DAILY IFOREX REPORT

07TH AUG 2013

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HEADLINES
Italian GDP Beats Expectations In First Major Q2 Release From The Euro-Zone US Dollar Looking to Fed-speak for QE Reduction Clues

US Dollar Looking to Comments from Chicago Feds Evans for Direction Japanese Yen Sold as Nikkei Rallies on Pension Funds Portfolio Shuffle

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3260 TGT 1.3240/1.3210 SL 1.3290

Aussie Dollar Rallies as RBA Offers No Clear Signal on Future Rate Cuts
A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours shifts the spotlight to the US docket, where the focus will be on Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. The vocally dovish policymaker is a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC committee this year. A prepared speech is not scheduled; rather, Evans will be answering reporters questions, who will no doubt grill him on the likelihood of a reduction in the Feds monthly asset purchases at the September policy meeting. If Evans is perceived to be in favor of tapering the size of the QE effort, this is likely to broadly boost the US Dollar, and vice versa. The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked an advance in the Nikkei 225 benchmark stock index, suggesting a sentiment-driven unwinding of carry trades funded in terms of the perennially low-yielding currency was the catalyst behind the move. The news-wires chalked up the Nikkei rally to a Reuters report suggesting Japans civil servants pension fund is weighing investing more of its capital in shares versus domestic bonds. The Australian Dollar rallied as expected after the RBA delivered a widely expected 25bps interest rate cut without offering explicit guidance pointing to continued easing at upcoming meetings. The tone of the policy statement turned nominally less dovish, with the punch-line proclaiming policymakers will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed, which stands in contrast to last months assertion that the the inflation outlook may provide some scope for further easing. Going forward, this is likely to make for a data-sensitive environment, putting the spotlight on Julys Employment data. Chinese Exports and CPI releases may likewise prove important considering the Aussies sensitivity to growth trends in the East Asian powerhouse.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 98.30 TGT 98.50/98.80 SL 98.00

BUY GBPUSD ABOVE

1.5380 TGT 1.5400/1.5430 SL 1.5350

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 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0003(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>41(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>48(BULLISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BEARISH SIGNAL)

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HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>44(BULLISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Aug 4

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

23:30

AiG Performance of Services Index AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUL) AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUL) NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JUL) AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUN) AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (JUL) CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (2Q) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (AUG) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JUL) GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD ISM NonManufacturing Composite (JUL)

Medium

39.4

41.5

Mon Aug 5

00:30

Medium

2.7%

2.4%

00:30

Low

0.5%

0.0%

01:00

Low

0.6%

-3.7%

01:30

Medium

0.0%

0.4%

0.2%

01:30

Low

0.0%

-0.1%

2.0%

01:45

Medium

51.3

51.3

06:00

Medium

1.20

1.17

07:45

Low

48.7

46.5

45.8

07:50

Low

48.6

48.3

48.3

07:55

Medium

51.3

52.5

52.5

08:00

Medium

50.5

50.4

50.4

08:00

Medium

49.8

49.6

49.6

08:30

Medium

-4.9

-10.0

-12.6

08:30

Medium

60.2

57.4

56.9

08:30

Low

$1672M

-$1871M

09:00

Medium

-0.9%

-1.3%

0.3%

09:00

Low

-0.5%

-0.7%

1.1%

14:00

Medium

56.0

53.1

52.2

15:45

USD Fed's Fisher Speaks on the Economy in Oregon USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update NZD ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JUL) GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like (YoY) (JUL) AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUN) AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JUL) AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD House Price Index (YoY) (2Q) AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (AUG 6) JPY Coincident Index (JUN P) JPY Leading Index (JUN P) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JUL) GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN) GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUN) GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN) GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUN) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q P) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUN) USD Trade Balance (JUN) CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUN)

Low

21:00

Low

22:00

Low

9.6%

-7.8%

23:01

Low

2.2%

2.0%

1.4%

Tue Aug 6

01:30

Medium

602M

804M

507M

01:30

Low

-1.1%

-1.6%

01:30

Low

2.4%

1.0%

0.8%

01:30

Low

5.1%

3.0%

3.3%

04:30
LIVE

High

2.50%

2.50%

2.75%

05:00

Medium

105.2

105.1

106.0

05:00

Medium

107.0

107.3

110.7

07:00

Low

4.6%

4.3%

3.7%

07:00

Low

0.9%

0.5%

0.7%

08:02

Low

12.7%

13.4%

08:30

Medium

1.2%

0.8%

-2.3%

08:30

Medium

2.0%

1.0%

-2.9%

08:30

Low

1.1%

0.7%

0.0%

08:30

Low

1.9%

1.0%

-0.7%

09:00
LIVE

Medium

-2.0%

-2.2%

-2.4%

09:00
LIVE

Low

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.6%

10:00

Medium

4.3%

0.3%

-2.0%

10:00

Low

3.8%

1.0%

-0.5%

12:30

Medium

-$43.5B

-$45.0B

12:30

Low

-0.51B

-0.30B

14:00

GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JUL) USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (AUG) USD JOLTs Job Openings (JUN) USD Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago NZD Unemployment Rate (2Q) NZD Employment Change (YoY) (2Q) NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Private Wages inc Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (2Q) NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (2Q) AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JUL) JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL) AUD Home Loans (JUN) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (JUN) AUD Investment Lending (JUN) CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JUL) CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JUL) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL) CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL) CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) GBP Lloyds Employment Confidence (JUL) GBP Bank of England Inflation Report

