Lanworth CP19

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Page 1 of 16

WORLD CROP PRODUCTION

THOMSON REUTERS LANWORTH
2013/14 world corn production: 956 [912999] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA
2013/14 world soybean production: 283 [259300] million tons, 3 million tons below USDA
2013/14 world wheat production: 694 [670727] million tons, 4 million tons below USDA
Recent and expected warm and dry weather, field observations, and imagery lower 2013/14 US corn
and soybean production by 1-2% to 13,650 [12,40014,700] and 3,315 [3,1003,475] million bushels.
2013/14 US corn and soybean production could fall to Lanworths lower scenarios and greatly below
USDAs projections if warm and dry conditions intensify through August; a return to normal or cool
conditions would maintain yield and production near or above USDAs projections.
Excessive precipitation lowers 2013/14 China corn production by <1% to 216 [204218] million tons.
Warm weather and updated imagery in the Volga District lower 2013/14 Russia wheat production by
2% to 50.0 [46.553.5] million tons; total Russia wheat production could fall well below USDAs
projection should recently warm and dry conditions intensify in spring wheat production areas.
Favorable conditions raise 2013/14 Canada wheat production by 7% to 29.8 [28.131.2] million tons.
In this report Lanworth updates production outlooks for 2013/14 China, Ukraine, and US corn; Australia,
Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, and US wheat; US soybean; and Australia canola. Recent and expected warm
temperatures and/or precipitation extremes indicate moderately lower crop yield potential in China, the
Former Soviet Union, and the US. Continued warming and extreme precipitation in these Northern
Hemisphere regions could lower world corn, soybean, and wheat production well below USDAs projections.
However, long-term US weather forecasts calling for average to below average temperatures and average to
above average precipitation do not align consistently with recent weather. Uncertainty thus remains high for
US growing conditions during yield formation in July-August. Northern Hemisphere production will
nevertheless exceed last years under any forward weather scenario, as recent and expected temperatures
generally remain lower, and soil moisture remains higher, than last years anomalous levels. Outlooks for a
neutral ENSO and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole do not indicate elevated risk of widespread extreme
drought in Southern Hemisphere production areas such as preceded the 2012 harvest.

2013/14 CORN PRODUCTION

2013/14 China corn production: 216 [204218] million tons, down <1% from last report
2013/14 Ukraine corn production: 24.2 [22.030.5] million tons, unchanged from last report
2013/14 US corn production: 347 [315372] million tons, down 2% from last report
Variation in 2013/14 world corn supply depends primarily on July-August precipitation and temperature over
US production areas. Unexpectedly warm and dry weather in this region over the past two weeks lowers
Lanworths production estimate slightly, but uncertain weather outlooks maintain a wide range for potential
production. Relative to USDAs projections, small production losses are likely in Ukraine due to continued
warm conditions but may be offset by gains in China, despite excessively wet weather.

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Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Page 2 of 16

CHINA CORN PRODUCTION

Lanworth lowers 2013/14 China corn production slightly to 216 [204218] million tons following review of
weather and imagery. Recent and expected above average precipitation greatly lowers the probability of
extreme drought in key corn production areas but raises the probability of yield losses in the Northeast
region. Short-term weather forecasts call for above normal precipitation into late July. Should wet conditions
continue through August, China corn production could fall as low as 204 million tons. Despite this risk,
higher corn planted area combined with high soil moisture and rapid crop development imply record high
production under most forward weather scenarios.

Vegetation Index

Heilongjiang
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

2007-2011 mean
2012 (-2%)
2013 (-2%)
150

1Jun

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

Jilin

180

25Jul

210

240

10Sep

270

2007-2011 mean
2012 (0%)
2013 (0%)
150

180

25Jul

210

240

10Sep

270

1Jun

180

210

25Jul

240

10Sep

270

Henan

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

2007-2011 mean
2012 (0%)
2013 (+3%)

300 150

1Nov

Shandong

2007-2011 mean
2012 (+7%)
2013 (+2%)

300 150

1Nov

Inner Mongolia

1Jun

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

1Jun

180

210

25Jul

240

10Sep

270

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

2007-2011 mean
2012 (+2%)
2013 (+1%)

300 150

1Nov

1Jun

210

25Jul

240

270

10Sep

300

1Nov

Hebei

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

2007-2011 mean
2012 (-2%)
2013 (+3%)

300 150

1Nov

180

1Jun

180

210

25Jul

240

270

10Sep

300

1Nov

Figure 1: Crop vegetation density for China provinces accounting for 61% of potential corn production, 2013,
2012, and 2007-2011 average, with estimated or expected deviation of 2012 and 2013 corn yield from trend
shown in parenthesis. Crop vegetation density in 2013 is similar to that of 2012, when yields approached trend.

UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION

Lanworth holds 2013/14 Ukraine corn production unchanged at 24.2 [22.030.5] million tons. Temperatures
remain moderately above, and precipitation moderately below, normal. Production will fall near Lanworths
lower bound should July-August temperatures reach record levels set in 2010, while an unexpected shift to
decadal low temperatures would raise production to Lanworths upper bound.
UNITED STATES CORN PRODUCTION
Lanworth lowers its median 2013/14 US corn yield estimate by 1% to 156.5 [143.3165.8] bushels per acre
based on recent and expected warm and/or dry conditions, field observations in northern and central Iowa,
and early-season imagery. Temperatures during much of the past two weeks exceeded forecast levels across
US production areas, while precipitation fell 50-90% below normal. Forecasts remain variable but now
indicate warm temperatures in western production areas and normal temperatures in central and eastern
production areas over the next two weeks. Relatively dry conditions are expected to continue in Iowa,
Kansas, much of Missouri, and Nebraska through much of the next one to two weeks. Without aboveaverage precipitation during the final week of the month, precipitation this July could approach the
historically low levels set last year. Should they be sustained through August, warm and dry conditions could
combine to greatly lower production potential from Lanworths current estimates in Kansas (-75 million
bushels) and Nebraska (-140 million bushels), where soil moisture levels are only moderately higher than
last years lows.

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Lanworth CP19

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Iowa

Vegetation Index

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.33
150
1Jun
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.33

Illinois

2007-2011 mean
2008 (-3%)
2013 (-6%)
175

200

25Jul

225

250

10Sep

Nebraska

2007-2011 mean
2008 (+3%)
2013 (-3%)
150

1Jun

175

200

25Jul

Page 3 of 16

225

250

10Sep

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
275
1Nov300 150
1Jun
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
275
300 150
1Nov 1Jun

175

Indiana

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
2007-2011 mean
2008 (+7%)
0.4
2013 (-3%)
0.3
200
225
250
275
300 150
25Jul
10Sep
1Jun
1Nov

Minnesota

2007-2011 mean
2008 (0%)
2013 (-4%)
175

200

25Jul

225

250

10Sep

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
275
300 150
1Nov 1Jun

2007-2011 mean
2008 (0%)
2013 (+2%)
175

200

25Jul

225

250
10Sep

275

1Nov300

South Dakota

2007-2011 mean
2008 (0%)
2013 (-2%)
175

200
25Jul

225

250
10Sep

275

1Nov300

Figure 2: Corn vegetation density profiles for major producing US states, 2013, 2008, and 2007-2011 average,
with actual or expected deviation of 2008 and 2013 yield from trend shown in parenthesis. Corn yields fell near
trend in 2008 when delayed crop development was followed by below-trend summer temperatures. The 2008
yield deviations provide approximate upper bounds for the 2013 season under similarly supportive conditions.

Additional risk to Lanworths US corn yield estimate correlates with a shift to extreme warm and dry
conditions in Iowa (-185 million bushels) and Minnesota and Missouri (-60 to -65 million bushels each)
following delayed planting. Initial field observations in central and northern Iowa indicate potentially
significant yield losses due to poor planting conditions and establishment problems. USDAs Objective Yield
data from similar late planted seasons indicate that reductions from trend plant population density and ears
per plant could lower corn yield potential by as much as 4-5%. The Objective Yield data also indicate that,
under relatively warm and dry forward weather, ear weight reductions from trend could further lower Iowa
yield potential by as much as 10-15%. Ear weight losses as extreme as last year (20% or greater) appear
unlikely, however, due to gains in soil moisture since last year. Lanworths current estimates of yield losses in
Iowa, Minnesota, and western production states are partially offset by yield gains following due to increased
soil moisture and relatively moderate temperatures in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.
Given recent weather variation, lack of agreement between short- and long-term weather forecasts, and
extreme variability in summer weather following past cool and wet spring seasons, Lanworth continues to
assume equal probability of below-, near-, and above-trend temperature and precipitation after July.
Though a return to favorably cool temperatures cannot be ruled out, early-season imagery over corn
production areas sets likely upper limits to yield in states with extreme planting delays: Iowa, Minnesota,
Missouri, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, current yield
expectations set 2013/14 US corn production at 13,650 [12,40014,700] million bushels. The range indicates
substantial losses from USDAs 13,950 million bushels should warm and dry weather spread and/or
intensify, though normal or cool and wet weather could support production near or above USDAs projection.

2013/14 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

2013/14 US soybean production: 90.2 [84.294.5] million tons, down 1% from last report
As with corn, variation in 2013/14 world soybean supply depends primarily on July-August precipitation and
temperature over US production areas. Current outlooks for continued neutral ENSO conditions do not pose
extreme risk to USDAs South American soybean production outlooks.

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Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Page 4 of 16

UNITED STATES SOYBEAN PRODUCTION

Risks to Lanworths 2013/14 US soybean yield outlook are similar to those for corn. Initial field observations
confirm delayed canopy development across much of northern and central Iowa. Accounting for recent and
expected warm and/or dry weather and likely impacts on pod density and weights in Iowa, as implied by
USDAs Objective Yield data, lowers Lanworths soybean yield outlook by 1% to 42.9 [40.345.0] bushels per
acre. Taken with Lanworths planted area estimate, this yield range sets 2013/14 US soybean production at
3,315 [3,1003,475] million bushels. Achieving USDAs projected 3,420 million bushels would require
relatively wet conditions through the end of August.

