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Synoptic Variability of Rainfall and Cloudiness along the Coasts of Northern Peru and Ecuador during the 1997/98 El Nio Event
MICHAEL W. DOUGLAS
National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma

JOHN MEJIA
Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma

NORMA ORDINOLA
Universidad de Piura, Piura, Peru

JOSHUA BOUSTEAD
National Weather Service, Omaha, Nebraska (Manuscript received 6 March 2007, in final form 3 June 2008) ABSTRACT This paper describes the meteorological conditions associated with large fluctuations in rainfall over the coastal regions of northern Peru and Ecuador during the 1997/98 El Nio event. Using data from a network of routine rain gauges and special gauges established just prior to the onset of heavy rains, it is shown that large variations in the daily rainfall on quasi-weekly time scales occurred during the period JanuaryApril 1998. These rainfall fluctuations were approximately in phase along the coast from near the equator to 7S. The daily rainfall data was averaged to develop a subset of wet and dry days, and then these dates were used as the basis for compositing. Special pilot balloon observations were composited with respect to the wet and dry days, showing that westerly and northerly wind anomalies are associated with wet spells. Composites of the National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPNCAR) reanalysis and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data support a modest association of anomalous westerly wind events with enhanced rainfall. The relationship observed between westerly zonal wind anomalies and rainfall west of the Andes during 1998 suggested using the NCEP reanalysis to develop composites based on westerly wind events observed during other years. Zonal wind anomalies at 700 hPa were used as the primary criterion for stratifying wet and dry days, despite reservations about the association between rainfall and zonal wind. Compositing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and OLR data for 220 west wind anomaly events from the months of JanuaryApril for the years 19902005 showed that they are associated with enhanced cloudiness that propagates eastward at 10 m s1. The composites using NCEP reanalyses show the evolution of the wind field associated with the wet days and suggest a link between extratropical wave passages across North America and anomalous westerly wind events off the coast of Ecuador and northern Peru.

1. Introduction
The El Nio phenomenon has been the subject of many research studies, numerous reviews (e.g., Enfield

Corresponding author address: Dr. Michael W. Douglas, National Severe Storms Laboratory, 120 David L. Boren Blvd., Norman, OK 73072. E-mail: michael.douglas@noaa.gov DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2191.1 2009 American Meteorological Society

1989), many books (e.g., Philander 1990, 2004) and articles in the popular literature. In large part this has been a consequence of the relatively recent, and very large, El Nio events of 1982/83 and 1997/98. Associated with major El Nio events is an extreme enhancement in the rainfall over the coastal regions of northern Peru and Ecuador, and this has been known for some time as one of the most dramatic climatic anomalies found anywhere on earth (Trewartha 1962).

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a. Previous studies of daily rainfall variability

Although many studies have involved planetary-scale aspects of the El Nio phenomenon, especially since 1983, comparatively few studies have focused on the regional or local aspects of the rainfall along the coast of northwestern South America. Even fewer studies have considered the synoptic, or high-frequency variability of rainfall during these events, despite the observation of large daily rainfall fluctuations that occur over northern Peru. Horel and Cornejo-Garrido (1986) described the evolution of the 1982/83 El Nio event over the eastern Pacific, with special emphasis on the Peruvian coast. Using outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and surface wind data they described the differences between the previous year and the El Nio year, showing that weaker surface winds were present during 1983. They also noted that daily rainfall data, averaged over 17 stations, showed that the main heavy rainfall events were episodic and separated by dry periods. OLR data also showed this, as well as a large diurnal variation in convection, with an offshore early morning maximum similar to many other tropical regions. Goldberg et al. (1987) described the peculiar mesoscale features of the rainfall around Piura, Peru (see Fig. 1 for geography) during the 1983 rains and their relation to the topography of northern Peru. Their study focused on the daily rainfall data from 66 stations and examination of geostationary imagery and loops. They forcefully made the point that, within the envelop of the overall El Nio seasonal enhancement of rainfall, the especially destructive rain events responsible for the most significant flooding and mudflows were episodic and quasi-periodic. They also speculated on the possible forcing for these heavy rain events, and evaluated the hypothesis that disturbances over the Amazon basin might be a possible inducement for coastal convective events. Bendix (2000), working principally with satellite imagery and cloud track winds, described characteristics of the cloudiness and its diurnal variation over the region of Ecuador and northern Peru during the 1991/92 El Nio. The role of landsea breeze circulations was stressed in controlling the daily cloudiness. A recent study involving daily rainfall over northern Peru is that of Takahashi (2004), where he examined two recent years (1998 and 2002) when elevated sea surface temperatures favored deep convection over northern Peru. The unique feature of this study was the analysis of boundary layer wind profiler observations from Piura, which allowed for a detailed depiction of the diurnal cycle of the winds up to the midtroposphere. By comparing wet and dry day composites of the pro-

FIG. 1. The special sounding sites established for the 1997/98 El Nio event.

