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Greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gas
A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.[1] The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. In the Solar System, the atmospheres of Venus, Mars, and Titan also contain gases that cause greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases greatly affect the temperature of the Earth; without them, Earth's surface would be on average about 33C (59F)[2] colder than at present.[3] [4] [5]

Simple diagram of greenhouse effect.

Since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 390ppm, despite the uptake of a large portion of the emissions through various natural "sinks" involved in the carbon cycle.[6] [7] Carbon dioxide emissions come from combustion of carbonaceous fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. CO2 is a product of ideal, stoichiometric combustion of carbon, although few combustion processes are ideal, and burning coal for example, also produces carbon monoxide.[8] Since 2000 fossil fuel related carbon emissions have equaled or exceeded the IPCC's "A2 scenario", except for small dips during two global recessions.[9] [10] [11]

Gases in Earth's atmosphere


Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gas

Greenhouse gases are those that can absorb and emit infrared radiation. [1] In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are: water vapor carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide ozone

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are determined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the Atmospheric absorption and scattering at atmosphere by conversion to a different chemical compound.[12] The different electromagnetic wavelengths. The proportion of an emission (e.g. CO2) remaining in the atmosphere after largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the a specified time is the "Airborne fraction". More precisely, the annual infrared. AF is the ratio of the atmospheric CO2 increase in a given year to that years total emissions, and calculate that of the average 9.1 PgC y1 of total anthropogenic emissions from 2000 to 2006, the AF was 0.45. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (19562006) has been increasing at 0.25 0.21%/year.[13]

Non-greenhouse gases
Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions, the major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is because molecules containing two atoms of the same element such as N2 and O2 and monatomic molecules such as Ar have no net change in their dipole moment when they vibrate and hence are almost totally unaffected by infrared light. Although molecules containing two atoms of different elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl) absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. Because they do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect they are usually omitted when discussing greenhouse gases.

Non-greenhouse gases that have an indirect radiative effect


Carbon monoxide has an indirect radiative effect by elevating concentrations of methane and tropospheric ozone through scavenging of atmospheric constituents (e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH) that would otherwise destroy them. Carbon monoxide is created when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely. Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide has an atmospheric lifetime of only a few months[14] and as a consequence is spatially more variable than longer-lived gases.

MOPITT 2000 global carbon monoxide.

Greenhouse gas

Substances other than gases that contribute to Earth's greenhouse effect


The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the greenhouse gases.[15] [16]

Impact of a given gas on climate sensitivity


Each gases' contribution to the greenhouse effect is affected by the characteristics of the gas, its abundance, and any indirect effects it may cause. For example, on a molecule-for-molecule basis the direct radiative effects of methane is about 72 times stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over a 20 year time frame[17] but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is smaller. On the other hand, in addition to its direct radiative impact methane has a large indirect radiative effect because it contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. (2005)[18] argue that the contribution to climate change from methane is at least double previous estimates as a result of this effect.[19] When these gases are ranked by their direct contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:[15]
Gas Formula Contribution (%) H2O CO2 CH4 O3 36 72 % 9 26 % 49% 37%

Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone

In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small quantities.[20]

Proportion of direct effects at a given moment


It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[15] [16] In addition, some gasses such as methane are known to have large indirect effects that are still being quantified.[21]

Atmospheric lifetime
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[22] major greenhouse gases are well-mixed, and take many years to leave the atmosphere.[23] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)[24] defines the lifetime of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically can be defined as the ratio of the mass (in kg) of X in the box to its removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box ( X( ) (all in kg/sec):
[24]

), chemical loss of X (

), and deposition of

The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following an increase in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime. The atmospheric lifetime of

Greenhouse gas CO2 is often incorrectly stated to be only a few years because that is the average time for any CO2 molecule to stay in the atmosphere before being removed by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, or other processes. However, this ignores the balancing fluxes of CO2 into the atmosphere from the other reservoirs. It is the net concentration changes of the various greenhouse gases by all sources and sinks that determines atmospheric lifetime, not just the removal processes.