2013/14 WHEAT PRODUCTION

2013/14 Australia wheat production: 25.1 [19.229.8] million tons, up <1% from last report
2013/14 Canada wheat production: 29.8 [28.131.2] million tons, up 7% from last report
2013/14 Kazakhstan wheat production: 17.0 [15.318.6] million tons, down 1% from last report
2013/14 Russia wheat production: 50.0 [46.553.5] million tons, down 2% from last report
2013/14 Ukraine wheat production: 18.7 [17.719.6] million tons, unchanged from last report
2013/14 US wheat production: 55.6 [51.759.1] million tons, up <1% from last report
Offsetting updates leave Lanworths 2013/14 world wheat production outlook nearly unchanged and 4
million tons lower than USDAs. Adverse planting conditions and current and expected weather imply small
reductions in Russia, Ukraine, and North America relative to USDAs expectations, partially offset by small
increases in Australia and Canada. Extreme warm and dry conditions in Russia spring wheat areas through
August could lower USDAs wheat projections by a substantial 7-8 million tons. Otherwise, risk is limited
unless dry conditions return to Australia through October or weather turns extremely warm and dry in most
spring wheat areas of Kazakhstan and the US over the next six weeks. Sufficiently wet and/or cool growing
conditions in Australia through October and in Canada, Kazakhstan, Russia, and/or the US through August
could raise production above USDAs current expectations.
AUSTRALIA WHEAT PRODUCTION
Lanworth raises 2013/14 Australia wheat production by <1% to 25.1 [19.229.8] million tons on the basis of
recent and expected weather. June precipitation was above average in the eastern wheat belt, and soil
moisture remains above average in Western Australia despite below average June precipitation. Short-term
weather forecasts call for continued wet conditions into mid-July across all major wheat regions while longterm forecasts favor persistence of a neutral ENSO and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole into late 2013,
increasing the chances of above-average rainfall. Should normal precipitation persist through AugustOctober, Australia wheat production could reach 29.8 million tons and the record level set in 2011/12. Some
risk remains that conditions could turn warm and dry and hold wheat production as low as 19.2 million tons.
CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION
Lanworth raises 2013/14 Canada wheat production by 7% to 29.8 [28.131.2] million tons. Temperatures,
precipitation, and soil moisture have ranged from average to moderately cool and wet during June-July
across core wheat production areas of Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. These favorable conditions will
support yield at 2.99 [2.863.10] tons per hectare, above last years 2.86 tons per hectare and likely above
the record 2.96 tons per hectare set two years ago.
In last months Principal Field Crop Areas, StatCan lowered its wheat planted area estimate by 2% to 10.6
million hectares. The reduction was in line with Lanworths expectation, though further reductions could
occur in StatCans September or November Production of Principal Field Crops reports or in other reports next
year. In Principal Field Crop Areas, StatCan noted that planting remained incomplete in some areas.
Lanworths estimate for Canada wheat plantings remains at 10.0 million hectares.
KAZAKHSTAN WHEAT PRODUCTION
Lanworth lowers 2013/14 Kazakhstan wheat production by 1% to 17.0 [15.318.6] million tons on the basis
of recent dryness across portions of the major production regions of Kostanay and North Kazakhstan.
Despite localized dry weather, above average soil moisture continues to support substantially higher

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Lanworth CP19

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Page 5 of 16

production than last years drought impacted 9.8 million tons. Should relatively normal precipitation and
cool temperatures persist through August, Kazakhstan wheat production could reach 18.6 million tons.

78
76

2013/14

0.7

2012/13

Vegetation Index

!"#$%"&'($)*+,*-").-*/$!"($)0$1.2*$3 4$

RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION

Lanworth lowers 2013/14 Russia wheat production by 2% to 50.0 [46.553.5] million tons. Updated imagery
and warm conditions indicate winter wheat productivity in the Volga District similar to last years low levels
(40% below the previous 5-year average). Accounting for these losses places 2013/14 Russia winter wheat
production at 28.9 [27.030.9] million tons, up 13% from last year. Despite gains in soil moisture following
last seasons severe drought, recent and expected warm and dry conditions maintain risk of substantial
spring wheat yield losses in the Siberian and Ural Districts should weather turn anomalously warm and dry
through August. Current weather outlooks indicate some risk that extreme warm weather will occur in this
region through the end of July, though precipitation outlooks are variable. As such, Lanworth maintains a
wide range for potential 2013/14 Russia spring wheat production at 21.0 [19.522.6] million tonsup 73%
from last years drought-impacted harvest.