filer data, Takahashi showed that wet days had a stronger westerly wind component and that this was concentrated in the late afternoon to early evening hours. The 2002 results showed evidence of a deep positive zonal wind anomaly during wet days that extended to 5-km altitude. Takahashi also composited the National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPNCAR) reanalyses for the wet and dry days for both years, and showed that the westerly wind anomalies extended over a 3500-km zonal extent. The small sample size during 2002 (8 wet days) limited the significance of the results compared with those from 1997/98.

b. Overview of the present study

A natural step toward the possible prediction of days with high and low rainfall during El Nio events (or even other years) is to determine whether a large-scale signal is present in meteorological fields that can be resolved by either direct meteorological measurements (such as pilot balloon or radiosonde observations) or from routinely available analyses or satellite measurements. This paper seeks to advance this goal, with its main objective being to describe the relationship between the rainfall variability on synoptic time scales

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over the coastal region of northern Peru and Ecuador and larger-scale meteorological fields. Special experiment data collected during the 1997/98 El Nio event (described in section 2), served as the initial motivation for our work. Although a preliminary analysis of the special observations was carried out and informally reported (Douglas et al. 1999), the availability of additional data sources, including daily rainfall observations from the Ecuadorean National Meteorological Service [i.e., the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (INAMHI)], along with 10-km Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery for the period, motivated expansion and extension of our original effort. Concerns about the generality of the 1998 results led to an expansion of the work, and this paper now presents results from our investigation of the synoptic variability of cloudiness over the period 19902005. To this end we have used OLR and NCEPNCAR reanalyses to describe these variations.

impossible. The frequent occurrence of low cloudiness also prevented tracking many of the balloons to high levels. Despite these unfavorable conditions, some 1467 pilot balloon observations were made from 1 December 1997 to 31 May 1998, with March 1998 being the most densely sampled, with 391 observations. (The complete dataset is available from the PACS-SONET Web site: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/pacs).

b. Rain gauge data

The rainfall data used in this study included available Peruvian Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa e Hidrologa (SENAMHI) and Ecuadorean (INAMHI) Meteorological Service observations, other regional network observations, and special PACS-SONET rain gauge observations. The routine SENAMHI and INAMHI rain gauges, with a 20-cm aperture, were read manually. The PACS-SONET rain gauges, of which about 100 were installed prior to the onset of heavy rains, were of a wedge-shaped design (Tru-Chek brand) with an 6 cm by 6 cm rectangular opening. These gauges were compared with the SENAMHI gauges at a few sites and the differences between these gauges and the SENAMHI were found to be small. For this study, any systematic differences between the rain gauges have been ignored. The rain gauges were read each morning at between 0700 and 0800 LT (12001300 UTC). Local observations and satellite imagery suggested that the rainfall over land had a strong diurnal cycle, with most rain occurring from early afternoon to late evening. The time of the rain gauge observation was a minimum in the rainfall, allowing clear separation of the rainfall events, with the morning rainfall measurement being assigned to the previous day.

2. Data used in this study

The Pan American Climate Studies Sounding Network (PACS-SONET) project (Douglas and Fernandez 1997; Douglas and Murillo 2008) established 12 pilot balloon stations from southern Mexico to northern Peru in early 1997, which were to make twice-daily observations for a 6-month period. The projects initial focus was to describe atmospheric circulation variations associated with wet and dry spells over Central America (Pea and Douglas 2002). A special adaptation of the projects activities for the 1997/98 El Nio event provided additional measurements that have been used in this study, and are described below.

a. The special El Nio pilot balloon network

The PACS-SONET project had established pilot balloon stations in May 1997 at Piura, Peru, and in Ecuador at Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, and San Cristobal (in the Galapagos Islands). Support was requested in late 1997 to establish two additional pilot balloon sites in Ecuador and five additional sites in Peru (Fig. 1). Observer training was carried out between late November 1997 and early January 1998. Together, all of the stations attempted to make twice-daily observations through May 1998. Unfortunately, major logistical problems associated with gas cylinder transportation occurred after the start of heavy rains. Many road segments were washed out in northern Peru, making the delivery of the gas cylinders from the south difficult or

c. NCEPNCAR reanalyses and satellite imagery

To complement, and to compare with, the pilot balloon observations, we also have used in this study the NCEPNCAR reanalyses (Kalnay et al. 1996; hereafter NCEP reanalyses). The GOES infrared imagery, available at 3-hourly intervals, was obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP; Knapp 2004). We have used these data, with 10-km resolution, for the period 19982005. In addition, we have also used daily-averaged OLR data (Liebmann and Smith 1996) available at 2.5 resolution for comparison with the NCEP reanalyses and with the GOES imagery.