Global warming potential


The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO2 and evaluated for a specific timescale. Thus, if a gas has a high radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20 year scale but a small one on a 100 year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO2 its GWP will increase with the timescale considered. Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.[25] Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of thousands of years.[26] [27] Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods. Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 3 years and a GWP of 72 over 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the following table:[17]

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.
Gas name Chemical formula CO2 CH4 N2O CCl2F2 CHClF2 CF4 C2F6 SF6 NF3 Lifetime (years) See above 12 114 100 12 50 000 10 000 3 200 740 Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon 20-yr 1 72 289 11 000 5 160 5 210 8 630 16 300 12 300 100-yr 1 25 298 10 900 1 810 7 390 12 200 22 800 17 200 500-yr 1 7.6 153 5 200 549 11 200 18 200 32 600 20 700

Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide CFC-12 HCFC-22 Tetrafluoromethane Hexafluoroethane Sulphur hexafluoride Nitrogen trifluoride

The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.[28] The phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.[29]

Greenhouse gas

Natural and anthropogenic sources


Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly constant. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.[30] [31] The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century".[32] In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.

400,000 years of ice core data.

Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured in the atmosphere and reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

Gas Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide CFC-12

Preindustrial level 280 ppm 700 ppb 270 ppb 0

Current level 388 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 533 ppt

Increase since 1750 108 ppm 1045 ppb 44 ppb 533 ppt

Radiative forcing (W/m2) 1.46 0.48 0.15 0.17

Ice cores provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 800,000 years. Both CO2 and CH4 vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record which indicates CO2 mole fractions staying within a range of between 180ppm and 280ppm throughout the last 800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now.[33] Indeed higher CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four

Greenhouse gas to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma.[34] [35] [36] The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of CO2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.[37] Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing which raised the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as limestone at the rate of about 1mm per day.[38] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.[38] [39]

Anthropogenic greenhouse gases


Since about 1750 human activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.[40] Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity,[41] but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks, mainly photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. As a result of this balance, the atmospheric mole fraction of carbon dioxide remained between 260 and 280 parts per million for the 10,000 years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the industrial era.[42]

Modern global anthropogenic carbon emissions.

It is likely that anthropogenic warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. Warming is projected to affect various issues such as freshwater resources, industry, food and health.[43] The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:

Greenhouse gas

burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. Land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) account for up to one third of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[42] livestock enteric fermentation and manure management,[44] paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and covered vented landfill emissions leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane. use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes. agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations.
Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions broken down into 8 different sectors for the year 2000.

Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000 including land-use change.

The seven sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 20002004):[45]

Greenhouse gas

Seven main fossil fuel combustion sources Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil) Solid fuels (e.g., coal) Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas) Cement production Flaring gas industrially and at wells Non-fuel hydrocarbons "International bunker fuels" of transport not included in national inventories

Contribution (%) 36 % 35 % 20 % 3% <1% <1% 4%

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranks the major greenhouse gas contributing end-user sectors in the following order: industrial, transportation, residential, commercial and agricultural.[46] Major sources of an individual's greenhouse gas include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and transportation. Corresponding conservation measures are improving home building insulation, installing geothermal heat pumps and compact fluorescent lamps, and choosing energy-efficient vehicles. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs) are the major greenhouse gases and the subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005.[47] Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media. On December 7, 2009, the US Environmental Protection Agency released its final findings on greenhouse gases, declaring that "greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people". The finding applied to the same "six key well-mixed greenhouse gases" named in the Kyoto Protocol: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.[48] [49]

Role of water vapor


Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds.[16] Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not significantly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales, such as near irrigated fields. The atmospheric concentration of vapor is highly variable, from less than 0.01% in extremely cold regions up to 20% in warm, humid regions.[50]

Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere at Boulder, Colorado.

