

2,256

2,709

20.2

22.2

17.0

20.4

3.4

2.8

0.5

0.4

14.8

15.4

0.3

0.8

Madras Cements

Neutral

155

3,691

4,234

4,788

23.9

24.0

18.5

22.8

8.4

6.8

1.3

1.2

17.2

18.2

1.2

1.0

Shree Cement^

Neutral

4,280

14,909

6,607

7,520

27.5

26.7

322.8

374.3

13.3

11.4

3.3

2.6

27.8

25.6

1.6

1.2

UltraTech Cement

Neutral

1,818

49,860

21,947

25,049

23.8

23.8

106.1

119.8

17.1

15.2

2.8

2.5

17.7

17.3

2.3

2.0

50

84

792

1,928

2,234

21.0

21.5

6.0

7.4

8.4

6.8

0.8

0.7

10.5

10.8

1.8

1.8

140

1,715

1,824

2.4

6.2

(2.9)

(0.4)

(2.6)

(21.1)

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

Construction
Ashoka Buildcon

Buy

Consolidated Co

Neutral

IRB Infra

Buy

54

157

1,800

3,997

4,312

45.5

46.4

15.7

16.6

3.5

3.3

0.5

0.5

15.2

14.5

2.9

3.2

ITNL

Buy

113

230

2,186

7,444

8,041

27.4

28.9

29.8

32.1

3.8

3.5

0.5

0.5

14.9

14.2

2.4

2.4

IVRCL Infra

Buy

11

29

350

5,673

5,892

8.1

8.4

1.4

1.8

7.9

6.2

0.2

0.2

2.0

2.6

0.5

0.5

Jaiprakash Asso.

Buy

32

53

7,201

12,946

14,897

24.7

25.6

1.2

2.7

26.4

12.1

0.5

0.5

2.0

4.3

2.4

2.2

Larsen & Toubro

Buy

844

1,128

78,088

68,946

78,040

10.0

10.0

49.0

55.2

17.2

15.3

2.5

2.2

14.9

15.3

1.3

1.1

Nagarjuna Const.

Buy

21

42

544

6,167

6,945

8.0

8.2

2.7

3.6

7.9

5.8

0.2

0.2

2.7

3.6

0.4

0.4

Punj Lloyd

Neutral

24

780

12,954

14,740

9.9

9.9

0.5

0.9

46.3

25.2

0.3

0.3

0.6

1.1

0.5

0.5

Sadbhav Engg.