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FIG. 2. (a) Number of rain gauges reporting observations each day in northern Peru. (b) Percentage of the number of station reporting rainfall each day in northern Peru. (c) Average daily rainfall (mm) for all rain gauges reporting on a particular day (solid circles indicate the wet spell days, solid squares indicate the dry spell centers, and open squares for all other days). (d) As in (c), but for an average of 27 Ecuadorean stations west of the Andes. The dashed lines in (c) and (d) show a 30-day running mean.

3. Methodology a. Identifying wet and dry days

The basic methodology of our work was that of a compositing study, whereby we hoped to distinguish the differences between the conditions associated with very wet days and those associated with relatively dry days. To develop such composites required a procedure to distinguish wet days from dry days. Since tropical convective rainfall can be highly variable in space, we averaged over the rain gauge network, as done by both

Horel and Cornejo-Garrido (1986) and Goldberg et al. (1987), to obtain a signal more representative of larger spatial scales. Averaging the rain gauges also produced a product with a spatial scale comparable to the pilot balloon station separation and the 2.5 resolution of the NCEP reanalyses. The rain gauge data were averaged over all stations from the PeruEcuador border (3.5S) to just north of Trujillo (8S). Only stations west of the Andean highest terrain were used in the averaging. Figure 2 summarizes the essential aspects of the spatially averaged daily rainfall. The daily number of Pe-

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FIG. 3. (a) Analysis of mean rainfall (mm day1) for JanuaryApril 1998, based on rain gauge observations over northern Peru and southern Ecuador. Special rain gauges installed for the season are shown as open dots. Average (b) wet and (c) dry days (mm day1), and (d) relative amplitude (%) between wet and dry spells compared to mean daily rainfall. The solid (open) circles in (d) denote positive (negative) relative amplitude between wet and dry spells. The shaded contours represent the elevation in meters.

ruvian rainfall reports received varied from approximately 30 in early December 1997 to just over 100 in March and April 1998 (Fig. 2a); Ecuadorean stations were more uniform in number throughout the period (not shown). A plot of the percentage of stations reporting rain showed some evidence of synoptic variability (Fig. 2b). However, the variability became much more evident when the total daily rainfall (sum of rainfall from all stations) was divided by the number of stations reporting (Fig. 2c). The resulting daily averaged rainfall varies from more than 30 mm day1 on wet days to less than 10 mm day1 on drier days. Days when the rainfall over the network was clearly a maximum relative to days before or after were deemed wet and those with a distinct minimum were considered dry. This selection was somewhat subjective, but sufficient to clearly distinguish wet days from dry days. Because the rainfall increased from mid-December to February the wet days in the early season could have less rainfall than those later in the wet season. A total of 18 wet events and 17 dry events were selected; this gave an average period of 6 days for the eventsthough considerable variability about this value is evident. The quasi-periodicity of the events evident from Fig. 2c and the fact that these variations reflect rainfall over

the coastal region of northern Peru suggested that the rainfall might be modulated by larger-scale controls. A time series for the average rainfall of the 27 stations reporting in coastal Ecuador (Fig. 2d), though less numerous and less dense than those in northern Peru, shows a general similarity, though not a close match, to the time series from the Peruvian stations.

FIG. 4. Average daily rainfall of northern Peru (mm) vs daily rainfall of southern Ecuador (mm). The solid line is least squares fit to all data points.

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FIG. 5. (a) The wet day mean winds, averaged over the 01 km AGL layer, for all wet days. (b) As in (a), but for dry days. (c) As in (a), but for wet day mean minus dry day mean winds. Because all stations were within 100 m of sea level, AGL is approximately equal to above sea level. Full wind barbs are 1 m s1, half are 0.5 m s1; numbers next to observations are the speed in m s1. Elevations above 1000 m are shaded.

b. Compositing with respect to wet and dry days

With the wet and dry days identified, the next step involved calculating mean fields with respect to these dates. The special pilot balloon data are available only during 1998 (with some limited exceptions), and thus the initial focus has been on this year. However, the results motivated the study of additional years, eventually leading us to generalize the results over a 16-yr period extending from 1990 to 2005. We have focused only on the period JanuaryApril, since this is the

height of the wet season in the coastal regions of northern Peru and Ecuador, and relatively little rain falls in the coastal parts of northern Peru during other months. For both 1998 and the other years in this period we have used the NCEP reanalyses and OLR data. We averaged the 1200, 1800, 0000, and 0600 UTC NCEP data to produce daily-averaged analyses. This yielded an analysis centered about 2100 UTC, which was relatively close to the peak time of precipitation over the land stations. OLR data, available daily, were similarly used to develop composite fields. GOES infrared im-

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agery, available at 3-hourly intervals, have similarly been averaged to produce daily averages, which are 24-h intervals centered on 0000 UTC.