High

0.6%

14:00

Low

47.5

47.1

14:00

Low

3895

3828

17:00

Low

22:45

High

6.3%

6.2%

22:45

Medium

0.7%

0.3%

22:45

Low

0.6%

1.0%

22:45

Low

0.3%

1.7%

22:45

Low

0.5%

0.3%

22:45

Low

67.9%

67.8%

22:45

Low

0.5%

0.4%

23:30

Medium

39.5

23:50

Low

$1238.7B

Wed Aug 7

01:30

Medium

2.0%

1.8%

01:30

Medium

2.3%

01:30

Low

1.5%

05:45

Medium

-1

-5

07:00

Low

431.0B

434.8B

07:15

Medium

0.2%

07:15

Medium

-0.1%

-0.1%

07:15

Low

0.2%

07:15

Low

-0.4%

0.1%

08:30

Low

-33

09:30
LIVE

High

10:00

EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 2) CAD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN) CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (JUL) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 2) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 2) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economy in Washington USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Monetary Policy in Cleveland USD Consumer Credit (JUN) JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JUL) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (JUN) JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JUL) JPY BoP Current Account Balance (YoY) (JUN) JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (JUN) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (AUG 2) JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q) JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

Medium

-0.3%

-1.0%

10:00

Low

0.3%

-1.0%

11:00

Low

-3.7%

12:30

Medium

-1.2%

4.5%

14:00

Medium

56.0

55.3

14:30

Low

-1904K

14:30

Low

431K

14:30

Low

-466K

14:30

Low

770K

16:30

Low

17:40

Low

19:00

Medium

$15.000B

$19.615B

23:50

Medium

1.9%

1.9%

23:50

Medium

233.2B

23:50

Medium

-154.9B

23:50

Medium

-128.7B

-906.7B

23:50

Low

727.3B

623.3B

23:50

Low

2.2%

23:50

Low

-3.5%

58.1%

23:50

Low

396.5B

540.7B

23:50

Low

-430.3B

23:50

Low

-61.8B

23:50

Low

3.2%

Thu Aug 8

High

JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 8) CNY Trade Balance (JUL) JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (AUG 8) USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (2Q) USD Mortgage Delinquencies (2Q) CNY Exports (YoY) (JUL) CNY Imports (YoY) (JUL) NZD QV House Prices (YoY) (JUL) AUD Employment Change (JUL) AUD Unemployment Rate (JUL) AUD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) AUD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) AUD Participation Rate (JUL) JPY Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JUL) JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JUL) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JUL) JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JUL) CHF Unemployment Rate (JUL) CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL) EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN) EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUN) EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUN) AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JUL)

High

Medium

$25.90B

$27.12B

Medium

270T

Low

3.6%

Low

7.3%

Low

1.5%

-3.1%

Low

1.0%

-0.7%

00:00

Low

7.6%

01:30

High

6.0K

10.3K

01:30

High

5.8%

5.7%

01:30

Medium

-4.4K

01:30

Low

14.8K

01:30

Low

65.3%

65.3%

02:00

Low

8.46

04:30

Medium

-8.0%

05:00

Medium

54.1

53.6

05:00

Low

53.5

53

05:45

Medium

2.9%

2.9%

05:45

Medium

3.2%

3.2%

06:00

Medium

15.0B

13.1B

06:00

Low

17.0B

11.2B

06:00

Low

1.0%

-2.4%

06:00

Low

0.0%

1.7%

06:30

Low

A$51.9B

08:00

EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (JUN) USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3) CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (JUN) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 27) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (AUG 2) NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL) NZD Card Spending Retail (MoM) (JUL) JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JUN) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JUL) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JUL) CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for August JPY Consumer Confidence Index (JUL) CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (JUL) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) GBP Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUN) GBP Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (JUN) GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUN)

High

12:30

Medium

1.8%

12:30

Medium

335K

326K

12:30

Low

0.1%

12:30

Low

2951K

14:30

Low

59

22:45

Medium

1.2%

22:45

Low

0.4%

1.1%

23:50

Medium

-0.4%

1.2%

23:50

Low

3.8%

3.8%

23:50

Low

3.1%

3.0%

Fri Aug 9

01:30

High

2.8%

2.7%

01:30

Medium

-2.1%

-2.7%

05:00

Medium

05:00

Medium

45.0

44.3

05:30

Medium

20.0%

20.1%

05:30

Medium

9.3%

05:30

Medium

8.8%

8.9%

05:30

Medium

12.7%

05:30

Medium

13.4%

13.3%

08:30

Medium

-2350

-2435

08:30

Low

0.0%

08:30

Low

-4.8%

08:30

Low

-4093

08:30

GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUN) CAD Housing Starts (JUL) CAD Net Change in Employment (JUL) CAD Unemployment Rate (JUL) CAD Full Time Employment Change (JUL) CAD Part Time Employment Change (JUL) CAD Participation Rate (JUL) USD Wholesale Inventories (JUN) USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (JUN)

Low

-8500

-8491

12:15

Medium

191.0K

199.6K

12:30

High

6.0K

-0.4K

12:30

High

7.1%

7.1%

12:30

Medium

-32.4

12:30

Low

32.2

12:30

Low

66.7

14:00

Medium

0.4%

-0.5%

14:00

Low

0.7%

1.6%

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