Buy

70

139

1,059

2,462

2,731

10.6

10.6

5.9

6.7

11.9

10.5

1.2

1.1

10.2

10.5

0.7

0.7

Simplex Infra

Buy

58

131

284

6,308

7,033

9.5

9.6

11.9

18.7

4.8

3.1

0.2

0.2

4.5

6.7

0.5

0.5

Unity Infra

Neutral

18

136

2,146

2,339

13.7

13.8

11.0

11.5

1.7

1.6

0.2

0.1

9.3

9.0

0.6

0.6

Allahabad Bank

Neutral

69

3,435

6,705

7,535

2.5

2.5

27.6

33.2

2.5

2.1

0.4

0.3

12.5

13.6

Andhra Bank

Neutral

60

3,338

5,180

5,815

2.7

2.7

19.0

22.9

3.1

2.6

0.4

0.4

12.0

13.2

Axis Bank

Buy

1,085

1,348

50,873

19,280

22,886

3.3

3.3

130.7

157.1

8.3

6.9

1.3

1.2

17.3

18.1

Bank of Baroda

Neutral

516

21,743

16,287

18,707

2.2

2.3

120.6

144.6

4.3

3.6

0.6

0.5

15.0

16.0

Bank of India

Neutral

179

10,643

14,482

16,069

2.3

2.2

55.0

62.2

3.3

2.9

0.5

0.4

13.7

13.9

Bank of Maharashtra

Neutral

42

2,762

4,291

4,724

3.0

3.0

12.1

12.9

3.5

3.3

0.5

0.5

16.2

15.3

Canara Bank

Neutral

258

11,423

12,045

13,495

2.1

2.2

76.7

86.4

3.4

3.0

0.5

0.4

14.1

14.2

Central Bank

Neutral

57

5,970

8,196

9,202

2.4

2.4

6.1

15.9

9.4

3.6

0.7

0.6

5.2

12.8

Corporation Bank

Neutral

281

4,294

5,554

6,156

2.0

2.0

94.9

104.9

3.0

2.7

0.4

0.4

14.3

14.2

Dena Bank

Neutral

49

1,731

3,255

3,623

2.3

2.4

22.0

24.9

2.2

2.0

0.3

0.3

14.7

14.7

Federal Bank

Neutral

347

5,934

2,798

3,250

3.0

3.0

38.1

51.9

9.1

6.7

0.9

0.8

9.8

12.3

Financials

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Financials
HDFC

Accumulate

817

867

126,956

8,679

10,350

3.6

3.6

37.5

44.7

21.8

18.3

4.5

4.1

30.1

30.7

HDFC Bank

Buy

632

745

151,031

27,392

33,264

4.6

4.6

36.3

45.1

17.4

14.0

3.5

3.0

21.9

22.8

ICICI Bank

Buy

913

1,131

105,377

26,119

30,474

3.1

3.2

86.2

99.5

10.6

9.2

1.4

1.3

15.7

16.2

IDBI Bank

Neutral

62

8,283

9,518

10,468

2.0

2.0

15.5

22.1

4.0

2.8

0.4

0.4

10.2

13.3

Indian Bank

Neutral

76

3,277

6,077

6,845

2.9

3.0

35.2

41.0

2.2

1.9

0.3

0.3

14.1

14.8

IOB

Neutral

41

3,747

7,709

8,645

2.2

2.3

8.2

17.1

4.9

2.4

0.3

0.3

6.0

11.7

J & K Bank

Neutral

1,102

5,343

3,101

3,427

3.6

3.6

215.5

210.3

5.1

5.2

0.9

0.8

19.9

16.9

LIC Housing Finance

Neutral

168

8,488

2,180

2,732

2.4

2.5

26.3

32.1

6.4

5.2

1.2

1.0

19.0

19.9

Oriental Bank

Neutral

144

4,187

6,790

7,676

2.6

2.7

55.7

62.3

2.6

2.3

0.3

0.3

12.8

12.9

Punjab Natl.Bank

Neutral

544

19,225

20,766

23,515

3.4

3.4

135.0

164.8

4.0

3.3

0.6

0.5

14.4

15.7

South Ind.Bank

Neutral

St Bk of India

Buy

Syndicate Bank

21

2,841

1,800

2,023

2.7

2.7

3.7

4.2

5.7

5.1

0.9

0.8

16.2

16.2

1,683

1,979

115,154

66,417

76,734

3.0

3.0

227.4

284.8

7.4

5.9

1.1

0.9

15.4

17.1

Neutral

83

5,014

7,125