4. Characteristics of the wet and dry days during 1998 a. Rainfall patterns on wet and dry days
In general terms the mean precipitation during the period JanuaryApril 1998 (Fig. 3a) is similar in spatial structure to that shown for the 1982/83 El Nio event (see Fig. 11b in Goldberg et al. 1987). The largest rainfall is close to the base of the mountains on the Pacific slope, with much smaller amounts being reported to the east of the continental divide and smaller quantities along the coast. Average rainfall during wet and dry days is shown in Figs. 3b,c. Wet days clearly have larger rainfall amounts than dry days, though the enhancement is less evident in Ecuador than in northern Peru. This is more easily seen from Fig. 3d, which shows the percentage increase of wet day rainfall relative to dry day rainfall. The greatest enhancement of rainfall on wet days is found around the Piura area. This result is, in part, due to selecting the wet days based on rainfall from the Peru stations, which are most densely concentrated in the region around Piura. Had we used the rainfall from Ecuadorean stations as our criteria for wet days the anomalies would likely have been larger in Ecuador. Only four stations showed less rainfall on the wet days, and these were by relatively small amounts. All other sites show higher rainfall during wet days. The relationship between daily mean rainfall in Ecuador and in northern Peru over the JanuaryApril period is shown in Fig. 4. The agreement is reasonable (correlation 0.69), showing that coherent rainfall variations, suggested by Fig. 3d, extend from near the equator to near 8S.

FIG. 6. Mean profiles of the (a) zonal and (b) meridional wind during wet (solid circles) days and dry (open circles) days, based on observations from three coastal pilot balloon stations (Piura, Tumbes, and Chiclayo) in northern Peru and NCEP reanalysis data (squares) for a grid point (5S, 82.5W) offshore northern Peru. Mean profiles are obtained by including morning (AM) and afternoon (PM) soundings.

b. Pilot balloon-based wind analyses

To seek an explanation for the strong synoptic variability in the rainfall series (Figs. 2c,d) we first examine the pilot balloon data. Using the criteria mentioned in section 3 the wet and dry day mean profiles of the vector wind were calculated for each pilot balloon stations data (Figs. 5a,b). Differences between the wet and dry day mean winds were then calculated to more clearly show the differences (Fig. 5c). The observational period and total number of observations varied with the station and it was not possible to produce a uniform composite. Figure 5 shows the composite based only on observations made during the period 1 January 30 April, when the observations were most complete.

Overall, the wet and dry day means show a change in the position of the zero-meridional wind in the 01-km layer along the coast of Ecuador, with a southward displacement during wet days. The difference between the wet and dry day means (Fig. 5c) shows most stations with a northerly wind anomaly during wet days, except for those in Central America, and at Cartagena and Iquitos. The anomaly flow at most Ecuadorean and Peruvian stations is approximately parallel to the coastline. Because there are variations in the observational periods at the different coastal pilot balloon sites and the heights reached by different balloons varied from day to day, we prepared a multistation mean of the zonal and meridional winds during wet and dry days. Three stations with the most complete records were used: Tumbes, Piura, and Chiclayo. The zonal winds (Fig. 6a) show a stronger westerly component during wet days, of about 1.5 m s1, through a layer extending to above 4 km. The mean meridional wind (Fig. 6b) is about 1

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FIG. 7. (a) Mean profiles of the zonal wind for morning (circles) and afternoon (triangles) soundings during wet (solid circles) days and dry (open circles) days, based on observations from three coastal pilot balloon stations (Piura, Tumbes, and Chiclayo) in northern Peru. (b) Mean profiles of zonal wind for afternoon minus morning soundings during wet (solid circles) days and dry (open circles) days.

m s1 stronger (southerly) during dry days than on wet days below 2 km ASL. Above 2.5 km ASL, the meridional wind is more northerly during wet days. The results from the pilot balloon observations are quite similar to those reported by Takahashi (2004) using profiler data at Piura for the same period. Previous studies, notably Bendix (2000) and Takahashi (2004) have examined the diurnal cycle relationship with rain events. The twice-daily pilot balloon data, though limited by cloudiness, do permit a depiction of the diurnal variation of the wind field. Figure 7a shows the diurnal variation during both wet and dry days. In general, the mean zonal wind is more westerly during wet days than during dry days. The difference between the PM and AM profiles for the wet and dry day means (Fig. 7b) shows that the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of the zonal wind is approximately the same (2.5 m s1) in the lowest 1 km but the profiles diverge

FIG. 8. (a) Relationship between 1998 rainfall in northern Peru and zonal wind based on observations from three coastal pilot balloon stations (solid dots) averaged over the 01 km AGL layer and the zonal wind based on daily NCEPNCAR reanalysis data (open dots) at 925 hPa for a grid point (5S, 82.5W) near the center of the Peruvian rain gauge network. Dotted (dashed) line is least squares fit between Peruvian rainfall and pilot balloon observations (pibals) (NCAPNCAR reanalysis). (b) Correlograms for the rainfall and zonal wind data shown in (a) and also for OLR and 700-hPa wind anomalies with daily rainfall.

above this, with the dry day profile showing little change in the 1.53-km layer. During wet days the PM zonal wind is stronger than the AM zonal wind by about 1 m s1 up to 5 km. These results agree with the Piura diurnal cycle shown by Takahashi (2004) in that the afternoon westerly flow is much deeper during wet days.