The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and CO2. Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of

Greenhouse gas the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. Eventually other earth processes offset these positive feedbacks, stabilizing the global temperature at a new equilibrium and preventing the loss of earth's water through a Venus-like runaway greenhouse effect.[51]

Atmospheric concentration
Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial emissions started atmospheric CO2 mole fractions were about 280 parts per million (ppm), and stayed between 260 and 280 during the preceding ten thousand years.[52] Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago,[53] though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO2 variability.[54] [55] Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased. For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased from 280ppm by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern pre-industrial levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial Revolution to around 1973; however the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.[56] Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.[57] The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.

Relevant to radiative forcing


Gas Current (1998) Amount by volume Increase Increase (absolute, ppm) (relative, %) over pre-industrial (1750) over pre-industrial (1750) 87 ppm (105 ppm, 2007.01) 1045 ppb 44 ppb 31 % (38 %, 2007.01) 150 % 16 % Radiative forcing (W/m2) 1.46 (~1.53, 2007.01) 0.48 0.15

Carbon dioxide

365 ppm (383 ppm, 2007.01) 1745 ppb 314 ppb

Methane Nitrous oxide

Greenhouse gas

10

Relevant to both radiative forcing and ozone depletion; all of the following have no natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
Gas Current (1998) Amount by volume Radiative forcing (W/m2) 0.07 0.17 0.03 0.01 0.03

CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 Carbon tetrachloride HCFC-22

268 ppt 533 ppt 84 ppt 102 ppt 69 ppt

(Source: IPCC radiative forcing report 1994 updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1[58] [59] ).

Greenhouse gas emissions ("sources")


At present, the two primary sources of CO2 emissions are from burning coal used for electricity generation and petroleum used for motor transport.

Recent year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO2.

Regional and national attribution of emissions


There are several different ways of measuring GHG emissions (see World Bank (2010, p.362) for a table of national emissions data).[60] Some variables that reported[61] include: have been

Definition of measurement boundaries. Emissions can be attributed geographically, to the area where they were emitted (the territory principle) or by the activity principle to the territory that caused the emissions to be produced. These two principles would result in Major greenhouse gas trends. different totals when measuring for example the importation of electricity from one country to another or the emissions at an international airport.

Greenhouse gas The time horizon of different GHGs. Contribution of a given GHG is reported as a CO2 equivalent; the calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always known accurately and calculations must be regularly updated to take into account new information. What sectors are included in the calculation (e.g. energy industries, industrical processes, agriculture etc.). There is often a conflict between transparency and availability of data. The measurement protocol itself. This may be via direct measurement or estimation; the four main methods are the emission factor-based method, the mass balance method, the predictive emissions monitoring system and the continuing emissions monitoring systems. The methods differ in accuracy, but also in cost and usability. The different measures are sometimes used by different countries in asserting various policy/ethical positions to do with climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p.94).[62] This use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.[61] Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs (IEA, 2007, p.199).[63] The national accounts balance would be positively related to carbon emissions. The national accounts balance shows the difference between exports and imports. For many richer nations, such as the United States, the accounts balance is negative because more goods are imported than they are exported. This is mostly due to the fact that it is cheaper to produce goods outside of developed countries, leading the economies of developed countries to become increasingly dependent on services and not goods. We believed that a positive accounts balance would means that more production was occurring in a country, so more factories working would increase carbon emission levels.(Holtz-Eakin, 1995, pp.;85;101).[64] Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995) (Grubb, 2003, pp.146,149).[65] A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year. Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population (World Bank, 2010, p.370). Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri et al., 1996, pp.106107).

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Greenhouse gas intensity and land-use change


The figure opposite is based on data from the World Resources Institute, and shows a measurement of GHG emissions for the year 2000 according to greenhouse gas intensity and land-use change. Herzog et al. (2006, p.3) defined greenhouse gas intensity as GHG emissions divided by economic output.[66] GHG intensities are subject to uncertainty over whether they are calculated using market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing

Greenhouse gas intensity in 2000 including land-use change.

Greenhouse gas power parity (PPP) (Banuri et al., 1996, p.96).[62] Calculations based on MER suggest large differences in intensities between developed and developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences. Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.[67] Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure net emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all GHG sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp.9293). There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.[68] Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p.93). For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.