8,188

2.6

2.6

27.4

27.9

3.0

3.0

0.5

0.4

16.2

14.6

UCO Bank

Neutral

59

4,422

6,736

6,979

2.7

2.6

15.3

15.7

3.8

3.7

0.7

0.6

14.8

13.6

Union Bank

Neutral

126

7,540

11,101

12,543

2.6

2.6

39.3

47.4

3.2

2.7

0.5

0.4

14.1

15.2

United Bank

Neutral

34

1,291

3,386

3,884

2.3

2.5

12.4

20.0

2.8

1.7

0.3

0.3

10.0

14.7

Vijaya Bank

Neutral

39

1,918

2,714

3,046

1.9

2.0

9.2

10.8

4.2

3.6

0.5

0.4

10.7

11.5

Yes Bank

Neutral

328

11,786

4,417

5,486

2.7

2.8

42.9

49.5

7.6

6.6

1.7

1.4

23.9

22.8

Asian Paints

Neutral

497

47,629

12,332

14,524

16.3

16.1

13.9

16.0

35.8

31.0

11.4

9.0

35.2

32.5

3.8

3.2

Britannia

Neutral

702

8,403

6,417

7,502

6.1

6.3

21.3

25.5

33.0

27.6

10.7

8.6

35.7

34.6

1.3

1.1

Colgate

Neutral

1,324

18,003

3,588

4,130

20.5

20.9

44.2

51.8

30.0

25.6

29.2

21.3

108.6

96.2

4.9

4.2

Dabur India

Neutral

160

27,820

7,183

8,297

16.8

16.9

5.4

6.3

29.8

25.4

10.5

8.3

39.2

36.7

3.9

3.3

GlaxoSmith Con*

Neutral

4,598

19,337

3,617

4,259

16.1

16.4

122.2

148.7

37.6

30.9

11.7

9.4

34.1

33.7

4.9

4.1

Godrej Consumer

Neutral

818

27,839

7,801

9,017

16.2

15.9

25.1

29.7

32.5

27.6

7.0

5.8

24.9

24.2

3.7

3.2

HUL

Neutral

634

137,133

28,415

31,962

13.6

14.1

16.7

18.2

38.0

34.9

36.5

26.5

112.2

88.1

4.7

4.2

ITC

Neutral

338

267,644

34,294

39,991

36.8

37.0

11.3

13.3

30.0

25.4

9.9

8.0

36.1

34.9

7.5

6.4

Marico

Neutral

207

13,338

5,273

6,044

14.8

14.9

7.3

8.7

28.5

23.9

5.6

4.6

21.4

21.0

2.6

2.2

Nestle*

Neutral

5,236

50,478

9,447

10,968

22.1

22.3

127.5

154.1

41.1

34.0

20.5

14.9

57.7

50.7

5.4

4.6

Tata Global

Neutral

147

9,094

8,069

8,957

9.8

9.7

7.8

8.6

18.8

17.1

2.3

2.2

9.5

9.7

1.1

1.0

FMCG

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

IT
HCL Tech^

Reduce

929

870

64,771

29,424

32,837

22.6

22.0

59.5

63.3

15.6

14.7

3.8

3.1

24.6

21.7

2.0

1.7

Hexaware*

Accumulate

114

123

3,418

2,213

2,479

21.5

20.5

12.1

12.9

9.4

8.9

2.3

2.0

25.4

23.5

1.4

1.2

Infosys

Reduce

2,976

2,820

170,875

47,001

51,196

26.2

26.4

171.3

189.4

17.4

15.7

3.6

3.0

20.4

19.3

3.0

2.6

Infotech Enterprises

Accumulate

176

190

1,965

2,052

2,263

17.2

17.6

20.7

22.5

8.5

7.8

1.3

1.1

14.9

14.0

0.6

0.5

KPIT Cummins

Buy

125

144

2,407

2,614

2,923

17.2

16.8

13.2

14.4

9.5

8.7

1.7

1.4

18.5

16.7

0.9

0.7

Mindtree

Accumulate

964

1,050

4,009

2,768

3,006

19.7

19.9

103.1

105.3

9.4

9.2

2.3

1.8

24.8

20.3

1.2

1.0

Mphasis&

Neutral

400

8,399

6,372

6,852

18.0

18.2

38.0

43.5

10.5

9.2

1.5

1.3

14.3

14.2

0.8

0.7

NIIT

Neutral

15

249

1,144

1,267

9.0

9.1

4.3

5.4

3.5

2.8

0.4

0.3

10.3

12.0

(0.1)