5. Structure of wet and dry days from NCEPNCAR reanalyses, GOES infrared imagery, and OLR data a. Selecting wet and dry days from NCEPNCAR reanalysis and OLR data alone
The generation of composite wind fields associated with wet and dry days during 1998 is relatively straight-

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FIG. 9. (a) Timelongitude Hovmller plots of NCEP reanalysis zonal wind for 700 hPa averaged between 7.5S and 2.5N during JanuaryApril 1998. (b) As in (a), but for 925 hPa. (c) As in (a), but for OLR. The black squares in (a)(c) are wet days determined from Peruvian rain gauge data, red squares in (a) are dry days. The dash marks at 85W in (a) show subjectively selected 700-hPa anomalous westerly wind events.

forward using the selected wet and dry days. Likewise, the evolution of these days can be determined by choosing days prior to and after the wettest days. However, to anticipate results that we later show related to the generality of the 1998 results, it is not straightforward to identify wet and dry days for years other than 1998. First, during nonEl Nio years there is little rainfall in northern Peru, making the identification of wet and dry days difficult. Then there is the unavailability

of sufficient Ecuadorean rainfall data for other years, making a rainfall-based index unreliable. We are left with several nonrainfall based indices to estimate wet and dry days. To generate a multiyear composite of wet and dry events we needed a quantity that could ideally be related to rainfall along the Peruvian and Ecuadorean coast. Perhaps the most obvious index related to rainfall would be OLR or some quantification of GOES

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FIG. 10. Comparison of wet day minus dry day composite wind fields for 925 hPa, using four different criteria for determining the wet and dry days for the months of JanuaryApril 19902005. See text for an explanation of each. The gray shaded region indicates where the differences between westerly and easterly composites exceed the 95% significance level of the Students t test.

infrared imagery. However, we were initially motivated to use zonal wind anomalies as an index, based on the difference between wet and dry day mean zonal winds evident from the pilot balloon data (Fig. 5). Despite the clear difference in the mean profiles from Fig. 5, the daily data (Fig. 8a) show considerable scatter. Comparison of the correlations with NCEP 925-hPa zonal winds (roughly the same level as the pilot balloon data), 700hPa zonal winds, and OLR for 1998 shows that the NCEP winds are the least correlated with rainfall (Fig. 8b), though the differences are not large. Figure 9 shows three Hovmller diagrams for 1998. The first two show NCEP zonal wind anomalies, while the third displays OLR anomalies. The agreement between wet and dry days (determined from the Peruvian rainfall data) and the zonal wind (and OLR) anomalies is clearly imperfect. This reflects the scatter evident in Fig. 8a. Dates of 700-hPa westerly zonal wind events, identified subjectively, are also shown in Fig. 9. It is

clear that the wind-based Hovmller diagrams are relatively insensitive to the particular level, with both 925 and 700 hPa showing similar patterns. The OLR Hovmller shows greater variability than those of zonal wind, both in time, and importantly, along a given longitude. These variations make identifying synopticscale variations from OLR data more difficult than from zonal wind variations, and they appear to reflect smaller longitudinal scales. We evaluated different options for identifying wet and dry days. Figure 10 shows the average wettest day wind field at 925 hPa, based on four criteria we used for selecting the wet and dry days. One criterion was based on maxima and minima in OLR, two used zonal wind anomalies at 700 hPa [one subjectively determined from Hovmller examination (see the example in Fig. 9) and one objectively determined], and one used objectively determined zonal wind anomalies at 925 hPa. The same domain was used for all criteria,

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FIG. 11. (a) Difference between cloud frequency for days with westerly wind anomalies and cloud frequency for days with easterly wind anomalies for years 19982005 during the period JanuaryApril. The cloudiness was quantified by using a temperature threshold of 38C. (b) As in (a), but only for JanuaryApril 1998. (c) As in (b), but for frequency differences between wet and dry days based on the Peruvian rainfall data. (d) As in (c), but for the one day after wet and dry days based on the Ecuadorean rainfall data.

from 2.5N7.5S to 8090W, though the subjective procedure used a slightly broader longitudinal band for evaluating zonal continuity of the anomalies. The important aspect of Fig. 10 is that all composites reproduce certain basic features of the wind field. The northerly winds over the western Gulf of Mexico, the cyclonic circulation near the east coast of the United States, and westerly winds over the equatorial eastern Pacific are common to all analyses, though the intensity and precise positions vary. Not surprisingly, the three

zonal wind-based composites tend to be more similar and to show stronger westerly wind anomalies along the equator than does the OLR-based composite. We chose to use the 700-hPa zonal wind as the index for developing our composites, with positive u-wind events being the equivalent of wet days and negative u anomalies being dry days. We adopt this terminology hereafter for ease of expression. However, it should be clearly stated that this index should be considered more an indication of westerly wind events over the domain