74
72
70
68
66
64
50

75

100 125 150

175 200

5-*6&,&)"702/$8,-&'$)0$1.2*$3++4$

0.6
0.5
0.4

5-year mean
2012/13

0.3
0.2
100
10April

2013/14
150
1June

200
20July

250
10Sept

Figure 3: Average April/May-June maximum daily temperature and precipitation, 1985-2013, and crop
vegetation density, 2013, 2012, and 5-year average, in the Volga District. Weather and crop vegetation density in
2013 are very similar those of 2012, when winter wheat productivity fell nearly 40% below the previous 5-year
average. Winter wheat in the Volga District accounts for 9% of potential Russia wheat production.

UNITED STATES WHEAT PRODUCTION

Lanworth raises 2013/14 US all wheat production fractionally to 55.6 [51.759.1] million tons. USDAs July
Crop Production report raised 2013/14 US winter wheat production by 2% to 1,543 million bushels, 3% higher
than Lanworths estimated 1,500 million bushels. Most of the deviation occurs in Kansas, where Lanworths
estimate remains 40 million bushels lower than USDAs based on image analysis and assessment of
drought and freeze impacts in the western part of the state. Lanworth will continue to assess deviations from
USDAs yield and harvested area estimates through elevator surveys over the next few weeks. Lanworth
holds 2013/14 US spring wheat production largely unchanged at 541 million bushels, roughly 5% below
USDAs July estimate. In years when spring wheat planting was as delayed as this year in Montana and
North Dakota (1995, 1996, 1999, and 2002), final spring wheat yields fell near or below trend but never
above. Lanworth will assess spring wheat growing conditions and yield potential through updated weather,
imagery, fieldwork, and grain elevator surveys through August.

2013/14 AUSTRALIA CANOLA PRODUCTION

Lanworths 2013/14 Australia canola production estimate stands unchanged at 3.2 [2.73.7] million tons.
June precipitation was above average in eastern production states and soil moisture remains above average
in Western Australia despite below average June rainfall. Should adequate precipitation and cool
temperatures continue during flowering and pod fill in July-October, production could reach 3.7 million tons.
A return to dry conditions, however, could limit production to 2.7 million tons.

Signed on 07/18/2013 13:08:27 by ThomsonReuters

97,155

United States

97,379

1,000
1,250
12,200
6,100
14,000
4,500
1,600
750
2,800
8,700
950
3,450
10,200
950
3,900
3,950
1,500
5,900
950
2,400
4,200
6,129
96,324

1,020
1,350
12,325
6,150
13,800
4,200
1,650
650
2,600
8,450
950
3,100
10,150
900
3,440
4,000
1,500
6,440
970
2,400
4,150
6,129
87,375

695
1,010
12,250
6,030
13,700
3,950
1,530
530
2,390
8,330
795
3,300
9,100
820
3,460
3,650
1,000
5,300
960
1,550
3,300
3,725
89,500

970
1,020
11,900
5,900
13,500
4,200
1,500
740
2,470
8,200
900
3,250
9,800
880
3,600
3,680
1,100
5,300
880
2,100
3,250
4,360
87,358

990
1,082
12,098
5,955
13,345
3,701
1,529
620
2,310
7,946
896
2,931
9,742
822
2,981
3,765
1,015
6,018
881
1,630
3,226
3,875

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Harvested Area

123.4

178.0
133.0
105.0
99.0
137.0
96.0
68.0
173.0
133.0
165.0
165.0
75.0
142.0
117.0
122.0
123.0
132.0
101.0
85.0
130.0
121.0
136.2
156.5

156.5

162.2
139.7
177.3
170.7
172.1
119.8
148.4
148.1
156.5
165.2
149.3
130.4
167.6
106.3
112.3
171.5
132.6
137.8
131.2
89.6
149.6
138.8

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Yield
USDA
2013/14

160,613
151,128
2,144,862
1,016,400
2,296,046
443,274
226,836
91,895
361,490
1,312,378
133,810
382,162
1,632,868
87,388
334,663
645,826
134,619
829,331
115,534
146,051
482,769
537,861

LW
2013/14

10,780,296 13,950,000 13,667,805

123,710
134,330
1,286,250
596,970
1,876,900
379,200
104,040
91,690
317,870
1,374,450
131,175
247,500
1,292,200
95,940
422,120
448,950
132,000
535,300
81,600
201,500
399,300
507,301

USDA
2012/13

Production

Table 1: US corn planted area, harvested area, yield, and production estimates by state, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand acres, bushels per acre,
and thousand bushels.