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Cumulative and historical emissions Top-5 historic CO2 contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)
Region Industrial Total CO2 CO2 33.2 26.1 14.1 5.5 5.5 29.7 16.6 12.5 6.0 4.8

OECD North America OECD Europe Former USSR China Eastern Europe

The table above is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p.94).[62] Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions. The estimate of total CO2 emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p.94) calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countries and developing countries was estimated to be more than 10 to 1. Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp.9394). The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by how carbon sinks are allocated between regions (an equity consideration), and the dynamics of the climate system. The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007, p.201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries and regions.[63] Over the time period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%; and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.

Greenhouse gas

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Changes since a particular base year


In total, Annex I Parties managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p.11).[69] Annex I Parties are those countries listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC, and are the industrialized countries. For non-Annex I Parties, emissions in several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly over this period (PBL, 2009).[70] The sharp acceleration in CO2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported.[45] In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N2O by 0.25% y1.

Annual and per capita emissions


At the present time, total annual emissions of GHGs are rising (Rogner et al., 2007).[71] Between the period 1970 to 2004, emissions increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year, with CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per year. Today, the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. million tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock. This increase is the result of human activities by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and boreal regions.[72] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries (Grubb, 2003, p.144).[65] Due to China's fast economic development, its per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (PBL, 2009).[73] Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia. On the other hand, per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the USA are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p.24).[74] Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's annual emissions in 2008, PBL (2008) estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.

Greenhouse gas

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Top emitters
In 2005, the world's top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See notes for the following table).[75] Tabulated below are the top-5 emitters for the year 2005 (MNP, 2007).[76] The second column is the country's or region's share of the global total of annual emissions. The third column is the country's or region's average annual per capita emissions, in tonnes of GHG per head of population:

Top-5 emitters for the year 2005


Country or region % of global total annual emissions Tonnes of GHG per capita 5.8 24.1 10.6 12.9 2.1

Chinab United Statesa European Union-27a Indonesiac India Table footnotes:

17 % 16 % 11 % 6% 5%

These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6). These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not included.

a b c

Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC. Excluding underground fires. Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty

range is very large.

Embedded emissions
One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as "embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production, rather than consumption (Helm et al., 2007, p.3).[77] Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing country, rather than the exporting, country. Davis and Caldeira (2010, p.4) found that a substantial proportion of CO2 emissions are traded internationally.[78] The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO2 per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US (22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6) (Davis and Caldeira, 2010, p.5).

Greenhouse gas

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Effect of policy
Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions (mitigation of climate change).[71] They concluded that mitigation policies undertaken by UNFCCC Parties were inadequate to reverse the trend of increasing GHG emissions. The impacts of population growth, economic development, technological investment, and consumption had overwhelmed improvements in energy intensities and efforts to decarbonize (energy intensity is a country's total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP (Rogner et al., 2007).[79] TPES is a measure of commercial energy consumption (World Bank, 2010, p.371)).[60]

Projections
Based on then-current energy policies, Rogner et al. (2007) projected that energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 40-110% higher than in 2000.[71] Two-thirds of this increase was projected to come from non-Annex I countries. Per capita emissions in Annex I countries were still projected to remain substantially higher than per capita emissions in non-Annex I countries. Projections consistently showed a 25-90% increase in the Kyoto gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) compared to 2000. IEA (2007, p.199) estimated future cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries.[63] Their reference scenario projected cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between the years 1900 and 2030. In this scenario, Chinas share of cumulative emissions rises to 16%, approaching that of the United States (25%) and the European Union (18%). Indias cumulative emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%).