Persistent

Accumulate

526

595

2,102

1,505

1,677

25.9

26.2

53.6

59.7

9.8

8.8

1.7

1.5

17.7

16.7

1.0

0.8

TCS

Accumulate

1,815

2,060

355,275

79,005

91,576

29.7

30.0

88.6

103.1

20.5

17.6

6.5

5.1

31.5

29.2

4.3

3.6

Tech Mahindra

Accumulate

1,251

1,390

29,060

8,102

8,709

19.7

19.2

107.5

117.0

11.6

10.7

2.5

2.0

21.2

18.9

3.6

3.3

Wipro

Neutral

436

107,500

41,659

45,137

21.2

21.4

27.7

29.9

15.8

14.6

3.2

2.8

20.5

19.0

2.1

1.8

D B Corp

Buy

249

302

4,557

1,783

1,968

25.2

26.8

14.6

17.2

17.1

14.4

4.4

3.8

23.9

24.2

2.5

2.2

HT Media

Buy

99

117

2,328

2,205

2,380

15.1

15.6

8.3

9.3

11.9

10.7

1.5

1.3

11.6

11.6

0.7

0.6

Jagran Prakashan

Buy

91

107

3,030

1,664

1,825

20.9

23.0

6.4

7.8

14.2

11.8

2.9

2.6

21.0

23.1

1.9

1.7

PVR

Neutral

338

1,343

1,359

1,540

17.3

17.4

17.2

21.6

19.6

15.7

2.0

1.8

10.3

12.0

1.4

1.2

Sun TV Network

Neutral

408

16,075

2,287

2,551

69.7

70.5

20.0

23.3

20.4

17.5

5.1

4.4

26.4

27.3

6.7

5.9

Bhushan Steel

Neutral

460

10,418

13,794

17,088

30.9

33.5

49.3

66.6

9.3

6.9

1.0

0.9

11.3

13.5

2.4

1.9

Coal India

Buy

270

345

170,763

72,174

76,311

33.3

28.4

28.4

30.9

9.5

8.8

2.6

2.3

37.6

36.2

1.5

1.4

Electrosteel Castings

Buy

10

18

329

1,976

2,017

11.8

12.7

1.3

2.6

8.0

3.9

0.1

2.6

5.2

0.5

0.1

GMDC

Buy

81

155

2,577

1,920

2,239

53.2

52.9

21.6

25.0

3.8

3.2

0.9

0.7

25.1

23.8

0.9

0.5

Hind. Zinc

Buy

99

140

41,725

12,389

13,093

48.5

51.7

15.2

17.0

6.5

5.8

1.1

1.0

18.5

18.0

1.2

0.8

Hindalco

Neutral

87

16,743

89,352

93,672

8.8

9.2

13.4

15.0

6.5

5.8

0.5

0.4

7.3

7.6

0.5

0.5

JSW Steel

Neutral

553

13,365

47,613

48,385

17.4

18.8

81.8

109.6

6.8

5.0

0.7

0.6

11.1

13.4

0.6

0.5

MOIL

Buy

187

248

3,140

1,010

1,046

46.5

47.6

26.8

28.8

7.0

6.5

1.0

0.9

15.4

14.7

0.7

0.5

Monnet Ispat

Buy

106

193

678

2,326

2,709

21.4

23.1

33.3

43.1

3.2

2.5

0.3

0.2

8.3

9.9

1.3

1.0

Nalco

Neutral

26

6,752

7,656

7,988

13.1

13.5

2.6

2.6

10.3

10.0

0.6

0.5

5.5

5.5

0.3

0.3

NMDC

Buy

99

140

39,092

10,610

11,400

66.3

64.2

15.6

16.1

6.3

6.1

1.3

1.2

21.3

19.9

1.6

1.4

SAIL

Neutral

41

17,078

44,060

54,786

9.4

11.5

5.2

7.2

7.9

5.8

0.4

0.4

5.2

6.8

0.6

0.6

Media

Metals & Mining

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

Sales ( cr )
FY14E

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Metals & Mining


Sesa Goa

Buy

127

162

11,046

3,817

5,781

12.1

17.7

27.0

29.6

4.7

4.3

0.6

0.5

12.9

12.5

3.7

2.4

Sterlite Inds

Buy

75

97

25,289

44,493

45,599

22.4

23.9

16.8

19.2

4.5

3.9

0.5

0.4

10.5

10.9

0.5

0.5

Tata Steel

Buy

210

378

9.7

10.8

30.9

47.6

6.8

4.4

0.6

0.6

9.6

13.4

0.5

0.5

Sarda

Buy

77

153

275

1,494

1,568

19.1

20.3

31.3

36.5

2.5

2.1

0.3

0.3

11.8

12.4

0.5

0.4

Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas

Buy

30

40

401

2,615

2,776

12.1

12.0

9.8

10.4

3.0

2.9

0.2

0.2

6.5

6.5

0.4

0.4

Buy

65

102

213

2,344

2,509

14.9

15.4

38.7

47.0

1.7

1.4

0.2

0.2

12.3

12.9

0.5

0.4

Cairn India

Buy

290

364

55,326

18,403

17,925

71.9

62.1

62.1

57.4

4.7

5.1

1.0

0.8

22.6

17.8

1.8

1.5

GAIL

Neutral

305

38,689

49,700

48,822

16.0

16.6

32.9

33.4

9.3

9.1

1.4

1.3

15.9

14.4

0.3

0.2

ONGC

Buy

280

387

239,810 170,063 198,461

36.3

38.3

34.7

41.9

8.1

6.7

1.4

1.2

18.3

19.5

1.1

0.8

Reliance Industries

Neutral

850

274,609 397,546 421,695

8.9

8.7

72.3

76.8

11.8

11.1

1.2

1.1

12.3

11.8

0.7

0.6

Gujarat Gas*

Neutral

165

2,113

3,707

3,850

11.7

12.4

23.7

25.7

7.0

6.4

1.9

1.7

29.6

28.2

0.4

0.4

Indraprastha Gas

Neutral

264

3,700

3,700

4,218

23.4

22.8

26.7

30.4

9.9

8.7

2.1

1.7

22.7

21.8

1.1

0.9

Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals

Buy

116

135

8,734

39,449

43,315

5.3

5.9

14.1

16.9

8.3

6.9

1.7

1.4

21.7

21.9

0.3

0.3

Buy

51

68

2,859

1,171

1,287

91.9

91.9

10.1

11.3

5.0

4.5

0.8

0.7

17.3

16.8

1.9

1.5

Alembic Pharma

Neutral

152

2,858

1,736

2,008

17.1

18.9

10.7

13.9

14.2

10.9

4.5

3.3

35.0

34.7

1.7

1.4

Aurobindo Pharma

Buy

163

271

4,755

6,641

7,637

15.9

15.9

17.3

20.6

9.4

7.9

1.5

1.3

19.5

18.9

1.2

1.0

Aventis*

Neutral

2,420

5,573

1,682

1,917

15.6

15.6

91.9

101.7

26.3

23.8

3.7

3.7

15.6

17.1

2.8

2.3

Cadila Healthcare

Buy

750

929

15,359

7,280

8,640

15.5

15.7

38.3

46.5

19.6

16.1

4.2

3.5

23.5

23.5

2.4

2.0

Cipla

Buy

403

477

32,374

9,274

10,796

23.1

23.1

21.0

23.8

19.2

16.9

3.1

2.6

17.2

16.8

3.2

2.7

Dr Reddy's

Accumulate

2,282

2,535

38,785

13,377

15,350

20.4

20.1

112.1

126.6

20.4

18.0

4.3

3.6

23.5

21.8

3.0

2.6

Dishman Pharma

Buy

41

132

332

1,394

1,534

22.5

22.4

14.8

16.6

2.8

2.5

0.3

0.3

10.8

11.0

0.9

0.8

GSK Pharma*

Neutral

2,339

19,810

2,854

3,145

28.6

28.6

76.6

83.3

30.5

28.1

9.1

8.3

31.1

31.0

6.1

5.4

Indoco Remedies

Buy

63

78

581

747

906

15.3

15.3

5.9

7.6

10.7

8.3

1.3

1.1

12.5

14.4

1.0

0.8

Ipca labs

Neutral

664

8,374

3,246

3,830

20.5

21.7

36.2

44.9

18.3

14.8

4.3

3.4

26.1

25.7

2.7

2.3

Lupin

Neutral

872

39,029

11,641

13,933

21.3

21.3

34.8

41.8

25.0

20.9

5.9

4.6

26.2

24.8

3.4

2.8

Ranbaxy*

Buy

263

384

11,126

11,400

12,060

10.5

12.5

17.5

22.5

15.0

11.7

2.4

2.1

17.0

19.1

0.9

0.8

Sun Pharma

Neutral

567

117,202

13,509

15,846

41.0

41.0

16.5

19.9

34.4

28.5

6.9

5.7

22.0

22.0

8.1

6.7

20,410 140,917 151,537

Power
GIPCL

Buy

60

78

914

1,444

1,482

33.4

33.0

13.7

14.8

4.4

4.1

0.5

0.5

12.3

12.0

0.7

0.5

NTPC

Buy

131

163

108,098

76,734

86,680

24.5

24.3

13.4

14.5

9.8

9.0

1.2

1.1

12.8

12.7

2.1

2.0

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

EV/Sales(x)