710
1,420
12,800
6,250
14,200
4,700
1,650
540
2,650
8,750
820
3,600
10,000
860
3,600
3,900
1,460
6,150
1,040
1,850
4,350
5,855

Arkansas
Colorado
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Wisconsin
Other States

USDA
LW
USDA
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Planted Area

Lanworth CP19
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
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77,198

United States

77,728

3,400
9,400
5,250
9,500
3,950
1,600
1,110
1,900
6,800
1,920
5,700
4,800
1,700
4,400
4,550
560
4,800
1,360
1,680
3,348
78,028

3,280
9,225
5,250
9,475
4,100
1,500
1,160
2,100
7,300
2,150
5,350
4,900
1,650
4,575
4,600
590
4,525
1,400
1,550
3,348

USDA
LW
2013/14 2013/14

76,104

3,160
8,920
5,140
9,300
3,810
1,470
1,115
1,990
6,990
1,950
5,260
4,990
1,580
4,730
4,580
520
4,710
1,230
1,700
2,959

USDA
2012/13

76,918

3,350
9,350
5,230
9,430
3,890
1,590
1,080
1,890
6,720
1,900
5,640
4,750
1,680
4,360
4,530
550
4,750
1,330
1,670
3,228
77,194

3,238
9,181
5,240
9,421
4,026
1,488
1,122
2,091
7,224
2,122
5,269
4,857
1,620
4,534
4,586
580
4,487
1,357
1,539
3,214

USDA
LW
2013/14 2013/14

Harvested Area

39.6

43.0
43.0
43.5
44.5
22.0
40.0
46.0
43.0
43.0
45.0
29.5
41.5
39.0
34.0
45.0
48.0
30.0
38.0
41.5
39.2

USDA
2012/13

44.5

42.9

42.3
48.3
49.2
48.9
30.1
40.3
40.5
42.9
41.9
42.9
40.8
52.5
31.7
31.1
50.7
43.7
37.5
33.5
43.3
32.9

USDA
LW
2013/14 2013/14

Yield
USDA
2013/14

3,014,998 3,420,000

135,880
383,560
223,590
413,850
83,820
58,800
51,290
85,570
300,570
87,750
155,170
207,085
61,620
160,820
206,100
24,960
141,300
46,740
70,550
115,973

USDA
2012/13

Production

3,315,463

137,081
443,235
257,891
460,745
121,105
59,971
45,467
89,663
302,682
91,107
214,914
254,890
51,423
141,209
232,690
25,324
168,182
45,447
66,711
105,726

LW
2013/14

Table 2: US soybean planted area, harvested area, yield, and production estimates by state, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand acres, bushels per
acre, and thousand bushels.

3,200
9,050
5,150
9,350
4,000
1,480
1,130
2,000
7,050
1,970
5,400
5,050
1,590
4,750
4,600
530
4,750
1,260
1,710
3,178

Arkansas
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
South Dakota
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Other States

USDA
2012/13

Planted Area

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Wednesday, July 17, 2013
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710

Ohio

43,185

3,155

330

1,730

550
5,990

1,355

810

5,670

700

350

990

1,360

2,170

1,090

450

640

630

9,600

440

900

770

2,245

610

650

29,840

754

10

303

0
5,571

1,355

32

5,613

350

1,360

2,148

27

9,408

177

2,200

528

HRW

9,885

2,316

317

550
419

57

700

990

1,063

450

406

630

440

900

647

SRW
0

3,460

85

1,427

0
0

778

22

234

192

593

45

82

WW

LW 13/14 Area by Class

0.97
0.69
0.98
0.61
0.87
0.40
0.98
0.85
0.79
0.77

0.64
0.99
0.54
0.88
0.34
0.98
0.85
0.79
0.76

0.94

0.93

0.81

0.96

0.88

0.93

0.95

0.83

0.83

0.95

0.96

0.94

0.74

0.56

0.96

0.91

0.94

0.80

0.98

0.88

0.93

0.95

0.83

0.87

0.91

0.96

0.95

0.68

0.56

0.86

47.8

55.5

57.0

67.0

68.0
32.0

39.0

61.0

33.0

67.0

40.0

59.0

36.0

43.0

55.0

57.0

75.0

73.0

40.0

69.0

65.0

76.0

33.0

85.0

59.0

45.4

58.1

65.5

64.7

65.0
28.5

40.5

55.5

27.8

68.4

46.9

55.9

36.2

42.2

54.3

57.0

73.8

73.0

36.3

70.1

64.2

79.8

28.5

85.0

59.1

USDA
LW
2013/14 2013/14

LW
USDA
2013/14 2013/14
0.87

Yield

Harvest Fraction

144,763

18,337

110,010

31,220
68,400

33,220

43,830

108,260

46,530

15,470

51,420

39,860

88,200

52,150

23,940

45,000

37,960

290,230

29,430

55,250

57,440

47,650

28,900

32,950

LW
2013/14

1,543,095 1,500,420

137,430

15,960

112,560

33,320
64,000

25,350

48,800

115,500

45,560

12,800

54,870

41,760

92,450

53,350

21,660

44,250

42,340

328,000

29,670

53,300

55,480

49,500

28,900

36,285

USDA
2013/14

Production

754,103

15,090

550

19,252

0
63,612

33,220

1,753

107,177

15,470

39,860

87,318

1,304

284,425

13,211

46,697

24,999

165

HRW

537,970

126,539

17,604

31,220
4,788

1,083

46,530

51,420

50,846

23,940

28,575

37,960

29,430

55,250

32,785

SRW

209,161

3,947

183

90,758

0
0

42,077

882

16,425

5,805

44,229

953

3,902

WW

LW 2013/14 Prod. by Class

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Table 3: 2013/14 US winter wheat seeded area, harvested fraction, yield, and production estimates by state and class. Units are thousand acres, bushels per acre,
and thousand bushels.