Relative CO2 emission from various fuels


One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces 2.32 kg (1.3 cubic meters) of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. One US gallon produces 19.4lb (172.65 cubic feet)[80] [81] [82]

Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels[83]
Fuel name CO2 CO2 emitted emitted (lbs/106 Btu) (g/106 J) 117 139 139 153 156 159 161 189 195 205 213 215 225 227 50.30 59.76 59.76 65.78 67.07 68.36 69.22 81.26 83.83 88.13 91.57 92.43 96.73 97.59

Natural gas Liquefied petroleum gas Propane Aviation gasoline Automobile gasoline Kerosene Fuel oil Tires/tire derived fuel Wood and wood waste Coal (bituminous) Coal (subbituminous) Coal (lignite) Petroleum coke Coal (anthracite)

Greenhouse gas

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Removal from the atmosphere ("sinks")


Natural processes
Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of: a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere). a chemical reactions within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally occurring hydroxyl radical, OH and degraded to CO2 and water vapor (CO2 from the oxidation of methane is not included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols. a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans. a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the case for CO2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification). a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl and F as free radicals in the stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction in the atmosphere).

Negative emissions
There are a number of technologies that remove emissions of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Most widely analysed are those which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage[84] [85] [86] and carbon dioxide air capture,[86] or to the soil as in the case with biochar.[86] It has been pointed out by the IPCC, that many long-term climate scenario models require large scale manmade negative emissions in order to avoid serious climate change.[87]

History of scientific research


Late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2 do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation") while, at the contrary, water, as true vapour or condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds, CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. It was recognized in the early 20th century that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused the Earth's overall temperature to be higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus has evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and human health.[88]

Notes
[1] "IPCC AR4 SYR Appendix Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_appendix. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 14 December 2008. [2] Note that the greenhouse effect produces a temperature increase of about 33 C (59 F) with respect to black body predictions and not a surface temperature of 33 C (91 F) which is 32 F higher. The average surface temperature is about 14 C (57 F). [3] Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003). "Modern Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 302/ 5651/ 1719). Science 302 (5651): 171923. doi:10.1126/science.1090228. PMID14657489. . [4] Le Treut H, Somerville R, Cubasch U, Ding Y, Mauritzen C, Mokssit A, Peterson T and Prather M (2007) (PDF). Historical Overview of Climate Change Science In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL, editors) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf). Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 14 December 2008. [5] "NASA Science Mission Directorate article on the water cycle" (http:/ / nasascience. nasa. gov/ earth-science/ oceanography/ ocean-earth-system/ ocean-water-cycle). Nasascience.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.

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References External links


Greenhouse gas (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Global_Change//) at the Open Directory Project The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/aggi/) Atmospheric spectra of GHGs and other trace gases (http://www.spectralcalc.com/) Greenhouse Gases (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html) Sources, Levels, Study results University of Michigan; eia.doe.gov findings How Much Greenhouse Gas Does the United States Emit? (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/ greenhouse_gas.cfm) Grist article on convenient summary from various sources incl IPCC of greenhouse gas emissions (http:// gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/11/192838/298) * * Convenient summary of Greenhouse gas emissions (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ ccc?key=pzrff2j0rl2wNrQfxOKkYYQ) Greenhouse Gases (http://www.lakescientist.com/learn-about-lakes/lakes-climate-change/ lakes-and-greenhouse-gases.html) Carbon dioxide emissions

Greenhouse gas Carbon Emissions World Map in 2009 (http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2011/02/ 10/CarbonWeb.pdf) Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton, The Guardian February 2011 Eddy covariance International Energy Annual: Reserves (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/res.html) International Energy Annual 2003: Carbon Dioxide Emissions (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon. html) International Energy Annual 2003: Notes and Sources for Table H.1co2 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/ Notes for Table H_1co2.html) (Metric tons of carbon dioxide can be converted to metric tons of carbon equivalent by multiplying by 12/44) Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/ eddy_covariance/book.jsp) Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) (NOAA) NOAA Paleoclimatology Program Vostok Ice Core (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/ vostok/vostok.html) NOAA CMDL CCGG Interactive Atmospheric Data Visualization (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/ ) NOAA CO2 data Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre FAQ (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html) Includes links to Carbon Dioxide statistics Little Green Data Book 2007 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDATASTA/64199955-1178226923002/ 21322619/LGDB2007.pdf), World Bank. Lists CO2 statistics by country, including per capita and by country income class. Database of carbon emissions of power plants (http://www.carma.org/) NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/) The Carbon Bag: the carbon dioxide emission of a typical British home (http://zeroemissionproject.com/blog/ article/53/my-carbon-bag), Zero Emission Project Methane emissions Eddy covariance BBC News Thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more methane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/ nature/5321046.stm) Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/ eddy_covariance/book.jsp)