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

Real Estate
DLF

Buy

138

236

24,544

8,293

9,622

36.5

36.1

5.7

6.7

24.1

20.5

0.9

0.8

3.7

4.1

5.1

4.2

MLIFE

Accumulate

449

483

1,833

888

1,002

27.0

29.9

33.9

42.1

13.2

10.7

1.3

1.2

9.9

11.2

2.7

2.4

Bharti Airtel

Reduce

344

321

137,391

85,489

94,229

31.9

31.9

10.2

14.6

33.6

23.5

2.4

2.2

7.2

9.4

2.3

2.0

Idea Cellular

Neutral

167

55,496

25,640

28,459

26.9

27.2

4.0

4.9

41.8

33.8

3.5

3.2

8.4

9.4

2.6

2.3

Rcom

Neutral

131

27,121

22,751

24,628

30.9

31.3

3.4

5.3

38.3

25.0

0.8

0.8

2.1

3.1

2.8

2.4

Telecom

Others
Abbott India*

Buy

1,383

1,659

2,939

1,863

2,081

11.8

12.4

71.2

83.0

19.4

16.7

3.9

3.3

21.6

21.5

1.3

1.0

Bajaj Electricals

Buy

164

237

1,637

3,885

4,472

5.4

7.2

11.0

19.7

15.0

8.3

2.0

1.7

13.5

20.3

0.4

0.4

Cera Sanitaryware

Buy

512

613

648

631

797

14.5

13.7

42.6

51.1

12.0

10.0

2.9

2.3

26.5

25.3

1.0

0.8

Cravatex

Buy

299

459

77

248

284

6.5

7.3

27.2

38.2

11.0

7.8

1.7

1.4

15.7

18.5

0.5

0.4

Finolex Cables

Buy

54

68

821

2,563

2,899

9.8

9.8

10.1

11.3

5.3

4.8

0.8

0.7

14.3

13.8

0.2

0.2

Force Motors

Buy

262

349

342

2,304

2,649

3.1

3.6

28.0

43.7

9.4

6.0

0.3

0.3

3.1

4.7

0.1

0.1

Goodyear India*

Accumulate

307

345

708

1,458

1,542

8.3

9.0

32.3

37.0

9.5

8.3

1.7

1.5

19.5

19.3

0.3

0.3

Hitachi

Buy

106

191

288

1,080

1,199

8.9

9.1

18.3

19.1

5.8

5.5

1.0

0.9

19.2

17.0

0.4

0.3

Honeywell Automation* Neutral

2,395

2,118

1,842

2,131

7.7

7.8

111.1

130.9

21.6

18.3

2.7

2.4

13.3

13.9

1.1

0.9

IFB Agro

Buy

135

198

122

495

651

12.7

12.9

29.3

39.5

4.6

3.4

0.7

0.6

15.4

17.6

0.4

0.3

ITD Cementation

Buy

158

234

182

1,430

1,573

11.1

11.0

19.1

26.9

8.3

5.9

0.4

0.4

5.4

7.1

0.5

0.5

Jyothy Laboratories

Buy

160

199

2,653

1,220

1,476

13.3

13.6

5.5

9.0

29.0

17.7

3.3

3.0

12.1

17.7

2.5

2.0

MRF

Buy

12,891

16,218

5,467

11,799

12,587

14.1

13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0

7.2

7.2

1.5

1.3

23.5

19.2

0.6

0.5

Page Industries

Neutral

4,428

4,939

1,057

1,282

19.4

19.6

124.8

153.7

35.5

28.8

17.6

13.0

56.3

51.8

4.8

3.9

Relaxo Footwears

Buy

736

981

884

1,196

1,401

11.9

12.6

55.6

75.4

13.3

9.8

3.2

2.4

27.1

28.1

0.9

0.7

Siyaram Silk Mills

Buy

196

311

184

1,158

1,322

10.8

11.2

62.1

77.8

3.2

2.5

0.5

0.4

17.2

18.4

0.4

0.3

Styrolution ABS India*

Buy

366

492

643

1,007

1,108

8.4

8.7

30.3

35.1

12.1

10.4

1.3

1.2

11.7

12.2

0.6

0.6

TAJ GVK

Buy

58

108

364

300

319

35.8

36.2

7.9

9.1

7.3

6.4

1.0

0.9

13.9

14.4

1.5

1.3

Tata Sponge Iron

Buy

247

371

381

814

849

17.0

17.6

64.6

69.2

3.8

3.6

0.5

0.5

14.5

13.8

0.1

(0.1)

TTK Healthcare

Buy

508

632

394

416

481

4.5

6.1

16.2

25.3

31.3

20.1

3.9

3.4

12.6

18.1

0.8

0.7

Tree House

Accumulate

259

297

932

153

194

53.0

52.8

12.4

15.6

20.9

16.6

2.5

2.2

11.8

13.1

6.3

4.8

TVS Srichakra

Buy

United Spirits

Neutral

Vesuvius India*

Buy

www.angelbroking.com

168

230

129

1,591

1,720

6.1

6.4

24.5

38.3

6.9

4.4

0.7

0.7

10.9

15.9

0.3

0.2

2,391

34,744

12,294

14,162

12.0

12.0

42.1

67.7

56.8

35.3

4.0

3.6

9.1

10.7

3.2

2.7

367

439

744

600

638

20.1

19.4

35.7

36.6

10.3

10.0

1.8

1.6

19.4

17.1

1.0

0.9

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Stock Watch
Company Name

Reco

CMP

Target

Mkt Cap

Sales ( cr )

OPM(%)

EPS ( )

PER(x)

P/BV(x)

RoE(%)

EV/Sales(x)

( )

Price ( )

( cr )

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

FY14E

FY15E

74

117

489

2,042

2,363

14.6

14.8

12.3

16.5

6.0

4.5

0.5

0.4

7.6

9.4

0.7

0.6

Others
HSIL

Buy

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 01, 2013

www.angelbroking.com

Market Outlook
August 02, 2013

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
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