42,697

330

Wisconsin

United States

1,710

Washington

3,147

560
5,900

Tennessee
Texas

Other States

1,200

810

South Dakota

Oregon

5,500

350

North Dakota

Oklahoma

990

North Carolina

1,450

410

Mississippi

Nebraska

620

Michigan

2,200

700

Kentucky

Montana

9,400

Kansas

1,100

470

Indiana

Missouri

850

Illinois

Colorado

770

2,200

California

Idaho

710

610

Arkansas

USDA
LW
2013/14 2013/14

Seeded Area

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2,123

United States

1,538

65
100
5
510
850
8
1,603

65
100
5
475
950
8
2,102

104
135
13
515
1,330
5
1,502

64
90
5
505
830
8
1,547

64
90
5
465
915
8

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Harvested Area

39.0

95.0
105.0
62.0
28.0
32.0
23.0
38.3

30.0
32.0

105.0
95.0

35.6

105.0
95.0
62.0
28.0
28.8
23.0

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Yield

81,956

9,880
14,175
806
14,420
42,560
115

USDA
2012/13

57,474

15,150
26,560

6,720
8,550

USDA
2013/14

Production

55,087

6,720
8,550
310
13,027
26,296
184

LW
2013/14

12,289

United States

12,295

19
550
1,200
2,850
8
5,700
100
1,400
18
450
11,920

19
550
1,350
2,850
8
5,375
100
1,200
18
450
12,055

12
500
1,310
2,900
2
5,700
93
1,020
13
505
11,958

17
530
1,100
2,800
3
5,600
97
1,350
16
445
11,494

17
530
1,315
2,770
3
5,143
97
1,158
16
445

45.0

89.0
76.0
57.0
33.0
70.0
45.0
62.0
41.0
40.0
55.0

45.0

49.0

41.0
69.0
41.0

77.0
53.0
35.0

42.9

89.0
77.0
53.0
32.7
70.0
38.6
69.0
48.4
40.0
49.0

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Yield

541,959

1,068
38,000
74,670
95,700
140
256,500
5,766
41,820
520
27,775

USDA
2012/13

512,921

21,805

229,600
6,693
55,350

40,810
58,300
98,000

USDA
2013/14

Production

486,370

1,513
40,810
69,684
90,510
210
198,518
6,693
55,988
640
21,805

LW
2013/14

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Table 5: US other spring wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production estimates by state, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand
acres, bushels per acre, and thousand bushels.

13
520
1,350
2,950
6
5,750
95
1,080
15
510

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

USDA
USDA
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Colorado
Idaho
Minnesota
Montana
Nevada
North Dakota
Oregon
South Dakota
Utah
Washington

Harvested Area

Planted Area

Table 4: US durum wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production estimates by state, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand acres,
bushels per acre, and thousand bushels.

105
140
13
520
1,340
5

Arizona
California
Idaho
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota

USDA
LW
USDA
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Planted Area

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Planted Area

Harvested Area

Yield

Production

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

USDA 2011/12

11,805 13,747 25,552

11,455 13,299 24,754

2.99

1.64

2.26

34,249

21,811 56,060

USDA 2012/13

11,842 12,843 24,685

11,051 10,245 21,296

2.31

1.19

1.77

25,527 12,192 37,719

LW 2013/14 Mean 12,699 12,900 25,599

11,776 12,170 23,946

2.46

1.73

2.09

28,939 21,034 49,973

Table 6: Comparative 2013/14 Russia wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousand
hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. USDA data from PSD and GAIN.

Planted Area

Harvested Area

Yield

Production

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

USDA 2011/12

3,544

6.44

22,838

USDA 2012/13

4,370

4.79

20,922

4,661

5.19

24,197

LW 2013/14 Mean

4,800

Table 7: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine corn planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousand
hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.

Planted Area

Harvested Area

Yield

Production

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

USDA 2011/12

6,657

3.32

22,124

USDA 2012/13

5,700

2.72

15,500

6,490

2.88

18,661

LW 2013/14 Mean

6,836

Table 8: Comparative 2013/14 Ukraine wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are thousand
hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons. Approximately 95% of Ukraine wheat is winter wheat.

Planted Area

Harvested Area

Yield

Production

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

Winter Spring Total

USDA 2011/12

13,686

1.66

22,732

USDA 2012/13

12,400

0.79

9,841

12,500

1.36

16,958

LW 2013/14 Mean

12,994

Table 9: Comparative 2013/14 Kazakhstan wheat planted area, harvested area, yield, and production. Units are
thousand hectares, tons per harvested hectare, and thousand tons.