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FIG. 12. Hovmller diagram of the difference between OLR for days with westerly wind anomalies and OLR with easterly wind anomalies during the period JanuaryApril (left) 19902005 and (right) 1998. The evolution is from three days prior to three days after the westerly/easterly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The latitudinal extent ranges from 10S to 10N. An eastward propagation is evident.

of interest (coastal Ecuador and northern Peru) rather than a reliable indication of precipitation. In summary, to determine the specific dates of anomalous zonal wind events we restricted our comparison to the months of JanuaryApril (rainy season in northern coastal Peru) for the years 19902005 and generated Hovmller diagrams of 700-hPa zonal wind anomalies from the NCEP climatology, averaged over the latitude band of 2.5N7.5S. These were inspected to identify the dates of anomalous westerly wind events and anomalous easterly wind events at 85W. A total of 220 westerly wind events and 215 easterly wind events were identified over the 16 yr examined, though the selection was subjective and the events varied in intensity and duration. An average period was 9 days (1920 total days divided by 215 wet events), though there was considerable variation in the period between events. This average period is longer than that obtained from using the 1998 rainfall data (6 days). Without rainfall data for other years, and for more Ecuadorean stations as well, it is not possible to determine the source of this difference.

b. OLR- and GOES-based cloudiness for wet and dry days

Using the 700-hPa zonal wind criterion described in the previous section we can describe the satelliteobserved evolution of the wet spells (positive zonal wind events) along the coast of Ecuador and Peru. To this end we use the data discussed in section 2c.

1) WET

DAY CLOUDINESS FROM

GOES

IMAGERY

GOES-estimated cloudiness was quantified by determining the number of times a particular pixel was colder than 38C. This was done independently for each 3-hourly image, which were then summed to produce daily frequency values. These values were then averaged over all of the west wind events for the 8 yr. Figure 11a shows that enhanced cloudiness is concentrated south of Costa Rica, and extends to the Colombian coastline. The maximum anomaly is close to the mean position of the ITCZ cloudiness during the boreal winter (Wang et al. 2004). The result for 1998 is shown in Fig. 11b. The positive cloudiness anomalies are more

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FIG. 13. As in Fig. 12, but based on an index using OLR instead of zonal wind.

widespread and are larger, especially south of the equator. This is not surprising, since the higher sea surface temperatures south of the equator during 1998 favored more convection in this region than in other years. And, where the 8-yr mean cloudiness shows the western Amazon basin to have somewhat more frequent cloudiness during wet days, the opposite is seen in 1998. Cloud frequencies were also computed using the wet and dry days based on the Peruvian rainfall data. This produced Fig. 11c, which while showing a maximum over northern Peru, was considerably different from the wind-based composite in other areas. In particular, large differences are evident over southern Peru and most of Bolivia, and the frequencies are lower over the Pacific coast of Colombia and Ecuador. Using a rainfall index based on only the Ecuadorean rain gauges produced still different results, with the greatest frequency of cloudiness along the Ecuadorean coast apparent on the day after the wet day (Fig. 11d). It may be that the number of rain gauges is insufficient to provide a reliable indicator of wet events, or that the number of events is too small during one year for stable means to be obtained.

2) PROPAGATION
DATA

OF THE CLOUDINESS FROM

OLR

Hovmller diagrams of the OLR wet day minus dry day OLR values for both the 19902005 period and the 1998 period alone were constructed using the 700-hPa zonal wind features described in section 5a (Fig. 12). The most striking feature of each diagram is the eastward propagation of the OLR anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific. The 1998 anomalies appear somewhat more distinct than those of the multiyear mean, but the propagation velocity is similar (10 longitude day1 or 12 m s1). The wavelength estimated from successive positive or successive negative OLR anomalies in Fig. 12 is about 50006000 km. A Hovmller diagram of the OLR wet dry day differences, similar to Fig. 12 but based on a selection of 212 negative anomaly OLR days (wet days) and 200 positive anomaly days (dry days), is shown in Fig. 13. The eastward propagation of the OLR patterns is less obvious than in Fig. 12, but is still apparent in the 16-yr composite. However, there is an obvious nearly stationary aspect, strongest around day zero, and some evidence of a westward-propagating signal as well.

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FIG. 14. Difference between the mean wind field for days with westerly wind anomalies and the mean wind field for days with easterly wind anomalies during JanuaryApril 19902005. Wind fields based on daily NCEPNCAR reanalysis data for (a) 1000, (b) 850, (c) 700, (d) 500, and (e) 300 hPa. Westerly and easterly wind anomalies are determined from the 700-hPa wind field in the equatorial eastern Pacific (see text). Differences significant at the 95% level are shaded.