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Article Sources and Contributors

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Article Sources and Contributors


Greenhouse gas Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=442049045 Contributors: -Midorihana-, 1966batfan, 21655, 2over0, 85xtracab, A Train, A3RO, A8UDI, AP3 10, ARUNKUMAR P.R, Abcd2357, Abirchow, AcePilot101, Actw, Adsrikanth, Aetheling, Agathman, AgentPeppermint, Aitias, Akaanontyo, Alan Liefting, Alansohn, Ale jrb, Aleenf1, Alessandro57, Alexandra-McGhie, Alexf, Alister Kinkaid, Altermike, Amberroom, Amcbride, Andreaphill, Andres, Andrewjlockley, AngelOfSadness, Animaly2k2, Animum, AnnuitSophia, Antandrus, Anthere, Antilived, Antiuser, Antonio Lopez, Anttss24, Apdency, Armored Saint, Arnoldlover, Artymis, Atmoz, AubreyEllenShomo, AuburnPilot, Aude, Autopilot, Avoided, Avrau, Awickert, AxelBoldt, Ayanoa, B. 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Ingham, Dawnseeker2000, Dbfirs, DeadEyeArrow, Debresser, Deglr6328, Deli nk, Delldot, DerechoReguerraz, Derumi, Dfrg.msc, Differo, DigitalCatalyst, Diligent Terrier, Dina, Dionisiofranca, DirkvdM, Discospinster, Dlary, Doczilla, DoomsDay349, Dothefandango, Douzzer, Download, Dragons flight, Drf5n, Drilnoth, Driving and Crying, Dtwilliams14, DubaiTerminator, Dubc0724, Duffman, Duk, Duncan.france, Duncharris, ERhaught, ESkog, EarlKillian, Ecoconservant, Ecoone, Ed Poor, Edgar181, Edufur, Edward, Eklynsmith, Ekotekk, Electron9, Elekhh, Eleven even, Ellmist, Emx, Enescot, Enveconmatt, Enviroboy, Epastore, Epbr123, Equendil, Equine-man, Eric-Wester, Erockrph, Escape Orbit, Esnascosta, Euryalus, Eve Hall, Everyking, Evil saltine, Evolauxia, Exander, Excirial, Ezbreezy08, Fabartus, Falcon8765, Fangchen, Fanghong, Fat bicuit, Father McKenzie, Fchristo, Fred Bauder, Freewikidata, Frymaster, Funnyduds, Fuzheado, Gaius Cornelius, Garrisonroo, Gary King, GcSwRhIc, Gene Nygaard, Genessebro, Geni, 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Jlglex, Jmj45, Jocke 337, Joffer, John, Jojhutton, JonGwynne, JonHarder, Jonathan.s.kt, Jonkerz, Jonpro, Jorfer, JorisvS, Joseph Solis in Australia, Jpoelma13, Jrockley, Jsc83, Jscheng, Junyor, Juracule, Jusdafax, Justin Eiler, K, K50 Dude, KGasso, KLLvr283, KVDP, Kaiserkarl13, Kamikazetackle, Kapitel67, Katalaveno, Katita621, Keilana, Kelisi, Ketemisis, Kevinp2, Killerman99, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Kjramesh, Kku, Know or don;t, KnowledgeOfSelf, Koavf, Krawi, Kukini, Kuru, L Kensington, LAX, LOL, LOLamouse, LachlanA, Lahiru k, Landon1980, LeadSongDog, Leafyplant, LeaveSleaves, Leuko, Lights, Little Mountain 5, Lldenke, Llewelyn MT, Looxix, Lsi, Luk, Luna Santin, M00seo00o, MER-C, MGTom, MONGO, Mac, Mac Davis, Maddox1, Maethordaer, Magioladitis, Mak Thorpe, Mandarax, Mantator, Marcika, Marco Krohn, MarcoTolo, Marek69, Mariordo, MarkSutton, Martyjmch, Mary quite contrary, Materialscientist, Mathijs Romans, Matt Gies, Matthieu.berthome, Mav, Max Regor, Maxfrisch, Maxim Razin, Maxis ftw, 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non troppo, Pikiwyn, Pinkadelica, Plantsurfer, Plasticup, Player 03, Pleasantville, Politicslvr, Poopskins69, Portalian, Possum, Pranav.tewari, Prashanthns, Prester John, Princess belinda1994, Prlsmith, Prof77, Prolog, Provman, Psoreilly, Punctilius, PunkYoshi, Pyfan, Pll, Q Science, Qxz, RDBrown, RG104, RIS cody, RONL4950, Radon210, Ralf Schmelter, Random account 47, Raptor235, Raul654, RayMassey, Raymond arritt, Rd232, Rdsmith4, Real