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13,243

Australia Total

13,677

3,900
970
2,224
8
1,630
4,945

ABARES
2013/14

13,605

3,860
970
2,188
8
1,564
5,016

LW
2013/14

1.67

1.89
1.84
1.70
4.09
1.68
1.43

ABARES
2012/13

1.86

1.95
1.85
1.85
4.00
1.87
1.78

ABARES
2013/14

Yield

1.84

1.95
2.01
1.60
4.00
1.85
1.83

LW
2013/14

22,079

7,105
1,748
3,672
33
2,671
6,850

ABARES
2012/13

25,399

7,605
1,795
4,111
32
3,050
8,807

ABARES
2013/14

Production

25,069

7,536
1,948
3,501
32
2,898
9,154

LW
2013/14

9,631

Canada

10,594

2,825
1,406
463
5,789
110

StatCan
2013/14

9,986

2,715
1,140
457
5,566
108

LW
2013/14

9,498

2,608
1,194
368
5,237
91

StatCan
2012/13

StatCan
2013/14

9,951

2,716
1,198
451
5,482
105

LW
2013/14

Harvested Area

2.90

3.20
3.30
5.10
2.40
3.30

2.99

3.39
3.47
5.26
2.51
2.96

StatCan StatCan
LW
2012/13 2013/14 2013/14

Yield

27,205

8,369
3,923
1,883
12,727
303

StatCan
2012/13

StatCan
2013/14

Production

29,765

9,196
4,151
2,369
13,738
310

LW
2013/14

Table 11: Canada wheat harvested area, yield, and production estimates by province, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand hectares, tons per hectare, and
thousand tons. Production by class is 4 million tons (14%) winter wheat, 4.5 million tons (15%) durum wheat, and 21.2 million tons (71%) other spring wheat.

2,641
1,210
380
5,307
92

Alberta
Manitoba
Ontario
Saskatchewan
Other Provinces

StatCan
2012/13

Seeded Area

Table 10: Australia wheat harvested area, yield, and production estimates by province, 2012/13 and 2013/14. Units are thousand hectares, tons per hectare,
and thousand tons.

3,750
950
2,160
8
1,590
4,785

New South Wales

Queensland
South Australia
Tasmania
Victoria
Western Australia

ABARES
2012/13

Harvested Area

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33,542

China total

34,950

MOA
2012/13

36,331

907
875
551
802
3,234
5,181
3,242
632
3,125
3,327
2,205
1,213
3,115
1,851
1,409
1,537
903
2,221

LW
2013/14

5.75

4.43
5.07
4.32
3.09
5.40
5.83
5.61
5.02
6.11
7.46
6.37
4.67
6.60
5.19
5.15
4.25
7.11
5.69

MOA
2011/12

5.89

MOA
2012/13

Yield

5.95

4.37
5.02
4.79
5.52
5.64
5.89
5.90
5.27
6.26
7.07
6.55
5.44
6.99
5.39
5.35
4.16
7.22
5.86

LW
2013/14

192,781

3,626
4,256
2,447
2,437
16,396
26,758
16,965
2,762
16,321
23,390
13,603
5,507
19,787
8,546
7,016
5,982
5,177
11,805

MOA
2011/12

205,772

MOA
2012/13

Production

216,017

3,963
4,392
2,641
4,425
18,233
30,530
19,138
3,331
19,573
23,538
14,453
6,602
21,758
9,985
7,533
6,390
6,513
13,020

LW
2013/14

Table 12: China corn harvested area, yield, and production estimates by province, 2011/12, 2012/13, and 2013/14. Units are thousand hectares, tons per
hectare, and thousand tons.

819
839
566
788
3,036
4,587
3,025
550
2,670
3,134
2,135
1,178
2,996
1,647
1,363
1,409
728
2,074

Anhui
Gansu
Guangxi
Guizhou
Hebei
Heilongjiang
Henan
Hubei
Inner Mongolia
Jilin
Liaoning
Shaanxi
Shandong
Shanxi
Sichuan
Yunnan
Xinjiang
Other provinces

MOA
2011/12

Harvested Area

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116.62
123.57
18.53
18.53
54.04
60.89
13.41
12.01
-0.60
0.90
0.82
0.82
1.10
0.60
29.82