The differences between the zonal wind-based and OLR-based Hovmller diagrams are not easy to explain. It is possible that heavy, but localized, rainfall such as might occur along the coastal strip of northern Peru, might not be fully represented in the coarser resolution (2.5) OLR data. OLR variations often are associated with broad cirrus shields, and although these are generally indicative of convective precipitation in the tropics, such canopies can be extensive or relatively small depending on the strength of upper-level winds and the upper-tropospheric relative humidity. Synoptic-scale wind perturbations associated with tropical waves, of the spatial scale that can be resolved by the NCEP reanalyses, tend to have better time continuity

than their associated cloud fields, which are related to variations in the moisture field, static stability, and small variations in the vertical motion field. The data assimilation procedure used to produce the NCEP reanalyses also ensures a level of time continuity in the wind field that the OLR data, interpolated from an independent satellite dataset (Liebmann and Smith 1996), do not possess.

c. Vertical structure of the wet minus dry day wind fields

Figure 14 shows the vertical structure of the wet minus dry day mean wind field for the period 19902005 using the 700-hPa zonal wind index described in section

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FIG. 15. As in Fig. 14, but for JanuaryApril 1998.

5a. The most striking feature associated with wet days is the strong westerly wind anomaly in the lower troposphere along the equator, being strongest from 100 to 70W. This is not unexpected, since the compositing procedure was based on zonal anomalies over this region. The westerly anomaly is largest at the 850- and 700-hPa level, becoming notably weaker and more southwesterly by 500 hPa. The anomaly winds at 1000 hPa, while zonal on the equator, are strongly diffluent at the coast, with northwesterly wind anomalies along the Peruvian coast and southwesterly anomalies west of Colombia and extending over Panama. The anomalies along the Peruvian coast agree with the pilot balloon

observations (Fig. 5), however, major differences exist over Central America. Perhaps the most surprising result of the compositing procedure is the cyclonic vortex off the east coast of North America that tilts westward with height. Relatively strong northerly flow is present over the Gulf of Mexico at low levels. Taken together, the composite resembles an extratropical cyclone off the central east coast of the United States, with trailing cold frontal zone extending toward Central America. At higher levels (500 and 300 hPa) a wave train extends zonally across the entire domain at 3040N, with one cyclonic and two anticyclonic eddies evident at 300 hPa along 40N.

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FIG. 16. Evolution of the difference between the mean SLP for days with westerly wind anomalies and the mean SLP for days with easterly wind anomalies for JanuaryApril 19902005. Differences for (a) 3, (b) 2, (c) 1, (d) 0, (e) 1, and (f) 2 days about westerly/easterly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The contour interval is 0.5 hPa. Differences significant at the 95% level are shaded.

Figure 15 shows the same mean fields as Fig. 14, but for 1998. There are many similarities with the 16-yr mean, including 1) the westerly wind anomalies along the equator from 1000 to 700 hPa, 2) the cyclonic vortex off the U.S. east coast, 3) the cyclonic eddy/trough southwest of Peru over the southeastern Pacific (most evident at 850700 hPa), 4) the pronounced trough off the north Chilean coast at 300 hPa, and 5) the easterly flow at 300 hPa over the equatorial eastern Pacific near 90W. There are numerous differences, especially in

higher latitudes, but the overall impression is one of moderate agreement between the 1998 anomaly composite and the 16-yr mean composite. In fact, Takahashi (2004), using rainfall-based wet and dry days, found NCEP reanalysis wet minus dry day wind differences at 850 and 700 hPa that were quite similar to those shown in Fig. 15. This suggests that the synoptic-scale conditions associated with wet days in 1998, despite the strong El Nio conditions, may be generally similar to those associated with wet days during other years. It

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FIG. 17. Evolution of the difference between the mean 850-hPa wind field for days with westerly wind anomalies and the mean wind field for days with easterly wind anomalies during JanuaryApril 19902005. Evolution for (a) 3, (b) 2, (c) 1, (d) 0, (e) 1, and (f) 2 days about westerly/easterly wind anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Differences significant at the 95% level are shaded.

also indicates that our zonal wind-based compositing approach yields results similar to one based directly on the rainfall data.

pressure and 850- and 500-hPa wind evolutions; the latter only in the Northern Hemisphere. Also, 1998 analyses are shown only for 850 hPa, since the confidence is greater for the 16-yr means.

d. Evolution of the wet minus dry day anomalies

A natural extension of compositing the NCEP reanalyses to describe the wet day conditions is to composite days prior to and after the wet day. This was done from three days prior to the wet day to three days after the wet day. For brevity, we discuss only sea level

1) SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE EVOLUTION

The main feature in the evolution of sea level pressure (Fig. 16) is the strong extratropical signal over North America that moves eastward with time. The major tropical feature is the broad westeast gradient in

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FIG. 18. As in Fig. 17, but only for JanuaryApril 1998.

pressure, with positive anomalies over the Pacific and lower values over South America during days t 2 to t 0.