World, Refsworldlee, Rehman, Restepc, Rettetast, RexNL, Rhowes, Rich Farmbrough, Rjwilmsi, Rktect, Roberdin, Robert Jake Wilson, Rock nj, Rod57, Rodmom, Rodtrent, RolfSander, Rtdrury, Rtyq2, Rudjek, Ryulong, SEWilco, Sadlerjackmn, Salsb, Salvio giuliano, Sandman107, Sbandrews, Sceptre, SchfiftyThree, Scmarney, Seaphoto, SebastianHelm, Securiger, Selmo, Senator Palpatine, Sennaciulo, Sentience, Seraphim, Sewings, Sharonlees, Shaunus4, Shinkolobwe, Shoeofdeath, Shone69, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Short Brigade Harvester Boris (original), Showman60, 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File:The green house effect.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:The_green_house_effect.svg License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0 Contributors: ZooFari File:Atmospheric Transmission.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png License: unknown Contributors: Cepheiden, Christophe.Finot, Diwas, Dragons flight, Josette, Manuelt15, Mdd, Nagy, Santosga, Spacebirdy, WikipediaMaster, 4 anonymous edits Image:Mopitt first year carbon monoxide.jpg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Mopitt_first_year_carbon_monoxide.jpg License: Public Domain Contributors: Bignose, ChVA, Duesentrieb, Itu, Lamiot Image:Vostok Petit data.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Vostok_Petit_data.svg License: Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported Contributors: Vostok-ice-core-petit.png: NOAA derivative work: Autopilot (talk) Image:Carbon History and Flux Rev.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png License: unknown Contributors: Bignose, Dragons flight, Josette, Leyo, Liftarn, Nagy, Santosga, Stephan Schulz, 11 anonymous edits Image:Global Carbon Emissions.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg License: Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 3.0,2.5,2.0,1.0 Contributors: Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png: Mak Thorpe derivative work: Autopilot (talk) Image:Greenhouse Gas by Sector.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Greenhouse_Gas_by_Sector.png License: unknown Contributors: w:Dragons flightRobert A. Rohde Image:GHG per capita 2000.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg License: Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported Contributors: Vinny Burgoo Image:BAMS climate assess boulder water vapor 2002.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:BAMS_climate_assess_boulder_water_vapor_2002.png License: unknown Contributors: Bignose, Q Science, Toomuchcash, WikipediaMaster Image:CO2 increase rate.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_increase_rate.png License: Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported Contributors: New Image Uploader 929 (talk). Original uploader was New Image Uploader 929 at en.wikipedia Image:Major greenhouse gas trends.png Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png License: Public Domain Contributors: Ancient Anomaly, Bignose, DouglasGreen, Glenn, Joolz Image:GHG intensity 2000.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:GHG_intensity_2000.svg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: Vinny Burgoo Image:CO2 responsibility 1950-2000.svg Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg License: GNU Free Documentation License Contributors: Vinny Burgoo

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License
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