World - LW
World - WAOB

US - LW
US - WAOB

China - LW
China - WAOB

Brazil - LW
Brazil - WAOB

Argentina- LW
Argentina - WAOB

Ukraine - LW
Ukraine - WAOB

Paraguay - LW
Paraguay - WAOB

Other - WAOB

266.59

2.90
2.90

24.20
26.00

27.00
27.00

72.00
72.00

216.00
211.00

347.00
354.35

955.69
959.84

90.43

0.01
0.01

0.05
0.05

0.01
0.01

0.80
0.80

7.00
7.00

0.76
0.76

99.06
99.06

386.84

4.01
3.51

25.07
26.87

26.41
27.91

86.21
84.81

277.04
278.89

366.29
373.64

1,072.81
1,083.41

Total

211.51

0.40
0.40

7.00
7.00

5.30
5.30

46.00
46.00

156.00
156.00

130.82
130.82

557.03
557.03

Feed

2.40
2.40

0.40
0.40

16.65

16.50
16.50

1.60
1.60

133.11

18.50
18.50

18.00
18.00

0.05
0.05

31.75
31.75

103.85
103.85

Exports

3.00
3.00

8.00
8.00

68.00
68.00

161.29
161.29

375.40
375.40

Other
Domestic

Use

361.27

3.20
3.20

25.10
25.10

26.80
26.80

72.00
72.00

224.05
224.05

323.86
323.86

932.43
932.43

Total

30.36

0.81
0.31

-0.03
1.77

-0.39
1.11

14.21
12.81

52.99
54.84

42.43
49.77

140.38
150.97

8%

25%
10%

0%
7%

-1%
4%

20%
18%

24%
24%

13%
15%

15%
16%

Balance
Ending
Stocks/use
stocks

Table 13: 2013/14 world corn supply and use (million tons). Lanworth estimates are boldface. WAOB estimates are from the July WASDE and PSD.

Beginning
stocks

Region

Supply
ProducImports
tion

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59.71
61.52
3.39
3.39
18.01
18.60
23.25
24.45
0.00
0.87
14.21

World - LW
World - WAOB

US - LW
US - WAOB

Brazil - LW
Brazil - WAOB

Argentina- LW
Argentina - WAOB

Paraguay - LW
Paraguay - WAOB

Other - WAOB

45.91

8.40
8.40

53.50
53.50

85.00
85.00

90.20
93.08

283.01
285.89

103.97

0.02
0.02

0.00
0.00

0.05
0.05

0.41
0.41

104.45
104.45

164.09

8.42
9.29

76.75
77.95

103.06
103.65

94.00
96.88

341.87
347.41

Total

115.04

3.30
3.30

38.00
38.00

37.00
37.00

46.13
46.13

239.47
239.47

Crush

22.70

0.13
0.13

1.68
1.68

3.30
3.30

3.25
3.25

31.06
31.06

Other
Domestic

Use

9.25

5.00
5.00

12.00
12.00

41.50
41.50

39.46
39.46

107.21
107.21

Exports

146.99

8.43
8.43

51.68
51.68

81.80
81.80

88.84
88.84

273.29
273.29

Total

17.10

-0.01
0.86

25.07
26.27

21.26
21.85

5.16
8.04

68.58
74.12

12%

0%
10%

49%
51%

26%
27%

6%
9%

25%
27%

Balance
Ending
Stocks/use
stocks

Table 14: 2013/14 world soybean supply and use (million tons). Lanworth estimates are boldface. WAOB estimates are from the July WASDE.

Beginning
stocks

Region

Supply
ProducImports
tion

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19.55
19.55
5.27
5.27
4.91
4.91
3.42
3.42
2.22
2.22
2.93
2.93

US - LW

US - WAOB

Russia - LW

Russia - WAOB

Canada - LW

Canada - WAOB

Australia - LW
Australia - WAOB

Ukraine - LW
Ukraine - WAOB

Kazakhstan - LW
Kazakhstan - WAOB
497.78

17.00
14.50

18.70
19.50

25.10
25.50

29.00

29.80

54.00

50.00

57.52

55.60

697.80

693.98

Production

141.30

0.01
0.01

0.10
0.10

0.12
0.12

0.49

0.49

0.50

0.50

3.54

3.54

146.06

146.06

Imports

775.25

19.94
17.44

21.02
21.82

28.64
29.04

34.40

35.20

59.77

55.77

80.61

78.69

872.27

868.45

Total

102.48

2.40
2.40

3.50
3.50

3.70
3.70

4.50

4.50

14.50

14.50

7.62

7.62

138.70

138.70

Domestic
Feed

489.78

4.80
4.80

8.00
8.00

3.35
3.35

5.20

5.20

22.00

21.65

28.06

27.71

561.19

560.49

Other
Domestic

Use

49.37

7.00
7.00

8.00
8.00

19.00
19.00

19.50

19.50

17.00

17.00

29.26

29.26

149.13

149.13

Exports

641.63

14.20
14.20

19.50
19.50

26.05
26.05

29.20

29.20

53.50

53.15

64.94

64.59

699.89

699.19

Total

136.68

5.74
3.24

1.52
2.32

2.59
2.99

5.20

6.00

6.27

2.62

15.68

14.10

172.38

169.26

21%

40%
23%

8%
12%

10%
11%

18%

21%

12%

5%

24%

22%

25%

24%

Stocks/use

Balance
Ending
stocks

Table 15: 2013/14 world wheat supply and use (million tons). Lanworth estimates are boldface. WAOB estimates are from the July WASDE.

136.17

174.47

World - WAOB

Other - WAOB

174.47

Beginning
stocks

World - LW

Region

Supply

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Lanworth CP19

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Page 16 of 16

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