2) 850-HPA

WIND FIELD EVOLUTION

The equatorial eastern Pacific westerly wind anomalies (Fig. 17) seen on day t 0 are evident on both the day before and day after, reflecting the duration of the event and probably also the difficulty in assigning a precise time to these events from the NCEP analyses (Fig. 9). The largest extratropical changes are over North America, with southerly flow over the central United States and the Gulf of Mexico at t 3 be-

coming northerly at t 0. The amplitudes of the anomalies decay noticeably after t 1, and day t 3 is not shown, with only small-amplitude features being present. The 1998 wind field anomaly evolution at 850 hPa (Fig. 18) is qualitatively similar to the 16-yr mean, but differs in many details. Areas of agreement are the anticyclonic anomaly off the U.S. east coast on days prior to t 0 and the cyclonic vortex to its west. However, the position of this cyclonic vortex is somewhat east of the position in the 16-yr mean. The equatorial westerly wind anomalies from day t 1 to day t 1 are broadly similar in both composites. Given the small

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FIG. 19. Hovmller diagram of the difference between the mean wind field at 500 hPa for days with westerly wind anomalies and the mean wind field for days with easterly wind anomalies during JanuaryApril 19902005. Evolution is from three days prior to three days after the westerly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The latitudinal extent ranges from 10 to 45N. Differences significant at the 95% level are shaded.

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sample size for 1998 perhaps not much more can be made of the similarities. The clear link between extratropical waves of the Northern Hemisphere and the zonal west wind anomalies along the equator is provided by a Hovmller diagram of the 500-hPa wind anomalies for the 16-yr mean fields (Fig. 19). The wave train shown in Fig. 19 maintains its intensity until day t 0 and thereafter decays rapidly. It is not clear why the anomaly wind field should show a stronger correlation with days prior to the reference day, as opposed to days after. The westward propagation of the eddies is 10 m s1 (10 longitude day1 at 35N) and the wavelength is close to 5000 km, estimating from the positions of the cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation centers on day t 0.

6. Summary
Rain gauge measurements along the coast of northern Peru and the Pacific coast of Ecuador during the strong El Nio event of 1997/98 showed large variability on synoptic (1 week) time scales. With rain gauge observations serving to identify relatively wet and dry days over this region, pilot balloon observations, NCEP reanalyses, GOES infrared imagery, and OLR data were used to describe the characteristics of these wet and dry days. The 1998 results motivated an additional effort to evaluate the generality of the 1998 results to a longer period, from 1990 to 2005. The lack of rainfall data forced a different compositing approach, and the procedure selected used zonal wind anomalies at 700 hPa. The main results of our study are as follows: 1) Wet days along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador are associated locally with reduced southerly boundary layer flow and stronger than normal westerly winds extending at least 1000 km offshore and up to 4 km ASL. 2) Wet days are associated with enhanced cloudiness over the eastern Pacific. The 1998 El Nio event departed from this mean pattern with more cloudiness south of the equator. 3) Multiyear composites of NCEP reanalysis and OLR data suggest that extratropical waves crossing North America are associated with the near-equatorial enhanced cloudiness and positive zonal wind anomalies. Both the extratropical waves and the OLR patterns propagate eastward at 10 of longitude day1. Limitations of this study stem from the lack of multiyear daily rain gauge data from coastal Ecuador and northern Peru that could be used to improve the determination of wet and dry days. In this regard, Ecuador-

ean stations receive rainfall every year, whereas Peruvian stations may not, so the detection of synoptic variations in the rainfall data should be easier at Ecuadorean stations. Wind soundings from this region have been uncommon and sporadic, but it may be possible to develop daily indices from a mix of wind profiler, radiosonde, and pilot balloon observations that have been made in the region during the past two decades. In addition, it may be possible to relate surface wind variability over the ocean to coastal rainfall variations using satellite scatterometer data. Given the apparent relationship between the Northern Hemisphere synoptic-scale extratropical waves, which may be predictable to a week or more, and wind and rainfall variations along the Ecuadorean and north Peruvian coasts, this could be an area of fruitful research for the meteorological services of the region. Acknowledgments. The present work was supported by the NOAAs Office of Global Programs, during the early stages of the PACS-SONET project. PACSSONET funding was provided by the NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA University of Oklahoma Cooperative Agreement NA17RJ1227, U.S. Department of Commerce. The various program managers are thanked for their support of the 1998 special measurements. This study was initially started during a visit by one of the authors (NO) to NSSL and while one author (JB) was participating in a Research for Undergraduates activity supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant ATM-9820587. Antonio Rodriguez of INAMHI graciously provided the INAMHI rainfall data from Ecuador. Ken Knapp of NESDIS made the GOES imagery available for this work. Many observers made the observations used in this study and many others assisted in different aspects of the field work. Special thanks are due to the reviewers (Ken Takahashi and two anonymous reviewers) of this manuscript for encouraging us to explore in more detail some ideas that led to the expansion of this papers scope.
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